Wednesday, September 6, 2023

Biden Dribbles. 14th Amendment. 2024 Issues. Chicago Mayor.

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Biden continues to dribble arms to Ukraine fearing if he does more Russia will go nuclear. Biden is always paralyzed when it comes to making a tough decision or finding his way out of the room. What a total buffoon. 

 Meanwhile, his failures are matched by the GOP which always snatches defeat out of their creating paralysis.

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The 14th Amendment Trump Panic

Banning Trump from the ballot under Section 3 of the post-Civil War constitutional amendment would harm U.S. law and democracy.

By The Editorial Board

You’d think Donald Trump’s opponents would learn. When they fight the former President in the voting booth, they have won every time since they lost with Hillary Clinton in 2016. But when they use lawfare, impeachment or phony collusion claims, they make Mr. Trump stronger.

Here we go again. Now that their indictments have boosted Mr. Trump in the GOP primary polls (see nearby), his opponents are resorting to their worst idea since the panicky agitation of 2017 to remove him via the 25th Amendment. Now they want to invoke Section 3 of the Constitution’s 14th Amendment to disqualify him from the 2024 ballot.

The 14th Amendment is one of the great post-Civil War amendments that enshrined equality under the law. Section 3 was aimed at Confederates who had taken up arms against the Union. Some legal scholars argue that this clause can now be used to disqualify Mr. Trump. They point to the language that says “no person” who has taken an oath to support the U.S. Constitution shall serve in any public office who has “engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof.”

Does the 14th Amendment Disqualify Donald Trump?

We agree that the disqualification clause has continuing legal force. Its relevance didn’t expire when the last of the Confederates died. What matters today, and in the future, is whether the clause applies to the facts of a specific case. And this is where the never Trumpers go awry—legally and politically.

For starters, they assert that Mr. Trump’s actions after the 2020 election amount to an insurrection and that this is self-evident. Mr. Trump’s behavior was reprehensible, as we noted at the time and have since. But that’s far from saying it was an insurrection or rebellion under the statutory or constitutional meaning of those terms.

The Jan. 6 rally on the Mall turned into a riot at the Capitol. This was an obstruction of a federal proceeding—i.e., the counting of electoral votes. But there have been many riots in American history against U.S. policy that turned violent. The 1970s were rife with them, including bombings of government buildings.

It is surely relevant that Mr. Trump hasn’t been charged with insurrection under 18 U.S.C. Section 2383. Does anyone think special prosecutor Jack Smith would have refrained from charging that crime if he believed he could prove it in court? Instead he has charged a conspiracy to overturn the election, but that is not a rebellion.

An over-broad definition of insurrection and rebellion under Section 3 could easily be abused by political partisans. Already there have been attempts to disqualify from the ballot politicians who supported Mr. Trump’s claims that the 2020 election was stolen. If Section 3 is invoked against Mr. Trump, he won’t be the last target.

All the more so because proponents argue that the disqualification clause is “self-executing,” meaning that it automatically applies to someone who meets the criteria. They say it doesn’t require a criminal conviction in court and can be invoked by state officials to keep Mr. Trump off the ballot. So the Michigan secretary of state, an elected Democrat, could bounce him from that state’s ballot.

This would seem to violate the due-process protections that are explicit elsewhere in the Constitution. Removing Mr. Trump by fiat would also deny voters the constitutional right to vote for the candidate of their choice. See Reynolds v. Sims (1964), among other precedents. This is precisely the right that Mr. Smith, the special prosecutor, accuses Mr. Trump of violating. Democrats would arguably be committing the same offense.

This is how tens of millions of voters would see it, and the fury in response might not be limited to verbal protests or marches. Knocking Mr. Trump off the ballot would validate, in the eyes of his supporters, his claims that the election system is rigged and corrupt.

Advocates of disqualification say not to worry, the judiciary would settle all this after Mr. Trump challenged his disqualification. They say the Supreme Court would have to hear the case, however much the Justices would rather not. That’s probably right but hardly reassuring. This would throw the Court into the middle of the presidential race, jeopardizing the Court’s reputation as apolitical with partisans on one side or the other.

For Mr. Trump’s opponents, these risks are justified because the former President poses a unique threat to U.S. democracy. They’re willing to put democracy at risk in order to save it. But U.S. institutions held up reasonably well despite the strains of the Trump Presidency—even the events of Jan. 6. The transfer of power took place on schedule. Republicans across the government broke with Mr. Trump and supported that transfer. The rioters and organizers are being punished, often severely.

We have argued from the moment Mr. Trump entered the presidential contest in 2015 that the way to defeat him is through the ballot box. Voters will get their chance to do it again next year—first in the primaries and perhaps the general election.

If Mr. Trump does somehow regain the Presidency, in part because Democrats insist on re-nominating a weak President Biden, the normal U.S. checks and balances will continue to exist. The consequences of a 14th Amendment panic are likely to be worse for democracy and its institutions than trusting voters and 234 years of sturdy constitutional example.

And

The GOP’s Big 2024 Problem
A WSJ poll finds indictments are helping Trump in the Republican primaries, but not with all voters.
By The Editorial Board

The poll finds that in a 2024 general-election test President Biden and the former President are tied at 46%. Given Mr. Trump’s myriad legal problems, this shows how weak an incumbent Mr. Biden is. But a poll this far out from Election Day also doesn’t tell you much given how events can change.

The better insight comes when respondents were asked: “Do Donald Trump’s indictments make you more likely or less likely to vote for him, or have no impact on whether or not you would vote for Donald Trump?”

Among Republican primary voters, here are the responses: More likely to vote for Mr. Trump 48%; less likely 16%, and no effect on their vote 36%.

That result confirms what we’ve seen this year, which is that the indictments by Democratic prosecutors are helping Mr. Trump win the GOP’s presidential nod. The biggest jump in Mr. Trump’s support came after the first indictment for hush-money payments by Manhattan district attorney Alvin Bragg, and the other indictments changed that very little. This is exactly the result that Democrats want: Keep the focus on Mr. Trump so he wins the nomination, and then convict him in trials before the general election in November.

That strategy is reinforced by the responses when the WSJ survey asked registered voters the same question about the indictments. Their responses: 24% were more likely to vote for Mr. Trump, but 37% were less likely, and 35% said it would have no effect.

The Republican peril is that more than one-and-a-half times as many voters say the indictments make them less likely to vote for Mr. Trump than more likely. This reflects the tilt of independent voters, as well as the 16% of GOP voters who say the indictments make them less likely to vote for Mr. Trump.

These responses are before any of the coming four trials, three of which are already scheduled before the 2024 general election. An acquittal or hung jury could work in Mr. Trump’s favor, which is why the Democratic indictment strategy is high risk.

But one or more convictions would probably confirm the judgment of voters who say they are less likely to vote for Mr. Trump. If Republicans nominate Mr. Trump, they are likely to be sailing into a political headwind that will be difficult to overcome.

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The former Mayor of Chicago is now teaching at Harvard. Amazing.

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