Monday, June 11, 2018

Murphy"s Law, Trump and The G 6. Netanyahu Is Itching. More Rants.

A celebrity commits suicide and the whole world comes to a stop. 22 veterans a day commit suicide and no one bats an eye.
You are currently funding some dangerous people. These people are indoctrinating young minds throughout the West with an ideology built on resentment. It's not an overstatement to say they've made it their life's mission to undermine Western civilization itself, which they regard as corrupt and oppressive. In this week's video, Jordan Peterson, Professor of Psychology at the University of Toronto, explains who they are and how American parents and taxpayers wound up funding this dangerous gang of nihilists.
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There are more than the most popular Murphy's Law. (See 1 below.)
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Trump felt, after he left Canada, Trudeau stabbed him in the back so he retaliated. Did he do so to send a signal to N Korea's leader that he is willing to even go after our allies?
Trump is not orthodox and certainly could be a bit less brash but he is a New York Real Estate Developer cast in the role of president and he remains himself. That makes him an irritant in the world of diplomacy but he tells it like he feels and that is also refreshing.
Trump seems to enjoy bruising ego's of others as a defense to those who wish to bruise his. He loves to pick fights as part of his tactics and that turns off our friends and many Americans but it also proves effective at times.
I believe his suggestion that Putin should have been included in the G 7 event was Trump laying the groundwork for his forthcoming proposed meeting with Putin. The mass media are generally one step behind and thus, continue to miss out when it comes to interpreting  his strategy. 

Trump threw out the thought that why have tariffs at all as a challenge to the G 6 butI doubt they will bite because we could destroy them if we were free to roll up our economic sleeves.

In the end, I believe there will be some accommodations and Trump will get some tariff relief and be able to go home more or less sated..Time will tell. (See 2, 2a  and 2b below.)
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Netanyahu is itching to attack Iran's nuclear facilities and Trump seems ready to assist Bibi. (See 3 below.)
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More Rants (See 4 below.)
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Dick
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MURPHY'S OTHER 15 LAWS

1. Light travels faster than sound. This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak.

2. A fine is a tax for doing wrong. A tax is a fine for doing well.

3. He who laughs last, thinks slowest.

4. A day without sunshine is like, well, night.

5. Change is inevitable, except from a vending machine.

6. Those who live by the sword get shot by those who don't.

7. Nothing is foolproof to a sufficiently talented fool.

8. The 50-50-90 rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there's a 90% probability you'll get it wrong.

9. It is said that if you line up all the cars in the world end-to-end, someone from California would be stupid enough to try to pass them.

10. If the shoe fits, get another one just like it.

11. The things that come to those who wait, may be the things left by those who got there first.

12. Give a man a fish and he will eat for a day. Teach a man to fish and he will sit in a boat all day drinking beer.

13. Flashlight: A case for holding dead batteries.

14 . God gave you toes as a device for finding furniture in the dark.

15. When you go into court, you are putting yourself in the hands of twelve people, who weren't smart enough to get out of jury duty
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2) U.S.-Canada Trade Feud Escalates After Fraught G-7 Summit
By Greg Ip

Fights with allies and rivals for what President Donald Trump calls unfair trade practices have yielded acrimony and retaliation from Canada, Mexico and Europe, while China has yet to budge. Here’s how events might have unfolded with an alternate approach:
Looking back from 2020, it was a masterful application of strategy and tactics that enabled Donald Trump to win the trade war with China.

The U.S. president began unencumbered by the “engage with China at any cost” ideology of his predecessors and, as a seasoned deal maker, recognized that success required leverage, which came from having allies.
In 2018, success was by no means assured. When U.S. officials met their Chinese counterparts that year, China was confident it could wear down Mr. Trump as it had his predecessors by making grandiose promises of reform, offering to buy more American coal, soybeans and natural gas to narrow the trade deficit, and threatening to withhold cooperation on North Korea.
Mr. Trump’s aides had persuaded him the real problem with China was not the trade deficit but how China’s mercantilist state capitalism systematically discriminated against foreign products in China and forced foreign companies to give up their most precious intellectual property. That would cost Americans highly paid jobs when Chinese competitors shut them out in the fastest-growing markets of the future.
U.S. demands reflected that: If China didn’t change its behavior, the U.S. would ban Chinese companies from acquisitions of joint ventures with or substantial investments in any U.S. technology company, ban Chinese entities from supplying U.S. telecommunications networks, and subject all Chinese investment to strict reciprocity—i.e., the same restrictions that U.S. companies faced in China.
China assumed it could undercut the U.S. as it always had, by playing its allies off against it. But instead it encountered a united front. At a pivotal G-7 meeting, Canada, the European Union and Japan said they would join the U.S. in an unprecedented case at the World Trade Organization alleging extensive and undisclosed domestic subsidies had “nullified or impaired” the benefits China’s accession was meant to bring to its partners.
Emmanuel Macron, France’s president, had also persuaded the EU, Canada and Japan to match the U.S.’s ban on Chinese technology investments and its policy of strict reciprocity on investment. To slow China’s efforts to build a national champion in aviation at their expense, the G-7 agreed to ban joint ventures and further outsourcing to China by their own aviation companies.
The united front was possible because Mr. Trump’s aides had persuaded him to set aside irritants with U.S. allies by striking deals that let all sides declare victory. On the WTO, members agreed to shorten the time it took to achieve final rulings, which had allowed illegal behavior to persist, and to narrow the sweep of its appeals panel’s rulings, which the U.S. had long complained undermined its sovereignty.
On the North American Free Trade Agreement, Canada and Mexico acceded to U.S. demands for higher North American content for autos and a minimum amount to be built by workers earning at least $16 an hour. But Mr. Trump dropped demands for a five-year sunset to the agreement and agreed to keep Chapter 19, which allows anti-dumping and countervailing duties to be appealed to a binational panel.
Canada agreed to slowly phase out quotas on dairy imports in return for the U.S.’s doing the same on softwood lumber. Mr. Trump downgraded his Mexican border wall to a barrier and stopped insisting that Mexico would pay for it; in return, Mexico amended asylum laws to no longer let Central American refugees transit through Mexico to enter the U.S.
Since the U.S. and its allies acknowledged China was the source of global oversupply in steel and aluminum, they formed a joint monitoring program to stop Chinese metal from being “transshipped” through third countries to evade each other’s duties.
As the U.S. noose tightened, China retaliated: U.S. companies suddenly found their applications to expand in China being slow-walked, and U.S. exports of car parts and agricultural products were held up at Chinese ports for bogus health and safety infractions. The U.S. responded by announcing a “Section 301” investigation that would hit China with escalating tariffs for its nontariff trade barriers.
China also stepped up purchases of dollars in an effort to push down the value of the yuan, which would make its exports cheaper abroad. The U.S. Treasury responded by authorizing offsetting purchases of yuan.
China, boxed in on trade, played its foreign-policy card. At its prompting, North Korea broke off negotiations on admitting international weapons inspectors, which was to be a key step toward denuclearization. In response, the U.S. declared it would seek to expand missile defenses in Japan and South Korea, step up naval patrols off North Korea and ask Vietnam to host a new U.S. naval base. China, alarmed at the prospect of a growing U.S. military presence on its doorstop, nudged North Korea back to the negotiating table.
By 2019, Chinese officials capitulated. They announced an end to joint-venture requirements, a phased elimination of limits on foreign investment, tariff cuts in critical sectors including automobiles, and a phased-in move to a fully flexible exchange rate.
China would still become an advanced industrial nation, but it would have to share more of the benefits with its foreign partners. China 2025, its ambitious plan to become self-sufficient in top technology, was quietly renamed China 2035.

As U.S. companies’ sales abroad boomed, they teamed up with the federal government to retrain thousands of former factory workers for high-paying, high-skilled jobs. Mr. Trump had, as promised, fixed the global trading system by relying as the U.S. always had, on alliance-building.

2a) U.S.-Canada Rift Roils Nafta Talks

Trump team’s attacks are ‘foundation’ for Washington to walk away from pact, one observer says

OTTAWA—A backdrop of new hostility is hurting chances for Washington and Ottawa to successfully overhaul the North American Free Trade Agreement, say people close to the talks, even as Canada has vowed to forge ahead with the negotiations.
Even before this past weekend’s Group of Seven leaders’ summit, the fate of Nafta was on shaky ground following the U.S. decision to impose tariffs on Canadian- and Mexican-made steel and aluminum products on national-security grounds. Both Canada, the largest foreign supplier of both metals to the U.S., and Mexico unveiled retaliatory tariffs, and former trade negotiators warned the levies would only strengthen Canadian and Mexican resolve not to give in to unconventional U.S. demands in Nafta.
A successful outcome for the trade pact now seems even more tenuous after President Donald Trump abruptly withdrew U.S. support for a G-7 final communiqué and he and advisers issued a series of highly personal attacks on Twitter and in interviews against Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Ottawa’s plan to hit back at the U.S.
Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland said negotiators would continue to work away on Nafta. She spoke with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer on Sunday, and Nafta and the steel and aluminum levies were the focus of a constructive conversation, an official said.
Ms. Freeland told reporters Sunday in Quebec City that she remains optimistic that agreement on a revamped Nafta is possible. However, she said the “ad hominem attacks” from Trump economic advisers Peter Navarro and Lawrence Kudlow “are not a particularly appropriate or useful way to conduct relations with other countries.”
Eric Miller, global fellow at the Wilson Center’s Canada Institute, said Mr. Trump’s “accusatory tweets at Trudeau are really bad news for Nafta.” He added that the Navarro and Kudlow comments “provide the narrative foundation for the U.S. to walk away [from Nafta].…I would now place the odds of a U.S. withdrawal at 75%.”
The worries comes even as Mr. Trump of late has largely steered clear of repeating previous threats to withdraw from the 1990s-era trade deal. On Sunday, Mr. Kudlow, White House economic adviser, said the U.S. could pursue bilateral deals with Canada and Mexico, though it is far from clear that the other countries would accept that.
Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo said last week that Nafta talks had a significant bilateral element because of the nature of the issues, but that doesn’t mean that Mexico would accept a bilateral trade treaty with the U.S.
“There have been talks between Mexico-United States, Canada-United States and Mexico-Canada… they are very useful, as long as the tri-national character of Nafta is maintained,” Mr. Guajardo told reporters.
Mr. Trudeau’s comments at a concluding press conference at the G-7 meeting, in which he said Canada “will not be pushed around” by U.S. threats of tariffs, reflected what he has said both in public and in private conversations with the president, the Canadian leader’s spokeswoman said. But those comments appeared to have rankled Mr. Trump and spurred his Twitter tirade from a flight on his way to his summit in Singapore with North Korea’s leader; while Mr. Trump was at the summit, he had said his relationships with G-7 counterparts were strong despite differences on trade policy.
Omar Allam, a former Canadian diplomat and head of trade consultancy Allam Advisory Group, said relations had been poisoned by the Twitter attacks and could be hard to rebuild.
“What you are seeing is a real lack of trust. The unpredictability is off the charts,” said Mr. Allam.
The Trump administration has said a new Nafta must have a sunset clause, under which it would expire if not explicitly renewed every five years. Mr. Trudeau has said Canada is “unequivocal” in its opposition to that, and both leaders made clear at the G-7 summit that that issue is arguably the biggest obstacle in the Nafta talks.
Mr. Trudeau said he was open to alternatives to a sunset clause that “would not be entirely destabilizing for a trade deal.”
Mark Warner, an international trade lawyer who practices in Toronto and New York, said Mr. Trudeau’s tone was likely aimed at a domestic Canadian audience and that he was likely to keep up the tough stance against Mr. Trump. But that could encourage Mr. Trump to “up the ante” and dim prospects for a Nafta deal down the road, Mr. Warner noted.

Play nice and we can be friends in a mutually beneficial way. Act against U.S. national interests and you will see the other side of the coin.

President Trump’s weekend trip to the summit of the Group of Seven industrial nations in Quebec and his upcoming summit Tuesday in Singapore with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un are good illustrations of his determination to bring about peace through strength and fair trade practices in relations with other countries.
President Trump would much rather use the skills he described in his book “The Art of the Deal” than those described in the ancient Chinese book “The Art of War.”
But the president sees the two different set of skills as interconnected. The more trade the U.S. carries out with other nations, the greater the chances to find an alternative to military action. However a refusal by nations to remove direct threats to our interests will get a response comprised of the full might and fury of U.S. power.
President Trump’s trip to the G7 summit highlights free economic activity as the greatest way to improve the human condition, but with the caveat that all parties must operate fairly for this to work. The president also sees that many countries and companies take unfair advantage of the United States and he is willing to fight to create a level playing field.
This was in play with the war of words over trade in the run-up to the G7 summit. The feuding continued during the summit and afterward, when President Trump threatened Saturday night to place tariffs on foreign cars imported into the United States.
This brings us to the biggest wild card President Trump brings to the world stage: he is a change agent. It would even be fair to say he creates chaos and misdirection – and then looks for an advantage. This drives many of his critics to distraction.
President Trump also told reporters that he would no longer accept “ridiculous and unacceptable” tariffs imposed by other nations on good imported from the U.S. and threatened to “stop trading” with nations that would not lower their tariffs.
“We’re like the piggy bank that everybody’s robbing – and that ends,” President Trump said.  
After Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau used a summit news conference to criticize tariffs President Trump placed on steel and aluminum imports from Canada, Mexico and the European Union, President Trump refused to support a joint statement with other G7 nations (Canada, Britain, France, Japan, Italy and Germany) at the summit in Canada.
 The U.S. president tweeted from Air Force One – as he headed to his Singapore summit – that Trudeau is “Very dishonest & weak” and wrote that the Canadian prime minister had made “false statements.”
On the topic of his summit with Kim Jong Un in Singapore, President Trump said he will walk away if there is no good deal to be made over North Korean nuclear weapons.
The president said he will use the summit to size up Kim’s willingness to denuclearize and that “I think within the first minute I’ll know” if something good will come out of the summit.
President Trump has made clear that he is not seeking to overthrow Kim or his communist regime. The president understands that absent a clear and present threat to U.S. security, it is not generally wise for America to be involved in regime change in other countries.
The president also understands that we can and should encourage countries run by dangerous, oppressive and corrupt leaders to work to give their people more freedom. Both President Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo have done this. For example, they spoke directly to the people of Iran about the mistreatment they have suffered under the mullahs who rule the nation.
President Trump has shown he will assert the power of the United States when it is in our national interests to do so. But he will not seek out foreign adventures to spread American style democracy around the world. However, America can and should retain our role as the shining city on a hill for the world to emulate. There is still no other country even close to our level of progress in freedom, prosperity and individual liberty.
One welcome aspect of President Trump’s leadership style is his belief we should reward our friends and punish our enemies. This has been somewhat lacking and even backwards in recent administrations, as in the Obama administration’s treatment of Iran as a partner for peace and Israel as the problem in the Middle East.
It is good for the bad actors in the world to know consequences await those who step out of line. Peace through strength – embraced by President Trump as it was embraced by President Reagan – still requires an occasional example “pour encourager les autres” (to encourage the others).
This brings us to the biggest wild card President Trump brings to the world stage: he is a change agent. It would even be fair to say he creates chaos and misdirection – and then looks for an advantage. This drives many of his critics to distraction and even his supporters and allies are often hard-pressed to handle it.
But when you are dealing with longstanding problems and well-entrenched interests, metaphorically knocking over a few apple carts or a conference table or two can break that deadlock.
Having a strategy to pursue those openings is essential and the Trump administration does, as its stellar National Security Strategy that came out early in the Trump presidency shows.
The strategy lays out an America First version of the peace through strength doctrine that served us so well in the Reagan years. The current negotiations with Kim Jong Un are a perfect example of this in action. Tough words from President Trump about his unwillingness to accept an aggressive and nuclear-armed North Korea changed the dynamic and now denuclearization is an actual possibility.
Peace through strength and fair trade are an excellent one-two punch and they work well together. Play nice and we can be friends in a mutually beneficial way economically. Aspire to self-determination and we will support you. Act against U.S. national interests and you will see the other side of the coin. The Trump administration has a plan and it is working successfully around the world.
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3)US to Provide Israel with Modern Weapons to 'Face Possible War with Iran'

Security sources in Tel Aviv revealed the approval of US President Donald Trump of a broad plan to strengthen the capabilities of the Israeli army, to meet the “threat of a possible war with Iran.”

The plan includes increasing the number of US military units in Israel and expanding them regularly, and strengthening Israel’s defense capability to surpass Iranian ballistic missiles, the sources said.

In addition, Trump canceled a decision by former President Barack Obama to block refueling planes from Israel. He even decided to reverse this decision by supplying the Israeli Air Force with a large number of Boeing KC 46 refueling aircraft, which would enable the Israeli army to operate longer and more flexibly, against targets far from Israel.

Israeli sources pointed out that Obama, at the time, refused to supply Israel with an additional number of these aircraft, part of his policy to reduce the Israeli military capabilities to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. 

The new Trump resolution was made in response to NATO’s well-known position, expressed by Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg last Saturday, in which he said NATO would not help Israel if it came under Iranian attack, stressing that the central objective was to achieve an international consensus on Iran’s exit from Syria.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in London on Thursday that European countries “do not understand the new situation emerging in our world because of the Iranian nuclear project”.

“If Iran tries to work toward a nuclear bomb, Israel will work to ensure that Iran is not capable of acquiring nuclear weapons,” he said.
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4)One thing that is already apparent about the N Korea summit is that the commentating is either bash Trump, or just establishment types who do not get what is going on, but either way they are clueless, and so ingrained in their hatred of Trump, and in their lifetime of failed diplomacy methods, that they cannot understand how Trump can succeed, nor do they want him to.  The Dems claim Trump is unprepared- Pompeo says he and Trump have been hard at work on this for over a year, and he has had numerous sessions with Trump over the past few weeks to prepare. They say the normal diplomatic prep has not occurred.  Pompeo went to meet with Kim twice, and at length, and with Kim’s number two for two straight days.  Trump had a long meeting with the number two guy. In addition there have been two teams of US senior staff meeting with N Korea staff for well over a week to work through all the issues. Moon has had direct meetings with Kim. They claim Kim won by Trump agreeing to meet and doing a photo op of the two shaking hands-they claim big win for Kim- nothing for Trump. How do they think there is to be a summit unless they meet and start with a public handshake. Kim gave up the hostages and got zip.  Kim loses it all if he does not accept the basics of a deal.  He runs a real risk of getting killed. What do the Dems and press think Pompeo was doing talking to Kim and his number two all these times- talking about how to play canasta??? Dems and press say Trump will agree to let Kim keep some nukes. Pompeo has said he has been completely clear to Kim, no nukes-period. And now the chair of the Council on Foreign Relations, a very establishment  group, said that by hitting back at Trudeau over the G7, Trump now has to give in to Kim or he will look like he has no understanding of how to act diplomatically. It is the opposite. Trump made it clear to all that a leader cannot try to play cute, and insult the US, and get away with it . Big message to Xi and Kim. They really do not understand Trump. What is the EU going to do- refuse to go along with a denuclearization of N Korea over tariffs???  Xi tried to play Trump by getting Kim to act badly two weeks ago, hoping Trump would then crawl to Xi for help with Kim in exchange for concessions on trade.  Instead Trump called his bluff, and called off the summit. Heavy message to Xi and Kim that Trump really will walk away. And that was topped off by Trump suddenly saying there will be another $50 billion of tariffs even after Mnuchin said the trade war was on hold. This was a clear message to Xi that he should not think he can use N Korea to get better terms for trade. Xi had his bluff called twice now. The Dems are demanding Trump bring any deal to Congress, even though he already said he planned to, and the same Dems did not demand that of Obama on Iran.

The point of all of this is everyone thinks they know what is going on, when none of us do. Pompeo and his staff have prepared the meeting and Trump well. Moon has been deeply involved. You can be sure Trump is not going to meet if there is any doubt that Kim understands what the expectation is -- Total denuclearization. You can be sure Pompeo was clear. Moon was likely clear to Kim, and put on added pressure of a peaceful and prosperous co-existence on the peninsula. I am sure Trump has been clear to Xi. Kim, I am sure, has been told by Pompeo this is not Obama and Iran. There will be no reward before there is verifiable proof of compliance. Trump walking away sent a loud message that this is not a game, and the choice is agree or die, literally. Kim knows he loses in a war and he dies. He has no real cards to play with a guy like Trump. His threat to attack the US right now is not credible. Trump and Mattis have made it very clear, the US is ready to obliterate Kim. Trump is making the kind of offer you cannot refuse. You have one great chance- don’t blow it. By attacking Syria when Xi was having dessert at Mara Lago, Trump sent a huge message to Xi- I am not Obama. I really will attack. Very likely Kim knows now he is risking it all if he does not do a deal. That is the meaning of Trump emphasizing this is it -one chance and no more. What Trump has demonstrated with the G7 meeting and tariffs, is he cannot be intimidated, and will stand firm no matter how many put immense pressure on him. Xi and Kim, I am sure has got the message.

Kim may still think he can game this, but I am sure Pompeo and the staff people have made it clear, that is not going to work.  Kim may be smart and prepared, but he is 34, and never had any negotiation with any world leader other than Xi who did not negotiate- he instructed Kim. It is Kim who is at a big disadvantage. It matters not if he had a photo op, or got the meeting with Trump, if he gets blown up by a missile into his bunker. Trump being so unorthodox and unpredictable is a huge advantage. Kim has no playbook.

Nobody knows how this is going to play out, and maybe it all blows up, but my assumption is the ground has been well prepared by Pompeo and Moon, and Kim knows his personal life really is on the line now with a guy who really will pull the trigger.  Kim has to know now,  if he were to try to launch a nuke missile, all of N Korea gets obliterated. It is unlikely he really has a missile that can deliver a nuke to the US successfully. It is a very complex thing to achieve. I am sure Pompeo did not sugar coat how it is, and now that Trump successfully called Xi bluff with the walk away and added tariffs, Kim has to be concerned his mentor got it totally wrong.

Ignore all the talking heads and press. They know nothing of what is really happening. We will all know first thing Tuesday morning, but this is the biggest event of our era. If there really is a deal, everything in the world changes. Putin and Xi will realize they are in a very different situation. The Obama weakness and ignorance era is over. The US will achieve a position of strength not seen for ten years.  Iran will be very worried. The EU will realize they are in no position to make demands. Merkel already said Trump slamming Trudeau was “sobering”, and the German economy is slowing noticeably. The EU and Canada are in no position to get in a trade war now. The Republicans win big in November. If it fails, Trump will have severe criticism even if it is Kim who blows it. If it does lead to a follow on meeting and is positive, the stock market pops up. Everything is on the line here. One way or the other, all the chips are on this hand. At the same time we will see the IG report, and we will see where things go with tariffs and Canada and the EU. Will not be a boring week.
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