Thursday, December 30, 2021

My Prediction. Hanson Right Again. Where Is Trump? Welcome To America.

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I am writing this on December 30th and it will be posted about a month from now.

There are those who are sending me New Year Greetings saying '22 cannot be worse than '21 and other such comments.

I believe, as long as Biden is president, along with Kamala, there is little hope things will improve . Maybe we will experience a shift in issue focus and Covid conditions will lessen as well as supply chain impediments but the matter of potential conflicts should heighten, China will continue it's programs of theft and bullying along with strong armed meddling throughout the world. Also, inflation should continue to rise and erode the purchasing power of the dollar. Then there is Putin and his alignment with China  and Israel cannot tolerate a nuclear Iran.

Biden's mental condition will not improve and Kamala's abilities will certainly remain challenged so I do not believe, at this time, '22 will necessarily be better than '21, just a shift in the nature of the problems impacting world events.

If we avoid a recession and the mid year elections oust Democrat control of The House and Senate the prospects for domestic political improvement could reinforce gridlock and that might be beneficial. Since government generally fails at what it seeks to accomplish a stifled government could be preferable to an active one.  Certainly Republicans will do more to seal our borders.

Time will tell.  It always does.

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Hanson nails it once again.  The "sniveling generation."

The Ungracious—and Their Demonization of the Past

By Victor Davis Hanson 

Never in history has such a mediocre, but self-important and ungracious generation owed so much, and yet expressed so little gratitude to its now dead forebears.

The last two years have seen an unprecedented escalation in a decades-long war on the American past.

But there are lots of logical flaws in attacking prior generations in U.S. history.

Critics assume their own judgmental generation is morally superior to those of the past. So, they use their own standards to condemn the mute dead who supposedly do not measure up to them.

Yet 21st century critics rarely acknowledge their own present affluence and leisure owe much to history’s prior generations whose toil helped create their current comfort.

And what may future scolds say of the modern generation that saw over 60 million abortions since Roe v. Wade, even as fetal viability outside the womb continued to progress to ever earlier ages?

What will our grandchildren say of us who dumped on them over $30 trillion in national debt—much of it as borrowing for entitlements for ourselves?


What sort of society snoozes as record numbers of murders continue in 12 of its major cities? What is so civilized about defunding the police, endemic smash-and-grab thefts, and car-jackings?

Was our media more responsible, professional, and learned in 1965 or 2021? Did Hollywood make more sophisticated and enjoyable films in 1954 or 2021? Was there less or more sportsmanship among professional athletes in 1990 or 2021?

Was it actually moral to discard the “content of our character” and “equal opportunity” principles of the prior Civil Rights movement of 60 years ago? Are their replacement fixations on the “color of our skin” and “equality of result” superior?

Would America have won World War II with the current labor participation rate of only six Americans in 10 working? Would our generation have brought all American troops home and quit World War I, in fear of the deadly 1918 Spanish flu pandemic?

Are we proud that most standardized tests of student knowledge and achievement continue to decline, despite record investments in education? 

Do we ever pause to consider that we enjoy our modern standard of living, and security because we were once a meritocracy that quit judging our workforce by tribal affinities and ancient prejudices?

Our generation talks of infrastructure nonstop. But when was the last time it built anything comparable to Hoover Dam, the interstate highway system, or the California Water Project—much less sent a man back to the moon or beyond?

If prior generations were so toxic, why do we continue to take for granted the moral and material world they bequeathed to us, from the Constitution and the Bill of Rights to our airports, freeways, and power plants? Did we ever defeat anything comparable to the Axis powers or Soviet communism?

We know the symptoms of the current epidemic of hating the past.

One is Orwellian renaming and statue-toppling. Historical revision often responds to puritanical mob frenzies rather than to democratic discussion and votes of relevant elected officials.

Where is the pantheon of woke heroes who will replace the toppled or defaced Thomas Jefferson and Teddy Roosevelt?

Whose morality and achievement should instead be immortalized? Were the public and private lives of Che Guevara, Angela Davis, Malcolm X, Margaret Sanger, and Franklin D. Roosevelt without sin?

Racial fixations tend predictably in one direction. In good Confederate fashion, we lump all individuals who look alike into inexact collectives of “white,” “black,” or “brown”—often to stereotype the supposed evils of so-called white supremacy.

But if we go down that tribalist and simplistic road of caricatured oppressors and oppressed, will future generations tally up each group’s merits and demerits, to adjudicate the roles of millions of individuals in making America worse or better?

What standard would they use to judge our ignorant world of racial stereotyping—proportional representation in Nobel Prizes, philanthropy, scientific breakthroughs, or lasting art, music, and literature versus statistics on homicides, assault, divorce, and illegitimacy? 

Immigration—when legal, diverse, measured, and often meritocratic—has been the great strength of America, as typified by industrious arrivals who chose to abandon their own homeland to risk new lives in a foreign United States.

But if America is so flawed and so irredeemable, why in fiscal year 2021 are nearly 2 million foreigners now crashing its borders—illegally, en masse, and intent on reaching a supposedly racist nation that is purportedly inferior to those they abandon?

According to the ancient brutal bargain, assimilation and integration grant the immigrant as much claim to America’s present and past as the native born. But then shouldn’t the antithesis also be true? Shouldn’t immigrants at least respect those of the past who created the very country they now so eagerly desire, and died in awful places from Valley Forge to Bastogne to preserve?

Never in history has such a mediocre, but self-important and ungracious generation owed so much, and yet expressed so little gratitude, to its now dead forebears. 

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Where is Trump? Joe was right, we neither need government nor him.

Is Fluvoxamine the Covid Drug We’ve Been Waiting For?

A 10-day treatment costs only $4 and appears to greatly reduce symptoms, hospitalization and death.

By Finley


Photo: Alamy Stock Photo

The Food and Drug Administration last week authorized two oral antiviral medicines for the early treatment of Covid-19. But don’t get too excited. The U.S. will still have a meager treatment arsenal this winter.

The U.S. has been relying on monoclonal-antibody treatments, but most don’t hold up against the Omicron variant. One, by GlaxoSmithKline and Vir Biotechnology, does better at neutralizing the variant, but supply is limited. Pfizer’s newly authorized antiviral pack Paxlovid will also have to be rationed. There will be more of Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics’ newly authorized antiviral, molnupiravir, but patients may be reluctant to take the drug. Some scientists worry it could cause DNA mutations in people, though the FDA determined that the likelihood of this was low when used on a short-term basis.

Yet a promising alternative isn’t getting its due: fluvoxamine, a pill the FDA approved in 1994 to treat obsessive-compulsive disorders. Doctors often prescribe it off-label for anxiety, depression and panic attacks. Studies show that fluvoxamine is highly effective at preventing hospitalization in Covid-infected patients, and it’s unlikely to be blunted by Omicron.

Doctors hypothesize that fluvoxamine can trigger a cascade of reactions in cells that modulate inflammation and interfere with virus functions. It could thus prevent an overreactive immune response to pathogens—what’s known as a cytokine storm—that can lead to organ failure and death. It also increases nighttime levels of melatonin—the hormone that makes you sleepy—which evidence suggests can also mitigate inflammation.

While experimenting with mice in 2019, researchers at the University of Virginia discovered that fluvoxamine could be an effective treatment for sepsis, or blood-borne infection. A large study in France during the early months of the pandemic found that Covid-19 patients treated with selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors such as fluvoxamine were significantly less likely to be intubated or to die.

A small randomized control trial last year by psychiatrists at the Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis was a spectacular success: None of the 80 participants who started fluvoxamine within seven days of developing symptoms deteriorated. In the placebo group, six of the 72 patients got worse, and four were hospitalized. The results were published in November 2020 in the Journal of the American Medical Association and inspired a real-world experiment.

Soon after the study was published, there was a Covid outbreak among employees at the Golden Gate Fields horse racing track in Berkeley, Calif. The physician at the track offered fluvoxamine to workers. After 14 days, none of the 65 patients who took it were hospitalized or still had symptoms. Of the 48 who didn’t take the drug, six, or 12.5%, were hospitalized and one died. Twenty-nine had lingering symptoms, which might have resulted from inflammatory damage to their organs. Those who took the placebo were more likely to be asymptomatic when they tested positive, so they would have been expected to fare better.

The studies drew the attention of Francis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health. “A big need right now is for a drug that you could take by mouth, that you could be offered as soon as you had a positive test, and that would reduce the likelihood that the virus is going to make you really sick,” he said in an interview with “60 Minutes” in March. “Fluvoxamine could certainly be something you want to put in the tool chest,” Dr. Collins added. “It looks as if it has the promise to reduce the likelihood of severe illness.”

Researchers at McMaster University in Hamilton, Ontario, last winter launched a large clinical trial in Brazil. The results from their trial, published in the Lancet in October, were stunning: Fluvoxamine reduced the odds of hospitalization or emergency care by 66% and death by 90% among unvaccinated high-risk patients who mostly followed the treatment regimen—comparable to monoclonal antibodies. There was no difference in adverse effects between the fluvoxamine and placebo groups.

The three fluvoxamine trials were conducted while different variants were circulating, so there’s no reason to think the drug wouldn’t work as well against Omicron. A 10-day course of fluvoxamine costs $4, compared with the $2,100 the U.S. government has been paying for monoclonal antibodies, and $530 to $700 for a course of the Pfizer and Merck treatments. Multiple drugmakers manufacture fluvoxamine and could ramp up supply without much difficulty were demand to increase.

While the FDA doesn’t need to grant fluvoxamine emergency-use authorization for doctors to prescribe it, some may be reluctant to do so unless the NIH recommends it in its Covid-19 treatment guidelines. Physicians have been investigated by state medical boards for prescribing the antiparasite ivermectin off-label for Covid-19.

The NIH states that “there is insufficient evidence . . . to recommend either for or against the use of fluvoxamine for the treatment of COVID-19.” It wants evidence from another large clinical trial. Yet the U.S. is recording nearly as many deaths from Covid-19 today as when Dr. Collins made his statement in March. If the NIH doesn’t budge, states could enact laws that protect doctors who prescribe fluvoxamine, They could also order doses to administer to patients, which would cost little but could save many lives.

Ms. Finley is a member of the Journal’s editorial board.

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We have never had such a crew of incompetent blow hard politicians leadnig this nation since "The Tea Pot Dome Crowd."


When you dumb down and entire nation's population you can suck them in or intimidate them to accept just about anything as the truth. Facts no longer matter and therein lies the newly created soft underbelly of this nation. Furthermore, when a nation's mass media is more interested in entertainment than reporting truths and align themselves with a single party, in order to gain more clout,  it is only a matter of time before that former free  society collapses. 


Welcome to America.

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The Establishment Wants to Crush You Uppity Peasants

By Kurt Schlichter

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Last Season’s Hateful Misinformation Is Today’s Brilliant Point in the Media

By Brad Slager

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Elizabeth Warren's one-trick inflation pony

By Jeff Jacoby

If corporate greed is Senator Elizabeth Warren's one-size-fits-all explanation for why prices go up, how does she explain why they go down?


PRICES IN the United States are rising faster than they have in decades. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this month that inflation was up 6.8 percent over the past year, the steepest annual increase in consumer prices since 1982.

There is no mystery about why inflation is exploding: Prices spike when too many dollars are chasing too few goods. The federal government has massively increased spending over the past two years in the name of economic stimulus and COVID-19 relief: too many dollars. At the same time, the pandemic's upheaval has led to a global labor shortage and snarled supply chains, preventing commodities of every description from being produced or from reaching vendors: too few goods.

The result is straight out of Economics 101: Everything is more expensive.

But Senator Elizabeth Warren has a different theory. She insists prices are being pushed up not by anything as impersonal as supply and demand, but by greedy business executives.

"Prices at the pump have gone up," she told an MSNBC interviewer last month. "Why? Because giant oil companies like Chevon and ExxonMobil enjoy doubling their profits. This isn't about inflation. This is about price gouging."

Warren had the same explanation for why turkey has become so expensive: "plain old corporate greed." She demanded a Justice Department investigation, accusing poultry companies on Nov. 23 of "abusing their market power" by "giving CEOs raises & earning huge profits."

The next day she widened her indictment from the poultry department to every department.

"Wondering why your Thanksgiving groceries cost more this year?" Warren tweeted. "It's because greedy corporations are charging Americans extra just to keep their stock prices high."

It's more costly to rent a car these days. That too, says Warren, is caused by capitalist greed.

In a letter to the CEO of Hertz, Warren blasted the company for being "happy to reward executives, company insiders, and big shareholders" with stock buybacks, "while stiffing consumers with record-high rental car costs."

Wherever prices are rising, Warren fingers the same culprit: rapacious corporations. Like Henry Ford, who would sell customers a Model T car in any color they wanted as long as it was black, the senator from Massachusetts will gladly explain why any product has become more expensive, as long as the explanation involves greedy businesses out to make more money.

It is true, of course, that corporations continually look for ways to increase their profits. That's how they survive. The reason businesses exist in the first place is to supply goods or services to customers and make money doing so. If companies can't turn a profit, they eventually go out of business and no longer sell those goods or services.

But if corporate greed is Warren's one-size-fits-all explanation for why prices go up, how does she explain why they go down?

Consider gasoline. In the spring of 2020, the average price of gasoline plunged to less than $1.90 a gallon. Why didn't Chevron and ExxonMobil do then what Warren claims they are doing now — gouge customers to boost profits? The answer is that prices aren't driven by all-powerful capitalists capable of "doubling their profits" at will. Last spring, the pandemic and its attendant worldwide lockdowns caused a drastic cut in demand, which led in turn to a sharp fall in prices — so sharp, in fact, that the oil industry suffered an unprecedented crash. In 2020, the five largest oil companies (ExxonMobil, BP, Shell, Chevron, and Total) lost a combined $76 billion. Then, when the economy recovered and the demand for oil grew faster than the inventories available to meet it, prices soared.

Inflation in the US is at its highest level since 1981. Does Sen. Warren believe that, after decades of stable prices, corporate America was suddenly gripped by insatiable greed?

In the world according to Warren, every unwelcome spike in prices is the result of a conspiracy to put the screws to consumers, while every dramatic price reduction is an irrelevancy. In the real world, market forces, not corporate villainy, explain why prices fluctuate. And "market forces" go far beyond decisions made by a handful business leaders in C-suites. They comprise choices made by tens of thousands of producers and vendors, as well as millions of consumers.

Inflation isn't on the march because, after decades of stable prices, corporate America was suddenly seized by a wave of greed. It's a ridiculous theory, but it's the one Warren is sticking to. So she plays the corporate-greed card over and over, like a relative repeating the same dreary party trick at every family gathering. Meanwhile prices keep rising, and voters are less and less amused.

(Jeff Jacoby is a columnist for The Boston Globe).

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Wednesday, December 29, 2021

It Is Not Diversity. Nuclear Fusion Link. Why You Have Every Right To Despise Government. Latham Saddler, My Candidate. Meet Him!

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                                           https://youtube.com/watch?v=v6H2HmKDbZA&feature=share

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I do not believe it is diversity.  I believe it is insecurity and ignorance.

Why does ‘diversity’ have to lead to anti-Semitism?

Study shows that despite the anodyne job title, woke politics and intersectionality can lead college diversity officers to play a role making campuses a hostile environment for Jews.


By JONATHAN S. TOBIN

(December 29, 2021 / JNS) One of the obsessions of the modern workplace as well as contemporary college campuses is the need to achieve and promote diversity. In theory, diversity is a noble goal to pursue. We all gain from being exposed to different types of people from a variety of backgrounds. And though the racial discrimination that was commonplace only 60 years ago throughout much of American society is no longer even a dim memory for anyone not approaching retirement age, efforts to ensure that racial, ethnic and religious minorities have a fair chance of being hired for jobs or admitted to schools are, in principle, commendable.

Nowadays diversity is not so much an idea as an industry. For example, the average university in the United States employs approximately 45 people whose duties are to promote what is commonly referred to as the DEI agenda — diversity, equity and inclusions. That this involves so many jobs at a time when many institutions of higher learning are facing cutbacks, is telling about the growth in the number of those involved in this endeavor. The same is true for arts organizations that are on life support due to the pandemic but continue to create positions for highly paid diversity officers.

But, as the use of the term “equity” rather than equality, which refers to seeking to even out outcomes rather than ensuring that everyone has a fair chance, indicates, those so employed have goals that are something different than merely fighting discrimination or encouraging practices rooted in the principle of equal opportunity. Instead, it has become a bastion of woke ideology which interprets the term “diversity” to mean a dedication to promoting the interests of certain designated protected groups that are designated as disadvantaged or victims regardless of the circumstances of the individuals involved.

Just as important, it is adamantly opposed to diversity when it comes to ideas, with those who oppose left-wing politics and the way the activist class seeks to politicize everything, being treated as pariahs. To oppose fashionable liberal stands on the issues of the day or to even admit to skepticism about the need to inject race into every subject and to have it define everything we are and do is to risk being canceled in some industries and throughout academia.

That this is so is not exactly a secret, which is why those who work in higher education or in certain sectors like the arts, mainstream media organizations, popular entertainment or most publishing outlets, who resist acceptance of the leftist catechism or who are actually conservatives or even vote Republican must keep this quiet, lest they find themselves cut off from any hope of promotion or acceptance.

Yet rather than these worries being limited to those who subscribe to heretical conservative principles, inevitably the rule of the woke involves concerns for Jews. And that is the context in which a new study conducted by scholars at The Heritage Foundation about those who are in the diversity business and how they regard Israel and Jews.

What the study found was alarming but not particularly surprising. A look at the opinions of DEI staff at 65 American universities revealed that they had disproportionately negative attitudes towards Israel and Jewish issues. While, as the study concedes, thinking ill of Israel isn’t necessarily the same thing as being an active anti-Semite, the connection isn’t tenuous.

The method used by the researchers is not what we’re used to when we refer to statistical studies. Rather than interviews with their subjects, Heritage scholars looked at their Twitter accounts. While that may sound unorthodox or even lacking in academic rigor, it actually makes sense. What people tell pollsters on the phone or even those involved in more in-depth studies is often more a matter of how they wish to be viewed than what they actually think or believe.

But for good or for ill — and we know it has mostly been for ill as social media has become the engine driving our political and social culture into the sewer — those who tweet tend to say what they think and do it in an unfiltered manner that most of those on the site would never employ in person. As such, for all of its incivility, it provides as good — if not better — a look at a public opinion as many traditional methods for gauging public opinion.

And what the researchers found when they examined the Twitter accounts of 741 diversity officers was that the subjects tweeted a great deal about Israel. Indeed, when matched against their interest in China, a country which has 1.4 billion people to Israel’s 9 million and which has an equally greater impact on America’s economy, the diversity crew was three times more likely to tweet about Israel. Though Israel is a topic that is often in the news, including the fighting with Hamas terrorists in May, it’s not as if China has been out of the news in the last year. It was, after all, the source of the coronavirus pandemic. Recently, Beijing has sought to undermine the last vestiges of democracy in Hong Kong and openly threatened Taiwan with invasion. There is also the matter of an ongoing genocide being perpetrated by the Communist regime against the Uighurs. But your average college diversity person was still more interested in Israel. And fully 96 percent of their tweets about Israel were critical of it while only 62 percent of the far fewer comments about the world’s largest tyranny were negative.

Of those comments about Israel, predictably, those accusing it of committing “apartheid” or “settler colonialism” — a term that in the woke world refers to all Jews living there and not just those in the West Bank and which also indicates a belief that the Jewish state has no right to exist — abound. Some even include libelous charges, such as the accusation that Israel is committing “genocide” against Palestinian Arabs (whose population has grown exponentially in the century during which they have been fighting the return of the Jews to their ancient homeland) or “ethnic cleansing.” Some used the phrase “from the river to the sea” — an expression synonymous with the destruction of Israel.

Criticism of Israeli policies isn’t anti-Semitic. But it’s not a stretch to say that those who think one Jewish state on the planet is one too many or who believe only Jews should be deprived of the right of self-determination or self-defense or who spread false charges meant to delegitimize Israel and to similarly silence or shun its Jewish supporters, are engaging in anti-Semitism.

So when we take a hard look at the views of a representative sample of diversity officers at American universities who are on Twitter we can see that a lot of them are anti-Semitic or, at the very least, not adverse to public expressions of opinions that are incompatible with opposition to Jew-hatred.

Moreover, as the authors of the study noted in an article published in Newsweek, examples of those involved in diversity actively engaged in anti-Semitism are easy to find. A Yale Law School diversity officer told students that she “didn’t recognize that there could be anti-Semitism against white people.” The diversity committee of Stanford University’s counseling services held trainings in which staff members asserted that because “Jews, unlike other minority groups, possess privilege and power, Jews and victims of Jew-hatred do not merit or necessitate the attention of the DEI committee.”

What this shows is that a disproportionate number of those involved in this field are so influenced by intersectionality — which wrongly treats the Palestinian war to destroy Israel as somehow morally equivalent to the struggle for civil rights in the United States — that they treat attacks on the Jewish state and Jews as somehow morally justified or even laudable. The diversity industry is so lacking in diversity with respect to ideas that they regard the casual negation of Jewish rights or open anti-Semitic incitement with indifference if not approval.

Nor is this trend limited only to diversity officers in academia. Kamau Bobb, who was named as Google’s global lead for diversity strategy and research in 2018 was revealed as having engaged in his own anti-Semitic rants on Twitter and was “reassigned” though not fired by what is arguably the world’s most powerful and influential company.

While just one part of the big picture in which woke ideology is transforming our society for the worse, the role that diversity officers are playing in mainstreaming anti-Semitism can’t be underestimated. Nor should we ignore this factor when seeking to understand why anti-Semitic incidents are growing on American college campuses, most often as part of efforts to libel Israel or to silence Jewish students.

It isn’t merely ironic that a group of people who are supposedly dedicated to inclusion seem to think that sensitivity to Jewish sensibilities or even opposition to expressions of anti-Semitism is optional or completely unnecessary. It’s a disturbing sign of just how toxic leftist ideology has become and why the struggle against the woke is of particular importance to those who care about Jewish security.

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Sent by a friend and fellow memo reader who attended the meeting on nuclear fusion at our home about a month ago. 


Interesting.

https://gizmodo.com/will-nuclear-fusion-ever-power-the-world-1848149991%3Futm_medium=sharefromsite%26utm_source=_email&utm_campaign=top

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This is why you should lose faith in government. Democrats want you to stop being rational.

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I always vote for the candidate I believe is best suited for the job and that is why I generally have few candidates I back win. Sadly, voters do not always vote for the best but are likely to have other reasons that motivate them.

Georgia has a history of electing outstanding Senators, as I have noted before.  It is tragic for this state to be represented by someone like Rev. Warnock.  He will never amount to much as a Senator, nor will he ever rise to any heights in his own party.  

I have nothing against Herschel Walker.  He seems like a decent person and certainly was an outstanding athlete but, here again, I do not see him worthy of being a Senator who will rise within the Republican Party. Trump is supporting him because they have been close friends for decades but other than an outstanding football player, black and name recognition I do not see him as being a potential Senator possessing  vast knowledge and experience.

I am supporting Lathrop  and if you read his credentials, meet him  and he can get enough opportunity to appear before a vast number of Georgians he has a real shot at being the nominee best suited to be a Senator.

Latham is articulate, rationale, obviously an accomplished and experienced person,. His main problems are he is white and unknown but Latham intends to do what most Republicans fail to do.  He is going to campaign throughout the state and if the black community is smart they will give him a fair hearing.

They have nothing to lose since they have been suckered by hypocrite Democrats for decades.

As a former Seal he shoots straight from the shoulder and having served on The President's Commission on White House Fellows I know something about the military talent that presents themselves for the committee's rigorous scrutiny. 

If the opportunity presents itself to meet Latham do yourself a favor and do so.  I hope to be able to have a fund raiser for him circumstances permitting.  You will not be disappointed and I  suspect, you will come away saying WOW!.  Everyone I have urged to meet him have changed their minds..
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MEET LATHAM

In his freshman dorm at the University of Georgia, Latham Saddler watched planes fly into the Twin Towers on Sept. 11, 2001. He decided that day that he’d find a way to serve his country. Latham would go on to serve our nation as a Navy SEAL Officer and as Director of Intelligence in the Trump White House. Now, he is ready to serve our country and all Georgians in the United States Senate.


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Happy, Healthy New Year's


































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"Deplorables/Neanderthals" allowed themselves to become intimidated by radical progressives and America went down the drain.

2022 will be a decisive year because either we begin to retrieve our nation and return it to some semblance of greatness or it will probably be lost forever. 

The Woke people have taken over and it is time for those who care to awaken.

I am going for hip replacement surgery January 5th and I have written about 10 days of memos which will be posted and forwarded during my absence.

Between now and then we are taking Dagny and Blake back home Thursday, watching football games and returning to Savannah on Saturday.

I wish you The Happiest, Healthiest and Best Ever of New Years.
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Ross Rants:



Maybe the Dems will find some bit or piece of BBB to do with Manchin, but I think in the end there will be nothing or nothing major. They are determined to pass the child care portion, but the true cost is $1.6 trillion, and there is no way Manchin will agree to anything like that. Manchin is so far from the radicals that I just do not see how they can do any piece of legislation they can both agree on. He won't agree to spend the level of money they demand, and he requires a work requirement the left refuses to agree to. He wants any payments only going to the poor, the radicals are trying to set up guaranteed minimum income to the middle class. He requires the costs be the full ten years measure, not the fraud the left was trying to con the voters with. Then there is how to pay for all this, and there is no acceptable answer to Sinema nor to Manchin. There are also loads of far left items in BBB that he will not go along with. There will be lots of talk, but in the end probably no major action. There will be no tax increase on corporations, nor on most of the rest of us. There will be an attempt to use executive actions which likely will end up in court and be stopped. The plan to force a vote as Schumer intends is insane for Dems. It would force vulnerable Dems to vote publicly, and put themselves in trouble in November. BBB is filled with all sorts of hidden socialist and left wing garbage, and that will not survive. Are you aware it has a subsidy to journalists-yes, paying (bribing) a portion of journalists salaries. Instead of sitting with Republicans to try to find a good way forward that can sell, the Dems and White House think they can just ram through whatever they want even though they have no majority and polls are against them. This is the classic left wing approach as they have used in academia- our way, or the highway. This is cancel culture in the extreme, right out of the campus play book. Pelosi failed miserably. Schumer thought he needed to do whatever the bartender from the Bronx said and he lost. How disgraceful. A bartender is essentially running the Senate. This is what it has come to under Democratic control.

The stock market is likely to close out the year about where I predicted in early October, 4700-4800. Omicron is not going to be as serious a problem as first feared, and there are now lots of ways to treat most people, and avoid hospitalization and death. In S Africa it is already receding. While there will be a burst of cases this week form Christmas events, there will not be a long term disruption. Most people are deciding to just go on with their life, and just be careful. Here in FL life is almost back to normal despite a sudden Christmas surge in cases. The stopping of BBB is a major good thing for the stock market, and the economy, as it will prevent another major boost to inflation. This is despite what Goldman said. However, as mentioned before, wages are spiraling, unions for the first time in many years are striking, and despite what Biden claims, the supply chain is still a mess. Truckers say the government still has not done all that is required to get more truck drivers to meet the needs. The backup of ships continues. The PPI was nearly 10% last month, so the CPI will continue to rise for several more months. Oil is rising again as Omicron proves to not last long and as things continue back on the reopening track, and the heating season ramps up. The Fed may have speeded up taper, but they are going to continue to feed cash into the economy for three more months when they should have stopped by now. The real risk of the Fed needing to push through a larger than forecast rate increase in Q3 remains.

If you take out the top six stocks in the SPX, the market is generally down, and for some stocks it is down a lot. This suggests the underpinnings of the market are weak, and as rates rise, the top tech darlings will begin to decline as well at some point, and then there is a risk that the whole market will drop much more. The offset is the consumers still have a lot of liquidity and ability to run up credit cards, but as inflation continues and wages do not keep up with inflation, spending is likely to drop, not so much in dollars due to inflation, as in SKUs. However, there are already indications of a slowdown in spending. Rents are way up and continuing up, and food prices are still rising. For lower middle class and lower class workers this is a bad scenario. The dilemma for most investors is they have big gains, and if they sell they have big taxes, so they hold on. Were it not for the big taxable gains, they would be sellers. So the odd situation of too big taxable gains is one of the big reasons the stock market has not had a major decline already. I remain pessimistic about the stock and the bond market for 2022. I may prove wrong, but getting more liquid is going to be my strategy this coming year. The cash I will receive shortly from the sale of my last major project is going to remain in cash, or cash like securities until I can determine what the year looks like. I might miss out on some large gains, but I do not feel comfortable putting that substantial cash at risk now given my negative view of the coming year potential bad political, geopolitical, and Fed actions. I do plan to hold my positions in MSFT, HD, APPL AMZN and TMO for the moment, but that could change. The good news is Covid seems to be a much lesser challenge and will possibly become just another virus like the flu, so it will not negatively impact the stock market as we go into 2022.

For some perspective-Apple's value is larger than the GDP of all but four nations. It is actually as large as India and larger than France and the UK. It is not far behind Germany. Microsoft is close behind. The top ten stocks are 30% of the total value of the S&P and 25% of the value of all publicly traded stocks in the US. That is why the SPX has done so well. The top ten stocks by capitalization have doubled in two years, far outpacing the rest of the market. The pandemic has had a major impact on this as these companies thrived during the virus and did not suffer the supply chain and labor issues of other industries. As the virus becomes a much lesser impact on the economy, it is possible these companies will not outperform as much, but their businesses will not suffer. Their positions in the world are well established and will likely remain so for a few more years. That is not to say other stocks will not outperform these top ten, but as a long term investment strategy, having substantial positions in these companies is a strategy I plan to continue to follow, at least for the moment. I could change my position as things develop in the next couple of months.

New home sales are declining. The prices are simply now getting too high. There is a huge shortage of existing homes for sale at the moment which is keeping sales of new homes still happening with rising prices, but we may have reached the peak in prices, or are near to doing so other than for high end houses. Don't be surprised if home prices decline at some point in 2022. Lumber prices have shot up again, and so the cost to build a new home is still rising. As soon as mortgage rates rise, we are likely to see the new house market reverse downward, at least at the lower and maybe middle price ranges.

There are still millions who refuse to get vaccinated, and some millions who say they would not even get the treatment with the Pfizer pill if they got sick. As we said in the Navy, there are always 10% who don't get it, no matter how well you explain it. By now there is now no credible medical scientist or doctor anywhere who thinks the vaccines are not safe. But it shows how misinformation can get spread on the internet and cause people to do stupid things. Normality will return in 2022 as it already has here in FL. School closures are proven to be very damaging to kids, but there are still a few districts where they closed again. Some school administrators are not caring about the kids, or are just misinformed.

Demographics really matter. The US had no population growth due to no immigration and minimal births. All we have is illiterate and poor illegals flooding in across the border bringing no skills and just needs for welfare. Population growth matters a lot. No growth, and over time, the economy suffers. Labor shortages get worse, and tax revenue gets strained as older people retire, and become takers of government funds instead of payers into government coffers, and there are not enough young people to fund all the social security and medical care needs of the older people. We are now in a long term trend that is not going to be good in a few years. The US birth rate has declined to a low number for several years, so it is just worse now due to Covid, and the shutting of immigration. Germany is in even worse demographic situation, and that is why they are in favor of letting in migrants from the Mideast. Japan is in a population decline for several years and now China is starting to be in decline. None of this is good for economic growth in the world long term, nor for governments to be able to pay for the aging generations who now live longer. The world needs people to work longer years or there will be real problems in a decade or more. The US is not the only major country now in a serious labor shortage. In Germany the tax laws and entitlements are a prime example of what not to do as they incent people not to work. Their labor participation is well below ours. You would think the Dems would look at that and see how stupid their ideas are for BBB.

China is now in trouble. Their population is declining, and will not grow much since the one child policy is now coming home to become a real constraint on population growth as there are a real paucity of couples. Many young couples are choosing to have no, or just one kid, and to enjoy their new found middle class city life. The population is aging and that is becoming a drag on the government budget. The provinces used land sales and development and infrastructure construction to grow their economic strength. That is over for now. The developers are all now in survival mode, and not buying land. The massive number of condos have created a glut, and prices are down and declining, so little new development is happening causing development fees to provinces to drop materially. That is a real financial issue for provinces. Real estate was 25%-30% of the Chinese economy, and now it is in contraction, and will remain so for maybe a few years. Xi has also shut down the top entrepreneurs who were driving the private sector growth. He does not want any wealthy powerful threats to the party, nor himself. He has gone after most of the really smart successful business leaders, and put limits on some of their companies. And lastly Covid has caused shut downs and further constraint on economic growth. The big state owned companies that Xi is pushing are very inefficient as they always are when government tries to run anything. Taken all together, China has some serious problems that are not going away anytime soon. Chinese economic growth is likely to be slower for a while, and maybe permanently.

Biden claims his cabinet generated 6 million jobs, ended the supply chain problems, and is solving the Covid crisis. Total BS as usual. The jobs were simply due to the reopening of the economy which was well underway before inauguration. The supply chain issues are far from solved as there are still ships backed up, and the end of Christmas shipping rush has relieved some of the pressure. The major retailers chartered their own ships and used their own trucks and warehouses, and alternate ports. Biden had zero to do with any of it. The administration completely blew it on Covid testing, and now the country is not able to detect some cases fast enough to know who needs the new Pfizer pills to prevent serious illness. After Biden said Trump handling of testing was a travesty, he has now failed to fund and make testing widely available. For Biden to say the supply chain problems are non-existent is absurd. He just reads whatever the teleprompter says.

Putin has understood how weak Biden really is, and how easy it is to push the EU on foreign policy, and has made ridiculous demands and threats expecting Biden to partly fold on some of it. When the west only made verbal threats of retaliation, and did not yet ship arms to Ukraine, and did not move thousands of NATO troops and heavy weapons to Poland, Putin knew he had the upper hand, and so he made even more threats. Instead of saying we will have to see, Biden said we will not defend Ukraine. It was highly unlikely the US would commit troops, but the, "we will see", is always a door left open and a possibility. Trump used that often, and nobody was ever sure what he might do. Always a good position to have in geopolitics, as Putin is demonstrating. We will see in January if Biden folds or tells Putin to go stuff it, and follows with more sanctions, big arms shipments to Ukraine and NATO troop movements. Biden should be doing those things now before any talks begin. That way he could agree to move the troops back as a concession and give up nothing. It will not happen. It also looks like the Iran talks are dead. We will see if the US and EU go crawling and begging again. The next month or two will be critical in geopolitics as the world waits to see just how weak Biden is with Russia and Iran. I have little hope of a strong showing, or a good outcome. Putin is making his big play now. One side or the other will look weak and back down. China is watching all of this. 2022 is when the whole Iran situation will come to a head. Israel is already waging cyberwar and will step it up this year. Real war is possible as Iran moves closer to a bomb.

Trump is likely to run, and if he does he would get the nomination right now despite millions of Republicans who do not want him as the candidate. I have had an overwhelming series of emails from many of you saying you could not vote for Trump even if you are a Republican. Trump cannot win an election unless they put up Harris, which is not happening. Someone who has the connections and access to large cash, needs to get behind an alternate candidate like DeSantis or Pompeo or Haley, and push that person forward with loads of cash backing to influence other senior party players. Trump controls a lot of cash now, and so a challenger has to have a similar pile of cash to have influence. Republicans have a historic opportunity in 2024, and Trump is the wrong person to lead as it will end in the Dems holding the White House.

Chile just elected a far left 35 year old activist as president. Chile has been a big success story to date with a good economy. If you want to watch what would happen if the left took over the US, just watch Chile over the next year. It is about to become the next Venezuela.

Happy New Year
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I still help some former clients by managing their portfolios and this is what I am sending to them at year end (somewhat edited.)

It has been around 3 years since my style of value and dividend investing has been in favor. Consequently 2021 turned out to be a generally favorable year.

As for the coming year outlook, those who receive and read my memos know I am not positive on the Biden Administration.  Inflation and diplomatic weakness are of deep concern and the prospect of war(s) cannot be dismissed in terms of Taiwan, The Middle East , Ukraine. 

Continuing explosion in government debt cannot be ignored and the associated decline in the value (purchasing power) of the dollar is of particular concern. The supply chain issue will eventually resolve itself and began mostly because corporations sought to save money by reducing inventories, employing on-time delivery and then were hit with Covid.

Stock valuations in technology are stretched and the immediate rise in the price of new issues historically signals we are approaching, if not already in, a period of speculative excess.

That said, there are positives as well.  Many stocks  are reasonably priced, have decent balance sheets and offer some direct return of capital by way of dividends and buy backs.
The world’s economies have yet to link and that is a positive. American family balance sheets are also solid and job opportunities are plentiful.

The impact of The Covid pandemic has lessened but this administration’s desire for power and growth in  government cannot be dismissed and remains an unknown negative while spreading uncertainty.
Finally, our historical quantitative and qualitative military edge has diminished and infiltration of our borders presents a serious terrorist, criminal and health threat.

The political and social discord gripping America is disheartening and one cannot dismiss the possibility  America’s star is fading as China’s star ascends.  We are nearing our 3rd century and most nations peak within their 2d if not before. Have we outlived our dominance because we allowed radicalization to penetrate while we were asleep? As has been written are we guilty of: “getting  and spending we lay waste our power.”

Positive sectors of investment focus remain in health care, energy, telecommunications, financials, selected technology and utilities and perhaps some infrastructure cyclicals. 

Stocks of particular interest remain: BMY, MRK, GILD, a range of Biotechs, , SU, VZ, AFL, QCOM, INTC, VIAC, IBM and WBA

I wish you the happiest and healthiest of New Years and will be happy to discuss anything on your mind.

Sincerely,

Me 
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When you think about it our planet is insignificant in size..


Maybe this magician can make our problems disappear?

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