Friday, September 7, 2012

Obama Signals Unions - Wait Til I get Re-Elected!

Tomorrow at an 8AM breakfast you will hear a brilliant and comprehensive review of the economy, fiscal cliff discussion,macro issues Fed Policy  and the market impact depending upon which way the election goes.

I urge you to attend. You will not be disappointed.



This Saturday, September 8 @ 8 am:
Skidaway Island Republican Club True Perspectives Series


Full Buffet Breakfast PLUS a Huge Helping of :

The Economic Issues for November

Presented by: Patrick Fleming
Caldwell & Orkin, financial services, Atlanta

The Economy will be the deciding issue on November 6

RSVP NOW
Where
Plantation Club @ The Landings
When
Saturday, September 8, 8:00 am
RSVP
Jack Kaster 598-7714 or kasjac@bellsouth.net
$10 Members and Non-members - All welcome
We must have accurate numbers for the breakfast preparation
Mr. Fleming will cover all aspects of the issue-
  • Current macro-economic analysis
  • Fed policy in an era of "0%" rates
  • How the election may impact the markets and vice versa
  • The "Fiscal Cliff", and
  • A few ideas for personal investing in this environment
  • (Don't forget the delicious buffet)




A cogent response from a longtime friend, fellow memo reader and very solid portfolio manager: "Since the left cannot convince us, they must compel us. (That's why left radio doesn't work. It isn't convincing or even entertaining.) The force of law enacted by the will of the mob is one of the things our founding fathers tried to avoid when they set up our form of government. They pitted three strong groups of sinners against each other to try to keep any one group of sinners from gaining the upper hand on the other two and thus acquiring the keys to tyrany over the people. A group of pigeons is called a mob."
---
Job numbers were  not anything to write home about so it  raises prospects The Fed will stimulate which, of course, is the wrong thing for them to do but they might  feel compelled to take some action.

With all the political and economic uncertainty corporations are unwilling to spend for capital improvements.  Europe is in a mess, China's economy is slowing and American consumers are de-leveraging their balance sheets while being squeezed by the inflation they are told is not there - that is if you do not eat,drive to work etc..

The Fed seems  willing to pump out more money which means more debt on which eventually higher interest rates will place a crushing burden on government revenue intake.

The best way out of the mess the politicians and the electorate have gotten us into is to bring government spending down to 19% of GDP, change and simplify our tax policies and eliminate a host of tax loopholes, cut the size of government and red tape and tell the truth to the American people. Petty tall order!

This is what Romney and Ryan have tried to do but have been less specific than is required.  Meanwhile Obama has dumped on anything Romney and Ryan have proposed calling it a return to the policies that got us into this mess which is a lie. These were the policies Clinton had forced upon him by Gingrich, and were the same policies begun by Reagan, They worked nicely as our economy expanded and job growth accelerated.

The last thing that would give the greatest psychological boost would be a return to a currency backed by gold.  This is not likely to happen for several reasons. First, politicians would not favor something that would limit their ability to spend money open ended.  Second, with gold priced where it is I doubt we could afford to return to a gold backed currency. Nixon let the inflation and cheapening of the dollar horse out of the stable and that horse was never returned as was the intent.

Obama offers, as Krauthammer points out, platitudes, a dreamy vision but nothing concrete. Oh but the pigeons keep applauding! (See 1 below.)
---
John Fund, our February SIRC President's Day speaker, was just interviewed about Obama's message to Labor Union Boss Hoffa  that, as with Putin, should he be re-elected he will have a gift for the unions and labor. Obviously Obama needs a heavy union turn out to help him get re-elected so he has apparently begun a whisper campaign alerting his various constituencies he will have a host of goodies for them once re-elected if they will hang in there.

Fund pointed out it was doubtful Obama would be able to get anything favorable passed through Congress so he could/would resort to using an Executive Order or work through the NLRB which he would control.

It is a sound bet that a second term for Obama will issue in an Imperial Presidency the likes of which we have never seen.  If you know anyone who lives in South America ask them because they know all about what Imperial government is all about.
---
Dick
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1)Roubini: Weak Jobs Report Will Spark Fed Stimulus


The weak August jobs report will prompt the Federal Reserve to roll out a third round of quantitative easing, said New York University economist Nouriel Roubini.

The U.S. economy added a net 96,000 jobs in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. July's figures were revised down to 141,000 from 163,000, while June's figures were revised down to 45,000 from 64,000. The unemployment rate fell to 8.1 percent as more people stopped looking for work.

Under quantitative easing, the Fed buys bonds held by banks, pumping the economy full of liquidity to drive down interest rates to encourage investing and hiring. The Fed has rolled two rounds of quantitative easing (QE1 and QE2) since the financial meltdown in 2008, injecting a combined $2.3 trillion into the economy to spur recovery.

“The economy is weak enough and the unemployment rate weak enough that the Fed is going to do QE3 eventually,” Roubini told CNBC just before the release of the August jobs numbers. 

The Fed holds its next two-day monetary policy meeting on Sept. 12-13.

“Job creation might be around 100,000 or slightly higher for the next few months, but there’s not going to be any significant reduction in the unemployment rate," Roubini said.

Other experts agree that job growth remains too sluggish.

Diana Furchtgott-Roth, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, says the economy isn’t adding nearly enough jobs to make a serious dent in high unemployment rates and put more people back to work. "I would say a good target number would be 400,000 jobs a month," Furchtgott-Roth told Newsmax.TV in an exclusive interview.

And overall dismal economic growth doesn't bode well for any politician, regardless of party affiliation.

"The soft economic environment that we're having, is not going to be good for any incumbent," said Sam Bullard, Wells Fargo senior economist, CNNMoney reported. "It's a tough sell for anyone in office."
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

No comments: