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How to Become a Dangerous Person
How do you become “dangerous”? Writer and Portland-based podcaster Nancy Rommelmann would have thought she was the last person to answer that question—until she publicly dared to raise some questions about the #MeToo movement. Then her life suddenly changed and she became public enemy #1. She tells her astonishing story—what happened and why—in this compelling video.
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I spent this past weekend watching some great tennis, read more of Ash Carter's autobiography and did not catch much news. Apparently our insecure president tweeted and what he had to say created a firestorm of resentment and the New York Times now has proof he is a racist.
Trump cannot resist touching "wet paint" signs. I do not believe he is a racist. I believe he is just plain dumb when it comes to opening his mouth at the stupidity of others when he should just keep his mouth shut and/or respond in a less spiteful/combative manner. However, that is not his style and he will continue to do himself little good.
He makes it hard to support his policies when he makes it difficult to like the person behind them.
Even more importantly, Trump should know if he says the same thing Democrats say he will be punished by the mass media and Democrats will be ignored. At the present time Democrats are doing to each other what they love to do to their opponents. They are engaged in identity politics and throwing mud on each other. Why disrupt them?
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Another Rant from Ross. (See 1 below.)
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Dick
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1) The effort by the NY Fed and several major banks in the US to replace Libor with SOFR is pushing ahead again. There is a new push to have floating rate mortgages tie to SOFR. There is $1.2 trillion of US mortgage debt outstanding now and of that about $148 million has been priced to SOFR and sold to Fannie. Now Fannie and Freddie say they are prepared to purchase much more to jump start the use of SOFR. The full change over worldwide is set for 2021, but it remains unclear if that date will be met as many market players are not convinced to use SOFR. We will see how this plays out over the next year.
The Chinese announced lower growth figures for June, and those are most likely not the truth. The trade war is having a real impact and as things slow further, more producers will be moving out to other countries, accelerating the decline. The government will pump cash into the system and try to keep the economy growing, but that becomes a losing game at some point. Instead you create inflation. There is a shift happening to much more disbursed production around Asia and into Mexico, and possibly some back to the US, so the long term implications are unclear. Other countries like Vietnam and Taiwan will be longer term winners, which might be good for everyone other than China. The flight of production is just getting underway from China, as it takes a bit of time to gear up plants in other locations, but it is happening faster now that a trade deal is still very uncertain, and the threat of much more tariffs seems real. If China does not agree to a deal, they will have increasing problems and pressures, which is why Trump keeps saying I am in no rush.
230 of the S&P 500 yield in dividend return, more than the ten year. So it makes sense if you seek income plus some growth to look at a good dividend paying stock instead of bonds since the Fed may reduce rates and bond yields may drop. In addition, the small rise in ten year yields this past week suggests that cash is flowing out of bonds into stocks. It may be that for now the fear factor may be lessening and stocks are back in favor for some period, until the next big fear issue on trade or Iran. As many of you know I have been all equity since March 2009, and the results are wonderful. I held on through all of the December recession blather and downturn, as it never made sense to me to believe all the blather from Wall St talking heads and some economists, about recession fears. 2019 is on track for the best stock performance since the late 90’s, and if you have not been fully invested in all equities you missed it. I remain all in, and having my best year, by far, I ever had, up 30% YTD. I invest for growth, not income at this point, but could quickly shift if I think economic growth is ending. I think there is still more upside yet to come this year. If you are in annuities, or most mutual funds, you have missed the golden year to create wealth, and you pay big fees for the pleasure. I use Schwab and pay nothing, and no commissions for 2 years, but I do all my own stock selection, so it is not a strategy for people who do not understand economics and investing.
The ECB is again talking about reinstituting QE to try to improve the economy of the EU which is badly underperforming despite negative rates. Brexit is coming fast and a trade fight with the US is possible. Germany is contracting, and they were the engine of the EU. I continue to contend, investing in the EU in any way is a bad things to do. Their banks remain a mess and with negative rates, they do not make money. The EU also has demographic and ethnic issues which are only getting much worse thanks to Merkel and her Muslim open door policy she foisted on the rest of the EU. That is the perfect analogy to our southern border crisis.
Hotel investing has had its day. As always happens, times get good and supply increases more than demand. Stock prices ran up as the economy did very well, and more people took more vacations, and business travel. That growth is over. Revpar is flat with inflation and down in some markets. Transaction volume this year is down 45%. Hotels are generally over priced and their future performance is flat to negative. Despite a major study dome many years ago, industry pundits are now saying what that study proved- cap ex is really 6% not 3% of revenue. If you make that realistic adjustment, there are many hotels that would not make much money. To add to that, the PIP programs now required by brands tend to be even more costly making acquisitions more problematic. NYC has been, and continues to be, a hotel disaster with massive over building. Hotels is not where you want to be investing these days.
It is forecast that over 12,000 retail stores will close permanently this year. Malls are becoming combination retail, and entertainment and food. A 3 million sq ft mall is soon to open in NJ which will be half entertainment. The shift to online is accelerating and Amazon and Wal Mart are the big winners, although many retailers are figuring out how to compete with Amazon online. Logistics is key along automated warehouses and AI, and that appears to be getting resolved for many retailers.
The bartender from the Bronx and her anti-Semitic buddies have finally over-played their rhetoric by attacking Pelosi and suggesting she is racist. Their time would be over if the press would stop making them heroes. The same may be playing out for Harris who over-played her game suggesting Biden is a racist because he had effective dealings with senators who were racists. If that is how we are supposed to do things, then no president should ever talk to most other world leaders and try to negotiate with them as many are dictators and murderers. Harris, just like the bartender, pulled the race card, and it seems it may have begun to backfire. She picked the wrong target. What is really amazing is Pocahontas is so high in polls with her radical ideas. Maybe since she is favored by 15% of Dems who respond to polls, she is really favored by only 7% or fewer of real voters. One thing is very clear to me based on conversations with many people. If Trump had a good personality he would win all 50 states including CA and NY, but even very smart people say they will not vote for him no matter what the facts are about the economy, foreign policy, taxes and immigration, all of which they refuse to accept as valid. But none has any fact to refute any of the data, just Dem talking points. They say they will vote against their own best interests because they think he is a bad, dangerous guy. Yet not one can site a fact or data point to prove their point. They just rage about what a bad guy he is. It is really a lesson in how a population can be brainwashed by the press, and convinced to vote a certain way regardless of their own self-interest and intelligence. Ignore all the polls. They mean nothing at this time.
Now we have a strike by mostly Somali immigrants in Minneapolis against Amazon. These people were saved from possible death by being brought here, they have good, decent paying jobs thanks to Amazon, and now they want to strike the company that has made a decent life possible for them. They should all be fired and offered the opportunity to return to Somalia. I am sure none would go.
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