Saturday, March 21, 2020

Trying To Be Relevant,. China Maneuvers. Giving Off Odors.What Now And When People Are Wrong.


Corona Isn't Trump's fault.
Ebola wasn't Obama's.
Sars wasn't Bush's
and only a handful of cases of herpes was Clinton's
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For better or worse, Trump is the one out front when it comes to the government's  face with respect to who is in charge of fighting the Coronavirus crisis.

Biden is now about ready to inject himself so he can appear relevant.  Will it work? Stay tuned.

Coronavirus presidential briefings: Joe Biden tries to get into the act



That old Walter Mitty thing doesn't stop for Joe Biden.

He was there as vice president at the Parkland shooting. He was shot at in Iraq. He was a coal miner. His chopper was shot down by bin Laden himself over Afghanistan. Always the irrelevant placeholder, dating at least from his Obama years when he had to beg Obama to quit making fun of him, the former vice president and now Democratic frontrunner has now decided to conduct pretend-presidential briefings on the coronavirus crisis to upstage President Trump.
According to Fox News:
The all-but-certain Democratic presidential nominee – in a conference call with political reporters – also said that as early as Monday he hopes to be holding near-daily briefings regarding the pandemic that’s swept across the nation, which could serve as a political counterbalance to the daily briefings the president and government officials have been giving the past week from the White House.
“I want to be in daily or least in significant contact with the American people and communicate what I would be doing, what I think we should be doing, and how we should be doing it,” Biden emphasized. 
“Hopefully by Monday we’re going to be in a very different place in terms of the ability to be in communications with all of you,” Biden explained.
That's all fine and dandy for persuading a skeptical electorate that, despite his handsiness, his mental lapses, and his gaffes, that he really is a presidential type.
But it leaves a bad taste at a time like this one. President Trump is leading the nation for real from the coronavirus crisis, bearing all the weight of his office, often looking haggard and stressed, and now he's got this icky backseat driver, trying to score public relations points for himself and win votes by playing president behind him, often repeating Trump's own decisions and claiming them as his own. Biden knows the nation is rallying around Trump, as in wartime, and instead of support him on this one thing as the rest of the nation is doing, Biden is exploiting the briefings by mirroring them for his own advantage. He's trying to pretend to be President Trump. It's little different from his recent plagiarization of Trump's steps to halt the coronavirus, claiming that that plan was all his own.
For Biden to put up some cocked up version of the presidential briefing in order to get attention for himself, impersonating the actual president is frankly revolting. It's nothing but a selfish, pathetic and desperate bid to stay in the news and seem relevant. It's likely he's getting some feedback that the gambit is working for him. But being Joe Biden, he's also likely to reveal just how out of touch he is. This Breitbart story from yesterday shows Biden in all his clueless glory:
During a call with reporters, the Democrat frontrunner said he is “desperately” looking to be in contact with Americans, and, “They tell me there’s ways we can do teleconferencing via us all being in different locations.”
Apparently, he's just heard of this, no malarkey, kiddos. 
My money's on him making more indications of his own irrelevance from this stunt. That's just who he is. 

Meanwhile:

Will the nation responsible for this disaster become the beneficiary because of their ability to outwit the world?
Never undersell the world's gullibility nor China's adeptness at propaganda.
Campbell & Doshi, Foreign Affairs
And also because:
Mark Hemingway, RealClearPolitics
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Was the liquidation of portfolios by certain members of Congress hyped by the mass media, inelegant behaviour, unwise politically, appropriate behaviour outside the scope of the insider trading law? If the latter should the law be changed with respect to Congresspersons and be tightened? You decide or is it too early because the true facts have not been revealed?

My own view is probably some of all and I get the image of males deserting the Titanic while women remain aboard. Somethings just give off an odor.
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Scoping out the impact - one man's mostly dire view. Can one even reach any meaningful conclusions when there is so much fluidity , newness and lack of actual history? Man has always been inventive and the desire to survive is powerful but nature, at times, can be overwhelming.  Americans are an inventive/resourceful people in large measure because we are free, but what now?

Has Coronavirus Just Triggered The Next Great Depression?

I am wrapping my head around this as best I can. The major upheavals that we are seeing play out right in front of our eyes. And the follow-on ramifications of this Coronavirus and how it will likely impact our way of life for quite some time to come.
Doom and gloom for dramatic effect? No. I really have serious concerns about where we’re headed. So lets talk about this as rationally, sensibly, and logically as possible.
This Coronavirus is a Black Swan event. It came out of nowhere. Not foreseen. How could it? It’s brand new, and quite likely a bio-weapon that ‘leaked’ from China’s only Level-4 microbiology lab at Wuhan Institute of Virology, China.
Highly contagious, COVID-19 Coronavirus is forecast to kill millions. As a result, panic and fear has triggered massive panic buying of food and consumable supplies. Why? Because people are realizing they will need to shelter in place. And they don’t know for how long. So they’re buying whatever they can. Because they don’t produce any themselves.
The stock market subset (DJIA) (Dow Jones) had peaked just about near 30,000. In a very short time it lost almost one third of its value down to ~20,000. The FED lowered their rates to zero. Announced essentially another QE (quantitative easing). They shot their bazooka. No more ammo. Desperation.
Word has it that some major banks are in trouble. We all know that the globe is in a MASSIVE debt bubble. The derivatives that interweave among so many financial institutions are so stunning in magnitude (exposure) that it’s really impossible to comprehend (at least for me). A falling domino could cause a chain reaction collapse of the entire system.

You aint seen nothin yet…

We are in the early stages of the effects that Coronavirus COVID-19 will play out. You’ve probably heard the phrase, “You ain’t seen nothin yet…”. I believe that months from now, this will be staggering. Why? Algebra. If you don’t understand basic algebra (high school, remember?), then you won’t get it. It’s the curve. And this one is going up…

The Effects Of Distancing

Self isolation. Quarantines. Social distancing. Stay home. Don’t go to restaurants, bars, public gatherings. Stop non-discretionary travel. On and on… all common sense methods to flatten the curve.
People get sick, confirmed positive for Coronavirus. Resulting in countless prior exposed people at work. Businesses shutting down as the contagion extends. People losing income – not working – layoffs – a chain reaction. All more fuel for the financial/economic meltdown.

Reliance on China | The Impact

Coronavirus has deeply affected the distribution supply lines and availability of product from China. Apparently up to 97% of one pharmaceutical ingredient or another used to come from China. No longer. It won’t be long and that’s going to really hurt. How long to resource and ramp up from somewhere else? This doesn’t happen overnight. In fact, much, much longer than that.
There are countless other integral parts that we are no longer getting. This has impacted countless businesses and is showing up as shortages of final product. This will only get worse as Coronavirus ramps up here, and elsewhere.

Food & Supplies | It’s Going To Get Worse

Food. Wow. This is the biggest. Everyone has seen it by now. Empty shelves at your grocery stores. It’s surreal. How can this happen in ‘merica ? Well guess what – it just did. Good luck finding the food staples that you’re looking for at this point… Much of it is simply, increasingly, gone.
My great concern is this… Many might think that those empty shelves will back-fill soon enough. People will stop panic buying and the distribution will catch up. However, it may not be as quickly as you think.
Panic begets more panic. When shoppers see empty shelves (of whatever), they will snatch up ANY replacement inventory the second it hits the shelves. Why? Because they fear it will be gone again. It’s a natural human reaction (survival). We are seeing this today, right now, as of this writing. It’s getting worse.
What happens as more and more people within the supply chain systems begin to get Coronavirus? How many of those systems will be partially shut down due to self isolation or quarantine?
What about the truckers? Did you know that when the truck’s stop, it’s over?

How Long Will This Go On?

We don’t know. We’re in uncharted waters. It feels like the perfect storm. Lots of things coming together at once, to create a potential disaster beyond what we’ve ever imagined.
I am concerned about Coronavirus. However I am MORE concerned about the possibility of follow-on affects that may change our lives as we know it.
Might the entire globe be launched into a ‘Greater Depression’ as too many systems break while most people struggle to survive through shortages and increasing violent reactions?
Normalcy Bias. We all have it. There is a desire for things to remain the same – status quo. It is difficult to imagine or accept major changes. But it feels like they’re coming.
There are lots of things that can go wrong from here. Being overly optimistic in the face of these circumstances, in my view, is foolish. It is wise to think it through to the extent that you can. Stay informed. Get prepared. Think seriously about the ramifications if it gets much worse. The things you can do now, to help mitigate it.

Your Opinion

Lets discuss.
Could we be headed towards life-altering times in which Coronavirus becomes the catalyst to change our lives for the foreseeable future? How so?
Or will the markets rebound to new record highs, the virus vanish into the sunset, and all supply disruptions regain their normalcy soon enough? How so?




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