%20(1)%20(4)%20(1)%20(1).jpg)
.jpg)
.jpg)
.jpg)
.jpg)
.jpg)
.jpg)
.jpg)
.jpg)
+++
How the US can roll back Iran — without going to war -
+++
'Checkmate is inevitable; any defeat in the war will lead to changes in Russia' -
+++
“Israel Has Surrendered to Hezbollah!” -
+++
+++
Soros-Backed DA Wants to Protect Criminal Illegal Migrants From Deportation
BY Sarah Arnold
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Pulling up roots: What a community loses when small businesses can’t survive
BY SALENA ZITO
PITTSBURGH — It is 9:30 on a Saturday morning in the Strip District, and Penn Avenue is humming with people from all across the region choosing their favorite ethnic foods or having breakfast with family and friends. Café Raymond is a favorite destination and, as usual, both floors, the balcony and the sidewalk tables at the diner are packed with patrons.
None of the people waiting for his signature stack of ricotta pancakes stuffed with blueberries, his home-cured smoked salmon and caper platter or his savory sunny-side-up egg and brisket hash have any idea the man behind the kitchen counter — Ray Mikesell — has placed his beloved restaurant up for sale. He’s calling it quits two decades after he returned home from Baltimore to raise his children and carve out a life in Pittsburgh.
Through tears he says he simply has had enough — not of his customers, not of creating new dishes or specialized drinks, but of all the uncertainty that has dogged nearly every small businessman in the country since the beginning of the pandemic.
“It started with COVID and just over time, the uncertainty, the stress of trying to stay open, the inability to hire people, the underlying tension in society, the inflationary cost of everything you need to purchase to create quality food, that is, if you can get it…” he says, his voice trailing. He stops and pauses to hold it together.
The food costs are crushing him, he said, but so is the cost of doing business, period. His utility bills have skyrocketed, as has the cost of fuel to pick up fresh meats and vegetables from local farms or to deliver food for catering jobs. The costs are crippling, he says, and they are creating a barrier to investing in a business he has loved for so long.
“It just breaks you down no matter how strong you are,” said Mr. Mikesell.
Ray Mikesell was the example of the small business owner who did everything right during the pandemic. He shut down when Gov. Tom Wolf ordered him to. He offered to-go meals as soon as he was allowed. He offered larger dinners on Sundays for families to take home to have some semblance of normalcy. He fed the homeless. He fed refugees. He packaged and delivered free meals for the local food bank for weeks.
In the beginning, his full-time staff of 18 shrank at times to just him, his teenage daughter, Emily, and his son, Ray, a talented chef in his own right.
Two years later, Mr. Mikesell is operating the same brisk business he did before the pandemic — except with only six people, which means his days begin at 4:30 a.m. and end at 8:30 p.m,. and he is on his feet the entire time.
Mr. Mikesell isn’t alone in his struggled to find workers: There are more than 11 million unfilled jobs across every business sector nationwide. Small businesses are especially desperate for workers, including for positions that do not require high school diplomas.
“I ran an ad for a manager in Pittsburgh for $55,000 with full benefits for months; no one even applied,” Mr. Mikesell said.
“My last ad for servers, I had 77 applicants that sent a resume — and not one of them showed up for an interview or took a job. Not one of them. They answer you and say they’re coming. You schedule a time, and they say they’re coming. They’ll have contact with you for two or three emails. And then they just never show,” he said.
Mr. Mikesell finds himself mopping floors now and cleaning tables. “It’s not that that’s below me — I got other things to do. I got to run my business, and I got to clean when I’m done or when they all leave. The few people I do have, I got to do it anyways because it’s just half-ass.”
He isn’t alone in calling it quits. Hundreds of thousands of small businesses like his — diners, restaurants, hair salons, machine shops, small goods stores, mechanics — all shuttered in the past two years when the government started paying people not to work. “And they never returned,” Mr. Mikesell said. “They just disappeared into thin air — and I pay very well.”
Up and down Penn Avenue on a crisp Monday morning before the shops started opening, it was hard to find one that didn’t have a sign seeking workers. Luckily, some of the legacy stores at least have family members to shoulder the burden.
Small businesses are the heart of this country: Their owners are the risk takers, the ones who never take a day off, or a vacation. They are also, collectively, the largest employers in the country, according to the Small Business Administration, which reports that small businesses are 99.9% of U.S. businesses and employ 47.1% of workers.
The average customer here has no idea of the stress and struggle most of these shop owners have endured over the past two years, trying to stay open as they watched profits plummet, trying to provide the same quality service they always had, trying to have the products that people expect, all the while trying to keep a smile on their face.
Now inflation is being layered on top of these stressors. The quarterly MetLife and U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index, released last week, found concern for inflation among small business owners reached an historic new high, with 90% saying they are concerned about the impact of inflation on their business.
That same index showed 71% of small businesses believe the worst is still yet to come.
Tom Sullivan, Vice President of Small Business Policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said in recent quarters there had been some optimism from small businesses who felt good about how their businesses were doing, but “inflation is really hitting small business hard, and that reality is negatively impacting their confidence, their ability to hire, invest in their businesses, and grow.”
Just like consumers, 83% of small businesses in the Chamber survey cite rising prices as a significant issue. Even more, 88%, say they are worried about an imminent economic downturn.
As for Mr. Mikesell, his contribution to the region included his monthly Sunday Suppers that brought people together in a way many hadn’t felt since childhood.
“I had wanted to bring back the kind of Sunday suppers I had as a child, the kind where the rich aroma of the meal filled the neighborhood and the anticipation of dinner and being with family was almost as good as the meal itself,” he said. “It was loud; there were often boisterous disagreements, but no one was sitting with an iPhone in their face — everyone eventually laughed and loosened their belts.”
He said he suspected others also missed that kind of gathering, so he decided to make Sunday Suppers part of his cafe’s offerings.
“I set a large table here at the restaurant, cooked like my Grandma, meaning way too much food, five courses to be exact, prayed, sent a message around by word of mouth — no social media, no texting — about a week ahead of time and just hoped people would show up.”
He set the table for 40 people and cooked — as any Italian worth their salt — for 80.
Lucky he did, because that is exactly how many people showed up: 80 strangers suddenly in wonderful boisterous conversation over an incredible meal. And right before everyone’s eyes a community was formed.
It was an event that grew to well over 160 people, and Mr. Mikesell started having to turn people away — until COVID. It was his proudest moment as a small business owner.
Mr. Mikesell has an exit plan: He’s pulling up his roots, his family and his talents and heading west.
“I am moving to Montana. I’m going to go open another place. I’d rather be there,” he said. “But two things: one is I don’t want to be in a city no more, doing business. Two is I don’t want to work like this no more. I could go just do something and make a lot of money too, but I’d rather do my own thing for a while. It’s all the right reasons, not the wrong reasons.”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
https://www.wsj.com/articles/free-speech-is-the-most-fundamental-american-value-constitution-day-first-amendment-political-unity-communism-values-11664560788?mod=opinion_lead_pos10
Free Speech Is the Most Fundamental American Value
By Laurence H. Silberman
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
VIEWS OF A PROFESSIONAL INVESTOR. THERE IS MUCH TO COMMEND HIS VIEWPOINT. WHAT GOES DOWN DOES RISE AND IN EVERY INSTANT GOES TO NEW HIGHS BECAUSE GROWTH IS ALWAYS A FACTOR THAT DRIVES EARNINGS AND, EVENTUALLY, STOCK PRICES.
HAVING SAID THAT, THIS IS A COME ON INTERVIEW TO SELL INVESTMENT REPORTS AND THEY ARE ALL THE SAME. THAT SAID, DECLINES CREATE OPPORTUNITIES IF ONE CAN SHIFT THEIR FOCUS FROM BEING SCARED TO BEING OPPORTUNISTIC.
AND:
ANOTHER PROFESSIONAL INVESTOR'S THOUGHT. I DO NOT AGREE THAT XI/CHINA WILL MOVE ON TAIWAN SO SOON:
"The Coming War with China" – WSJ
On August 4, the Wall Street Journal published an essay titled "The Coming War Over Taiwan."
It said:
"For the past decade, China's factories have churned out ammunition and put warships to sea faster than any country since World War II.
The People's Liberation Army (PLA) regularly practices missile strikes on mock-ups of Taiwanese ports and U.S. aircraft carriers...
The regime has issued bloodcurdling threats toward the island and countries that might come to its aid. "Those who play with fire will perish by it," Mr. Xi told President Joe Biden last month.
Senior U.S. officials warn that China may attack Taiwan in the coming months...
No one can say you didn't see it coming.
Here are 4 stocks that will be critical when the Chinese do make their move >>> |
 |
Dylan Jovine |
+++
Dear Richard
The economy is starting to grind to a halt.
The Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates five times already.
And it’s promised more pain to come.
There’s a real fear of a recession. (Gulp!
And stocks … well, they’ve taken it on the chin
All three indexes — Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are off 20% to 30% — with more downside on the horizon.
Yes, the bear market has come to Wall and Broad Street.
At this point you might be asking…
“Hey Charles, why the *@#* are you calling this great news?”
The answer is simple: Because this ain’t my first rodeo.
In fact, this is my fifth bear market, and I know how this movie ends.
Here’s what’s happening now:
Scene No. 1: Investors see stocks continuing to fall.
Scene No. 2: They dump their shares willy-nilly.
Scene No. 3: They swear off ever owning stocks again.
Scene No. 4: And then — the nail in the coffin — they put their money in a T-bill.
Stick with me, because there’s a happy ending to this movie for YOU…
Because right now, great companies are trading for pennies on the dollar.
So, smart investors can buy them by the bucketful.
When the bear market dies and a bull market starts again
Stocks will soar to new highs.
And THAT is how fortunes are made
Can you see why I’m smiling now?
Bear markets are like manna from heaven if you know where to look
And I’m ready to help you get started.
You won’t find better bargains than the ones I’m going to show you in this video
And when the market opens tomorrow, be ready to take action on these three stocks.
You’ll thank me when you do
Kind regards,
Turn Your Images On
Charles Mizrahi
Founder, Alpha Investor
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Honest Reporting Rebuilding Trust in Media
Why is the European Union Funding Palestinian Propaganda Tours to the West Bank?
A group of 11 European journalists was recently invited on a six-day tour of Jerusalem and the West Bank in a trip that was ostensibly aimed at briefing them on the kind of aid the European Union and its member states give to the Palestinian people.
Organized by the Office for the European Union Representative in Jerusalem, the EU-funded invitation was only extended to those journalists who were prepared to submit a one-page declaration that explained why they wanted to participate and how they would use the trip to inform their work.
The request, which appeared to be an indirect way of pre-vetting future published pieces, was an early indicator of what kind of press trip this would turn out to be: a fully-fledged, pro-Palestinian propaganda tour.
+++
Media Print Viral Libel That Palestinian Boy 'Died of Fear' After Being 'Chased' by IDF
The September 29 death of Rayan Suleiman, a 7-year-old Palestinian child who died under unknown circumstances following Israeli military activity in the West Bank town of Teqoa, has dominated international headlines in recent days.
Responding to unsubstantiated Palestinian accusations that IDF soldiers "chased the boy to death," US State Department deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel has called for a "thorough and immediate investigation."
The IDF goes to great lengths to avoid harming civilians, and every innocent casualty is a tragedy. Yet the media, in their apparent quest to promote a "blame Israel first" narrative, have failed to uphold their professional obligation to scrutinize the facts.
+++++++++++++++++++++++
The Ross Rant™ ©Joel Ross 2022
Happy New Year to all my Jewish friends. It is going to be a very rough year with major geopolitical and US political upheaval, but we will get through this as we always do.
Are we having fun yet. The down is not done yet. What happened last week was Powell forced everyone to wake up to reality. Inflation is not going away soon, there will be a lot more job losses, and 401K and home prices are headed down. Powell is going by the Volker mantra- “Don’t give up”. He is determined to stop inflation. One problem I mentioned months ago is, Biden appointed two diversity members of the FMOC who have no real understanding of monetary policy. They were terrible choices, but that is what happens when you select by skin color and not monetary experience and merit. ` In fact, neither does Powell. He was an investment banker, not a monetary policy expert. When the US does anything on monetary policy, the whole world is affected. There is nobody on the board who has the sort of experience in international, nor economic policy, that we really need right now. The staff is a bunch of PhD theory wonks, who have never worked in the real world, which is why the Fed never gets it right about inflation, the economy or currencies. There is a big difference between book smarts and real world experience. Some think the Fed is now going to overdo it, and they may. However, Powell is right, they need to crush inflation, or it will just be 1980 all over again, and to do that now will mean a recession that is worse than most predict. Most of the Street has been consistently wrong on what is happening. Goldman has completely missed the boat, by a lot. Dimon’s economic hurricane is now coming ashore. A lot of people on the Street, or in wealth management, just do not have the broad world experience needed to see all the aspects. Some of you have a better set of experiences to make better judgements about what is happening. Keep in mind fund managers make money by getting you to invest in their fund, so they are rarely bears who say best to be in cash. Same for Goldman and others. They want everyone to invest and trade so they make fees. So consider the source and their agenda. I have no agenda, and am selling nothing. I don’t market the Rant.
Oil is getting hit due to the recession and the rising dollar. Just be patient. OPEC will cut production and there is no new development to produce enough oil to meet demand when the economies recover. This is a long term play with high dividends in the meantime.
Major tech companies have plans in place for every department to have layoffs, but they have all agreed to wait to announce it until after the election so the Dems don’t look bad. The rail contract is far from done. The vote has been set to drag past election day just in case there is a strike.
The currencies of India, Philippines and Thailand are at risk of devaluation. Defaults on US dollar denominated Asian bonds is growing. The dollar is likely to continue to rise as more cash comes to the US from the EU, Asia and China for safety. It may not be a replay of the Asian collapse of 1997, but it might get nasty. The Fed does not care that much about Asia-it cares about stopping inflation here, which will take more time. As loans in the US come due they will be faced with needing more equity infusions to cover the gap in refi proceeds. Opportunities in 2023 for rescue capital. Natural gas prices will rise further and heating oil is very expensive. Utility rates are rising, and will go up more. The massive shortage of oil inventories is not getting better despite recession cutting demand. The shortfall is huge and they also need to replace the SPR which is far below the minimum. Oil prices will go back up and oil stocks will go back up in October/November. There is no choice. Gas prices are now rising again. There will be more factory production slowdowns in the EU as energy costs continue to climb. The new package of tax cuts and other incentives in the UK is a positive start, but it also means bigger deficits that drives the pound lower, so makes it harder to beat inflation. The UK is already officially in recession. Truss is doing the right policies now, but it takes time to reverse all the damage Boris did. They have a long and very tough road ahead, and now it is possible there will be more strikes as UK unions are notoriously problematic.
All this just means the US stock market goes lower, and maybe much lower. Now the Street thinks the Fed will overdo it. Translation, Wall St sees possible big losses, and is trying to pressure the Fed to back off and help get stocks back up. Not going to happen. Keep in mind, the Street has been totally wrong about what the Fed will do, they have been totally wrong about inflation, and now the analysts admit they don’t know what is happening. The Fed has also been totally wrong all year. Ignore all the rhetoric and make your own conclusions as to where inflation and the economy go from here. You will not be more wrong than Wall St or the Fed since they seem to have no idea. Just be clear, it gets worse from here for a while. Cash is king now, and oil will be rising again over the next years due to real shortages and no major new production.
One bit of good. Just 13% of the ICE-BAML bond index matures in the next 26 months, and rates on most are fixed at very low coupons, so defaults on corporates are unlikely to be a serious problem since there will not be a flood of maturing corporate bonds in the 24 months. Gross leverage levels are actually down from the post Covid peak and are back to pre-Covid levels. Since there has been a massive refinancing at very low rates over the past 2 years, the risk of default for rated corporates is low even in a bad recession. Debt cover is the best since the early 1990’s. Rated bonds in the 1-5 year maturity are likely going to be OK in general as to credit quality. That does not mean junk bonds are safe. They are a different rating and debt cover level. This also does not mean you should go out and buy corporate bonds now. As rates rise they will decline in price somewhat more. There are $50 Billion of leveraged loans held by banks that need to be sold and they will go off at a loss.
One good difference this time is the sovereign institutions like the central banks have funded the excesses, and not consumers nor the mortgage market as in 2008. The Covid dollars allowed people to deleverage, and banks are in excellent capital condition now. That will make getting through it this time much less painful to many consumers. It is the Fed and the federal government that are way over extended instead. The bigger issue is central banks in other countries are way over extended, and companies in other nations are way over extended in US dollar denominated liabilities, bonds and loans, and that is where the crisis will happen. With the US dollar as the basis for much of international trade settlements, the Fed raising rates is pushing inflation out to other countries that cannot afford to pay in inflated dollars. Food, energy, fertilizer, commodities are now too expensive for them. Repaying dollar denominated loans becomes a major issue on maturity. It will get ugly.
On the weekend of August 14, 1971, Nixon held a meeting at Camp David to deal with the pending world financial crisis, inflation, the dollar, and the whole use of the Bretton Woods structure of one ounce of gold equals $35 as the base for the US dollar and foreign exchange. It strikes me there are major differences, but also some similarities to today with inflation, the dollar, and potential for a financial crisis created by the value of the dollar, and energy shortages. At that meeting was Schultz, Peterson, Volker, Connelly, Burns, Stein, Weinberger, Safire and a few others. Very smart, highly experienced, and sound thinkers all. Volker and Connelly and others had been working on developing options and action agendas for over a year. Can you imagine who Biden would have in such a meeting today. No comparison. Biden does not even admit there is a problem, let alone call such a meeting to try to head off the coming crisis.
You need to listen to the speech the new Italian prime minister gave. See link at bottom. Too bad we can’t have her be president.
The Republican Commitment To America is attached. It is very good as an agenda for what they specifically intend to do, and to run on. That is what was needed. The real initiator of this was Doug DeGroote who did the initial drafts which he asked me to edit. It has progressed a lot from the early drafts, but he is the one who deserves all the credit, not McCarthy. Doug invited me to be part of the final drafting meetings in DC, but I was unable to attend, but I did see the near final drafts for comment. The Republicans now have a real platform and agenda to contrast to the radical policies of the Dems.
Over the past three years governments at all levels have handed out trillions of subsidies to the poor and low income. When census reports poverty, and especially child poverty, they do not include all of the subsidy payments, so the Dems and press claim poverty is much worse than it really is, and we need more subsidies. In 2020 they reported that income was down 2.9% and poverty up 1%. They did not count that federal transfer payments were up 36% . Had they counted all transfer payments, the poverty rate would really have been 2% not the 9.1% they reported. The reporting method used by Census completely distorts the policy debate and press reporting. The real value of average subsidies per family in the bottom 20% is now $45,389, and that is just the federal part. Just the portion added in 2021 from Covid payments gave a low income family $24,000 in free non-taxed cash plus free medical care. That does not include all the non-cash subsidies like free cell phones for some. The cost to the government of each new enrollee in Medicaid last year was $33,000. And you wonder why there is a labor shortage and record inflation. Why work when the government supports you better than a job. But the Dems and press will still push for even more spending, except now they call it climate change instead of poverty. Real median post tax income for all people declined 1%, and for those with no children it declined 2.9%. Real wages declined 3.5%. Poverty these days is almost always due to dysfunction of the people, not lack of access to money. Mental health and drugs are the main issues, and neither is solved by giving away money. As a result of all the free money, the number of people actually working in the bottom 20% went from 68% in 1967 to 36% in 2017, and that was before the latest massive subsidies were made part of their income.
Putin’s nuke threat is just rhetoric. He will not be able to do it. He knows that would bring massive retaliation and destruction of the army, and an end to Russian standing in the world. NATO would attack in Ukraine and wipe out his ability to ever do anything again.
The protests in Iran seem different this time. More young people, more protests across the country, more violence against police, and more participants. Clearly the regime will kill and arrest thousands more protesters, but something just seems different, and that this time it may cascade into a true threat to the regime. Revolutions often have begun with a minor incident, and then things spin out of control as all of the pent up hatred for a regime comes forth. This seems to be one of those times. The regime will kill tens of thousands if needed to keep control, but that would just inflame the protest even more, and then real civil war might ensue. Watch the next two weeks and let’s see where this goes, but it is possible we could see the beginning of a major geopolitical change in the world. If the Russian army gets destroyed in Ukraine, as now seems likely, and there is a civil war in Iran, then everything changes. XI gets left alone vs the world, Syria comes unglued again, Lebanon has a new civil war, and Iraq moves west leaning with a lot of violence. We are a long way from knowing where all this goes, and maybe nowhere, but my gut says something different is happening.
You heard it here first-Michelle is going to be the Dem nominee in 2024. She was in NYC in July and August on an initial fund raising tour of top donors including top hedge fund CEO’s. This has been confirmed to me by people who have first hand knowledge. If you thought you had seen the last of Obama -you have not. They are trying to be the next Kennedy and Bush dynasty. She will be a very tough candidate to beat. Trump cannot be the Republican candidate, or it will be a massive landslide for the Dem
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
.jpg)
.jpg)
.jpg)
.jpg)
.jpg)
.jpg)
.jpg)
.jpg)
.jpg)
.jpg)
NEAR ORLEANS, IN THE CHATEAU DISTRICT (CHAMBORD, BLOIS, CHEVERNY ETC.) AND THE BREAD BASKET OF FRANCE.
No comments:
Post a Comment