Thursday, December 20, 2018

Is Trump Too Linear? Always A Cost. Wall and Car Brakes.


When you are congratulated by Putin, Pelosi and Erdogan you should realize you may  have screwed up big time.  Then when your Sec.of Defense, Jim Mattis, one of the best appointments you could have made, says he should resign so you can have someone who is more compatible with your thinking, perhaps you have really have gone over the hill.

Then when you decide to pull out of Iraq you have to wonder what the longer term implicatiosn might be.

I understand Trump wants others to share/assume burdens that impact them as well.  I understand his desire to live up to his campaign pledges.  I certainly understand his desire to reduce American military casualties. For every action, however, there is a re-action and one has to balance the equities to avoid serous repercussions.  I am concerned Trump is too linear when it comes to these latest troop withdrawal decisions.

Mattis is cautious. he is no fool, he has vast experience. He is a cool headed hawk. I like that, plus he is a battle hardened Marine!  Semper Fi. (See 1, 1a, 1b  and 1c below.)
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To sustain life humans must eat and drink water. There is a cost .

When humans want to live green there also is a cost. (See 2 below.)
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When it comes to a wall as a deterrent and my liberal friends say it will not work I suggest that at least it slows those who wish to climb it and with cameras it gives human ICE agents more time to apprehend and arrest. 

No one suggests walls are perfect. They are like brakes on a car.  It slows the process down and that is a fact.

The liberal argument is the same they make about energy pipelines.  Thousands of miles are already in the ground and functioning. Just another opportunity to create a cause and  discord and raise money.  In a politically incorrect word it is all "bullshit!"
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Dick
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1)Dear Mr. President:


I have been privileged to serve as our country's 26th Secretary of Defense which has allowed me to serve alongside our men and women of the Department in defense of our citizens and our ideals. I am proud of the progress that has been made over the past two years on some of the key goals articulated in our National Defense Strategy: putting the Department on a more sound budgetary footing, improving readiness and lethality in our forces, and reforming the Department's business practices for greater performance. Our troops continue to provide the capabilities needed to prevail in confict and sustain strong U.S. global infuence.
One core belief I have always held is that our strength as a nation is inextricably linked to the strength of our unique and comprehensive system of alliances and partnerships. While the US remains the indispensable nation in the free world, we cannot protect our interests or serve that role effectively without maintaining strong alliances and showing respect to those allies. Like you, I have said from the beginning that the armed forces of the United States should not be the policeman of the world. Instead, we must use all tools of American power to provide for the common defense, including providing effective leadership to our alliances. 29 democracies demonstrated that strength in their commitment to fighting alongside us following the 9-11 attack on America. The Defeat-ISIS coalition of 74 nations is firther proof. 
Similarly, I believe we must be resolute and unambiguous in our approach to those countries whose strategic interests are increasingly in tension with ours. It is clear that China and Russia, for example, want to shape a world consistent with their authoritarian model gaining veto authority over other nations' economic, diplomatic, and security decisions to promote their own interests at the expense of their neighbors, America and our allies. That is why we must use all the tools of American power to provide for the common defense.
My views on treating allies with respect and also being clear-eyed about both malign actors and strategic competitors are strongly held and informed by over four decades of immersion in these issues. We must do everything possible to advance an international order that is most conducive to our security, prosperity and values, and we are strengthened in this effort by the solidarity of our alliances.
Because you have the right to have a Secretary of Defense whose views are better aligned with yours on these and other subjects, I believe it is right for me to step down from my position. The end date for my tenure is February 28, 2019, a date that should allow suffcient time for a successor to be nominated and con?rmed as well as to make sure the Department?s interests are properly articulated and protected at upcoming events to include Congressional posture hearings and the NATO Defense Ministerial meeting in February. Further, that a full transition to a new Secretary of Defense occurs well in advance of the transition of Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in September in order to ensure stability Within the Department.
I pledge my full effort to a smooth transition that ensures the needs and interests of the 2.15 million Service Members and 732,079 civilians receive undistracted attention of the Department at all times so that they can ful?ll their critical, round?the?clock mission to protect the American people. I very much appreciate this opportunity to serve the nation and our men and women in uniform.

1a)  No Reason to Panic’ says IDF Gen. Re: Trump’s Pulling out of Syria
by Maj. Gen. (ret.) Amos Yadlin via Twitter.com

Maj. Gen. (ret.) Amos Yadlin (pictured above, photo Twitter), Executive Director of Tel Aviv University's Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), former head of IDF Military Intelligence and director of the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University.
The Major General tweeted the following:
Tweet 1/8
Trump’s declaration on US forces withdrawal from Syria is a significant step, but there’s no reason to panic. 2000 US troops came to Syria to fight against ISIS and had no authorities to act against Iran. 
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Syria, Israel was and remains the only actor enforcing red lines on the Iranians.
Israel has always been defending itself, and seeks no foreign forces’ defense. Not even by our greatest friend and ally – the US.
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The important role of America is to push Iran diplomatically (Pompeo’s 12 demands) and by sanctions, and it’s important they continue, effectively and determinately.
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Driving this withdrawal decision are probably the President’s drive to decrease US presence and casualties, the US people’s fatigue from the nation’s long wars, but perhaps mainly what looks like a “grand deal” with Turkey.
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The deal may including withdrawing the US protection of the Kurdish areas in northeast Syria, opening the door to Turkish military action there, blocking Turkey’s acquisition of Russian S400 air defense system and replacing it with $3.5 billion US Patriot system.
Trump’s decision embolden its rivals which are committed to the region on the long term: Russia, Iran, Assad and ISIS.
And more- allowing the F35 deal to move forward. It may also include lower Turkish profile on the Khashouqji, and possible steps on Fathullah Gulen, Erdogan’s nemesis staying in the US.
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Trump’s statement came surprisingly, despite most of his advisors’ position. Such abrupt US turns, seen by many as betraying its Kurdish partners in the war on ISIS, undermines the US’ reputation and credibility.
Tweet 8/8 and lastIn summary, this step has an effect on Israel, but there is no reason for immediate or military concern.  

1b)

Avigdor Liberman says move a boon for Iran and its proxies; his predecessor Ya’alon calls for US recognition of Israeli sovereignty in Golan ‘as an expression of continued support.’
Israeli soldiers guard at the Quneitra border crossing with Syria in the Golan Heights on September 27, 2018. (Basel Awidat/Flash90)
Former defense minister Avigdor Liberman warned Thursday that US President Donald Trump’s decision to pull all American troops out of Syria could lead to a northern war between Israel and Iranian-backed forces.
Trump announced Wednesday that American soldiers would leave Syria as the Islamic State jihadist group had been “beaten.” The planned pullout was criticized by officials in the United States and Israel, who warned it could undercut efforts to counter Iran in Syria.
He said the US pullout would boost the morale of Syria’s President Bashar Assad, Iran and the Lebanese terror group Hezbollah, as the latter two fight on behalf of the Syrian regime in that country’s civil war.

Yisrael Beytenu party leader Avigdor Liberman speaks at the Globes Business Conference in Jerusalem on December 19, 2018. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)
Liberman, who resigned last month to protest the government’s response to violence in the Gaza Strip, also said the US decision would lead to a major strategic shift in the region.
“This is 2,000 soldiers who supervised the passage between Iraq and Syria. We’re now talking about contiguous Shiite land between Iran, Iraq and Syria,” he said.
Moshe Ya’alon, Liberman’s predecessor as defense minister, said Israel would now face a “more complex” security situation in north.
“It is in our power to deal with the new reality if we continue our active policy in accordance with our red lines and national interests,” he wrote on Twitter Thursday.

Outgoing Defense Minister and Likud member, Moshe Ya’alon, speaks at a press conference in which he announces his resignation from the Knesset, in the Kirya, the Tel Aviv IDF headquarters, on May 20, 2016. (Miriam Alster/Flash90)
Ya’alon said the US has “many other ways to act and influence” despite not having troops on ground. He called for the Trump administration to recognize sovereignty over the Golan Heights, which Israel captured from Syria in the 1967 Six Day War and later annexed in a move not recognized internationally.
“Not as ‘compensation’ but rather as an expression of continued support,” he said.
Israel in recent years has repeatedly warned of Iranian efforts to establish a military presence in Syria and smuggle weapons to its proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon. During this time, the Israeli military has carried out hundreds of airstrikes in Syria against Iran-linked targets.
“Israel can’t allow Iran’s entrenchment in Syria. We’ll act at almost any price to prevent this,” Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon told Army Radio on Thursday.

US forces armored vehicles drive near the village of Yalanli, on the western outskirts of the northern Syrian city of Manbij, on March 5, 2017. (Delil Souleiman/AFP)
The announcement of the US withdrawal from Syria, which reportedly came after a phone call between Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, also sparked concern over the fate of American-backed Kurdish fighters in northeastern Syria who have been battling Islamic State.
Turkey has accused Kurdish militiamen of having links to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, which along with the US and others it lists as a terror group.
“From the perspective of the Kurds there is serious harm here,” Transportation Minister Israel Katz told Israel Radio regarding the US pullout. “Luckily for us Israel isn’t the Kurds.”
Ahead of an expected offensive by Turkey on areas held by the Kurds in Syria, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar was quoted saying by Reuters on Thursday that Kurdish fighters “will be buried in their ditches when the time comes.”

1c) Iranian Regime Faces Most Serious Threat in 40 Years with Worsening Economy and Strengthening Opposition Forces
Ayatollah Khamenei Warns: Enemies Seek to Overthrow the Regime.
Former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has recently become one of the most vocal critics of the Iranian regime, while Reza Pahlavi, exiled son of the late Shah, has been stepping up his activities in the United States for putting an end to the rule of the ayatollahs, and a considerable percentage of the Iranian people are distancing themselves from the government.
With all of this going on, the leaders in Tehran not only feel that the threats to overthrow their government are become more tangible than they have ever been, but the leaders of Iran are actually referring to this possibility openly, and the various factions within the regime are in total agreement that the government is facing a new, unprecedented situation.
On December 12, 2018, the supreme leader of the regime, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, called upon all government systems to be more alert than ever because, according to him, their enemies are scheming to turn the coming year into the year of the overthrow of the Iranian regime.
According to Khamenei, these enemies hoped that the summer of 2018 would be a “hot summer” for the Iranian regime. However, he said, now that the summer is behind us and the Iranian Islamic Republic draws closer to February 2019, when it enters its 40th year, all the signs and facts show that the enemies have postponed the deadline for the fulfillment of their schemes against Iran to the coming year – therefore making it a critical year.1
In an address to the Iranian Parliament on December 18, 2018, Mahmoud Alavi, minister of intelligence in Hassan Rouhani’s government, stated that the regime is facing a new, unprecedented situation, as not only enemy countries but also the intelligence services of the countries bordering Iran have rolled up their sleeves and are working directly against the Iranian regime.
Alavi expressed his surprise that even the neighboring countries that are the most friendly toward Iran have been working recently against the country and are supporting “terror groups” as much as they can, sending these groups money and assistance with military training and acquiring weapons.
The intelligence minister also admitted that the regime feels threatened by the Iranian opposition, which is growing more powerful around the world. According to him, during the past year alone, Iranian opposition groups held 64 conferences worldwide for the purpose of joining together and overcoming the internal differences among them.2, 3

The Son of the Shah Raises His Profile

Prince Reza Pahlavi, aged 57, son of the late Shah of Iran, has been one of the leading political activists over the past 40 years against the regime that ended his father’s rule in Iran. Recently, he has not only increased his activities in the United States, but he has even attracted unprecedented attention from the American press. His young followers around the world have created a new group named Farashgard, with the purpose of becoming more united around him.
The activities of the pro-Western prince, who is a graduate of top U.S. academic institutions and is fluent in French and English, as well as Farsi, his native language, have increased around the first anniversary of the outbreak of the riots during which hundreds of thousands of young Iranians, in more than 100 cities throughout Iran, shouted slogans in support of the prince, his father Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, and his grandfather Reza Shah. The mummified body of the founder of the Pahlavi dynasty, Reza Shah, was discovered at around the same time as the riots, openly causing panic among the leaders of the Islamic regime. They hid the mummy again in a concealed location to prevent the site from becoming a holy place for the growing number of Reza Pahlavi’s supporters among Iranian youth, who are repudiating the rule of the ayatollahs en masse.
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2)

Climate protests cost $91 billion in lost economic activity, chamber study finds

Keep it in the Ground activists target pipelines, fracking, terminals
- The Washington Time

Climate activists fighting to derail pipelines and other energy projects have blocked $91.9 billion in U.S. economic activity and hundreds of thousands of jobs, according to a new report.
“Infrastructure Lost: Why America Cannot Afford to ‘Keep It In the Ground,’” released by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Global Energy Institute, quantified the cost of projects delayed or canceled as a result of environmental protests.
The report analyzed 15 targeted projects, including the hotly contested Keystone XL pipeline, Constitution Pipeline, and Oregon LNG terminal, as well as New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s 2014 fracking ban.
In addition to $91.9 billion in lost economic activity, the protests cost nearly 730,000 job opportunities and $20 billion in tax revenue to federal, state and local governments.
“Unfortunately, a small but vocal group of activists is waging fights against these projects around the nation,” said Karen Harbert, the institute’s president and CEO. “Our new report demonstrates just how damaging that is to families, consumers, and American workers.”
Terry O’Sullivan, general president of the Laborers’ International Union of North America, said workers “have the skills, training and experience to build pipelines, power plants and terminals in an environmentally sensitive manner.”
“The obstruction we’re seeing from activist groups is costing our members jobs and the entire country opportunities,” he said.
Activists with Keep it in the Ground, a global protest movement backed by hundreds of environmental groups, have used tactics such as lawsuits, civil disobedience and even vandalism to block construction of energy projects, stop oil-and-gas lease sales, and push fossil-fuel divestment.
In a Dec. 14 post, the climate group 350.org ticked off its 2018 victories, including stalling the Canadian Trans Mountain and Keystone XL pipelines, as well as “further bans on fracking around the world” and “over 1,000 major divestment wins.”

“We know what it takes to stop this industry,” said 350.org’s May Boeve. “It is not a mystery, it is not magical. It is hard work. It requires organizing, mobilizing and campaigning — all of these things the climate movement knows how to do.”
Despite the economic impact of the protests, which was calculated through August 2018, the U.S. surpassed Russia this year to become the world’s largest crude oil producer and has led the world in natural-gas production since 2009.
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