Friday, June 5, 2020

Iron Maggie. Brees and Shelby Steele. Market Scenarios?


While visiting the United Kingdom , Winnie Mandela was invited to a cocktail party which was to be attended also by Margaret Thatcher.

When Winnie saw the ex-prime minister on the other side of the room, she barged past everyone, spilling the drinks of several invited guests on the way.

Winnie elbowed her way to Maggie, stood brazenly in front of her and declared, "I hear they call you the Iron Lady!"

"I have been referred to by that name, yes," replied Maggie, peering down her nose at this impudent upstart"And whom, may I inquire, do I have the honour of addressing?" asked Maggie icily.

"I am the iron lady of South Africa!" bragged Winnie, waving her fist in the air.

"Oh, yes," replied Maggie dryly. "And for whom do you iron?"


In accord with my anti-PC style I chose to have fun at the expense of the Irish this time.

Buy American - Several of my very dear friends and fellow memo readers sent me e mails correcting my writing Breen? instead of Brees as the New Orleans Quarter Back I referred to in my recent memo. I did put a ? by Breen because I was not sure.

I am not your typical American male.  I do not watch professional football, though I love to watch Alabama Football, am not a big beer drinker and I do not barbecue on the grill. Yet, I call myself a deplorable because I think like one.

And:

If you are not acquainted with Shelby Steele, he is an American author and columnist, a Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institute who specializes in the study of race relations, multiculturalism and affirmative action.
As with Thomas Sowell , I love Shelby Steele because he talks straight but liberals/radicals are deaf to what they do not want to hear. https://video.foxnews.com/v/6162030807001/


  • Dr Shelby Steele says Black problems are not because of ...

    https://www.usmessageboard.com/threads/dr-shelby-steele-says-black-problems-are-not...
    Sep 03, 2018 · Dr Shelby Steele says Black problems are not because of Racism but because of freedom. ... accomplished American citizen Dr. Shelby Steele, Ph.D, ... large because we instituted it in public policy historically and continue to make public policies that exacerbate the problems," said report coauthor Catherine Ruetschlin, a senior policy ...
  • Shelby Steele has a lot to say about black society. He ...

    https://www.sfgate.com/entertainment/article/Shelby-Steele-has-a-lot-to-say-about...
    May 15, 2006 · Shelby Steele: “White Guilt: How Blacks & Whites Together Destroyed the Promise of the Civil Rights Era” reading. 7:30 p.m. Tuesday. Cody’s Books, …



  • Finally:

    No sooner than I mentioned, in a recent memo,  police departments should resign en-mass the same began to repeated and one actually occurred:

    Entire Buffalo Police Unit Resigns In Solidarity With Officers Suspended For Shoving Elderly Protester
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    I suspect there will be some legislation passed in order to pacify the black community and, unless cooler heads prevail among the political class, it will probably do more harm than good.

    President Johnson meant well, spent billions of dollars creating The Great Society and trillions have been spent afterwards and the problems of racial divide etc. still haunt our nation. (See Shelby Steele above.)

    Based on the nation's collective/demonstrated revulsion over Floyd's death one important thing has already happened.  People's hearts have changed and that is all good.  What is being done to address the tragedy is another matter.  Frankly, I am turned off by all I have witnessed and my empathy level has diminished.  I never bought into the "Black Lives Matter Organization" and what they were/are selling.

    I have a few black friends and I number among them Lt Col Allen West, Antwone Smoak, Star Parker, Keisha Ruth, Joe Ransom, Harvey Coleman and several others both female and male.  They are all productive citizens, have overcome what other black citizens have or failed to and I am proud to call them my friends.
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    I  recently commented  I thought the market was likely to begin a modest reaction and, obviously, I was wrong. Though I was mistaken about the market's near term direction , I have remained 90% invested because we live off the income from our stock portfolio.

    I believe there are two scenarios out there market-wise.

    While the market is making a V recovery, and I still believe the economy is going to show steady improvement, I am not persuaded it will be a V type. Therefore, at some point the market may get too far ahead of the recovery I see out there.  I do believe the economy has bottomed and the only thing that can bring it down substantially will be a severe recurrence of COVID 19.  Obviously an unexpected tragedy can never be ruled out in these volatile times and in this nation whose history is rife with such.

    The second scenario is riots may have overcome remaining reluctance on  the part of personal/small business ownership sector of the economy to open.  With thousands of protesters/rioters in the streets disregarding what medical personnel have asked us not to do, it is quite likely small business owners are motivated and anxious  to open their businesses, or those still viable, and this could strengthen and hasten the recovery.

    In either scenario, I believe the ensuing months will make good consecutive reading and 2021 will  continue the progress.  The key for the market's progress is how good future earnings will be in comparison with multiples of those earnings and cash flows.

    Another feature of this market is based on the volatile news and events that are providing the stimulating food source  for investors. This is a very impatient market that wants to get where it wants to go quickly.

    Politically the biggest problem for Trump is that black and other minority employment will lag because of two reasons:

    The riots devastated minority businesses that mostly hire minorities and COVID 19 devastated the service sector, ie. hotels, restaurants, leisure travel etc. where racial employment is relatively high and  will also make for a far slower recovery.

    Unemployment  still remains around 15%.
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    8:46 AM (0 minutes ago)

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