Read Here
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Pocahontas Hypocrisy?
Breaking: MUST SEE! Elizabeth Warren Just said the Most Hypocritical Statement EVER!
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A warning to Americans from a woman in the former Yugoslavia:
A Warning from Yugoslavia – Don’t Follow What We Did
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I have urged all readers of my memo to read "Start Up Nation." One of my long time dear friend and fellow memo reader took my advice several years ago and wrote this review:Start-Up Nation
The Story of Israel’s Economic Miracle
By Dan Senor
And Saul Singer
I heard about and took interest in this book from my Angel Investing activities and general interest
in economics. Read most of it on HHI while on vacation during the week of 9/14/19 to 9/21/19.
Start-Up Nation is the story of Israel’s unique start-up culture. Israel, a nation that didn’t exist
until created by the Allies after WWII, Israel, a nation of scant natural resources and (initially)
scant population, became a global power house for innovation and the creation of new,
start-up companies. But how? This is the question posed by 28 visiting Harvard classmates that
in April, 2001 inspired Dan Senor and Saul Singer to write Start-Up Nation. The answer as Senor
and Singer explain is due to a confluence of influences unique to Israel driven primarily by its
military and cultural origins.
Since its creation, Israel has had to fight for its existence. Surrounded, isolated (boycotted), and
regularly attacked by its Arab (Muslim) neighbors, Israel is dependent on its military so active
military service followed by 30 years of reserve duty is compulsory for practically every Israeli
citizen. The consequence is the creation of lifetime networks of trusted compatriots
encompassing all skill sets and strata of society – fertile ground for assembling the personnel
needed to start new ventures.
Culturally, Jews are raised to think independently and challenge authority when necessary. As a
consequence, Israelis have in their cultural DNA the ability to spot opportunities. And in the
Israeli culture failures are valued for the experience gained rather than viewed as stigmas, and
chutzpah to a certain degree is considered an attribute.
Of course there are many other factors which contribute to Israel’s start-up success which
Senor and Singer skillfully wove into their book through firsthand accounts of Israel’s start-up
leaders. For anyone interested in entrepreneurial-ism, innovation, venture capital, economics in
general, and Harvard Professor Porter’s theory of economic clusters in particular, Start-Up
Nation makes a worthwhile read.
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Can this become a headache for Biden or will he, with help from the press, finesse it?
One More Ross Rant:
It is clear now that the banks are in excellent capital condition and are able to carry on fully despite the shutdown and economic conditions. That is essential to the economic recovery and a short recession, unlike any other time in US history. Other than CMBS, the capital markets have mostly stabilized and capital flows are now normalized in most cases. Companies can sell bonds, IPO’s can happen, trading in stocks and most bonds is normalized to the degree it can be under these conditions. The Fed achieved a very successful outcome. It is also clear that we will have ultra-low rates for the next two years, and possibly longer. Savings has risen substantially, incomes are up and according to JP Morgan, personal balance sheets are in good shape despite what is happening. Roughly half the people who have forbearance on mortgages and credit cards have made some payments. This is unprecedented in a recession. Good news. The issue is what happens next as the virus surges and partial shutdowns increase again. The $600 runs out in two weeks and hopefully many of the 30 million who collected more than their regular wages will mostly return to work.
There will possibly be a new stimulus package, but who knows since Pelosi is fighting ending the $600 and she is against liability protection. Ignore the press anecdotes of people who say they do not know what they will do once the $600 ends. They never had that money when they were working, but they paid their bills. Even Jamie Dimon has now said he has no idea where we go from here, and he has the best data and a whole economics department available to him. I agree, it is too murky now with the resurgence, plus the unknown of what Congress will, or will not do. Maybe there will another round of PPP as well as payroll tax cuts. I remain fully invested for now with a bias to the upside because there is so much cash around and zero return on bonds, plus there seems to be a very good chance there will be a lot more good news about a vaccine over the next 60 days.
The world is not going to recover from the economic disruption for a long time. Emerging markets have been devasted, the ranks of the poverty stricken have been once again expanded by tens of millions, the EU may not survive this as a unified group, and China and the US are now in a true cold war situation for years to come. If Biden is elected it will be China as supreme in a few years. Russia and the EU are now sideshows. The entire geopolitical set of relations and interactions for the world will never be the same after the pandemic. The next few years are most likely to be chaotic and potentially violent, as China tries to gain advantage, and as the newly poverty stricken wage war or terrorism, or other disruptions.
The stock market will be determined by who wins the election. If Trump wins it will rise. If Biden wins, I am out completely. The new taxes and regulations will be destructive in ways we have never before seen. The deficit will skyrocket out of control on top of what we have just seen with the virus impact. Unemployment will rise and the tariffs will come off China which will drive steel and other industries back into problems. The dollar will probably drop and the oil industry will go partially bankrupt. The Paris accord will be reinstated costing hundreds of millions of your money, and Iran will be released from sanctions creating major new problems and instability in the Mideast. The banks will be under attack and CFPB will be reinstated and seriously damage the lending business. The oil industry will be under relentless attack and there will be no more pipelines, so there will be energy shortages of natural gas. That is for starters. The claim that historically when Dems win the market goes up 10% has no application this time. These are not Democrats-they are “progressives”-left wing ideologues.
The banks took advantage of low expectations to book huge loss reserves in Q2, which will set them up to report better than expected results going forward. Their Q2 reserves will eat the coming loan losses. Many other companies will also book various reserves to cover problems in coming quarters. Therefore, I expect earnings in Q3 and Q4 to beat expectations as the CFOs can dump problems into their reserve accounts. With vaccine trials going very well and very accelerated, especially the Oxford/Astra Zeneca version, there may be a vaccine ready by fall. If the next set of trials now underway are reported to go very well, and if Q3 earnings do beat, as I expect, the stock market will rally much further into October when we will be able to see if Trump has recouped and can win. That is the point at which I make my stay or sell decision.
I keep commenting on China being an existential threat. They are much more so now, and if Biden wins, they will dominate the world in a few years. They are trying to completely take over the S China Sea. Having sailed there in the Navy, I know what a key waterway it is to world trade. It has many natural resources. The US Navy is all that stands between them and a complete control of the waters. They have destroyed the Hong Kong we all knew, and set the tone for where they are going with Taiwan. Again, it is only the US Navy that stops them from invading Taiwan. It will likely happen if Biden is president. They are using trade to co-opt Germany and the EU. They already have effective financial and trade control of the emerging markets of SE Asia. They will be the dominant party in Iran after the arms embargo expires in October and the UN refuses to renew it because Russia and China will veto any renewal. They are rebuilding their military at a very fast pace. Finally Japan has awakened to the real threat and is rebuilding its military. India is now doing the same. If we can get both to make major military buildups and along with S Korea form a military shield along with Australia, then we have a chance to stop them. That seems to be happening now, but we will need to see how much of a buildup they do and if Biden wins, if he cuts back US military buildup.
If you watch all of this you see a replay of WWII. Germany Italy- China Russia. Hong Kong is Czechoslovakia. Taiwan will be Poland. The massive military buildup is the same. Germany being more interested in trade than reality is Chamberlain. Chinese bribing US academia as they did with the Harvard professor, is widespread. Their Confucius Centers is their intelligence gathering efforts. Their Belt and Road program has given them control of vital infrastructure, such as ports and transportation systems, and financial leverage on numerous countries. Their propaganda online and on campus is making deep inroads putting forth anti-America, anti- police, anti-military spending, that you see playing out on campus and now on the streets. Trump and Pompeo understand it well as does the FBI, but the Dems seem oblivious. Joe said China is not competition. The world is in a very dangerous place now, and the November election will be critical.
The world is in an economic recession not seen since 1932. The lockdowns were disastrous. It makes many countries very susceptible to Chinese financial and trade manipulation.
Bari Weiss, the NYTimes reporter who wrote that critical letter had it right. She exposed for all the final corruption of the free press. It is no longer. It has become a left wing propaganda machine conforming to the dictates of what happened on campus that I have been warning about for several years. As she points out, the mob is now in control of the newsroom. The editors have lost control. CNN and NBC have become media arms of the DNC to the point a couple of their own reporters have criticized what they have become. Andrew Sullivan, a left wing gay reporter at NY Magazine, just resigned and wrote a similar letter as Weiss, and he is very left. BLM has been legitimized by the media and the Dems, but they admit they are really a Marxist organization. And there is DeBozzo and the mayor of DC painting the BLM initials on the streets.
The crime situation has become so bad that even DeBozzo admits they need a new plan. What they need is to end bail reform, bring back the anti-crime undercover units, bring back stop and frisk, and get rid of the new law that makes it almost impossible for a cop to arrest a resisting perp without himself getting in trouble. It is total insanity in NY now. They wanted an end to stop and frisk and we predicted many more young blacks will die. That is exactly what has happened, except now it includes little kids getting shot.
Not restarting in person school will be a new disaster for the country. Kids cannot really learn if not in school. Online has been shown to not work. Poor kids are especially set back and will never recover or catch up. The teachers union seems to think that they can sacrifice the kids for their own political gain by keeping parents home and keeping unemployment high, thereby helping Biden win. I have criticized the teachers unions for years as being worse than any terrorist threat. Now you see that play out in CA and other Dem run cities and states. All the pediatric experts say kids need to be in school, but the unions and Dem governors are ignoring that for their own political ends. The rest of the world has sent their kids back to school full time with no problems.
Seven months ago I suggested that RBG would not finish the year on the court based on the experience of my friend who had the exact same track of disease. He passed away three weeks ago. She will not likely be on the court next session. One thing about my friend that tracks with her- his mind stayed very sharp to the end. It is too late for Trump to name her replacement and get whoever confirmed, so the election is decisive for the future of the court.
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Trump made a huge mistake! He challenged Biden's mental ability. The mistake is Trump presupposed Biden has a brain. I am told Joe made the biggest mistake of his life when he turned down Ray Bolger's Role in "The Wizard of Oz."
Before the campaign ends Trump is going to get under Biden's thin skin and provoke him and it could cause Biden to pop off and probably harm himself.
And:
Biden presents himself as tough but he really is thin skinned and will go very low to win. He has now surrounded himself with a person who prefers pigs over police.
And:
As Biden goes far left because of OAS pressure, he gets an ear full:
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