How an all-out Israel war could rope in the US and
other countries
By Michael Oren
This article originally appeared in the New York Post.
Terrorist rockets rain on Israeli towns and villages.
Tens of thousands are displaced, dozens killed, and vast swaths of territory are
set ablaze.
Sounds like the Gaza Envelope, the belt of Israeli communities bordering Gaza i
n the south — but it describes the reality in Israel’s north.
Starting with Hamas’ invasion of Oct. 7, the Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon
launched an utterly unprovoked assault on the Galilee.
Now, eight months later, entire cities stand abandoned and countless acres of farmland
uncultivated or burnt.
Rockets and attack drones target any Israeli — civilian or soldier — exposed.
Each day, the range of Hezbollah fire advances southward, today targeting the major
cities of Safad and Tiberias, and tomorrow, most likely, Haifa.
If left unchecked, Hezbollah soon could render half the country uninhabitable.
This would be an intolerable situation for any country and certainly for Israel,
a nation
still reeling from the trauma of Oct. 7, the almost daily deaths of its soldiers
ever since and its sense of international isolation.
Hezbollah, one of the most powerful military forces in the Middle East, is waging
a war of attrition designed to further erode Israel’s resources.
Israeli counter strikes have killed hundreds of Hezbollah terrorists and destroyed many
of their emplacements, but such actions will have little effect on an organization that
unflinchingly lost thousands fighting in the Syrian civil war.
While Israelis are reluctant to expand the northern front while fighting in Gaza still
rages, soon the government will have no choice but to act.
But a full-scale war in the north will differ profoundly from Gaza.
At its height, Hamas fielded some 15,000 rockets of limited accuracy and
destructiveness along with 30,000 armed terrorists.
For all the horrors it inflicted on Oct. 7, Hamas only poses a tactical threat
to Israel.
Hezbollah, by contrast, threatens Israel strategically.
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Among its arsenal of at least 150,000 rockets and missiles are those that
can hit any target — airfields, military bases, oil refineries, even the Dimona
nuclear reactor — as far away as Israel’s southernmost port of Eilat.
Hezbollah’s innumerable exploding drones have picked off civilians trying to
access their homes and soldiers resting in an Arab community center.
Unlike Hamas, confined to Gaza and cut off from resupply, Hezbollah has all of
Lebanon in which to maneuver, and logistical lines stretching across Syria.
Any war with Hezbollah is likely to involve rocket fire on Israel from Iranian-backed
militias in Iraq and Yemen, as well as missile onslaughts, similar to that launched
against Israel on April 14 from Iran.
The war with Hamas is localized.
War with Hezbollah will be regional, at least, if not broader.
The war will differ not only from that in Gaza but also from Israel’s previous conflict
with Hezbollah in 2006.
At that time, Israel distinguished between Hezbollah and Lebanon and did not declare
war against its northern neighbor.
Today, though, Israel regards Hezbollah and Lebanon as one.
War on the first will be war on both.
Lebanon, a country already on the verge of collapse, could be devastated.
For these reasons, the Biden administration opposes a major Israeli operation
against Hezbollah.
With an estimated 2,000 to 6,000 rockets pummeling Israel daily, and the Iron
Dome batteries potentially overwhelmed, the United States would be called upon
to come to Israel’s aid with its own sea-borne anti-missile systems.
An attack on any of these Navy vessels could drag America into the war with
Hezbollah and its Iranian sponsors and possibly even with Iran’s ally, Russia.
While senior Israeli military officials reportedly supported a lightning campaign to
neutralize Hezbollah last fall, political leaders, first among them Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu, took America’s opposition into account and held back.
But public pressure for decisive action is rapidly mounting and cannot be ignored
for long.
A diplomatic solution would, of course, be preferable to full-fledged war.
American mediators have been shuttling between Jerusalem and Beirut to
resurrect UN Security Council resolution 1701 from 2006.
Crafted by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, the resolution called on Hezbollah
to withdraw north of the Litani River, about 13 miles from the Israeli border, and
for UN peacekeepers to establish a buffer zone in-between.
Hezbollah violated the agreement almost immediately, while the UN merely
looked on.
Today, Israelis cannot help but wonder why, with its forces now vastly greater,
Hezbollah would retreat beyond the Litani.
How could UN peacekeepers possibly prove more effective than they did in the
past?
And what leverage could the United States, anxious to avoid Middle East
entanglements, bring to bear?
Hezbollah, meanwhile, has vowed to press its attacks on Israel for as long as the
fighting in Gaza continues.
But with Hamas now rejecting US and Israeli proposals for a cease-fire, no end to
Hezbollah’s aggression seems possible.
Israel can’t be expected to respond passively, firing at the incoming rockets until
its Iron Dome interceptors run out.
Tragically, a combination of Hezbollah barbarism, UN impotence and America’s
fears have brought Israel to the point of no choice.
The anguish of northern Galilee is simply unsustainable and must be ended, even
at an exorbitant price.
Though the media, fixated on Gaza, all but ignores the conflagration unfurling
further north, a major war is liable to break out there any moment, with untold
ramifications for the Middle East, the United States and the world.
In that event, Israel will act to defend itself, and Israelis will look to our American
allies to assist us in restoring our security.
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Five Takeaways from The Adas Debacle
The Adas debacle should disabuse any wishful thinking that the summer will
cool anti-Israel passions on the campuses.
By Abraham Cooper
Use Up/Down Arrow keys to increase or decrease volume.
Part of my work over the years at the Simon Wiesenthal Center is to be the
intake person for plenty of bad news. In just the last few days, we have seen
Jewish parents beset upon at a Brooklyn 5th grade graduation, shots fired at a
beloved falafel store in Montreal (following two other shootings targeting Jewish
schools in Montreal). On Sunday morning came word that ISIS had launched
simultaneous attacks in Dagestan, Russia against a Church—where the pastor had
his throat slit and a synagogue was burnt to the ground. Thank G-d no Jews were
in shul at the time, but over a dozen police were killed or wounded.
Against that backdrop, I made my way to Adas Torah Sunday late morning, home
to hundreds of Orthodox Jews where Angelinos from across the Westside were invited
to an Israeli Real Estate Seminar, similar to ones that had been held in Brooklyn,
New York, Teaneck New Jersey and Shaare Tzedek Synagogue in the Valley.
In each of those gatherings, pro-Hamas protesters showed up to threaten and
demonize local lovers of Zion. I expected no less but experienced more than I
bargained for.
Over the last 4 ½ decades, I have come to trust and admire the LADP. They have
always done their best to protect our community, come hell or high water. Through
riots and Covid and defunding, they held the line.
Tragically, their deployment outside Pico was not up to the challenge. The pro-Hamas
forces which included virulent Code Pink were allowed to congregate close to the
entrance of Adas from both east and west sidewalks as well all on Pico Blvd as well
separated only by parked Magen Am vehicles.
Here are the words of a fellow member of the Young Israel of Century City who
describes the scene as many of us experienced it:
“The scene outside Adas at 12:45 PM today was chaotic and dangerous. LAPD
seemed to be in react mode vs prevent mode. Standard protocols that we have all
seen and experienced at rallies to protect freedom of assembly did not appear to be
implemented. Here are some thoughts based on what I saw first-hand.
I couldn’t help but be saddened/scared by what appeared to be an unprepared set of
LAPD officers.
1. Clearly defined areas for “assembly” by different groups in two different areas
were not established
2. Pico traffic became blocked organically and become dangerous…
3. Anti-Israel protesters came ‘ready’ with means for escalation (sprays, ski googles)
and seemingly walked around freely and antagonistically amidst the mixed crowd
(again, defined areas for assembly could have made it easier on law enforcement and
easier on those assembling)
4. Fisticuffs broke out in different spots in a two-block area and LAPD seemed on
their heels, and then they intervened with greater force that could have been avoided
had they been more proactive from the get-go
5. LAPD did not have enough of a presence at 12:45 . . . but this changed when I
walked out of Adas back on Pico at 2:45
6. The sidewalk area right in front of the shul was controlled by protesters, not by
law enforcement – – why didn’t law enforcement move the ‘line’ away from the
shul entrance?
7. Once sprays were used by protesters and things escalated, why wasn’t the entire
thing shut down?
8. When I walked south to my car, I was surprised to see that the entire ‘event’ had
moved directly onto our residential streets . . . and there was ZERO law enforcement
there…”
Meanwhile, as if responding to an unseen cue—some Jews were pepper- sprayed.
I stopped to help one Persian gentleman who was on all fours trying to deal with
the pain nd shock. With the help of some volunteers, we calmed him down. When
he asked, “where was G-d?”, a stranger responded “G-d is testing us” …
Unfortunately one of my eyes also suffered from the spray and I rushed home to
irrigate the eye, returning at 2:30 to see that the still chaotic scene that had
shift east to Crest Drive and Pico…
Bottom lime
1. Thank G-d for Magen Am who maintained professionalism throughout. Without
them, I believe the Synagogue could have been easily breached by our enemies.
2. The LAPD was either not prepared or are under orders to not intervene or take
full control and apparently did not arrest people. Sounds eerily familiar to other
battlegrounds on Los Angeles campuses in recent weeks. If these are the current
orders of the day they must be challenged and changed.
3. What we experienced outside Adas was no mere hate crime but domestic
terrorism. It is high time that both Homeland Security and the FBI start connecting
the dots, wherever they may lead.
4. Our community must send a unified message to Mayor Bass and the City Council
along with the LAPD that we demand they fulfill their obligations to ensure the
safety of us taxpaying proud ZIONISTS.
5. As I told the LAPD officer in charge—going forward NO pro-Hamas protesters
or their ilk must ever be allowed to prance openly in front of our synagogues or
schools and endanger our children’s welfare. If Los Angeles needs more cops,
more training, let’s make sure they get it with the help of our elected officials
locally and from Governor Newsom and the State Legislature in Sacramento.
6. The Adas debacle should disabuse any wishful thinking that the summer will
cool anti-Israel passions on the campuses. The Jew-hatred we face is well planned,
coordinated, and has already reached the gates of two Jewish schools in the Valley
just last week.
Like it or not, we have to be prepared for the long haul and plan and act accordingly.
Our enemies clearly have. No panic, just smart Jewish action.
Am Yisrael Chai!
Rabbi Abraham Cooper is Associate Dean and Director of Global Social Action
Agenda for the Simon Wiesenthal Center.
++++
Netanyahu's complaint: A decade-old US arms delivery deception - opinion
Discover the ten-year-old incident that led Netanyahu to accuse the White House
of deceptive tactics regarding US arms deliveries to Israel.
AN ISRAEL Air Force F-16I with a BLU-109 penetrating bunker-buster bomb
under its wing; the bomb is wrapped with a JDAM kit. (photo credit: IDF
Spokesperson’s Unit)AN ISRAEL Air Force F-16I with a BLU-109 penetrating
bunker-buster bomb under its wing; the bomb is wrapped with a JDAM kit.
(photo credit: IDF Spokesperson’s Unit)
‘It’s inconceivable that in the past few months, the administration has been
withholding weapons and ammunition to Israel,” Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin
Netanyahu charged on June 18, 2024. “Israel, America’s closest ally, is fighting
for its life, fighting against Iran and our other common enemies.”
Within hours, the White House and State Department were rebutting the Israeli
prime minister and even suggesting he was delusional: “President Joe Biden’s
team is enraged and frustrated by Netanyahu’s video, a US official told ABC
News, adding that US officials have made clear to the Israelis that Netanyahu’s
video is inaccurate and out of line.”
In a call with reporters two days later on June 20, White House National Security
Council spokesman John Kirby called Netanyahu’s claim “perplexing, to say the
least. It was vexing and disappointing to us, as much as it was incorrect. So, it was
difficult to know exactly what was on [his] mind.”
White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre insisted at her daily press briefing,
“We genuinely do not know what he’s talking about. We just don’t.”
Was Netanyahu lying? Why did he blindside the United States government?
(L-R) US President Joe Biden, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu (credit: VIA REUTERS)(L-R) US President Joe Biden,
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
(credit: VIA REUTERS)
Netanyahu knew what weapons were supposedly in the pipeline. He had to
know as he explored the option of going to war against the Iranian-backed
and -commanded Hezbollah army in Lebanon. And Netanyahu knew the main
characters in a 2014 plot to hobble Israel and punish him, the Israeli prime
minister at the time. Sitting in the White House in 2014 were president Barack
Obama, vice president Joe Biden and his National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan,
and the president’s deputy national security advisor Ben Rhodes.
At the time, I heard rumors of a hold-up in the delivery of critical Hellfire
missiles to Israel. I queried US ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro, who said,
“It was just a temporary glitch.” But it wasn’t.
The 2014 White House script as published in ‘The Wall Street Journal’
In the summer of 2014, after volleys of Hamas rockets from Gaza and Hamas’s
kidnapping and murder of three Israeli teenagers, the Israeli air force struck back.
Seven weeks of war ensued, and, according to The Wall Street Journal, “White
House and State Department officials [led] US efforts to rein in Israel’s military
campaign in the Gaza Strip.”
The Journal continued:
“Many administration officials say the [2014] Gaza conflict-the third between
Israel and Hamas in under six years-has persuaded them that Mr. Netanyahu and
his national security team are both reckless and untrustworthy... Tensions really
started to flare after Israel launched Gaza ground operations on July 17, 2014, and
the civilian death toll started to rise sharply, prompting US officials to complain
that Israel wasn’t showing enough restraint. Israeli officials rejected that notion, saying
Hamas was using civilians as human shields... On July 20, Israel’s defense ministry
asked the US military for a range of munitions, including 120-mm mortar shells and
40-mm illuminating rounds, which were already kept stored at a pre-positioned weapons
stockpile in Israel,” it wrote.
“According to Israeli and congressional officials, the Pentagon’s Defense Security
Cooperation Agency was about to release an initial batch of [precision helicopter-fired]
Hellfire missiles. The Pentagon immediately put it on hold. Top White House officials
instructed the DSCA, the US military’s European Command, and other agencies to consult
with policymakers at the White House and the State Department before approving any
additional requests. The White House and State Department would require approval for
even routine munitions requests by Israel, officials say,” the WSJ wrote.
“Instead of being handled as a military-to-military matter, each case was subject to
review-slowing the approval process and signaling to Israel that military assistance,
once taken for granted, [was] now under closer scrutiny.”
Today’s view, five months before US elections
Team Obama, still playing strong in Washington, pulled out several plays when Israel
was confronted with another Gaza war. At first, they embraced Israel, and then they
dragged out the game and called penalties as the Jewish state took the offensive. “Don’t
throw the heavy bomb! Stay in bounds!”
It’s a shame the Israeli team hadn’t viewed the 2014 game films.
In early May 2024, President Biden told CNN in an interview that he would halt
some shipments of American weapons to Israel - which he claimed had been used to
kill civilians in Gaza - if Netanyahu ordered a major invasion of the city of Rafah. “I
made it clear that if they go into Rafah - they haven’t gone in Rafah yet - if they go
into Rafah, I’m not supplying the weapons that have been used historically to deal
with Rafah, to deal with the cities, that deal with that problem,” he said. Biden says
he will stop sending bombs and artillery shells to Israel if it launches a major invasion
of Rafah.
A coordinated media campaign against the supply of “heavy bombs” to Israel was
launched in December 2023 by The New York Times, Washington Post, and CNN.
It was as if a political echo chamber was activated. Targeted explicitly by the
publications were 2,000-pound bombs and Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAM)
kits that provided “dumb bombs” with precision guidance, ostensibly something
critics should approve of.
The latest scheduled shipment was supposed to consist of JDAM kits, eighteen
hundred 2,000-lb bombs, and seventeen hundred 500-lb bombs.
Svengali Rhodes
One name was missing from the 2024 “Obama Team” still at work in the
White House: Ben Rhodes, who served as Obama’s deputy national security advisor
and anti-Israel play-caller during the tempestuous Iran Deal and Gaza weapons
episodes. Rhodes was a political Svengali, the creator and director of the infamous
Washington “Echo Chamber.”
Last week, “Svengali” stepped out from behind the curtains with a pre-election essay
in Foreign Affairs titled “A Foreign Policy for the World as It Is: Biden and the Search
for a New American Strategy.” According to Rhodes, Israel was a core problem.
He griped that the US administration “criticizes Russia for the same indiscriminate
tactics that Israel has used in Gaza” and that “Washington has supplied the Israeli
government with weapons used to bombard Palestinian civilians with impunity.”
What caused the current conflagration, according to the former White House speech
writer? What lit “a fuse that detonated” the war? Rhodes lists the pro-Israel actions
of the previous Trump administration as catalysts:
“Moving the US Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, recognizing the
annexation of the Golan Heights, and pursuing the Abraham Accords.” Rhodes
continued, “The Palestinians were cut out of Arab-Israeli normalization,
[and] Israel’s far-right [were] emboldened, lighting a fuse that detonated in the
current war.”
Is the jig up?
Washington analyst Michael Doran, writing in Tablet magazine, identified the
administration’s maneuver on arms shipments to Israel as an “Italian strike, a
tactic of slowing or stopping work by meticulously adhering to rules and
regulations.” There is no anti-Israel embargo; the Biden team is just following
rules, they insisted.
“The purpose of the Italian strike is to force the Israelis
into dependence on the United States, to deny them the
ability to make long-term plans-namely plans regarding
Hezbollah [sic] and Iran,” Doran wrote.
“On June 20, Senator Tom Cotton [R-Arkansas] wrote to President Biden. He
accused the Administration of “bureaucratic sleight-of-hand” to withhold crucial
aid to Israel by “withholding formal notification to Congress of approved weapons
sales.” The weapons, supposedly “in process” but never delivered, include F-15 f
ighter planes, tactical vehicles, 120-mm mortars, 120-mm tank rounds, JDAMS, and
small-diameter bombs.
All are crucial weapon systems in the event of a Hezbollah-Iranian attack against Israel.
Meanwhile, reports in Israel suggest that a ship full of weapons has departed the United
States destined for the Jewish state. Or maybe the ship broke its mooring like the $230
million pier floating somewhere off the coast of Gaza.
The writer is the director of the Institute for US-Israel Relations at the Jerusalem Center
for Foreign Affairs. He served as deputy chief of mission at the Israel Embassy in
Washington (1997-2000), and earlier worked for AIPAC for 25 years in Washington a
nd Jerusalem.
++++
A Massive Supreme Court Decision
By Sherwin Pomerantz
A full, extended nine-judge panel of Israel’s Supreme Court earlier today ordered a full
draft of the ultra-Orthodox (i.e.haredim) into the IDF and freezing all funds for institutions
that do not comply. The blockbuster ruling could lead to new elections or, if not, a change
in the political landscape on the issue of haredim in the IDF.
If the government and Knesset have been working slowly on the issue for months and years,
hoping to stall a crisis, the pressure on haredi MKs and the government to arrive at a solution t
o restore their funding just jumped significantly.
In rare moments, one could tell the justices were emotionally disturbed by the idea that during
an ongoing Israel-Hamas war, which has taken the lives of around 1,500 Israelis, haredim still feel
that asking them to do the same service is oppressive. When a haredi man at the hearing vowed
the ultra-Orthodox he knew would rather die than be drafted, it seemed to ring hollower with
the justices mid-war than in the past.
If, in the past, such statements had a shock value, which made most Israelis who do serve in
the IDF hold their heads in shock and decide to move on because the difficulty of
negotiating with such a complicated sector of the country was too great, the war seemed
to have changed the atmosphere in the court building.
Some 262 days into the 'Iron Swords' war, a source in the IDF’s Southern Command revealed
the military situation of Hamas in a report in the Jerusalem Post. That says that Hamas is
experiencing an inability to produce weapons and lacks command and control, and the Gazan
population is trying to prevent them from firing towards Israel.
"Since October 7th, we have carried out 30,000 airstrikes on targets in Gaza. This is in
addition to thousands of attacks conducted by combat helicopters and UAVs of the Air Force.
We managed to damage production sites," said an official in the command. "We have caused
significant damage to Hamas's production and armament capabilities at both the battalion and
brigade levels. On the rare occasions when they do fire, we quickly close the loop and strike them."
He also said, "We are also working to locate the remaining launchers and terrorist squads
before they are able to fire. At the same time, we found that individuals in Gaza have started
trying to intervene in Hamas's firing attempts. This marks a local rebellion by the population
against Hamas. It is in our interest that similar interventions happen again in the future," said
the source.
Despite months of U.S.-led airstrikes against Yemen's Houthi fighters, they have continued to
draw from an arsenal of increasingly advanced weapons to attack vessels in and around the
Red Sea. Just this month, Houthi militants sank one ship and set another ablaze. They have
launched swarms of drones at US warships and deployed a remote-controlled boat packed with
explosives, tactics and weapons associated with the group's patron, Iran. Referring to the faltering
US efforts to halt Houthi operations and protect global shipping, Gerald Feierstein, a former US
Ambassador to Yemen who is now a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, noted,
"Their ability to replace whatever we destroy is unimpeded and our ability to interdict materiel
coming into the country is negligible." Since November, the Pentagon has recorded more than
190 attacks on either U.S. military vessels or commercial shipping off the coast of Yemen, including
nearly 100 since U.S. airstrikes began in January.
According to a report in the Jerusalem Post, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told US Secretary
of State Blinken in Washington on Monday, "The eyes of both our enemies and our friends are on t
he relationship between the US and Israel". We must resolve the differences between us quickly and
stand together - this is how we will achieve our goals and weaken our enemies." He spoke amid a
public dispute between the two countries over the flow of arms to Israel for its wars against Iranian
proxy groups.
For an uplifting moment feel free to listen to our new popular national anthem (with subtitles i
n English as well) here…..
++++
Any Hezbollah expanded war could become the
genesis for the start of the 3rd WW.
++++
Dear Dick,
Today, former State Department advisor and JINSA fellow Gabriel Noronha highlighted four charts
that clearly show how Hezbollah is bringing Israel and the Iranian-backed terror proxy closer to a devastating
war.
First, every single day, Hezbollah is firing a significant number of rockets, missiles and drones into I
srael — and this number has grown dramatically this month: from an average of 15 munitions per day to
44 per day in June.
Second, Hezbollah has launched more than 90 drones into Israel this month alone, far more than any
month since October 7. While Israel’s missile defense systems have successfully intercepted many of the
rockets and missiles, drones have proven much more difficult to intercept.
Third, while some have tried to frame Hezbollah’s escalation as a response to Israeli actions, the data
shows otherwise. The IDF has continued to carry out airstrikes against Hezbollah targets since
Hezbollah first attacked Israel after October 7, but its response hasn’t yet ramped up like Hezbollah has.
Fourth, as Hezbollah brings both countries to the brink of war, it is clear that a war between Israel
and Hezbollah will be devastating for both Israel and Lebanon. Hezbollah’s attacks — devastating and
deadly as they’ve been — represent just a fraction of the Iranian-backed army’s arsenal, which is
larger than many national armies.
Hezbollah is attacking Israel daily with rockets, missiles and drones — terrorizing communities and
leaving 70,000 Israelis displaced.
Iran’s terror army is provoking a dangerous war that would have a devastating impact in Israel and
Lebanon.
America must stand with Israel as it acts to protect its families from Hezbollah.
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