As I so wrote several memos ago:
"---Fox’s Tucker Carlson has new predicted that the Democratic party will eventually replace former Vice President Joe Biden with someone else.
---Carlson then predicted the person who will replace Biden is New York Governor Andrew Cuomo.
You can read the full details of this story here."
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Joel Rants again.
There are several important differences this time from 2008. Now the economy was essentially strong going into this, and on the verge of a new growth pattern, the banking system is very strong, unemployment was at an all time low, savings by consumers were very high compared to most prior periods, mortgage rates were near historic lows so most consumers had a good debt service to income ratio, there was little excess lending in real estate, and almost none in housing, stock prices were at record highs, oil prices were very low, inflation was near zero, consumer confidence was near record highs, and taxes were relatively low. The Fed had lowered rates materially before the crash, and moved immediately to go to zero, and to flood the capital markets with liquidity. In summary, things were generally good economically, even though the rest of the world economy was weak. The area of weakness, or risk, was the corporate and junk bond markets which were over levered, but at relatively low interest rates.
So, as opposed to other crashes, there was a lot of basic strength economically, generally moderate leverage by consumers, and most important, the financial system was in very solid shape. Banks passed stress tests that were not far off what is currently happening. That will make all the difference to get us out of this. The other thing this time is the willingness of the Fed and Treasury, and Trump to do whatever it takes immediately to provide liquidity to the system which is the real key to minimizing the damage. On Friday evening the Fed stepped in to buy huge amounts of GSE paper that unclogged the system. They are unlikely to support CMBS. Their focus will be on bank liquidity, RMBS, and keeping the system liquid and functioning. Individuals and small companies will have cash in hand by mid to third week in April.
Unlike all other crashes, and especially under Obama/Biden where it took months, this time the Fed Treasury, and Congress acted with unheard of speed to get ahead of collapse. Getting cash in people's hands immediately, and cash into the hands of small business instantly, is completely different than all other times. The combination
of all of these factors will provide the opportunity to get the economy back in good shape by year end, assuming they find a virus therapy soon, and they can start to open some parts of the country in two weeks. There has never been a shock to the system where the economy generally, and consumers overall, were in such good shape going in. There are a lot of very good things now in place to set a basis for reasonable recovery over the last two quarters of 2020.
In a capitalist system, owners find creative ways to survive, and they will this time aided by the new government subsidies to small and large companies and to consumers. The $3400 per family for two months on top of unemployment guaranteeing full salary for four months will make a giant difference. It means most middle and low income consumers will get more money from this than from working. Bad policy, but good for rebuilding consumer confidence.
By year end, my strategy of investing in US large cap equities, and not bonds, will prove itself. Stocks are already up over 20% from the crash bottom, and by year end they could be up another 15%, or more, or less. The higher the index the harder to gain big percentages on higher numbers. If there is a real rebound in Q4, the S&P could conceivably be back at 3000, but that might be a stretch. Not inconceivable by year end if Trump is reelected. Given the extraordinary flood of funding from the Fed and Treasury, bonds could get crushed by year end as rates rise as concern over the deficit rises, and as CMBS and junk bond defaults mount.
Right now there is chaos in the bond markets, especially for CMBS and junk rated bonds. If you are in a bond fund prepare yourself to lose money, depending on what the portfolio consists of, and maybe you could lose a lot. We will see how this all plays out over the next 3 months. Whoever told you to buy bonds to be safe, and put you in a bond fund, should get his head handed to him. The whole mantra that bonds are safe is like in 2008, that home prices never decline. All stupid BS by young people with no experience. There is nothing that cannot ever lose money. There have been a lot of margin calls and hedges fell apart for some bond funds. If there are a lot of defaults by hotels and retail, which is very likely, then bond funds could get killed.
The Fed is buying RMBS (residential mortgages) to stabilize that market, and that is working, but CMBS ( commercial mortgages) has no buyers, and defaults are going to begin very soon. RMBS will be impacted by the deferral of payment on mortgagers for 90 days, supported by the Fed. The CMBS servicers are simply not likely to be able to handle the flood of defaults this time. They are likely to be much more prone to just foreclose if the borrower acts like a jerk. Without the Fed, RMBS bonds would tank due to the 90 day payment holiday, and the residential mortgage market would come apart. The Fed has acted to not let that happen.
Hotels and retail simply will not be able to pay their mortgages for quite a while, and many hotel owners will try to take advantage of the situation hoping for cram downs and other modifications of their loans. They are likely to find that they need to infuse a slug of equity instead, and just like 2009, the servicers will not be easy to work with. Most hotels qualify for the small business forgivable loan program, and most owners need to get real and write equity checks. Forgiveness requires that the mortgage was paid on time, so the games hotel owners say they plan to try will not work. Most of the hotel loans are in CMBS pools, and many of the others held by banks are personally guaranteed, and the lenders will require new equity. Servicers now are very good at foreclosure and being tough.
They now know that it is easy to take over a hotel with third party management, or to replace owner managers. The Fed might allow some banks to grant forbearances, but the banks will want to force modifications, more collateral and more equity, and that it be done quickly. I have suggested that hotel owners must take the small business loans, and then infuse equity covering 120 days debt service in escrow with the lender. Then in 150 days when the next debt payment is due, the loan can be reassessed and modified. The owners are dreaming if they think this is some golden opportunity to reduce their loans unscathed, or in court with cram downs. They can cover payroll and overhead out of the new SBA loan program, and that is free money, so they have no excuse for not paying the mortgage at least for one or two months, plus infusing equity. It is going to be very ugly for hotel owners for quite a long time. This is why in my view, owning hotels is a risky business. Every ten or so years there is another crisis to slam the industry.
Thinking you cram do a cram down in this situation is bad thinking. BK takes a lot of lawyer cost and it will be a long time to get a court date. Now it could take years given the level of disaster. Not worth it. Better to call the servicer now and work out some sort of deal, or you will very possibly lose the asset. This is the BK lawyers welfare program so better to do it on your own.
It is unclear what will happen to corporate bonds, but junk rated issues will potentially have a high default rate, yet to be determined. Some CLO's were in problem before, and depending on their portfolio, could be in real trouble. Junk bond funds are selling at deep discounts now. The whole leveraged loan market is likely to be dead for quite a while, which means a lot less leverage for PE firms to use. How bad all of this debt market paper gets is unknown. Nobody knows how to price anything since nobody has any facts on which to assess risk. Bids are being thrown out to the market to see if anyone bites. Some holders are desperate to get cash to meet margin calls and loan payments, and need to sell.
Some investors are going to make a killing. If you are someone who fled equities in the past couple of weeks and leaped into bonds, you are going to get creamed. The other issue is that few lenders will now make a commercial loan since they have nowhere to sell it off, and nobody knows how to price it. Banks or other lenders that hold loans on book are still making loans. The shadow lenders who relied on lines of credit from major banks will be pressed to stay in business given all the defaults that are coming, and no way to make new loans. Shadow lenders were doing around 50% of all new commercial real estate loans. It is unknown if they can maintain their lines of credit. Stocks will go up, bonds will go down as things settle out, as the economy turns around.
Some companies are going out of business despite the stimulus bill. Some will be big. Ford is now rated junk, and its stock sells for $5.00. They are not going out of business, but they might be bought by Volkswagen, or who knows. JC Penny is one that could go away. This crisis is why I have harped on- stick with larger, well managed US corporations, with a strong balance sheet, and a strong brand. They will survive, and thrive, as others struggle or die. ETF's in many cases suffered larger losses than their underlying stocks. Gold is in a really precarious place as physical delivery is impossible right now.
Any European stock or emerging market stock is, in my mind, an insane risk investment. The risk reward trade off is not worth it. Boeing is up 100% from the bottom and rising, Home Depot is up 38%, and rising. And we are just getting going. Amazon is hiring 100,000, others like Dollar General and Wal Mart are hiring thousands. Some parts of the country are starting to go back to work already in places like Tennessee. Most Wall St economists and traders are optimistic that by Q4 things will be reasonably back on track. I agree, but nobody knows.
Given the violent moves in the market over the past couple of weeks, the good news is the market systems worked very well. Trades went through for the most part in all markets, unless it was some bonds where there was simply no bid. You could initiate a stock trade, and it went through instantly without a hitch. That is great. Had it not happened so smoothly, we would have had a real collapse.
Oil is still a mess, and getting worse as the Russians and Saudis continue to play suicide games. The Saudis and Russians continue to see if they can outlast each other, and the US producers. US drillers on average need $34.50 to break even. Inexplicably, and incredibly stupidly, the Dems killed a $3 billion allocation to refill the strategic reserve to save the small producers, and to build reserves at a very low price. Instead the idiots tried to claim it was a bailout for big oil, which it was not.
Sometimes I wonder how these people can be so ignorant. But then they added $75 million for NPR and another $75 million for the Endowment for the Arts, and $25 million for Kennedy Center. That is $175 million that could have paid health workers, bought ventilators, etc. Then they added money for illegals, and for some sort of Africa development fund. This is the height of disgusting and unethical, and then they wonder why Congress has a near zero approval. I want to scream at them. A friend who knows Nancy for 30 years very closely, has always said she is stupid, and just says anything that pops into her head. So let's see, impeachment helped Trump, and now she stops the stimulus bill on Sunday to disrupt everything to add all sorts of left wing garbage. And now she is taking credit for her hard work!!!! I would like her to explain to an unemployed worker why Kennedy Center and NPR, and migrants are getting all this money, and the worker is unemployed.
A lot might change after this. Nobody knows how the Fed ever unwinds all of these trillions on top of the $4 trillion they already have left from 2008. There is a good chance this stimulus is like the Treaty of Versailles. The real damage may not be known and apparent for generations. The mess in the Mideast today is a direct outgrowth of the terrible decisions made over drinks by a few generals drawing lines on a map in 1918 with no regard to religious issues or history. Interest rates will remain low, which will make all this debt politically palatable.
A lot of companies may realize work from home does work well. It may get to be common in some companies. Not good for office landlords. Hard to know what will happen on this as many people like to go to the office for socialization. Online shopping will grow faster. Good for AMZN and WMT, but will just accelerate demise of weak shopping centers. Hard to say what happens to home building. So far it has held up and is likely to remain strong as the demand for new homes far outstrips supply, and will do so for years to come. Investing in homebuilders at this level is likely to be a very good investment. After this house prices might drop as the stock market drop means a lot less wealth to buy. Likely that many will hunker down with savings for quite a while until they feel the economy came through and all is OK. Some people will be permanently scarred by this on top of the 2008 crash.
Banks will be more conservative making loans with more risk protection in loan amount and terms. The banks are going to have a long time getting people back on regular payments of mortgages and loans so they are not going to rush to make new loans. It is not the subprime mess, but this will make for more conservative underwriting. Lots more babies in 9 months. Lots of us looking shaggy waiting for barber shops and beauty parlors to open. Lots of blondes become dark or grey haired. Lots more divorces -being locked in with your spouse can be tense after a while for some couples.
Lots more opioid deaths as people lose their jobs while Pelosi delays help to try to waste money on left wing causes. (The bill could have passed last Sunday but for Pelosi). Deems lose the House over this and Biden slips into the sunset babbling to his broken teleprompter. Senior housing will be slower due to the deaths from the virus, but that will go away as the demand grows. Rent increases will be delayed as the issue is, can I collect any rent for a while, and then collect the back rent. Forget any projection you had on any deal. It no longer applies. If the deal counted on rent increases or lease up in a certain period, forget it until we see what happens on returning the economy to semi-normal. Maybe it will not be so bas once all that stimulus and Fed money moves through the markets, and once people can go back to work. We really don't know. Investors with big brass ones, and cash will make a killing in the next few months.
Congress once again demonstrated why a neutron bomb on DC would be beneficial. Not only did they prove how stupid they are, but how they cannot even focus on an emergency and do what is needed without a lot of political crap like money for Kennedy Center, NPR, $11 BILLION for three international aid groups instead of using the money for US citizens and businesses like the airlines and hotels, and hazardous duty pay to health workers, and on and on. Then they killed the plan to fill the oil reserve at rock bottom prices to also help the oil patch small drillers. (But we need to fund NPR with $75 million and $25 million for Kennedy Center). It makes one want to shake them and see if there is anything inside their skulls. And now there will be another giant bill when they will also try to add a ton of pork to that one. Pelosi already said she will demand all those things deleted in bill number 3 be in bill number 4. Little bothers me, but this has me livid. It is my money they are mis-allocating.
Just think what would be happening if there was no online shopping and free delivery, and no way to work remotely. It would have been a very ugly world where we all would need a gun. In the meantime I still play tennis every day, my club is still open, and the supermarket has food and toilet paper. My boat is still ready to go from my boat lift. Life here on Longboat is still lovely, even if dinners are sometimes frozen dinner by Stouffer.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Pelosi's wish list mostly got shot down. Little of Pelosi’s Wish List Made It Into COVID-19 Relief Bill. That’s a Relief.
So, as opposed to other crashes, there was a lot of basic strength economically, generally moderate leverage by consumers, and most important, the financial system was in very solid shape. Banks passed stress tests that were not far off what is currently happening. That will make all the difference to get us out of this. The other thing this time is the willingness of the Fed and Treasury, and Trump to do whatever it takes immediately to provide liquidity to the system which is the real key to minimizing the damage. On Friday evening the Fed stepped in to buy huge amounts of GSE paper that unclogged the system. They are unlikely to support CMBS. Their focus will be on bank liquidity, RMBS, and keeping the system liquid and functioning. Individuals and small companies will have cash in hand by mid to third week in April.
Unlike all other crashes, and especially under Obama/Biden where it took months, this time the Fed Treasury, and Congress acted with unheard of speed to get ahead of collapse. Getting cash in people's hands immediately, and cash into the hands of small business instantly, is completely different than all other times. The combination
of all of these factors will provide the opportunity to get the economy back in good shape by year end, assuming they find a virus therapy soon, and they can start to open some parts of the country in two weeks. There has never been a shock to the system where the economy generally, and consumers overall, were in such good shape going in. There are a lot of very good things now in place to set a basis for reasonable recovery over the last two quarters of 2020.
In a capitalist system, owners find creative ways to survive, and they will this time aided by the new government subsidies to small and large companies and to consumers. The $3400 per family for two months on top of unemployment guaranteeing full salary for four months will make a giant difference. It means most middle and low income consumers will get more money from this than from working. Bad policy, but good for rebuilding consumer confidence.
By year end, my strategy of investing in US large cap equities, and not bonds, will prove itself. Stocks are already up over 20% from the crash bottom, and by year end they could be up another 15%, or more, or less. The higher the index the harder to gain big percentages on higher numbers. If there is a real rebound in Q4, the S&P could conceivably be back at 3000, but that might be a stretch. Not inconceivable by year end if Trump is reelected. Given the extraordinary flood of funding from the Fed and Treasury, bonds could get crushed by year end as rates rise as concern over the deficit rises, and as CMBS and junk bond defaults mount.
Right now there is chaos in the bond markets, especially for CMBS and junk rated bonds. If you are in a bond fund prepare yourself to lose money, depending on what the portfolio consists of, and maybe you could lose a lot. We will see how this all plays out over the next 3 months. Whoever told you to buy bonds to be safe, and put you in a bond fund, should get his head handed to him. The whole mantra that bonds are safe is like in 2008, that home prices never decline. All stupid BS by young people with no experience. There is nothing that cannot ever lose money. There have been a lot of margin calls and hedges fell apart for some bond funds. If there are a lot of defaults by hotels and retail, which is very likely, then bond funds could get killed.
The Fed is buying RMBS (residential mortgages) to stabilize that market, and that is working, but CMBS ( commercial mortgages) has no buyers, and defaults are going to begin very soon. RMBS will be impacted by the deferral of payment on mortgagers for 90 days, supported by the Fed. The CMBS servicers are simply not likely to be able to handle the flood of defaults this time. They are likely to be much more prone to just foreclose if the borrower acts like a jerk. Without the Fed, RMBS bonds would tank due to the 90 day payment holiday, and the residential mortgage market would come apart. The Fed has acted to not let that happen.
Hotels and retail simply will not be able to pay their mortgages for quite a while, and many hotel owners will try to take advantage of the situation hoping for cram downs and other modifications of their loans. They are likely to find that they need to infuse a slug of equity instead, and just like 2009, the servicers will not be easy to work with. Most hotels qualify for the small business forgivable loan program, and most owners need to get real and write equity checks. Forgiveness requires that the mortgage was paid on time, so the games hotel owners say they plan to try will not work. Most of the hotel loans are in CMBS pools, and many of the others held by banks are personally guaranteed, and the lenders will require new equity. Servicers now are very good at foreclosure and being tough.
They now know that it is easy to take over a hotel with third party management, or to replace owner managers. The Fed might allow some banks to grant forbearances, but the banks will want to force modifications, more collateral and more equity, and that it be done quickly. I have suggested that hotel owners must take the small business loans, and then infuse equity covering 120 days debt service in escrow with the lender. Then in 150 days when the next debt payment is due, the loan can be reassessed and modified. The owners are dreaming if they think this is some golden opportunity to reduce their loans unscathed, or in court with cram downs. They can cover payroll and overhead out of the new SBA loan program, and that is free money, so they have no excuse for not paying the mortgage at least for one or two months, plus infusing equity. It is going to be very ugly for hotel owners for quite a long time. This is why in my view, owning hotels is a risky business. Every ten or so years there is another crisis to slam the industry.
Thinking you cram do a cram down in this situation is bad thinking. BK takes a lot of lawyer cost and it will be a long time to get a court date. Now it could take years given the level of disaster. Not worth it. Better to call the servicer now and work out some sort of deal, or you will very possibly lose the asset. This is the BK lawyers welfare program so better to do it on your own.
It is unclear what will happen to corporate bonds, but junk rated issues will potentially have a high default rate, yet to be determined. Some CLO's were in problem before, and depending on their portfolio, could be in real trouble. Junk bond funds are selling at deep discounts now. The whole leveraged loan market is likely to be dead for quite a while, which means a lot less leverage for PE firms to use. How bad all of this debt market paper gets is unknown. Nobody knows how to price anything since nobody has any facts on which to assess risk. Bids are being thrown out to the market to see if anyone bites. Some holders are desperate to get cash to meet margin calls and loan payments, and need to sell.
Some investors are going to make a killing. If you are someone who fled equities in the past couple of weeks and leaped into bonds, you are going to get creamed. The other issue is that few lenders will now make a commercial loan since they have nowhere to sell it off, and nobody knows how to price it. Banks or other lenders that hold loans on book are still making loans. The shadow lenders who relied on lines of credit from major banks will be pressed to stay in business given all the defaults that are coming, and no way to make new loans. Shadow lenders were doing around 50% of all new commercial real estate loans. It is unknown if they can maintain their lines of credit. Stocks will go up, bonds will go down as things settle out, as the economy turns around.
Some companies are going out of business despite the stimulus bill. Some will be big. Ford is now rated junk, and its stock sells for $5.00. They are not going out of business, but they might be bought by Volkswagen, or who knows. JC Penny is one that could go away. This crisis is why I have harped on- stick with larger, well managed US corporations, with a strong balance sheet, and a strong brand. They will survive, and thrive, as others struggle or die. ETF's in many cases suffered larger losses than their underlying stocks. Gold is in a really precarious place as physical delivery is impossible right now.
Any European stock or emerging market stock is, in my mind, an insane risk investment. The risk reward trade off is not worth it. Boeing is up 100% from the bottom and rising, Home Depot is up 38%, and rising. And we are just getting going. Amazon is hiring 100,000, others like Dollar General and Wal Mart are hiring thousands. Some parts of the country are starting to go back to work already in places like Tennessee. Most Wall St economists and traders are optimistic that by Q4 things will be reasonably back on track. I agree, but nobody knows.
Given the violent moves in the market over the past couple of weeks, the good news is the market systems worked very well. Trades went through for the most part in all markets, unless it was some bonds where there was simply no bid. You could initiate a stock trade, and it went through instantly without a hitch. That is great. Had it not happened so smoothly, we would have had a real collapse.
Oil is still a mess, and getting worse as the Russians and Saudis continue to play suicide games. The Saudis and Russians continue to see if they can outlast each other, and the US producers. US drillers on average need $34.50 to break even. Inexplicably, and incredibly stupidly, the Dems killed a $3 billion allocation to refill the strategic reserve to save the small producers, and to build reserves at a very low price. Instead the idiots tried to claim it was a bailout for big oil, which it was not.
Sometimes I wonder how these people can be so ignorant. But then they added $75 million for NPR and another $75 million for the Endowment for the Arts, and $25 million for Kennedy Center. That is $175 million that could have paid health workers, bought ventilators, etc. Then they added money for illegals, and for some sort of Africa development fund. This is the height of disgusting and unethical, and then they wonder why Congress has a near zero approval. I want to scream at them. A friend who knows Nancy for 30 years very closely, has always said she is stupid, and just says anything that pops into her head. So let's see, impeachment helped Trump, and now she stops the stimulus bill on Sunday to disrupt everything to add all sorts of left wing garbage. And now she is taking credit for her hard work!!!! I would like her to explain to an unemployed worker why Kennedy Center and NPR, and migrants are getting all this money, and the worker is unemployed.
A lot might change after this. Nobody knows how the Fed ever unwinds all of these trillions on top of the $4 trillion they already have left from 2008. There is a good chance this stimulus is like the Treaty of Versailles. The real damage may not be known and apparent for generations. The mess in the Mideast today is a direct outgrowth of the terrible decisions made over drinks by a few generals drawing lines on a map in 1918 with no regard to religious issues or history. Interest rates will remain low, which will make all this debt politically palatable.
A lot of companies may realize work from home does work well. It may get to be common in some companies. Not good for office landlords. Hard to know what will happen on this as many people like to go to the office for socialization. Online shopping will grow faster. Good for AMZN and WMT, but will just accelerate demise of weak shopping centers. Hard to say what happens to home building. So far it has held up and is likely to remain strong as the demand for new homes far outstrips supply, and will do so for years to come. Investing in homebuilders at this level is likely to be a very good investment. After this house prices might drop as the stock market drop means a lot less wealth to buy. Likely that many will hunker down with savings for quite a while until they feel the economy came through and all is OK. Some people will be permanently scarred by this on top of the 2008 crash.
Banks will be more conservative making loans with more risk protection in loan amount and terms. The banks are going to have a long time getting people back on regular payments of mortgages and loans so they are not going to rush to make new loans. It is not the subprime mess, but this will make for more conservative underwriting. Lots more babies in 9 months. Lots of us looking shaggy waiting for barber shops and beauty parlors to open. Lots of blondes become dark or grey haired. Lots more divorces -being locked in with your spouse can be tense after a while for some couples.
Lots more opioid deaths as people lose their jobs while Pelosi delays help to try to waste money on left wing causes. (The bill could have passed last Sunday but for Pelosi). Deems lose the House over this and Biden slips into the sunset babbling to his broken teleprompter. Senior housing will be slower due to the deaths from the virus, but that will go away as the demand grows. Rent increases will be delayed as the issue is, can I collect any rent for a while, and then collect the back rent. Forget any projection you had on any deal. It no longer applies. If the deal counted on rent increases or lease up in a certain period, forget it until we see what happens on returning the economy to semi-normal. Maybe it will not be so bas once all that stimulus and Fed money moves through the markets, and once people can go back to work. We really don't know. Investors with big brass ones, and cash will make a killing in the next few months.
Congress once again demonstrated why a neutron bomb on DC would be beneficial. Not only did they prove how stupid they are, but how they cannot even focus on an emergency and do what is needed without a lot of political crap like money for Kennedy Center, NPR, $11 BILLION for three international aid groups instead of using the money for US citizens and businesses like the airlines and hotels, and hazardous duty pay to health workers, and on and on. Then they killed the plan to fill the oil reserve at rock bottom prices to also help the oil patch small drillers. (But we need to fund NPR with $75 million and $25 million for Kennedy Center). It makes one want to shake them and see if there is anything inside their skulls. And now there will be another giant bill when they will also try to add a ton of pork to that one. Pelosi already said she will demand all those things deleted in bill number 3 be in bill number 4. Little bothers me, but this has me livid. It is my money they are mis-allocating.
Just think what would be happening if there was no online shopping and free delivery, and no way to work remotely. It would have been a very ugly world where we all would need a gun. In the meantime I still play tennis every day, my club is still open, and the supermarket has food and toilet paper. My boat is still ready to go from my boat lift. Life here on Longboat is still lovely, even if dinners are sometimes frozen dinner by Stouffer.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Pelosi's wish list mostly got shot down. Little of Pelosi’s Wish List Made It Into COVID-19 Relief Bill. That’s a Relief.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Knowing of my love of art and museums my number three daughter sent me this link:
https://www.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Sent by along time friend and fellow memo reader who received from a doctor friend.:
Knowing of my love of art and museums my number three daughter sent me this link:
https://www.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Sent by along time friend and fellow memo reader who received from a doctor friend.:
Subject: Covid 19
* The virus is not a living organism, but a protein molecule (DNA) covered by a protective layer of lipid (fat), which, when absorbed by the cells of the ocular, nasal or buccal mucosa, changes their genetic code. (mutation) and convert them into aggressor and multiplier cells.
* Since the virus is not a living organism but a protein molecule, it is not killed, but decays on its own. The disintegration time depends on the temperature, humidity and type of material where it lies.
* The virus is very fragile; the only thing that protects it is a thin outer layer of fat. That is why any soap or detergent is the best remedy, because the foam CUTS the FAT (that is why you have to rub so much: for 20 seconds or more, to make a lot of foam). By dissolving the fat layer, the protein molecule disperses and breaks down on its own.
* HEAT melts fat; this is why it is so good to use water above 77 degrees Fahrenheit for washing hands, clothes and everything. In addition, hot water makes more foam and that makes it even more useful.
* Alcohol or any mixture with alcohol over 65% DISSOLVES ANY FAT, especially the external lipid layer of the virus.
* Any mix with 1 part bleach and 5 parts water directly dissolves the protein, breaks it down from the inside.
* Oxygenated water helps long after soap, alcohol and chlorine, because peroxide dissolves the virus protein, but you have to use it pure and it hurts your skin.
* NO BACTERICIDE OR ANTIBIOTIC SERVES. The virus is not a living organism like bacteria; antibodies cannot kill what is not alive.
* NEVER shake used or unused clothing, sheets or cloth. While it is glued to a porous surface, it is very inert and disintegrates only -between 3 hours (fabric and porous), -4 hours (copper and wood) -24 hours (cardboard), - 42 hours (metal) and -72 hours (plastic). But if you shake it or use a feather duster, the virus molecules float in the air for up to 3 hours, and can lodge in your nose.
* The virus molecules remain very stable in external cold, or artificial as air conditioners in houses and cars. They also need moisture to stay stable, and especially darkness. Therefore, dehumidified, dry, warm and bright environments will degrade it faster.
* UV LIGHT on any object that may contain it breaks down the virus protein. For example, to disinfect and reuse a mask is perfect. Be careful, it also breaks down collagen (which is protein) in the skin.
* The virus CANNOT go through healthy skin.
* Vinegar is NOT useful because it does not break down the protective layerof fat.
* NO SPIRITS, NOR VODKA, serve. The strongest vodka is 40% alcohol, and you need 65%.
* LISTERINE IF IT SERVES! It is 65% alcohol.
* The more confined the space, the more concentration of the virus there can be. The more open or naturally ventilated, the less.
* You have to wash your hands before and after touching mucosa, food, locks, knobs, switches, remote control, cell phone, watches, computers, desks, TV, etc. And when using the bathroom.
* You have to Moisturize dry hands from so much washing them, because the molecules can hide in the micro cracks. The thicker the moisturizer, the better.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++* Also keep your NAILS SHORT so that the virus does not hide there.
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