Obama's Armpits. Talking Into A Recession? Israel And The Inevitable. Is Pocahontas Scalping Doofus?

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I never doubted Obama was up to his armpits in being involved with those who wanted Trump to lose. Holder was O's Attorney General and was one of the most political to ever head The Justice Department. He and Obama were very close and Holder would not have acted without  advising his boss.  Stay tuned.  (See 1 below.)
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Are we about to talk ourselves into a recession? (See 2 below.)

My father loved to tell an apocryphal story about his father who, during the Depression, was a peddler.  The story goes as follows:  Max, my paternal grandfather, was particularly hit by The Great Recession so he fed the mule, that pulled his wagon, less each day. Finally the mule died and Max was heard to say :"If I knew he was going to die I would not have fed him at all."

Trump loves to tell how his various actions (tax cut, reduction in red tape and urging foreign companies to come to America and those already here to stay.) resulted in a spurt in GDP  Thus, the last thing he needs  is a recession as we near the 2020 election. It appears the risk of a world recession has increased and there is nothing Democrats would love more  than a recession - ask  Bill Maher.

We have witnessed one of the longest recoveries in history and a deferred downturn has always been out there.

A variety of uncertainties has left corporate America confused about capital formation and the contentious political picture has added more logs to the modest flickering. Psychology is an important recession causal ingredient . I believe there is no reason for America to go into a recession at this time but  various uncertainties, unresolved trade issues and The Fed's tightening could create a psychological mood which can lead to a recession. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Israel prepares for the inevitable. (See 3 below.)
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Written  by a D.C Lawyer in private practice. (See 4 below.)

So:

Will it be Pocahontas? (See 4a below.)
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Dick
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1)  Judicial Watch Finds Documents Showing Fusion GPS Working Directly With Obama's DOJ to Frame Trump

By Katie Pavlich

Government watchdog Judicial Watch has uncovered and released hundreds of documents showing the Obama Justice Department working directly with Fusion GPS, a research firm hired by the Clinton campaign, to frame President Trump. 

The documents show Fusion GPS' Nellie Ohr, who was specifically hired in 2016 to dig up dirt on Trump and his children Ivanka, Don Jr. and Eric, working directly with U.S. Associate Deputy Attorney General Bruce Ohr on a spread sheet linking President Trump to a number of Russian operatives. Nellie and Bruce are married and while Bruce was demoted, he's still working at the Department of Justice in Washington D.C.

"On December 5, 2016, Bruce Ohr emailed himself an Excel spreadsheet, seemingly from his wife Nellie Ohr, titled 'WhosWho19Sept2016.' The spreadsheet purports to show relationship descriptions and 'linkages' between Donald Trump, his family and criminal figures, many of whom were Russians. This list of individuals allegedly 'linked to Trump' include: a Russian involved in a 'gangland killing;' an Uzbek mafia don; a former KGB officer suspected in the murder of Paul Tatum; a Russian who reportedly 'buys up banks and pumps them dry'; a Russian money launderer for Sergei Magnitsky; a Turk accused of shipping oil for ISIS; a couple who lent their name to the Trump Institute, promoting its 'get-rich-quick schemes'; a man who poured him a drink; and others,' Judicial Watch released. "On December 5, 2016, Bruce Ohr emails himself a document titled "Manafort Chronology,' another Nellie Ohr-Fusion GPS document, which details Paul Manafort's travel and interactions with Russians and other officials."

After the documents were passed back and forth between the two, Bruce Ohr gave them to the FBI.

"FBI interview reports from December 5 and December 12, and December 20, 2017, show that Bruce Ohr 'voluntarily' gave these anti-Trump and Manafort materials, created for the Clinton campaign by Fusion GPS, to the FBI," Judicial Watch found.

Additionally, the documents show Ohr forwarding an article to the FBI about impeachment on a crime he essentially set up through his work with Fusion GPS. 

"On February 14, 2017, former-Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs, Kathleen Kavalec forwarded Ohr a Huffington Post article touting the Steele Dossier's claim that an alleged deal between Russian oil company Rosneft and Trump supporter Steve Schwarzman constituted a 'high crime of treason worthy of impeachment.' Ohr forwarded the article to the FBI's Washington Field Office the same day," they found. 

Judicial Watch obtained the documents through a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit.

"These documents show a crazed DOJ-FBI effort to use the Clinton spy ring at Fusion GPS, namely Nellie Ohr, to smear President Trump - even before he was sworn in as president," Judicial Watch President Tom Fitton said about the findings. "Clinton campaign operative Nellie Ohr may as well as have had a desk at the Justice Department."

After two years of investigation, thousands of interviews and hundreds of subpoenas, Special Counsel Robert Mueller found zero collusion between any Russia operative, asset, government official or individual and the Trump campaign.

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2) The Navarro Recession, II

Evidence of a tariff-inspired slowdown spooks the markets.

By The Editorial Board

After we warned last week that U.S. trade policy was courting recession, White House aide Peter Navarro took to Fox Business to denounce us for sounding like The People’s Daily, the Chinese Communist propaganda arm. That was novel as criticisms of these columns go, but perhaps Mr. Navarro would care to comment again after Wednesday’s recession warning from the bond and equity markets? Are they Commies too?

Stocks fell about 3% on the day on bad economic news out of Germany, China and the bond markets. Europe’s largest economy shrank by 0.1% in the second quarter as exports fell amid trade and Brexit uncertainty. Chinese readings on factory production, consumption and employment also revealed an economy that is slowing sharply. China’s industrial production increase of 4.8% was a 17-year low.

Investors saw all that and headed for the tall grass of U.S. Treasurys. The yield on the 10-year note hit 1.58%, dipping for a time below the two-year bond yield. The 30-year Treasury hit a record low of 2.018% and closed at 2.02%. Yields this low show investors are moving out of risk assets and they signal slower growth ahead—perhaps even a recession unless events and better policies spur more optimism.

Some Trumpians are cheering the Chinese economy’s pain, but they should be careful what they wish for. They could drive China, the world’s second largest economy, into its first recession since Deng Xiaoping began the era of pro-market economic reform.

A Chinese recession would mean a European recession, which would send U.S. growth down too. The impact would be worse if slower growth triggers capital flight from China 

Mr. Navarro and President Trump spent Wednesday blaming the Federal Reserve for the market meltdown, and we suppose any scapegoat will do in a storm. The Fed isn’t blameless, and we argued it shouldn’t have raised rates last December. But it has since countered that rate increase with a 25-basis-point cut in July, and even another 50 basis points won’t be enough to counter a downward spiral of trade and currency mayhem.

We’ve been warning for two years that trade wars have economic consequences, but the wizards of protectionism told Mr. Trump not to worry. The economy was fine and the trade worrywarts were wrong.

But we never said tariffs would produce immediate recession. We said they—and the climate of uncertainty they were creating for business—would chill global trade and undermine the surge in capital investment spurred by tax reform and deregulation. The growth momentum from tax cuts and a strong labor market were able to mask the impact of helter-skelter trade policy for a time. But that old economic disciplinarian, Adam Smith, sooner or later exacts a price for policy blunders.

Wednesday’s market moves are an omen of the future, not destiny. The key to avoiding the worst is to restore a sense of policy calm and confidence. Stop the trade threats by tweet. Call a tariff truce with China, Europe and the rest of the world while negotiations resume with a goal of reaching a deal by the meeting of Pacific nations in November. Someone should tell Mr. Trump that incumbent Presidents who preside over recessions within two years of an election rarely get a second term.

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3) Israel Gets Ready to Fight a Multifront War

by Seth Frantzman
The National Interest

Israel's Ministry of Defense has revealed a new program to design a combat vehicle for the future. Three prototypes, showing off the latest technology that will enable manned and unmanned vehicles to secure terrain, were on display in a dusty field below a series of hills. Beyond one of the hills was a fake village, constructed to resemble the kind of environment Israel might have to fight in during a battle in Lebanon. It was a fitting place for Israel to be discussing the battlefield of the future, while a simulation of the current battlefield is in the background. For Jerusalem the challenge is facing well-known adversaries, such as Hezbollah and Hamas, while looking further afield at an Iranian threat now entrenching in Syria and Iraq.

The unveiling of the new program comes just a few days after a Palestinian militant fired on an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) patrol near the Gaza Strip, wounding an officer and two soldiers. According to the IDF, the troops returned fire and killed the assailant. A Hamas military post was targeted in retaliation by an IDF tank.

Later the same day shots were fired at Israeli forces in the West Bank. In addition, local media in Syria accused Israel of carrying out an airstrike on the Golan Heights near the armistice line. That day's activities suggest that a conflict on three or more fronts is brewing for Israel. Israeli media, officials and defense analysts have been warning about a scenario since 2017. The IDF has been working on the assumption that the next war could be fought simultaneously on multiple fronts.

Former Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot, who has said Israel struck more than one thousand Iranian targets in Syria in the last years, asserted last year that Israel faces challenges in Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank, Gaza, and in Sinai. In addition, a sixth layer should be added to this, one that includes Iraq, which is where Israeli jets reportedly struck targets. According to this scenario, Israel sees some Iraqi Shi'ite paramilitaries, which are linked to Iran, as a threat. Potential threats include paramilitary militias that could join a future conflict by cutting through Syria to the battlefield and Iranian supplied precision-guided missiles based in Iraq. These Iraqi Shi'ite paramilitaries, such as Kata'ib Hezbollah, are linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which Washington has designated a terrorist organization.

Israel hasn't faced a multifront conflict like this since 1973. At that time the war was fought between Israeli conventional forces and the armies of Egypt, Syria, as well as elements of Iraqi armored divisions and other allies of the Arab states. Today the situation is dramatically different. As a result, Israel is honing its hi-tech military to be more precise, effective, and agile using artificial intelligence, drones, and missiles that fly further than before.

That is part of the vision that Israel presented when it unveiled its future combat vehicle program, dubbed Carmel, on August 4. A successful test of Israel's Arrow 3 in Alaska also shows how Israel hopes to confront ballistic missile threats.

All of this gives Israel the types of capabilities that it has deployed at the Gaza, Lebanon and Syrian borders in recent years. That means in Gaza, when Israel has carried out retaliatory strikes against Hamas over the last year, often in response to rocket fire by Hamas, the casualties have been relatively low. For instance when four hundred rockets were fired at Israel on the weekend of May 5, several Israelis and seven Palestinians were killed. By contrast, in 2009, when Israel went to war and launched a ground operation in Gaza, more than one thousand people were killed, and thousands of others were wounded as a result of similar rocket fire.

It is now thirteen years since the 2006 Lebanon war. That destructive war also saw a high death toll of both Hezbollah, Lebanese and Israeli civilians and left both sides scarred. That war was also fought in the context of tensions on the Gaza border. Israel had launched operation Summer Rains in June 2006. Hezbollah launched a cross-border raid on July 12, 2006, not expecting that the IDF wouldlaunch a major war in response.

Israel understands the kind of conflict it faces in Gaza. It has blunted Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) threats, stopping tunnels and developing a multitiered missile-defense system. Iran may be able to encourage Hamas or PIJ to pressure Israel, because both have links to Tehran, but neither pose a major threat to Israel. By contrast, Hezbollah's rocket arsenal of more than one hundred thousand projectiles, some with precision guidance that is far better than 2006, is a major threat. Hezbollah knows this and has boasted it can strike all of Israel. But it has tempered its threats with acknowledgement that neither it nor Jerusalem—nor the United States—wants a major conflict.

The larger question then is what comes next in Syria and how the Syrian front might look in a future conflict. With Hezbollah and Iran playing a role in Syria, one that has been revealed through numerous Israeli airstrikes, the chance of spillover is possible. But Syria's Russian ally doesn't want the Bashar al-Assad regime threatened through a new round of conflict. It prefers to focus on Syria's north and tensions with the United States and Turkey.

The recent reports regarding Iraq, particularly allegations of Iranian missiles being based in Iraq and airstrikes, highlight a much larger possible front for Israel and its adversaries. Iraqi media is now responding to the reports of the Israeli airstrike last month. In the past Iraqi Shi'ite militias, such as Kata'ib Hezbollah, have pointed fingers at the United States and Israel in rhetoric against both countries. This is linked closely to Tehran and the IRGC's own regional strategy and Hezbollah's narrative, which tends to link Washington and Jerusalem. With U.S.-Iran tensions increasing over the past month, the chance of an incident on one of Israel's borders growing into a larger crisis is ever-present. If that happens, then Israel may have to grapple with a multifront war for Israel.

Seth Frantzman is The Jerusalem Post's op-ed editor, a Writing Fellow at the Middle East Forum, and a founder of the Middle East Center for Reporting and Analysis.

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4)SEND IN THE CLOWNS
By George S. Bardmesser

It's a damn shame I have to wait another 20 months to vote for President Trump. I wish I could do it now. Twice. Or better yet, in as many jurisdictions as I can. Preferably in every swing district and every swing state.

Yeah, yeah, I know, sadly, I can't. It's been a hell of a ride these past couple of years, and I sure hope it doesn't end next November.

I am a middle-of-the-road Republican who voted for Trump with the utmost reluctance in 2016. He sure wasn't perfect. He was no Cicero , either though he can give a decent speech when the chips are down. He had a few extra skeletons rattling in his closet, especially compared to colorless non-entities like Jeb. So yeah, I was queasy about voting for an ex-registered-Democrat-from- New-York-and-possible-liberal- now-turned-Republican.

Was I worried Hell, yeah! Was I depressed You bet. But, really, what options were there Hillary? Jill Stein? Seriously. Trump wasn't my first choice or my second choice or my third choice, but by the time November 2016 rolled around, Trump was the only choice on the menu. So I swallowed hard, took a leap of faith, and pulled the lever for the Donald.And let me tell ya, every time one of these newly minted Democratic "stars" opens their mouth, the same thought goes through my mind: Thank God for Trump. Trump is my last line of defense. Trump is the only thing that stands between me and these hallucinogenic socialist nut jobs. Trump is what's keeping chaos and left-wing insanity at bay.

Maybe I am not a gettable voter for the Democrats. Certainly not easily gettable, but had Trump turned out to be a closet Nelson Rockefeller, and the Democrats were to nominate a genuine centrist, who knows what could've happened. Isn't that what politicians running for president are supposed to do? spend a few months promoting themselves as the reasonable choice, and the other guy as unacceptable?

But today, every single Democrat I can name is working overtime to make damn certain that I will pull the lever for Trump again, and with both hands this time. Trump need not worry about locking down my vote; the Democrats are doing all the heavy lifting.

Every time the Democrats and their media allies peddle yet another "end of the Trump presidency bombshell," I laugh hysterically. If I laughed any harder, people would think I was having an epileptic seizure.

I can't even keep track of half the revelations that were supposed to bring Trump to an ignominious end. Even the Democrats forget most of them within days. Remember Papadopoulos? Flynn? Gates? Roger Stone?

Stormy Daniels? Right. you say? Yeah, okay. He probably did. Oh, hell, who are we kidding here? I am certain that he did. And I care about all this why? I can see why Melania would care, but why do I care?

Heck, I'll go even further. It wouldn't surprise me if Trump paid off a bunch of other women over the years. In fact, and here I am really going out on a limb, there was some reason to suspect, even before the election, that Trump hasn't always been a faithful husband to his various wives. But, dear Democrats: I just checked my Vanguard and Fidelity account balances,

Michael who, you say? Michael Cohen? Oh, yeah, the sleazeball who took Trump's money for years and years, and then, once his taxicab schemes and assorted other shenanigans fell apart and prison time loomed, suddenly had an epiphany about Trump? The guy who plead guilty to lying to Congress? The guy who begged Trump for a pardon? That Michael Cohen? If Democrats think Michael Cohen's pathetic drooling before some congressional committee will change my mind, they are beyond delusional.

Trump Organization, you say? Something about possible non-compliance with New York State health insurance purchasing regulations. Congress will investigate, you say. Uh huh. I am fatigued out with these investigations. You want me to vote for some Democrat because Andrew Cuomo says Trump didn't follow his insurance regulations? Are you people for real?

What's that? Russia ? Mueller? Collusion? I am sick of Russia and I am sick of Mueller. I am sick of Comey, Rosenstein, Ohr, McCabe, Yates, Strzok, Page, Baker, and the rest of the gang. I am beyond sick of them. I am vomit-inducingly sick of them. (And, for the record, I was born in Russia , so I know Russia like these Democrat clowns can't even imagine.) After years of nonstop investigations, all they actually have on the collusion front is Manafort's tax evasion from 10 years ago. That's it?

Remember that New York Times monster 15,000-word article about Trump's inheritance taxes 30 years ago? Ask me if I care, Jared Kushner? Next! Ivanka's shoe line? Whatever. Trump Hotel in DC? Yawn. The Emoluments Clause? Puuuuhhhhlease. Obstruction? Here, I agree. Trump made a mistake. He should have fired Comey's ass on day one instead of waiting two months to do it.

But then, this is all yesterday's news. Who needs last year's bombshells when we have today's contestants! The Donkey Party has a new leader: someone called Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Every time her bright red lips form a sentence, I hear a clarion call: Must Vote For Trump! Unlike AOC, I actually know firsthand what socialism is. I don't need to imagine the future that AOC is trying to shove down my throat. I lived in that future and I pray I'll never have to live in that future again.

Every time AOC proposes to build trains to Europe , or wants butt plugs for cows to control their flatulence, or wants to spend $93 trillion on fairyland, I really, really want to vote for Trump. So make Ocasio-Cortez more visible! Make Ocasio-Cortez speaker of the House! Make her the keynote speaker at the convention!

All the CNN talking heads agree that Trump is an idiot? Maybe, but at least he isn't planning to ban my car. Trump lies? Maybe, but with Trump, we'll still have airplanes - and my 401(k) plan has been doing great since his election.

This gets us to the next installment of "Friday the 13th," a.k.a. the Democratic presidential candidates. Kamala Harris, you say? You seriously want me to vote for Kamala Harris? And you say that Cory "Spartacus" Booker is just like Kamala, only better and balder? Are you kidding me? Pete Buttigieg? Ask me again when I stop laughing.

Bernie? Really? This grumpy near-octogenarian "public service" millionaire with three mansions is running for the presidency of the wrong country. All his best ideas have already been put into practice --- in Venezuela .

This is a guy who pseudo-honeymooned in the USSR (two years before it collapsed!), and didn't notice that people were waiting in mile-long lines for literally everything. This is a guy who has never met a paleo-Stalinist dictator he couldn't be best pals with. Bernie doesn't need to pretend he is a complete crank; he is a complete crank.

I will personally call every one of my friends, neighbors, and acquaintances, and beg them to vote for Trump.

Did someone say Warren ? Warren, the first Cherokee candidate. That Warren ? Doesn't she now want reparations not just for African-Americans, but also for Native Americans? Where, oh where, is that lever to pull for Trump

Biden? The creepy old guy who likes to massage women and 13-year-old girls in public? That guy? I have a 19-year-old daughter, and I sure hope he never goes anywhere near her. But I do hope he runs. It feels like he's been running for president in every election since Eisenhower. Can he lurch far enough to the left this time, to satisfy the woke police? I doubt it, but it will be fun to watch him try.

Ilhan Omar? Maybe she should run for president too. Nancy suggests that Omar is a good person who is simply too ignorant to understand what her words mean. I disagree. Omar is only saying what all the other Democrats are thinking. Yes, she is an anti-Semite. Yes, she is totally mainstream within the Democratic Party.

Throw that toxic Tlaib person into the mix, and we've got the triumvirate that truly runs the Democratic Party now. Ocasio-Cortez, Omar, and Tlaib. I see this nutterfest, and let me tell you, dear Democrats: I am motivated as hell. If ever given a choice (in this election or in other ones) between Ocasio-Cortez, Omar, Tlaib, Pelosi, Warren , Harris, Booker, Biden, Sanders, or Trump, I will take Trump any day of the week.

I am a highly motivated Trump voter because the Democrats have motivated me up to my eyeballs. I have never been more motivated in my life because the Democrats are terrifying me. I am locked, cocked, and ready to rock in that voting booth. I just wish I didn't have to wait 20 months.

4a) Warren Catches Up to Biden in New National Poll 

By Mairead McArdle

Posted By Ruth King

Joe Biden and Senator Elizabeth Warren are polling within just one percentage point of each other as Warren catches up to the former vice president, who has led the pack of Democratic presidential candidates nationally for weeks.

Biden stands at 21 percent support, while Warren is right behind him at 20 percent, up four points from last week, according to the latest national Economist–YouGov poll.

Trailing them are Senator Bernie Sanders, who gained three points from last week to clock in at 16 percent support, and Senator Kamala Harris, who is polling at 8 percent. Former Texas congressman Beto O’Rourke and South Bend, Ind. mayor Pete Buttigieg are next, both at 5 percent, and Senators Cory Booker and Kirsten Gillibrand follow at 2 percent. The rest of the Democratic presidential contenders are at 1 percent or lower.

Warren has also risen to second place among likely Iowa caucus voters, polling at 19 percent behind Biden’s 28 percent, while Sanders falls well behind them at 9 percent, according to a new Monmouth University poll.

Warren’s momentum comes after a tough week for Biden in which he botched a number of lines when speaking at the Iowa State Fair.

“Joe Biden has spoken his mind his entire life, which voters know and love about him,” said Kate Bedingfield, Biden’s deputy campaign manager. “He’s a real person, he’s authentic, and that will never change.”

Meanwhile, Warren has been praised for her smart campaign strategy and detailed policy proposals, but she has not yet garnered the level of white working-class support that Biden and Sanders have managed to gain.

The Economist–YouGov poll of 1,500 U.S. citizens was taken from August 10 to 13, and has a margin of error of 2.6 percentage points.

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