Thursday, March 21, 2024

My "Deck Stacked" Essay Published. Oil Surge.167th Day. Slapped Down.

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American Thinker 

The deck is stacked against Israel

By Richard Berkowitz

American higher ups, who hate Israel’s prime minister, have begun to assemble.  Former CIA director John Brennan, President Biden, and Senator Schumer have begun to make demands of Bibi that are not in Israel’s best interest because these weasels have their own issues that motivate these nefarious demands. 

Brennan’s hatred of Trump has led him to the edge of being a traitor.  Biden has wilted from the heat of possibly losing Muslim votes and re-election, and Schumer has always had the spine of a worm.

Bibi may not be revered, as he was in his early years, but after Oct. 7, the nation of Israel is behind the way the government is taking the war to Hamas.  Total victory, which Bibi seeks, may not be in the cards, but Israelis seem interested in pursuing the goal.

There are those, like Bret Stephens, who say Israel has no other choice.  There are also the naysayers, to whom Brennan, Biden, and Schumer are now catering.  No one told America not to torch Dresden, if memory serves me correctly.  Small nations, like Israel, are vulnerable and easy targets, as demonstrated by Schumer’s recent speech calling for elections in Israel.  As for Biden,  his treatment of Justice Thomas speaks volumes.  And then Brennan’s despicable, repetitive attacks on Trump have set a new low.

Many unbiased senior American officers have been awed by the IDF’s pursuit of the war.  Israel did not start or want a confrontation.  Yet the IDF has gone beyond in avoiding civilian tragedies at the cost of their own troops’ lives, and now they are assisting in relieving Palestinian hardships, at further risk to their forces. 

Israel has no desire to administer Gaza, but neither can the Israelis allow Hamas to do so after the war’s conclusion.  Nor can Israel allow the current leaders of the Palestinians to be in charge.  The mess created by Palestinian hatred toward Israel and Palestinians’ willingness to be governed by Hamas led to the current Gordian knot.

The deck seems always stacked against Israel, and I have no doubt that it will be again.  The world, for whatever reason, eventually adores and supports the perpetrator.  The victims, residing in their graves, have no voice.

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As I have been saying.

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New Technology Is Fueling America’s Oil Boom

Editor OilPrice.com

In mid-December, I wrote here that the U.S. had set a new annual oil production record:

“The U.S. set a new annual oil production record on December 15, based on data from the Energy Information Administration. Although the official monthly numbers from the EIA won’t be released for a couple of months, we can calculate that a new record has been set based on the following analysis.”

I could project that new record based on the weekly production numbers from the EIA, but I noted that official confirmation wouldn’t come until sometime this year. On March 11, 2024, the EIA made it official: United States produces more crude oil than any country, ever.

The EIA analysis notes that not only did the U.S. break the previous record in 2023, but speculated that no other nation is likely to break it any time soon:

“The United States produced more crude oil than any nation at any time, according to our International Energy Statistics, for the past six years in a row. Crude oil production in the United States, including condensate, averaged 12.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2023, breaking the previous U.S. and global record of 12.3 million b/d, set in 2019. Average monthly U.S. crude oil production established a monthly record high in December 2023 at more than 13.3 million b/d.

The crude oil production record in the United States in 2023 is unlikely to be broken in any other country in the near term because no other country has reached production capacity of 13.0 million b/d. Saudi Arabia’s state-owned Saudi Aramco recently scrapped plans to increase production capacity to 13.0 million b/d by 2027.”

The EIA analysis noted that following nearly 40 years of annual production declines, in 2009, U.S. crude oil production experienced a resurgence, attributed to the widespread adoption of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling techniques by producers. Since then, production has continued to climb steadily.

The only interruption to this growth occurred in 2020 and 2021, when demand and prices plummeted due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Notably, recent increases in total crude oil and natural gas production in the United States have been primarily driven by the growth of production in the Permian Basin, located in western Texas and eastern New Mexico.

The world’s three largest oil producers — the U.S., Russia, and Saudi Arabia — accounted for 40% of the world’s oil production in 2023:

Oil Production 2023

Global Oil Production in 2023 by Select Countries. ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION

One notable difference between the U.S. and the other two major producers is that Russia and Saudi Arabia still produce far more oil than they consume, making them major net exporters of crude oil.

The Street

Analysts issue unexpected crude oil price forecast after surge

By Dan Weil

Oil is an asset defined by volatility.

U.S. crude prices stood above $60 a barrel in January 2020, just as the covid pandemic began. Three months later, prices briefly went negative, as the pandemic crushed demand.

By June 2022 the price rebounded all the way to $120, as fiscal and monetary stimulus boosted the economy. The price fell back to $80 in September 2022. Since then, it has bounced between about $65 and $90.

Over the past two months, the price has climbed 15% to $82 as of March 20.

Oil prices often trade in a roller-coaster fashion.

Bullish factors for oil prices

The move stems partly from indications that economic growth this year will be stronger than analysts expected.

Related: The Fed rate decision won't surprise markets. What happens next might


Vaguard has just raised its estimate for 2024 U.S. GDP growth to 2% from 0.5%.

Meanwhile, China’s factory output and retail sales exceeded forecasts in January and February. That could boost oil demand in the country, the world's No. 1 oil importer.

Also, drone strokes from Ukraine have knocked out some of Russia’s oil refinery capacity. Ukraine has hit at least nine major refineries this year, erasing an estimated 11% of Russia’s production capacity, according to Bloomberg.

“Russia is a gas station with an army, and we intend on destroying that gas station,” Francisco Serra-Martins, chief executive of drone manufacturer Terminal Autonomy, told the news service. Gasoline, of course, is one of the products made at refineries.

Speaking of gas, the recent surge of oil prices has sent it higher as well. The average national price for regular gas totaled $3.52 per gallon Wednesday, up 7% from a month ago, according to the American Automobile Association. And we’re nearing the peak driving season.

Another bullish factor for oil: Iraq said Monday that it’s cutting oil exports by 130,000 barrels per day in coming months. Iraq produced much more oil in January and February than its OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) target.

Citigroup’s oil-price forecast

Yet, not everyone is bullish on oil going forward. Citigroup analysts see prices falling through next year, Dow Jones’s Oil Price Information Service (OPIS) reports.

More Economic Analysis:

Bond markets tell Fed rate story that stocks still ignore

February inflation surprises with modest uptick, but core pressures ease

Vanguard unveils bold interest rate forecast ahead of Fed meeting

The analysts note that supply is at risk in Israel, Iran, Iraq, Libya, and Venezuela. But Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Russia could easily make up any shortfall.

Moreover, output should also rise this year and next in the U.S., Canada, Brazil, and Guyana, the analysts said. Meanwhile, global demand growth will decelerate, amid increased electric vehicle use and economic weakness.

Story Continues

Finally:

More energy commentary:

https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2024-3-20-starting-to-notice-that-the-energy-transition-is-not-happening?format=amp

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The 167th Day of Israel’s War Against Hamas 
By Sherwin Pomerantz 

Day 167 of the war wherein ground troops and the Shin Bet (Israel’s Security Agency) continue to operate in the Shifa Hospital in the northern Gaza Strip, according to an IDF report early on Thursday morning.  Shayetet 13 and the 401st Brigade operated at the scene while avoiding harm to civilians, patients, medical teams, and medical equipment.  IDF soldiers eliminated over 50 terrorists in the proximity of the hospital and located terrorist infrastructure and weapon caches. Since the beginning of the operation at al-Shifa Hospital, over 140 terrorists have been killed.

Additionally, the 7th Brigade launched a divisional operation in northern Khan Yunis and in the town of al-Qarara, during which IDF troops worked to destroy terrorist infrastructure that was located in the area. They eliminated terrorists approaching the soldiers, located more weapons, destroyed dozens of terrorist infrastructures, and destroyed a rocket launch pit.

Israeli security officials are quietly developing a plan to distribute aid in the Gaza Strip that could eventually create a Palestinian-led governing authority there, Israeli and Arab officials said, according to a report in today’s New York Times, causing a fierce backlash from Hamas and creating divisions in Israel’s war cabinet.  A top Israeli defense official has held talks with Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan to build regional support for an emerging effort to enlist Palestinian leaders and businessmen who have no links to Hamas—a U.S.-designated terrorist organization— in distributing aid, some of the officials said. 

The aid would enter by land and sea after Israeli inspection and would head to large warehouses in central Gaza, where Palestinians would then distribute it, the officials said. When the war is over, the people in charge of aid would assume authority to govern, backed up by security forces funded by wealthy Arab governments, the officials said. The effort represents some of the first steps Israel has begun taking to fill a power vacuum left by its invasion of the Gaza Strip following Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack on Israel. The U.S. and Arab governments have pressured Israel to do more to get humanitarian aid for Gazans and lay out a clear vision for postwar Gaza’s administration. 

The effort has already hit obstacles and could fall apart. It so far doesn’t have the support of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, given that some of those involved would be affiliated with Fatah, a rival party to Hamas seen by Netanyahu as supporting terrorism.  “Gaza will be run by those who do not seek to kill Israelis,” said a senior Israeli official from the prime minister’s office 

Fallout continues from the Schumer Senate speech last week with the Israeli government firm in its belief that the war cannot be won unless Hamas’s military capabilities throughout the Gaza Strip are neutralized, including in Rafah.  Pinpoint strikes are already being conducted there with success. A report earlier today mentioned that the US Congress is considering inviting Prime Minister Netanyahu to speak there this spring in response to the comments of Senator Schumer.   Personally, I hope he resists that temptation as I believe we need to take the high road on this one. 
 

Future Leadership
 
Shelly Hod Moyal is Founding Partner and Co-CEO of iAngels and the General Partner of iAngels Ventures. She co-founded iAngels with Mor Assia in 2013.  She is a finance and investment expert and has led iAngels to be one of the most active venture funds in Israel. Shelly oversees deal flow and due-diligence, investor relations and portfolio management. 

As a General Partner, Shelly holds numerous board positions and is actively involved in bringing value to iAngels portfolio companies through assistance with marketing, finance, recruiting, fundraising and business development efforts.
 
Prior to founding the firm, she served as an investment banker with Goldman Sachs and a research analyst at Avenue Capital, where she covered financials at the height of the global financial crisis. Her Wall St. background lends itself to her passion for modeling growth plans of early-stage companies that lead to the deployment of data-driven investment decisions.
 
A Northwestern University- Kellogg MBA graduate, Shelly is a sought-after authority for international conferences regarding Israeli tech investing across disparate verticals and digital assets. 

One would think that a newly constituted government after the war ends could certainly use someone with her capabilities and background…..one would think.
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She needs to be slapped down and hard.
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New York AG Letitia James Takes First Step Toward Seizing Trump’s Assets
 

Read more →





and:

No sooner had I posted the above and whoop de doo!

Letitia James ordered to Withdraw Letter
By
New York Supreme Court
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