left click and stay on for three talks: https://www.youtube.com/watch?
And:
THIS, my friends, is the way it was. That's a lot to give up in 13 short years.
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More ranting. (See 1 below.)
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Old prosecutors meet and talk. (See 2 below.)
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Home on de-range? (See 3 below.)
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Trying to understand Trump. (See 4 below.)
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Dick
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1)To understand the trade war with China, you need to understand that China at the moment is having a major slowdown economically. The stock market is down 25%. Many banks are being bailed out by the government. Everything and everyone in China is way over levered, and the economy is therefore in a high risk position which the government was trying to fix. The trade war got in the way, forcing the government to subsidize the smaller banks. China is loaning tens of billions to countries like Pakistan to build ports and railroads and infrastructure. Problem is, these countries have zero possible way to ever repay these loans. So now they are faced with stopping the projects or asking the IMF to bail them out. It is a mess for China and the countries who took the loans. There is starting to be pushback against China for this. So, Trump’s timing to go after China is exactly right. They are in a weakened position right now. Ignore all the hype about how they could sell their $1.4 trillion of US Treasuries —to who??? Not going to happen. The whole world agrees China violates every rule on trade and steals IP. Trump is just the only one who is willing to take them on with the rest of the world cheering him on from the sidelines. Now it appears the EU is willing to cooperate with Trump and revise the WTO and to push China on IP and other trade violations. Something they were never willing to do before.
Can 4% GDP growth continue. Maybe. But 3.5% would be great. Remember the left, and the press saying in 2016 and early 2017, 2% was the new normal maximum, and the US was at its peak and we faced stagflation, economic decline, etc. 2% was the accepted number as what good growth would be. Larry Summers was right out there saying 4% was impossible. Some in the mainstream media and Wall St said getting above 2% was pure fantasy, and Trump was dreaming. So, as I have said often, ignore the talking heads, and the mainstream media. They all have an agenda. Almost none are objective. The tax bill and deregulation was a huge boost. The left just can’t admit it. There are even stories now in the press that 4% is really a bad thing??? 4% is great, it may not be 4% next quarter, but 3.5% would be terrific. If Trump really does a deal with the EU, Mexico and Canada, and then Japan, 3.5%, or better, is very realistic. Capital expenditures will ramp up further once the tariff issues subside and that uncertainty goes away. They say exports were hyped due to pending tariffs, but to do that, inventories were drawn down, so this quarter inventories will be rebuilt, pushing up GDP growth upward. The press does not want you to believe it because it means the Republicans win in November, so they will try to convince you otherwise. Even my very liberal economist friends admit privately to me that the economy is going to be booming for at least 6 more quarters. The key is to reelect Republicans to control Congress. Keep in mind Maxine Waters is chair of the finance committee if the Dems get control, and Nancy is speaker. Think about that combo, and the ability to get budgets and more tax reform done. It should drive you to the polls and to take all your friends with you to vote. What a trade Trump, and 4% GDP, or Maxine Waters.
If you want to understand Russia, and the whole gas pipeline issue--- gas and oil is 52% of Russia’s GDP. The GDP of Russia is slightly smaller than NY State, around $1.5 trillion. GDP per capita is only $8,748 in 2017. Far lower than in 2013. We heard this first hand when I was in Russia, but now the stats show it to be true. The standard of living in Russia is declining . 20% of the Russian budget goes to weapons and the army. So Trump is right- how can Germany build a new gas pipeline with Russia which will fund more weapons spending, when they are supposedly having sanctions because of weapons and Crimea. It is nuts. The gas line will provide Russia billions of new cash flow for weapons which are aimed at ----Germany. But Merkel also thought letting in over 1 million Muslims was also a great idea until the voters rebelled, and the rest of the EU voted right wing in response. Reality is Russia is now in economic decline due to lower oil prices and corruption. Defense spend was reduced this year. So what does Merkel want to do – build the pipeline to pay them more badly needed money. Trump is not out of line for his comments. The pipeline is the same as Obama paying Iran $150 billion just as their economy was tanking. Truth is Russia cannot afford to wage a real war in Europe now that Trump has forced NATO to materially up spending and readiness. . If Obama was still in power Putin could take over Baltic states and have only a few sanctions because under Obama NATO was militarily unable to react. That was why Putin felt he could go into Crimea with no big problem. Putin also knew he could continue his cyber war with no real consequences under Obama. Don’t believe the crap about Trump favors Putin, or they have something on him. It is more lefty nonsense. The US pays 71% of NATO costs. Germany pays less than 1.2% of their GDP for their own defense. We pay far more for Germany’s defense than Germany does, and they can afford to pay. Trump is right for making this a major issue. So in 2018, NATO and the US are upping spending on defense and Russia cannot keep up. Russia is forced to reduce spending because oil prices did not rise as much as Putin needed. Under Obama US defense spend went down from 2013 on, and Russia went up a lot, and China even more. Obama left us in very bad and weak shape vs our main adversaries. It was massive US defense spending by Reagan vs Russia, that won the cold war. The story now is very similar vs Russia and Iran. The best way to win a war is to far out spend the bad guys until they fold with no shots being fired. A strong offensive capability and willingness to use it (missiles fired at Syria) is the best defense. Putin and Xi got the message. Putin blew it by favoring Trump. The last thing he wanted was a much stronger US military and stronger, capable NATO.
Iran’s GDP is $439 billion, less than that of 14 states. And now it is tanking. Obama gave them $150 billion-34% of their GDP. Iran cannot compete with US and Israel. Israel is much smaller by population and has a GDP of $320 billion. With sanctions Trump is imposing, Iran is in real economic trouble, and cannot afford a war with us, the Sunnis and Israel. The Obama nuke deal just empowered Iran to go on an expansion into Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon. Now Israel and the US are pushing back with the help of the Sunnis. Reimposing sanctions will severely cripple Iran and they will likely try to attack shipping in the straits and the Red Sea. It will end very badly for them now that the Sunnis, Israel and the US are teamed up, the US military is being rebuilt, Sadr is pushing back on Iran trying to control Iraq, and the Iranian people are protesting and ready to revolt. The entire Mideast situation is going to change by year end when sanctions go back into effect. Iran will run out of money to continue their expansion. What is astonishing is Merkel and the EU prefer to try to get around the US sanctions and trade with Iran instead of cooperating with us and destroying the regime. And the press thinks Trump acts badly with the EU??? The EU doesn’t pay for their own defense and they favor Iran.
The US economy is on a roll. It will be strong well into 2019 and maybe into 2020. The stock market will go up. Just be patient. Bond prices will decline further. All equities will continue to work. They will resolve trade in the next 90 days. Before November. NAFTA will get revised. WTO will get revised. Putin is in no economic shape to invade anyone, or do another Syria. He is now motivated to try to work with Trump. If oil prices stay around where they are, Russia is hurting. Q3 GDP will be over 3%. This is like under Reagan. Trump will bury Putin in military spending and Putin will have to concede on some issues. It will just take time. It took Reagan three years. If the rei is no pipeline, Russia is in more trouble. Farm products in the EU will still be a big problem. Macron cannot give in on this and stay in office. From here on it is all about China, and how Xi can give in and not lose face.
Bottom line, a very strong US economy and big defense spending will overwhelm Russia and Iran. A strong economy, allowing big defense spending, matters a lot in terms of geopolitics. The price of oil is strategic, not just economic.
Hillary wipes her server, destroys her mobile phones, paid a foreign spy and Russia for false crap on Trump, the FBI uses it improperly for a FISA warrant, the DNC still never turned over their server, DOJ won’t give Congress the files, Hilary and Debbie manipulated the primary to keep Bernie from winning, and the media is all in a dither about ---trumpets blare please----did Don Jr tell his father there was to be a meaningless meeting with some Russian lawyer that lasted 20 minutes about adoptions. Maybe I missed the point. The press seems to think whether Don Jr told his father is the key to collusion. And now Mueller wants to examine Trump’s tweets about Sessions who is recused, to see if Trump obstructed justice by attacking Sessions who is recused, and Comey who has proven to be a liar and should have been fired day one??? It is pretty clear Mueller is hard up if he is trying to claim tweets about someone who is recused are obstruction. And now the Dems want to let illegal aliens- non citizens --vote, but they claim Trump conspired with a foreign power about the vote. What was it I missed here. And the press wonders why Trump is frustrated that he cannot end this madness.
Nicky Haley will be elected president in 2024 She will be the first woman president. Mark it down
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2)Old Prosecutors Speaking Frankly
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++About once a year the Society of Old Prosecutors meets in a private libation spot the name of which I am honor bound not to disclose. We met to discuss the week’s events and, as long as I don’t name the participants, I was given permission to share some of the talk. (Given the mad-dog operations of the Special Counsel some feared that to publicly state their views they’d be subject to midnight FBI raids with their nightgown-garbed wives rousted from bed and felt up by armed agents, or all their assets seized and their private correspondence unrelated to anything handed over to Democratic spinners like Lanny Davis to be megaphoned on CNN.)Lawyer 1: The President is denying his former lawyer Cohen’s claim that he approved the meeting in Trump Tower. Funny that meeting, isn’t it? I mean, why did Loretta Lynch allow Natasha Veselnitskaya to have a special visa to enter the country and why did Natasha choose as her translator Anatoli Samochornov, who for over a decade was a U.S. State Department Translator?’ I’ve handled far weaker entrapment cases.Lawyer 2: Funnier yet, the meeting was ostensibly to discuss Russian orphan adoption issues. But even if it had been to hear the dirt Russia had on Hillary, when and why and how would it be unusual or illegal for a campaign to want to hear dirt on a competitor? I mean, get real -- Hillary paid for the Dossier which was confected by an anti-Trump former UK spy whose sources were all Russian. Not since I read Alice in Wonderland as a kid, have I seen such an upside down universe.Lawyer 3: Now speaking of the Dossier, how much longer will the FISC continue in operation after having rubberstamped over and again widespread spying on a political campaign based on the most idiotic of warrants? I cannot imagine a regular court granting these and FISC was, we were told by most (but not the late Robert Bork) that it would provide greater protections for citizens against unwarranted privacy intrusions.Lawyer 1: DOJ and the FBI did some audacious tap dancing in those applications, didn’t they? Didn’t tell the Court they were relying on an unverified piece of campaign dirt gathering; didn’t tell the court it didn’t even know who the sources were that the author of the Dossier relied on. Used newspaper articles to justify the warrant! And then didn’t note that the articles were themselves part of Christopher Steele’s propaganda effort for Hillary. I’d have been disbarred had I ever tried such stunts.Lawyer 2: And that’s not all -- they twisted Carter Page’s history. For three years he acted as an informant and witness for the FBI and they reframed his history to make it seem he was “an agent of a foreign power who knowingly engaged in clandestine intelligence activity that may have involved criminal violations."We took a short break while we nibbled on some fine cheese with crackers and mango chutney. After the drinks were refreshed and the waiter left, the conversation continued.Lawyer 4: It’s not only the lies in the warrant applications and the brutish search techniques that fully explain how Stalinist this whole business is. Look at the latest indictments. He indicts some Russian companies thinking they’d never appear and there’d be no trial, One enters an appearance, denied the charges, notes how idiotic the indictment was, as among other things, its names a nonexistent corporation, and demands discovery. He indicts 12 Russian officials knowing he has no jurisdiction over them, they won’t appear and the case will never go to trial and as an extra bit of partisan play tosses into the indictment claim that “an unidentified candidate for U.S. Congress requested and received” dirt from a hack, allegedly by these Russians, from Guccifer to whom they’d given the hacked material.Lawyer 3: Trey Gowdy has demanded that Sessions hand over all the documentation respecting the identity of this person. I doubt he exists except in the imagination of the prosecution, or his name surely would have been leaked by now. And it’s indisputable that the government has never examined the “hacked” servers and technical experts insist that the speed of downloaded material makes certain it was not removed by a hack, but was an inside job by someone using a thumb drive.Lawyer1: Don’t forget the spying charge and arrest against Maria Butina.And we all roared.We’re in D.C., and know what you might have missed, the Washington Post articleabout this gal -- who was most certainly no undercover spy -- republished in the Chicago Tribune but pretty much ignored elsewhere. He pulled out his copy of the article about the alleged undercover spy and read excerpts aloud to roars of laughter.“‘Butina’s cellphone case was emblazoned with a famous photograph of Russia President Vladimir Putin riding shirtless on a horse. She would buy friends shots of vodka at Russia House, the Dupont Circle restaurant popular with the Russian diplomatic set, sometimes challenging male friends to down horseradish-infused shots, She bragged to classmates that she had worked for the Russian government.’”“’In November 2016, just three months after arriving, she hosted a “stars and Tsars”-themes costume party at Café Deluxe… Butina went as Empress Alexandra, the wife of the last emperor of Russia…’”Lawyer2: That’s a new definition of “Covert agent” isn’t it? Obviously the crack prosecution thought that because she was working with some gun advocates to help her campaign for a Second Amendment type shift in Russian gun laws, they could wrap the NRA into the Russian collusion ball of wax. I guess the tipoff she was an undercover spy was her attendance at the National Prayer Breakfast.I piped in my two cents: “Luckily for us, we have defense counsels, civil lawsuits, and congressmen like Nunes to chip away at the DOJ/FBI wall of obfuscation and cover-up. This week, Judge Ungaro ordered GPS Fusion to disclose details of its Dossier work -- how did they create it, conduct the investigation for it, and disseminate the dossier. That case comes about in a lawsuit against left-wing BuzzFeed that falsely reported that Aleksey Gubarev’s viruses and malware infiltrated the DNC networks. The source of the claim was the 17th memo in the Dossier, which made those claims and stated he had been working with Russian intelligence, claims Gubarev vehemently denies.And then there are the indefatigable guys at Judicial Watch.The FBI ordered Comey to preserve his records. This week they sought a court order requiring these records be preserved.Judicial Watch argues that there is reason to be concerned that the responsive records could be lost or destroyed.” Judicial Watch points out that in June 2018, the DOJ’s Inspector General stated, “We identified numerous instances in which Comey used a personal email account (a Gmail account) to conduct FBI business.”The filing comes in an April 2018 Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) lawsuit filed after the DOJ failed to respond to Judicial Watch’s May 2017 request and DCNF’s February 2018 request (Judicial Watch and The Daily Caller News Foundation v. U.S. Department of Justice (No. 1:18-cv-00967)). The lawsuit is seeking:
- All records written or ordered written by Comey summarizing his conversations with any of the following individuals: Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Senator Chuck Schumer, Representative Nancy Pelosi, and Senator John McCain.
- All records that identify and describe all meetings between former FBI Director James Comey and President Barack Obama.
“It is incredible that it took Judicial Watch’s prodding of the FBI for it to ask Mr. Comey to return federal records – over a year after he was fired,” said Judicial Watch President Tom Fitton. “Mr. Comey continues to be protected by the FBI and DOJ. It is outrageous that the agencies oppose a simple preservation order to make sure no Comey records are lost or destroyed.”It asked the FISC for transcripts of all the hearings before it on the DOJ warrants against Carter Page. If successful, this will further document the corrupt, dishonest way the warrants were obtained. Judicial watch details the reasons for the request:Last week, in response to a Judicial Watch FOIA lawsuit, the Department of Justice released 412 pages of heavily redacted documents relating to FISA warrants targeting Page. The warrants provide evidence that the FISA court was never told that the key information justifying the requests came from a minimally-corroborated “dossier” that was created by Fusion GPS, a paid agent of the Clinton campaign and Democratic National Committee.Judicial Watch initially sent a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request to the DOJ and then filed suit seeking the FISA transcripts (Judicial Watch v. U.S. Department of Justice (No. 1:18-cv-01050)). In a June 2018 letter, the Justice Department told Judicial Watch it had no Page FISA court hearing transcripts.[snip]In February, Republicans on the House Intelligence Committee released a memo criticizing the FISA targeting of Carter Page. The memo details how the “minimally corroborated” Clinton-DNC dossier was an essential part of the FBI and DOJ’s applications for surveillance warrants to spy on Page.On February 7, 2018, House Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes wrote a letter to Judge Rosemary M. Collyer, the presiding judge at the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC) requesting transcripts of “any relevant FISC hearings associated with the initial FISA application or subsequent renewals related to electronic surveillance of Carter Page.” On February 15, Judge Collyer replied that the FBI and DOJ “possess most, if not all, of the responsive materials the Court might possess, and we have previously made clear to the Department, both formally and informally, that we do not object to any decision by the Executive Branch to release any such FISA materials to Congress.”The Committee also asked the court to confirm the existence of transcripts of hearings regarding applications for or renewal of FISA warrants related to Page. Judicial Watch points out that Presiding Judge Rosemary M. Collyer did so, stating:[Y]ou may note that the Department of Justice possesses (or can easily obtain) the same responsive information the Court might possess, and because of separation of powers considerations, is better positioned than the Court to respond quickly. (We have previously made clear to the Department, both formally and informally, that we do not object to any decision by the Executive Branch to convey to Congress any such information.)In its motion, Judicial Watch points out “to date, no transcripts of hearings regarding applications for or renewal of FISA warrants related to Page have been released to the public.” And, it argues that potential concerns about classified information are likely unwarranted, since the president has declassified the congressional memo, and the FBI has released the FISA warrant applications, application renewals, and court orders related to Page: “Therefore, most -- if not all -- of the information contained in the transcripts likely has been declassified.”Lawyer 1: No doubt the FBI and DOJ have been working furiously to cover up malfeasance on the part of their former (and perhaps some present) officials and of the flaws in these agencie's procedures. We have to await the next report from the Inspector General to learn more about the misuse of FISA and the skullduggery involved in getting the warrant.Lawyer 2: “Still nothing from Sessions’ designated U.S. Attorney Huber.”Lawyer 3: “I think the president will eventually simply declassify the still redacted warrant applications. I think the last three indictments -- of the Russia corporations, the intelligence officials, and the alleged spy -- will not survive much longer.”I added, "these three seem to be a futile attempt to persuade the public that there’s a reason to continue this farce. There isn’t, of course. It’s been a means of harassing the new administration for the crime of beating Hillary and her Deep State enablers."At this point the club lights started to flicker and we had to leave, but it’s likely it won’t be our last meeting.
3) James Gavlik
This is an amusing and mostly accurate definition of Trump Derangement Syndrome and the ludicrous behavior and faulty rationale practiced by the progressive left and the never Trumpers...actually an entertaining, but somewhat disturbing, picture of what eight years of Buckwheat and an out of control and dishonest media has done to our country...
To all the people who let this election break up families and friends let this sink in I think the last civil conversations we had occurred just days before November 8, 2016. You were supremely confident Hillary Clinton would win the presidential election; you voted for her with glee. As a lifelong Republican, I bit down hard and cast my vote for Donald Trump. Then the unimaginable happened. He won.
And you lost your freaking minds.
I knew you would take the loss hard—and personally—since all of you were super jacked-up to elect the first woman president. But I did not imagine you would become totally deranged, attacking anyone who voted for Trump or supported his presidency as a racist, sexist, misogynistic, homophobic Nazi-sympathizer.
The weirdness started on social media late on Election Night, as it became clear Hillary was going to lose. A few of you actually admitted that you were cradling your sleeping children, weeping, wondering what to tell your kindergartner the next morning about Trump’s victory. It continued over the next several days. Some of you seriously expressed fear about modern-day concentration camps. Despite living a privileged lifestyle, you were suddenly a casualty of the white patriarchy. Your daughters were future victims; your sons were predators-in-waiting. You threatened to leave Facebook because you could no longer enjoy the family photos or vacation posts from people who, once friends, became Literal Hitlers to you on November 8 because they voted for Donald Trump.
I admit I was a little hurt at first. The attacks against us Trump voters were so personal and so vicious that I did not think it could be sustained. I thought maybe you would regain your sanity after some turkey and egg nog.
But you did not. You got worse. And I went from sad to angry to where I am today: Amused.
As the whole charade you have been suckered into over the last 18 months starts to fall apart—that Trump would not survive his presidency; he would be betrayed by his own staff, family, and/or political party; he would destroy the Republican Party; he would be declared mentally ill and removed from office; he would be handcuffed and dragged out of the White House by Robert Mueller for “colluding” with Russia—let me remind you what complete fools you have made of yourselves. Not to mention how you’ve been fooled by the media, the Democratic Party, and your new heroes on the NeverTrump Right.
On November 9, you awoke from a self-induced, eight-year-long political coma to find that White House press secretaries shade the truth and top presidential advisors run political cover for their boss. You were shocked to discover that presidents exaggerate, even lie, on occasion. You became interested for the first time about the travel accommodations, office expenses, and lobbyist pals of administration officials. You started counting how many rounds of golf the president played. You suddenly thought it was fine to mock the first lady now that she wasn’t Michelle Obama. Once you removed your pussy hat after attending the Women’s March, you made fun of Kellyanne Conway’s hair, Sarah Sanders’ weight, Melania Trump’s shoes, Hope Hicks’ death stare; you helped fuel a rumor started by a bottom-feeding author that U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley slept with Donald Trump. You thought it was A-OK that Betsy DeVos was nearly physically assaulted and routinely heckled. You glorified a woman who has sex on camera for a paycheck.
You have learned all kinds of new things that those of us who didn’t willfully ignore politics for the past eight years already knew. For example, we already knew that illegal immigrants were being deported and families were being separated.
Some of your behavior has been kinda cute. It was endearing to watch you become experts on the Logan Act, the Hatch Act, the Second Amendment, the 25th Amendment, and the Emoluments Clause. You developed a new crush on Mitt Romney after calling him a “sexist” for having “binders full of women.” You longed for a redux of the presidency of George W. Bush, a man you once wanted imprisoned for war crimes. Ditto for John McCain. You embraced people like Bill Kristol and David Frum without knowing anything about their histories of shotgunning the Iraq War.
Classified emails shared by Hillary Clinton? Who cares! Devin Nunes wanting to declassify crucial information of the public interest? Traitor!
But your newfound admiration and fealty to law enforcement really has been a fascinating transformation. Wasn’t it just last fall that I saw you loudly supporting professional athletes who were protesting police brutality by kneeling during the national anthem? Remember how you fanboyed a mediocre quarterback for wearing socks that depicted cops as pigs?
But now you sound like paid spokesmen for the Fraternal Order of Police. You insist that any legitimate criticism of the misconduct and possibile criminality that occured at the Justice Department and FBI is an “attack on law enforcement.” While you once opposed the Patriot Act because it might have allowed the federal government to spy on terrorists who were using the local library to learn how to make suitcase bombs, you now fully support the unchecked power of a secret court to look into the phone calls, text messages and emails of an American citizen because he volunteered for the Trump campaign for a few months.
Spying on terrorists, circa 2002: Bad. Spying on Carter Page, circa 2017: The highest form of patriotism.
And that white, male patriarchy that you were convinced would strip away basic rights and silence any opposition after Trump won? That fear has apparently been washed away as you hang on every word uttered by James Comey, John Brennan, and James Clapper. This triumvirate is exhibit “A” of the old-boy network, and represents how the insularity, arrogance, and cover-your-tracks mentality of the white-male power structure still prevails. Yet, instead of rising up against it, you are buying their books, retweeting their Twitter rants and blasting anyone who dares to question their testicular authority. Your pussy hat must be very sad.
But your daily meltdowns about Trump-Russia election collusion have been the most entertaining to observe. After Robert Mueller was appointed as Special Counsel, you were absolutely convinced it would result in Trump’s arrest and/or impeachment. Some of you insisted that Trump wouldn’t last beyond 2017. You quickly swallowed any chum tossed at you by the Trump-hating media on MSNBC, the New York Times and the Washington Post about who was going down next, or who would flip on the president.
For the past year, I have watched you obsess over a rotating cast of characters: Paul Manafort, Donald Trump, Jr., Jared Kushner, Carter Page, Reince Priebus, Jeff Sessions, Michael Flynn, Steve Bannon, Sam Nunberg, and Hope Hicks are just a few of the people you thought would turn on Trump or hasten his political demise. But when those fantasies didn’t come true, you turned to Michael Avenatti and Stormy Daniels for hope and inspiration. It will always be your low point.
Well, I think it will be. Each time I believe you’ve hit bottom, you come up with a new baseline. Perhaps defending the unprecedented use of federal power to spy on political foes then lie about it will be the next nail in your credibility coffin.
The next several weeks will be tough for you. I think Americans will learn some very hard truths about what happened in the previous administration and how we purposely have been misled by powerful leaders and the news media. I wish I could see you as a victim here, but you are not. I know you are smart; you chose to support this insurgency with your eyes wide open.
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4) Trump's Strategy - Five Rules
By Daniel Greenfield
It’s the middle of 2018. And after spilling several small rivers of black ink (digital and virtual) analyzing, smearing, belaboring, insulting and fact checking President Trump, the media still doesn’t understand him.
That’s not surprising. The media has been writing about America for much longer than that and has even less of a clue about how people live outside its preciously hip urban and suburban bubbles.
But there are 5 simple rules for understanding President Trump. They define how he’s lived his life until now. And what still drives him at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. If you understand them, you will get what he’s doing. If you don’t, there’s always a job waiting at the New York Times.
1. Act, Don’t React
Trump hates reacting, he loves taking the initiative and forcing others, rivals, competitors, media syndicates or foreign dictators, to react to him. That’s the essence of strategy and he nails it the way few have.
When UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson muttered that there was a “method to his madness”, that was it.
The method is becoming the driving force in an escalating conflict. Instead of reacting to attacks, Trump forces his attackers to react to him. He takes the initiative and leaves his opponents sputtering.
That’s how he became the President of the United States. It’s what he’s doing internationally.
By acting, Trump takes control of each encounter. What happens next may not be ideal, but Trump cares more about maintaining the initiative than about forcing a specific outcome.
He doesn’t see politics as a chess match, but as a boxing match. He doesn’t get locked into predetermined goals. Instead he lets the kinetic confrontation create opportunities by exploiting his opponent’s reactions.
Picking a fight with the North Korean dictator, led to a peace summit. A trade war with China has already led to some serious concessions. A trade shoving match with Europe and Canada offers potential wins.
Unlike previous administrations, Trump isn’t satisfied with the status quo. And that means that he tries a lot of things.
That takes us to Rule 2.
2. Try Everything
Critics have poked fun at Trump’s failed business ventures. But you don’t succeed without trying and failing.
Trump is comfortable with failure. He knows that if you’re willing to knock on 100 doors, you might get 1 sale. His approach to politics is trying a lot of different approaches and policies to get to a win.
When Obama expressed a willingness to meet with dictators and terrorists, it’s because he was already sympathetic to them. The seeds of the Iran deal were always in him. The negotiations just took him where he already wanted to be.
Trump however isn’t meeting with Kim Jong-un because he likes him. He’s doing it because it might pay off. Or it won’t and then he’ll try something else.
Obama needed Iran. Trump doesn’t need North Korea. He can take it or leave it. He’s hungry for wins, but he also sees the potential for them everywhere so he doesn’t overcommit to any individual deal.
Political professionals scoff at that scrappy attitude. They insist on the importance of posture and position. Trump knows all about posture and position, but he refuses to be its prisoner. He can insult Kim one day and flatter him the next. Politics is just business with countries instead of companies.
Trump’s approach is the same to both politics and business. Do whatever it takes to get the deal. And then decide if the deal is worth taking.
3. Chaos is Power
Most people want to minimize chaos. Countries and companies spend fortunes, fight wars and dedicate decades to reducing chaos. Trump however thrives on chaos. Instead of trying to control chaos, he generates it, causing uncertainty and then offering a sense of security in exchange for a good deal.
That’s what Trump is doing with trade. It’s what he did to China and North Korea.
Trump tries everything (Rule 2) and escalates confrontations (Rule 1) so that his opponents have no way to counter him except by escalating the confrontation and creating more chaos. And then Trump forces them to negotiate by proving he can function in a chaotic and uncertain situation better than they can.
That’s how he got North Korea to the table. After decades of the Norks intimidating previous administrations by creating chaos with their threats, Trump topped those threats. The media warned that a nuclear war would break out. Instead China and North Korea chose a peace summit.
The summit may come to nothing, but Trump had already broken the Nork ability to intimidate us.
China, Europe and Canada don’t want a trade war. They have nothing to gain and plenty to lose. By creating economic chaos, Trump also became the only man who can end the chaos and restore security.
Chaos is power.
When the United States became a world power, its administrations emphasized stability over everything. Trump welcomes chaos because it’s a much more effective negotiating strategy. Entities that seek order can be intimidated with chaos. But politicians who seek chaos can’t be intimidated.
Trump doesn’t seek order. He wants victory.
4. Never Show Your Hand
Conventional politicians have a narrow window of agenda items. They’re very clear on what they want, what they don’t want, what they’re willing to do and what they’re willing to give up to get it.
Trump has always been ambiguous. Parse his sentences and you can read them three different ways. Each assertion eventually uncovers a contradiction. That’s confusion. Tactical confusion.
As Trump has mentioned plenty of times, he loves being unpredictable.
Trump is the only president in a century who is able to go into negotiations with a completely unpredictable outcome. And the roster of competing figures around him only creates more chaos.
To truly create chaos (Rule 3), you have to be unpredictable. That creates insecurity. It forces your opponents to read things into every move you make. And then to be stymied by the futility of it.
Ambiguity leaves the other side unable to assess what the United States would actually settle for. Instead it ends up offering far more than we would settle for just to restore that sense of security.
Trump is the most famous man in the world. And yet his decision-making remains mysterious.
5. Don’t Be Afraid to be the Bad Guy
If Americans have a fatal flaw, a weakness that undermines our domestic and international politics, it’s a need to be liked. Most other countries don’t wonder whether the rest of the world likes them.
Blame Hollywood, dime novels or comic books, but as Americans we see ourselves as the heroes. And our enemies, foreign and domestic, know that they can break us by making us question our goodness.
It’s how they did it in Vietnam, in Iraq and too many foreign policy debates to count.
One of Trump’s great strengths is that he’s not afraid to be the bully, the heavy and the jerk. He can flatter Kim Jong-un, Trudeau and any other leader. Or call them names.
He can say shocking things and take unacceptable positions if it gets him what he wants.
That’s the attribute that upsets and infuriates Never Trumpers. But it also gives the United States far more negotiating leverage and
freedom than it ever had before. And that’s why the people chose him.
Trump embodied all the things that had been going unsaid and all the truths that needed telling.
Past presidents valued their personal relationships with foreign leaders. But Trump is willing to throw a punch at the boy band leader of Canada if it gets a farmer in Wisconsin a better deal for his dairy.
On the global stage, President Trump has forced North Korea, China, Europe and Canada to react to him. He’s trying everything. He’s creating chaos. He’s hiding his hand and he’s winning.
The media shouts that Trump is isolated. If he were isolated, the world wouldn’t be revolving around him. The world doesn’t stop when Putin or China’s Jinping issue a statement. But a single Trump tweet can upend the priorities of international diplomacy for days, weeks and even months.
Trump isn’t reacting to the world. The world is reacting to him.
And as long as he can keep the world reacting to him, he’s the one setting the agenda for the world.
Daniel Greenfield, a Shillman Journalism Fellow at the David Horowitz Freedom Center, is an investigative journalist and writer focusing on the radical left and Islamic terrorism
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