Simplistically/succinctly stated/speaking the upcoming election is shaping up to be between "Made America great/respected again " and "Make America/pathetic/the laughing stock again."
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Another Rant:
The activity in the stock market is totally irrational and driven mainly by the algo programs over reacting to the thing of the instant-fear of the virus. There is no fundamental reason for what has been happening, and it is not helpful to the overall capital markets functioning. So the economy will slow a little in Q1 and maybe more in Q2, but that is a passing thing in my view. Jobs in Jan and Feb were far above forecast and strong. Employers are holding off any layoffs due to the shortage of any labor, so they prefer to keep workers on payroll until the virus scare is over in 2-3 months and the economy is back on course. People in the job recruiting business say there is no sign of layoffs or hiring slowdown. Cap ex is still on track as projects are long term and not impacted by this short term problem. It appears most managers, think this too will pass soon, and they need to keep going. The PMI for service was strong, and well above forecast. Bond issuance in Jan, Feb was strong. Credit spreads on junk bonds are not widening much. The economy was on a tear in Jan Feb and will surprise on the upside when GDP is announced. With the ten year at .7%, and big fiscal deficits, there is enormous stimulus already, and the last thing we need is another Congressional spending program like the wasted Obama stimulus which did nothing. The market volatility is computer programs that react in micro seconds to any price anomaly in stocks, and have no basis in any fundamental facts. The computer is programmed to react to any news item, true or not, and thought about not at all. The algorithms are running the stock market. It is reported that 70%-75% of trades are computer driven. I don't know if that is accurate, but it is clearly the vast majority and is what drives a lot of the movement. Despite this, over the long term (more than two years by my definition) , fundamentals and the overall economic strength or weakness do win out. Over the long run the equity markets do go up and recover from whatever the momentary panic or trauma may be. So if you are a long term investor, as I assume most of you are, just buy solid well run companies with strong balance sheets and good brands, and relax. Over time you will do well. There will always be some big swings, and there will be moments like 2007 to get out for a while, but being in equities over any long term period has proven to be the winning move. If you are a trader who thinks you can beat the market, good luck. There are a few very good traders who really know what they are doing, and who have a real feel for the market, who make a lot of money professionally trading, but for the regular investor it is a fool's errand, and even for professional traders in general, it does not pay off. Most hedge funds have underperformed the markets over the past ten years. I remain all in equities. The economy is solid, and the jobs report and other economic reports prove that. Unless there is some huge new outbreak in the next two weeks, this will pass and then will be forgotten as the Dem convention and then the election take front page. If you raced to be in bonds you are going to get hurt by summer. I repeat, come May you will be sorry you did not buy now. I could be wrong, but if you look at most past crisis times, the market bounces back, and this time the underlying economy is very strong and stimulus is big with lots of liquidity available, which is key. Credit spreads are not widening much.
It seems clear now that a part of the election panic was Bernie becoming the nominee, and now that the DNC has rallied behind Joe, that panic has subsided for the moment. Here is my take. Most Americans do not want a revolution, and do not want socialism. Bernie never represented more than 25%-30% of the Dem voters who go to primaries. Warren was a few more. Dem primaries tend to bring out the activists and the younger people. Polls have shown no more than 25% or so of all voters would possibly consider socialism, and that is before the Republicans attack Bernie and Joe for their left wing policies. That was a poll, and we all know most polls are not accurate, and it depends on who you ask and what is the question. My guess is 90% of those people could not even define socialism. They probably think it means I get something for free so that must be good. Bernie was never a threat to beat Trump. Mike is out now so it is Joe and Bernie. Two old incapable white men. Joe has taken several positions that are aligned with Bernie, like his views on letting illegals have drivers licenses, and various entitlements like free healthcare. He is also for more gun control, and for a version of a public option for insurance which would create serious problems for private coverage. If we see one thing from the virus, it is that the US healthcare system is the best in the world, and has responded very well. As the virus goes away in 2-3 months the private system of the US will be seen as having been very effective. Hunter Biden will be called to testify soon, unless Romney stops it. Ukraine will be a bad story for Joe. They have begun a formal investigation of Hunter and the pressure by Joe to fire the prosecutor. Lastly, Joe either has to adopt Bernie's policies and lose most voters, or he rejects them and loses the Bernie voters. Either way he loses. Pay attention when old Joe speaks. He is clearly on the wrong side of old. He often can't recall where he is or when something happened a few years ago. I have a bit of a problem recalling names sometimes, but I know where I am and what is going on. Joe is genuinely having mental lapses, and his energy is clearly ebbing, and this is who the Dems are propping up to go four years. It is a rerun of Woodrow Wilson who was mentally unfit and incapacitated his last year in office, but that was hidden from the public. The Dems are doing the same with Old Joe. Everyone is noticing it and it will be even more obvious as the campaign goes on and in the debate with Trump. When voters are given a choice of going back to the bad economic policies of Obama with higher taxes and regulation or the strong economy of Trump, they will vote their pocketbook as they always do. Trump beats Joe. Lots of Dems and press were talking up Joe. Did you note who said nothing- Obama. Is Michelle on standby to be VP, or to be the compromise candidate.
I continue to say the whole virus issue is overblown. Almost all the deaths are in Washington, and primarily attached to that one nursing home where they were dying anyway. They just died sooner by maybe a month or two. The ones in NY are almost all attached to one synagogue. Listen carefully to reports. The outbreaks are very confined, and companies and governments are acting fast to contain the problem. Here is a reality check. The press rushes to report one more case in NY or Seattle. There will be around 36,000+ deaths in the US this year from flu. Flu goes away in spring so assume it is only a problem for 7 months or 210 days. That means in flu season on an average day, 171 people are dying of flu. Do you hear about that? That is more than all the cases so far of virus. Today they report that most people infected are getting better and returning to normal work. Due to all the warnings, it is very likely the flu infections and other infections will decline this year as people stay home if sick, get treated sooner, and take other precautions. Spring is almost here and the virus will supposedly die off anyway. In Wuhan the disease is reversed and the temporary hospitals are being shut down now. In China factories are getting back to work this week, and by next week will probably be mostly back in full, or overtime production as workers travel back now from Chinese New Year and the virus scare recedes. A major indicator is the smog has returned to China indicating that factories are mostly back online now. Probably in another week most production will be fully back online. Travel will stay harmed by a lot, but with the internet it is very different than ever in the past as many people can work from home, and can watch movies, you can talk to a doctor, you can get food and everything else delivered almost immediately. Today is totally different than any prior time in that meetings can still be held online with Zoom, Go To Meeting, or the other meetings apps, business can continue almost without missing a beat in many cases, and as soon as Chinese factories are back in full production, supply lines can be refilled. I simply do not see this as a long term crippling of the economy, nor even pushing it to zero growth in Q1 or Q2. Boeing will be back online in Q2, and that alone will make a big difference to factory production and GDP. Stock buybacks are already happening at these prices, and the Fed is making sure there is a lot of liquidity. Banks have agreed to go easy for the moment on borrowers, and so there will not be a financial crunch. Housing is booming now at these rates, and refis are at all time record highs which means a lot of borrowers are resetting their debt service burden to be at very easily manageable levels. All positives.
With more testing there will be more cases announced, but deaths will stay very limited. In fact an expert in health stats said ignore the death rates number as of now as they are not accurate. The number of cases is understated so the ratio of deaths is way overstated. In China the death rate has now been rectified, and is believed to be less than 1% when the full count of infections is counted. Like with a lot of stats you hear from online or TV news, they are inaccurate. If you listen to the real experts, this is not a bad infection for most people, and no kids under 14 have gotten infected. Life will be back to normal by late May or June based on how the infection has seemed to get mitigated in China, and with all the efforts now to contain it. The stock market will recover nicely. The only deaths were in the nursing home and one old lady in CA who had serious health issues anyway.
As I have mentioned before, most of the Bernie crowd are young college educated people who have been taught social justice ideology instead of history and economics. They have been brainwashed to believe socialism is OK because it brings social justice, and since they have no history courses they are unaware of the history of socialism, and the arrests, torture and mass murders in the Soviet Union, Nazi Germany, Venezuela, Cuba, etc. We are paying a big price now for the ideology of the universities over the past ten years which is now worse than ever. This generation is simply uneducated and misinformed, and it is dangerous as we see from the Bernie wave. They only hire professors who believe and teach the social justice ideology, and as a result with speech codes and the shut own of free speech in classes, the kids never know there is anything else to know. The most ironic thing is they demand diversity, but that is only in ethnicity and gender, but there is no diversity allowed in thought or speech. Thus Bernie nearly got nominated.
On a related topic most large law firms now have a cohort of young elite law school associates who do not believe it is the duty of a lawyer to defend unpopular people or causes. Now major law firms file amicus briefs in high profile cases like immigration, and none now file briefs nor defend anti-immigration positions. This is very dangerous that lawyers no longer feel they are obligated to defend even the most despicable client, like Weinstein. Recall that Harvard fired a top lawyer who was defending Weinstein because the kiddies thought the lawyer was therefore "dangerous" and could not be a residence proctor. And he is black. The entire basis of our rule of law system is that lawyers are supposed to advocate for their client even if they think the client is wrong or might be guilty. Now they just do not represent clients who are considered not in line with the snowflakes definition of acceptable people or causes. Lawyers always had a right to defend any client or reject them as a client, but now it has become very social justice driven progressive political. Major law firms are afraid of the publicity if they defend a controversial client. The entire legal system is in a very terrible place if this mentality permeates top law schools as it already has.
Now we have Schumer making an extreme threat against SCOTUS justices. This is beyond disgraceful and is dangerous as it just encourages the crazies to say, or do even worse. The left wing thinks it is OK to shut down any speech or decision it does not like, and Schumer's threat is in the exact same vain as what happens on campus today. This just corroborates kids on campus doing the anti-free speech things they now do routinely. It encourages the press to go too far. This is the worst, dangerous speech I can recall as SCOTUS has always been held to be above the fray of politics and the one arm of government not to be treated in this way. If they have no respect for the Supreme Court and think they can make threats, then the bedrock of our rule of law is in jeopardy. If Trump had made such an overt threat he would and should be impeached.
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The rest of this memo will be a personal effort to tackle a very difficult subject and I suspect I will not be up to the challenge., ie. rationalizing politics and religion.
As I have often written, I am not ritualistically religious. I know little of my own religion and tend to be agnostic. As for Christianity, I know even less nor do I believe Christ will rise from his grave and revisit. However, I do believe there are Christlike people on earth. One of them is Robert Smith. Robert is a successful and wealthy black entrepreneur who both talks the talk and walks the walk. Recently he gave scholarships to black students so they could finish their education without debt or mostly so and also recently told blacks they need to realign and re-establish a relationship with Jews.
Unlike the Jesse Jackson's of the world or many black politicians, Smith is no charlatan. He truly is a virtuous man of God. Neither is he an Obama fraud. Smith is pure gold underneath his black skin. He has become rich and now is spending his wealth in order to do good, to help his people educate themselves, to become better so they can better serve their fellow person(s.)
Politics comes into play because I also believe we are about to see one of the greatest frauds perpetrated on America since my own birth. I am referring to the remaking of Biden. What we are witnessing is the selling of Biden as a political healer. All the sleazy politicians who ran against him, castigated him as they sought to become the Democrat nominee, are now supporting him. This will be one of the fastest bait and switch efforts ever undertaken.
Not only will they be engaged in re-making Biden into a political saint but they also will do everything in their crafty power to destroy Trump and the mass media will remain in total support.
We all know by now, Trump is a master at stretching the truth. If it is good he will say perfect, if it is 5 he will say 7. He has been engaged in branding so long in the commercial world of real estate, he has conned himself into believing much of what he says. Consequently, he is vulnerable and Trump Haters have manipulated his vulnerabilities by putting the "bad mouth" on him. He truly loves America, he truly cares about the blue collar worker. Then why did he avoid military service his detractors ask.? Yet, they ignore the fact that Obama, Bloomberg, Biden and their ilk did not break down barriers to serve their country in a military sense or even those who did, like Clinton and GW, who found ways to do so in a more "cushy- like" manner.
Bill Gates could have served if he chose to but he decided to give his money away and inveigle other billionaires to do as well.
Trump has not shipped pallets of dollars in the night to Iran as did his predecessor. Trump has not sought to use government agencies like The IRS, The Justice Department or FBI to intimidate his enemies or distribute guns to narcotic war lords/gangs and then lie about it. Trump did not engage the FBI to spy on Hillary's campaign or lie to FISA Courts in order to obtain illegal warrants and he certainly did not receive money to speak at Russian meetings nor sell our uranium to Russian entities.
Yet, he is the one we are told we must hate and distrust because he saw more people at his inauguration than were allegedly there? Why are we willing to buy the lies of those who have put the "bad mouth" on Trump because he was a play boy prior to becoming president and is unorthodox in his manner and speech? Why? because, when he beat Hillary, he became a threat to those in power and was in a unique position to expose their nefarious actions.
In his civilian life, Trump was sought out for his generosity and received awards attesting to same etc? Are those who gave the awards hypocrites?
I am not suggesting Trump is a Robert Smith but I am posing turning the man who helped his son become wealthy and who seemed to have used the leverage of his high office to do so and who became a wealthy politician after 50 years in D.C should not now be sold to us as virtuous and if so, we should not be buying it as we are being told we should.
Is this too much to ask of Americans who are about to vote? Have we not learned anything after 8 years of Obama and the various frauds he and his "wing" persons perpetrated upon us?
Have we become such gullible dullards we can no longer distinguish between being had and true accomplishments. Does one truly believe the man who claimed only the government did it now be credited for everything Trump has accomplished or paved the way so Trump could? Are we to believe the man who told us we could keep our doctors and the "lady ripper" who said we had to pass it to know what was in it? What about the billions wasted on "ready projects" which went to supporters who declared bankruptcy?
I understand Democrats finally became frightened at the prospect of a radical socialist, who was not even a registered Democrat, becoming their nominee and their lust for power being threatened. I understand this struck the fear of God in their putrid souls. I understand the mass media seeking to avoid another embarrassment because of their biased blinders and skewed polling efforts.
If truth be told, though Bernie' political and economic philosophy is anathema to my thinking, I respect him for his commitment to his stupidity. At least he is a consistent "real deal." I also know he achieved his own wealth through politics, has accomplished little by way of true work and then, began very late in life to do anything meaningful but even politicians are allowed to be "late bloomers."
In the final analysis, politics and religion probably do not mix because being honest, virtuous and Christlike will not carry you far in winning political office because voters, themselves, have developed such a deep distrust they no longer recognize the truth and do not associate it with politicians. However, why are they willing to believe different lies and why don't they see through how they are being manipulated as they are now with the re-making of Biden?
Every election is critical. Each creates the foundation upon which future presidency's rest and helps shapes their direction. Obama's eight years created the longing for what Trump offered and Hillary failed to deliver. Trump has reshaped "The Oval Office" so it will never be the same. Every president leaves an indelible mark.
I urge everyone who votes to think about this and to realize their own vote will shape America's destiny, if not the actual survival, of our Republic. Lamentably, there are those who hope the Concoravirus will cause Trump's economic achievements to end and thus lead to his defeat. Be careful what you wish. I doubt you would want Biden to accomplish what a Bernie president would nor should you vote for Biden because he is a virtuous healer.
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