Unvarnished Polling!

This is true poll results unvarnished!


To: Rep. Eric Cantor
From: John McLaughlin
Re: Media Poll Bias 􀍴 Don􀍛t Believe the Skewed Polls
Date: September 27, 2012

As you know voters are being deluged with a barrage of media coverage about media
sponsored polls showing that Governor Mitt Romney is losing ground to President Obama in critical
swing states. I'm sure that you and every Republican candidate are being regularly asked if these
polls are right? I know I've spent a lot of time this past week answering these questions to candidates
and members of the media. What's wrong with some media polls is that they are skewed to reflect the
media bias. Some polls that have made headlines are very tilted to give an advantage to the
Democrats by polling more Democrats and polling less Republicans. When each party has 80% to
90% of their own voters supporting their own party's candidate, it's easy to fabricate a false Obama
lead by polling more Democrats and less Republicans. It's easy to draw a sample that creates this
bias by using phone exchanges and not using actual voter lists. This is what some pollsters are doing
and the Obama campaign and the Democrats appear to have lobbied media pollsters to suppress the
Republican vote.

Here's the facts about the polls in key swing states:
1. Florida - It's easy to know what the ball park is for Florida's party registration. It's right on their
website http://registration.elections.myflorida.com/CheckVoterStatus as of 9/24.
􀁸 Out of the 11.6 million voters, 4.6 million voters or 40% are Democrats.
􀁸 4.2 million voters or 36% are Republicans.
So what's the Florida exit poll history?
- 2004 Democrat 37% Republican 41% net +4%
- 2006 Democrat 36% Republican 39% net +3%
- 2008 Democrat 37% Republican 34% net -3%
- 2010 Democrat 36% Republican 36% net even
So what's the recent Florida media polls?
- 9/26 Quinnipiac CBS/NYT
􀂃 Democrat 36% Republican 27% net -9%
􀂃 Obama 53% Romney 44% net -9%
- 9/23 Washington Post
􀂃 Democrat 35% Republican 29% net -6%
􀂃 Obama 52% Romney 43% net -9%
_________
2
- 9/19 Mason Dixon
􀂃 Democrat 44% Republican 39% net -5%
􀂃 Obama 48% Romney 47% net -1%
- 9/19 Purple poll
􀂃 Democrat 37% Republican 38% net +1%
􀂃 Obama 47% Romney 48% net +1%
- 9/18 Fox News
􀂃 Democrat 42% Republican 37% net -5%
􀂃 Obama 49% Romney 44% net -5%
- 9/13 Caddell/McLaughlin
􀂃 Democrat 42% Republican 38% net -4%
􀂃 Obama 44% Romney 48% net +4%
- 9/12 Rasmussen
􀂃 Democrat 35% Republican 38% net +3%
􀂃 Obama 48% Romney 46% net -2%
- 9/11 NBC/WSJMarist
􀂃 Democrat 41% Republican 38% net -3%
􀂃 Obama 49% Romney 44% net -5%

A quick glance shows that the most recent CBS/NYTimes and Washington Post polls have
Republicans at levels not seen in Florida since the 1960's - under 30%. Adjusting the 2 most recent
media polls to actual registration would close the race to within the margin of error - too close to call.
2. Ohio - has no party registration, but there are plenty of exit and recent polls tracking party
affiliation.
So what's the Ohio exit poll history?
- 2004 Democrat 35% Republican 40% net +5%
- 2006 Democrat 40% Republican 37% net -3%
- 2008 Democrat 40% Republican 31% net -9%
- 2010 Democrat 36% Republican 37% net +1%
So what's the recent Ohio media polls?
- 9/26 Quinnipiac CBS/NYT
􀂃 Democrat 35% Republican 26% net -9%
􀂃 Obama 53% Romney 43% net -10%
- 9/23 Washington Post
􀂃 Democrat 35% Republican 27% net -8%
􀂃 Obama 52% Romney 41% net -11%
- 9/19 Purple Poll
􀂃 Democrat 38% Republican 36% net -2%
􀂃 Obama 48% Romney 44% net -4%
_________

3
- 9/18 Fox News
􀂃 Democrat 42% Republican 36% net -6%
􀂃 Obama 49% Romney 42% net -7%
- 9/13 Caddell/McLaughlin
􀂃 Democrat 41% Republican 38% net -3%
􀂃 Obama 47% Romney 44% net -3%
- 9/12 Rasmussen
􀂃 Democrat 36% Republican 34% net -2%
􀂃 Obama 47% Romney 46% net -1%
- 9/11 NBC/WSJMarist
􀂃 Democrat 38% Republican 28% net -10%
􀂃 Obama 50% Romney 43% net -7%

Again the most recent CBS/NYTimes and Washington Post polls have Republicans again under 30%
at levels not seen in Ohio in decades.
Adjusting the these recent media polls to an average of recent exit polls would close the race to within
the margin of error.
3. Virginia - is another state with no party registration, but there are plenty of exit and recent polls
tracking party affiliation.
So what's the Virginia exit poll history?
- 2004 Democrat 35% Republican 39% net +4%
- 2006 Democrat 36% Republican 39% net +3%
- 2008 Democrat 39% Republican 33% net -6%
- 2009 Democrat 33% Republican 37% net +4%
So what's the recent Virginia media polls?
- 9/19 Purple Poll
􀂃 Democrat 34% Republican 32% net -2%
􀂃 Obama 46% Romney 43% net -3%
- 9/18 Fox News
􀂃 Democrat 38% Republican 33% net -5%
􀂃 Obama 49% Romney 42% net -7%
- 9/17 Quinnipiac CBS/NYT
􀂃 Democrat 35% Republican 26% net -9%
􀂃 Obama 50% Romney 46% net -4%
- 9/16 Washington Post
􀂃 Democrat 35% Republican 24% net -11%
􀂃 Obama 52% Romney 44% net -8%
- 9/13 Rasmussen
􀂃 Democrat 36% Republican 38% net +2%
􀂃 Obama 49% Romney 48% net -1%
_________

4
- 9/11 NBC/WSJMarist
􀂃 Democrat 31% Republican 26% net -5%
􀂃 Obama 49% Romney 44% net -5%

Once again the most recent CBS/NYTimes and Washington Post polls have Republicans well under
30% as did the NBC/WSJ at levels not seen in decades. Adjusting these media polls to an average of
recent exit polls would close the race to within the margin of error.
We all know that polls affect voter morale and candidate fundraising.
It's important that Republicans aggressively point out and discount biased media polls. At the same
time we need to rally those hundreds of thousands of Republicans in these swing states who voted in
2004, but may have stayed at home in 2008 when they thought McCain would lose. In these close
races it could make all the difference.