Thursday, November 2, 2017

New Political Lows - Thanks Va. Democrats. Consequence of Obama Vacuums Continues To Plague Trump and Will Future Presidents. French Music.



More from Joel  Ross  (See 1 below.)
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The French may be a lot of things I find hard to swallow. I lived near Orleans for 18 months when I was in service and came to love the French villagers,  They are warm, accepting up to a point and were always gracious to me.  The thing I most like if their language. It is so lyrical and poetic.

http://www.youtube.com:80/wa tch_popup?v=wKO98rMIIiY
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Every time you think politics has sunk to a new low Democrats and their mass media friends are capable of dis-proving that statement.

As Democrats Portray Trump Voters Running Over Muslims, A Muslim Ran Over Americans

The top three best selling vehicles in America are pick up trucks. And Democrats view pickup trucks as proxies for simple-minded bigots. Add in an Ed Gillespie bumper sticker and a "Don't Tread on Me" license plate and suddenly those simple-minded bigots are willing to hoist a Confederate flag and kill Muslim kids. The press reaction, naturally, was predictable. Those political reporters who know no one who drives a pickup truck were perfectly fine with the Democrats' ad. They excused it as best they could. Then when a Muslim did what they thought only a Trump voter was capable of, the left and its political reporters immediately wondered when the backlash against Muslims would happen. The backlash should be against the Democrats and should be fierce and led by the President. President Trump should be on Twitter today noting that Democrats portray Trump voters as willing to run over Muslims while a Muslim is actually running over Americans. And the press is more worried about a backlash against Muslims than actually stopping terrorists.
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Comment from a dear friend, tennis and bocce player and fellow memo reader regarding my LTE on PC'ism: "Dick ... You are dead center with this letter!!  The only question I would have is what good has PC done at all?  It appears to me that even those societal changes that may appear good have long term detrimental effects ... like sensitivity to name calling ... it has created a generation who are so thin skinned, they will bleed at any altitude over 10 feet!!   J--"

And my response:

I agree but I do think, initially , it served to bring attention to matters that needed addressing.  A case in point and a very simple one.  Shaved curbs that allow those in wheel chairs to navigate crossing street, parking spaces for  handicap and these are the low fruit consequences. 
Like any do good effort it went wild, expanded beyond what was sane. There are no 'curbs' on progressive and liberal thinking, that is the main problem. If they think and propose it it cannot be challenged.  They are omnipotent. I say so it must be so. Me"
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Obama created vacuums which either Islamist terrorists filled and or Putin is now going to do so. 

Putin's Trojan Horse is Iran.  Just more Obama Mess for Trump and succeeding presidents to deal with ? (See 2 below.)
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Dick
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1)Finance
The Amazon affect is creating various stocks to get hit regardless if Amazon could really impact their business. For example is the hit to grocery stocks when Amazon bought Whole Foods. Now they said they were going to enter the drug business in some unclear way but companies like Thermo Fisher dropped 7 points immediately even though Amazon cannot impact their business which is partially distribution of medical supplies and instruments to labs and hospitals. TMO has a large highly trained sales force that helps customers stay supplied with the latest equipment and supplies and advises customers. There is no way Amazon can provide the logistics and advisory services that TMO does, but the stock initially declined regardless. Just be aware these declines do not last in many cases as the market better understands the reality of where Amazon can compete effectively.

Compared to 20 years ago there are 50% as many public companies and 17% fewer shares outstanding in public markets. This is due to M&A and stock buybacks.  It means share movements can potentially be larger due to lesser number of shares outstanding in the market when there is a move to buy or sell. There remain few fixed income opportunities for any decent return.  Equities continue to be the place to invest to make real returns. The S&P 500  index is up 15% YTD, and the Dow is up more. Most earnings were good and GDP growth was better than forecast. It is unclear but it is possible the S&P could be up 16% -18% by yearend. Compare that to your returns on a classic 6040 portfolio.

The consumer savings rate is now at a 10 year low. That means consumers are much more confident since the election and it will be reflected in Christmas retail spend. It will be a very good holiday season which means the stock market will go up further in Q1 2018 as Q4 earnings come in better than forecast. Combined with increased exports and rising wages, and economic performance will remain good. If tax reform is passed before Christmas that will accelerate spending. With jobs secure, optimism rising, and capital spending rising nicely, the earnings increases should increase into Q1 2018. See the attached economic forecast by Mark Zandi. Keep in mind he is a Democrat and anti Trump, so the last part on taxes I feel is more political than true economics. The risks are starting to build in that interest coverage by consumers is declining, and they are using savings to buy larger capital good. If not kept in check this could lead to a replay of over leverage by consumers by 2019.

Retailers continue to go BK. In almost every case it is a retailer like Toys R Us that is owned by a PE investor, and way over levered. As we know the retail landscape is being recreated.  Along with retailers going BK are IL, CT, NJ, and over time CA. All are run by Democrats (IL is run by a left wing legislature that overrides the governor’s veto) and all are states with huge entitlement programs and major cities that are run by liberals. CA cannot continue to raise taxes especially after the deduction for state taxes is eliminated for the upper income payers. At some point taxes will decline and expenditures will continue to rise, and it will get ugly again.

Climate Change
One of the things I learned on my hikes in Utah was that the earth has been covered by ice and then warmed and then cooled in cycles which led to massive oceans covering what is now the great plains and the deserts of the southwest and southern Utah. In 1300 AD major climate change in southern Utah caused the local Indians to move to better living conditions. Interestingly is there were no cars, no factories and no man made impacts. Over millions of years the oceans came and went across the US and temperatures rose and fell. This was caused by a combination of climate change and the rising up of the western mountain ranges.  The point of all this is it is clear when you go out there and read the information provided by the national park service and other nonpolitical sources,  climate change has happened since the earth was formed and it has be cyclical -up and down. Massive flooding has occurred over the eons. Sometimes the climate changes and flooding or creation of deserts was fairly fast causing humans and animals to flee or to die. The point is climate change is not a new phenomenon. The earth has had vast climatic and other changes over centuries and it is not at all clear if one is objective how much of current climate change is a continuation of these natural changes that have always occurred or how much is influenced by man. Based on what I read and saw out in Utah convinced me that the natural changes are far more impactful than anything man is doing. It is now reported that the super volcano in Yellowstone may blow in the relatively near term- decades or centuries and when it does much of the US will die from ash and utter darkness caused by the volcanic cloud. NASA believes that is a far more real and dangerous risk than anything humans my do in the next few decades and they are working on ways to try to mitigate the chance of a violent eruption.

Politics
What do we now know from the Manafort indictment, and Papandopolous plea bargain. Mueller has no proof at all of any collusion by Trump.  Popandopolous talked to the professor in London in March before he had any involvement in the campaign, Manafort rejected the proposed meetings with Russians that Popandopolous was pushing, and nothing happened.  and the professor claims the story about the woman who was supposedly related to Putin as a pure fabrication.  There is nothing in the Manafort indictment that has anything to do with Trump. Nobody on any of the Congressional committees has offered any proof at all of collusion. However, Clinton and the DNC using a law firm to hide illegal payment to Russian agents for false information is illegal. Podesta was Manafort’s partner in much of the Ukraine work. The FBI apparently paid Steele and used the dossier to get a FISA warrant. Next up is Flynn to be indicted. What I find most interesting was the timing of the indictment. Just as the press was starting to raise questions about the dossier and uranium and the pressure was building on Muller related to uranium, they spring the indictment to change the subject. I predict there will be no finding of collusion by Trump, the dossier and uranium will become the real scandal next year, and Republicans prevail. Nunes will be proven to be the real hero who has been improperly attacked because he was the only one who got proof of the Democratic illegal actions. In the end he will be vindicated.

PC Insanity
The decision by the VA church to remove the plaque honoring Washington because some people felt “unsafe” by a plaque honoring the founder of the country,  is proof that the left has really lost their minds. Unsafe???? Is old George going to rise from the grave and attack them. Do we tear down the George Washington Bridge, and the Washington monument.  Maybe we have to change the name of Washington DC so blacks do not feel “unsafe” going there. If Washington is to be removed form existence then what about Jefferson who wrote the Bill of Rights. The truth is that church has lost around 30% of the flock over the past decade or so, and like Hilary they need someone to blame. If we cannot honor the man who led our revolution and gave us freedom, and our way of life, then there is nothing left to our history and culture. We would be an empty vat of victims wallowing in the slop of political correctness. Between this, the dress codes for Halloween on campuses, and the NFL , DeBlasio wanting to remove Columbus statue, we are reliving Nazi Germany in the thirties. We need to rise up and stop the destruction of our very essence as a nation, all to satisfy some radical left wing ideology. The rest of us reject this PC dictatorship.  It is our country too and we in the vast  majority get to rule. The more statues, plaques, names and monuments get torn down by Democrats and the left, the more votes Republicans get in 2018.

Are you aware that people actually talk to Alexa and start to think it is almost human. They are now working on giving Alexa the ability to talk back about suicide and other psychological emergencies. This is really scary stuff when robots and AI take on a human role. AI just learned to beat the champion players in complex board games and the machine gets smarter each time it plays. It gets smarter by itself. Think about the implications of that. Consider that many customer service calls are now answered by a AI based software. You are talking to a computer many times and it is answering you. I am getting involved with two AI based companies


For everyone who thinks I am pro Trump the person, and that I drank the Kool Aid—there is a total difference between the person Trump and the policies of his administration. I am strongly for the foreign, military, economic and many of the domestic policies, but not for the man. We had no choice but to vote for him, the person, to get the policies that will repair the vast damage done by Obama. Hilary was another vote for a third term of disastrous policies and slow economy.  It is why I have repeated several times, ignore what Trump tweets or says and watch what the cabinet actually does. Not only were Obama’s policies destructive, but many of his actions were unconstitutional- DACCA, recess appointments, Iran deal, subsidies for Obamacare, and unmasking of Trump staff. So next time you think Trump is acting badly, remember all the illegal things Obama did and his lies about Benghazi, ISIS , Obamacare and the Iran deal. What one realizes out in the real America in Utah, Washington is totally disconnected from the voters, and America, and no matter which party is running things, makes the word swamp a compliment for what really goes on there. They are all disgusting.

The terrorist who killed innocents in NY today came in on a “diversity visa”. There are almost no restraints and vetting on these green cards. It is a lottery. I wonder if the judge in Hawaii, of the judges of the ninth circuit, who think we need to allow in every Muslim, are they going to the funerals of the people murdered today by a Muslim killer who should never been allowed in. The price for left wing PC politics of immigration invariably end up with dead innocent Americans who were murdered by radical Muslims.  They got all exercised by the 4 dead soldiers in Niger, but you hear silence from the left when 8 Americans die riding their bikes in NY.


By Joel Ross
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2) Russian President Vladimir Putin Said to Be Embracing Iran as ‘Strategic Partner’ With Tehran Visit

avatar by Ben Cohen

Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei in Tehran. Photo: Mehr News Agency.
Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Iran for an official visit on Wednesday, in another major demonstration of the burgeoning partnership between Tehran and Moscow, and a further sign of Russia’s enhanced status as a regional power-broker.

Putin met in person with Iran’s “supreme leader,” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, before moving on to a trilateral summit with his Iranian and Azeri counterparts, Hassan Rouhani and Ilham Aliyev. Broadly focused on trade, law enforcement and national security issues between the three neighboring countries, analysts say that Russia’s strengthening of its relations with Iran is what lies at the heart of the talks — at a time when Iran is boosting its Shia proxy paramilitaries around the region, and the US Congress debates whether to continue with the JCPOA, the 2015 nuclear deal agreed to by Iran and six world powers, including America.

“The key word here is ‘friendship,'” Anna Borshchevskaya — the Ira Weiner Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy think tank and an expert on Russia-Middle East relations — told The Algemeiner on Wednesday. “Putin said before leaving that Russia and Iran have had 500 years of diplomatic relations, never once mentioning the historic rivalry between them, and it’s on the basis of that friendship that relations will now develop on a number of fronts, including trade.”

Borshchevskaya was skeptical the Russians would accept any changes to the JCPOA advanced by Congress to tighten international monitoring of Iranian nuclear facilities. “They wanted the JCPOA, they wanted Iran to get sanctions relief so they could trade, and they saw the agreement as a victory for their own diplomacy,” she said.

Neither did Borshchevskaya believe that Putin would voice any objections to the Iranian military presence in the area that extends from Kurdish and Arab regions of Iraq and Syria to the Mediterranean coast and Israel’s northern border.

“The Iranians may not have identical strategic goals to the Russians, but these don’t necessarily conflict,” she observed. “I don’t see a wedge between Iran and Russia anytime soon — they have a common enemy in America, and that brings them together more than anything else.”

Iran’s official response to Putin’s visit suggests that a highly special relationship between Moscow and Tehran is in the making. Interviewed by the Qatari government-funded broadcaster Al Jazeera, Mostafa Khosh Cheshm — the head of the Islamic Republic’s semi-official Fars news agency — declared that Russia had “come to realize that if they have a true partner in this part of the world, it is Iran.”

“Russia has revived its lost role,” Khosh Cheshm said. “Once it was the former Soviet Union. It decomposed, it collapsed, and it lost everything. Now it’s back on the stage. It’s rising as a regional power that is soon going to be one of the world powers again.”

All these developments should be of great concern to Israel, Borshchevskaya noted. Israel has voiced its anxiety about the strategic advantage enjoyed by Russia and Iran on at least two occasions this year; in July, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu split with the US by explicitly opposing the ceasefire agreement brokered by Russia in Syria, while in October, Israeli leaders watched with alarm as Iranian-backed Iraqi government forces and Shia paramilitaries seized a large amount of territory controlled by the Kurdish Peshmerga in northern Iraq.

“Israel should have no illusions that Russia is going to be an honest broker, or a voice of reason or moderation,” Borshchevskaya said. “Putin’s primary interest is in having Iran as a strategic partner, and that’s not good news for Israel.”

Borshchevskaya also emphasized the Russian leader’s increasing regional clout, and his evident skill in managing a host of conflicting relationships. “In August, Putin met with Netanyahu, in October, the Saudi king paid a historic first visit to Moscow, and now he’s in Iran; that shows you how much regional influence he has achieved,” she said. “He is very good at balancing all these relationships — Kurds, Iranians, Saudis, Israelis — but his main priority is Iran.”

Meanwhile, the chief of staff of the Iranian armed forces, Gen. Mohammad Bagheri, met separately with his Russian counterpart, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, in Tehran on Wednesday.

“There is a good military cooperation between Iran and Russia and of course there are many areas for expanding the cooperation,” Bagheri said, in remarks reported by Iranian media outlets. Gerasimov responded that he was looking forward to discussing “the current situation in Syria, as well as the areas for further military and technical cooperation between Iran and Russia.”
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