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Are we going into a recession?
Do you remember the Great Wallendas?
They are famous high wire walkers, most well-known for their four-man pyramid and cycling on the high wire. But as you can see in the image below, they have a lot of tricks…
Source: Shutterstock
They’re raising interest rates to try to slow the economy and tame inflation. But many fear the Fed will overshoot and slow the economy so much that we enter a recession.
As I write Friday morning, US job growth has indeed slowed, but not as much as people hoped. The Labor Department today reported that 390,000 jobs were added in May, down from 428,000 in April. Economists expected the number would be a lot closer to 330,000.
As a result, folks are worried the Fed will feel more hawkish about raising interest rates, and that could tip the economy into recession.
So, are we going to get one? As with many things, it depends on who you ask.
Famed British bond investor Jeremy Grantham says yes. This week he predicted the S&P would plunge another 40%, “at a minimum.”
Last month, JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon says probably not this year. Then earlier this week he predicted investors have to brace themselves for an economic hurricane. But he did not use the word “recession.”
In April, Deutsche Bank made headlines by saying it sees one coming, albeit a “light” one.
No one has a crystal ball. The determination will be made based on the data. So, until we have the data, we just won’t know.
But one thing no one is debating is that it is very possible.
As smart investors, we should all know what to do with our portfolio to survive a recession.
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Stacey Abrams Serves Foundation that Spends Millions on CRT
Democratic candidate for Georgia governor Stacey Abrams sits on the board of a UPS family foundation that donates millions of dollars to academics who promote critical race theory (CRT), anti-capitalist advocacy and abolition of prisons.
The leftist foundation is based in Seattle and is named the Marguerite Casey Foundation. The organization was created to make private grants and is named for the sister of UPS founder Jim Casey. Abrams’ financial disclosures indicate that she has received at least $52,500 from the foundation as income related to her board service.
Abrams’ service for the foundation runs counter to her recent attempts to distance herself from the Defund the Police movement. The foundation has consistently voiced strong support for defunding and abolishing police in America.
In a statement provided to Fox News, the Abrams campaign said that the candidate has been a member of the foundation’s board since May 2021. The statement also claims that Abrams does not share the foundation’s views.
The Marguerite Casey Foundation joined with the Group Health Foundation last December to announce a series of $250,000 2021 “Freedom Scholars Awards” given to six professors who demonstrated leadership in “research in critical fields including abolitionist, Black, feminist, queer, radical, and anti-colonialist studies.”
The annual awards were established in 2020. The foundation says that they are designed to counter the limited resources and constraints “frequently faced by scholars whose work supports social movements.”
One of last year’s award recipients was University of California, Los Angeles Professor Robin D.G. Kelly, who teaches African American history. Kelly told NPR earlier this year that the “secret to capitalism’s survival is racism.”
Kelley also said that there is “no way capitalism can save us,” and any “true liberation” must be opposed to capitalism. He added that his primary goal while growing up was to be a “communist for life.”
Lorgia Garcia Peña also received one of last year’s $250,000 awards. Peña is a former professor of Latinx studies at Harvard University who was denied tenure in 2019. Some of the faculty complained that Peña’s work was activism instead of scholarship. Peña is now a professor at Tufts University who supports ethnic studies as a way to supplant “Eurocentric education systems.”
Other award recipients are professors of CRT who advocate for abolition of prisons and who consider the possible reversal of Roe v. Wade as an indication that the U.S. government “treats women’s lives as disposable and trans people’s lives as disposable.”
Abrams is set to go against incumbent Republican Gov. Brian Kemp in November in a re-match of the 2018 contest. If elected governor, she will oversee appointments to the state Board of Regents, which governs the University System of Georgia.
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After Three Months, Russia Is Stuck in a No-Win Situation
When Vladimir Putin set his sights on Ukraine months before the invasion became reality, nearly nobody thought Russia would still be there three months later. As of May 24th, Putin has hit that mark with no leave date in sight. The Ukrainian people have been surprisingly spritely. While Russian troops were getting positioned along the border for “training exercises,” the rest of the world knew what Putin was doing. The intelligence was widely reported and well known.
Unfortunately for Putin, he only knew what action he was taking, but not what he was doing.
Many Ukrainians attempted to flee the country. Most service-aged men were stopped and asked to stay and fight. Quickly, the requests became law of the land. Those 18-60 would be handed cammies, a rifle, and ammo – it was time to defend the homeland. To say that this ragged team of civilians was ready, willing, and able to fight would be an understatement. While the Ukrainian people have suffered great losses financially, architecturally, and of course in their lives, the fighting resolve they show is tremendous.
This push has inspired other countries like the U.S., England, Poland, and others to help the Ukrainians out. Their contributions of firepower superiority, tracking technology, and advisement have been tremendous, they have stopped short of boots on the ground. This is because of promises made to their people, the length of time the U.S. (and other nations) have been in Afghanistan and Iraq, as well as the lack of true need to go.
While some battles have made it look like it was all but over for Ukraine, the U.S. and others quickly learned that they have a much stronger resolve than most of us gave them credit for. Stories of the Russian military being stared down by grandmothers trying to give them flower seeds so something good grows from their corpses, and farmers taking tanks that ran out of fuel for their own uses were everywhere. It truly seemed like Russia was going to go down and fast.
Unfortunately, Russia has only been pushed back and largely away from major cities. They are, instead, clinging to land they annexed years ago, and the border region where their initial assault took place. Ukraine isn’t going to let them stay there. They aren’t going to let the Black Sea Fleet blockade the dams for them to get cargo and grain out to the world. Instead, they are taking back their country.
Putin is stuck between a rock and a hard place. Keep sending troops to die for a war started over bogus and ever-changing pretenses or pull out and save some of their strength. For decades, this great Russian military had been respected, even feared around the globe. Despite not having much of a conflict since the fall of the USSR, other nations simply did not want that smoke.
Now, after seeing how easily the Ukrainians have been able to push them back, Putin is looking weak. Given the reports of his health issues, and survived assassination attempts, he needs to keep that tough test going or he’ll lose face on a global scale…or at least in his opinion.
The fact of the matter is, after this is said and done, he’s likely done in Moscow as the leader of Russia. Win or lose, he’ll be out, and soon nothing but a memory in the minds of Russians and people across the globe. He can’t win a legendary tale to leave behind, he can’t win Ukraine, and he can’t win the battle against the growing Russian opposition to being in Ukraine. This was not what he expected when the ground froze over for the tanks to roll in.
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Pennsylvanians Say State on Wrong Path, Many Consider Leaving: Poll
By Beth Brelje
A Pennsylvania-based think tank that works with lawmakers to enact state policies has released results of a statewide poll that it says shows policymakers “a new pathway to prosperity” through the support of the foundation’s 23-point reform agenda.
The right-leaning Commonwealth Foundation released its May poll results on Thursday.
The unelected but powerful, policy pushing foundation said its poll shows most Pennsylvania voters in all parties are united in their dissatisfaction with the direction the state is going—some to the point of wanting to move away.
The poll shows 68 percent say things in Pennsylvania have “pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track” and 42 percent said they had considered moving to another state or personally knew someone who had already moved or thought about moving.
“Families are leaving for better jobs, educational opportunities, and quality of life in other states,” the Commonwealth Foundation said in a statement about the poll.
Asked if Pennsylvania is better, worse or the same for businesses than it was 10-years ago, 53 percent said worse, 33 percent said about the same and 14 percent said better.
The majority, 45 percent, graded Pennsylvania’s K-12 school system at a “C” level. Just 5 percent gave it an “A” but 8 percent graded it an “F.”
Of those polled, 41 percent were Republican, 45 percent Democrat, 14 percent independent, and 48 percent were men while 52 percent were women.
Across parties, the top category of concern voters picked was “Rising prices and inflation,” followed by “The economy and jobs,” and third, “Taxing and spending.” Very few participants picked COVID-19, education, or public safety as a top concern to consider in the November general election.
The majority of those polled agreed the following goals are important:
Ensuring all K-12 students have access to an excellent education.
Reducing government spending and regulatory red tape.
Reforming welfare and protecting the dignity of work.
Increasing the number of Pennsylvanians in the workforce.
Restoring public sector workers’ rights
Making health care more accessible and affordable.
Making government more accountable and transparent
In response to the poll, the Commonwealth Foundation is urging lawmakers to support its 23-point reform agenda, called Better Pennsylvania in 2023.
“If lawmakers or those running for office want to make life better for Pennsylvanians, they’ll adopt these polices and ensure everyone has an opportunity to flourish,” Jennifer Stefano, Commonwealth Foundation executive vice president said in a statement. Many of the proposed policies are items the foundation has advocated for in the past.
Here is a look at the agenda by category, including the percentage of people polled who supported the policy.
Education
Expanding tax credit scholarships, which allow businesses to donate money to nonprofit organizations that provide scholarships to low-income and middle-income children in Pennsylvania to attend pre-kindergarten or K-12 private school (85 percent support).
Creating education opportunity accounts, a government-funded account that parents can use for restricted educational expenses, including tuition, tutoring, online education programs, and therapies for students with special needs (84 percent support).
Establishing an independent authorizer for charter schools, such as a state board or universities, which would approve and renew charter schools; rather than the current system in which only school districts can approve charter schools (80 percent support)
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Creating an A-F grading system that would give every one of Pennsylvania’s K through 12 schools a grade based on factors including state achievement, learning gains in assessment scores, and graduation rates (82 percent support).
Pennsylvania Economy
Passing a state constitutional amendment that would limit increases in government spending to the rate of inflation plus the rate of population growth. The limit could be exceeded with agreement from two-thirds of both houses of the General Assembly (82 percent support).
Lowering Pennsylvania’s tax rate for all businesses by eliminating $1 billion in state government-funded subsidies to select companies (80 percent support).
Requiring a vote by the state legislature to approve any new state regulation that would cost more than $1 million (77 percent support).
Withdrawing Pennsylvania from the multi-state Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) because Governor Wolf entered into the agreement without legislative approval, and because it imposes additional taxes on electricity production (62 percent support).
Workforce
Requiring healthy adults (excluding seniors, individuals with disabilities, and those with young children) who receive welfare benefits to work, seek work or job training, or volunteer in their communities to continue receiving benefits (82 percent support).
Ensuring that individuals are eligible for welfare by verifying income, residency, and household composition twice a year (88 percent support).
Granting Pennsylvania businesses and individuals tax credits for donations to approved charitable organizations that provide basic needs such as childcare, medical care, food, clothing, shelter, and job placement (87 percent support).
Allowing certified nurse practitioners in Pennsylvania to work without the supervision of a doctor to increase access to health care (71 percent support).
Tying the length of time an individual can receive unemployment benefits to economic conditions. For example, shorter benefit periods when the unemployment rate is low; and longer benefit periods during a recession. This would encourage work and help shore up Pennsylvania’s depleted unemployment trust fund (78 percent support).
Accountable And Transparent Government
Enrolling all newly hired government employees into a 401(k)-style retirement plan, similar to what most employees in the private sector receive, instead of a guaranteed pension for life, to create predictable and affordable retirement benefits (83 percent support).
Removing government control of the sale and distribution of wine and liquor by selling all state-run liquor stores, and allowing private retail stores and wholesalers to sell alcohol (78 percent support).
Modernizing Pennsylvania election laws to include voter identification; clear voting deadlines; and limits on private, third-party funding of elections (86 percent support).
Safer Communities
Reforming Pennsylvania’s juvenile justice system to encourage alternatives to institutionalization, such as community-based rehabilitation programs for first-time and low-risk offenders (89 percent support).
Reducing outdated Pennsylvania licensing restrictions that prevent anyone with a criminal conviction who has paid their debt to society from getting a job (91 percent support).
Public Sector Unions
Stopping the use of taxpayer-funded public payroll systems to collect campaign contributions and other funds that government union leaders use for political purposes (87 percent support).
Requiring state and local governments to post labor contracts before voting on them, to give taxpayers transparency on the cost of government union contracts (90 percent support).
Requiring regular elections for government employees to vote on their union representation, something that has not happened for more than 30 years (88 percent support).
Requiring state and local governments notify all employees of their legal rights to join or not join a union (93 percent support).
Allowing government union members the right to end their union membership at any time (89 percent support)
Beth Brelje REPORTER
Beth Brelje is an investigative journalist covering Pennsylvania politics, courts, and the commonwealth’s most interesting and sometimes hidden news. Send her your story ideas: Beth.brelje@epochtimes.us
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