Wednesday, April 20, 2022

Durham De-Masks CIA. This Is What Happens And This Has To Stop. Assessment. Time For Warriors. Putin's Miscalculations?








Short but lot of depth.
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Durham Filing Reveals CIA Knew in Early 2017 That Data Tying Trump to Russia Was Fake
By Jeff Carlson and Hans Mahncke 

As the trial of Hillary Clinton campaign lawyer Michael Sussmann approaches, special counsel John Durham and Sussmann’s lawyers are arguing over what evidence can be admitted. As part of those arguments, Durham filed a “routine” response late on April 15, detailing why the evidence he’s seeking to admit is both relevant and admissible.

These back-and-forth filings are common in the weeks leading up to federal trials, but the disclosures made by Durham are anything but routine.

The most striking of these disclosures concerns data trails that Sussmann and his cohorts, including “Tech Executive-1” Rodney Joffe, had supposedly uncovered between Trump and the Russian Alfa Bank. It was widely claimed that these data trails established a direct communications channel between Trump and the Russian government.

Sussmann took the data to the FBI in September 2016 hoping to trigger an investigation into Trump and his campaign. The existence of an FBI investigation would then be used by the Clinton campaign as a media kill shot against Trump in the final weeks of the 2016 election.

The scheme didn’t work as planned, and Trump went on to win the election. But this setback didn’t put the brakes on an operation that had now turned into an effort to hobble Trump’s presidency. In February 2017, after Trump was inaugurated, Sussmann took the same data trails to the CIA.


CIA Knew Early on That Sussmann Data Fabricated
Durham has now disclosed that the CIA immediately knew that both data trails were fake, finding that they were not “technically plausible,” that they didn’t “withstand technical scrutiny,” that they “contained gaps,” that they conflicted with themselves, and that they were “user-created” and not machine- or tool-generated.

The data provided by Sussmann consisted of alleged internet lookups between the Trump Organization and Alfa Bank as well as alleged use of a Russian-made YotaPhone in Trump’s vicinity at Trump Tower, near a Trump interview in Michigan, and near the White House after he was elected president.


The fact that the phone data was highly questionable was obvious from the start. Sussmann alleged there were only a dozen such phones in the United States, claiming that they weren’t publicly available but were sometimes gifted by Russian government officials. However, that information was false. YotaPhones were officially launched in the United States in 2014. And, as Durham notes, between 2014 and 2017, there were millions of lookups of YotaPhones that originated with U.S.-based internet addresses.

The sheer number of YotaPhone lookups has led some to speculate that Sussmann and other Clinton operatives might have cherry-picked data to make those communications look like something they weren’t. In other words, that there was real data, but it was being misrepresented by Sussmann. Proof of that allegation would have been bad enough, but Durham has now revealed that the CIA determined that the data was in fact “user-created”—it was fabricated.


This incredible disclosure immediately begs the question: Who created the data? It also highlights a larger question: If the CIA knew this data was falsified in February 2017, why did it allow Trump to be hounded throughout his presidency with false claims of Russia collusion?

Furthermore, why did special counsel Robert Mueller, who spent $42 million in taxpayer money supposedly investigating Trump–Russia collusion, keep forging ahead with his investigation? The information from the CIA changed everything. Why did Mueller and his team never disclose that the underlying data trail was fake? Nor is that information anywhere in their lengthy two-volume report.

Durham’s latest filing also contains two CIA reports that pertain to the agency’s interactions with Sussmann. They detail how Sussmann gave data to the CIA after Trump had assumed the presidency. Crucially, what the CIA notes show is that Sussmann claimed that the Russian phone activity continued after Trump’s “move to the White House.”

These CIA reports contradict the corporate media’s narrative that neither Sussmann nor Joffe spied on Trump. Not only was Trump spied on, but some form of spying involved the collection and subsequent manipulation of data after he became president.

The CIA notes also reveal that the data had been collected since April 2016, which coincides with the start date of Sussmann’s efforts to tie Trump to Russia on behalf of the Clinton campaign.

In another move that signals a shift in Durham’s approach, Durham has laid out details of the coordination that took place between Sussmann’s cyber operation and British ex-spy Christopher Steele’s dossier operation that was being run by Fusion GPS. We’ve known since last year that Sussmann and Steele represented two separate prongs of the Clinton campaign’s efforts to smear Trump as a Russian stooge.


Connecting the 2 Prongs
We also knew that those two prongs converged in late July 2016—directly in front of the FBI’s opening of its investigation into the Trump campaign—when Steele and Sussmann met in Washington along with a host of other Clinton campaign operatives.

Until now, Durham hadn’t connected the two prongs of Clinton’s plan, choosing instead to focus on Sussmann’s alleged crime of lying to the FBI.

That has now changed. Durham has told the court that Sussmann and Steele were two parts of the same joint venture, a move that inches us closer to possible conspiracy charges being brought by Durham against participants in the scheme. Connecting Sussmann directly to the Clinton campaign’s broader efforts to vilify Trump also establishes a motive for Sussmann’s actions.

Specifically, Durham states that Sussmann “represented and worked for the Clinton Campaign in connection with its broader opposition research efforts,” and that through his coordination with Steele, Fusion GPS, and Joffe, Sussmann took steps to integrate the Alfa Bank allegations into those opposition research efforts.


Durham also is now focusing on the fact that Sussmann personally told Steele about the Alfa Bank data trail at their July 2016 meeting. And as we already know, Steele was then tasked with writing a dossier report on the Alfa allegations.

Durham also notes that Steele’s report on the Alfa Bank allegations was completed only a few days before Sussmann brought the allegations to the FBI. Even more astonishingly, Durham points out that the FBI was given Steele’s dossier by Fusion GPS on the very same day that Sussmann took the Alfa allegations to the FBI.

And finally, Durham has announced that there are at least two individuals who have apparently flipped and have been offered immunity.

2 Individuals Offered Immunity by Durham
Notably, the first of these individuals—who has not been named by Durham—is an employee at Fusion GPS, the firm of Clinton campaign contractors who coordinated the efforts to jointly push Steele’s and Sussmann’s allegations into the media. It’s not known what the Fusion employee has told Durham, but given the overarching question facing the jury—whether Sussmann went to the FBI to push a false narrative or was merely acting as a good Samaritan—it’s entirely possible that the Fusion GPS employee will testify that Sussmann’s efforts were part of a broader scheme to falsely vilify Trump.

The second person that’s been offered immunity is David Dagon, an IT operative from Georgia Tech. Dagon was part of a small group of IT specialists tasked by Joffe to find data that linked Trump to Russia. Durham previously revealed that this group of IT operatives knew they couldn’t manufacture any claims that “would fly public scrutiny.” These same operatives also admitted in private that “the only thing that drove them to do what they were doing was that they ‘just do not like Trump.'”


Durham has now told the court that he gave Dagon immunity as the other IT operatives in the Joffe’s group had invoked their right against self-incrimination. Giving Dagon immunity was the only way Durham could obtain “otherwise-unavailable facts” underlying the Clinton campaign’s scheme to vilify Trump.


That both Dagon and a Fusion GPS employee are now cooperating with Durham is significant—not only in the Sussmann case, but for all the Clinton campaign operatives who were involved in the scheme.

It’s now left to Sussmann’s lawyers to persuade the trial judge—Obama-appointee Christopher Cooper—to throw out all this new evidence as well as Durham’s proposed witnesses. They may try to argue that the conspiracy, even if it existed, is not relevant to what Sussmann has been charged with—namely, lying to the FBI. Durham has already indicated that if this were to happen, he would object on the grounds that the existence of a conspiracy is compelling evidence of Sussmann’s motive when he lied to the FBI.

Ultimately, the judge will decide what evidence will and will not be allowed.

The bigger question that looms is whether Durham will charge anyone with conspiracy. He clearly has plenty of evidence, but for reasons not fully understood, he has not used that evidence to date. It may be that he faces significant internal pressure from DOJ officials. It may also be that he’s trying to extend the legal clock until after the midterms, knowing that prosecuting the Clinton campaign will require political cover.

Or it may simply be that Durham is waiting for more evidence that would allow him to charge top campaign officials. This argument is backed by the fact that the two people who received immunity are too far down the food chain to have known anything about the extent of involvement from top Clinton campaign officials.


Jeff Carlson is a co-host of Truth Over News on Epoch TV. Twitter: @themarketswork.

Hans Mahncke is a co-host of Truth Over News on Epoch TV. Twitter: @hansmahncke
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Military assessment of Putin's army:

The Russian Bear is apparently a paper teddy bear, not the great military behemoth it was once thought to be and here is why.
 
First, as the old saying goes, “Amateurs talk tactics, experts talk logistics,” and Russia has shown itself unable to provide the logistics necessary to sustain a major war.
 
Second, the Russians, or at least Putin, have forgotten history.  I will start with the logistical points first. If we look at the start of the war, the first few critical days, the Russian initial strike was feeble at best.  It appears that it was hampered by costs, an attempt to spend as little as possible, not by military necessities or sound strategy.  By comparison, when the US attacked Iraq in 2003, within a few days the overwhelming US air attack totally destroyed the Iraqi Air Force and air defense system.  By comparison, after a month, the Ukrainian Air Force and air defense system, though degraded are still operating.
 
What should one read from this?  First, if the Russian Air Force was what it was thought to be, Ukraine would have suffered what Iraq did, but it did not.  This leads me to believe that far from all of the Russian Air Force’s aircraft are operational.  That is to say a large percentage of its aircraft are not flyable, that they are probably what is called “hanger queens” that are parked in hangers waiting for spare parts or being stripped of parts to keep a few aircraft operational.
 
There is a possible explanation for this spare part issue.  The problem of spare parts existed throughout the post-WWII Soviet era.  The 5-Year Plan system counted only completed units and didn’t consider spare parts, as a result, there were few spare parts to repair equipment when it broke down.  In Africa, where I have worked with several former Soviet client states, I’ve seen shed after shed filled with Soviet equipment that was broken down and unrepaired for the lack of spare parts.  I suspect the system of completed units as the goal, not spare parts, continues.
 
In general, however, spare parts cost money and if there are no spare parts, then this is a funding issue.  Money, or if you prefer, the national economy is the mother’s milk of logistics.
 
The next issue is munitions.  Reports indicate that the Russians have fired 1,000 ground-to-ground missiles so far, but why weren’t they fired during the first few days?  The US missiles sent against Iraq in the initial phase of that war destroyed hangers and cratered runways, making it nearly impossible for the Iraqis to operate their aircraft.  The strategic goal of eliminating the Iraqi  Air Force was the target of those attacks and the cost was not an issue.  One explanation is that Russia is going on the cheap and trying to avoid spending the money each missile costs, because it doesn’t have the money to replace them.  Another is that they didn’t have a large inventory of these weapons, because they could not or chose not to afford a bigger inventory.  In either case, it is a money issue.
 
If you look at the video footage on TV you will see large numbers of T-72 tanks with their reactive armor (square blocks all over their surfaces).  The Russians have developed the T-14 Armata Tank, which is supposed to be the terror of the battlefield, but I have yet to see any pictures of it in the Ukraine war.  Supposedly 2,300 of them have been built starting in 2015, but where are they?  If the 30-year-old T-72’s can’t subdue Ukraine, where is this wonder weapon?  Why hasn’t it been sent in to save the day for Putin?  Or is it facing a greater threat, and who might that threat be?
 
Again, I suspect that the T-14 is not the wonder weapon it has been claimed to be.  It is possible that it has functionality issues, i.e. the various systems do not work as anticipated, or that there just aren’t 2,300 of them. 
 
Then there are the reports that the Russians have approached China for military equipment.  This reinforces my belief that the Russians did not have the necessary inventory of operational (functioning) military equipment to sustain a long war.  This may be a question of spare parts and poor maintenance practices, but in either case it is again the Russian military logistical system that is incapable of supporting the war that Putin has started.  And again, this may be an issue of a weak national economy.
 
Then there are the “all terrain” trucks that are lined up on the Ukrainian roads.  Apparently the tires are cheap Chinese tires and they require periodic (weekly or monthly) maintenance to be in an operational status.  There are reports of these tires failing, leaving hundreds of these trucks broken down along the roads and unable to deliver needed supplies to the front-line troops.  Again, we’re talking a lack of spare parts and now we add to it poor maintenance practices, another logistical issue.
 
Poor maintenance is not a new issue.  If one looks at the Soviet Navy, its ships had two sets of the same radar systems and duplicate sets of other electronic equipment.  It was reported that the Soviets did not have trained technicians capable of trouble shooting and fixing their electronic equipment like the US Navy.  That there were a few senior sailors aboard the ships who had any such skills.  That there were few spare parts, and that repairs were generally accomplished by changing out major blocks of a piece of equipment when a simple replacement of a capacitor could have fixed the problem.

On a larger scale the Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov broke down during operations in the Mediterranean several years ago, its crew was incapable of repairing the situation, and it had to be towed back to Russia for repairs.  Eventually it was nearly destroyed in a major fire.  In addition, whenever the Russian fleet deploys, invariably there is a fleet tug dispatched with them because breakdowns are apparently very common.  This does not include the number of Soviet submarines that vanished or sank due to known maintenance issues.

We also have reports of the Russians eating 7-year-old MREs and there is video of Russian troops pillaging grocery stores for food.  It seems the Russian logistical system cannot provide the provisions necessary to feed their troops.

Now, let’s take another view of this situation.  There are numerous reports of heavy desertion in the Russian ranks.  There is even a report of a Russian colonel being deliberately run over by a tank and killed by his troops.  That is mutiny and it appears to have been provoked by the failed logistical system coupled with the soldiers having been lied to when the invasion started.  They were told they were going on an exercise, not to war.

We also have reports of seven Russian generals.  Generals rarely go to the front lines anymore.  Bunkers are much more comfortable.  Obviously they are being pushed from above to inspire their troops to fight harder so they are going to the front and waiving their sabers as they cry “Charge!”  They may have been killed by Ukrainians, but if a Russian colonel was deliberately run over by a tank driven by his own men, is it not possible that these Russian generals were victims of what we called in Vietnam “fragging?”

Summary:  All of this suggests that the Russian military industrial complex has serious funding issues and cannot and has not been able to supply the material necessary to prosecute a war, AND that the Russian military is generally unable or incapable of maintaining that equipment.

Russia has forgotten history.

There is one historical issue that Putin has not forgotten.  He is terrified that thousands of body bags returning to Russian mothers will produce the same effect on his regime that they did when they came back from Afghanistan.  This is one of the causes of the collapse of Putin’s beloved Soviet Union and a repetition of it could remove Putin.

As a result of Putin’s desire to avoid streams of body bags, we get reports of field crematories accompanying his army as it went into Ukraine.  We also hear he is attempting to hire 12,000 Syrian fighters.  Better dead Syrians than dead Russian boys.

Putin has also called on Chechnya fighters, and this is where Putin’s blindness to history and human psychology jumps out at us.  He has obviously ignored the effects what happened in Chechnya in 1994 to the Chechen people.  He invaded Chechnya and swept the Chechen Army from the field.  However, when his tank columns invaded the city of Grozny they were torn to pieces, so he fell back and used his artillery to brutally reduce Grozny to a pile of rubble, as he is now doing in Ukraine.  Putin seems to think that the Chechens are obedient robots who have forgotten the Russian brutality in their homeland.  Certainly, there are a few who are, but history tells us that the vast majority of Chechens, who lost family and friends to the Russian holocaust in Chechnya have not forgotten, and would love to kill any Russian soldier they could.  I strongly suspect that a large percentage of the Chechens whom Russia has and will send into Ukraine will take the first opportunity to desert and join the Ukrainians so they can kill Russians in revenge for their losses.  Indeed, I have seen video of unidentified troops fighting the Russians crying “Allahu Akbar”.  They are obviously Muslims and probably Chechen deserters who joined the Ukrainians.

Then we come to the Ukrainian history with Russia.  There is the “Holodomor”, also known as the Terror-Famine or the Great Famine.  It was a famine in the Soviet Ukraine from 1932 to 1933 where the Soviets (in the Ukrainian’s eyes, the Russians) deliberately starved to death 4-5 million Ukrainians so that they could collectivize the Ukrainian farms as part of the Leninist Communist philosophy, and so that the food the Russians took from the Ukrainians could be used to feed the starving Russians.  Stalin knew that it was hungry Russian city dwellers that had produced the 1917 revolution and he rightly feared the same thing would happen to his regime.

However, the Ukrainians did not forget this and in 1941 they greeted the Nazi’s as liberators from Soviet/Russian oppression.  As the war progressed, large numbers of Ukrainians joined the German army to fight and kill the hated Russians.  After Germany was defeated, there was a guerilla anti-Soviet war in Ukraine until 1955.  This is the second holocaust inflicted on the Ukrainians by the Russians and, believe me, the Ukrainians are inspired to fight to the last drop of their blood against the hated Russians.

Putin, in his arrogance and blind ambition, has totally ignored these historical lessons.  When planning the invasion of Ukraine, Putin only counted tanks, cannons, bombers, and missiles.  He figured Ukraine would be as easy a conquest as Chechnya, because he forgot to calculate the human factor.  It is not and it will not be an easy conquest.  Even if he succeeds in occupying Ukraine and replacing its government with a Quisling government, there will be a guerilla war that will go on for years and it will become a bleeding ulcer that will sap the strength and destroy the morale of Putin’s Russia.

George Nafziger, PhD (military history)
Captain, USNR-Ret
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In School Board Elections, a Time for Warriors

By Mark Davis

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This is what happens when you feed bullies:


Palestinians Are Going to End Up Starting a Third Intifada

Posted by Ruth King


After a slew of deadly terrorist attacks this month and now rioting in Jerusalem, it’s increasingly starting to look like there’s a coordinated effort by Palestinian authorities to spark another Intifada. It’s unsurprising. Every time Abu Mazen needs more funding to prop up his kleptocracy, he triggers new bloodshed and takes his case to the international community. The traditional way to accomplish this is by fanning false rumors about Jewish plans to appropriate Islamic holy sites.


Back in 1929 — before the modern state of Israel was formed or “occupied territories” existed — the father of Palestinian nationalism, Amin al-Husseini, used the Holy Mount site to spread blood libel and whip up violence that resulted in the murder of 133 Jews. In nearby Hebron, an ancient neighborhood was destroyed and 67 Jews were slaughtered by their neighbors. This same strategy has been implemented numerous times since. The pretext for the Second Intifada was an Ariel Sharon visited the Temple Mount area. Any openly Jewish presence near Al-Aqsa is considered a “provocation” by Palestinians. And international organizations help fuel their grievances by attempting to erase the religious and historical connection between the city and the Jewish people.


There has never been a shred of evidence to back the claim that Israel wants to eject Muslims from the Temple Mount. Indeed, after taking back the site from Jordan in 1967, Israel handed custodianship to the Hashemites and Waqf Muslim religious trust. To put that act into context, it’s worth remembering that before 1967, Jewish holy sites that were occupied by Arabs were treated as garbage dumps — and not much better today in Arab-controlled areas.


“With our souls, with our blood, we sacrifice for Al-Aqsa,” gullible Palestinian pawns shouted this week as they again threw stones and defended a compound that no one wants to take from them. Jews are forbidden from worshipping at the Temple Mount. They can only pray nearby. But that won’t do either. Nearly every year, stones are launched at those worshipping below, forcing Israeli police to raid the site or temporarily limit access — usually for very brief periods. 


The New York Times calls this “confrontations between the Israeli police and Muslims at the Aqsa Mosque compound in Jerusalem.” But “confrontation” is merely a euphemism for the needless violence initiated by a side that is unwilling to live peacefully with others. Though all will suffer, the violence — that could spiral out of control — never brings the Palestinians any closer to their own state. It only hardens Israeli resolve.

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White House won’t condemn Palestinian terrorists, but it will fund them

When Arabs murder Jews or Israelis, the “who” is always missing from the classic “who, what, where, when and how” needed to accurately inform readers.

By Morton A. Klein and Elizabeth Berney/ JNS


Sadly, it is again time to mourn for more murdered innocent Jews and pray for the wounded in Israel. On April 7, a Palestinian Arab gunman from Samaria slipped through a hole in the security fence, traveled to Tel Aviv, murdered three Israeli Jews and injured another 11 people, several of whom are fighting for their lives. The three who died were were Barak Lufan, 35, a father of three, Olympic kayaker, Paralympics coach and head Olympic kayaking team coach; Tomer Morad, 27, a recently graduated mechanical engineer; and Tomer’s recently engaged childhood friend, Eytam Magini, 27, whose family attended Eytam’s funeral instead of his wedding.


In just two weeks, Palestinian Arabs and Islamist Israeli Arabs murdered 14 innocent victims—10 Jews, an Israeli Druze, an Israeli-Arab Christian and two Ukrainians—in shooting, car-ramming and knife-stabbing attacks.


Unfortunately, it’s also again time for more empty U.S. condemnation statements that fail to identify the victims as Jews or Israelis; fail to identify the perpetrators as Palestinian Arabs or Islamist Israeli Arabs; and fail to change U.S. policies that contribute to anti-Jewish terror, such as sending $500 million to Palestinian Arabs in the past year.


Remarkably, every statement by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and U.S. Ambassador to Israel Thomas Nides follows this same pattern. These officials have no problem falsely accusing Jewish “settlers” of provoking violence by building Jewish homes, as Blinken did on March 27—the same day that Palestinian Arab terrorists murdered two Israelis at a bus stop in Hadera. Similarly, on March 15, Nides immorally denounced Israelis building homes in and around Jerusalem, and Judea and Samaria, as “stupid” and “infuriating.” But men studiously avoid accurately identifying actual terrorists: the Palestinian Arab murderers of innocent Jewish and Israeli victims.


When Palestinian Arabs murder Jews or Israelis, the “who” is always missing from the classic “who, what, where, when and how” needed to accurately inform readers. 


This is the same pattern that the Obama-Biden administration adopted. In 2016, we documented that U.S. State Department condolence statements consistently omitted both the Jewish and/or Israeli identity of the victims, and the Palestinian Arab identity of the terrorists that perpetrated murderous attacks in Israel. Similarly, the Obama-Biden administration’s statements about terrorism in Nigeria omitted identifying that the terrorists were Islamists and that their innocent murdered victims were Christians. By contrast, that same administration identified those involved in terror attacks in other countries whenever doing so fit with the administration’s political agenda.


After the April 7 terror attack on Israeli Jews, Nides tweeted: “Horrified to see another cowardly terror attack on innocent civilians, this time in Tel Aviv. Praying for peace, and sending condolences to the victims and their families. This has to stop!”


Yes, this has to stop!


The Biden administration has to stop avoiding identifying Palestinian Arab terrorists, and ignoring innocent Jewish and Israeli victims.


And the Biden administration has to stop sending hundreds of millions of U.S. taxpayer funds to Palestinian Arabs, which frees up money for the Palestinian Authority to pay Arab terrorists “pay for slay” rewards of $400 million per year to murder Jews.


Unfortunately, at a press conference on March 27—the same day that Palestinian Arab terrorists murdered two Israelis in Hadera—Blinken boasted about increasing U.S. assistance to Palestinian Arabs.


Also, on March 16, Nides tweeted: “Pleased to see lots for Palestinians in the budget just signed by @POTUS Biden: $144 million increase (now $219 million) for Economic Support Funds, $40 million for security forces training in the WBank, and $50 million for 2nd year of the Nita Lowey MEPPA Fund.”


This has to stop!


And the Biden administration has to put an end to the looming disastrous Iran nuclear deal and potential delisting of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Giving Iran more than $90 billion in sanctions relief will cause countless terror attacks against innocent Jews and against friendly Muslim nations across the Middle East.


The Biden administration also has to stop ignoring the P.A.’s repeated incitement to murder Jews and start actively opposing this horror.


The Palestinian Arab governor of Jenin, Akram Rajoub, just praised the Tel Aviv shooter as a “Fatah warrior” and not a terrorist. PMW documented an enormous increase in P.A. incitement leading to the recent terror attacks, including false accusations that Israel was sending “settler herds” to invade Al-Aqsa mosque and that Israel adopted a policy of “summary executions” against Palestinian Arabs. On April 3, the first day of Ramadan, P.A. Supreme Shari’ah Judge Mahmoud Al-Habbash incited terror on official P.A. television, declaring that Ramadan is “a month of jihad, conquest and victory.”


This has to stop!


The Biden administration also has to stop its other demands that encourage more Palestinian Arab terror and lawlessness, including the administration’s calls for a Palestinian Arab state; encouragement of more work permits for residents of the Gaza Strip to enter Israel; and demand that Israel not enforce valid court orders against Arab squatters who failed to pay rent on Jewish-owned properties for many decades.


This has to stop!

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Bret Stephens, not The NYT's, admires Zelenskyy.


https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/19/opinion/why-we-admire-zelensky.html?unlocked_article_code=AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACEIPuomT1JKd6J17Vw1cRCfTTMQmqxCdw_PIxftm3iWka3DJDm8TiOMNAo6B_EGKeqpyIsQ-mj2XQd5bPfo9Sfh_yPRcLgptVwys6NOiqagyHh8U-8i1T39kmNXER6w5-jvnKWfmJesiyrfm-krZamL1XPeL12lydwxivcEzdgmt3CYClaiRFPVnmYUrhYdXDZ94QTYEYCWArqOoX004YIPaG0mavgomWOhZWiXRmMqc6t8DcwZRDlHARRBv8Dp2qYMcaJ5MYvGJf1N3c9H-gL4RFmVvMIyrYpUxTIDQnLhg2qXfRSZ8mPNT5cmaBwbCGy171w&smid=em-share

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Has Putin made several miscalculations which caused the West's backbone to re-occur?  If so, who wins?

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How to Deter Nuclear War in Ukraine

It’s crucial for the U.S. to make Russia understand the consequences of an unthinkable escalation.

By Robert C. O’Brien


The most sobering briefing I received as White House national security adviser came on my third day in office, Sept. 20, 2019. I sat in the Situation Room with military officers and ran through the what-ifs and procedures for continuity of government and retaliation options in the event of a nuclear attack on the U.S. or one of our treaty allies.


The idea that in 2022, a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council would use nuclear weapons to conquer a neighboring country is unthinkable. Yet here we are. For months, Russian officials and commentators have been rattling their nuclear saber and touting Moscow’s doctrine of “escalating to de-escalate”—in other words, if Russia is losing a war, even one it started, it reserves the right to use a nuclear attack to end it.


Today, after nearly two months of heavy combat in Ukraine, Russia appears to be losing. The dramatic sinking of the Moskva, flagship of the Russian Black Sea fleet, is only the latest setback to befall Vladimir Putin’s forces. With dark irony, a commentator on Russian state-controlled media denounced the sinking as an act of war and urged Moscow to “bomb Kyiv” in response.


If Ukrainian forces push Russia out of the Donbas and even Crimea, there would be no way for Mr. Putin to hide Russia’s humiliating loss from its people. If such an outcome became likely, would he use one of his thousands of “tactical” or “battlefield” nuclear devices to take out Kharkiv, Odessa or even Kyiv in an attempt to save face and end the war on terms he dictates? This possibility is surely on the minds of President Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, and his staff.


The time is now to deter Russia from “escalating to de-escalate.” The U.S. must unambiguously communicate to Moscow what lies ahead if it goes down this terrible path. Mr. Putin and his supporters need to understand that if he detonates a nuclear weapon in Ukraine, the U.S. response will be swift and significant—far exceeding the limited export sanctions under consideration around the world in response to Russian atrocities in Bucha.


America and its allies shouldn’t retaliate in kind, with nuclear weapons. The U.S. should, however, be prepared to take other serious actions quickly. Among the options:


• Clear the Russian navy’s two remaining Slava-class cruisers, their escort ships and submarines from the Mediterranean. This could be accomplished by a diplomatic démarche followed by more-forceful action if necessary to enforce compliance.


• Eliminate Russian air and military assets in Syria and Libya on the same basis. The U.S. and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization have the ability to do so fully within hours if Russia refuses to withdraw its forces to its homeland.


• Entirely dismantle all pipelines used to transport Russian oil and gas to the West, quashing even the hope of future sales to Europe. Military assets could assist civilian engineering companies to accomplish this task with dispatch.


• Advise all non-Western nations, including China, that purchasing Russian oil would result in massive punitive tariffs by the U.S., Japan and the European Union that would effectively decouple their economies from the industrial world.


• End Russian dreams of earning hard currency by servicing Iran’s nuclear industry. The idea that the West would stand by while Iran develops its own tactical nuclear capacity should be dismissed. The U.S., Israel and their Arab allies would be positioned to give the ayatollahs a short window to completely dismantle Iran’s nuclear program under an intrusive inspection regime. If the ayatollahs decline, as they likely would, the key elements of Iran’s nuclear program could be dismantled by the full air power of the regional alliance arrayed against them.


These are only some of the steps that could be taken if Mr. Putin employs nuclear weapons in Ukraine. The urgent priority is to communicate them to the Kremlin now. The same strong and well-messaged deterrence that kept the free world safe from nuclear attack during the long years of the Cold War must be restored to avert a nuclear tragedy in Ukraine. If it isn’t, the risk of Russian miscalculation will rise—as will the even greater risk of nuclear escalation beyond Ukraine.


Mr. O’Brien is chairman of American Global Strategies LLC. He served as White House national security adviser, 2019-21.

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Vladimir Putin’s Gift to NATO

Finland and Sweden may join the Western alliance after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The Editorial Board


Vladimir Putin hoped that invading Ukraine would make NATO splinter, but the alliance has been energized and is now set to expand. This is a reminder that the bloc’s growth is a response to—and not the cause of—Russia’s aggression.


Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin said last week that Helsinki would decide whether to apply for NATO membership in the coming weeks. The country’s parliament is scheduled to debate this week. Nearby Sweden appears likely to apply too, with local media suggesting Stockholm could pursue membership within months.


Russia isn’t taking it well. “If Sweden and Finland join NATO, the length of the alliance’s land borders with Russia will more than double,” former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said last week. He warned Russia would retaliate by deploying “Iskanders, hypersonic weapons, and nuclear-armed ships literally at arm’s length from their own homes.” Such threats underscore the case for joining.


Sweden and Finland are members of the European Union, but as historically neutral nations they preferred to keep a distance from NATO. For years about a third of Swedes wanted to apply, and Finns were even more skeptical. But support for accession has grown since the invasion. More than two-thirds of Finns showed support in a recent survey.


Some Swedish and Finnish elites are more hesitant. Last month Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson suggested that joining NATO “would further destabilize this area of Europe and increase tension.” Many Finnish politicians also have been ambivalent. But the public sees the devastation in Ukraine and realizes it could happen to them. As democracies, the governments will eventually reflect the will of the people.


Finns and Swedes are moving toward the alliance because they believe it’s the best path to peace in the long run. The Baltic states know they would be under even greater threat if they had not joined NATO. So do the Poles.


The U.S. Senate will have to approve accession, and the case for approval is overwhelming. The debate should be instructive, and expect opposition from the small but persistent isolationist wing of the Republican Party. In 2019 Senators Rand Paul and Mike Lee were the lone votes against accepting North Macedonia to the alliance, and other Trump-aligned Senators could join them this time.


Yet Finland and Sweden wouldn’t be alliance freeloaders. Their strategic location in the Baltic Sea could be critical in a wider conflict with Russia. Finland already punches above its weight militarily, and wealthy Sweden can afford its announced defense-spending increases. A secure Europe better capable of defending itself serves American interests.


Some conservatives argue that Washington should focus on China and the Pacific rather than make new security commitments in Europe. We’re all for doing more to deter China. But the rulers in Beijing and Moscow are working together, and the U.S. will need allies in both theaters to deter them. Successful aggression by one revanchist state encourages the other to do the same.


The U.S. will have to spend more on defense no matter what NATO does. Adding Sweden and Finland spreads the burden of deterring Russia and reduces the risks of war.

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