Monday, January 28, 2019

Check It Out - No Free Lunch. Newt's Thinking. Another Ross Rant. Sowell Reflects






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Check it out….  This might blow your mind. You can click onto any state (except Hawaii) and see the effect that illegals are having on that state. It is a "uge" problem that needs to be resolved. Hang on to this and pass it on to your Senator or House Rep.

No wonder the coffers are bare and every governor wants to raise taxes. CT is basically flat broke.

Check-out the numbers in California. We’ve known for a some time many Illegals don’t pay taxes, because they work for cash, yet they get a lot of government freebies like food stamps, phones, school, medical, utilities, rent, etc.

We appear to be taking care of illegals rather than American citizens in actual need of assistance.

State by state detailed infographics on how much illegals burden you and your state: Just click on the state you want to see.
Wyoming
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Breaking the log jam employed by Democrats to wreck Trump's ability to form a fully staffed government etc. (See 1 below.)
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New York's Cuomo warms to having more cold baby corpses. New York reveals its blood lust for baby killing
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Apparently Mueller has no one else to arrest that were indicted for things that seem to have nothing to do with why he was hired.

Mueller investigation near completion, acting AG Whitaker says
NBC News

Special counsel Robert Mueller has nearly finished his nearly two-year investigation of collusion and Russian interference in the 2016 election, the acting attorney general said Friday. Read the full story
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I am willing to put my money on Newt. When I lived in Atlanta,I was close to him, got to know him and what made him tick. He is a solid, cold analytical thinker. He also is full of himself. (See 2 below.)
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Another Rant. (See 3 below.)
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 Tom Sowell looks back. (See 4 below.)
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Dick
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1)  Busting the Nominations Dam

The GOP is poised to change Senate rules to speed up confirmation votes.

By  The Editorial Board

Halfway into President Trump’s four-year term, Democrats continue to do everything they can to block him from assembling a government. Senate Republicans are considering a rule change to break this dam of Democratic obstruction on nominees, and please do.

A group of Senators led by James Lankford of Oklahoma have been working to change the “cloture” process that triggers 30 hours of debate on a nominee. In the past the rule didn’t matter much because Members invoked it only on the most important nominees such as Supreme Court Justices. Yet Democrats have triggered cloture votes 128 times over the past two years. They want to hijack scarce Senate floor time and obstruct the Trump agenda.


The GOP is pondering whether to change the rules to limit debate to two hours on nominees such as circuit-court judges, and perhaps eight for executive nominees. The 30-hour standard would remain in place for Supreme Court justices and cabinet officers. Such a change would dramatically pick up the pace of filling out the government. But Senators would still have weeks for vetting and public debate, including confirmation hearings in committee.

Republicans would prefer to change the rules through the normal committee and floor process, which requires Democratic votes. Republicans agreed to the eight-hour debate on the floor in 2013 for Barack Obama’s nominees when Democrats controlled the Senate. But Democrats have refused a similar accommodation under Mr. Trump.

One reason for Democrats to vote with Republicans is this: Do they want a GOP Senate returning the favor on all of President Kamala Harris’s nominees in 2021? Without a rule change, there’s no doubt Republicans would follow the obstruction precedent that Democrats are setting under Mr. Trump.

Today’s Democrats may simply be too bloody-minded, which would leave two GOP options. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell can force the Senate to work every day, seven days a week, until Democratic leader Chuck Schumer relents. Nothing focuses the senatorial mind like missing vacations or foreign junkets.

The second option is to bust the filibuster and pass the rule change with GOP votes. The latter is not unprecedented. Democrat Harry Reid in the Obama years busted the filibuster for judicial nominations in a partisan vote. Whatever it does, the GOP should move quickly before another six months of obstruction render the move pointless.
By then nominees won’t have much time to be effective at their agencies before another election arrives. These include powerful positions like Mark Calabria’s nomination to the Federal Housing Finance Agency. The Defense Department needs an under secretary for readiness, which is important for the Trump Administration’s goal of rebuilding the military.
Both parties should be warned that turning the Senate into a rubber room is reducing the quality of nominees. These nominees often have to quit their jobs while they await confirmation, and most Americans can’t easily forgo income for six, 10 or 18 months.
The ultra-wealthy often aren’t interested in government jobs because Senators scrutinize their every business transaction or financial holding in public. The breakdown of traditional Senate advice and consent is causing talented Americans on the right and left to conclude that public service isn’t worth it
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2)  Dick:

As you listen to the liberal media, the Never Trumpers and the left-wing Trump haters chatter on about President Trump’s current situation, remember these two numbers — 35 and 49.
The first number was President Ronald Reagan’s approval in January 1983.
The second number was the number of states Reagan carried 22 months later.
I am not predicting President Trump will carry 49 states. This is a different environment, and the tribalism that divides the country is deeper than it was 36 years ago.
However, in contrast to the enthusiastic doomsayers on television, I am willing to predict President Trump will recover. Also, he is much more likely to be re-elected than any of his opponents at The New York TimesThe Washington Post, or the liberal networks currently believe.
President Trump’s resilience, despite two straight years of the most negative media coverage of any President since Lincoln (at least 90 percent negative according to studies by the Media Research Center that analyzed nightly broadcasts) is a sign that he has a devoted base that will stick with him. The most recent unemployment applications are the lowest since November 1969 (when there were a lot fewer Americans at work). There are powerful initiatives underway to continue to increase American jobs and economic growth.
The Left will do for Trump what it did for President Reagan and Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher and what it is currently doing for Prime Minister Theresa May (who is surviving because the alternative is so terrible). A few more proposals for 70 percent tax rates, sanctuary states, tax paid health care for everyone including illegal immigrants, open borders, anti-Semitism, and anti-Israeli hostility and the Democrats will begin driving away everyone but the hard left. Governor Gavin Newsom’s wildly left-wing ideas are going to be a striking contrast to President Trump’s comparatively mainstream views (Newsom was mayor of San Francisco and is carrying its leftist ideology to the entire state). Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez may set a new standard for willful ignorance by a non-Hollywood personality. There is a point where smiling while saying things that are factually false simply doesn’t sustain a national movement.
The energy in the Democratic Party is entirely on the left, and as Hillary Clinton discovered, the nominating process is going to drive the Democratic candidates to get as nutty as necessary to please the new generation of radical bigots.
The media’s new enthusiasm for third-party billionaires (Starbucks anyone?) is a big help to Trump’s re-election. Any third-party candidate will divide the anti-Trump vote and have no effect on the pro-Trump vote. The White House should encourage every would-be third-party leader. The more the merrier from the Trump perspective.
The Never Trump Republicans will get a lot of media and will be socially celebrated by the Washington, New York, and Hollywood crowds. They will do Sunday shows, be invited to speak at establishment events, and have paid staff egging them on (so they can continue to get paid). The Never Trump candidates will also be crushed by President Trump in Republican primaries.
Trump, like Reagan, learns and thinks a lot more than his detractors acknowledge.
He is accomplishing far more around the world than anyone thought possible (note the head of NATO just said Trump had gotten the alliance to add $100 billion toward defense and commended Trump’s tactics to contain Russia). The Chinese are losing the trade fight, and they know it. NAFTA has been renegotiated. Kim Jong Un has marginally changed his behavior in the right direction. Trump has a remarkable number of personal relations with heads of government and communicates with them by telephone as often as any president in history.
Mueller and the anti-Trump Deep State will continue to be annoying, and their news media manipulation will keep the Left enthralled. Need to lock an American up in isolation for 23 hours a day while awaiting trial? That is what Mueller has done to Paul Manafort. Need to ensure TV coverage of a fully armed dawn FBI raid? Just invite CNN along as Mueller did last week at Roger Stone’s house. Mueller will continue to use armed force in the middle of the night against non-violent Americans who have indicated they would cooperate.
And yet, as Andy McCarthy wrote after the Stone indictments, none of this proves anything about Trump and Russia which was the original story.
In fact, President Trump has been much tougher on Russia than President Obama ever dreamed of being. From sanctions to the military buildup of NATO, to rebuilding missile defenses and forward positioning in the Balkans, to offensive weapons for Ukraine, the President has been tougher not softer. Yet, the Left’s innuendos and attacks continue to paint Trump, as The New York Times hysterically put it, as a potential Russian agent.
The Mueller investigation will eventually be put in perspective and will lead to serious reforms to limit the threat of an out-of-control deep state in the Justice Department.
The American people will gradually realize that this whole effort has been a political hoax to smear the President, which has weakened the country and undermined the rule of law.
The hard Left will go into the summer of 2020 chanting hatred and believing everything bad about Trump. They will represent about 40 percent of the country. The hardcore Trump supporters will go into the summer of 2020 amazed at how much their leader has achieved despite unending news media, Democratic hostility, and splits in the GOP. They will make up 45 percent of the country.
The 15 percent who will have been repelled by the Left’s craziness and turned off by President Trump’s style will enter the summer of 2020 wishing they had a better choice. In the end, they will have to gamble on the least dangerous and least bad future. When that happened in 2016, they broke overwhelmingly for Trump over Clinton, and the late deciders made him president.
There will be three big things helping Trump in 2020:
1. The Trump Administration’s accomplishments will be real (a future column will outline the wave of breakthroughs in our lives that will start being felt in the next 18 months).
2. The hysteria and dishonesty of the investigations and their irrelevancy in terms of Trump as president will be obvious, and only the Left will pay them any attention.
3. Breakthroughs like criminal justice reform, a cure for sickle cell disease, better education through parental choice, the best African American employment rate in history, and the like will lead to Republican breakthroughs with minorities (as happened surprisingly in both Florida and Georgia against Democratic African American candidates for Governor – in both states the margin of victory was African Americans voting Republican).
Over the next few weeks, as you listen to the anti-Trumpers relish the winter of discontent and pronounce the end of the Trump presidency, just remember — they were wrong in 2015 when they said he couldn’t be a serious candidate; they were wrong in the spring of 2016 when they said he couldn’t win the GOP nomination; they were wrong in 2018 when they said he should withdraw Judge Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination.
Why should you believe them now?
Your Friend,
Newt
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3)The December panic is over, and now the market is in recovery, although we are still almost 10% off the October high of 2924. While the black swans continue to circle, the Fed has finally decided to listen to the market and likely reduce, and maybe suspend, the unwind of their balance sheet. This matters more than rates. By taking $50 billion a month, $600 billion a year, out of money in circulation, they are essentially cramming down liquidity and negatively impacting the economy as much as a tick up in rates would. Reducing money in circulation you reduce cash available for investment. If they do suspend the wind down and they suspend rate increases for most or all of 2019, as I think will happen, then there is a very good chance the stock market will continue to rise as very good earnings appear over the next few weeks. Note that applications for unemployment are at a 50 year low, and actually, on a percent of the working population they are probably at a historic low. This in spite of the shutdown, and gloom and doom predictions of a recession looming, tariffs, and all the political and economic uncertainty in the EU and China. Hiring is still strong, capital investment is still good. GDP will likely be around 3% for Q4, and the past year. GDP under Obama was 1.6% in 2016 and only 1.8% in Q1 2017 before Trump could make an impact. The economy was slowing going into 2017. Recall, 3% is the number the administration predicted back in early 2017, and the liberals, the press and Obama said was not possible. Remember when over a year ago pundits in Wall St were saying the economic boom and bull market could not last this long. They were wrong. There is nothing happening in the US economy right now which is likely to kill the growth story during 2019, now that the shutdown is at least on pause.  M2 -money supply, is increasing again at a rate greater than GDP, which usually means the extra cash is used to buy assets. M2 for much of 2018 was slower than GDP growth. All major central banks are adding liquidity, or are about to, and all have stopped raising rates. All good for stocks. After the last three corrections, stocks rebounded by an average of 24%. When corrections happen, central banks add money supply, and lower PE ratios make buying stocks much more attractive. 
China perspective: Consumer disposable income has risen 10% a year for 6 years. However household debt has risen 20% a year in the same period, and 26% in 2018. 61% live in fairly new homes, and have taken on mortgage debt to pay for it. This is new for China. The government is trying to maintain home prices which have risen a lot, because with a slower economy, house prices might decline and that would send bad messages to consumers and investors who speculated on condos. With layoffs now happening, and economic strain, there could possibly be situation similar to what we had in home mortgages in 2007-08. Not a crash like here, but a serious slowdown in spending. Consumers are already nervous, and so not spending as much. 
It is hard to understand why in recent polls over 50% of people in the US do not think the economy is doing great, or even good. With record low unemployment, family income rising for the first time in ten years, record low layoffs, and very low inflation, what is it they think is good? Fact- 2016 GDP was the lowest in 7 years and Q1 2017 was still slow. It was not until Q2 2017 that the GDP growth began to take off. Maybe all the talk of income inequality and proposals by the Dems to give them freebies, they think it should be much better. They simply have no clue, and the more there is talk by the left of a $15 minimum wage and taxes on the rich, and redistribution of wealth, there is a segment of the population who believes they should be doing even better for no more effort on their part. Just so you know, $15 was just a number out of the air by the service workers union which was considering what was reasonable to demand. The union thought $20 was too high and $12 too low so they literally just picked $15 as a nice sounding number. It has no objective nor data driven basis at all.
Now we get the far left competing for who can come up with the more confiscatory tax policy, which will get promoted by the press and become something ordinary dopes consider to be “fair”. If the Dems were to get full control in 2020, hide your income and your balance sheet. Just because you busted your hump and sacrificed all your life to gain whatever degree of net worth, small or large, is no reason to think you have any right to retain it. The left wants to give it to the people who did not earn it, just because they deserve it and you do not, you greedy white male. When Dems say the rich need to pay their “fair share”, ignoring that the top 10% pay nearly 80% and the bottom 50% pay zero, it is like they live in a different country. Most rich and wealthy people today earned it themselves. They did not inherit it. Jeff Bezos started Amazon in his garage selling books. He earned every penny of his billions.
If you think the free speech issue is only on campus, the NYC Council passed a new law that fines private psychologists if they try to work with a patient who voluntarily came to see them, to help them get past thinking being gay. Consider that one. The government thinks it has a right to go into the private discussions between a therapist and patient, and dictate what is politically acceptable discussion. Pretty scary. There is a lawsuit now to stop this. 
We are now seeing what I have been warning about. The brainwashed kids are graduating from indoctrination in college, and now are gaining places in politics and business, and these policies fit right in with what they were taught in college. The kid from Queens being the prime example. It is going to get much worse as more graduate. 20% think socialism works well, and is better than capitalism. They forget, it is capitalism that gave them the opportunity for college and a good paying job, and the time and ability to mouth off. The left is all excited that Trump backed down for the moment. The press says he is the loser vs Pelosi. Reality is, America lost. The Dems felt it more important to stop Trump than to do what they all voted to do, and gave speeches saying was needed, for the past 30 years, and stop the flood of illegals and drugs and crime. They just passed the open the government bill with $200 million to modernize existing border walls at the same time they attack them. It means 3 foot walls are being rebuilt to be 30 feet high, but that is “not immoral”. What a sad state we are now in. There is no question as far as border patrol is concerned that we desperately need a barrier in certain locations. Pelosi and the Dems know this, but they do not care. Stopping Trump is their priority. There will now be many more of these confrontations as we get to 2020. Republicans misplayed their hand on this when they stopped the immigration bill a year ago, and Trump did not understand the politics of it, and played it all wrong when he said he would take the blame, but that does not excuse Pelosi from harming US  security just to pander to the left so she could be speaker.
Here is my take. McConnell and Manchin will be the ones to resolve this fiasco. Many believe Trump has no chance to prevail in court if he declares an emergency. I am not a lawyer, but I am not so sure. Obama took $1.8 billion cash and sent it to Iran with zero authorization from anyone. Trump was told by his lawyers that to win in court on declaring a national emergency, he has to look like he tried everything else, and was not arbitrary and capricious, not political, and that a true emergency exists. (The new caravan has 12,000). He has to have given Congress every chance to appropriate the funds. Congress needs to look arbitrary and capricious and acting only for political purposes, which is the case. Border patrol has to opine there is a true emergency, humanitarian crisis, and urgent need for the barrier and various other funds which Trump has offered. The border patrol were the ones who decided they need $5.7 billion, not Trump, and they need the other pieces that Trump offered for drug detection, 1700 more agents, humanitarian aid etc. plus DACCA. It is likely the bipartisan group will approve all those things other than the barrier. It will not be a  complete package without the barrier. The court should not be the one to decide who wins a congressional negotiation standoff based on politics, but they need to allow the president to act as he is authorized to do to protect the country. The issue is -does the president have the power to declare a national emergency and use existing available funds from other budgets like defense to deal with it. There is a law that says the army can be used to build barriers and other tasks on the border to protect the nation, so there may be a legal use of those funds. There have been billions appropriated for border walls by Congress in the recent past, (there is a wall being built right now), so the Dems cannot say to the court that there is no precedent, and it is immoral. They voted for it in the recent past and again last week. Multiple national emergencies have been declared by every president in modern times. It is a well established precedent. If border patrol declares a crisis and emergency , and they make a formal request, and if they were the ones who set the budget, and they say the barrier is essential to national security, it will be hard for the courts to stop Trump once it gets past the ninth circuit. Who are the judges to override the experts. I believe he will, under these conditions, possibly be able to get the Supremes to take it on under an emergency review, and get it approved a lot more quickly than most think. He is empowered under the constitution and other laws to do it, and has many precedents. With a new 12,000 person caravan on the way, the border is being overwhelmed, the Supreme court should see this is a real emergency situation. There is also a question of standing. It seems an impossible position to take that the plaintiff is an illegal alien in this matter. Who is the plaintiff? Pelosi?? Hopefully Roberts will not duck this like he did on DACCA.
The consequences of the shutdown and Pelosi are bad. Now Putin, Kim, Xi, Iran will believe  they just have to wait him out and he will be gone, and then they will have a left wing president who they can roll the way they rolled Obama. Up to now Trump was the winner and tough. Now he lost to the left. New NAFTA will very likely not be passed. The consequences to the country and the world are very bad if Pelosi allows the far left to dictate her positions, like happened on the wall
Despite the latest false news reports re how Trump has angered NATO by demanding they pay their fair share, and he was going to order leaving NATO, the secretary general of NATO, a Norwegian, on  Sunday, stated that Trump had made a very positive difference, and woken up the Europeans to rebuild NATO to deter Russian aggression, and now they are all materially increasing military spending by a total of $100 billion. He not only gives full credit to Trump, but he said Trump has recently committed to stay in and rebuild NATO. He credits Trump for making the very positive difference. Basically he blew away all the negative news stories about Trump and NATO.
We now see anti-Semitism rising on campus, and now in Congress. We have two Muslim members who now espouse anti-Israel propaganda, and anti- Semitic comments, but nobody in Dem leadership nor the mainstream media says much about it. However, if a white member says anything that is misconstrued as even slightly racist, even if it is not, he is then beaten to a pulp in the press and online. What is really upsetting is one of these blatantly anti-Israel Muslims was appointed to the foreign affairs committee. That is as bad as the appointment of the kid from Queens being appointed to the banking and finance committee. Palestinians who now are admitted under diversity to colleges, have been pushing BDS and in some schools, and physical intimidation of Jewish students. There is an anti-Semitism problem on many campuses using the Israel Palestine issues as the excuse. And recently there was an op ed in the NYT which attacked Israel, and made it sound like the Palestinians are the heroes and Israel and Jews the oppressors. The Times published this blatantly anti-Semitic piece with no thought or comment. It is happening again, and it is from the left, which is supposed to be protector of civil rights. One of the Muslim congresswomen tried to get the judge in an ISIS terror case to reduce the sentences of men from her area who were caught signing up to join to fight with ISIS. One keeps a map in her capitol hill office showing Israel having been eliminated. Welcome to diversity, and the mainstream media ignoring these things.
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4) Lessons From the Past

Thomas Sowell

By Thomas Sowell





Seventy-one years ago this month — in January 1948 — a black, 17-year-old high school dropout left home. The last grade he had completed was the 9th grade. He had no skills, little experience, and not a lot of maturity. Yet he was able to find jobs to support himself, to a far greater extent than someone similar can find jobs today.
I know because I was that black 17-year-old. And, decades later, I did research on economic conditions back then.
Back in 1948, the unemployment rate for 17-year-old black males was just under 10 percent, and no higher than the unemployment rate among white male 17-year-olds.
How could that be, when we have for decades gotten used to seeing unemployment rates for teenage males that have been some multiple of what it was then — and with black teenage unemployment often twice as high, or higher, than white teenage unemployment?
Many people automatically assume that racism explains the large difference in unemployment rates between black and white teenagers today. Was there no racism in 1948? No sane person who was alive in 1948 could believe that. Racism was worse — and of course there was no Civil Rights Act of 1964 then.
How then could there be this low unemployment rate, with virtually no racial difference? Racism is despicable. But that tells us nothing about what weight it has — compared to other factors — as a cause of particular social problems such as unemployment.
Perhaps the most widely condemned racism in the second half of the 20th century was that in South Africa under apartheid, when an openly racist government proclaimed white supremacy, and denied blacks basic human rights. Yet, even under such a regime, there were particular occupations in which black workers outnumbered white workers — even though it was illegal to hire any blacks at all in those particular occupations. Economics carried weight, even in South Africa under apartheid.
In the United States, what was unusual about 1948 was that, for all practical purposes, there was no minimum wage law in effect. There was a minimum wage law on the books. But it was passed in 1938, and a decade of high inflation had raised money wages, for even low-level jobs, above that minimum wage.
Among the effects of a minimum wage law, when it is effective, is that many unskilled and inexperienced workers are priced out of a job, when employers do not find them worth what the law specifies. Another effect of a minimum wage law is that it can lead to a chronic surplus of job applicants.
When an employer has 40 qualified applicants for 20 jobs, it costs the employer nothing to refuse to hire 10 qualified black applicants. But if he has no more than 20 qualified applicants, that is a different ball game.
The point here is that economic factors carry weight, and sometimes, under some conditions, those economic factors carry more weight than racism. Even in South Africa under apartheid.
In the United States, as the minimum wage rate specified in the law began to be raised, beginning in the 1950s, so as to catch up with inflation and then keep up with inflation, the minimum wage law became effective in practice once again — and a racial gap in unemployment rates opened up and expanded.
As a black teenager, I was lucky enough to be looking for jobs when the minimum wage law was rendered ineffective by inflation. I was also lucky enough to have gone through New York schools at a time when they still had high educational standards.
Decades later, when examining the math textbook used by some young relatives of mine, who were living where I grew up in Harlem, I discovered that the math they were being taught in the 11th grade was less than what I had been taught in the 9th grade.
The opportunities open to my young relatives in Harlem — and to other young blacks elsewhere — were not nearly as good as the opportunities open to me back in 1948.
Many of the seemingly compassionate policies promoted by the progressives in later years — whether in economics or in education — have had outcomes the opposite of what was expected. One of the tragedies of our times is that so many people judge by rhetoric, rather than by results.
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