++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
We left Wednesday a week ago to attend the marriage of our granddaughter, Emma, to Scott, our new son-in-law. The wedding took place in a lovely Michigan venue but the weather was anything but beautiful, cold, rainy, even snowed and hailed briefly but when they came out of a tent to begin the brief ceremony the sun actually broke through. A good omen.
We also met Leah, our great granddaughter who is now 8 months, for the first time. Thanks Covid. She is very observant and truly cute as a button. Her sister, Olivia, is now 3 and a bright, inquisitive doll.
While away the market was very volatile as happens when I leave and I did my best to stay abreast of campaign results. I send out some of my thoughts but the results were changing rapidly and I found myself behind the curve.
Those who read my memos know, I am cynical a pessimist but I am going to give a positive interpretation of how I see the results, what I hope can occur and my market thoughts.
In a previous email, I noted someone said Trump's presidency could be defined as rhetoric versus results and I believe he summed up four years in a few insightful words. Pro Trumper's liked his emphasis on placing America first, what he accomplished in the Middle East, his tough attacks on radical Islamists, his bringing business/manufacturing back to America, his trade policies, the economic success his policies achieved, his emphasis on energy development and elimination of choking rules and regulations. They were favorably disposed towards his effort to secure our borders, his belief in law and order, the fact that he kept, or tried to, his campaign commitments and his many judicial appointments. If I missed a few accomplishments I believe I captured the major ones.
Where he was vulnerable, and what may well cost him re-election, was his rhetoric, his unnecessary beratement of those who rubbed him the wrong way and his overreach to be nasty. He became president but never became presidential in ways that made enough voters comfortable.
I ignored his rhetoric. However, I never failed to comment about it but chose to focus on his results and I give him high marks, particularly in view of the fact he did so against the most oppressive odds ever assembled against a president, all the while remaining personally positive and upbeat. The Trump hating Democrats, radicals and assorted progressives never stopped. They impeached him, using fraudulent means, they spied on him, they accused him unmercifully employing falsehoods and the mass media did everything in their power to torment him and paint him in the most negative way. Pollsters did everything to suppress those who were likely to vote for him and failed in their predictions for the second time. If a group of professionals ever had egg on their collective faces they proved to be omelets.
His opponent attacked him for failing to do a better pandemic job but offered nothing by way of what he will do that is different and will prove more successful. Meanwhile, the mass media never asked probing questions of Biden yet never missed a beat in attacking Trump.
Having said that, where is the positive thesis?
Assuming the level of fraud was minimal and except for, what I believe was an illegal act by The Pa. Supreme Court, Biden will probably become president and Trump has only himself to blame for losing what , prior to the pandemic, should have been a walk away contest. Trump actually did most everything right, vis a vis the pandemic, and Biden will benefit and no doubt take credit. Until we have a vaccine, people will continue to test positive and some will die but we have learned a great deal and have reduced mortalities by a considerable amount in view of the fact Americans are aging and have , because of their life style, a high degree of contributing/underlying causal factors.
If Republicans hold the Senate , as I believe they will, narrowed the number of representatives in The House, as they have, this will help Biden because it will protect him from the radicals in his party. If Biden proves pliable, as he prides himself in being, he might be able to pass immigration legislation, finally get a more rational health care bill through Congress and set us on a path towards something meaningful about our massive deficit spending. These alone would make him a worthy president. What he must also do is not muck up what Trump has accomplished in The Middle East, energy development, and border security. He might have to swallow hard and fight off the radicals but if he does it will inure to his credit.
I pray Biden will not walk the plank and get in bed with Iran nor buckle regarding Trump's agreement to sell arms to Taiwan.
In this regard his long relationship with McConnell can go a long way toward making his presidency a successful one.
I still believe there is something that smells regarding his son and Biden's own denials and I do not believe he is physically and/or mentally up to the pressures/demands of the job.
Finally, I still hope The SCOTUS gets involved to insure the election has been cleared of any doubt regarding fraud so the world will continue to view America as a virtuous model and Biden will have no clouds over his head beyond those he created. In that regard, I commend Trump for fighting rather than lying down as Republicans generally do because they are wimps. Romney being the latest example. However, I hope Trump will allow the institutions our founders established in anticipation of what we are facing to do their work while he sits on this hands and mouth.
As they say, may God Bless America.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
As for the market, I am positive for the next 6 or so months because interest rates should remain low, the economy is in a recovery mode, a Covid vaccine is coming and this can only be viewed in a positive manner. If the consumer confidence index remains high, as it is now, then Biden will have wind at his back to help him through his beginning months and he can build upon these positive circumstances. No doubt the press will be positive, even glowing and he will not be impeached or tormented by the likes of Schumer, Pelosi, Schiff, Comey, Brennan etc. Republican equivalents.
I believe valuations between growth and value stocks remains too wide and hopefully will narrow favoring value and dividend stocks. Furthermore, when the world economy re-links the energy sector should reward those who have been patient and bruised.
I am going to take a look at Starbucks and AFLAC and continue to favor the health care, raw material, and selected financial sectors.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
No comments:
Post a Comment