Wednesday, July 6, 2022

So It Goes In The Big Wormy Apple. SCOTUS Changes The Landscape, Thomas Remains "Uppity." Rants. My Market Thoughts. Zoom Meeting/BIBI.


The Democrats Menu:
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And so it goes in the land of the free and the Big Wormy Apple:

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ZOA’s Susan Tuchman Testifies at NYC Council Hearing on Campus Antisemitism

On June 30, 2022, Susan B. Tuchman, Esq., the director of the Zionist Organization of America (ZOA)’s Center for Law and Justice, testified at the New York City Council’s hearing on campus antisemitism at the City University of New York (CUNY). Ms. Tuchman informed City Council members that antisemitism at CUNY has been a serious and longstanding problem.

In 2013, the ZOA filed and successfully resolved a student-supported civil rights complaint against Brooklyn College after four Jewish students were ousted from an anti-Israel Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) program, allegedly because they were disrupting it. As Brooklyn College eventually publicly admitted, the Jewish students were ejected without justification. Expelling them was a way to prevent them from expressing their anti-BDS, pro-Israel views.

In 2016, the ZOA alerted CUNY’s chancellor and board of trustees to the antisemitic harassment and intimidation that Jewish students were enduring at CUNY’s Hunter College, Brooklyn College, College of Staten Island, and John Jay College. For example, a Hunter College rally to protest rising tuition turned into a frightening attack on Jews. Protestors there shouted, “Death to Jews,” “Jews out of CUNY,” and “We should drag the Zionists down the street.” The ZOA’s letter to CUNY triggered an independent investigation into campus antisemitism. The investigation confirmed that Jewish students felt harassed, threatened and unsafe, and that some students were afraid to identify openly as Jewish on campus.

In 2020, the ZOA filed a complaint against the CUNY School of Law under Title VI of the Civil Rights Act, alleging that the law school was a hostile antisemitic environment that CUNY officials were failing to address. A CUNY Law student uploaded a video on social media in which she threatens to light someone on fire because he is wearing a sweatshirt bearing the emblem of the Israel Defense Forces. CUNY officials failed to investigate this student for violating CUNY’s rules and policies, and instead justified her actions as free speech and acceptable activism. Even after the Office for Civil Rights opened an investigation into the ZOA’s Title VI complaint, CUNY Law rewarded this law student by featuring her as a speaker at its May 2022 commencement ceremony. As Ms. Tuchman informed the Council members, this law student “was treated like a celebrity there, with cheers and applause.”

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Defense Minister Benny Gantz recently revealed that four Iranian military ships have been observed operating in the Red Sea.

'Threat to peace and stability' »

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When the heat and overly biased conclusions have died down the effects of Sotus, in my own view, are quite hopeful. States will debate the respective status of abortion, bureaucrats have had their wings clipped and Congress has been sent a message to rise to the occasion and earn their salaries and citizens are now allowed to defend themselves against those who mean them harm.  Obviously 

Democrats have lost an appendage that is making them despondent because they liked having the third branch held hostage.

Not only will the nation survive these three "ominous" decisions but also probably  thrive because it portends SCOTUS has come down to earth and should continue on a merry path of rational decisions.

There are rumblings two Justices will be impeached for lying to Congress, something Congress does to "us deplorables" daily.

Hillary, is distraught because Justice Thomas continues his "uppity" ways as a black conservative, using his brains independent of her wishes. 

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SCOTUS Decisions Will Change Political Landscape

With the Supreme Court concluding one of the most historic and consequential terms in its history, it leaves in its wake consequences and implications for the direction of our country.

In her latest column, Star Parker breaks down the flurry of Supreme Court decisions we saw in the final weeks of their session, from overturning Roe v. Wade, to protecting the 2nd Amendment, to victories for 1st Amendment rights and freedom of religion, and how these decisions will impact the political landscape going forward.

READ NOW

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Ross Rants:

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Whether we are officially in recession now or not, the reality is, we are in the early stages of a major slowdown even if the GDP report for Q2 comes in at +.25%. Don't be surprised if Q2 is -1.5% to - 2.0%. Inflation has possibly peaked, based on the most current data of slowing sales by unit count, not price, but it might not have done so yet. Whatever the number, it is far too high, and the Fed needs to do another 75 for likely two more months, then continue at a slower increase until inflation is back to 4%. Unemployment will move back to 4% in the few months, and then may be higher by November. Pain is pain, it just hurts a little less bad, or it hurts as bad.

 Consumers are now feeling the pain. I was in the supermarket the other day and the cost of basic items is way up to the point that the average family making $70,000 a year is not able to shop freely anymore. Gas may be down from $5.01, but it still will cost almost $80-$100 to fill a tank on an SUV. For truckers, a tank of diesel is still far too expensive, and is thus adding to the cost of everything transported by truck, which is almost everything. In the face of all this, Biden just lies about US inflation, and refuses to free up oil production and pipelines. He also refuses to approve LNG terminals so that the US can send gas to the EU to relieve their dependence on Russia, and help them get inflation down. Biden just makes totally false statements about the economy and inflation, but nobody in the press says, wait a minute here are the facts, and they do not support what you are saying. The ECB is just now contemplating an interest rate rise to move from negative rates, so the EU will be experiencing inflation for a long time. Bottom line is, recession is here and some high level of inflation is not going away for a very long time. Commodity prices are down a little, and likely will decline from here as the world economy slips into recession. Even China is very slow, despite their public economic reports which are manipulated. I had predicted recession by October, but we got there sooner.

We got here because the White House and Congress adopted a left wing, climate driven agenda, and set of policies that has led to shortages of all commodities, and a major cost increase in all products due to the attempts to shut down oil and gas production and mining. At the same moment they embarked on a massive spending program well beyond what was needed to recover from Covid, and passed the $1.9 Trillion March Rescue bill. In short, we had a major constraint on commodities and supply at the exact moment they were massively increasing demand. Add on a chip shortage, the war creating a serious food shortage, and the EU in a situation where they are vulnerable to an energy shortage. Then add on Covid still crimping supply out of China. To compound the problem the White House intentionally held back Powell's nomination keeping the Fed from raising rates when they should have been doing so- the exact political manipulation of the Fed that was never supposed to happen. So now the Fed is far behind the curve, and has to move very aggressively to kill demand to stop inflation, and thus Powell has as much as said we will have a recession. We are in a unique situation that has not been existing for 40 years, and maybe never, given the gross incompetence and far left agenda of the White House. We could possibly see Fed Funds rates higher than the ten year by year end as the recession drives down market rates, but the Fed continues to raise rates to kill demand further. Republicans need to get 60 seats to reverse this White House agenda.

Many analysts will try to use historic points in time like the seventies, and metrics from then to develop a forecast for now. It won't work. Now is a combination of the thirties and the seventies. In the thirties we were recovering from economic disaster, FDR created the vast bureaucracy in DC to run the economy and our lives. That has grown to become today's deep state. There was war in 1939, FDR tried to pack the court, and the Fed was ineffective. Massive fiscal spending was used to try to recover, and many new liberal laws and regs were put into effect. In the seventies Volker was faced with high inflation, and the Fed was left to fix it with very aggressive interest rate hikes. Oil was the major factor causing inflation and recession. Same as today. Congress was useless. Today we see many of the same issues, but it is a combination of both periods. So analysts who try to point to the seventies to forecast are missing the events of the thirties as also being indicative. One certainty- it will take years to fix the mess we are now in. Higher interest rates is just a piece of a much larger picture. It is why the EPA decision is so key to stopping the deep state, and reversing the control unelected ideologues now have over the economy and our lives.

It is possible that almost everyone now expects a recession at some point, continuing inflation to some level, and continued Fed increases of 75, so maybe the stock market has already priced in much of that negative news. Everyone knows Biden is incompetent, and nothing good is going to happen with oil or food prices, and things are just going to get worse for the economy as the year goes on. Everyone knows earnings reports and full year forecasts are going to be disappointing, to just plain negative. So it is unlikely there is going to be a major shock to the system in July when the data are released, although the GDP print will be worse than most of Wall St expects. If anyone is surprised by a negative GDP print or continued high inflation, they are living on a cloud, or are in a drug induced euphoria. July data are going to be bad, and Biden will blame Putin and oil companies, and say, well we are not as bad as others and this pain gets us to EVs, so it is OK, which will be another lie. So stay safe for now and sit on cash, and just wait to see how things unfold in the market in the next two weeks. There is no good news coming that will make the market suddenly start to recover. If it does go up, it is because stock prices are so low it will be seen as a long term buying opportunity. Maybe we are bouncing around the bottom because so much bad news is known, but we can't be sure yet. Since June 8 we have been bouncing around my forecast of 3750 as the low, with the market hitting 3650, but I have no clarity that is the bottom. It could get worse. I continue to sit on cash and oil. JP Morgan affirms that energy is the best place to be right now. There is time to start getting back in, but we might be very close. 3650 may be the low. We need to wait to hear the July earnings projections for the full year, and the inflation report, before we know where from here. There is nothing good coming from this administration to change things for the better. If the market does have a big bounce back, it is unlikely to get above 4600 by year end.

Putin's strategy is now clear. He is obliterating Ukraine's entire economy by destroying its industrial base and blockading the ports. He knows Biden and the EU will not do the simple things of sending in a squadron of international warships to escort grain carriers. He is counting on Macron caring more about recession than about winning the war. And he knows the Germans are essentially weak. While the US has sent a lot of weapons, we have been late, and not providing all that is needed, so the Russians have been able to move ahead with their new strategy. The next month will matter as we will either supply what Ukraine needs with long range artillery in huge numbers, or the Russians will make more gains. It is unclear which is the outcome.

I continue to believe the ten year may end the year around 2.75% as we will be in recession for a while, and the Fed will have stopped raising in October or November, and will be getting ready to cut. Oil is harder to predict since the oil gas production shortage will continue, and get worse possibly, but due to recession in US and EU, the demand will be much less. It is likely that China is in worse economic shape than we know, and so maybe oil demand will be less than expected.

According to a person who lived for many years in China, and has a very good first hand understanding of the situation there, the Chinese economy is in much worse shape than we are hearing, and it is not going to improve much in the near term. The lockdowns combined with slowing economies they manufacture for, and the realization by many companies that they need to be out of China to have secure supply, China is no longer the economic super power it had been. Real estate prices are declining, and that game may be over as real estate drove 25% of Chinese GDP.

Until November, when hopefully there will be new local and state DAs and governors, there will be no improvement in crime. It is out of control due to the left wing policies of local governments, and they seem unwilling to change until the voters make a change. The same is true for school boards. In November the country is going to have to choose the direction we go from here-left or back to sanity. Abortion will continue to play out in state courts over the summer and into the fall, but the bad economy and crime will have much more impact.

The SCOTUS EPA decision on the ability of agencies to make rules, and in effect make policy, is going to prove to be the biggest decision SCOTUS has made in generations. It is far more important than abortion. It goes to the functioning of the federal government, and ability of the imbedded deep state to make rules and control our lives regardless of what voters want. It changes everything. The left is going crazy because it means they no longer will go unchallenged when EPA, SEC, Labor, ED, Interior, or HHS issue left wing rules. EPA is the biggest impact. Now there is solid precedent with which states and industries can challenge rules and get them stopped. The court finally said the bureaucrats are not all knowing, and do not have the authority to issue rules that Congress did not specifically authorize them to issue. Abortion actually impacts a very small number of people who might get pregnant unexpectedly and live in the wrong state, this EPA decision impacts everyone, and determines how the country will be governed, by elected officials, or by the unelected swamp creatures and lobbyists. Congress 100 years ago began to leave it to agencies to make rules, and in effect set policy, and thus began the slide to the deep state making policy that Congress was too lazy to do. That made nobody accountable to voters. You can't fire a civil servant- I know-I once tried when I ran contracting for Brooklyn Navy Yard and tried to fire a useless employee. It became a major event up the whole command chain, and I was the one admonished. Finally the court gave everyone the right to stop the runaway rule making that cause serious impacts on whole industries and our lives. The court accomplished what Trump started to do. There will now be a flood of cases challenging the deep state. This is why November is critical, and why 2024 has to elect a sensible Republican. The deep state can now be stopped.

The left keeps attacking Justice Thomas. They never forgot what happened in his confirmation, and he defies the rules by being a black conservative, and to top it off married to a white woman. By not complying with their left wing ideology and stereotype, he makes them crazy. The Dems seem to have never read the constitution, and the separation of powers being what makes America so unique. Without an independent judiciary we would be a banana republic. I don't hear the Republicans attacking the other three judges for their clearly left wing votes, and lately their improper and ridiculous political comments like the recent one from Kagan that the US is going to be inundated by the oceans due to the EPA decision.

The Milankovitch Climate Theory was set forth decades ago stating that it is the tilt of earth axis combined with the earth's elliptical orbit, which does shift, as the cause of major climate changes as the earth is affected by the angle of the sun energy hitting earth, and the nearness to the sun, which does change over eons. The Milankovitch model proved there is an impact on temperature over long periods. In 2000 NASA published a piece confirming the earth does shift its axis, and that has a direct impact on climate, and they cited the Milankovitch Theory as being correct. In 1982 the National Academy of Sciences accepted the Theory as correct. If you consider that it is the tilt and direction of the axis is what causes the seasons, and the amount of sun energy hitting the earth causes more or less heat and ice. The planet does not stand still, nor does its orbit stay exactly the same forever. The gravitational pull of the sun the moon, and other planets do affect the earth, but the climate obsessed refuse to accept this fact. We regularly hear about how the universe is in constant motion and change, but the climate people assume earth alone remains totally unchanged in its orbit and orientation to the sun. However, if the government now also said it is the tilt of the axis and the point on the elliptical orbit that is the real key factor affecting climate, they would cause the whole climate political/ industrial complex to look foolish. It would make this whole CO2 craze that is now impacting everything, look far less important. Maybe the tilt of the axis and the impact of the sun's rays has some cause/effect on the creation of CO2-I have no idea, but it might be good for science to try to find out. Look up Milankovitch Theory - you will learn a lot

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Libs Hate America and Americans 

By Kurt Schlichter

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How the Highland Park Shooter Reportedly Obtained His Guns Is Beyond Ridiculous

By Matt Vespa

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Today  (July 7) the market acted like there were nibblers for stocks that had become technology orphans. Not big but fairly wide.  Oil took another dive so we may be close to bottoming. However, the market has yet to demonstrate in a crescendo manner that it is finished upchucking.


Earnings should be fairly decent, the conviction a recession is a sure thing is growing so a good bit of the bad is being discounted.


My portfolios are a mixture of higher levels of cash than normal and black and blue lumps but during the last six months I have vastly improved the quality of my holdings and the income is also much higher from the current holdings.

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 I had a zoom meeting today on Bibi's election prospects.  The speaker thought he took a few mild hits this week but still has a decent chance to regain the prime minister's position. Still too early to take a definitive stand. Not expecting much policy changes during the interim 6 month period until the election votes. are cast.


What Bibi is hoping for is to align with a secondary party and come out with 64 votes, ie. add at least  4 to 5 to his current 58-59.

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