Monday, March 1, 2021

Our Potential And Pitiful Atty Gen. Trump Haters Salivate Over Prospect Of Criminal Tax Returns. Ross Rants Again.












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Breaking: Here’s Why Sen. Kennedy Is Comparing Biden’s Actions to That of a ‘Banked Catfish’

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This pitiful person could be your next Attorney General: https://youtu.be/qCkk8rnZEZo

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Trump haters salivate over his tax returns which have been sought first so the "framed" crime can be found later.  The kangaroos abound.

With Trump’s tax returns, leftists have a new conspiracy theory

The following story is brought to you courtesy of American Thinker

Last week, the Supreme Court greenlighted the Manhattan District Attorney’s fishing expedition into Donald Trump’s tax returns for the past eight years. Trump, therefore, turned over a million pages of financial to the D.A. That’s good enough for the Trump Derangement Syndrome suffers to breathe new life into their Russia conspiracy theory.

Since 2019, when Robert Mueller admitted that Trump had not colluded with the Russians, Cyrus Vance, Jr., the Manhattan District Attorney has been trying to get Trump’s tax returns. The basis for this push was the vague claim that there was “possibly extensive and protracted criminal conduct at the Trump Organization.”

Of course, this isn’t how American law is supposed to work. Traditionally, the government first knows there’s a crime and then must prove it. What Vance’s office is doing is purely Soviet: They’ve got the man and now they want his taxes to prove a crime, any crime.

Still, Vance got a grand jury to demand Trump’s tax returns. As everyone knows, a prosecutor can get a grand jury to rubber-stamp anything he wants.

The Supreme Court, which operates on a political rather than a constitutional basis of late, refused to block the Manhattan D.A.’s witch hunt. Trump rightly blasted the Supreme Court for its willingness to “let this ‘fishing expedition’ happen…” Still, he complied with the Court order. turning millions of pages of tax returns and financial records over to the D.A.’s office.

(If you’ll pardon a digression, Trump’s compliance with the law is typical. This is in stark contrast to Joe Biden who, on his first day in the Oval Office, announced that his administration would no longer enforce most of America’s immigration laws. But back to the main point….)

On Saturday, Tim O’Brien, a Bloomberg Opinion senior columnist told MSNBC’s Nicole Wallace that this time, the jig is really up for Trump. This is the big one. He’s going down! As O’Brien had written,

A dam that Trump has spent decades fortifying around his finances and tax returns has been broken. And Vance’s investigation appears to be broad enough to pose a serious criminal threat to the former president, his three eldest children and the Trump Organization.

One would expect a “Bloomberg Opinion senior columnist” to have a certain gravitas, but one would be wrong. O’Brien’s interview revealed that he’s still deep into Russian conspiracy territory. Moreover, for him, the tax returns will do what “Impeachment Part II: the Insurrectioning” failed to do; namely, make sure that Trump cannot run again for president.

O’Brien has a whole “Trump the Kapo” scenario in his mind. He admits that Vance needs to prove intent (that is, Vance has to prove that some of America’s most prestigious accounting firms chit-chatted with Trump about major business and tax fraud) but he’s certain all the evidence is there and that that Trump’s accountants will flip on him. (Actually, that’s a grim possibility. As we’ve seen with the other witch hunts against Trump, the Deep State has no hesitation about destroying people’s lives to blackmail them into telling lies or twisted truths to implicate themselves or Trump.)

In addition to dreaming of seeing Trump go down, O’Brien also salivates at the prospect of seeing the prosecutor destroy Donald Jr., Eric, and Ivanka Trump. With primitive ferocity, O’Brien, like all leftists, wants to erase the entire Trump lineage from the face of the earth.

As far as O’Brien is concerned, Vance’s investigation will be Russiagate all over again:

“The period of time he has is important because it predates Trump’s accent into the White House, and I think helps build the narrative around the money trail and Trump’s motivations for his destructive and obscene dance with people like Vladimir Putin,” he said.

I can find no evidence that Tim O’Brien was even slightly perturbed about the fact that there is first-hand evidence from Hunter Biden’s computer, that Joe Biden pimped his drug-addled, debauched son in both China and Ukraine to swell the Biden family coffers.

For O’Brien, the primary goal, of course, is to make sure Trump doesn’t run again: “The brass ring in all of this is that, if Trump has a criminal conviction, he cannot run for president again.”

Since the day Trump was elected, leftists in Congress and the media have breathlessly assured their fan base that this time Trump’s career is over and prison or, at the very least, an ignominious retreat from public life, looms. For now, I’m prepared to file O’Brien’s fevered accusations away in the same category as the leftists’ false and failed assurances that Trump had collaborated with Russians, that Trump had praised white supremacists, that Trump had collaborated with Ukrainians, and that Trump had fomented an armed coup against the American government. 

And:
I remember when Bill Clinton took large deductions, which were disallowed, for charitable gifts of his underwear.

And: 

Is Haley trying to climb back aboard the "Good Ship Trump?" https://apple.news/ADce2mXk3SE2D7yH2m8TzLA

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Ross Rants again:

As predicted, the ten year is off and running. Now it has had its tantrum and already run past 1.5%, and the markets reacted as predicted. It has settled back under 1.5%, and is likely to stay around there for a while. It is likely to rise to around 1.75%-2.0% by year end. It is unclear what Powell is really thinking, as we all see inflation picking up, and as the economy rebounds from here, it will push rates higher and inflation higher. Here is the question-Will the Fed be forced to continue QE forever given the already high level of Federal debt, and if rates rise, the government will not be able to afford essential programs, nor left wing programs due to very high debt service consuming too much of the budget.

 

The main Dem assumption is rates remain low for a long time, so they rely on MMT to justify their spending.  That is the key theory they are operating under. It is unclear what the market will do from here over the next few weeks. The economic numbers are going to be better than forecast for February, and earnings of 85% of reporting companies beat by an average of 13%. I continue to hear from across the country that there are almost no qualified skilled workers left to hire in many markets. Companies say they can’t meet their staffing needs now, other than in hospitality, and travel related fields. Factories are adding overtime and raising wages just to try to keep up with demand.

 

Personal income in January was up 10% and savings were up to 20%.  There is a huge pot of cash waiting to be spent and invested.  New homes are being sold off drawings. Housing continues to boom. The sudden market drop due to the sharp rise in the 10 year was faster than expected, but I believe the market will calm down as the Fed moves to stabilize the bond market, and investors realize that the economy is doing very well, and as shots are ramping up quickly. Earnings will grow throughout the year and GDP will rise at a 6%-7% rate for the year,  and possibly more.

 

Between Fed policy, massive irresponsible Congressional spending, and the determination of the White House to lie about shots and the economy, it is hard to predict much right now. The 7 year Treasury auction last week was a disaster so the whole issue of rates is dicey right now. Because federal debt is so high, and growing rapidly, the Fed is likely to keep rates low or the debt service will be intolerable.

 

Bottom line- consumers have $3.5 trillion savings-a record, the best personal balance sheets in decades, the lowest debt service obligations in decades, and huge pent up demand. This will get released by spring once most people have had a shot- by May 1. See below. 

 

One of my very smart investment pro pals has modeled this all out, and he makes the point that the Fed funds rate has never varied more than 100-150 BP from the ten year. Spreads over time, for the same credits, always revert to the mean. So if Fed funds stay around zero, then the ten year stays around 1.25-1.5% for much of the year. This correlation has been good since 1960. If GDP rises more than 6%-7% then maybe the Fed acts, and then all bets are off. Using various models he correlates that 1.5% is consistent with a 20x PE on SPX 2022 earnings forecast. So if SPX forward is $200 then 4000 on SPX is reasonable this year.  His high yield to PE model suggests a 23X PE, which suggests SPX goes above 4000 later in the year.

 

For a 10% drop in stocks suggests a ten year of 2.25%. This does not mean we can’t see a 10% short term drop at some point then returning to higher prices. Keep in mind that March sees tax selling to pay April taxes, so the upside may not return until late April as the shots become widespread, and things are reopened, and cases trail off to very small numbers.  On Thursday the VIX went from 21 earlier in the week to 30.7, but back down to 28.9.  30 is getting high, but not too worrisome. I remain equity invested for now. Powell may need to come out and say the Fed will keep bond markets orderly. Take your seasick pills. This is going to be wild ride at times, but do not let short term downs panic your thinking.

 

So of course Biden and Pelosi want to hype bad news forecasts about the virus to justify their $1.9 Trillion of wasted spending, with another $2 Trillion infrastructure package behind this, and more to come after that. Only 9% of the funds are related to Covid in the current bill, and $1 trillion remains unspent from the bills the Republicans passed prior to January 20, and much of the funding from the new bill will not even be spent until 2022-28 according the CBO. They are pushing the fake bad news of Covid right now to justify their spending package, when the data clearly show things are getting much better very quickly, and will get better a lot faster if the Dem states would reopen, and if the teachers would get back to their responsibilities to the kids they are destroying.

 

I am now convinced there is no real push to get schools reopened because that would slash unemployment quickly, and make it clear that this spending bill is a terrible idea. CDC was forced to backtrack that it is OK to open schools now, and the unions are in lockstep with the White House. There is now even much more evidence that by May there will be a very different Covid situation as J&J is now approved and will start to ship this week, and as Pfizer and Modern ramp up production further as they get approval to have more shots per vial, and as the shipping temperature is now approved to be far lower. In short, there is now a spurt of increase in shots, and we have already passed 68 million-see below. There were already 17 million shots the day Biden took office while he claims there was “no vaccine” and no plan when he took office.

 

What we have now is the reverse of Trump.  He downplayed the virus, while Biden and Harris are lying about how many shots have been given, and how fast it is ramping up, and how well the distribution is really working. Joe just held a TV event to celebrate giving of 50 million shots, but that ignores the 17 million before January 20. Biden and CDC and the White House are lying to make it appear much worse than it is so they can pass these spending bills, about which they are totally lying. It is why Biden says time is critical to pass the bill. They know in 30 days the vaccine and hospitalizations story will be very different and they will not have a case for the spending.

 

Updated numbers are a typical family of four with 2 kids over 6 will receive $12,800 cash (4x1400=5600+3600x2=7200=12,800), plus an extra $400 a week for each unemployed parent or $3200 a month extra if both are unemployed. That is an added $38,400 a year for not working.  Now we are up to $51,000 after tax dollars, plus state unemployment-(let’s assume $300 a week on average or another $31,200 for both parents) so now we are at $82,000, plus food stamps, plus Medicaid, rent subsidies, and who knows what else, all of which is after tax dollars. Plus they had just gotten $600 each from the December bill or $2400 for the family. For many families in lower income cohorts that is far more than they would earn if they work. It is middle class  after tax family income with all of the benefits priced out, for zero work effort.

 

If fully counted with all the benefits, the whole package is estimated by one economist  to equate to around $135,000 family income pre-tax for someone who is working and paying payroll and income taxes, and part of their medical costs. All of the subsidies are tax free as opposed to wage earners who earn the same, but pay taxes and payroll taxes. So the guy who sits home with his wife and does nothing, has an income well beyond anything he ever dreamed. How does that feel to a regular worker who is busting his butt every day in the factory earning $70,000 pre-tax. . It will mean continued high unemployment since there is negative incentive to go to work. You wonder how these idiots in Congress can justify voting for this-or maybe we should not wonder.  With all the extra unemployment payments and the extra subsidies they have received and will receive there is zero reason to have an eviction and foreclosure prohibition. They have the money from my tax money to pay their rent and mortgage payments.

 

When asked how the massive spending would be paid for, Schumer actually said “ We no longer talk about that. Under Modern Monetary Theory-MMT- it is not necessary to have a pay for”. If nothing else, that should scare the crap out of everyone.

 

The stupidest idea yet from the Dems is to have the nuclear trigger a matter of a committee vote including members of Congress. The whole point is it takes 37 minutes right now for a Russian missile to land in the US. China about the same. We need to launch before 37 minutes to have a credible deterrent. That is the entire point of deterrence. Take that timing away, and deterrence disappears. How dumb can these Dems be. There seems to be no limit.

 

When asked why requiring photo ID to be able to vote, Debbie Dingell gave the Dem response- it is a “threat”, but requiring it to buy a beer, enter a NY office building, check into a hotel, or get medical treatment it is not a threat.

 

On February 14, I suggested that by May 1 there will be 245 million with shots, or immune people due to they had the virus, or are kids.  Here are new numbers from the drug companies and CDC. As of February 27 there are 72 million shots given, not the 50 million Biden went on TV to claim. By March 1 it is  74 million. ( It would have been 6 million more if not for the weather issues). 33% were second shots so net 49-50 million had at least a first shot.  Moderna  said they will do over 45 million (at least 11 million per week) , or more, in March-possibly 50 million, Pfizer 45 million, and J&J 20 million in March, or a total of 110 million, or more, with at least one shot, additional by March 31. Assume 40% of the March shots are second shots (net 66 million first shots).

 

So net, there will be a total people with first shots in arms of 116 +- million by April 1. That happens to be almost the same number Trump’s head of Warp Speed said it would be by that date back in early January. Assume another 125 million shots in April of which 30% are second shots since J&J is just one shot, so add 88 million more with at least one shot. Total with one shot by Aril 30 -204 million+-.  And there may be more if they slow the time for the second shot which is now being considered. Add on at least 30 million (the actual number may be 50 Million) who are immune from having had the virus for a total of 234 million +. That is 71% of the US population by May 1. That number does not include kids under 18 (72 million). So at least 300 million have one shot, or are kids unlikely to get sick. Those numbers come from the drug companies and CDC, not me. Biden said 100 million shots by May 1.

 

So you see the truth is being hidden to make the $1.9 Trillion look essential. Johns Hopkins has said we will have herd immunity by May 1, and that looks correct, and is now supported by the drug company numbers. Thus the economy and schools should be fully reopen before May 1, which has been my contention, and the White House and Fauci are lying so they try to can claim they need the spending, and that they did better than forecast by Trump’s plan. J&J alone is going too far exceed what the White House had been saying they would do, so we now know the Biden chief of staff intentionally lied about that as well. Biden just talks about the shots since January 20 ignoring 17 million before that.

 

We are being intentionally mislead for political purposes. And they attacked Trump for how he communicated on the virus. If you assume 25% refuse the shots then by May 1 everyone who wants a shot should be able to get one. And they can start on kids over 15 at that time probably and get most of them by June 1if they do it in schools. Keep in mind Fauci has been wrong on several things, and he is always driven by everything has to be proven in a clinical trial.  He may be largely responsible for the economic devastation we have suffered, and all the non-Covid deaths  that occurred as a result of the lockdowns. There is no proof vaccinated people don’t transmit, so they are now saying we are not safe yet even with the shots.  That makes no logical sense to me. I am betting that by mid-May most mask mandates will be gone as they already are in some states.

 

We do not reinforce stopping Nordstream pipeline in Germany which has huge geopolitical consequences, but we shut down Trans Canada, and now maybe Dakota which has jobs and  national security issues for the US.  Create jobs and massive national security risks in Germany, and kill jobs here. More Biden clear thinking.

 

Biden says he will no longer communicate with the Saudi Prince.  The Prince runs the country, not his father who will die soon. Russia has now quickly  moved into the void, and Putin has already begun to work with the Prince.  Great message to Iran, and Israel who had struck a critical  anti-Iran relationship with the Prince.  So now we cut off arms to Saudi, cut out their leader, and refuse to work with them on Yemen, allowing Iran to move more aggressively there. At the same time Biden presses S Korea to release $1 billion sanctioned dollars to Iran.  Another great achievement for Biden to lose a key ally and strengthen Iran in just one month. These people in the White House do not seem to understand anything about realpolitik. Biden is quickly making the world far more dangerous as they all understand how weak he is, and how misguided the White House policies are. This really is an extension of the terrible policies of Obama run by Susan Rice and Kerry

 

Iran turned down the EU sponsored meeting with the US unless Biden pre-agrees to lift some sanctions after the meeting. Anyone who has spent a lot of time negotiating deals understands the game Iran is splaying. This is the real test for Biden -does he let himself get pushed around and intimidated by Kerry, Rice and the EU, the way Obama folded on his red line which had very bad repercussions for the rest of his term, or does he stand firm and make a statement about US resolve. My bet is Biden folds, and tries to cover his weakness with diplomatic nonsense talk.

 

Today only 33% of students graduate college in 4 years. Only 57% graduate within 6 years. 35% of all student loans are delinquent. Obviously many did not take school seriously, but they still took loans. Some take 6 years, and some just drop out. Some take  courses in useless subjects like ethnic or gender studies, or other subjects where they will never earn a good enough salary to justify the huge loans they take.  Students and their counselors and parents need to calculate what is a typical salary one might earn with the course of study, and then see what is a realistic loan they can afford. Or they can do what I, and many of my friends did- we worked while going to school so we would not have to borrow more than we could repay. We all repaid our loans.

 

So now the Dems are trying to buy votes for 2022 by saying they will forgive student loans.  What a great lesson to kids. Borrow whatever you wish, drop out of school, and we will later forgive part or all of it. That is a real lesson in financial responsibility. If they forgive $10,000, or $50,000, what about all the people who did without things for years to repay their loans. Do they get a refund? Or what about the worker who could not afford college, and did not want the burden of a loan, and so did not have a loan, but whose tax dollars are now repaying the loans of those irresponsible borrows. Does he get a check. Universities need to be on the hook for part of these loans.

 

Now CA says boy toys and girl toys cannot be separated on store shelves, or the store will get fined. They really have lost their minds. Now government dictates how a store does its merchandising. That will lead to even worse government dictates. The newly nominated deputy HHS secretary is a trans woman who refused to say it is bad to give kids drugs to stop puberty. This is what Biden has brought you with his “diverse cabinet”. Make sure everyone recalls that in 2022. Boys and girls are really different except as to having equal opportunity to succeed. Maybe they need a class in hormones and anatomy, and a lesson on that little kids don’t have the ability to choose their sex at 4 years old. Hasbro says no more gender identification for Mr Potato Head.

 

The new “Equity Law “ passed by the House will kill girls high school and college sports. And now we have another incident at Smith College where the innocent white workers are sacrificed to the ideology of race, even after it was proven the black girl made totally false claims. So now if you are white it is OK to be falsely accused and have your life ruined publicly, but blacks can make up false claims and put them on the internet, and be believed, and apologized to by the college. (see attached above). The Navy, of which I am an alumni, now has insane rules about race and gender. Everyone is now part of “systemic racism”. 

 

For me -I have had enough of this crap. I have nothing to apologize, or be guilty for, nor do you. I am very happy being a heterosexual wealthy white male who earned every penny I have. We need to get back to merit, and we are all equal in opportunity, not outcome.  Nature made males and females throughout all animal species. I am tired of ads all showing mixed race couples  -use one or the other race for both actors, but there are not millions of mixed race marriages. Now if you are black, or if you can’t figure out what sex you are, you get special treatment.  We can’t afford to provide a good living to those who are not working to the point they are far better off economically to sit home than to work.

 

White people in the US did not invent discrimination or slavery in the world, and it goes on right now in China, and other places. Biden won’t talk to the Prince over “human rights issues”, but he calls Xi and Putin. Whatever happened in the 19th century in the US  happened in that context, and we cannot apply today’s standards to 175 years ago. In the early 20th century Jews, Irish and Italians were badly discriminated against. The problem is history is no longer taught in school, and whatever is taught is framed with left wing ideology, so kids today have no context to anything, and do not even know of the past legal and other battles that today allow them the ultimate freedom and opportunities they have.

 

By comparison the US has done a massively better job than most as to equality than anywhere else on the planet. There is not systemic racism.  Nobody even knows what that means. Cops are almost all great people putting their lives on the line for us to keep the world from spinning into total mayhem. Several cops got shot this past week. Where is the left or press saying anything about that. The pandemic is everywhere in the world, but shootings are in the Woodlawn area of Chicago. Don’t blame the cops or white people, or the virus. University presidents and corporate CEO’s need to grow a set of balls, and stand up for free speech, and an end to this racial BS. Blacks now have all sorts of opportunities, and they need to do what we all did -study and work hard to succeed. Earn it. Giving people entry to universities, jobs, or good grades they do not earn, or free money, just because they are black, is not going to solve anything. It is discrimination, and just breeds anger, and more baseless demands, and false charges against employers. 

 

I am fed up with the anti-cop claims of genocide when there are more blacks shot in Chicago on a typical weekend by other blacks, than there are unarmed blacks shot in an entire year across the whole country by cops. If they really meant black lives mattered, they would be on the streets of Chicago and Harlem every weekend to stop the true genocide of black on black shootings. How come Asians can be discriminated against at Harvard and other schools, including the attempt to do it in NYC by DeBlasio in the elite high schools, and attacked on the street in San Fran and LA, but we hear crickets from the White House nor anyone on the left  in Congress. Enough of this left wing university ideology, and cancel culture. They are not going to tell me what news program I can hear, what books I can read, nor what I can say. I still live in America, not Nazi Germany. We all need to speak out against what is happening, and vote in 2022.

 

If you want  an example of real racism, look at teachers refusing to teach. Rich white kids are in private or parochial school, or teaching pods. They have good internet.  Poor black kids are getting no education, and are having their lives ruined, yet Biden does nothing to stop this.

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Two trillion dollar Covid Relief bill is meant to bail out failed Democrat pension funds and mismanagement of cities etc.


Prelude to a State Pension Bailout

Rescuing multiemployer plans is unwise and signals a willingness to do the same with failing state and local funds.

By Andrew G. Biggs

After decades of mismanagement, state and local government pensions face unfunded liabilities topping $4.2 trillion. When a major public plan finally runs dry, you can bet Congress will bail it out no matter the crippling cost. Congressional Democrats’ Covid-relief package includes a multibillion-dollar bailout for union-affiliated private-sector multiemployer pensions. If politicians will bail out truckers’ and coal miners’ pensions, why would they turn away teachers and firefighters?

Multiemployer pensions are jointly run by labor unions and employers, often within the same or related industries. The most prominent, the financially troubled Central States plan, covers roughly 400,000 workers and retirees from more than 1,000 trucking companies. These pensions run on a mutual-insurance basis: Participating employers must cover the benefits promised by any employer that either goes bankrupt or withdraws from the plan. The reward for this unusual funding mechanism is much looser funding requirements and lower premiums to the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp.—the federal agency that acts as a pension safety net.

But the mutual-insurance system is itself a critical flaw: Sometimes whole industries decline and pension funding disappears, as with trucking. Federal rules made the problem worse by allowing businesses to withdraw without funding all promised benefits.

Multiemployer pensions also significantly overestimated their future investment returns. In a 2017 study, the Government Accountability Office found that if Central States had received the 7.5% annual return it assumed from 2000 to 2014, it would have ended that period 91% funded. Instead, Central States received only 4.9% returns, leaving its funding at 40% and declining.

Today, more than 100 multiemployer pensions face “critical and declining” funding, according to the PBGC. Central States’ portfolio is expected to run dry in 2025, with other plans to follow. The PBGC’s multiemployer insurance fund will be exhausted by 2027.

Ordinarily, insolvency means pension freezes and benefit reductions, but multiemployer pensions are run by labor unions, a key Democratic constituency. And so the House Covid bill plans to dole out an estimated $86 billion from 2022 to 2024 to 186 pensions, enabling these plans to pay full benefits through 2051. With no incentive to cut costs, there’s little reason to think the pensions will be solvent after 2051. Look forward to more spending down the road.

Bailout supporters argue they’re helping impoverished workers make ends meet, but that doesn’t add up. The average monthly benefit from a plan like Central States is a seemingly modest $1,400. But that average is skewed downward by large numbers of employees who retired after only a few years of service. The one-third of Central States retirees who receive more than $2,000 a month—plus Social Security benefits—make a bailout expensive. No one in this group is even close to being in poverty.

But leave aside the many problems with this bailout—including that the plans’ insolvency has nothing to do with Covid, and Democrats reduced the duration of extended unemployment benefits to help fund the pensions.

The larger worry is that Congressional Democrats’ willingness to bail out private-sector multiemployer pensions signals they would do the same for state and local employee plans. Public-employee pensions operate under the same loose funding rules as multiemployer pensions, and public plans in Illinois, Kentucky, New Jersey, Texas and other states are no better funded than the worst multiemployer plans.

Many public pensions have a history of poor stewardship, increasing benefits in good times and failing to make their pension contributions when the economy turns downward. Will a Democratic Congress turn away unionized public employees when it already has bailed out union-run private sector pensions? At this point, the assumption has to be no.

Mr. Biggs is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.

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