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This from a dear friend and fellow memo reader: "Dick Great comments and articles. Keep them coming. You are so right on China and the future. They have us pegged to a tee. Except for Trump, we have lost our backbone and are afraid to use our economic power to blunt their advances. The Belt and Road program is just a way to put a stranglehold on those countries weak enough to fall for it. J....
PS. I forward so many of your articles to my brother F..... Can you add him to you distribution. He is copied on this email and has his email address there. Thanks much
And:
From a dear friend who I did not know drank, til I saw him sober:
"Qui bibit dormit; qui dormit, non peccat; qui non peccat, sanctus est.
Ergo qui bibit sanctus est"
(One who drinks sleeps; one who sleeps doesn't sin; one who doesn't sin is a
saint. Therefore, one who drinks is a saint.)
Latin Proverb
Meanwhile:
My son has a cadre of friends who have impressive careers. One is a CDC scientist who remarked he has never seen so much flying out of the labs and so many policies altered so work and tests could move quickly.
Having lived in Atlanta and having two clients who were very senior staff scientists, at the time, I know about the CDC which abuts Emory's Campus and the chimps etc. who are housed there.
It got me to thinking, the CDC chimp population could be heaving a sigh of relief they no longer will be subject to so many experiments and tests. In fact, the movie (Planet of The Apes) with Charlton Heston may prove prophetic and the monkeys will survive and takeover the world. Certainly they can't do much worse than man or the Chinese. and radical Islamists
Finally:
My son also believes this coming Wednesday, March 26, could be a critical juncture point because this is when we should receive information about whether the virus curve has begun to flattem.
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Have Democrats totally tucked their tails and run?
How not to ensure that Democrats remain pro-Israel
Why did the leading pro-Israel Democratic group fail to come to the aid of a strong supporter of the Jewish state who was defeated by a BDS supporter?
By Johnathan S. Tobin
When compared to the collapse of Bernie Sanders’s presidential campaign, the results of a congressional primary election in Illinois remain insignificant. But as much as the defeat of Rep. Dan Lipinski by Marie Newman, a left-wing challenger, pales in comparison to the setback dealt to the importance of former Vice President Joe Biden’s decisive defeats of the Vermont Socialist, what happened in Illinois sets an ominous precedent.
It’s not just that Lipinski’s loss eliminates a sterling example of a political species that is rapidly become extinct: a conservative pro-Israel Democrat. It’s that a group of stalwart pro-Israel activists and donors failed to come to his aid when a primary challenger who is a pro-BDS Israel-basher backed by the left-wing J Street lobby took him down.
While the Democratic Majority for Israel claims extenuating circumstances in this case, by abandoning Lipinski and effectively losing a House seat to opponents of the Jewish state, the group did more than undermine its purpose. It illustrated that despite Sanders’s defeat, those who wish to preserve the Democratic Party as a bastion of support for Israel are still losing ground to leftist foes of the alliance between the two democracies.
DFMI was formed last year to combat the drift of the Democratic Party away from its past record of support for Israel.
President Barack Obama sparring with Israel and his decision to make his dangerous nuclear deal with Iran a partisan litmus test was a turning point for the efforts of some Democrats to distance their party from the Jewish state.
But as troubling as his policies towards Israel were, a President Sanders would have made Obama look like a supporter of the Likud Party. Sanders’s support for lifting the blockade of terrorist-run Gaza, backing foreign aid cuts to Israel and demonizing Israel’s efforts to defend itself against Palestinian terrorism would have blown up the alliance between the two democracies had he made it to the White House.
The DFMI, which is headed by veteran Democratic operative Mark Mellman, stuck its neck out by sponsoring a series of television ads running in Iowa aimed at undermining support for Sanders. And though Sanders won the most votes in the first-in-the-nation Democratic caucus in Iowa, Mellman boasted that his negative advertising prevented the Socialist from winning a decisive victory.
Sanders’s subsequent collapse happened because the rest of the field of non-left-wing Democratic presidential candidates realized that staying in would enable their party to be hijacked by the intolerant “Bernie Bros.” By dropping out and then endorsing him, the move paved the way for Biden, who had seemed dead in the water only days earlier because of his terrible performance on the campaign trail and in debates, to push their main challenger aside.
A Biden presidency would be no picnic for Israel, as he is likely to recycle all of Obama’s failed Middle East policies. Yet compared to Sanders, he looks good to mainstream Democrats who were rightly panicked at the idea of an administration where anti-Semitic BDS-backers like Reps. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) and ousted Women’s March leader Linda Sarsour would have more influence than any supporter of Israel.
But there’s more to saving the Democratic Party for Israel than just the presidential nominee.
Mellman and other pro-Israel Democrats have rightly pointed to the fact that while polls show that members of their party are growing increasingly hostile to the Jewish state, most of the Democratic congressional caucus is resisting that trend.
The fate of Lipinski, however, illustrates that the preservation of that pro-Israel House Democratic majority cannot be taken for granted. Leftist critics of Israel, supported by a leftist group led by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), are mounting primary challenges to centrist Democrats all over the country. While not all have succeeded, the energy in the party rank-and-file seems to rest with those, like Newman, who have no use for pro-Israel groups like AIPAC or the DFMI.
Her positions on Israel should have marked Newman as a target for a group like DFMI. Her policy paper on “Israel/Palestine” is even worse than Sanders’s lamentable record. She not only shares his support for lifting the blockade of Gaza and diverting aid for Israel to the Palestinians, but also explicitly backs forcing Israelis out of their homes not only in the West Bank, but also Jewish neighborhoods in Jerusalem built since 1967. On top of that, she supports the BDS movement and is a fierce opponent of efforts to outlaw it.
Rather than back Lipinski, the DFMI stayed out of the race. Why?
It wasn’t because Lipinski was a hopeless cause. Even without support from DFMI, he still lost by less than 2,800 votes.
The problem is that he while he is a stalwart Democrat on most domestic issues, he is an opponent of abortion and has stands that sometimes seem more in tune with independent and centrist voters, as well as Republicans, than with left-wingers like AOC.
In a world in which both major parties have become narrowly ideological, that marked him as an outlier. However, the only way to push back against a trend that leaves the GOP as the pro-Israel party and the Democrats against it is to ensure that there is still room in the Democratic tent for people like Lipinski. By abandoning him to his fate, DFMI appeased many liberal Democrats who think that abortion is more important than Israel’s security. But in doing so, it failed its mission.
The defeat of Bernie Sanders prevents the Democrats from being “Corbynized” at the national level. But the way Britain’s Labour Party was hijacked by left-wing Israel-haters like Jeremy Corbyn was by his faction pushing centrists out of Parliament and replacing them with people like Newman. That makes Newman’s victory an ominous sign for the future of the Democrats.
If the DFMI is going to stem the tide of anti-Israel sentiment among Democrats, it’s going to have to stop standing by and watching seats once held by friends of AIPAC turn into strongholds for foes of the Jewish state.
Jonathan S. Tobin is editor in chief of JNS
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In a recent memo I warned about this.
I asked some of my investment gurus, who I respect, their thoughts and these are some "edited" responses:
a)"I think there are two countries here. One is New York and the other is the rest of the US. New York is crazy. T--"
b)"...It is scary to think we are "relying on" idiots like Maxine Waters and Chuck Schumer to make wise decisions in this crisis. Heaven help us!! B--"
c)"Like you, I have very little respect for my ability to time markets. I read today the median stock in the Value Line Geometric Composite is down 50% from its high as compared to -70% in '09 and -57% in 02-03. I think there is a major buying opportunity in our future, but maybe not yet. We have a pandemic combined with a bursting major credit bubble, and a lot of selling is forced with margin calls and bankruptcies/insolvencies., etc. ... I'm holding off for now. I doubt if I will know the bottom when it comes, but I'd hope to be beyond the mayhem.
In a recent memo I warned about this.
Chinese Disinformation Against US Deflects From Wuhan Biolab
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) seems to be ramping up its disinformation campaign against the US in order to deflect from the shady origins of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China. A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman last Thursday made the outrageous accusation that the U.S. Army may have sent the COVID-19 to China, giving it official weight and generating headlines in major media.
Zhao Lijian, spokesperson and deputy director general of the Foreign Ministry information department made the claim on Twitter, which is banned in China. “It might be U.S. army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan,” he wrote. “Be transparent! Make public your data! U.S. owe us an explanation!”
According to Free Pressers, in recent weeks the Chinese government appears to have backed away from the Wuhan market theory as the virus origin and shifted to claiming the virus was introduced into China from abroad. While the origin of the Coronavirus remains a mystery, it first surfaced in early December when the first victims developed viral pneumonia and many, but not all, had a link to a wild animal market in Wuhan.
However, as the animal market theory loses credibility, this CCP disinformation appears intended to deflect attention from the fact that the center of Beijing’s biological weapons program is based in Wuhan, very near the outbreak epicenter.
As was reported by The Washington Times in late January, Wuhan is the location of China’s sole declared Level-4 bio-containment laboratory at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. The lab is engaged in research on deadly coronaviruses and has been linked to China’s covert biological weapons program.
Adding credence to the possibility that the COVID-19 outbreak was at least caused by an accidental release from the Chinese Wuhan biolab, Chinese President-for-Life Xi Jinping on Feb. 14 told an emergency meeting in Beijing that a national system to control bio-security risks was needed “to protect the people’s health.” Xi called lab security a “national security issue.”
Free Pressers noted that soon after Xi’s Feb. 14 comments, the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology released a new directive titled: “Instructions on strengthening bio-security management in microbiology labs that handle advanced viruses like the novel Coronavirus.”
Meanwhile, Steven W. Mosher noted in a Feb. 22 report for the New York Post that “It sure sounds like China has a problem keeping dangerous pathogens in test tubes where they belong, doesn’t it? And just how many ‘microbiology labs’ are there in China that handle ‘advanced viruses like the novel coronavirus?’”
In all of China there is only one such facility, located in the city of Wuhan “that just happens to be . . . the epicenter of the epidemic,” Mosher noted.
The U.S. government has provided some pushback to this Chinese propaganda. White House National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien last Wednesday, called out the Chinese for mishandling the virus outbreak. “This outbreak in Wuhan was covered up,” O’Brien said, noting that the cover-up delayed a global response by two months.
We can expect more disinformation coming out of China in the next weeks and months about the origins of COVID-19, but attention should increasingly be focused on Wuhan, China, especially on the Chinese government Level-4 bio-containment lab at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
Paul Crespo is a defense and national security expert. He served as a Marine Corps officer and as a military attaché with the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) at US embassies worldwide. He holds degrees from Georgetown, London, and Cambridge Universities. Paul is also CEO of SPECTRE Global Risk, a security advisory firm, and a Contributor to American Defense News
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++I sent this comment to some of my investment gurus:
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++I sent this comment to some of my investment gurus:
I asked some of my investment gurus, who I respect, their thoughts and these are some "edited" responses:
a)"I think there are two countries here. One is New York and the other is the rest of the US. New York is crazy. T--"
b)"...It is scary to think we are "relying on" idiots like Maxine Waters and Chuck Schumer to make wise decisions in this crisis. Heaven help us!! B--"
c)"Like you, I have very little respect for my ability to time markets. I read today the median stock in the Value Line Geometric Composite is down 50% from its high as compared to -70% in '09 and -57% in 02-03. I think there is a major buying opportunity in our future, but maybe not yet. We have a pandemic combined with a bursting major credit bubble, and a lot of selling is forced with margin calls and bankruptcies/insolvencies., etc. ... I'm holding off for now. I doubt if I will know the bottom when it comes, but I'd hope to be beyond the mayhem.
Stay healthy and keep your head down - us old guys need to be extra careful! N---"
d)"This --- Corona virus correction, is horrible. Not only will it force the market to reevaluate all prices lower (take all the optimism out of the market as any good correction does and should) but also correctly force new prices based on recessionary earnings.
... If the governing powers were to call out the guard to quarantine all the nursing homes and aged at-risk American and deliver free meals on wheels, then the rest of the populace and the economy could continue with their lives as normal. In that case, 99.5% of the population would catch and get over the flu, while the 0.5% of the population could be guarded, cared for, and be given proper medical attention if and when breeches of the quarantine occurred. Yes, quarantine of the at-risk population would be expensive and yes, a lot of the rest of the population would suffer numerous sick days, but the total populace and the total economy would march on quite effectively. But this has not been our approach. Instead we've quarantined (sheltered in place) 99.5% of the population to slow contagion of the 0.5%. So my belief is that we have handled the pandemic the wrong way to the detriment of total utils (to use an economic term). So the fact is we have halted the nation's economy so what is that cost to the discounted present value of the newly created cash flows? How will they be replaced? How much of the government's bailout will be at the taxpayer's expense vs loans that will be repaid? (And when has the government ever collected payments it promised would repay its welfare programs?!?!!) So . . .
The hit to the economy and to the national debt will be enormous. It seems a 30% correction would be a fair, objective discount, but I worry that the market is never objective and that fear may drive the market to over shoot. Nevertheless, I believe that in a year's time the illness and the bulk of the deaths will be behind us, the the panic will be over, the bulk of the economy will be back up and running, the surviving populace will have gained greater immunity and/or the healthcare industry may have solutions (like a vaccination), that the U.S. will once again have proven itself to be the bulwark of strength, stability, and resilience compared to all the other nations in the world, and that today's market prices will seem most reasonable.
That said, one of my early mentors always cautioned against trying to catch a falling knife so like always this market is the hardest to figure, and I don't know if the knife has hit the floor yet or not. I wouldn't be worried about the daily loss on any stock you bought today. Maybe one would be better waiting a little longer before buying, but, hey, by then it's possible the market will have figured it out and no longer offer today's values! As always, waiting to see what happens provides more clarity and less risk, but clarity and low risk is what makes markets rise! S------"
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In my humble opinion, it is way too early to assess the impact of the virus on Trump's re-election but I believe, other than the partisans and haters, most rational Americans know the virus was an undetected meteor and do not blame Trump for it hitting our shores. They will, however, at some point, come to a decision about how he handled this crisis so how long it takes to end and what is left of our nation will largely become determining factors.
Meanwhile, Democrats have chosen a candidate they find frightening but a better alternative than a disaster named Bernie. Biden does not instill confidence except in the most ardent partisan who chooses to remain blind. After decades of inhabiting the swamp there is no meaningful legislation attached to his name, his voting record is both undistinguished and mostly on the wrong side of history, his age and flashes of senility and dementia are not encouraging and his ethical behaviour is less than inspiring.
For those who remain after the virus has subsided stay tuned because the next 8 months are going to be one hell of a ride.
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