Saturday, July 16, 2016

State Department A Day Late As Usual.Call Me Nuts.

The idiots in our State Department and most
particularly the biggest of them all Sec. Kerry.
The Department was totally caught with its pants
down regarding the Turkish coup.
A liberal friend and fellow memo reader asked me whether I really want to see anarchy:

"Dick:You really believe we should have a military overthrow/coup in the United States? "

My response: "Not really but the sooner we rid ourselves of Obama and return to a more Constitutional government, get rid of PC thinking and dictates, and cool off wedge issues and return to logic and sanity the better we will be.  Don't always take me literally.  I even allow liberals some latitude.  Me"
What I know about the future of The Middle East you can put in your eye and still see 20-20 but I am concerned that eventually Turkey (Sunni) and Iran (Shia) will, some day, fight it out for dominance and what that means for ISIS and Russia, as well as America, Israel, Jordan and The Saudis,  is anyone's guess.

The failed coup in Turkey does not bode well for the democratization of the region. Erdogan has all the attributes of a fascist, a Muslim fundamentalist and, as a key member of NATO, Turkey will prove thoroughly and increasingly unreliable thus weakening an already feckless organization - a paper tiger.

Call me nuts if you will.
The consequence of liberalism, the connection between the break up of the black family and war on police. (See 1 below.)
Oh to be old again:

The world falls apart and the market rises. Why? (See 2 below.)

Though I have been wrong, totally wrong, on the market's direction the stocks I was willing to buy have done reasonably well: T, MRK, CSCO, ABV, OPK(highly speculative) BAC and KMI.  KKR has faltered a bit as well as BX.

Goldman says the domestic economy is showing positive signs.  The market obviously has momentum and plenty of sideline cash wants to participate but I remain circumspect.
I happened to listen to Trump and Pence's speech today.  I also caught the news about the increased demonizing of Pence by Hillary  and her lieutenants.

I sent Trump a letter urging him to call attention to the fact that Hillary had a ton of money, would outspend him and to suggest that she was of the mind she could buy The White House.  Having money will buy plenty of attack ads but, this time around, I believe it could also become more of a negative and that is why I wrote Trump what I did.  I cannot say he took my suggestion but he did allude to the fact that she has a lot of money.

Secondly, I believe the sharp attacks on Pence by Hillary's "goon squad" will not work  because Pence is not the ogre they would have you believe he is simply because he is conservative, and religious. He did a great job, from an economic standpoint, while governor. The record speaks for itself and thus Hillary chose to attack him personally not his accomplishments.

I think personal attacks, that are obviously off the mark, will flare back and hurt the attacker. Hillary is a very mean spirited person and will find it hard not to be nasty and those who are top advisors in her campaign also have a tendency to be attack dogs.

Hillary remains vulnerable as the Middle East falls apart, Islamic terrorism continues to kill and she has pledged to run on her record of pitiful accomplishments and continues embracing more of Obama's failed social policies.

If Trump can stay on message and do well in the debates I would not rule him out as our next president.

Click here: Arlington Heights student impersonates presidential candidates, goes viral - Chicago Tribune
1)We Have a ‘War on Cops’ because of the War on the Family
By Trevor Grant Thomas

Just so we’re clear, here’s the left’s narrative on the police in America: there’s widespread and institutionalized racism inside America’s law enforcement agencies, and black Americans are especially targeted. This racism has led to the deaths of a disproportionate number of innocent black Americans. In order to stop this heinous activity, we need more gun control legislation, more wealth redistribution, more job and education programs, and thus Americans need to elect more Democrats.

mountains of evidence that prove beyond any reasonable doubt that there is no widespread special targeting of blacks by U.S. law enforcement. In addition to the crime statistics, consider: of the 50 largest cities in the U.S., 30 percent have a black police chief. Of the 50 largest sheriff’s departments in the U.S., 12 percent were led by black Americans. (Remember, blacks are about 13 percent of the U.S. population, and sheriffs are usually elected.)

Barack Obama, the U.S. president and commander-in-chief of the U.S. military -- the largest, most powerful military in the world -- is a black man. The U.S. attorney general -- the chief law enforcement officer and chief lawyer of the U.S. government -- Loretta Lynch, is a black woman. The previous U.S. attorney general, Eric Holder, is a black man. No doubt there are racists within U.S. law enforcement -- as there are in almost any agency, institution, or organization in America -- however, there is no way a nation achieves the racial diversity detailed above if widespread, institutionalized racism exists.

In spite of this information, whenever the national conversation turns to confrontations between white cops and black suspects, the narrative at the beginning of this piece -- the narrative of Black Lives Matter -- dominates the mainstream media. Remember, the Black Lives Matter movement gained national attention because of a lie. Black Lives Matter was founded after the acquittal of George Zimmerman in the killing of Trayvon Martin. However, the movement became known nationally after the death of Michael Brown at the hands of police officer Darren Wilson in Ferguson, Missouri.

After Brown’s death, the supposed gesture and words of surrender by Brown -- “Hands Up, Don’t Shoot!” -- became a frequent rallying cry for those protesting Brown’s death. However, after a U.S. Department of Justice investigation, it was concluded that Brown didn’t have his hands up and didn’t cry “Don’t shoot” when Officer Wilson shot him. Even liberal apologist Jonathan Capehart had to admit that, “‘Hands up, don’t shoot’ was built on a lie.” Nevertheless, as we see today (scroll about one-third the way down), the narrative continues.

One of the reasons the deceptive liberal narrative about black lives is so doggedly defended and regularly repeated is that the truth about the very real suffering in the American black community runs counter to modern liberal dogma. The biggest reason for the rampant lawlessness and poverty that is so prevalent in the black community is the breakdown of the family.

It has been widely reported for years now that the out-of-wedlock birth rate among American blacks is over 70 percent. Almost always, mothers are left to raise their children alone. In U.S. cities, where the violence and poverty among U.S. blacks is most pronounced, the out-of-wedlock birth rate is even worse. For example, in Chicago about 80 percent of black children are born to single mothers. Today, only 17 percent of American black teenagers reach age 17 in a family with their biological parents married to each other. In no state in the U.S does black family intactness exceed 30 percent.

Social science is finally revealing what sound morality and good common sense always told us: Children of single mothers do worse in almost every metric measured: school achievement, poverty, crime, emotional well-being, drug use, delinquency, violent behavior, and so on. These negative outcomes are even worse for black children born to single mothers. Millions of black youths -- because of the frequent absence of fathers -- are growing up poorly disciplined, poorly educated, and poorly churched.

Thus, gangs and crime have become far too common in the black communities of America. Sadly, these broken and vulnerable black families typically live in the most dangerous parts of our nation. From the beginning of the Iraq war in 2003, until the U.S. troop withdrawal in 2011, there were 4,485 U.S. casualties. The city of Chicago alone had 4,265 murders during the same time period. Perhaps the most shocking statistic of all when it comes to black Americans and violence is that black men in the U.S. are half as likely to die if they are in prison than if they are not.

However, easily the most dangerous place for a black child in America is the womb. This is horrifically sad when one considers that a mother’s womb should be one of the safest places in the universe. Since the Roe vs. Wade ruling in 1973, abortion has killed more black Americans than crime, accidents, cancer, heart disease, or AIDS. Since 1973, abortion has taken the life of more black Americans than any other single cause of death. Again, in U.S. cities, these numbers are even more staggering. In New York City, in 2012, more black children were aborted than were born.As Mother Teresa warned us, “the greatest destroyer of peace today is abortion, because it is a war against the child, a direct killing of the innocent child, murder by the mother herself. And if we accept that a mother can kill even her own child, how can we tell other people not to kill one another?” Thus, we should not be surprised that, where there is rampant abortion, there is also rampant violence. In spite of all of this, Black Lives Matter and their liberal apologists refuse to stand up for black children in the womb.As I have often said, after our relationship with our Creator, the most important relationship in the universe is the relationship between a husband and his wife. Any other type of union is a perversion of one of the oldest truths in the history of humanity. Such a conclusion is in direct opposition to the pro-homosexual, pro-abortion, pro-big-government -- which could all be summed up as the anti-family -- agenda of today’s American left. For decades now, modern American liberals have waged war on the family. They have lied about sex and sexuality, about the importance of mothers and fathers, about marriage, and about life in the womb. The rotten fruit of these lies is widespread death and destruction. It is the politics, policies, and practices of liberalism that have robbed America’s black communities of peace and prosperity and turned our police officers into targets.
2) 3 Reasons the Stock Market Is Rising Even As the World Feels Like It's Falling Apart

Cheap money helps, but it’s not just about the Fed.

It’s been three weeks since British voters shocked the world and voted to leave the EU. After a two-day Brexit freakout, the stock market pretty much returned to business as usual—and beyond. The S&P 500 hit record highs four straight days this week, its longest streak since November 2014, before retreating slightly on Friday.
Even the gruesome news from Nice, France—where 84 people were killed and more than 200 injured when a truck rammed into a crowded festival—seemed to have little impact on the financial markets Friday. Indeed, Herbalife’s  HLF 9.92%  settlement with the FTC and Wells Fargo’s  WFC -2.51%  lackluster results were more top of mind for U.S. traders. (Update: Reports of a coup attempt in Turkey broke shortly after the market closed on Friday;S&P 500 e-mini futures slipped initially after-hours trading in reaction before recouping most of the lost ground.)
Here are three reasons why the market has surged, even though the world seems to be coming apart at the seams:
  • Money Is Cheap: Not everything comes down to the Fed, but easy money promotes speculation. If traders can borrow for (almost) nothing, they’re more willing take a flyer on some high-beta stocks like Ocean Power Technologies  OPTT 75.26%  that might provide a huge payoff. Add that easy money to quantitative easing programs by global central banks and you get a steep drop in bond yields. That, in turn, makes stocks look relatively attractive to institutional investors. Finally, access to cheap capital allows corporations to borrow money to buy back stock, which reduces the supply of stock available and improves earnings per share, albeit artificially. After companies bought back about $161.4 billion of stock in the first quarter, outstanding shares in the S&P 500 are on track for the first yearly decline since 2011, the WSJ reports, citing data from S&P Dow Jones Indices.

  • People are Emotional, Markets are Not: I don’t believe markets are particularly rational or efficient, but the impact of terrorism on financial markets has steadily waned in the years since the Sept. 11 attacks on New York City. It may be callous to say, but we’ve all become a bit numbed to terror attacks after London (2005)…Spain (2014)…Paris (2015)…Brussels (2016).

  • The World Isn’t Ending: While there’s plenty to worry about—including global terrorism, uncertainty over what Brexit really means, anxiety over how U.S. election plays out, and much more—the global economy is expanding, albeit slowly, and the U.S. looks pretty good relative to other developed economies. (Insert “best looking horse in the glue factory” joke here.) And despite legitimate concerns about anti-globalization forces being on the rise here and abroad, the volume of global trade is expected to rise 2.6% this year after climbing 2.8% in 2015.

An old Wall Street saying also helps explain why stocks have fared well despite all the negative headlines: The market climbs a wall of worry.
You should be more worried about the stock market when “everyone” is bullish and the conventional wisdom says buying stocks (or real estate or any other asset) is a “no brainer.” That is certainly not the case today: UBS says wealthy investors are holding on to record levels of cash and 84% believe the election will have a significant impact on their financial health, Reuters reports.
Other sentiment indicators tell a similar tale: The American Association of Individual Investors Sentiment Survey has been above 30% bullish in consecutive weeks only two times since November.
Other signs of worry include gold’s more than 25% increase in 2016, and investors’ willingness to buy bonds with negative rates. Germany sold 10-year bunds at negative rates for the first time ever this week and there is now about $13 trillion of global debt with negative yields, the WSJ reports, citing data from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. That’s up from $11 trillion before the Brexit vote.
Having argued that it’s too soon to say the Brexit risks have passed, I’m not trying to be a pollyanna about the potential downside of owning stocks here.
Notably, the so-called fear indicator, the VIX, has fallen over 50% from its peak in late June and is trading at levels below 13, suggesting complacency among options traders. Furthermore, ETF funds tracking major U.S. stock indexes attracted $11.5 billion over the five days through Thursday, the most in 10 months, according to Bloomberg. The pre-teen VIX and heavy inflows into equity ETFs suggest that short-term optimism has risen almost as quickly as the S&P 500, which is up 8% since its post-Brexit-vote low. In other words, don’t be surprised if the market takes a short-term respite from its recent rally.
That said, it does seem like it’s going to take a lot more than a few scary headlines to knock the market down, at least for very long.

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