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Ross Rants:
The Ross Rant
Don’t let a 5% correction get you upset. The economy is coming back strong based on August retail sales and factory activity. The retail number ex autos was far better then expected. Delta is going away. US cases last week down 19% after down 26% week before. Home sales are still robust, and prices are still rising. Despite the recent volatility in the stock market, stock prices remain high, which means 401K values are still high for everyone. High home values, high 401k values, relatively low credit card and other debt, low interest mortgages for almost everyone, 11 million unfilled jobs, and banks overflowing with cash and capital, and we have a very good picture, other than inflation which is eating into all the wage increases of the low income workers. So what do the Dems want to do, pass $6.7 trillion of new spending, $5.5+ on the big bill and $1.25 on sort of infrastructure. That is the last thing the economy needs. The bills create a combo of high taxes making US companies uncompetitive again and driving jobs offshore, making wage growth stall, ending the major new spending by corporations other than to increase productivity and replace humans, and increasing inflation, causing the stock market to tank reducing 401K values, raising interest rates, and slamming small business and farmers, and drug companies, thereby tanking the economy. The bill as set forth is not going to pass, nor are all the tax increases. The BK of the Chinese property company will not impact the US.
Natural gas prices are heading to historic highs due to a range of factors. The EU has a 24% shortfall in inventories, largely due to wind generation not meeting needs and gas fired utilities having to be fired up. US inventories are also lower than needed. And it is not yet winter. This will be a hit to any chance for lower inflation over the winter.
Virtually everything Biden claimed in his speech about taxes and the economy on Thursday afternoon was a flat out lie. Pretty much nothing he said is backed by facts. He even tried to claim the job market was very slow just prior to the outbreak of covid. That was the time when unemployment was at a record low 3.5% and nobody could find anyone to hire because anyone breathing was already working. I shut off the TV when he started with the successful people don’t pay our fair share BS. I just wrote a check for my quarterly estimated tax. I should send him the check and ask just how much is my fair share. My quarterly check is more than the bottom 40% of all people in the aggregate pay net of government aid for the full year. The top 1% earns only 21% of all income, but pays 40% of all income tax. The bottom 40% pays a negative 12% because they receive more in government benefits than they pay in taxes. The bottom 50% pays only 2.9% of all income tax. How am I not paying my fair share. And on top they want to raise cap gains tax. I believe the bill will fail, and be reduced to some number like $1.25 -$1.5 Tr except it matters how they count. They get to $3.5 by making believe some programs end in 3 years. It is all a big lie.
The longer it goes on, the more issues are creating problems for Pelosi. The more they try to find work arounds for this or that, the more absurd the tax proposals become. And few have even begun to address all the radical left wing socialist garbage in the bill. Let’s see what else the parliamentarian is willing to say no to. It is unclear if Biden even knows he is lying about all this. He and Pelosi just say whatever they think sells.
One key for the radicals is fining, or otherwise charging utilities who do not shift to renewables. This has run into the wall of reality called jobs and reliable power. This is one of the big issues that will stop the bill from passing. There are too many no votes on this because there is no good work around that does not raise energy costs substantially and costs millions of jobs. Then there is 4months of paid leave you pay for-that is right out of European Socialism.
The real issue of the bill is, it dramatically changes the work hard to earn money capitalism culture into stay home and you will receive a variety of money from the government for doing nothing. This bill destroys our culture.
By now you should know not to count on the Fed forecasts which are often wrong. They sometimes miss by a lot. Do not make your investment decisions based on what the Fed forecasts. Listen to several others, and then make your own conclusion. Reality is, there are so many big variables right now, like Delta, I do not know anyone who gets it all right. The best we can hope for is getting the trend correct, but specifics on GDP, inflation, etc is very hard to predict. Just one example-the cost to bring a single container from China to the US is now 14 times what it cost in 2019. Nobody knows what, if any tax bill passes. Black swans are swarming these days with Biden being so incompetent.
All the references to economic recovery relative to other recessions is completely irrelevant. There was nothing about the 2020 recession that bore any resemblance to past recessions. This was government mandated. It was the first and only one that had no financial or housing market cause, and the only one where the economy was solidly based. While the stock market crashed, that was an outcome, not a cause, and it was very short lived, followed by a series of record highs. The banks and brokerage firms were well capitalized and solid. The Fed stepped up immediately, as did the government, with a flood of cash into the capital markets and the economy. Zero rates along with massive liquidity was key to preventing a real recession and market crash. PPP, along with the earlier subsidies, meant most people were not just OK, but poverty actually declined by 2%. Thanks to PPP and work from home technology, high unemployment was not the disaster it would have been, and it did not last long.
In fact, had Congress not passed the last $1.2 trillion spend with the $300, plus child subsidy, plus rent and foreclosure protections and subsidies, and student loan suspension, and all the rest, we might be back much closer to 3.5% now. Of the $5.9 trillion already passed by Congress, $1.3 trillion remains unspent- exactly the amount of the last Democratic spending bill. One key to markets and rapid recovery was the ability of Treasury to directly deposit subsidies into individual bank accounts so the money got where needed immediately. PPP took a bit longer, but it also got sorted out pretty fast given it was a new program never tried before, so they had to create rules and procedures on the fly. Since there was no place to spend the flood of money and ongoing salaries, consumers repaid credit cards and other debt to relatively low levels, and savings are at a historic high. All this means the economy and stock market should boom, unless they pass the tax and spend monster which would kill the golden goose. It all comes down to the this week in Congress, and it may not just be Manchin and Sinema. Word is that Biden failed to change Manchin’s mind. Now we need Sinema to remain a no vote. Manchin has always been bought off, but I think not this time. There are a lot of other things in the bill that moderates object to. Standby to maybe act on your portfolio.
And now we just pissed off France who we need badly in Africa. So much for rebuilding allied relations.
Your chance of dying from Covid is a fraction -1in 137,000, of your risk of dying from a dog bite or bee sting-1 in 59,500.
Just when you forgot about Durham-he pops up. Let’s see what else he comes with. This is probably just baby step one. I do not believe he spent two years to just do this one minor indictment. It will get much better from here.
What has become clear is that Biden thinks lying is normal, and he will do so on just about everything. After all his years in the Senate, and with Obama, he likely does not know what truth is, and he thinks it is all about creating perception that everything he does is wonderful, just as he told the president of Afghanistan to do. He actually makes Trump look OK about lying. He has done all he can to avoid Afghanistan even though 100 or more Americans are still trapped there, and now he got 7 kids killed by mistake. Now we know the commander on the ground told Biden not to pull out or it would be disastrous. He said keep Bagram and the other bases. Instead of tens of thousands more troops as Biden claims, they could easily have done it with maybe another 2,000-2500, and stepped up air support. Everyone will get a booster on Sept 20- Oh wait, the FDA said no. Blinken lied about virtually everything as well. Especially saying that the allies were fully in favor- that was a blatant lie. And now we have Milley who was known as a go with the wind guy, and Austin who was known as second rate, but he qualified black. Almost nobody in the administration has ever held a real job, and they are almost all retreads from the Obama years, or are there only because they are black, Latino, gay or whatever, other than successful white male from the private sector. None of them has a clue what it is to work in a company, or to build a business, or to have to earn a return on investment. None knows what it means to take risks to start or build a business. None has ever developed real estate. Few served in war. They are professional bureaucrats and political operatives.
The White House is trying to make believe Afghanistan is over, but now we find out the drone strike was a mistake. Clearly Biden told the military find people to kill so we would look like we struck back. So they accidently killed 7 kids in the rush to kill someone. This is on Joe along with the 13 dead American heroes. So much for over the horizon attacks.
General Jack Keene said he spoke directly with Milley, and it may not be true that he told China he would warn them of an attack. We need the transcripts. Keene said the press has blown this totally out of proportion. However, what is true is that Pelosi called Milley and supposedly screamed at him to make sure Trump could not order any actions including a nuclear attack. Milley should have told her she was out of line calling him, and she had no constitutional authority. Instead he ordered his review of nuclear protocols with the Pentagon senior generals in response to Pelosi. This is a major breach of authority by Pelosi, and a very dangerous violation. We cannot have the speaker of the House giving orders to the military. Milley needs to resign.
Why did Republicans lose GA. Trump bears much blame, but so does McConnell for not pushing through the $2000 subsidies. Had he done so, some very knowledgeable people think the R’s would have won. That may be correct as that payment was a major issue once Trump stupidly said he was for it, and the Dems grabbed onto it as theirs.
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