Nasrallah Infected? Erdogan and Putin. The West and China. Sound Health News

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A fear friend and fellow memo reader responds to my morning memo: "Very astute this morning. You have pegged it “loud and clear”. F-----"
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Report: Nasrallah Infected With Coronavirus

By Dov Benovadia

Lebanese reports Wednesday said that Hezbollah terrorist Hassan Nasrallah was infected with coronavirus, leading to a deterioration of his health. Nasrallah recently met with officials from Iran, where thousands are said to have been infected, including senior government and military leaders. The reports said that other senior members of the terror group were infected as well.

According to the reports, Nasrallah had in recent days met for several hours with Iranian politician Ali Larijani, who has been since diagnosed as having been infected. Nasrallah is known to have had numerous medical problems, and according to medical experts quoted in the report, his health has “suffered considerably.”

Officially, there are 41 individuals who have been diagnosed with coronavirus in Lebanon, but Israeli officials believe that the number is likely far higher, because of poor record keeping and a disorganized medical system.

And:

Erdogan got in bed with Putin and now should behaving second thoughts.

A Tense Calm

The humanitarian crisis in Syria has worsened in recent weeks in the wake of a push by the Syrian regime and Russian forces against Turkish-backed rebel positions in Idlib province in the country’s northwest. An estimated 2.8 million people in the region are in desperate need of aid, says the UN.

Even so, fighting in Idlib has not turned into a broader war between Turkey and Russia – yet.

Still, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Wednesday Turkey would not hesitate to take stronger military action if the parties to a ceasefire don’t abide by its terms, Reuters reported.

The situation between the two powers escalated in late February when an airstrike killed more than 30 Turkish soldiers. As the New York Times reported, Turkish officials said Syrian planes launched the strike, but the Russians had been conducting most bombing runs in the region. Shortly after, Turkey downed two Syrian jets, the Associated Press wrote.

Turkey supports Syria’s rebels but also has moved troops into Idlib in order to exert more control over the tide of refugees massing on Turkey’s southern border, including letting them pass through to Europe. Russia and Iran back Syrian President Bashar Assad in his country’s nine-year-long civil war, which has claimed 400,000 lives.

An analysis in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz noted how the Syrian war was shifting from a civil conflict to a proxy battle among major powers. The seriousness of a full-blown Turkish-Russian war can’t be overstated. Turkey is a NATO member. In theory, an attack on it would demand a response from the US and European powers.

Many want the West to support Turkey. Writing in the Financial Times, George Soros called on Europe to stand with Turkey, calling Assad “the most barbarous ruler that the world has seen since Joseph Stalin.” In the Washington Post, columnist Asli Aydintasbas issued a similar call.

Then, late last week, the belligerents reached a cease-fire after six hours of talks in Moscow, reported the BBC. “We are witnessing a very tense calm,” Syrian opposition leader Ibrahim al-Idlibi told Al Jazeera shortly after the cease-fire took hold on March 6.

Tense is the right word. Erdogan has refused to remove Turkish-manned observation posts in Syrian government-controlled territory. Russia has accused Syrian rebels of using those posts, Reuters reported. Al Qaeda-linked militants are also in Idlib. They have rejected a political solution to the crisis. Russia has also claimed that Turkey has done too little to quash one of those militant groups, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Turkey didn’t secure a no-fly zone, meaning planes can reconnoiter for future strikes. The region is still a powder keg.

The Turks and Russians have reached cease-fire deals before. This one is also likely temporary, argued Al Monitor.

That’s better than the alternative.

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Three revealing op eds:

Joe Biden’s Bizarre Outburst Is Everything That Is Wrong With The Democrat Party by Kurt Schlichter

Joe Biden Is an Angry Old Man Who Doesn't Like You by Larry O'Connor Globalist Angela Merkel May Be the European Superspreader of Coronavirus By Gavin Wax ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Those who need to hate Trump for political reasons always tell us he is a friend of Putin.  They are unwilling to accept the fact that Trump has consistently checked Putin when it comes to energy sales and production.  Now Putin is in a fight with the Saudis because their interests diverge due to the Coronavirus.  Putin knows Trump is not his friend while Trump knows it is important to have a relationship with your enemies. Where this energy fight ends is anyone's guess because as long as energy demand is tied to economic activity and the latter is impacted by the virus  the pain will hurt Russia, the Saudi's as well as America.  Because we have a strong economy and energy production comprises less of our GDP we remain in the driver's seat but there will be pain even for us. Let Putin and MBS Both Lose The American shale industry will almost certainly outlive either man’s rule. By Holman W. Jenkins, jr Not for the first time, let’s wonder how much Vladimir Putin and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman really know what they’re doing. Oil has crashed to $35 a barrel thanks to a sudden feud between Russia and Saudi Arabia, which comes amid the Covid-19 shock to the global economy. The upshot could bankrupt a lot of U.S. shale companies, if that’s either man’s thinking. But their equipment would survive, the drilling rights would survive. Employees would retain their skills. All would end up in hands of lenders who have every incentive to preserve value and keep applying technology to lower the price at which operations become profitable again. The U.S. has deep pools of entrepreneurial capital. It has highly sophisticated private equity that can scoop up bargains and bring assets back into play in a way that, as has been happening for a decade, tends to cap any cyclical rebound in oil prices that the Saudis and Russians may be hoping for. More important, the U.S. may be the world’s biggest producer but oil is a tiny share of its economy. What America loses in terms of oil-industry wages and profits it gains in lower gas prices for consumers and energy costs for downstream industries. Plus our political system at all levels is geared to assuage unhappiness from dislocated industries. We have a national election coming up in which bums can be thrown out and new bums installed.The strongmen’s desperation is understandable but nothing else about their feud is: Saudi Arabia and Russia have zilch to offer the world except oil and gas. Their political systems are poorly designed to handle the shocks coming their way. Russia needs an estimated price of $50 a barrel to keep its budget afloat given limited borrowing options under sanctions, and that $50 price hardly sustains the millions of Russians not directly on the government’s payroll. Saudi Arabia is said to have the world’s lowest production costs—$3 a barrel—if costs are construed narrowly. But throw in the subsidies habitually required to keep restive princes and social classes in line and the Saudi government needs $90 to sustain the political model it has foisted on itself. MBS’s role at least can be explained: His legitimacy is obviously in question judging from this weekend’s arrests of members of the royal family amid accusations of a coup plot. To be seen surrendering the Saudis’ role as price leader to the Kremlin right now would hardly strengthen his claim to the throne he wants to inherit from his father. Mr. Putin rode an oil boom to power 20 years ago but the degree to which he has mastered the energy politics of even his own country is debatable. He has often seemed at a loss and fearful of taking sides in oligarchic disputes, even when they threatened his carefully prepared come-hither to Western oil companies such as Shell and BP. His crushing of Yukos and its impresario in 2003 took care of a personal threat from a democracy promoter but also began the slow strangulation of ties with the West, which has been costly to him and his cronies. It took only a flick of Donald Trump’s finger recently to scuttle Mr. Putin’s precious Nord Stream 2 pipeline as it neared completion. No part of Mr. Putin’s plan was provoking an oil price collapse on the eve of Tuesday’s carefully scripted parliamentary kabuki. Valentina Tereshkova, an 83-year-old lawmaker and throwback to the glory days of the Soviet Union as the country’s first female cosmonaut, proposed a constitutional change to let Mr. Putin serve in de facto perpetuity. “The president is the guarantor of the constitution,” said Mr. Putin in a speech accepting the idea, his sentence structure apparently confusing subject and object. These changes must pass a Russian court in a system where judges are beholden to Mr. Putin, and a plebiscite that may test even Mr. Putin’s highly accomplished election rigging. His popularity has been eroding in polls of voters who don’t kid themselves that their phone calls aren’t monitored. A heavy ding to oil revenues that account for 30% of gross domestic product will not improve his standing. Remind yourself what it was about the 2014 Ukrainian revolution that so threatened Mr. Putin: a post-Soviet public standing up against a corrupt and impoverishing dictatorship.Enthusiasts for free trade and free flow of people, whom Mr. Trump sometimes derides as globalists, cherished the idea of a planet growing richer and freer together. Some of us still do. But, ironically, it’s the authoritarian states that are most hurt by the retreat. China is dependent on the world to absorb its superfluity of manufactured goods. Russia and Saudi Arabia are economic pygmies that need a fast-growing global economy to buy their oil. A retrenching world would be less prosperous and harmonious but in such a world you would also rather be the United States than anybody else. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ There is much the world can/should learn from the Coronavirus episode and if the West is smart it will begin to withdraw/reduce it's dependence upon China which has every intention of controlling/dominating  the world's economic order. China has been quietly expanding control of essential raw materials, expanding ownership of ports and , most importantly, lending to nations in a manner that imposes onerous debt whose payback is doubtful. Asians think strategically and act tactically.  They are a patient lot. Communism lends itself to long sustained leadership whereas Western societies are more open and subject to constant political change.  As long as strong dictatorships can control the masses there are leadership advantages.  Witness how Putin has been able to maintain control in Russia and how Ji might overcome the Coronavirus debacle. Freedom is preferable to totalitarianism but it, too, comes at a price.  There are no free lunches despite Sander's philosophy and we made a strategic error when we thought China would embrace capitalism and it would change their bellicosity and aggressive ideas/goals.   Now the Western world must undo it's dependency. That will not be easy, will take a long time and a co-ordinated effort. I would like to think America would provide the necessary leadership and Europe and India along with Israel would follow.  Trump , like him or not, understands this and has told the Europeans what they do not want to hear.  Merkel has been an unmitigated disasterb and Britain, in my humble opinion, finally saw the light  and we must help them through their dis-engagement period. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Ross Rants and goes fishing:

One black swan is bad enough, but two at once is a very bad day on Wall St, and a panic reaction. The important thing is to stick to your goal for investing. If you are invested for the long term, for retirement, or whatever is the long term goal, stick to it. Then make your own assessment of where the economy and the market will be in 9 months. Selling now would be a mistake. As I have noted several times, the underlying US economy remains in basically solid shape. There is no risk of a financial crisis, and that is key to how we get through this without a deep recession. The banks have more than adequate capital, which is critical. The Fed is pouring liquidity into the capital markets to make sure there is no shut down of credit facilities as we saw in 2008-9 and other past recessions. The banks publicly agreed to extend credit, modify loans, forbear, extend maturity dates, and to do whatever is needed to help small and mid-sized companies get through the slowdown. The exact opposite of 2008-9. Add on the extra unemployment payments and other things the government is going to do to help workers get through this period, and the slowdown will not be a major recession, and possibly not even a minor one. There will be a substantial slowdown in Q2, and it may be negative growth, but by Q3 things should be starting to get normalized. Unemployment so far is still near record low, and wages continue to rise at 3%. Layoffs are at normal levels because nobody wants to lose staff then may not be able to replace, even unskilled staff. However that is likely to change now as the orders to stay home and away from crowds has begun to have a major impact. A restaurant I was at last night in Longboat had notable fewer guests, and the waitress said it began a week ago.  It was still crowded, but not like it normally is.

Once the virus is stopped in spring, things will slowly get back to normal in Q3. A lot depends on if Congress can act like grown ups and pass good stimulus immediately, and not pack it with all sorts of special gifts like they just did with the $8 billion virus bill. So far they want to increase government spend and not do the things in partnership with the private sector that would make a real difference. Now the Dems put forward a bill to prevent Trump from enforcing travel bans, while the experts say that is critical to have saved lived in the US. The Dems blasted Trump for the China ban saying it was racist and nationalist, the medical experts said it was critical to save American lives. You have wonder what planet the Dems are on. Trump’s plan to subsidize workers laid off due to the virus is critical to help stop the spread by encouraging people to stay home if sick. I fear the Dems will try to load a critical bill with all sorts of pet policies of theirs which have nothing to do  with the virus and nothing will get done. Then they will say Trump and  the Republicans refused to do what was needed to stop the virus. You can write the script.

Treasury rates are essentially zero on an after tax basis. Credit spreads have only widened a little for most, so borrowing costs and good availability of funding continues. This is key to avoid a real recession. Savings for consumers is very high, and home values remain headed up for now. Mortgage rates are historically low, so with a refi consumers are materially improving their ability to service debt, and save the extra cash flow. It will help many get through this period with no real pressure. Refis are up 75% this last week. That is a huge good thing for consumers to improve their cash flow. With energy prices so ultra-low, gas prices and energy prices generally will save a considerable amount for low income workers. This will help subsidize potential lower hours worked during this period. Low rates and low energy prices are likely to continue for an extended period, although oil prices will likely rise quite a bit as the year goes on and either the Saudis or Putin blink. Now with the White House promising various fiscal support measures, there should be no pressure on most consumers unless the Dems just torpedo what Trump is trying to do. . The banks around the world are essentially carrying weak borrowers until things settle down. Online meetings are now common, as are all sorts of other things like classes, interviews, and discussion matters with your doctor, etc.  This will never go back to the old face to face in many cases. In summary, other than equity prices, there are a lot of very good basics in the economy, and there will be government and bank assistance to get struggling industries through this. Q2 is the test, and by then it seems the virus will be subsiding, and a vaccine will be in testing. S Korea and China seem to be in a declining mode for the virus, as is Singapore. There seems to be some preliminary evidence that warm weather does eliminate the problem. The worldwide efforts to contain and control the spread seems to be working in most places. Ignore DeBozo who is now running around claiming there are so many new cases in NYC they cannot cope.  That is nonsense and exactly the wrong message for a political leader to send. It is politics at its worst. Even Newsome said the administration has done a very good job and has done everything he has requested. Clearly Q2 will be poor GDP numbers, and maybe a negative, but then in Q3 the recovery will be underway. It may be a  V shape, or the impact of Q3 may be such that the recovery is a U. . So if you are invested for the long term, sit still or selectively buy some names like APPL, or MSFT, and get in where you missed out before. I do not see a recession, and even my economist friends who have been forecasting one for months, are not fully convinced we will have one. This too will pass and your portfolio will recover. It will just be volatile until possibly July. You need to pay attention to your long term goal and wait for the upturn which is certain to happen before year end. The recovery will be like almost all other.  When the panic subsides, the buyers appear and then the market takes off as the cash hiding on no return bonds comes back into the stock market. After the market tanked in Dec 2018, it then roared ahead by over 30%.

The former president of Shell says most oil companies are well hedged. Even so there will be heavy financial strain on the oil patch. A number of producers and service companies were already under pressure from excess leverage, and poor management, and will need to merge of go through a prepackaged bankruptcy, with a PE firm, or a strong oil company buying them out of BK. I do not expect Exxon to cut its dividend, as that would send a bad signal. Rig counts will be down, so US capex spend will be down. Depending on the Prince, there is no way to  know how long this might continue. Putin will not win this effort to harm the US industry. Russia cannot afford to play this game for long. Their entire economy is dependent on oil revenue. Russia needs $54 oil to break even. Some US frackers say they can do it at $30, and some need over $40. Clearly the US producers can withstand this a lot better than Russia. Putin can withstand a lot of anger from his people, but at some point he needs the cash to run the military and sustain Syria. The White House will provide some help to oil companies, but not a lot because it looks bad in an election year to help oil companies. The banks will likely step in to subsidize them with forbearance and forced mergers. 

So 2,000 down 1,000 up, 1,400 down, just another day on the irrational roller coaster. Whatever the futures register in the pre-market seems to have no connection to where the market closes. Algo programs are set to read positive news, the stimulus plan, and then react. There is no human analysis of -is this realistic to be passed, or what is the impact on the deficit, or other issues that are unclear. The AI program just says-this is good-buy. Then they all buy. Oil price war-bad- we sell.  It is not quite that simplistic, but essentially that is what happens.  There is no way to  predict much of anything right now since there is no way anyone can predict how bad it might get.  Given all the efforts to contain, it is very likely to be much better than it might have been , so best to just ride it out. The ten year has spiked back up from a low of .31% to .77%, and wherever from here. You could lose a lot if you buy Treasuries now. China is coming back online, and supply chains are getting sorted out slowly. Delayed orders at US factories will just be delayed, not cancelled. Consumers will order online instead of in person. Meetings will happen online and conferences and trade shows will just be delayed by a few months. Companies and consumers adapt quickly. There will be issues for sure, but it is not the end of the economy. Life goes on. At the end of WWII when the whole of Europe was in total ruins, people figured it out, and life went on. That is the nature of humans.  This is not disastrous by comparison to 9-11, Katrina, Sandy, the Lehman crash, and lots of other mass crisis happening, and we moved on. If everyone does what they recommend, there will be much less flu and other sickness going forward than there would have otherwise been. Relatively few have died in the US if you eliminate the 19 from  the nursing home. So many people and companies are self- isolating that the potential for major problem is being dramatically reduced.

It seems ironic that net of the nursing home there are still only 10 deaths. If the government for the past ten years had spent the same effort on opioids, and stopping that scourge, it would have saved tens of thousands of young lives. The opioid problem is a national security issue and an economic issue as it leaves tens of thousands unable to work and in poverty. Maybe I just do not get it, but if old and sick people did what they say, and lots of meetings and conferences are moved online, and if workers work from home now where they can, then the spread of the virus will be contained and deaths will be minimal. This is all about self -reliance. The whole press to-do about test kits was slammed down by Fauchi yesterday as a false premise, and right after the news on NBC was that the country is in an uproar over the lack of test kits. The exact thing Fauchi said was false. The press and Dems are doing more damage to panic people than the reality of the virus. 

Biden will be the nominee. It came out today that Joe is limited to 7 minute speeches by his campaign. Even that is too much for him to get through. Everyone knows and says publicly he is not mentally competent to serve, but they vote for him anyway, and the DNC pushes him out there. Bernie’s people will not support him in a big way, his mental deficiency will become more apparent in debates with Trump, and the whole thing will be embarrassing. If Trump would just act properly he could get back votes he has blown with his personality. He just cannot help himself. Joe’s brother has been indicted for fraud.  His son is in contempt in his paternity suit for claiming he can’t appear nor produce his records until November. The judge ruled and denied his motion for extension. She could throw him in jail, but, magically Hunter proposed a big settlement to try to avoid disclosing where his money came from. The judge said she may want the records anyway to assess the settlement.  And you think Joe did not know all of this and is not corrupt. Corrupt and senile-nice. Then we have Durham coming in 2 -3 moths.

Many people worried Bernie would actually have a chance to get elected and that the bartender from the Bronx will be a serious candidate in 10 years. Utter nonsense. Once the primaries got out into real America, and away from the northeast college areas, Bernie got crushed by a mentally incompetent old white guy. There was never a movement to be socialist, and there never will be. That is not who we are, and there remains a vast majority of Americans in the middle and capitalist. Millennials are growing up. They will eventually realize they have successful lives because of capitalism and that the library, or gym, or food bank or many other things in their city are the result of rich guys donating the funding. They will realize their job is dependent on their employer making a lot of money. Polls of Dem voters show they are for reparations, free health care, loose immigration, and many other things the far left and university professors teach. But age and kids, and bills to pay, will help them get to reality. The bartender will get buried after Bernie gets blown away. She has defied the party and worked to unseat Dems. They will retaliate.

For my part, I went fishing today and ignored the market. Great day fishing, caught a 500 pound Jewfish, two  50 pound amberjacks, and a 40 pound Bonita. Beats watching the market. 

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This is from a reliable health source:   

This is their feedback for now on Corona virus: The new Coronavirus may not show sign of infection for many days. How can one know if he/she is infected? By the time they have fever and/or cough and go to the hospital, the lung is usually 50% Fibrosis and it's too late. Taiwan experts provide a simple self-check that we can do every morning. Take a deep breath and hold your breath for more than 10 seconds. If you complete it successfully without coughing, without discomfort, stiffness or tightness, etc., it proves there is no Fibrosis in the lungs, basically indicates no infection. In critical time, please self-check every morning in an environment with clean air. Serious excellent advice by Japanese doctors treating COVID-19 cases: Everyone should ensure your mouth & throat are moist, never dry. Take a few sips of water every 15 minutes at least. Why? Even if the virus gets into your mouth, drinking water or other liquids will wash them down through your throat and into the stomach. Once there, your stomach acid will kill all the virus. If you don't drink enough water more regularly, the virus can enter your windpipe and into the lungs. That's very dangerous. Please send and share this with family and friends. Take care everyone and may the world recover from this Coronavirus soon. IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT - CORONAVIRUS 1. If you have a runny nose and sputum, you have a common cold 2. Coronavirus pneumonia is a dry cough with no runny nose. 3. This new virus is not heat-resistant and will be killed by a temperature of just 26/27 degrees. It hates the Sun. 4. If someone sneezes with it, it takes about 10 feet before it drops to the ground and is no longer airborne. 5. If it drops on a metal surface it will live for at least 12 hours - so if you come into contact with any metal surface - wash your hands as soon as you can with a bacterial soap. 6. On fabric it can survive for 6-12 hours. normal laundry detergent will kill it. 7. Drinking warm water is effective for all viruses. Try not to drink liquids with ice. 8. Wash your hands frequently as the virus can only live on your hands for 5-10 minutes, but - a lot can happen during that time - you can rub your eyes, pick your nose unwittingly and so on. 9. You should also gargle as a prevention. A simple solution of salt in warm water will suffice. 10. Can't emphasis enough - drink plenty of water! THE SYMPTOMS 1. It will first infect the throat, so you'll have a sore throat lasting 3/4 days 2. The virus then blends into a nasal fluid that enters the trachea and then the lungs, causing pneumonia. This takes about 5/6 days further. 3. With the pneumonia comes high fever and difficulty in breathing. 4. The nasal congestion is not like the normal kind. You feel like you're drowning. It's imperative you then seek immediate attention. 

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