The filming was done in January 2020. Some would argue this is our equivalent of The Berlin Wall but that is not so. I believe a sovereign nation has the right to secure borders and we welcome immigration done legally and yes, our laws are antiquated and need updating to suit the new times we live in and new circumstances.
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A good buddy, tennis partner and fellow memo reader sent me a video and said it was guaranteed to make me laugh. I did not find it funny so I e mailed him that and inquired whether I was entitled to a roll of TP.
He did not find that funny.
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Another dear friend, fellow memo reader and neighbor sent me these and said he did not want any more Coronavirus jokes:
I sent him back this:
This is a tribute to Bob Hope who DID make a difference
?
?
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A good buddy, tennis partner and fellow memo reader sent me a video and said it was guaranteed to make me laugh. I did not find it funny so I e mailed him that and inquired whether I was entitled to a roll of TP.
He did not find that funny.
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Another dear friend, fellow memo reader and neighbor sent me these and said he did not want any more Coronavirus jokes:
FloridaA Florida senior citizen drove his brand new Corvette convertible out of the dealership. Taking off down the road, he pushed it to 80 mph, enjoying the wind blowing through what little hair he had left."Amazing," he thought as he flew down I-95, pushing the pedal even more.Looking in his rear view mirror, he saw a Florida State Trooper, blue lights flashing and siren blaring. He floored it to 100 mph, then 110, then 120. Suddenly, he thought, "What am I doing? I'm too old for this!" and pulled over to await the trooper's arrival.Pulling in behind him, the trooper got out of his vehicle and walked up to the Corvette. He looked at his watch, then said, "Sir, my shift ends in 30 minutes. Today is Friday. If you can give me a new reason for speeding -- a reason I've never before heard -- I'll let you go."The old gentleman paused then said: "Three years ago, my wife ran off with a Florida State Trooper. I thought you were bringing her back.""Have a good day, Sir," replied the trooper.GeorgiaThe owner of a golf course in Georgia was confused about paying an invoice, so he decided to ask his secretary for some mathematical help.He called her into his office and said, "Y'all graduated from the University of Georgia, and I need some help. If I wuz to give yew $20,000, minus 14%, how much would you take off?"The secretary thought a moment, and then replied, "Everthang but my earrings."LouisianaA senior citizen in Louisiana was overheard saying ... "When the end of the world comes, I hope to be in Louisiana ."When asked why, he replied, "I'd rather be in Louisiana 'cause everythang happens in Louisiana 20 years later than in the rest of the world."MississippiThe young man from Mississippi came running into the store and said to his buddy, "Bubba, somebody just stole your pickup truck from the parking lot!"Bubba replied, "Did y'all see who it was?"The young man answered, "I couldn't tell, but I got the license number."SouthCarolinaA man in South Carolina had a flat tire, pulled off on the side of the road, and proceeded to put a bouquet of flowers in front of the car and one behind it. Then he got back in the car to wait.A passerby studied the scene as he drove by, and was so curious he turned around and went back. He asked the fellow what the problem was.The man replied, "I got a flat tahr."
The passerby asked, "But, what's with the flowers?"The man responded, "When you break down, they tell you to put flares in the front and flares in the back. I never did understand it, neither."TennesseeA Tennessee State trooper pulled over a pickup on I-65. The trooper asked, "Got any ID?"The driver replied, "'Bout whut?"TexasThe Sheriff pulled up next to the guy unloading garbage out of his pick-up into the ditch. The Sheriff asked, "Why are you dumping garbage in the ditch? Don't you see that sign right over your head.""Yep," he replied. "That's why I'm dumpin' it here, 'cause it says: 'Fine For Dumping Garbage.'"
I sent him back this:
This is a tribute to Bob Hope who DID make a difference
ON TURNING 70 -
"I still chase women, but only downhill."
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ON TURNING 80 - "That's the time of your life when
even your birthday suit needs pressing."
?
ON TURNING 90 - "You know you are getting old when the candles cost more than the cake."
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ON TURNING 100 - " I don't feel old. In fact, I don't feel anything until noon. Then it's time for my nap."
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ON GIVING UP HIS EARLY CAREER (BOXING) - "I ruined my hands in the ring. The referee kept stepping on them."
ON GOLF - "Golf is my profession. Show
business is just to pay the green fees."
?
ON PRESIDENTS - "I have performed for
12 presidents but entertained only six."
?
ON WHY HE CHOOSE SHOWBIZ FOR HIS CAREER -
"When I was born, the doctor said to my mother,
congratulations, you have an eight pound ham."
?
ON RECEIVING THE CONGRESSIONAL GOLD MEDAL -
"I feel very humble, but I think I have the
strength of character to fight it."
?
ON HIS FAMILY'S EARLY POVERTY - "Four of us slept in the one bed. When it got cold, mother threw on another brother."
?
ON HIS SIX BROTHERS - "That's how I learned to
dance. Waiting for the bathroom."
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ON HIS EARLY FAILURES - "I would not have had anything
to eat if it wasn't for the stuff the audience threw at me."
?
ON GOING TO HEAVEN.
"I have done benefits for ALL religions. I would
hate to blow the hereafter on a technicality."
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Another Rant.
Far be it for me to challenge the Rant author. He is smarter and more worldly and experienced in such matters than I will ever be. I do understand what he is saying, however, and he appropriately hedged as he should. My question is when this scourge is behind us will the pre-Coronavirus consumer mentality be so willing to go back to business as usual or will we see a post virus mental attitude that is more circumspect and hesitant.
In other words the economics turn V but consumer attitudes stay W
.Time will tell.
In other words the economics turn V but consumer attitudes stay W
.Time will tell.
The massive fiscal and monetary stimulus will make a big difference this time. Ignore all
the false comments making it look like the small business loan program is in chaos. It is
already well underway, and the banks and Treasury have worked out the real issues. B of
A processed over 85,000 applications the first day. Community banks processed
thousands more. JP Moran was online by mid-day Friday. If there was any confusion, it
is because some bankers were not able to stand up their process as fast as the others, and
borrowers were not listening how to get the app, and go to their bank. This is a $350
billion deal that was stood up in a week across the country. That is a miracle, and not
chaos. Of course some people could not figure it out, and so claimed chaos. The press
was quick to find some dummy and claim he was typical, and published the dummy’s
anecdotal story of problems instead of one of the 85,000 success stories from B of A.
Some commentators and analysts try to make themselves sound important by making
noise being negative. It will prove to be a major good program that makes a huge
difference to recovery of the economy, saving small businesses, and getting people
rehired. The program was very well thought thru, and will work very well. The fact that
it needed a couple of tweaks at the last minute is not unusual given it was put together
on the fly in a week or so. When was the last time any government agency or big
company implemented a massive new program that did not have some flaws at first.
This program shows the difference between businessmen running the government, and
not old time politicians and left wingers who never ran a business, and who hate big
business, and successful people.
Obama took eight months to get cash into the economy, and his $800 billion shovel
ready stimulus program never built anything of note, but it sure did help his favored
groups. Then there was Solindra-that was the same solar waste Pelosi was trying to jam
into the bill again, and will try again in the next round. Obama fined the banks tens of
millions which was capital they needed to make loans and bring stability to the financial
system. Much of that fine money was given to favored liberal organizations. Mnuchin
and the Fed are doing everything they can to support the banks. Mnuchin was a very
smart and successful deal guy who bought a bank, and so he understood what needed to
be done, and as a deal doer, he knew how to act fast and flexibly. Can you imagine what
would have happened if we had Biden and politicians on the left dealing with this crisis.
The unemployment number is not the important number now. What matters is, who will
not get paid or barely paid. Along with paying everyone 4 months full wages including
the extra $600 to fill the gaps in unemployment, and the extra cash from the $1200 per
person, $3400 per family, free money, most individuals will be in relatively unscathed
as the economy returns to full function by late summer, which is around when the
unemployment runs out. That is what really matters. This is not normal unemployment
insurance that pays less than full salary, and only for laid off workers. This pays full
wages to everyone including freelancers and self-employed. That is a giant game
changer difference.
No matter who you are, so long as you had income from salary or commissions, or fees,
you get full wages for four months. Wages in early March were still up 3.5% from last
year. Now there are also a lot of still employed people getting extra money for working
during this period. Around 500,000 people have been hired by Amazon, Wal Mart and
others already during the past three weeks. So while there are a lot of unemployed, they
are the equivalent of getting full paychecks, and those employed, in some cases, are
getting raises and bonuses and overtime. Do not focus on the number of unemployed.
Focus on, are they mostly getting paid as if they are still working. Are they saving a lot
by low gas prices, and by not going out to dinner or the mall. Bottom line, the economic
hit this time is unlike any prior period. However, it should be minimized by all these
sources of income to individuals and companies. In fact, many low and middle income
families will have more cash inflow temporarily than if working, through all these
programs. The exact point Lindsay Graham was making.
Then there is the massive Fed loan program of $4 trillion which the press seems to be
ignoring because they are not smart enough to understand it. The Fed will be making
loans to large companies and mid-sized ones, and it will be on very good terms. They
will be loans to be repaid in full, but in the interim it will allow many to survive. And
restart. Some like JC Penny will just go away, as they should, and the remaining
companies will be stronger. This is the final washout from the crash. The Fed also saved
the world by rushing in with Treasury to liquify the debt and currency markets. This
they were ahead of the wave and did a great job.
Investment grade bond issuance and high quality muni bond markets are fully back and
pretty smooth. Investment grade bonds is actually having a huge issuance level. The
problem is, the lower rated tranches and issuers are not able to be priced yet with so
much risk uncertainty. Currency markets have stabilized thanks to the US Fed. This was
critical. Most important, the interbank loan market is stable and functioning very well,
unlike in 2008 when it froze, and that cascaded into the crash. The repo and commercial
paper markets are back to stability, which also did not happen last time, and which are
critical to funding lenders, mortgage REITs, and money market funds. If Powell and
Mnuchin had not moved so fast and well, this would have been far worse than 2008.
They are the unsung heroes of the financial markets and the economy. The press are too
dumb to even understand what has been happening, so it is not reported in the
mainstream media. Instead Acosta and others try to have stupid gotcha questions for
Trump arguing over what did Jared mean by our stockpile.
The one place there is real problems in financial markets is CMBS. As mentioned before,
there will be major defaults in hotels and retail, and that will create real losses in CMBS.
It is possible there might be defaults in office as well as tenants do not pay rent. It will be
much worse than in 2008 since hotels are either closed, or barely at 10% occupancy.
Now we need the fiscal money to flow to individuals and get people back to receiving
cash equal to what they were getting when working. There are states that cannot deal
with the flood of claims, so this may take a little time. That is the fault of states with
ancient computer systems, not the administration. So of course the press blames Trump.
The IRS will have the direct deposit money out in record time, not months as some
naysayers claim. The un-banked may take a bit longer, but again, ignore the
commentators who say it will take 4 months. These are people who never ran a business,
or who do not understand how to make things happen under pressure. Mnuchin
understands, as do his people.
Social Security recipients will have money quickly, giving extra cash to that large group
above what they normally receive so they will be able to be spending again. Bottom line,
there is an enormous flood of cash coming into the economy very quickly, and it will
continue to flow for several months until the virus is gone. That flood of cash is
unprecedented. Over $6 trillion. With all the forgiveness programs like no interest on
student loans, the real impact is well over that. Nothing like this has ever been tried. At
the same time, interest rates are near zero, which will make it attractive for corporations
to raise whatever cash they need at almost free cost after tax. There have been a number
of other things done to let everyone have a delay in paying taxes, tap 401K, reductions in
student loan interest, and other steps that are going to make a major good difference in
everyone being under far less pressure to come up with cash to get through until the
economy recovers.
Consumers were in the best balance sheet shape ever. Refinanced mortgages at ultra-low
rates reduced their debt service burden even further. The personal savings rate has been
very high for a long time so a lot of individuals have cash in the bank despite claims that
40% can’t cover a $400 bill, which has been shown to be not true. All of these things
being done are making the difference between a long, major recession, and past
downturns that had destruction of personal savings. Instead it should be a short recession
and potentially a good recovery. If the stock market does recover very well by year end,
then wealth will be recreated and wealth effect is important to stimulate spending by late
in the year. It is very likely that consumers will not rush to spend. This has been a trauma
for everyone. It will be like the depression, 9-11 and 2008 all rolled into one. People like
my parents who lived through the depression and then the war took years to recover a
willingness to spend. Don’t expect travel or restaurants to recover quickly as it will take
time for people to feel safe in planes, or crowded restaurants.
Despite all this, there are some very respected economists who are forecasting that this
will be far worse than my scenario. They believe it will be a longer recession and deep.
They think many companies will not survive. Maybe they are correct, but most financial
professionals, and economists think it will be short with a good come back by Q4.
Assuming the steps to mitigate work as Fauci and Birks predict, then I think my scenario
is more likely, but we will not really know until May if the virus is in retreat. By then
maybe the malaria drug trial in NY and elsewhere will prove efficacy and change the
whole trajectory of hospitalizations and death. Maybe they will have perfected the tests
for antibodies and allow more people to go safely back to work.
One good things, is there is an enormous amount of brainpower being poured into this
and it will yield good outcomes this year. That effort will also likely create a vast
knowledge base from which to create vaccines to prevent another recurrence of Covid or
another pandemic. It will not be surprising if they find a vaccine to eliminate these types
of viruses as they did polio.
Retail will never be the same. There will be accelerated store closures and the migration
to online will also accelerate. Amazon and Wal Mart will be huge winners. Retailers that
have not fully stood up effective online sites will just be buried. I have had several reports
that some companies are never going back to office space. They have concluded that
remote work works, and they will give up their leased offices and rent space to use once a
week for team building and relationship building. We will see how extensive this becomes
, but owning a big office building in NY, Sf, LA, or Chicago may not be a good
investment long term. The hotel business will take years to recover.
Geopolitics will never be the same. Iran is being devastated, and will continue to
deteriorate with the sanctions. China will never be able to succeed the way they thought.
The UK is now very likely to cancel any purchase from Huawei, and there will likely be
other consequences to Chinese having caused this pandemic by lying and covering up.
The EU will not likely survive this in five years. The split between northern countries
and the south is worse than ever. As usual when Italy needed real help with equipment,
Germany did nothing . The US will remain the preeminent nation economically and
militarily, unless the Dems get control. Old Joe said publicly this week we should end
the sanctions on Iran and help them out, just as we have them on the ropes.
Pelosi is disgusting, and again proves she is really dumb. She and Schiff are separately
launching committees and commissions to investigate what the administration is doing
wrong . Do they really think the voters are going to want to listen to this garbage again.
There is lots of oversight in the bill and transparency, and her political games are not what
anyone wants to hear. Nobody wants to hear from Schiff ever again. If the Dems would
spend their time trying to cooperate, instead of investigate, and if they would have not
wasted a week trying to load the bill with left wing crap, a lot of people would already
have money in their pockets. Pelosi also wants to end SALT because she knows the big
Dem cities and states like NY are in deep fiscal trouble due to liberal spending programs
like NY paying the tuition for illegal immigrants. Cuomo may sound good every morning,
but the reality is when he says the state is broke, he is the one at fault for all the left wing
programs he has started, and his refusal to allow a pipeline to allow in natural gas and
fracking.
Pelosi knows these states need to raise money or cut programs the left put in place, so she
likely figures if there is no SALT then they can raise property taxes. Reality is SALT is
not going away. This is exactly why Republicans put it in the tax bill. The Dem govs and
mayors finally need to face reality and cut out the waste of money programs. Soon the
ridiculously expensive pensions they gave to the unions will be unable to pay liabilities.
There will be no money to have the state make contributions. Expect this to blow up in a
year or two the way it already has in NJ and IL. Then it will get really ugly.
Cuomo is not going to be the candidate. He is really a very left wing politician who has
done some very bad things in NY that has led to a lot of rich guys moving out. He has
ruined the state financially, and with the no bail law which has resulted in a massive rise
in crime in NYC in a few months since the law until Covid stopped that. Cuomo knows
he is not electable which is why he never ran. The Dems are flailing since old Joe has
shown himself to have real mental issues.
I was a naval officer. The captain of the Roosevelt showed very poor judgement and
deserved to be relieved. The issue is, the Navy Secy should have let the admirals handle
it after the crew was offloaded. Captains do not send such letters in a public email format.
They call for a conference call with top Navy brass if things are so desperate.
I continue to get a steam of emails with all sorts of fake news. One that keeps arriving
suggests the virus never hit Beijing so it was all a Chinese conspiracy. Nonsense. It is very
likely the virus or an infected bat escaped from that lab which is 300 yards from that
market. It is likely US intelligence knows how that happened. But now is not the time to
start a war of accusations with China. The world needs to solve the threat first. What
happens later is another thing. Keep in mind Trump needs to do phase 2 with China on
trade. I suspect that is why he is being very circumspect about how the virus started.
China has proven to the world that it is despicable and totally untrustworthy. Xi may
become under enormous pressure internally as things proceed in China. Nothing good
has come from this for China, so stop thinking they did this intentionally. They are big
losers in all this.
Stay safe and follow the guidelines. Stay home.
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