Monday, July 1, 2019

Trump And His Foreign Policy Methods. Consequences of Progressive Radical Insanity. Avi Discusses. Happiest Fourth.


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There is much to commend this editorial about the way Trump not only handles foreign diplomacy but also his recent conduct at the G 20 meeting.  (See 1 below.)

My own concern relates to presidential diplomacy that relies entirely  on self.  Since our presidents last 8 years,at best and then could be followed by someone with a substantially different personality and even come from the opposite party, the idea of a consistent foreign policy must be taken seriously and cannot be dismissed.

Getting a deal from China may take time but is far likelier. China is hurting but not like N Korea  and  XI  is more likely to make concessions because they are related to trade and not weapons.

In the case of  N Korea, Kim is being asked to give up nuclear weapons which have  given him prominence far beyond the economic importance of his nation. and it is possible Kim's military, who enjoy a special status, are not amenable to giving up their vaulted position.

Both China and N Korea are crafty and no matter what we might reach , by way of an agreement, history shows it cannot be relied upon unless strictly enforced.

Until something is reached and a lock is placed on it the situation will remain fluid.

To Trump's credit he is willing to change the status quo and is taking what he thinks is the best route to achieve same. I suspect his detractors are jealous and from a campaigning view, given the opportunity, would love to trade places.  Stay tuned
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I recently heard a report stating the median wage earner in California needs 47 years before they have saved enough for the down payment on a median priced California home and it takes 45 years in New York.

How's that for the consequences of progressive policies?

Progressive radical college loan policies pushed education beyond affordability of most so now Democrats want the tax payer to pay off their tuition debt. This sends a nice message. Maybe the next move is to get tax payers to pay off car loans and a home down payment so the economy can keep humming.  Sound insane?  Explain why? If the cost is too high we can shut down The Homeland Security Agency, get rid of ICE, open our borders, raise the minimum wage level and that will solve any economic problems.  After all, California is thriving except for some neighborhoods no longer livable because the streets are full of feces, homeless and neighborhoods are having a bout of typhoid.  Meanwhile,the streets are void of police who are having to call in sick but at least Californians are doing the moral thing by way of illegals.

Overstating the case? Fly out to San Fran and give it a look then, come 2020 vote for Kamala who supports this insanity. If not her, then one of  the other assortment of liberal geniuses.

As for Oregon, police did not show up at a riot recently because a mayor, of one of their major cities, favors Antifa thugs over free speech. Meanwhile, the mass media and their Trump Haters attack him for his railing against his treatment from the mass media. Anyone remember what Obama did to Reporter Rosen?
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My friend, Avi,discusses  his invitation, visit and discussion of innovation regarding technology taking place between Palestinian's and Israeli's  in locations beyond the Green Line Border (See 2 below.)
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Dick
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1) The Trump Doctrine

With this President, the diplomacy is always personal.

The Editorial Board

President Trump believes in personal diplomacy and showmanship above all in foreign policy, and both were on display this weekend in East Asia for better or worse. If nothing else, Mr. Trump has revived negotiations that had stalled with China and North Korea as he looks for a foreign-policy victory heading into a re-election campaign.

Most startling was his last-minute invitation, via social media, to North Korea’s Kim Jong Un for a handshake across the demilitarized zone with South Korea. Mr. Kim accepted, and Mr. Trump became the first American President to set foot in North Korea.
The symbolism was more potent than the substance. Mr. Trump is betting, as he always does, that flattery and personal engagement can persuade Mr. Kim to give up his nuclear weapons. “A lot of great triumphs have been based on relationships,” the President said Sunday in perhaps the purest distillation of a Trump Doctrine.
The two men ordered aides to resume negotiations, though who will represent the North isn’t clear. Previous translators and negotiators have vanished without a trace, and the U.S. believes one or more have been killed for displeasing Mr. Kim. This is a reminder of the brutal nature of the Kim regime, which has long viewed nuclear weapons as essential to its survival.

At least for now, Mr. Trump’s DMZ diplomacy has reduced the chances of new North Korean nuclear tests. But Mr. Kim wants the U.S. to ease sanctions before he takes even modest steps to disclose his research labs, test facilities and nuclear stockpiles, much less dismantle them. Without such a declaration, North Korean pledges are worthless.


Mr. Trump made more substantive progress with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The two declared a trade truce while agreeing to resume negotiations toward a larger deal. Mr. Trump put on hold his plans for tariffs on $300 billion more of Chinese goods and he will let U.S. firms resume selling technology to Huawei, the Chinese telecom giant. Mr. Trump said China will begin buying U.S. farm goods, though what and how much isn’t clear.
The truce at least stops the escalation that would have damaged the economy of both countries. This doesn’t guarantee a deal, but it does ease the economic damage from trade uncertainty as the talks continue. That’s especially important for Mr. Trump in farm country, which has borne the brunt of China’s retaliation against the U.S.
The best outcome would be a deal in which Mr. Xi agrees to stop the theft of intellectual property and other abuses against foreign companies. In return Mr. Trump would lift all current tariffs on Chinese goods. Mr. Xi could say he won something in return for making policy changes. And if China fails to fulfill its pledges, Mr. Trump would have the option to restore tariffs in a second term.
Democrats will criticize Mr. Trump no matter what deal he strikes, as Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer did his Huawei concession. But the U.S. business community will be the best judge of whether a trade deal is good or bad, and Mr. Trump needs a strong economy if he wants to be re-elected.

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A final word about Mr. Trump’s joking admonition to Vladimir Putin, in front of the TV cameras, not to interfere in U.S. elections. The Russian dictator smirked, and the press pounced. These media critics have little credibility given how they ignored Barack Obama’s whispers to Dmitry Medvedev in 2012 that he’d have more flexibility after his re-election; how they cheered John Kerry in his concessions to Iran; and how they winked at Mr. Obama’s one-sided deal with Cuba’s Raul Castro.
But Mr. Trump’s public canoodling with Mr. Putin is still a sorry spectacle. The Mueller report found no collusion between Mr. Trump and Russia, but the report and the House and Senate Intelligence Committees have proved beyond doubt that Russia meddled in the election to foment doubt about the result.
Mr. Trump should be angrier than anyone since this Russian interference has haunted his entire Presidency. By pretending it’s a joke he looks like a Putin supplicant. One of our worries about a second term is that Mr. Trump would seek an arms-control deal with Russia that betrays Ukraine and European defenses.
Personal diplomacy has its uses, as George H.W. Bush in particular showed as President. But Mr. Trump doesn’t need to flatter tyrants as if they are great leaders. These hard men will make decisions based on raw national interest, not because they like Mr. Trump.
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2)The Arab World’s Innovation Ecosystem
By Avi Jorisch

Walking into Nazareth’s Saint Gabriel Hotel felt like entering the Star Wars cantina. People were playing Hacky Sack, flying drones and jumping out windows onto large air cushions to test their velocity. I half expected to see Jabba the Hutt. A few years ago Yossi Vardi, one of the godfathers of Israel’s high-tech revolution, invited me to his annual Kinnernet retreat, a gathering of tech entrepreneurs known for bringing together Israeli Jews, Christians and Muslims, as well as Palestinians from the West Bank. I met some of Israel’s – and the world’s – leading minds and was exposed to many of the innovations coming out of Israel. As I look back, that served as the beginning of my journey to understand why so much innovation was happening in Israel. But there has also been a gnawing voice in my head: Could there be an innovation culture just beyond the country’s borders?

And there began another journey. I crossed the Green Line, the border created after the 1949 armistice between Israel and its Arab neighbors. A man I will call Ahmed, who attended Kinnernet, had invited me to see for myself what was going on in Nablus. There, I learned to my great surprise about a startup scene in the Palestinian territories. Israelis and Palestinians are grappling with land disputes, water rights, refugees and a host of painful issues, but many of the entrepreneurs I spoke to believe innovation can serve as a powerful bridge between two groups that have been fighting for generations. Ahmed then came to visit me and my family in Washington. He introduced me to a few of his friends in the Middle East tech scene. “Have you read Chris Schroeder’s book?” they asked. “It will blow your mind.”

I wasn’t fully prepared for the narrative in Schroeder’s book, but I should have been. About twenty years ago, I lived in Cairo as a young graduate student and witnessed the very beginning of the Arab world’s exposure to the Internet and cellphones. If you followed the news only casually, you might think daily life in Israel and the Arab world is nothing but violence – war, suicide bombings, stabbings, car-rammings. True, the region does suffer its share of turmoil. But anyone who has spent time in Israel knows there is another country – the startup nation. What I didn’t fully appreciate until I read Startup Rising: The Entrepreneurial Revolution Remaking the Middle East (St. Martin’s Press, 2013), is that a different reality is beginning to take shape around the Arab world.

Schroeder does not shy away from the big problems facing the region, including political corruption, government brutality and the status of women. He begins his book by describing a challenge that anyone who has been to the Arab world knows well: wasta, meaning insider connections, particularly in government circles. Schroeder makes a compelling argument that people throughout the Middle East/North Africa (MENA) are yearning for a better reality, and with increasing internet and smartphone use, this is already playing a role in changing attitudes. According to the 
GSM Association, a trade body representing the interests of mobile network operators worldwide, in 2017 there were 365 million unique subscribers across the MENA region, accounting for 63 percent of the population. The Internet and smartphones are providing more equal access to information and global opportunities, thus reducing reliance on wasta. Thishas allowed many people to circumvent the system and enabled Middle Eastern countries to begin the long journey toward cultural change.

The book exposes readers to Fadi Ghandour, founder of Aramex, an international express, mail delivery and logistics company based in Dubai and the first Arab company to be listed on the NASDAQ. It also features Samih Toukan, cofounder of Maktoob, the region’s first Arabic-English email service provider, purchased by Yahoo! in 2009 for $175 million. Like Israel’s Vardi, Ghandour and Toukan are using their wealth to support the next generation of innovators and spawn a more entrepreneurial ecosystem.

Startup Risingtakes readers through a journey with three types of actors: One is the improvisers, like Maktoob, that have used models that worked elsewhere. The second is problem solvers, who tackle local and regional challenges, often with a social mission, which Schroeder attributes in part to the Arab revolution’s attempt to change society. legacy of changing society. Examples of problem solvers are 
Bey2ollak, an app trying to solve Cairo’s traffic problems, and RecycloBekia, which recycles electronic waste. Last are the global players, building ventures to try to impact the entire world, such as Clear Day, a weather app, and Instabeat, the first goggle-mounted performance trainer with real-time visual feedback.

Schroeder also describes the various platforms giving entrepreneurs the tools to succeed. This includes investors, such as the 
Jabbar Investment Fund, Egypt’s Flat6Labs and Jordan’s Oasis500 accelerators; conveners who connect the ecosystem physically and virtually, like ArabNet, which organizes major tech conferences throughout the region; and Wamda.com, which provides news and insights on the Middle Eastern tech scene. Startup Risingalso delves into some of the trends allowing women to create businesses, voice their needs and express their concerns. In addition, Schroeder addresses Islam, primarily in the context of how companies choose to invest, and specifically, the system of sharia-compliant finance. He also delves into technology’s impact on how Islam is practiced, and platforms that allow for open discussion of many of the challenges facing the region and adherents of Islam.

I have to admit that I was skeptical as I read the book. I kept thinking that it could not possibly be true. I started a Google alert for innovation and various countries in the region. I checked out the websites of the companies Schroeder discussed. I kept going back to Wamda.com to try to get a handle on this part of the world, and I had to remind myself that just as Israel is more complex than any single narrative about it, the same holds true of other countries in the region. Many observers of the Middle East view the region through the lens of terrorism, corruption and radical Islam. While keeping in mind the challenges these issues present, viewing the Middle East though innovation and entrepreneurship is not only more inspiring, but could be a key to helping bridge the divide between Arabs and Israelis seeking peace and prosperity. Six years after Schroeder published the book, many of the trends, companies and individuals he featured are reshaping the region in meaningful ways.

Schroeder isn’t your typical author. A successful entrepreneur, advisor and investor in interactive technologies and social innovation, his interest in the Middle East began in earnest after the attacks of September 11. A member of the Young Presidents’ Organization (YPO), a discreet network of ultra-successful executives, he began his look at the region through a YPO subgroup that seeks to build connections between US and Middle East CEOs. After reading Startup Rising, I had a much more hopeful vision of what a new Middle East could become in the coming decades if those featured in the book can succeed and eventually take the reins of power. If nothing else, the book gave me a ringside view into a world beyond my current imagination.

Avi Jorisch is the author of 
Thou Shalt Innovate: How Israeli Ingenuity Repairs the World (Gefen Publishing). He is also a Senior Fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council and the Israel Project.
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