Saturday, March 2, 2019

Adelson Fighting Cancer. Good News From Israel.Unable To Play Tennis Leaves More Time To Worry About Matters I cannot Solve.




Sheldon Adelson, 85, a confidant of US President Donald Trump who conditioned massive contributions to his campaign on his relocating the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, is undergoing treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma.
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Tennessee
A Tennessee State trooper pulled over a pickup on I-65. The trooper asked, "Got any ID?"
The driver replied, "Bout whut?"
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 So you think Venezuela is easy pickings? (See 1 below.)
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More good news from Israel. (See 2 below.)
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Trump has chosen to tackle some thorny unresolved issues.  First it was trade imbalance, then it was the nuclear threat from N Korea and now  resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian issue.  These are all intractable issues and leave Trump open to criticism and failure but at least he is taking an unorthodox and  fresh approach realizing the old ones are stale. (See 3 and 3a below.)
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Several thoughts.

We know Trump knew few professional politicians after he became president and he subsequently made appointments  who helped him,were loyal but were not up to the demands of the pressures. of The White House.

Some of these appointees have broken laws for a variety of matters that Mueller uncovered as he probed for Russian Collusion.

Now many of these same people are being relied upon for their expertise and veracity. DUH!
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I often take on "linkages" that are both beyond my intellectual scope and ability to write clearly but I am going to try because I find what I have just read to be very disturbing.

Those who read my memos know I subscribe to the: "Naval War College Review" and often report on articles I find of particular interest. I found several articles in the Winter Review fascinating, revealing and bothersome.

I will begin stating the current condition we find ourselves in did not occur over night. What college students are being exposed to took years to bring about. First, we reduced the quality of  basic education because we allowed curricula to be impacted by political correct thinking,and we wanted to protect our "little darlings" from home work and stressful thinking and then our "illiterate munchkins" went to college and their "snowflake" minds were exposed to radical thinking emanating from departments filled with thinkers from the far left.  Over several decades graduates from these elite colleges began to be employed in high level and influential  positions and their thinking impacted and shaped the way we chose to govern ourselves and the type of candidates we elected.

AOC comes to mind.

We are where we are today contemplating socialism and other zany ideas because we failed to challenge subtle changes we allowed to take place. No it did not occur over night.

Today I read several articles that verify what I have been saying for years. China is gaining mastery of the seas right before our very eyes.  The three articles are by: James E Fanell, "China's Global Naval Strategy And Expanding Force Structure, Christopher R. O'Dea: "Ships of State" and Martin N Murphy: "Does Europe Still Get It?"

They are very technical but the bottom line essence is that China's strategy:  The People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is being implemented and accelerated.  The initial goal is to acquire naval bases for commercial purposes while simultaneously expanding its commercial fleet (COSCO), loaning huge sums to various countries to expand these jointly owned facilities with Chinese Huawei Technology.

The first article calculates China currently has a surface combatant fleet of 331 vessels and a total of 66 submarines. By 2030 , the author forecasts China will have 432 surface vessels and 99 submarines.

The author also states China will eclipse America's naval capability in the next few years and we should not be surprised if it attacks Taiwan shortly after 2020.

The second article discusses how China has begun building a massive fleet of out sized commercial vessels and have been rehabilitating port facilities so they will be capable of handing their vastly expanded tonnage. At the end of the day, China's  transportation costs should  become exceedingly competitive .

China's expanding world wide commercial interests demand a comparable effort to protect these commercial interests militarily and before we are able to protect open sea lanes,  where virtually all of the world's sea traffic operates, China will be in a position to dictate which ports will allow other nation's ships to use.

Also, China is currently using it's laws to shape restrictions and their presence is beginning to give them political leverage.  If all of this is not bad enough,China has been making loans to a variety of  partnering nations increasingly  incapable of meeting loan re-payments so China is making concessions that result in greater control and ownership of these facilities.

China is not necessarily interested in currently making a profit from each port facility.  They are being financed by the government which has a grand design far beyond profitability.  China seeks to control world trade by controlling the seas.

PLAN is based on a long term commitment to carry out a well thought out goal.  What are we and Europe doing about this?

We know America's Naval Fleet  currently is around the level it was in The First World War.

The third article discusses naval preparedness of our so called NATO allies.  Britain  no longer is considered to have a world class fleet and France is far behind.  Both nations would have to rely, to some degree, on American Naval Power.

All three articles, in varying degrees, discuss China's expanding amphibious capability and surge in training of expanded forces.  China's missile capabilities/accuracy now threaten our port facilities and bases which, a decade ago, were out of range.  Not only has China improved its offensive weaponry but by expanding  their "coral" bases they have cut down on distances and ranges.

Where is the linkage?  America's education erosion , as I have said, did not take place over night.  America's military capabilities, particularly it's naval fleet, did not erode over night nor did China's emergence as a challenging power did not happen over night.

What have we been doing about this?  First, we have been engaged in figuring out how we can impeach a duly elected president.  Second, we allowed our manufacturing ability to move offshore and, until recently, we could not continue space exploration unless we relied upon Russian Rocketry.

We are busily debating whether we need secure borders and exploring further destruction of what made America great. and what increased wants can be turned into entitlements by borrowing money from China.

Since I am currently unable to play tennis, I have more time to worry about matters I cannot solve.
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Dick
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1)

Venezuela in Crisis: Iran's Poisonous Role

Nicolás Maduro's regime in Venezuela is fortified by Russian mercenaries, Cuban paramilitary elements, Hezbollah, and Iranian Basij and Quds Force operatives. Even if the Venezuelan military defects to support interim President Juan Guaidó, they would still have to face up to the foreign irregular forces supporting Maduro. What is behind Iranian and Hezbollah penetration into Venezuela and other parts of South America? WATCH NOW...
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2)






You can almost feel the energy from Israeli activities in this week' s newsletter. Israel's spaceship goes into higher orbit; renewable energy records are broken; and there are many other powerful Israeli achievements in the medical, scientific and economic arenas.

(P
hoto is of a solar energy array in Israel's Arava desert.)

Best regards and Shalom.
Michael
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In the 3rd Mar 19 edition of Israel’s good news, the highlights include:

  • A safe Israeli blood test checks for genetic mutations in early pregnancy.
  • Israeli doctors used stem cells to restore a woman’s eyesight.
  • A new training program for Israeli Druze to become leaders.
  • Hungary and Slovakia are opening diplomatic offices in Jerusalem.
  • New cars in Israel can automatically dial an ambulance after an accident.
  • Israel set a new record for its use of renewable energy.
  • Walmart has bought its first Israeli startup.
  • An Israeli-directed film won an Oscar at the Academy Award

 ISRAEL’S MEDICAL ACHIEVEMENTS

Early pregnancy blood test for genetic disorders. Researchers at Tel Aviv University have developed a new blood test to detect genetic disorders in fetuses as early as 11 weeks into pregnancy. DNA in the mother and father’s blood is sequenced. Then fetal DNA fragments in the mother’s blood is checked for any mutations.
https://www.jpost.com/Jpost-Tech/Business-and-Innovation/TAU-develops-blood-test-to-detect-genetic-disorders-in-early-pregnancy-581252

Identifying the early signs of heart failure. Israel’s Technion has partnered with Israeli startup Cordio Medical to develop a smartphone app to identify the first signs of heart failure. The app detects changes in a person’s voice due to lung fluid - an early warning of congestive heart failure. Clinical trials are in progress.
https://jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/technion-working-with-startup-on-app-to-identify-early-signs-of-heart-failure/

AI system for diabetes treatment. I reported previously (see here) on Israel’s DreaMed Diabetes monitors. DreaMed has just partnered with French company BioCorp to create an Artificially Intelligent system that integrates BioCorp’s Mallya smart cap for pen injectors with DreaMed’s Advisor Pro insulin analysis system.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20190220005514/en/BIOCORP-DreaMed-Diabetes-Join-Offer-Outstanding-AI   https://dreamed-diabetes.com/advisor/

Artificial Intelligence to benefit humanity. A brief introduction to Israel’s Weizmann Institute’s new Artificial Intelligence Center for Scientific Exploration.  It highlights Professor Yaron Lipman’s recent AI breakthrough in developing the On-Sight algorithm to automate heart function measurement from ultrasound.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ITAtrt7iv6s
https://wis-wander.weizmann.ac.il/math-computer-science/algorithm-rivals-experts-could-save-lives

Why black women suffer hair loss. A 7-year international study led by Tel Aviv Sourasky Medical Center’s Professor Eli Sprecher, has revealed that a defect in the protein gene PAD13 is responsible for hair loss due to Central Centrifugal Cicatricial Alopecia [CCCA]. The condition affects 5% of African-American women.
https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Bald-black-woman-Israeli-scientists-make-the-leap-towards-a-cure-580698
https://read.qxmd.com/read/30763140/variant-padi3-in-central-centrifugal-cicatricial-alopecia

Predicting sports injuries. Israeli-founded startup Zone7 (InPlay Ltd) has developed software that analyzes data from wearables and video, tracks medical condition and performance and forecasts injuries. It is used by soccer clubs in the UK, Israel, and Spain. Zone7 has just raised $2.5 million including from top sportsmen.
https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/articles/0,7340,L-3756158,00.html http://zone7.ai/

Hotline saves Israeli lives. ERAN is Israel’s only crisis intervention hotline, with 1,200 vetted and highly-trained volunteers, plus 25 full and part-time staff.  They handled nearly 200,000 calls in 2018 and prevented some 800 likely suicides. ERAN has also trained 25 ex-pat Israelis in Canada to help cover overnight shifts.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-expats-in-canada-staff-hebrew-suicide-hotline-to-serve-their-homeland/

Stem cell transplant restored vision. Surgeons at Haifa’s Rambam hospital have restored vision to a woman suffering from chemical burns on her eyes. They took amniotic membrane from a mother who had undergone a Caesarian section and sewed it underneath the patient’s eyelids. After a short recovery, she could see!
https://unitedwithisrael.org/israqeli-doctors-restore-vision-with-revolutionary-membrane-transplant/

A center for stem cell donations. Israel has just opened the Ezer Mizion Stem Cell Harvesting Center - the first Israeli medical center specially designed to collect stem cells for bone marrow transplants. It will enable the public to donate stem cells in a dedicated environment, without having to spend up to 7 hours in hospital.
http://www.ezermizion.org/blog/israels-first-stem-cell-harvesting-center-established-outside-of-a-hospital-opened-by-ezer-mizion/

Eat healthy in Israel. (TY Jacob Richman) The Israel Ministry of Health has been running a TV and social media campaign against processed food. It recommends alternatives such as fresh chicken, legumes, and fresh vegetables. Jacob has created a page of the videos with English translations.
https://jr.co.il/videos/eat-healthy-hebrew-videos.htm
https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/articles/0,7340,L-3757091,00.html


ISRAEL IS INCLUSIVE AND GLOBAL

All Israelis can get close to nature. (TY UWI) Over the past 10 years, progressive legislation has improved access for the disabled to enjoy Israel’s parks and forests. Accessibility facilities have been installed in some 70 sites administered by the Israel Nature and Parks Authority (INPA) and in 300 forests managed by KKL-JNF.
https://www.israel21c.org/israeli-nature-sites-are-an-accessible-walk-in-the-park/  https://www.aisrael.org/eng

US honors Knesset for its disabled employees. A special delegation from the US presented Knesset Speaker Yuli Edelstein with the Champion of the People Award for his efforts to integrate persons with disabilities and special needs into society. It specifically cited the Knesset’s workforce of which 5% are classified as disabled.
https://www.jewishpress.com/news/israel/the-knesset/us-honors-knesset-for-employment-of-disabled-persons/2019/02/26/

The first Druze hi-tech accelerator program. The Israeli Government together with the Druze Veterans Association have launched the first Druze hi-tech accelerator program in Daliyat al-Karmel. It aims to extend the leadership roles of Israeli Druze when they finish their IDF service and return to civilian life.
https://unitedwithisrael.org/program-aims-to-accelerate-druze-leadership-in-israeli-hi-tech/

Jewish-Arab partnerships in Judea & Samaria. The Judea Samaria Regional Development Financing Initiative (RDFI) encourages joint entrepreneurship between Israelis and Palestinian Arabs living in Judea and Samaria. Initial projects include technology, industry, tourism, the environment, energy and infrastructure.
https://www.jewishpress.com/news/business-economy/israelis-and-arabs-launch-first-of-its-kind-joint-economic-initiative/2019/02/21/

Why Gazans prefer Israeli products.  There is no boycott of Israeli goods in Gaza. According to the Gaza Economy Ministry, 65% of all Gaza’s imports are made in Israel. Products made in Gaza are unpopular due lack of supervision, poor quality control, forged expiry dates and poor safety standards in Gazan factories.
https://www.jpost.com/Magazine/Why-are-Israeli-food-products-so-popular-in-Gaza-580561

A connected people. (TY UWI) Back in 2012 (see here) I reported that Israelis were avid users of the Internet. A new (Pew) study shows 77% of Israelis use social media – the most in the world. And 88% have smartphones, (second only to South Korea) making Israelis one of the most connected nations in the world.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israelis-are-worlds-top-users-of-social-media-survey-finds/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M23qT2d6UUs

Ugandan President explains Israel to Jewish leaders. Before visiting Israel, the Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations visited Africa. The President of Uganda, Yoweri Museveni, gave them a lecture on why the Jews have an historic right to be in Israel, even citing biblical references.
https://www.jns.org/conference-of-presidents-of-major-american-jewish-organizations-visits-africa/  

Australia marks 70 years of friendship with Israel. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison marked 70 years of Australia-Israel relations with a moving speech in Australia’s Parliament. He praised Israel as a beacon of democracy in the Middle East; its multicultural character, science, research, innovation and free press.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFsAyYJwORY

Hungary & Slovakia to open Jerusalem centers. Slovakian PM Peter Pellegrini confirmed that Slovakia is to open a new information, cultural and innovation center in Jerusalem. Hungarian PM Viktor Orban promised to expand the Hungarian Embassy in Israel, and to open a trade representation in Jerusalem with diplomatic status.
https://worldisraelnews.com/hungary-and-slovakia-will-open-diplomatic-offices-in-jerusalem/

Israel is Czech Republic’s strategic partner. Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu welcomed Czech Republic PM Andrek Babis to Jerusalem on his first visit to Israel. They plan to sign agreements for defense, technology and innovation, especially on water issues. Mr Babis said “Israel is our strategic partner in the Middle East.”
https://www.jewishpress.com/news/business-economy/netanyahu-welcomes-czech-prime-minister-on-first-visit-to-israel-sees-ample-room-for-cooperation/2019/02/19/


SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

Israel’s moon mission is on course. SpaceIL’s Beresheet spacecraft completed a vital maneuver on 28 Feb to increase its maximum orbit distance from Earth. Despite two glitches, it is still on track to land on the moon on April 11. Website for more info on Beresheet - https://jr.co.il/t/beresheet.htm (TY Jacob Richman)  
https://www.timesofisrael.com/following-setback-beresheet-spacecraft-completes-successful-maneuver/
http://nocamels.com/2019/02/israel-beresheet-spacecraft-tech-achievement/ Live data http://live.spaceil.com/

New record for renewable energy. On 13th Feb a new Israeli record for electricity generated from renewable sources was set. The 1295 megawatts produced was 16.4% of Israel’s total production of energy on that day.  Annually, Israel generates 7% of its electricity from renewables, which is planned to grow to 10% in 2020.
https://www.jewishpress.com/news/business-economy/israel-sets-new-record-in-using-renewable-energies/2019/02/19/

UK students get the Technion perspective. Three professors from Israel’s Technion Institute gave lectures to large numbers of non-Jewish UK biology students at London’s Science Museum. Separately, Technion UK CEO Alan Aziz is organizing a trip for 60 students from Imperial College London to Israel in March.
https://jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/non-jewish-a-level-biology-students-hear-israeli-experts-at-science-museum/

Detecting water leaks from outer space. I reported previously (see here) on Israel’s Utilis which detect leaks in water pipes using satellite data and technology developed to detect water on Mars and Venus.  Utilis now works with 120 water companies in 31 countries. (Of course, the BBC video doesn’t mention it’s Israeli.)
https://www.timesofisrael.com/outer-space-tech-used-by-israeli-startup-to-find-water-leaks-on-earth/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7aPEz1nPQkhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_a-CwYy7KZE

Preventing nuclear meltdown. Due to the enormous temperatures from nuclear fission, safety procedures for nuclear reactors previously could only be tested using computer simulations. Ben Gurion University and French scientists are now to build (in France) an experimental reactor named “ZEPHYR” to conduct actual tests.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/er.4313

Delivering pesticides drop by drop. Israeli drip irrigation specialists Netafim and Ben Gurion University’s BGN Technologies have signed a 3-year partnership with Bayer AG. The three will develop drip irrigation as a delivery system for Bayer’s pesticide to combat plant-parasitic worms and other crop protection products.
https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/articles/0,7340,L-3756111,00.html
https://aabgu.org/bgu-bayer-drip-irrigation/

The gym that you wear. The Israeli-developed Hyfit Wearable Gym comprises a system of resistance bands to enable the performance of 250 different exercises. Embedded sensors track progress, resistance and calories burned. The companion app provides feedback, motivation and helps plan exercise routines.
https://www.israel21c.org/israels-hyfit-rolls-out-a-smart-portable-workout-system/  https://www.hyfitgear.com/
https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/65920045/hyfit-wearable-gym-21st-century-workout-gear
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQgNK7yHXfY

Your car can phone the emergency services. (TY UWI) Thanks to a joint venture between Israeli startup MDGo and Magen David Adom (MDA), new cars involved in crashes in Israel are able to call for ambulances autonomously, using sensors to report the exact location as well as likely injuries to the driver and passengers.
https://www.israel21c.org/now-your-car-can-call-an-ambulance-for-you/

Israel’s IoT revolution. Does your fridge know that you’re hungry? Does your shirt know how you feel?  Does your car talk to you?  The IoT (Internet of Things) can connect almost everything to the Internet. See here AutoTel (car rental), Prisma Photonics (fiber sensing) and Quickwy / Nexite (clothing tags).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Me8lXvKtgTw  https://www.nexite.io/https://www.autotel.co.il/en/#
https://www.prismaphotonics.com/ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=InuPRZjwykU

One to watch.  There are too many new Israeli cybersecurity startups for me to report on all of them. However, it is worth keeping an eye on nsKnox Technologies whose payment protection technology allows companies to validate payment authenticity. nsKnox’s founder Alon Cohen previously founded security giant CyberArk.
https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/articles/0,7340,L-3756660,00.html

See Quantum particles move. Tel Aviv University scientists have developed unique spatiotemporal imaging technology to capture the movement of excitons (tiny Quantum particles). They now hope to discover ways of manipulating and storing light for use in communications and photonics-based quantum computers.
https://www.aftau.org/news-page-computers--technology?&storyid4702=2437&ncs4702=3
http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/2/eaat9618

Sea squirts can measure pollution. (TY Stuart) Tel Aviv University researchers have found that ascidians (sea squirts) can help measure plastic pollution. They filter tiny particles from the ocean and store them in their soft tissue.  https://www.aftau.org/news-page-environment--ecology?&storyid4703=2431&ncs4703=3


ECONOMY & BUSINESS

UK signs trade deal with Israel. I reported previously (26th Jan) that a post-Brexit free-trade deal between Britain and Israel had been agreed in principle. The detailed work has been now completed and the agreement has been formally signed.  http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/259252

The world’s largest local payments network. Israeli startup Rapyd Financial Networks has developed a service to transfer funds through cash, bank transfers, digital wallets, local cards and 300+ other payment methods. It supports 65 currencies, providing access to 2.3 billion consumers in over 100 countries.
https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/articles/0,7340,L-3756279,00.html  https://www.rapyd.net/

Philips accelerates Israeli sleep startup. I reported previously (2nd Sep) on Israel’s Dayzz and its app to help companies diagnose the sleep problems of their employees. Dutch multinational Philips has just selected Dayzz to participate in its inaugural 12-week Healthworks accelerator program for sleep-related startups.
https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/articles/0,7340,L-3756359,00.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0IuM59-1y9U

Orbotech’s $3.4 billion exit approved. I reported previously (8th Apr) that US giant KLA-Tencor was acquiring Israel’s Orbotech for $3.4 billion.  As the companies operate in Korea, Israel, the US, Taiwan, Japan and China, regulators in all these countries had to approve the deal.  China (the last) has finally done so.
https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/articles/0,7340,L-3756588,00.html  

Demisto exits for $560 million. I reported previously (Feb 2017) when Israel’s Demisto raised $20 million to help develop its automated computer security incident management platform. Palo Alto Networks has now agreed to acquire Demisto for $560 million in cash and stock. It’s Palo Alto’s 3rd Israeli acquisition.
https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/articles/0,7340,L-3756664,00.html

Forever 21 integrates Israeli app. I reported previously (Aug 2015) on the artificially intelligent app from Israel’s Donde that trawls images of fashion products to help customers in their search. Donde has now been integrated into fashion retailer Forever 21’s website. It has also just raised $6.5 million of funds.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180822005090/en/21-Introduces-AI-Powered-Visual-Search-Navigation-Donde  https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/articles/0,7340,L-3756645,00.html
https://www.dondesearch.com/

Bamba is booming. Osem-Nestle has just opened a NIS 200 million new factory in Kiryat Gat that will double its production capacity and increase output of its iconic Bamba peanut snack to 1.5 million bags a day. Walmart has started stocking Bamba and other retail chains in the US and Europe are expected to follow.
https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-osem-ceo-our-dream-bamba-in-every-us-supermarket-1001273833
https://www.israel21c.org/now-you-can-buy-bamba-in-walmart-and-soon-in-more-stores/

Walmart’s first Israeli acquisition.  Maybe it was all the Bamba bags in their stores that convinced Walmart to buy product review insight company Aspectiva - its first Israeli startup. Aspectiva’s artificial intelligence algorithms analyze product reviews and personalize the way that Walmart’s customers filter their searches.
https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/articles/0,7340,L-3757133,00.html


CULTURE, ENTERTAINMENT & SPORT

Israeli director wins Oscar for best Short. Israeli director Guy Nattiv won the Oscar for “Live Action Short Film” with his movie "Skin" at the Academy Awards. The 20-minute movie deals with a hate crime and its ramifications from the point of view of two children, one white and the other black.
https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5469547,00.html

Bob Marley in Israel. With themes from the Jewish Bible playing a central role in reggae music for the past half century, Israel was the perfect place to celebrate the late Bob Marley on what would have been his 74th birthday. https://unitedwithisrael.org/watch-jamaican-reggae-star-spreads-one-love-message-in-israel/


THE JEWISH STATE

How Israel got into space. In 1961 the US-Russian space race was in full swing. Meanwhile, German scientists were helping Egypt build missiles to attack Israel. So Israeli PM David Ben Gurion ordered Rafael (Israel’s armaments authority) to demonstrate Israel’s capabilities by building Israel’s first rocket into space.
https://www.israel21c.org/did-you-know-israel-sent-a-rocket-into-space-in-1961/

Birthright is still growing. The Taglit-Birthright program in 2018 brought a record 48,000-plus young Jews from 67 countries to see Israel for the first time. In total 650,000 Jews have had the 10-day Birthright experience, and now Birthright is piloting 7-day tours for young adults aged 27 to 32.
https://www.jns.org/relevant-responsive-ready-birthright-at-19-still-growing-strong/
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TRUMP’S PLAN IS OPPORTUNITY TO CHANGE PARADIGM

There are clear signs that the Trump administration’s “deal of the century” – the plan to solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict – is in its last stages of formulation, and will be submitted to the quarreling parties after Israel’s elections and the formation of a new government. The plan’s details are being kept secret, but it probably deals with core issues, such as borders, Jerusalema, and refugees. The Trump administration will also probably offer significant economic incentives, especially to the Palestinians, in order to sweeten the deal. The American administration’s plan is based on the international community’s prevailing assumption that peace requires implementation of the “two states for two peoples” concept.

Any government elected in Israel will undoubtedly agree to discuss the plan with the Americans, even if it is skeptical of the American enthusiasm for bringing peace to our region. If he secures another term as prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who agreed to discuss a plan designed by the Obama administration, will undoubtedly keep his promise to welcome the Trump plan. A government headed by Benny Gantz would also certainly not dismiss an American peace initiative.

What the Palestinian leadership will do is also entirely predictable. The Palestinian leaders, who are boycotting the many channels for dialogue with the Americans, will continue their intransigence. The Trump administration’s offer is unlikely to be more generous than the far-reaching concessions offered in negotiations by former prime ministers Ehud Barak and Ehud Olmert, which were unacceptable to the Palestinians.

The more important fact is that Israeli concessions of yesteryear are no longer relevant. While it is not clear that Barak or Olmert could have delivered, had the Palestinians been ready to sign a deal, such Israeli “flexibility” is nowadays regarded as extremely dangerous in terms of national security. The Oslo process is deemed a strategic blunder, and most Israelis do not regard the Palestinians as neighbors with whom it is possible to live in peace.

Most Israelis realize the gap between the positions of the Zionist movement and the Palestinian national movement are unbridgeable. Moreover, it now clear that the Palestinians are incapable of establishing a state with a monopoly on the use of force. They are unable to exercise control over their own armed militias, one of which, Hamas, conquered the Gaza Strip. In fact, the Palestinian inability to sustain a state infrastructure is a phenomenon that beleaguers Arab political culture elsewhere, too. Alas, an end to the conflict is remote because the two national movements still possess the energy to continue fighting for purposes that are more important to them than peace, such as control over Jerusalem.

Thus, the “deal of the century” will not solve the conflict. Its substance offers no salvation. It will suffer the same fate as previous American initiatives. However, there is hope in the people behind it. The Trump administration has no allegiance to accepted diplomatic formulas and political correctness. The failure of the “deal of the century” may motivate it to adopt a different paradigm.

Israel’s job is to show the Americans that the effort to establish “two states for two peoples” is not feasible at present, and will not attain stability. Israel’s policy of managing the conflict has achieved considerable success in recent years. Foundations should be laid for convincing the US to support a long-term conflict-management strategy.

Again, the conflict cannot truly be ended, and attempts to “resolve” it result only in frustration and damage. A more modest but far more useful goal should be set – managing this protracted and intractable conflict while limiting suffering on both sides. Wise use of carrot-and-stick mechanisms might facilitate a relatively comfortable life for all people living between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River.

It is worth noting that the Palestinian question no longer heads the international agenda, and the urgency of “solving” it has somewhat subsided. This allows, perhaps, time for a new generation of Palestinian leaders to emerge, with a more practical outlook. Responsible Arab state actors can lend a hand in moderating extremist trends in Palestinian society.

Conflict management is not a cop-out. It is a cautious strategy that succumbs neither to demagogic demands for military victory nor to the impatience of those who advocate dangerous unilateral withdrawals.

The guaranteed failure of the “deal of the century” is an opportunity for Israel to open American eyes to the harsh and complicated reality in our region, and lead Washington into supporting conflict-management. Israel should be released from the burden of an old “two-state solution” formula that can provide no relief.

The writer is president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (jiss.org.il) and a fellow at the Middle East Forum.

 3a)

Know Comment: Fear not the Trump plan

By DAVID M. WEINBERG
Jared Kushner set off a frenzy this week by telling Sky News Arabia in Abu Dhabi that the “Trump Peace Plan” would address Israel’s borders and seek a united Palestinian government.

This has fueled Israeli election battles on the right of the political spectrum. The New Right’s Naftali Bennett warns that the plan of US President Donald Trump is bringing back the “two-state solution” with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s assent, and that “Netanyahu will divide Jerusalem.” (This is an ironic riff on Netanyahu’s 1996 allegation that “Shimon Peres will divide Jerusalem.”)
It may be true that a Bibi-Bennett government will be less susceptible to international pressures on the Palestinian issue than a Bibi-Gantz (or a Gantz-Likud) government, but either way I doubt there is much to be worried about.
It is inconceivable that the Trump plan will parrot the stale Clinton/Obama parameters of yesteryear or force any “peace paradigm” on Israel. Not when Iran is on an imperial march and the Palestinians are mired neck-deep in denial, rejectionism, terrorism and corruption.  
Sunni Arab leaders themselves said at the Warsaw summit last week that the Palestinian problem can’t be solved without first crushing Iran’s hegemonic ambitions. And they sought cooperation with Israel – even though no peace with the Palestinians is on the horizon.  

Also in Warsaw, Kushner said that the American team understands that Israel is much less able to take risks today than it was 20 years ago – because of the disintegration of the Arab state system, Palestinian tremulousness and Iran’s dogged quest for regional domination bolstered by nuclear weapons. He acknowledged that the American plan must be relevant for the current Mideast context.

Kushner, Jason Greenblatt and David Friedman surely know that the real challenge in Palestinian-Israeli affairs is not the tabling of hackneyed formulas for “resolving issues in dispute” as if this was a real estate transaction, but rather how to unleash long-term dynamics in identity narratives that will narrow the gaps and regenerate belief in the possibility of peace.
After all, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is a clash of identities, not just issues. And the Palestinians seem to have no identity other than as a community in conflict with Israel. In fact, the Palestinian Authority doesn’t relate to the diplomatic process as a peace process, but as a decolonization process where the colonizer and victimizer (Israel) is to be held responsible for his crimes. 

This explains why the PA spends most of its time seeking to criminalize Israel in international forums and denying the very fact of Jewish history in Jerusalem.
Alas, there is no evidence whatsoever that Palestinians are cultivating coexistence with Israel as an authentic identity alternative. Just the opposite: The Arafat-Abbas policy has been to reject most forms of engagement with Israel, even when it comes to improving life for Palestinians.
ISRAEL’S NARRATIVE is different, of course. For Israelis, this is not a conflict about occupation, because Jews are not occupiers in Judea but rather an indigenous people in their ancient homeland. And while many Israelis support the principle of territorial compromise (through a two-state or other solution), this is practically irrelevant, because Palestinian hostility to Israel’s very existence is so ingrained.
Surely, the Trump team realizes this.
For two years, the American team has been taking a “fresh look” at what is safe, wise, fair and realistic in today’s Israeli-Palestinian reality – a praiseworthy endeavor. This effort must inevitably lead them to the additional realization that Israel’s “occupation” of the Palestinians essentially ended two decades ago when Israel vacated the West Bank’s Palestinian-populated areas (the Oslo Accords’ areas A and B) and gave control to the PA.
This effectuated Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin’s vision of ending Israel’s control of Palestinian daily life without creating a full-fledged Palestinian state. (Contrary to popular perception, Oslo did not commit Israel to full-fledged Palestinian statehood, and Rabin was unalterably opposed to it).
This, and Israel’s full withdrawal from Gaza, should have ended the debate about the supposed contradiction between Israel’s Jewish and democratic character, since Gaza and areas A and B have become basically-permanent entities independent of Israel.
Other realties surely understood by Kushner, Greenblatt and Friedman are that Israel must not make unilateral concessions in a situation where the Palestinians refuse to participate in the diplomatic process and show no capacity for compromise. And Israel will never accept proposals that involve “internationalization” of the conflict (such as reliance on foreign forces in securing Israel’s borders) or a physical re-division of Jerusalem.
ON THE SAFE ASSUMPTION that the Trump team understands all of this, one must ask what the purposes of its Middle East plan could possibly be. Surely the Americans understand that a swift peace deal is unachievable.
More likely is that the Trump plan is meant to legitimate new ideas; to “move the markers” or “shift the goalposts” on the parameters for an aspirational Israeli-Palestinian peace accord somewhere off in the distant future.
For example, I hope and believe that the plan will entrench the idea that Israel’s presence in Jerusalem and Judea is indigenous and legitimate, not illegal. In this conflict, there is historical justice owed to the Jewish people, not just to the Palestinian people!
Furthermore, the plan should broach Palestinian refugee resettlement in countries of the region; a third rail issue that must be confronted courageously and expeditiously if there is to be any hope for a better future.

The plan also may be designed on a modular approach, with parts that could work now, such as a broad framework for Arab regional investment in Palestinian-Israeli joint projects – and to do so in way that provides cover for Arab states to work more closely with Israel on a range of issues.
The plan might also set-out a pathway for renewing Palestinian leadership ranks with individuals hard-wired for peaceful compromise, not unending warfare.
In short, the benchmark for judging the plan could be nothing more or less than the dynamics of moving things forward.
Any movement away from antiquated formulas, obsolete paradigms, and hoary solutions – most of which have been based on maximalist Palestinian demands deemed “holy” by the so-called international community – would be a huge achievement. (Trump likes “huge.”)  
Alas, much of the global diplomatic community and the Israeli left wing scoff at the notion that anything other than the “Clinton parameters” can serve as the basis for an Israeli-Palestinian deal. Consequently, the tabling of Trump’s parameters may boomerang negatively, at least for a while, with the Palestinians and Europeans rejecting Trump’s plan as an aberration and instead doubling down on the Clinton parameters.

Israel can’t let this happen. It mustn’t miss the opportunity to end 25 years of deadlock and suffering wrought by timeworn phantasmas.
Consequently, Israel should approach the tabling of a Trump peace initiative with an open mind, offering it diplomatic space to percolate, and time to develop momentum. Jerusalem can and should welcome the plan as a useful platform for moving ahead, and then carefully consider its components.
Israel should be ready to say: “Yes, but...”
The writer is vice president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, jiss.org.il. His personal site isdavidmweinberg.com.
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