Tuesday, December 5, 2017

Market Thoughts. Israeli Friend Fears Another Intifada. What We Have Learned From Mueller Investigation. Ironic: Alabama and Black Voters Have a Lot In Common.



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Yes, the domestic market is a bit long in the tooth and reports are some major domestic investors are seeking other markets while foreign investors seem to be pouring money into ours.  December, historically, is a good month for the market.

I still believe, energy, health care, some limited financial stocks and an assorted number of consumer stocks,, maybe Hormel and Starbucks, and a few technology laggards still make sense.

Others might include ECA, SU, BHI, SLB, KMI, BAC, AIG (longer shot), MRK, BMY, OPK (longer shot)  and CSCO.

Time will tell. It always does.
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A friend writes, not the time for Trump to bring about another Intafada.

I understand where Sherwin is coming from but neither can Israel allow hate to dictate its freedom to be respected as other nations. If not now, when?(See 1 and 1a below.)

Meanwhile, Israel strikes more targets in Syria.  Perhaps Assad will learn Russia may not be the protector he thought they were.
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What have we learned about the Mueller Investigation and not in any order of importance:

a) No evidence of Russian Collusion so now seeking obstruction of justice charge.

b) FBI and former Justice Department and even this one has politicized and prejudiced the investigation and continue to stonewall Congress, but nothing is fishy according to mass media zealots and Democrats who seek to impeach Trump on any flimsy charge they can muster.

c) Mueller's best/key witness has admitted to lying and the charge against him is a minor one relative to the purpose of the investigation.  If a prosecutor goes into court with their best witness an admitted a liar it does not look particularly good.

d)  Mueller continues to throw his line in the water and it drifts further from where he was supposed to fish but then gum shoes go wherever they wish and if they track the wrong  rug with dirt so be it.
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John Conyers decides it is time to retire but wants to keep being able to control his constituents and supports his son to be their next sexual harasser representative assuming apples do not fall far from the tree. (See 2 below.)
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If Roy Moore wins the vacated Senate seat in Alabama he has several things to thank for his victory.

a) Holier than though, hypocrite, sanctimonious Democrats and liberals.

b) Alabaman's  loyalty and their desire not to be pushed around by outsiders.

c) Their poor education system. (See 3 below.)

I find it ironical that Alabama and black voters have a lot in common . They love their own despite anything.
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Dick
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1)  President Trump:  Israel Does Not Need Another Intifada

By Sherwin Pomerantz

Rumor has it that later this week US President Trump will announce that the US officially recognizes Jerusalem, or some part thereof, as the capital of Israel but will stop short of announcing a move of the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.   I am one Israeli who would urge him not to make that statement.

The statement itself is not new.  In February 1992 former President Bill Clinton came out in support of recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.  But when he finally took office cooler heads prevailed and he never issued a formal proclamation to that effect.

But now the US has a president who wants to do everything he can to placate those who elected him.  So while he promised to move the US Embassy to Jerusalem if elected, President Trump has been reluctant to do so.  Instead he may decide to throw a bone to his constituency by declaring that the US officially recognizes Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.

Now, in fact, those of us living here already recognize that Jerusalem is Israel’s capital. The seat of government is in Jerusalem, the headquarters of all of the government ministries are here as are the Bank of Israel, the Israel Museum, the Supreme Court, and all of the national agencies that operate in the state such as Bituach Leumi (social security administration).  To those of us living here we do not need the recognition of any foreign power to give credence to the fact that this is our capital.

But our cousins living among us as well as our often belligerent neighbors will see such a move as sufficient to light the fires of the tinder that passes for their grudging acceptance of our presence here.  So what we are hearing now are the drums of yet another uprising, an intifada as they term it which, if the past is any indication, will only result in the loss of many lives, incredible property damage and billions of dollars in lost tourist revenue, among other things. 

In the run up to the decision, the Palestinian terror organization Hamas said it would incite a new intifada, or uprising, if the United States recognizes Jerusalem as Israel’s capital.  Hamas on Saturday issued a statement calling on Palestinians to “incite an uprising in Jerusalem so that this conspiracy does not pass. This decision would represent a U.S. assault on the city and give legitimacy to (Israel) over the city,” the statement added. “We call on the Palestinian people to stand as an impenetrable floodgate and a tall wall against this decision and renew the Jerusalem intifada.”

Those of us living here do not take these threats lightly.  While Arab governments around the region would probably moan and groan for a few days after such an announcement, their discomfort will dissipate. But, as we have seen all too many times previously, the government is not always able to control “the street.”  Based on experience all it would take is one unhappy incident to ignite a firestorm throughout the country.

Once that begins and blossoms, we know what happens next.  People die, property is destroyed, tourism plummets, airlines question whether the country is safe for their aircraft, and anti-Israel demonstrations take place world-wide.  Who needs that? 

What advantage does a presidential statement of this kind have for us? None!
Who benefits from such a statement?  Not us!

Is it important enough for us living here to pay the price for such a move?  No!

Do we need to attend yet more funerals of lives that were wasted because of this insanity? No!
Would we be any worse off if the President said nothing? No!

So, as the lawyers say at the end of a trial, I rest my case. 

Do us a favor Mr. President, spend your time dealing with your incredibly long list of domestic challenges and keep your mouth closed about us.  If you need to find ways to mollify your unhappy constituency, do so with domestic actions and not on the backs of those of us living here who will end up paying the price for your folly.

1a)  Trump Leads From Behind in Syria

John Kerry trusted Russia. The president should ask him how that worked out.

Mr. Trump apparently sees cooperation with the Russians as the best solution. On July 7, in Germany, Mr. Trump and Vladimir Putin announced a cease-fire in southwest Syria. On Nov. 11, in Vietnam, they issued a joint statement confirming “the importance of de-escalation areas as an interim step to reduce violence in Syria, enforce cease-fire agreements, facilitate unhindered humanitarian access, and set the conditions for the ultimate political solution to the conflict.” That ultimate political solution, they declared, should follow the guidelines set by United Nations Security Council Resolution 2254.
This sounds great at first: The resolution, passed in December 2015, sets timelines for cease-fires, a new constitution and a transitional government. Yet Bashar Assad, employing sieges and starvation, has prevented the delivery of humanitarian assistance to his own people. This—along with his barrel bombs and political obstructionism—has prevented any progress in achieving the resolution’s goals. The Russians and Iranians have only enabled him.
In November 2015, Secretary of State John Kerry reached an agreement on Syria with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. The agreed-to principles were incorporated in Resolution 2254 the following month. Later, Mr. Kerry would negotiate a joint operational center with the Russians to coordinate attacks in Syria—but the Russian onslaught against Aleppo in 2016 precluded its implementation. The Russians fulfilled none of their obligations, leading a frustrated Mr. Kerry to declare that Moscow and its allies have to decide whether “they are serious about implementing a United Nations Security Council resolution.”
Russia’s actions since have only proved it is not serious about Resolution 2254. The Trump administration might think it will be different this time, because the de-escalation zone in southwest Syria has been working. The administration clearly hopes to broaden the de-escalation zone and pursue a diplomatic solution. As Defense Secretary Jim Mattis explained in November, the U.S. can demilitarize the country area by area, until a diplomatic solution offers a way forward. While it would be good if this approach could work, the indicators aren’t positive.
Take the de-escalation zones: The one in southwestern Syria has worked, but only because it freed up the Assad regime and its Iranian allies to attack the other so-called de-escalation zones relentlessly. In one such area, Syrian regime cluster bombs have been hitting Eastern Ghouta, near Damascus. U.N. diplomat Jan Egeland has spoken of a “massive loss of civilian life” and declared that “there is only escalation in this de-escalation zone.” In a different zone, the town of Atarib was recently bombed, killing more than 50 civilians. Once the regime retakes these areas, it will surely turn its attention to southwestern Syria.
Also worrying: The day after the presidential joint statement last month, Mr. Lavrov declared that the departure of foreign forces called for in the recently concluded memorandum of principles between the U.S., Russia and Jordan did not apply to the “Iranian or pro-Iranian forces.”
Iran is also developing a front in Syria against Israel, with no sign of Russian opposition—despite talk of a buffer. During a recent visit to the Golan Heights, the local Israeli commander showed me a Quds Force-Hezbollah command post on a hill less than 4 miles away. Here is a conflict waiting to erupt.
There is little chance of the Russians implementing a peace agreement in good faith so long as they see no cost for noncompliance. The Trump administration could alter Mr. Putin’s calculus—and make the diplomatic process more credible—by conveying quietly that if the Russians will not stop the Assad-Shia expansion into the de-escalation zones, the U.S. will.
Boots on the ground wouldn’t be necessary. The U.S. already has air power in the region dwarfing what the Russians used to secure Assad and change the balance of power in Syria. Mr. Putin knows that. He wants Russia, not the U.S., to be seen as the arbiter of Syria’s future. If there are any doubts about this, consider his active diplomacy with Assad and the leaders of Iran and Turkey over the past few weeks.
John Kerry eventually realized that words alone would not get Mr. Putin to respond in Syria. Time will tell whether the Trump administration has learned that lesson.
Mr. Ross has held senior national security positions in several presidential administrations and is counselor at the Washington Institute.
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2) Degen Democrat Hangs It Up
     
  • by: Mallory Shellourne


Rep. John Conyers (D-Mich.), who for weeks has been the target of sexual misconduct allegations, announced on Tuesday that he will retire from the House.

Conyers, the lower chamber’s current longest-serving member, told a Detroit-area radio station that he is endorsing his son, John Conyers III, for his seat.

He said he was "retiring today."

Conyers's to retire comes after calls from numerous colleagues for his resignation. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) have both said Conyers should step aside in light of the sexual misconduct allegations leveled against him. Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.), the assistant Democratic leader who is also a member of the Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) with Conyers, has also said the Michigan lawmaker should resign.
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3) Roy Moore’s Liberal Enablers

If he wins, he can thank Al Franken and Jimmy Kimmel among others.


By  William McGurn, 
When Alabamans go to the polls a week from now in a special election to choose their next senator, not even Mrs. Roy Moore will be rooting as hard for her Republican husband as the junior senator from Minnesota, Al Franken.
The reason is simple. Mr. Franken knows that if Mr. Moore takes his Senate seat, it becomes less likely the former “Saturday Night Live” comic will have to relinquish his. And therein lies a larger tale about how the liberal opposition to Mr. Moore may be backfiring.
Until this race, plausible accusations that a candidate had engaged in sexual conduct with girls as young as 14 would be enough to sink most any man. Coming as these charges do amid a national sexual reckoning that has already brought down many powerful men hitherto thought untouchable, they ought to be even more potent.

But Mr. Moore is not sinking. To the contrary, at last check the Real Clear Politics polling average gives him a 2.6-point lead. A CBS News poll released this past weekend has him up by 6 points.

If Mr. Moore does win, it will be despite calls by Republicans and conservatives for him to step aside. The calls have come from Republican leaders such as Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Speaker Paul Ryan, among others.


Then again, the remaining GOP support, including that of Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey and now President Donald Trump, may carry more pull. Mr. Moore further benefits from the backing of the evangelical community, many of whose pastors have stuck with him.
But there’s another potent force in this race, which gets little media attention. These are the liberals who are enabling him. Let’s run through a short list:
• Bill Clinton . Remember the argument “It was only sex”? Or reporter Nina Burleigh saying she’d be happy to give then-President Clinton oral sex “just to thank him for keeping abortion legal”?
Some who backed Mr. Clinton now recognize that their unqualified support through all his lies and bad behavior leaves them in a poor position to lecture others about how to treat women, or why policy should not trump character. Now they are throwing Mr. Clinton under the bus to try to regain the moral high ground. How persuasive must Alabamans find this?
• Doug Jones. He is the Democrat in the race. When your rival is credibly accused of sexual misbehavior with underage girls, the race is yours to lose. And yet Mr. Jones is doing his best to do just that, over a classic Democratic blind spot: abortion.
Alabama is one of America’s most pro-life states. Mr. Jones might have expanded his appeal by opting for the Bill Clinton formula of “safe, legal and rare,” or supporting popular restrictions such as the ban after 20 weeks. Instead, Mr. Jones has opted for the Hillary Clinton view that abortion must be sacrosanct. If he ends up losing, abortion will be a big reason.
• Al Franken. On the hypocrisy front there’s plenty on all sides to go around. Still, it has to be hard for Alabama Republicans not to notice that they are being called on to reject their guy at a time when Democrats are keeping theirs.
• Jimmy Kimmel. Mr. Kimmel recently dispatched a comedian to heckle Mr. Moore at a rally at the Magnolia Springs Baptist Church. He succeeded in disrupting the event. Mr. Kimmel and Mr. Moore then got into a Twitter tiff after Mr. Moore suggested Mr. Kimmel put up his dukes, and Mr. Kimmel accepted.
Mr. Kimmel and his audience have had some good yucks at the expense of the local yokels. But again, just a guess that this may not be playing as well in Alabama.
• The national press corps. When Donald Trump tweets about “fake news,” the smart set groans. But just this weekend, ABC News suspended Brian Ross for reporting, falsely, that retired general Mike Flynn would testify Mr. Trump asked him to reach out to the Russians during the campaign, when it was in fact after he’d been elected president. At nearly the same time America learned that the top FBI agent on Robert Mueller’s team investigating Russian interference in the 2016 election had exchanged pro-Hillary/anti-Trump texts with an FBI lawyer with whom he was having an extramarital affair.
And then liberals wonder at a CBS poll finding that 71% of Alabama Republicans don’t believe the allegations against their candidate. They may well be wrong about Mr. Moore and his accusers, but is their skepticism really that difficult to understand?
Now we are entering the final week of the race. Perhaps sensing a Moore victory, President Trump Monday morning offered an unconditional endorsement, tweeting that “we need Roy Moore to win.” But Mr. Trump’s endorsement hasn’t always been dispositive: Remember, Mr. Moore is the GOP’s candidate because Alabama Republicans in the primaries rejected the man the president endorsed.
So if Mr. Moore does find himself Alabama’s newest senator next Tuesday night, it may be as much the fault of those who opposed him as those who supported him.
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