Stella attends her first Penguin Hockey Game with Daddy.
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Dick
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Three Israeli elections reconfirm two basic facts
The effort to break the logjam established that there is a broad consensus on national security, and that only judges, and not political rivals, can topple Netanyahu.
It took Israeli politics nearly a year to get back to square one.
That’s the basic fact to understand about the third round of general voting held within a year. While Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is right to claim the vote as a personal victory, it is only by comparison to his near defeat last September that it can be viewed as a great triumph. Israel’s crazy political system may have exhausted and infuriated its citizens, but the three contests held in this period changed very little about the way the country is governed.
As was the case before the first vote, Netanyahu is still the country’s most popular politician, though arguments can be made that no one under indictment should stay in power, even if the charges against him are questionable. And yet, a critical mass of Israeli voters doesn’t agree, let alone buy the claim that Netanyahu is a threat to democracy or the rule of law. Though it shouldn’t have taken three elections to clarify that point, when Netanyahu goes, it will be either of his own volition (something that he doesn’t seem to contemplate in the foreseeable future) or because the judicial system takes him down. As long as his fate is in the hands of the voters, he will remain prime minister.
The other main conclusion concerns policy, and it is one that many commentators are ignoring. Though the rest of the world, including some of those running for president of the United States, still advocates for Israel to make dangerous concessions to the Palestinians for peace, the vast majority of Israelis have more or less stopped discussing the issue. Even if many Americans refuse to accept reality, a broad consensus on the lack of a peace partner encompasses not only Netanyahu’s right-wing/religious bloc, but also the Blue and White Party, which campaigned on stands virtually identical to those of the prime minister.
These are two basic facts about the country that its foreign friends, and especially its critics, should take to heart.
The process did give birth to a new party—the Blue and White—whose sole goal was to unseat the prime minister.
At times, it seemed as if its members would succeed, despite the fact that the prime minister’s success on both the economic and diplomatic fronts rendered the arguments against him to be more about change for change’s sake than anything else. More importantly, at the start of the process, Netanyahu was being threatened with indictments on corruption charges; by the third round of elections 11 months later, he was already indicted. The first procedural elements of his trial take place beginning on March 17.
Netanyahu’s opponents underestimated him. They also misjudged the skepticism with which about half the electorate viewed the legal process used to accomplish the desires of the opposition. The effort to topple a sitting prime minister on sketchy charges that, while pointing to behavior that might be characterized as inappropriate, still falls well below the standard that ought to be required in order to unseat an elected leader never seemed credible to anyone that didn’t already despise Netanyahu.
All that the three election campaigns have accomplished is to reconfirm that Netanyahu is the country’s master politician, and Likud is still its largest party. In the meantime, we’ve also discovered that Gantz was out of his league by comparison.
While he was a fresh face last April, since then he has been exposed as something of a dud, without a competing vision or much to say at all. Blue and White may have become the new home for those who used to vote for the once-dominant Labor Party; however, Gantz’s eagerness to be portrayed as being as tough as Netanyahu on security and as eager to annex the Jordan Valley made him seem superfluous.
Netanyahu helped forge this security consensus with the assistance of Palestinian leaders who have consistently rejected peace offers. And it’s reflected in the Middle East plan recently released by the Trump administration—a plan rooted in realism about the Palestinians’ lack of desire for true peace and the unrealistic nature of efforts to force Israel to return to the 1967 lines and establish a Palestinian state that won’t recognize the legitimacy of a Jewish one, no matter where its borders are drawn.
This realism about security issues is also why the talk about Gantz and Yisrael Beiteinu leader Avigdor Lieberman joining with the remnants of Labor to form a government with the participation, either active or tacit, of the Joint Arab List was a nonstarter.
In a refutation of the “apartheid state” libel, Arab voters have the same rights as Jews and turned out to make the Joint List the third largest party in Israel. But no matter how much Gantz and Lieberman might have wanted to replace Netanyahu, they were never going to be able to justify working with parties whose ultimate goal is to eliminate the Jewish state.
Though Netanyahu and his supporters should be pleased with the election results, this isn’t a resounding mandate. His bloc will likely fall short of a majority, and he’ll need to make a deal with Gantz or defectors from the opposition to form a government to avoid a fourth election. The prime minister likely won’t have complete freedom to implement the annexation of Israeli settlements, let alone legislate immunity from the charges that hang over his head.
And though he will remain in office, Netanyahu will be finished if the judges in his trial on corruption charges find him guilty.
In the meantime, his critics need to stop talking about Netanyahu being a threat to democracy. Three elections have confirmed that Israeli voters support the prime minister and his policies, and that the only alternatives can’t beat him at the ballot box. The date for the end of the Netanyahu era will only be set by the prime minister himself or the judges at his trial, and not by his political opponents.
And:
With 99% of votes counted, right-wing bloc at 58 seats, 3 shy of majority
As double envelopes are tallied and updated, Likud climbs to 36 and Blue and White to 33, at expense of Joint List and Shas; results could fluctuate further
As votes cast in so-called double envelopes in the Knesset elections were being tallied, the Central Election Committee updated the count Wednesday morning, giving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party and the centrist rival Blue and White led by Benny Gantz an extra seat apiece, leaving the premier’s bloc of right-wing supporters at 58 seats.
After 99% of the votes were tallied, Likud gained a seat for a total of 36, with the rival Blue and White party also increasing its power from 32 to 33.
The Joint List of predominantly Arab parties dropped from 16 seats to 15, while the ultra-Orthodox Shas party dropped from 10 seats to 9.
The rest of the parties’ seat totals remained the same: seven for United Torah Judaism (UTJ), seven for Yisrael Beytenu, seven for Labor-Gesher-Meretz and six for Yamina.
Based on those seat totals, Likud and its allies would have 58 seats combined. The right-wing religious bloc supporting Netanyahu — consisting of Likud, Shas, UTJ and Yamina — though, falls short of the 61 seats needed to form a government.
The counting of the “double envelope” ballots of soldiers, police staff, diplomats, handicapped citizens, hospital patients and staff, and prisoners began overnight and was expected to conclude later in the day.
Final but unofficial results were likely to be published Wednesday night. The official results will only be published on March 10.
The Central Elections Committee announced late Tuesday that almost all of the votes cast in the elections had been tallied, with votes from 10,552 polling places across the country counted — 99% of the voting stations that were open during Monday’s elections, accounting for about 93% of the total vote.
Late Tuesday, hazmat-clad officials also unsealed and counted ballots cast by Israelis who could be carrying the coronavirus.
Some 4,076 Israelis under quarantine cast votes Monday in specially constructed isolation voting booths manned by medics in protective gear doubling as election officials.
Before the tally began, the Blue and White party claimed Netanyahu had ordered observers from his Likud party at the committee to interfere in the count. Gantz ordered his own party’s representatives to the committee to intensify their observation efforts as a result, according to the party.
“MK Avi Nissenkorn, the faction chairman, has now been called to oversee from up close the work of the Central Elections Committee to ensure the counting is carried out properly and without intentional disruptions,” Blue and White said in a statement.
Blue and White did not provide any evidence to back up its claim against Netanyahu.
Monday’s election was largely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu, who will go on trial later this month for bribery, fraud and breach of trust but is thought to be seeking support for a legislative mechanism to grant him immunity.
Despite a jubilant victory party and proclamations of victory from supporters, exit polling and the non-final result numbers showed he would likely come up shy of a needed 61-seat majority.
Gantz admitted to supporters early Tuesday that the party’s showing was disappointing, but refused to concede. He later appeared to rule out joining a unity government led by Netanyahu, narrowing the premier’s options to form a coalition.
Netanyahu could attempt to bring in the secularist Yisrael Beytenu, which looks set to once again play kingmaker. He’ll be helped by the prospect of continued deadlock and a fourth election, seen as a doomsday scenario, but one that is increasingly realistic.
Party head Avigdor Liberman vowed Monday he would not join a Likud-led government that includes ultra-Orthodox parties, but he has also refused to join a coalition with the Arab-led Joint List.
“We won’t move a millimeter from what we promised our voters,” he said.
Likud lawmakers and Netanyahu’s spokesman said Tuesday they would be looking to bring in “deserters” from other parties to make up the shortfall.
Likud spokesman Yonatan Urich told Channel 13 of contacts with “four to six” MKs from “the other side” and predicted that Netanyahu would be able to form a majority coalition with the support of some of them “within a few days.”
MK Miki Zohar admitted that if Likud was left needing to bring more than two lawmakers from other parties, it would be far more difficult for Netanyahu to form a coalition; however, he said he remained confident of forming a government even in that scenario and preventing a fourth round of elections.
Blue and White MKs Zvi Hauser and Yoaz Hendel, both former aides to Netanyahu and members of the Telem faction within the party, have denied reports they were mulling joining Likud.
However Hendel told Channel 12 news that he thought the country needed a unity government to move forward. When asked if that included joining a prime minister on trial, he said no.
Blue and White MK Omer Yankelevich also denied she could jump ship after a report said Likud threatened to publish embarrassing recordings of her if she doesn’t defect.
MK Orly Levy-Abekasis, who heads the Gesher faction in the Labor-Gesher-Meretz alliance, has also been tipped as a possibility to switch sides in return for a cabinet portfolio.
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Erickson is correct for applauding Democrat's return to sanity but the Party still leaves America with a threadbare candidate unsuited for the presidency.I suspect party elders/insiders expect defeat and want to suffer the least damage in the hope of possibly holding onto The House.
I urge any sane person to realize with Biden comes Pelosi and I prefer the proverbial egg roll.
As for Bloomberg, he too made the right decision. Save your money and help buy a Cabinet position with what is left and at the same time possibly help Biden. Warren should do the same and let the two old f---- fight it out.
Seriously, Applaud the Democrats
By Erick Erickson
I know. I know. Bernie Sanders really would be an easier candidate for President Trump to campaign against in November. Sanders is so far left with a history of burning bridges that President Trump and the GOP could easily and deservedly vilify him.
But, across the country, it looks like Democrats are mostly rejecting Sanders. In states Sanders is winning, Biden is close. In states like Virginia where Sanders had been ahead in polling recently, Biden decisively crushed him. Sanders will still get some significant wins tonight, including California. But tonight is already showing that thanks to proportional delegate awards, Joe Biden is now on pace to pass Sanders by the end of the month. That will ensure his nomination at the Democratic National Convention.
That is a good thing for the country. Super Tuesday was formalized by southern Democrats in 1980 to stop the advance of Ted Kennedy against Jimmy Carter and Democrats have used it ever since to blunt the momentum of the far left in their party. They are doing it again this year.
While the Democratic Party continues to drift left towards an eventual crack up of secular rich white voters against black and Hispanic voters, enough of their voters overall rejected a radical candidate. That is a good thing for the country. It is a recognition that the far-left socialist policies of Sanders and Warren are being rejected by minority voters within the Democratic Party. It is a recognition of the fact that a full government takeover of health care and other parts of the private sector are nonstarters. It is a recognition that Medicare for All will go nowhere. It is a recognition that the Bernie Bros are marginalized.
The nation needs two mostly-sane political parties. While the Democrats will never acknowledge the GOP is sane under Trump, those of us who know better know it is and should be thankful the Democrats appear to be rejecting their insane fringe.
That makes November a more difficult fight for the President. But at least it ensures, even if by accident, the country is spared a radical communist as a major party leader.
As a bonus, this will undoubtedly exacerbate the divisions within the Democratic Party between the radical left and the establishment Democrats.
Lastly, if you cannot bring yourselves to applaud Democrats for rejecting a radical communist as their presidential nominee, at least applaud them for finally rejecting the unending and painful smugness of Elizabeth Warren’s campaign.
And:
Bloomberg Suspending His Campaign
Bloomberg is not officially dropping out and none of the others are either. The reason is that as long as they just suspend, their delegates continue to be bound to them and cannot become free agents able to be wooed by Sanders.
This puts Joe Biden on the trajectory to get a majority of delegates and ensure his nomination as the Democratic Party nominee.
Also, turns out that money in politics is not as big a deal as Elizabeth Warren claimed.
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My thought regarding The Fed's action: The American economy , as is the world's, is suffering from a virus and no known cure exists other than common sense. Therefore, The Fed's move to reduce rates is not going to solve the cause. Consequently, there will be little economic activity resulting from this move. The liquidity created will eventually find it's way into the stock market and that that is not healthy either.
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My thought regarding The Fed's action: The American economy , as is the world's, is suffering from a virus and no known cure exists other than common sense. Therefore, The Fed's move to reduce rates is not going to solve the cause. Consequently, there will be little economic activity resulting from this move. The liquidity created will eventually find it's way into the stock market and that that is not healthy either.
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