My oldest daughter, Debra.
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Buy American - Pray for America.
Sent to me buy a dear friend, fellow Marine and memo reader: I am posting it because I have some comments to make as well. This is attributed to Tim Allen:
From: Tim Allen:
Here are some interesting points to think about prior to 2020, especially to my friends on the fence, like moderate Democrats, Libertarians and Independents and the never Trump Republicans and those thinking of "walking away" from the Democratic party. Women are upset at Trump’s naughty words -- consider that they also bought 80 million copies of 50 Shades of Gray Not one feminist has defended Sarah Sanders. It seems women’s rights only matter if those women are liberal.
No Border Walls. No voter ID laws. Did you figure it out yet?
But wait, there's more. Chelsea Clinton got out of college and got a job at NBC that paid $900,000 per year, all the while, her mom flies around the country speaking out about white privilege.
And just like that, they went from being against foreign interference in our elections to allowing non-citizens to vote in our elections.
President Trump’s wall costs less than the Obamacare website. Let that one sink in, America.
We are one election away from open borders, socialism, gun confiscation, and full-term abortion nationally and more rioting.
We are fighting evil. They sent more troops and armament to arrest Roger Stone than they sent to defend our people in Benghazi.
We are fighting evil. They sent more troops and armament to arrest Roger Stone than they sent to defend our people in Benghazi.
60 years ago, Venezuela was 4th on the world economic freedom independence. Today, they are 179th and their citizens are dying of starvation. In only 10 years, Venezuela was destroyed by democratic socialism.
Russia donated $0 to Trump and his campaign. Russia donated $145,600,000 to the Clinton Foundation. But Trump was the one investigated!
Nancy Pelosi invited illegal aliens to the State of the Union. President Trump Invited victims of illegal alienst o the State of the Union. How about that?
A socialist is basically a communist who doesn’t have the power to take everything from their citizens at gunpoint ... yet!
A socialist is basically a communist who doesn’t have the power to take everything from their citizens at gunpoint ... yet!
How do you walk 3,000 miles across Mexico without food or support and show up at our border overweight and with a cellphone?
Alexandria Ocasio Cortez wants to ban cars, ban planes, give out universal income and thinks socialism works. She calls Donald Trump crazy.
Bill Clinton paid $850,000 to Paula Jones To get her to go away. I don’t remember the FBI raiding his lawyer’s office.
I wake up every day and I am grateful that Hillary Clinton is not the president of the United States of America.
The same media that told me Hillary Clinton had a 95% chance of winning now tells me Trump’s approval ratings are low.
“The problem with socialism is that sooner or later you run out of other people’s money”— Margaret Thatcher
Maxine Waters opposes voter ID laws; She thinks that they are racist. You need to have a photo ID to attend her town hall meetings .
President Trump said — "They’re not after me. They’re after you. I’m just in their way."
My thoughts:
The Floyd killing morphed into rioting and anarchism. Democrats are now using the past week's events to blame Trump so they can defeat him in 2020's election. The states and cities associated with most of the destruction have been governed by Democrats for decades - New York, California, Washington, Illinois, Washington D.C etc.. Most every significant political office in these states and cities has been held by Democrats. These are the same Democrats who had decades to correct conditions, did nothing and now cynically are using their own failed governance as an excuse to blame Trump.
The same can be said for Biden.
And Ben Stein writes:
And:
My thoughts:
The Floyd killing morphed into rioting and anarchism. Democrats are now using the past week's events to blame Trump so they can defeat him in 2020's election. The states and cities associated with most of the destruction have been governed by Democrats for decades - New York, California, Washington, Illinois, Washington D.C etc.. Most every significant political office in these states and cities has been held by Democrats. These are the same Democrats who had decades to correct conditions, did nothing and now cynically are using their own failed governance as an excuse to blame Trump.
The same can be said for Biden.
And Ben Stein writes:
My View of Looters
This is a great, great country.
by BEN STEIN
Now for a few words about the criminal looters, arsonists, and murderers — and the good people — of today:
1. Yes, of course black lives matter. But 99.9 percent of the blacks killed violently in this country are killed by other blacks. Very few are killed by the police. Let’s see the college boys and sexy upper-class white girls in their shorts demonstrate against the Crips and the Bloods. Let’s see the absolute idiot commentators on the news shows lambaste the gang-bangers. Of course they don’t because they’re chickens–t. They only march against people they know won’t harm them.
2. If black lives matter, let’s shut down the abortion mills, where the great plurality of human beings killed are black babies. Of course no one does that, because the abortionists and the Democrat party and the judges are all in bed with each other. No one hates black life more than the Democrat leadership, in my humble opinion, if we are to judge honestly by the numbers. Why isn’t anyone protesting against them and their abortuary pals?
3. Isn’t it interesting that the first stores the looters went after were super-high-end clothing and jewelry stores, shops far too expensive for me or my wife to go to, except for presents for close friends? Aren’t the looters supposed to be with the working class? Why didn’t they loot JCPenney or stores that sold work boots? Of course they want to look rich. They aspire to do that by stealing.
4. Have you noticed that the overwhelming mass of the looters shown on TV are black? The overwhelming mass of the protesters against “racial injustice” are white prosperous-looking young people. Who is missing? Asians. They don’t loot. They don’t riot. They study and they work. And they get ahead, and they live in nice houses and buy at the stores the looters steal from. Why is that? Could there be some Asian mystery gene that does that? If so, when the Asians take over here, as my late pal Bob Bartley told me, they will not show the kindness to looters and killers of other races that we guilty, stupid whites do. They will crack down like Lee Kuan Yew and like the South Koreans.
5. My favorite TV commentator is Tucker Carlson. He’s a genius. But even he got it wrong recently when he, a brilliant man, talked about “the system” trying to hoodwink the people by stirring up race hatred. That way, said Tucker, “the people” won’t notice how much the bosses are stealing from them. He’s partly right. The top bosses of public companies are wildly overpaid by us pitiful small stockholders. But that’s a tiny sum in the context of this economy. And who is stirring up race hatred? Not the bosses. The media commentators, Tucker. I have never seen or heard of a CEO stirring up race hatred. It’s the media that’s in the race hatred derby.
6. There is nothing systemically wrong with the USA. Not racial injustice. That was gone long ago. Not class warfare. That’s ancient history. This is a super great country. It’s good to anyone who is willing to acquire human capital in the form of education as lawyer, doctor, plumber, or electrician. If there is a problem, it’s the looters, murderers, and arsonists, and their pals in the media.
This is a great, great country, and if the media tells you different, they are lying. And the cops, 99 percent of them, are great people. Let’s thank them — not kick them for protecting us.
Finally:
And:
And:
What Have You Accomplished? Spoken by a Black Police Officer
You MUST watch this!
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Joel Ross rants again:
We are now dealing with a pandemic, the worst shutdown of the US economy and world economy in history, a new cold war with China, and now rioting and looting. Other than that Mrs. Lincoln how did you enjoy the show. One would have thought the stock market would be cratering again. It seems apparent that investors are focused on the future, and the money assumes Trump is reelected. If all of this does not negatively impact the stock market it is unclear what could. We have two take aways. Either the market is totally irrational, which it often is, or investors are betting that 20121 will be a very good year when much of this will be behind us with Corona being just another disease, the riots long over, a continuation of Trump deregulation and pro-business and the economy back on a positive growth trend.
For the moment I am in between and remain fully invested in US large cap equities. I take the market action to indicate that generally most investors feel confident we will overcome this period and return to growth. That being the case, for the moment I remain fully invested. My portfolio is up almost 5% over Dec 31 by just being patient and sticking with my investing philosophy of long term strong companies, and not quick profits on the latest ho9t stock of the week. Goldman and other pundits have now reversed their pessimistic forecasts and now seem to agree that the economy will recoup much faster than they predicted.
There is a huge difference between how Republicans attack a massive economic slowdown and the way Obama Biden did it. Obama had his make believe shovel ready $800 billion program of stimulus that spent pretty much zero on real infrastructure, and blew the rest. None went to consumers or small business. Trump gave consumers $1200 into their bank account directly and then excess unemployment direct to consumers, and then over 4 million small companies got $650 billion directly into their bank accounts. None of any of these programs were through government supposed to spend it inefficiently as in the Obama Biden program. There is no Solyndra which was a massive politically driven fraud. This is the difference between Republicans let the private sector decide how to spend the money, and Dems government knows best where to spend money policies. It is the taxpayers money so let them spend it themselves how they see fit. The Dems think it is their money.
38 states now have declining unemployment claims. There is a concentration of claims in Nevada, and the in the oil patch. The red states are opening much faster than blue states and this shows up in the claims numbers. The Midwest and some western states are rebounding much better as they reopen faster. MI being the standout example of bad decisions and harm to their economy as the governor makes continued stupid decisions. As time goes on the decisions made by red states as they rebound will be an obvious contrast with coastal blue states. The overall economy would rebound faster if the blue states would open faster. It will be interesting to see what happens with the virus now in places where the riots took place.
I believe the economy is going through a major transition, from basic ways to do business and live, to one in which technology is the dominant force and driver of growth. The pandemic and now riots, have simply greatly accelerated this trend by wiping out the weak old time companies like JC Penny, and seeing companies like Microsoft boom. Just look at which companies are thriving and which are dying. The big tech companies have giant cash loaded balance sheets, and little exposure to hard assets, and to a single market. Amazon and Wal Mart sell everything to anyone. They make it easy to buy from your couch. JC Penny never went for online and is dying. Netflix brought the movie theater to your living room. Verizon and Apple make it easy to talk to anyone anywhere, anytime, or to look up any kind of information about anything anytime.
As more young people enter the workforce and start companies, the faster technology will infuse into everything we do. AI is making everything from simple tasks to research move to a much higher quality place, and with incredible speed of the analytical powers. This is a huge accelerant of the US ability to lead the world in the future. The EU has only minimal abilities in technology compared to the US. Only China, and Israel are a competitor. The Arab world has none of this ability and will fall further and further behind Israel. China is the real threat to us. Russia simply does not have the financial nor population capacity to compete. What is key, is that it is the US is so far ahead of everyone other than Israel and China that they cannot catch up ever. That means inequality in the world only gets more pronounced and one day that will lead to some bad event. It is essential that the US continue to have minimal regulation and a very pro-business policy to encourage the technology sector to thrive and to have thousands of young people start new companies. Under Obama Biden new start-ups were very diminished. Under Trump they are booming. That tells you much of what is key to policies.
China has now stopped its agreed ag purchases of soybeans and hogs. Reality was they had not yet really made many large buys, so there was a question if they were ever going to fully abide by the agreement. Supposedly they have an adequate supply at the moment and they may buy more, but that is unclear now.
If you notice the protestors are all young college age for the most part. They learned all of this on campus where identity politics rules the day. They are taught we older white successful guys are all bad oppressors. Where are the protestors rallying against the 87 blacks who were shot in Chicago last weekend 21 of whom died. Did you hear about that on the mainstream media. Did anyone mourn the black guard who got murdered in a drive by in Oakland. Where is the sympathy for the shop owners, many of whom are blacks who invested their last penny in their shops, who are no wiped out by rioters. As bad as the cop was who killed Floyd, the rioters who destroyed the lives of black shop owners are almost as bad.
If there is no law and order, there is no functional society, there is just anarchy which is impossible to allow to exist. The constitution guarantees me life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. I am being denied that by the looters, and the refusal of Dem leaders in cities and states who failed to act. In NYC the 700 looters who were arrested were almost immediately released due to the bail reform law of Cuomo and the Dems. The government has an obligation to keep me safe. If the mayors like DeBozzo do not protect me, and if the governor will not do what is needed, then the president has an obligation to act. It is a fact that destroyed shopping areas in riots do not come back for 10 years or more. Communities that get burned and stores destroyed just create more poverty and drug use, and more crime, which then makes life worse for poor blacks.
That then leads to Dems demanding more wasteful cash for the area. When Trump chastises governors for being reluctant to act, he is doing the job he is there to do, bring law and order and peaceful streets. I am tired of hearing from pandering CEO’s and Hollywood, we need to come together, cops need to be retrained, or we need to do more for blacks. A black guy became president and one became AG. And the result was worse race relations. More identity politics. And now we have a replay of 1968 as a result. Where are they demanding an end to the looting of their own stores. It is all really about culture. 70% of black kids are born to unwed mothers. No father in the house. Bad schools because disruptive kids are not tossed out. Charter schools are made to jump through hoops to get started denying the kids from a better education so the union can collect more dues to contribute to idiots like DeBozzo. One cop in Minneapolis did an awful thing, but the other 800,000 cops in the US are not him. 80 cops died last year, nine blacks got shot who were unarmed. 40 whites who were unarmed were shot. 19 blacks died last weekend and 80 were shot in Chicago who were shot by other blacks. A 75 year old retied black police captain doing security at a pawn shop was murdered by looters. Where were the protestors, politicians or media on that. As I said with the virus-we need to look at reality and proportionality.
I was stunned this week when the CEO of BET Networks said we need a $41 Trillion reparations payment to all 44 million blacks. He has lost his mind. He went on to claim Germany paid reparations to Jews. Not true. Is he really trying to equate the holocaust with slavery or blacks in the US today. That is bizarre. We need politicians, CEOs, and the media to get some perspective. There is no comparison between the opportunities blacks have today vs even 20 years ago and surely vs 50 years ago. It is up to everyone to decide to make something of themselves or not. Blacks are no different. Thousands of holocaust survivors went on to lead successful lives. There is nothing experienced by blacks that is remotely similar. Thousands of poor Asians go on to be highly successful in school even when they go to lower quality public schools in NYC. When I was young, Jews were badly discriminated against in jobs and where we could live. I just was determined to be a success in spite of that. I got myself educated and worked hard to succeed in life. All you get in life is an opportunity to fail, or not, and then it is up to you to make it or not.
Oprah, Ben Carson and other blacks grew up in terrible conditions, but they made it to the top without government subsidies or help. So can everyone else, just like many of my white friends have done who also came from nothing, It is all up to the individual not the government or corporations. Now Asians and white males will be subjected to even more discrimination in college admissions and getting hired so everyone can feel like they are “doing the right thing” to help blacks. Merit has just suffered a huge further setback. New anger will build up and more lawsuits by Asians will happen. Someone other than Amy Wax and Heather MacDonald needs to stand up and say- it is culture and self-responsibility, not more government programs and not more discrimination against white males and Asians.
Statements by Obama and Biden and others that police are inherently racist is disgraceful, and that rhetoric is what has led to the extent of protests of today, and the rhetoric of the press and others. It is suddenly the in thing to say that there needs to be “change” etc. It was meant to inject anti-cop views into the news and into universities, and has now permeated corporations. It is simply not true. I am certain there are racist cops, but so are there racist people everywhere. Just as there are black who hate whites, and just as universities discriminate against white and Asian males in admissions. There is no such thing anywhere as total absence of discrimination in some way no matter the nation or ethnic group. Does not make it right, but does make it reality that blacks have no corner on the discrimination market.
Almost all major US cities now have either black mayors, and or black chiefs of police and many black cops. The black police chiefs were supposed to be the difference. Yet the rhetoric has not changed. The facts are that most cops do not discriminate, and 60% of robberies and 53% of murders are committed by blacks which is why prisons have so many black inmates. There were 1004 people shot by cops in 2019. Only 35% were black. Cops made 375 million contacts with the public in 2018, and only a few ended badly. Only 9 unarmed blacks were shot by cops in 2019, and we do not know the reason they were shot which may have been justified in some cases. That is down from 38 in 2015. There were 7400 homicides of blacks in 2018. Most were murdered by other blacks. Cops shot 9 unarmed blacks, and of that number there was a reason of a firearm being present.
On Monday night five cops were shot. Where is the press or mayoral outrage. The criminals made it so, not the cops. Black leaders and left wing mayors and governors need to show leadership and support cops, and dispel the Obama, Biden, Holder anti-cop rhetoric. There are the usual demands for police reform and control panels etc. Fact- as cities clamp down on cops undertaking legal steps and reducing interactions with the public, crime goes up materially. Baltimore is a clear proof. After there was so called reforms murders skyrocketed. In NYC as DeBozzo and Cuomo put in bail reform, crime has skyrocketed.
The media shouted that the police used tear gas to clear protestors from Lafayette Park. The Bishop of the church claimed the same all over TV. It was a lie. The media just jumped on that story without ever asking the cops what was used and why were they moved out. There is nothing the mass media says today that can be believed- Russia collusion, tear gas, Flynn, and many more things. They are doing grave damage to democracy by failing to do their job and becoming propaganda machines for the anti-Trumpers. Even if you hate Trump, this should upset you. Biden gave a speech, but he had 8 years to fix the issues, but made it worse. I think a lot of blacks now get it.
Dem governors demanded you cannot go to the beach, a restaurant, haircut nor the doctor, because it was dangerous due to virus. But they encourage you to go out in massive crowds to protest. Someone explain that to me.
College students who post something on social media that is not in line with politically correct about the protests or riots are being punished by their school for exercising their free speech rights today. Apparently the schools monitor the social media in some way. FIRE, a non-profit devoted to free speech on campus, has been buried by calls from students who are being punished for online posts. If you wondered how bad the stopping of free speech really is on campus, this is it. Fall semester on campus is going to be dreadful for any student who does not condemn cops and Trump. This may help explain the rhetoric you hear these days in the press and the protests.
The hotel industry is about to go thru massive changes. Brands may stop being managers due to the potential for liability issues arising from the shut-down. Managers control the bank account. Who gets sued for unpaid bills. Did they comply with the Warren Act rules on advance notice of layoffs. Who gets hired back first. Some places have laws you need to hire the most senior first. Who owes the unpaid wages if there are some. Who covers vacation accrued pay. Were systems properly maintained during closed periods. Who is responsible for inserting more working capital to restart and to pay for the things some places need to do for social distancing and cleaning. Who replaces the cap ex reserves if they were used to pay debt. Who will employ the staff in future-now it is the manager. Maybe they no longer want to be the employer. How do you forecast from here. Balance sheet lenders are being very conciliatory and CMBS lenders as well in some cases.
The reason is there are no real buyers yet for foreclosed hotels. There is lots of money to chase deals, but the lawyers have made it clear the potential liabilities with hotels is huge. Nobody has any idea how fast or slow the hotel recovery will be. There is no price discovery yet. What cap rate di you use on what NOI projection. So everyone is taking a breather for 90 days to try to determine how to forecast what will be the situation in 6 or 9 months. There is universal agreement that big convention hotels are in long term trouble. Select service and extended stay are in much better position as are drive to shore front resorts. Bottom line is nobody has any idea what to do yet, so almost no deals are happening other than a few special situations. There are no lenders now, and CMBS is far away from restarting. So buyers are all equity which makes offers very low. There is some rescue capital, but it will be expensive-10%-14%. There is action in the note market with mezz and UCC foreclosure paper.
We are months away from any real transaction volume when things will be more clear and when the whole liability issue will possibly more clear. It is likely values will be down 30% or more when transactions do restart. The entire industry will be permanently repriced down for years to come. Capex will be suspended for years as it was in 2009, but that just delays the day of reckoning for cash needs. What was a 7%or 8% cap rate is much more likely to become 11%-12% for a long time. I have never thought owning a hotel is a good investment compared to alternatives if you are an investor. Now I have the proof of why. Black swans are always circling hotels. I was heavily criticized in the aftermath of 2008-9 when I harped on the black swan risk. Here you have it in spades. There is far more risk adjusted returns to be made in the stock market, or other real estate assets such as multi-family, and risk adjusted returns is all that matters in investing.
If there is no major increase in the virus in two weeks after all the protests, it will prove my point that young healthy people are not at much risk, and the shutdown everywhere was a mistake.
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