Wednesday, December 26, 2018

Keep On Investigating and Keep A Cloud Over The White House. Trump Gives Galston, Gallstones.Can Erdogan Be Trusted? It Did On Wednesday.



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http://safeyoutube.net/w/7HJe
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Keep on investigating keeps the cloud of uncertainty over The White House, gives comfort to the Trump Haters and continues to provide cover for those who want Trump out of The Oval Office.

Has Mueller become the real villain?(See 1 below.)

Tom Fitton: What could Mueller's final report reveal?



Judicial Watch President Tom Fitton weighs in on the special counsel probe's impact over the last year and what it could mean for Mueller's final report, reportedly expected by February.
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Israel attacks Damascus. Russia not happy. (See 2 below.)
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More PC nonsense on Obama's part now being corrected. (See 3 below.)
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Trump gives Galston, Gallstones.

Obama stated Erdogan was his closest friend but that relationship did not blossom. Now Trump seems to have accomplished what Obama sought but is Erdogan trustworthy? (See 4 below.)

And:

The opposing thought: "Retreat from Syria will Cause Region to Combust

By Sarah N. Stern
Founder and President, EMET

"As I write these words, some 2,200 U.S. servicemen and women are packing up their bags to leave Syria within the next 24 hours. This is perhaps the most ruinous idea for the region since Obama’s 2015 Iranian nuclear deal. Both ideas have emboldened, enriched and empowered Iran—the greatest regional threat not just to Israel, but to the United States, which is patently apparent in their regime’s hostile rhetoric."

Meanwhile:

In the final analysis, perhaps Trump's biggest problem, beyond his quirky  personality,  Tweeting and Democrats led by Schumer and Pelosi, is that he is unique in being one of the few presidents to implement his campaign pledges.  Therefore, when he does things, though we should not be surprised, we are shocked.

Also, the way he carries them out is unorthodox and that gives his detractors plenty of  additional ammunition, as f they needed more than they already have.
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It did Wednesday! (See 4 below.)
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1)

Are the Investigations the Cover-Up?

Those of us who have been paying attention know that serious crimes were committed at the highest levels of government in an attempt to exonerate Hillary Clinton and frame Donald Trump.  There was collusion between government agencies, including collusion with foreign agents, to illegally influence the 2016 Presidential election.  There is enough evidence on the table to be confident of these claims.
And those of us who care about rule of law, who want to see justice done to the criminals in this conspiracy, have been waiting for years to see that happen.  We hear that these serious matters are being investigated.  We hear that there are whistle blowers inside the government who want to come forward and expose the corruption.  We hear that there are many, many more documents which will substantiate our worst fears about one of the greatest scandals in the history of our country.
We have been assured that there are several investigations looking into the various aspect of this abuse of power.  Inspector General Michael Horowitz, prosecutor John Huber, and others are looking into the corruption.  Mueller is supposedly tasked with exposing foreign influence on the Presidential election.
But what if the ‘investigations’ are really the cover-up? What if the investigations are carefully structured to protect criminal actions rather than expose them? What if the investigations are actually being used to hide evidence from the citizenry?
Peter Strzok, Andrew McCabe and others discussed the need for an “insurance policy” in case Trump won.  Was this “insurance policy” intended to protect deep-state criminals from exposure?  Mueller’s role is not to investigate collusion with foreign agents, or he would be investigating Christopher Steele and his Russian sources, along with the foreigners who worked with our government to infiltrate the Trump campaign.  He would investigate the illegal funding of Steele’s lies and how the lies were fed to the public by ‘bad cops’ and complicit media.  This is obviously not the goal of Mueller’s team.
Mueller’s key role is to have nearly absolute control over what information is released to investigators or the public.  Mueller determines what Horowitz and Huber can see. Mueller can hide anything he wants by claiming that release of the information would hinder his ‘investigation’.  He has given Rod Rosenstein a list of lines of inquiry that will not be allowed.  Rosenstein, who volunteered to be part of the soft coup, is happy to comply.  We have witnessed Rosenstein repeatedly refuse to turn over documents to Congress, flagrantly obstructing its oversight role.
What is the most effective way to hide the truth and protect the deep-state criminals? It’s the never-ending Mueller investigation.  Sure, Mueller’s team is still in the business of promoting the Trump-Russia fiction, but the most important role of this ‘investigation’ may be to obstruct any real investigation.
Conspiracy theories become conspiracy facts when enough evidence piles up to support the theory.  Consider this evidence, starting before the election:
  • Comey wrote a letter exonerating Hillary from her very intentional crimes long before she or key witnesses were interviewed.
  • Hillary’s key co-conspirators were given immunity, allowed to share attorneys, sit in on each other’s depositions, and even destroy evidence.  This was a sham investigation.
  • Hillary’s influence peddling through the Clinton Foundation was effectively swept under the rug.  The Clintons enriched themselves by selling future favors, often to foreign entities.  The foundation has been called “The Biggest Charity Fraud Ever”.
  • The Trump-Russia collusion narrative was developed as part of the effort to undermine Trump. It was not started by any actionable intelligence.  Spies were placed in the Trump campaign to aid the false narrative and to allow further illicit intelligence gathering.
  •  Spying on the Trump campaign was authorized by presenting fraudulent, hearsay evidence to FISA Court judges.  This criminal act led to many other criminal acts including rampant “unmasking” of American citizens associated with Trump.  Comey and Rosenstein both played roles in FISA abuse. White House officials did much of the unmasking.
  • On September 28, 2016, Peter Strzok texted Lisa Page that “hundreds of thousands” of email messages from Anthony Weiner’s computer had been turned over to the FBI by U.S. Attorneys who were conducting an investigation into Weiner’s sex crimes.  This was a treasure trove of information about Huma and Hillary.  The FBI immediately hid the information for a month while they figured out how to whitewash it to protect Hillary.  The bomb-control team successfully defused another bomb.  Surely, they expected a future reward from President H.R. Clinton.
Inspector General Horowitz’s June report had the goal of soft-peddling criminal behavior.  The report said that some unfortunate things were done, but there was no reason to think that bias played a key role in important decisions.  It did not find fault with things like granting immunity to the man who lied to the FBI and destroyed Hillary’s illegal server.  As we have learned, lying to the FBI can be fine, depending on who does the lying.  Destroying subpoenaed evidence is okay too, at times.
Horowitz’ public statement about his toothless report was followed by FBI Director Christopher Wray telling us not to worry about a thing because he intended to schedule a day when FBI agents would have a meeting to discuss bias.  Okay then -- I guess that takes care of it.
Last year, when members of Congress were rightly frustrated about evidence being hidden, there were increasing calls for a special prosecutor to investigate surveillance abuses by the Obama administration, the shady Uranium One deal, and the Clinton Foundation’s influence peddling.  The idea of appointing a truly independent prosecutor was thwarted by Jeff Sessions, who appointed a career insider to do the investigation instead.  Sessions promised that an Obama holdover in Utah, John Huber, would do a “full, complete and objective evaluation of these matters.” 
At this point, there is every reason to believe that the purpose of Huber’s investigation is to hide the truth, not to find it; to protect the criminals, not to charge them.   The key witnesses in each of the matters under investigation have not even been contacted.  It appears that no grand juries have been empaneled.  Tom Fitton, of Judicial Watch says, “Huber wasn’t tapped to investigate anything”, he was just “a distraction”.
What we are witnessing here is a carefully planned and orchestrated cover-up of a series of very serious crimes.  The deep swamp is pretending to investigate the deep swamp. 
This cover-up would not be possible if the mainstream media were honest and aggressive fact-finders, but they actually function as a branch of the Democratic Party.  The cover-up would fail if Republicans were unified in absolutely demanding to see all the evidence that is currently being hidden, but Republican ‘leaders’ do not unify and fight hard for anything.  They appear to be comfortable with losing this battle.
Victors write the accepted history of events.  It is possible that the story here will be that good men like Strzok, Comey, Rosenstein, and Mueller protected America from a vast right-wing conspiracy.  Donald Trump, the victim of most of the crimes, will be portrayed as the villain
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2) The skies of Damascus lit up as the Israeli Air Force allegedly struck arms depots belonging to Hezbollah and Iran. A US defense official told Newsweek that several senior Hezbollah leaders were targeted while boarding a plane bound for Iran, though some reports suggested the plane took off just before the strike. The Jerusalem Post examines why Hezbollah personalities were traveling to Iran from Damascus instead of directly from Beirut.
Russian officials denounced the attack, accusing Israel of endangering passengers on two civilian air craft without offering any specifics. One Syrian rocket was intercepted over the Israeli town of Hadera.
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3)

Obama’s Racial Preferences Made Schools Dangerous

Education Secretary Betsy DeVos ends a policy that subordinated safety to political correctness.

By Jason L. Riley

There are some interviews a journalist never forgets. I remember the time a father in Harlem explained to me why he had pulled his son out of the neighborhood public school and enrolled him in a nearby charter school.


The father was tall and thin. He kept both hands in his pockets as we stood talking, but he had a very expressive face. I thought he was going to tell me that the charter school had smaller classes or better graduation rates. Instead, he wanted to talk about something most parents take for granted when they send Johnny and Susie off to school each morning: physical safety.
He didn’t take it for granted. He told me the atmosphere at the old school had been chaotic, that bullying was rampant, and that his son, a sixth-grader at the time, had become terrified of the place. One day the boy was attacked by other students in the school lavatory, and the father got a call to pick him up from the hospital. It was the final straw. “I didn’t know anything about charters,” said the father. “I was just looking for an escape.” After the new school assured him his child would not have to worry each day about being assaulted by his classmates, he was sold.
I thought about that family last week when news broke that Education Secretary Betsy DeVos was revoking an Obama-era policy on school discipline. In 2014 the Obama administration sent school districts “guidance” letters that essentially threatened federal action if black suspension rates weren’t reduced. The letter stated that even if a school’s suspension policy “is neutral on its face—meaning that the policy itself does not mention race—and is administrated in an evenhanded manner,” the district could still face a federal civil-rights investigation if the policy “has a disparate impact, i.e., a disproportionate and unjustified effect on students of a particular race.”
Put another way, the administration was demanding racial parity in school discipline, regardless of who was being disruptive, which is as silly as demanding racial parity in police arrests, regardless of who’s committing crimes.
The result is that more schools have been disciplining fewer students in order to achieve racial balance in suspension rates and stay out of trouble with the federal government. Civil-rights lawsuits are embarrassing—to be accused of racial discrimination is often tantamount to being found guilty of it. They’re also expensive to fight, and the federal government has far more resources than any school district. The easier course for schools is to pretend that students from different racial and ethnic groups misbehave at similar rates. School safety becomes secondary.
In Oklahoma City, principals told teachers not to request a suspension “unless there was blood.” After school districts in Los Angeles and Chicago softened their policies to curb suspensions, teachers reported more disorder, and students reported feeling less safe. Following a similar move in Philadelphia, truancy increased and academic achievement fell. Schools in Wisconsin that followed the guidance also saw subsequent reductions in math and reading proficiency. Like other liberal advocates of school-discipline reform, Arne Duncan, who was serving as President Obama’s education secretary when the guidance was issued, insisted that blacks are suspended at higher rates than other groups only because school officials are racially biased. “It’s not caused by differences in children,” he said. “It is adult behavior that needs to change.”
Yet many of the schools where these uneven discipline rates persist have minority principals and no shortage of minority teachers and administrators. What would be their motive for singling out black and brown kids for suspensions and expulsions, unless those students’ behavior warrants it? And why shouldn’t we expect to find varying rates of misbehavior among racial and ethnic groups in school, when that is exactly what we find outside school?
The bigger problem with these anti-suspension crusades is that they ultimately harm the groups they are supposed to help. After New York City made it more difficult to remove troublemakers from the classroom, schools with the highest percentages of minority students were more likely to experience an increase in fighting, gang activity and drug use. A federal report on school crime and safety released last year by the National Center for Education Statistics found that 25% of black students nationwide reported being bullied, the highest proportion of any racial or ethnic group.
Some kids go to school to learn, while others go to generate disorder. If we want to narrow racial gaps in academic achievement, policies ought to prioritize the needs of the former—and a school stripped of its ability to effectively discipline students will be hard-pressed to effectively teach them. Don’t believe me? I know a father in Harlem you should talk to.
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4)

Trump Isn’t as Good as His Word

Allies can’t work with the U.S. unless they can trust it to follow through on promises.



In a telephone call about Syria two weeks ago, President Trump reportedly told Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, “You know what? It’s yours. I’m leaving,” upending his administration’s strategy and setting in motion events that culminated in the resignation of Defense Secretary Jim Mattis.
These events remind us of some ancient truths we often take for granted.
When we make a commitment, those who trust it make decisions that they would not otherwise have made. They may risk their fortunes, their honor and even their lives, relying on our word. If we break it, they may lose everything. And when they do, we are responsible.
As a presidential candidate, Mr. Trump campaigned against U.S. involvement in Syria. As president, he did not immediately alter established policy, focusing instead on immigration, the Affordable Care Act, tax cuts and judicial nominations through 2017. But Mr. Trump never abandoned his doubts about this policy. In unscripted remarks at a rally last April, he said: “We’ll be coming out of Syria, like, very soon. Let the other people take care of it now.”
Mr. Mattis persuaded the president to hold the withdrawal off for six months. National security adviser John Bolton took the lead in crafting a Syria strategy with three objectives—defeating Islamic State, establishing a new Syrian government, and inducing the Iranians to leave. Taken together, these goals implied the indefinite presence of U.S. troops.
In September, Mr. Bolton and other officials announced this new policy and assured all parties that it enjoyed the president’s support. There was no reason to doubt their sincerity, which made Mr. Trump’s declaration last week even more shocking.
The withdrawal will abandon Syria’s Kurds, who have borne the brunt of the battle against Islamic State, to the tender mercies of the Turks, who view them as terrorists. It will expose Syrians in Idlib and elsewhere to renewed attack from Bashar Assad’s forces. It will leave the Israelis face-to-face with the threatening Iranian presence in Syria. It betrays everyone who relied on the word of the U.S. And it hands a major victory to Vladimir Putin, who sees Syria as the linchpin of his effort to restore Russian influence in the Middle East.
It is possible, I suppose, that Mr. Trump does not understand the difference between the government of the U.S. and a family business, and so does not understand why his mercurial behavior inflicts so much damage. When you are in charge of the executive branch, you cannot do everything on your own. You need an orderly policy process and senior officials who can implement the results of this process. These officials cannot be effective unless they can credibly claim to be acting on your behalf and with your support. When your national security adviser announces that a policy enjoys your imprimatur, the world will take him at his word—unless you contradict him and pull back the policy. Silence implies consent.
An orderly policy process is also a president’s best protection against nasty surprises. During such a process, all arguments for and against a proposed policy will be aired, and the likely reactions of different groups with a stake in the outcome can be anticipated. The president is then in the position to make a considered judgment that objections cannot easily destabilize.
Contrast this with the seat-of-the pants decision-making the White House currently practices. Last Tuesday, press secretary Sarah Sanders announced that to keep the government open, Mr. Trump was willing to withdraw his request for funding for a wall on the southern border. Senior White House officials were sent to Capitol Hill to negotiate on this basis, and Congress agreed on a bipartisan bill. But faced with criticism from conservative lawmakers and media personalities, the president abruptly changed course, making a government shutdown inevitable.
An orderly process would have probed the reaction of these conservatives prior to Ms. Sanders’s announcement. Mr. Trump could have decided to back off or, alternatively, to proceed despite conservative opposition. In either case, administration officials could have relied on the president, and Congress could have relied on the White House’s representations.
During the Cuban Missile Crisis, President John F. Kennedy sent former Secretary of State Dean Acheson to show photos of the Russian sites to Charles de Gaulle. The French president did not look at the pictures. “The word of the president of the United States is good enough for me,” he said.
Can one imagine a world leader today taking President Trump at his word?
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4)Maybe the stock market will finally get over its nonsense panic this week. Here is some reality. 85%  of trades lately have been by algo's. The programs are triggered by Fed increases, oil prices, yield curve, and other things that the young traders and computer scientists programmed in, but do not necessarily mean recession or even a downturn is coming. These look at data triggers that do not take a human view of the whole picture. The insanity in DC with the Dems wanting tax increases and socialistic healthcare and more regulation is not helping. Despite all this, consumer confidence is still at an all time high. Retail sales are up 5.1% over last year, sales at bricks and mortar locations grew 3.3%, and overall sales may complete the year up even more with last minute and post-Christmas shopping. That is a new record high level of sales, just under $900 billion. Amazon and Walmart are going to surprise on the upside. Consumers are not bothered by the shutdown, the market, nor the latest Fed interest rate hike. It is likely margins at retailers are improved more than analysts think. While the press blathers about interest rates, reality is they are now at 2.75% on the ten year, down from 3.2% recently, despite the Fed increase. Mortgage rates are now at 4.63%, down from 4.8%. 4.6% is extremely low historically, so not a real detriment to home buyers. Despite all the negative stories about housing, multifamily starts are doing fine, causing total housing starts in November to be up 3.2%. While single family is down somewhat, it may be that many more people, especially younger people, prefer to rent anyway, and maybe there is a change in the housing market due to that. I do not know, but if young people prefer to rent, as some have suggested, then maybe single family housing is reflective of the real demand today and mortgage rates are not the determinant many suggest. A total of 1.26 million new units of housing are coming on line this year, so it is not the debacle you read about, it is just that over 400,000 are multifamily. Permits for multi were up 22% in November.  That is a somewhat misleading since permits fluctuate all over the place, but that suggests housing is not crashing. Single family permits are also up last month. Labor costs are not rising much, only .9%, but that is due to materially improved productivity due largely to technology investments. Labor costs are not creating inflation. Productivity numbers are historically inaccurate, so data is not reliable, but the pre-tax profit margins of companies are increasing, which does suggest productivity is increasing since cash wages (as opposed to labor costs) are up over 3%, which means well above inflation. The combination of tax cuts, wage increases, and much lower oil and gas prices has left families with very real increases in cash income. A complete change from under Obama. Real family income is rising nicely which has led to materially increased savings, and increased spending. Most people refinanced their mortgages to much  lower rates over the past few years, so mortgage payments are not the financial drag for families they were in 2008. This leaves more cash to save and spend. There are no more subprime nor teaser loans. All good for the economy. Lastly, the yuan was allowed to float down a little to partially offset tariffs, so the combination of the rising dollar, producers in China eating some of the tariffs, and importers eating some, has led to end prices to consumers not rising as much as some had predicted. Good for retail and consumer spend. Banks report they are still lending and not pulling back, so credit remains available, which means there is no recession in the near term. Some analysts predict a credit event in 2019, but reality is most corporations have no material growth in interest costs, and increasing earnings has led to generally good debt coverage ratios.  While there is a risk that companies have taken on a huge amount of debt over the past few years, as have countries, the debt is at rates that are near historic lows at a time when earnings for many are rising. If there is a recession, then this excess level of debt could become a real problem, but earnings will have to drop a lot for there to be a major problem. With the ten year still below 3%, most real estate and corporate debt is manageable, even in a slowdown.  If Trump would shut up about the Fed, and if Fed officials give more speeches saying they are not set on more increases in 2019, the market would relax.

As always, you have to look at the real underlying data, and not rely on the histrionics of analysts and the press. The economy remains very good, and while GDP will grow more slowly in 2019 than 2018, it will still grow at 2.7%, or around that. That is still good, and earnings will still grow well, 8%-10%, meaning stock prices will recover. A survey of analysts found almost nobody is really projecting a recession in 2019, and many of the grown up money managers think 2019 stock prices will rise. The government shut down will end soon, and nobody really cares. We all just chalk it up to the usual stupidity of DC. In summary, the market has panicked and is oversold, and possibly that is because 85% of trades are executed by algorithms. It is unclear, but if you just hang in, you will be fine, unless you are a short term investor.

Trump’s Syria decision is one of those terrible historic moments we will live to regret. It is just like Obama in Iraq. Ignoring the generals and advisors, and doing something really stupid. It will upset the entire balance that has been reached in the area, and it will allow ISIS to survive just as it was getting close to being wiped out. Iran will now be able to push further into the area along with Syrian troops, and this will be a strategic loss for the US in the fight to contain Iran. Trump seems to be trusting Erdogan, which is hard to understand.  He is a dedicated Islamist, and not our friend except when it suits his goals. The loss of Mattis is very bad. In the end this terrible decision may have cost Trump reelection.

Japan is actually experiencing a decline in population. 70% of 18-34 year old men are not married nor in a relationship. Births in 2018 were 25,000 less than in 2017. A sizable number of people are now aging, so there is a labor problem already that is going to get a lot worse. Economic growth will suffer, and the burden of covering the old will become onerous as the birth rate continues to decline. Long term, Japan has to start letting in foreign workers, or it is in serious long term trouble.

In the US, 47% of people who enter college never graduate, but many leave with debt.  Result is their earning power is diminished and they have debt, just as they enter the age to start jobs, then to raise a family and buy a house. This is just one contributing factor as to  why first time buyers cannot afford a house.

In the US there are now robo online credit granting programs for mortgages at some lenders. The program uses a wide set of totally objective data, but having nothing to do with race. The results are fascinating. Here are machines making mortgage credit decisions, and the online lenders charge 5.3 basis points more than humans for similar loans to the same people who are minorities. They also charge more in up front fees and points. While the robo lenders are more likely to grant a loan by a little, they charge more. So all the talk about discrimination in mortgage lending is possibly perception, not reality.

At another time, I will get further into the topic of why the campuses have gone nuts with anti- free speech, and all the protests about feeling “unsafe” because someone said a word or phrase the kiddies felt made them “uncomfortable”. There are now studies that show this really began in 2012 and accelerated by 2015, which is the year the smartphone generation fully landed on campus, and all the millennials had graduated. Smartphones have isolated kids from human interface, and made them far more vulnerable, especially girls. Everyone wants to be “liked”. and “friended”, and they communicate by text or email, and not face to face. Group think has become the norm. Nobody wants to be the outsider attacked by the group thought. It then becomes easy with smartphones to get a mob to go protest or even attack  a speaker or professor. The number of students who seek mental health aid on campus is rising dramatically, especially for depression.  I have seen kids in restaurants sit across from each other and never speak- they are busy texting. There is serious psychological damage happening to young people, and it appears privacy is the far lesser issue than the psychological damage it is doing to an entire generation, and to university education, and politics. Unfortunately college deans then coddle and support the kids demand for “safe spaces”, and speech codes that are suppressing free speech. Professors are fired because they taught something that is considered “offensive” to some group who then attack on smartphones and flash mobs. The deans take the exact wrong approach to do  with these kids, by supporting these actions an d letting them get away with protesting speech and speakers. Go read “The Coddling of The American Mind”. It is not an easy read, but it will lay this all out. We have a major problem, and Congress needs to make everyone much more aware.  Regulation may not be the answer, but maybe if parents understood what is happening they can be motivated to act.
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