Tuesday, October 17, 2023

Pomerantz Day 11. Did IDF Ignore? Did Hamas Destroy Hospital? Market Selectively Positive.

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Israel’s 11th Day of War
By Sherwin Pomerantz

 
As we close in on the end of the 11th day of war here, lots of “stuff” is happening. Thankfully, while rockets are still coming from Gaza they are at a much lower rate and looking at my Red Alert app, there are significant gaps between volleys so, let’s hope that’s a good sign.   The IDF has claimed that Hamas’ capacity to launch rockets has dropped to 100 per day from the march larger volleys of last week.

The number of Israelis displaced by the war has been variously quoted as 78,000 or more with one estimate even at 500,000 although that seems much too high to be considered reliable.  Nevertheless, the border communities both in the south and the north have all been evacuated.  In addition, about 1,000 families have left the country, a mixture of people who reside here and tourists who were here for the holidays but had no way of leaving given the cessation of most commercial flights into and out of Israel.  As an example, American Airlines reported that they have cancelled all schedules to Israel through December 5th.

Reports of payments to the 1,500 families of the terrorists who invaded Israel on October 7th have now been verified as well.  The Palestinian Authority is paying each family a one-time payment of NIS 6,000 (about $1,500) as well as NIS 1,400 ($375) per month for the rest of their lives.  The Authority has allocated $2.8m for this purpose as obnoxious as that pay-for-slay policy of theirs is to all of us.

President Joe Biden is due here on Wednesday. It is rare for a president to visit a country at war when U.S. troops are not involved, though this will be Biden’s second such trip this year, after traveling to Ukraine in February.  He is scheduled to meet with the leadership here and then travel to Jordan.  There he will meet with Jordanian, Qatari and Palestinian leaders as well. 

Presumably he will try to walk that fine line between our desire to eliminate Hamas from the Gaza strip and the world’s increasing level of discomfort with the humanitarian crisis that has developed there.  Hopefully his years of experience will serve him well.  The Qataris probably have more influence with Hamas than anyone right now so we will see where that discussion takes us.

The U.S. military has placed 2,000 troops on 24-hour alert (upgraded from 96 hours earlier this week) to prepare for a potential deployment to support Israel. The contingent is composed mostly of specialists who will be tasked with advising the IDF and providing additional medical support, but they will not serve in a combat role.

Hamas released their first video of an Israeli hostage speaking to the camera.  She is one of 199 being held in Gaza.  Hamas has also announced that they are prepared to unconditionally release all non-Israelis but have not found a safe mechanism to do so.  We have heard no response to that from the Israeli side.

Skirmishes continue on the northern border as well although both sides seem to be indicating that they do not wish the activity to increase.  Let’s hope that proves to be the case. 

A handful of Israeli government officials — but not Prime Minister Netanyahu — took the blame for the failures that contributed to the Hamas attack.  “We failed” said Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.  Added Ronen Bar, the head of the Shin Bet security service, “The responsibility for this falls on me.”  

The European Union announced on Monday that it would launch a humanitarian air corridor to Gaza through Egypt, with the first flights expected later this week.

What has been most encouraging over the last 11 days is the incredible resilience of our people and their coming together to address the needs of the troops who are protecting us.  Even after 9 months of nonstop demonstrations against the government’s plans for judicial reform which split the country, it did not take even 24 hours for the country to put all of those differences aside in the interests of addressing the threats that face us.  We can only hope that after we are victorious, that we will have learned that a country like ours cannot afford internal dissension that pulls us apart.

Sherwin Pomerantz has lived in Israel for 40 years, is CEO of Atid EDI Ltd., a international business development consultancy.  He is also the Founder and Chair of the American State Offices Association, former National President of the Association of Americans and Canadians in Israel and a past Chairperson of the Board of the Pardes Institute of Jewish Studies.
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IDF lookouts say their warnings about Hamas were ignored - report
The lookouts said their commanders told them "Hamas is just a bunch of punks, they won't do anything."

As questions remain about how Israel failed to thwart Hamas's assault, IDF lookouts told N12 on Monday that they had repeatedly warned their commanders of unusual incidents along the border, but were ignored.

"A day before everything happened, I saw people with maps," said one lookout to N12. "They were looking at the fence and pointing at it. I told everyone: 'Listen, something is going to happen. I see them planning things.' I noticed that something was different on the front. I even told the person next to me in jest: 'Listen, they're going to storm our post.' It just looked different."

The lookout added that despite her warnings, her commanders "discounted" her concerns, telling her "Hamas is just a bunch of punks, they won't do anything."
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HOOVER DAILY:

Peace And Terror Cannot Coexist

by Richard A. Epstein via Defining Ideas

Hamas holds Israel, and its own people, hostage to a death wish.


"I wasn't seeing things, it wasn't something usual. We saw a ton of exercises. We would always look at them as if it was Channel 12. It was fun. It was interesting that they were doing exercises."

"We would look at this and we would say 'f&%*, come on, one day is this is going to be on us, this that we're so indifferent about this?'"

"I remember their exercise by heart: they would shoot, lay on the ground, and throw a grenade. In the end that's what happened to me. They shot at me, threw grenades at me."

The lookout added that the farming activity in the area in the month before the attack "looked weird."

"I filmed this, there is proof of this," said the lookout to N12. "When I came to them and told them everything that was happening, they told me 'No, it's nothing, it's farmers, they're making a field there.' I told them, 'No it's not a field. Look there's a bunch of civilians, this looks off.'"

In the weeks leading up to Hamas's assault on southern Israel, Palestinians conducted riots along the border on an almost daily basis, throwing explosives, burning tires, and causing damage to the border fence. A number of exercises were also conducted in the Gaza Strip to mark various anniversaries, including the anniversary of Israel's disengagement from the Gaza Strip.

Lookouts were first to notice the Hamas invasion
The lookouts of the Gaza Division were the first to detect the infiltration by Hamas terrorists into Israel and were quick to call up forces and to fire from a distance using a shooting system, the IDF Spokesperson's Unit said on Sunday.

"The observers acted and still act sharply, professionally, and vigilantly to seek contact and lead to the elimination of the terrorists, even when they were under attack themselves," said the IDF Spokesperson's Unit.
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I have no confirming evidence but I believe Hamas did destroy the hospital because they know they are going to lose the war and now must resort to propaganda in order to cause the the mass media to come forth and protect them so that the misguided campus protesters will continue their support .  If Israel is to blame I believe they will "fess" us because it is never their intent or strategy to kill innocents, That is what Hamas is expert at doing.

They also know Biden is coming and would love to disrupt that meeting as they have  with the Israeli Saudi negotiations.
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Someone I respect believes earnings comparisons will favor stocks with exceptional  earning. Consumers are spending what is in their pockets and the market outlook is selectively positive. He also is extremely positive on energy stocks and technology where earning comparisons should be spectacular. 
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I admit to not knowing anything about tactics or strategy but it seems to me Israel has, more or less, neutralized Gaza, and would be wise to concentrate on eliminating the Ayatollahs.  
Mossad should be able accomplish this and then Israel should destroy the IRG and see what impact that has.

Then Israel can either neutralize Hezbollah  and then return to wipe out Hamas. This, in my opinion, would reduce the prospect of Israeli and Palestinian casualties, bring stability to the region and be a huge signal to MBS that their negotiations can restart,

But then, what do I know.
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