Saturday, November 18, 2017

Joel Ross Rants. What A State of Affairs. Don't Ever Believe Government Projections.


Like tip O Neill said when shown pictures of Teddy Kennedy screwing a woman in his sailboat, "Now I see that Senator Kennedy has changed his opinion on offshore drilling."

Tom
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Dick
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More ranting from Joel Ross. (See 1 below.)
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Cutting off Palestinian's hominy and grits. (See 2 below.)
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In less than 6 days my favorite Holiday will be here. The forecast is for rain and that is sad because we have been having beautiful weather.  As noted previously, we are expecting about 18 family , two friends and ourselves and that makes 22.

As with so many of our friends, we have had some health bumps along the way but aside from that we have so much for which to be thankful. 

If only our nation could heal the political divide that separates us and which seems to be widening because the Democrats cannot accept the reality that Trump won and they continue to throw sand in his gears. Hillary financed a Dossier which is basically false, was apparently even used by the FBI and all of this led to a special prosecutor who is wandering all over the vineyard.

To balance the injustice against Trump, there is a possibility that another independent gum shoe will be authorized to inquire into Hillary, her husband and their foundation as to why they engaged in allowing Russian operatives to control a lot of our nation's uranium for which a large sum of money changed hands as well as a usurious fee for Bill to speak.

Now we have an explosion of sexual misconduct charges surfacing against seemingly every male from a variety of beds and couches in Hollywood to comparable facilities in D.C.  One should not make light of the gross conduct of those who have apparently engaged in behaviour which is shameful but is does seem that the entire male population exploited every skirt in the nation some 50 years ago. Even wheel chair ridden Bush '41 has come in for his dose of groping accusations.

Meanwhile, no one, with a view, that is not to the left seems able to speak on a college campus and finish a sentence without being drowned in cacophony and physically attacked . History, represented by statues, is being rewritten and knocked from pedestals and college administrators cower beneath their Ivy Desks.

The mass media have chosen sides and were they on a ship it would keel over and sink from too many leaning on the port side. Even comics have gotten into the act and entire programs have devoted significant time to satire and blasphemy. Halloween was even impacted by the heavy hand of Pc'ism determining/dictating what attire was appropriate and would not offend sensitive souls.

Football has become a political battlefield with aggrieved millionaire players refusing to honor our national traditions and symbols and most of the team owners have meekly caved.

A judge refused to send a traitor to prison because he had served time as a captive and a punk dictator is threatening to obliterate American Cities.

Even the president's own party members are in revolt against him including a few renegades from within their own ranks, several because of offensive comments made about them during the campaign. As for the opposition party, it is being led by two neanderthals whose sole purpose is to say NYET to everything Trump says , does and proposes. If their side wins the House in the 2018 election, it is a good bet they will proceed in bringing impeachment charges against the president because they do not like him, the color of his hair, and the fact that he married a foreigner who wore some white tennis shoes during a trip to a soggy Houston or was it Puerto Rico?

While all of this is going on, Russia is tightening its grip on The Middle East, aligning itself with Iran which, like N Korea, has also threatened to destroy Big Satan and Little Satan (America and Israel) because they too want to become a nuclear power and rule their neighbors.

For anyone who is objective there is no question Trump inherited a mess which he is trying to get his arms around but the obstructionists are doing everything in their power to undercut his efforts while throwing mud from the stands.

The former president, in order to protect his questionable legacy, has formed a large and well financed cadre of supporters who are dong everything in their power to create discord and havoc.

There are those who will take issue with my characterization but I daresay I have been faithful in terms of stating  and/or alluding to facts.  Not being an employee of CNN or other mass media entertainment organizations, I am under no preconditioned allusion or need to engage ni a  smear campaign to distort.  I get no tingle up my leg over what is going on nor glee at those kneeling in contempt.

Nothing I have said should be new to those who read my memos. In fact, I would not be surprised if you were tired of hearing me regurgitate.

I am always open to a brighter view and hope springs eternal but from my vantage the clouds are grey and, as I said, the weather forecast is for rain on Thanksgiving.

If this isn't depressing enough it will soon be Ho Ho Ho time and we will be engaged in deciding whether it is PC acceptable to  wish each other A Merry Christmas.

What a world and state of affairs.

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One last observation/comment regarding those who believe the government's scoring of the deficit the proposed tax bill will create.  The department that scored the tax proposal assumes everything is static.  They fail to account for movement/change as a result of tax modifications. The purpose of the proposal is to incentivize business to come home and grow the garden here which means more employment which, in turn, means more tax revenue for government coffers.

Will it result in the entire deficit created to melt? Time will tell but without tax modification the deficit will grow even larger but the bureaucrats do not tell you this..  Meanwhile, Democrat keep repeating this falsehood to gain leverage among the unwashed who are incapable of thinking for themselves. Don't be one of them and, most of all, don't believe anything the government tells you. When have government projections ever been right?
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Dick
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1) Joel Ross

The past few years of poor performance at GE, and the new rapid decline in share price and reduction of the dividend by 50%, should remind all that nothing lasts forever in business and investing.  If you are old enough you may recall the nifty fifty.  Most of those companies are gone. IBM was once the one and only computer company, and in the early days of computers, companies only bought an IBM machine and not that desk top thing from a startup named Apple. Motorola once owned the mobile phone business, and then Nokia did. Remember them. On the other hand, Home Depot is the star of retail now and a giant winner since they fired Nardelli. So even though it is a retail business,  it is one of the best stocks to have owned over the past five years. Point is, the world is moving on at an ever faster pace today, and what was, may no longer be in a year or two. Therefore, you need to always manage your portfolio actively. You need to be aware of all that is happening around you, so even if you do not understand the technology, or the market, you need to be aware that change is occurring and maybe the stock you own is no longer such a sure thing, nor a guaranteed dividend payer. Just because GE was the gold standard dividend payer for a century, does not mean it still is. Never depend on just your financial advisor or broker to alert you to potential problems.  It is your money and your responsibility to pay attention. Many leave the portfolio to be managed by the wealth manager who has discretion over your money. Many mangers just use some portfolio management formula and many now use a computer to decide what allocations and specific stocks you should own. Some managers and advisors are very good, but some are not. Over the past several years hedge funds have performed poorly and active managers have generally failed to beat the market. I have never allowed anyone to make any decisions about what stocks I own or sell.  They make suggestions, but the decision is mine in every case. That works for me because I make the time and have the knowledge to invest to meet my personal strategy. If you are not financially experienced and have no time to pay attention to the world and specific stocks, then self-management may not be good for you.

Trucking is one of the best barometers of the economic situation. In 2017 orders for new trucks are 3 times what they were in 2016. There is a reasonable chance Q4 will again hit 3% GDP growth. The biggest problem the US faces is that once the tax bill passes and there is a repatriation of $2 trillion or whatever amount, there will not be the skilled workers to fill the jobs created next year. There are already serious shortages in construction and skilled occupations and it is slowing growth. Opioids have removed tens of thousands of people from the workforce. Excessive entitlements such as disability for all, food stamps for all and other give away programs, have left thousands of perfectly able people sitting on the side collecting your tax money.  This is the biggest drag on growth once tax reform and more deregulation are passed. Even the air force is unable to attract all the pilots it needs to the point it is now a crisis level which will impact our ability to fight a war. The result will be wages will rise unless there is a major improvement in productivity which can only come once companies invest in new technology to be able to function well with less people. As much as AI is replacing people, the need is growing for more humans as the economy grows. That is one of the main goals of the tax reform- immediate expensing of capital investment to incent companies to buy the needed equipment and systems.

The Dems and the press were all over Trump because he spoke to Putin and said we need to move on. Putin knows his efforts with the election failed, but it succeeded beyond his wildest dreams when Obama and Clinton invented the dossier and created the false narrative about collusion. Hilary and the DNC did far more damage to America and national security with the false dossier and the resulting investigations and refusal to cooperate by Dems, than Russia ever dreamed possible. Brennan and Clapper call Trump afraid of Putin, and being manipulated by Putin. How ironic.  Putin and Iran played Obama like a puppet and China let  Kim develop nukes because they knew Obama would do nothing. Assad ignored Obama and Hilary because they knew Putin would be able to intimidate and roll Obama. It is absurd to think Trump should treat Putin like a pariah the way Obama did. He runs a major military power and is trying to defeat us in many ways. Not having a businesslike relationship  so they can talk about major issues would be stupid. Obama dealt with Iran, who holds rallies shouting death to America and eliminate Israel, but Brennan and the Dems criticize Trump for trying to deal with Putin. So now after eight years of weak leadership and disastrous foreign policy by Obama his minions claim Trump is the one being played?  They complain he did not moralize like Obama about human rights. All Obama did by that was look naïve and weak, and it accomplished getting a lot of  people dead in Syria and elsewhere. Xi, Putin, Dtuarte, the Mullahs and others did not get where they are by caring about their people, or the lack of rights. The only way to deal with them is to use a credible threat of force, or economic pain. Tillerson and Trump understand that, and so do not want to look weak and foolish talking about those things. You have to have the ability to us e force but more key you have to convince the bad guys you will really do it. That is why Trump bombed Syria when Assad used chemical weapons, so Trump could make the point to all of the stark difference from Obama. Now there are numerous leaders like Abe and Sisi, and Netanyahu, and the Saudis who publicly say it is good to have America back as a world leader. Abe is even now willing to change the Japanese constitution to allow them to go to war to defend themselves again. He never did that with Obama. The Saudis were afraid to take on Iran with Obama, but now are leading the fight. Trump may be all the bad things you think, but maybe that is exactly the kind of guy the world needs to deal with the really bad guys. He is one of them, so he is able to deal with them as an equal tough guy. Tillerson and Mattis have vast real world experience and they understand better than almost anyone how to deal with all of these leaders, so maybe they with Trump as the mouthpiece is a very effective team. We will see what the next year brings on many fronts.  
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2)

Passing the Taylor Force Act will mark a vital step in the War on Terror


By Michael Makovsky and Mark Fitzgerald
There is bipartisan consensus for the need to fight Islamic terror central, and yet the American taxpayer helps finance an organization that incentivizes terrorism. Every year the Palestinian Authority (PA) spends hundreds of millions of dollars rewarding attacks on civilians, contributing directly to the wave of stabbings in Israel that took the life of U.S. Army veteran Taylor Force last year, among dozens of others. This week the House Foreign Affairs Committee will mark up legislation, dedicated in his name, that would create real pressure on the PA to end its brutal policy. We strongly urge Congress to act now and pass the Taylor Force Act.
Taylor Force was a West Point graduate and Army officer who served tours in Iraq and Afghanistan. After leaving the military, he was murdered by a Palestinian in March 2016 while visiting Israel as a private citizen. The attacker, who was killed by police, was praised in official PA media as a martyr, and his family now receives a generous stipend from the PA.
This is part of a broader program, enshrined in PA law, to incite terrorism by individual Palestinians against Israelis and other civilians — including Americans like Taylor Force. This program provides a sliding scale of monthly salaries and benefits — including jobs in the PA — for those injured or imprisoned by Israel for such attacks: the more successful the attack, the bigger the payout. If the assailant is killed in the process, his or her family is eligible for similar rewards.
The PA spent an estimated $300 million last year, roughly seven percent of its total budget, on these payments to more than 30,000 terrorists and their families. It does so at the direct expense of helping provide a better future for its own citizens, and despite its heavy dependence on foreign aid for income.
Much of that aid comes from the United States — an average of $335 million annually over the last five years. The lion’s share, roughly $280 million per year in that span, is economic assistance to cover the PA’s significant debts, freeing up funds for their “pay-to-slay” system.
The issue has not gone unnoticed by Congress. Current law requires U.S. economic assistance be reduced proportionally to what the PA allocates to these payments. But this has not held true in practice. The PA continues receiving hundreds of millions in U.S. aid annually, and recently increased its subsidies to terrorists.
This is why the Taylor Force Act is so important. Instead of crimping payments around the margins, it would eliminate entirely all U.S. economic assistance until the PA ends its incitement. Like existing law, that means stopping payments for attacks. Unlike existing law, it also means the PA must revoke laws authorizing these payments, and must condemn publicly such actions instead of celebrating them. 
The prospect of cutting off economic assistance naturally raises concerns, precisely because of the meaningful pressures it would create. But the bill would not touch U.S. security assistance to the PA, which is crucial to counterterrorism cooperation with Israel against Hamas and other radical Islamist groups in the West Bank.
It would also be far from the first time the United States has conditioned its aid to the PA — aid intended in the first place to prevent terrorism, improve life for the Palestinians, and support peaceful Israeli-Palestinian coexistence. Instead, millions in American taxpayer dollars end up supporting the very opposite.
This goes far beyond dollars and cents. Earlier this month the Jewish Institute for National Security of America heard from Taylor Force’s father and honored a key champion of this legislation, Sander Gerber, who emphasized the bill’s core focus: “when we are ambiguous in our values, it undercuts the moral force of our legitimacy and leaves our allies to ponder, ‘does America have your back when American taxpayers are funding terrorists to stab you in the back?’”
Once the House Foreign Affairs Committee votes on the Taylor Force Act this week, we urge the full House and Congress to pass it as well and send to the president as soon as possible to sign. Passage will mark a vital step in the larger fight against terror, improve the lives of Israelis and Palestinians, and defend our values.
Dr. Michael Makovsky is president and CEO of the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, where Adm. Mark Fitzgerald, USN (ret.) is a member of the Board of Advisors.
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