Wednesday, June 13, 2018

Accomplishing Against A Resisting Tide. Humor. Trump A Logical President? Israel's Rampage.


Our oldest daughter, Debra, holds her only granddaughter, Olivia.
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I heard where certain far left Democrats are seeking campaign messaging tips from Hollywood friends.  They believe this will help them win over uncommitted voters in the mid year elections. Bashing Trump, in their minds, is what voters want to hear. Perhaps they are correct but I sincerely doubt it.

If they are correct, I suspect an anti-dote would be for Republicans to replay the comments about "crumbs" from Pelosi, the trash talk from DeNero, the hope for a depression comments from Maher and show the nut case comedian holding up Trump's severed head with the "tag line" these are your friendly progressive Democrats.

Politics can be a mean spirited game played by even meaner spirited people hungry for power and control. Because Democrats have been unable to accept defeat they have brought smearing to a new low. They have politicized our laws, embraced the concept of thwarting free speech. engaged in character assassination, paid for nefarious activities that make Watergate look mild etc.

Their friends in the mass media have gone off the ledge in creating false narratives knowing that anything they write finds favor with Trump haters and, in the process, disregard the effect all of their putrid bile creates in undercutting our nation's security and best interests. They would rather engage in the game of divide and conquer.

For those who truly read and digest what I write, they know I have reservations about Trump's petulant style, do not always agree with his methods but try to set this aside in order to be more objective about his accomplishments or lack thereof.  When I do,  I conclude he has been unorthodox but righted the ship of state in many regards.

The economy is back to employing people, the problems of the VA are being addressed, funding of our military is being attended to, consumer attitudes and confidence are rising, N Korea is considering our demands to de-nuclearize, Israel is being reminded, in concrete ways, they are our friend and ally,.  The E.U is being told we have a president who believes it is his responsibility to mend trade policies that have cost us dearly because prior administrations gave away the store and/or were unwilling to be more protective of our nation's commercial interests.

One of the most important and lasting actions has been to appoint a host of new, for life,  judges who are more likely to avoid legislating from the bench.

If one believes in nation states and not Wilkie and Soros'  "One World" concept , then Trump is seeking to protect our borders and mend the law with respect to those already illegally here and accept the reality of the situation.  He has flattened tax rates and allowed corporations to repatriate overseas cash hoards, significantly reduced stifling rules and regulations that served no capitalistic purpose other than to cost consumers money and reduce capital formation and growth.  Trump has taken a more open approach to governance and sought to protect personal privacy which technology has invaded.  Finally, he renounced a bad deal with Iran which skirted our constitutional method of governing.

In doing these various things and instituting a host of other policies, he has been held hostage to busting the budget by spending unnecessarily on more wealth transfer legislation under the rubric of "social benefits, ie. welfare." Everything he has done has been against a tide of total rejection and/or opposition by Democrats.

What I have enumerated above, and many things I did not mention, have occurred in 500 days. For anyone who gives a fig about being objective this is quite remarkable considering the fact he did so against a tide of negativism.

I do not write this believing it will change any minds among the Trump haters who remain fixated on their contempt for the man, can only see his quirkiness and obvious boorish ways and who prefer to dwell on his history of being a Play Boy which blinds while, at the same time, comforts them in living in their cocoon of self-righteous, hypocrisy.

They have every right to miss the world around them so they can enjoy their self-imposed importance.

Frankly I am delighted the mass media and Trump haters exist because they are pursuing a losing strategy that is most likely going to backfire.


https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2018/06/11/president-trump-leads-the-great-trade-awakening/#more-150416
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A for smaller government candidate succumbs. (See 1 below.)
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Humor:A Jewish man on the subway is reading an Arab newspaper. A friend of his, who happened to be riding in the same subway car, noticed this strange phenomenon. Very upset, approached him. "Moshe, have lost your mind? Why are you reading an Arab newspaper?"
Moshe replied, "I used to read the Jewish newspaper, but what did I find? Jews being persecuted, Israel being attacked, Jews disappearing though assimilation and intermarriage, Jews living in poverty. So I switched to the Arab newspaper. Now what do I find: Jews own all the banks, Jews control the media, Jews are all rich and powerful, Jews rule the world. the news is so much better." 

And:

 https://www.investors.com/politics/columnists/trump-economic-policies-gdp-growth/

Finally:  I often use generalities and that is not good - just used one.  That said, trying to peg Trump as a conservative or liberal is not easy because, as with all people, we are a mixture depending on the topic.  I consider myself politically schizophrenic, in that I am socially liberal, militarily a hawk, fiscally conservative but ruled by my fiscal conservatism, If you will not pay for it then you should not do it.

As for Trump, I believe he is our first practical/logical president since Eisenhower and maybe Reagan.  He is more interested in getting things done than caring about how they are tagged. This approach should have broad appeal because most Americans are impatient and "can do" oriented, ie. GO West types.  Consequentially, when Trump sees something he believes is not working or makes no practical sense he is like a kid with a hammer. He is prone to whack it and let the pieces fall where they may. If that means doing the un-orthodox, so be it.

This also means a lot of what we are used to and have accepted gets challenged and re-arranged and for those who have reached accommodations, even if they are harmful, they are uncomfortable and because so many are turned off by Trump, for whatever reason, it simply gives them more grist for their "hate mill."

Currently, Trump is challenging trade agreements, N Korea's nuclear threats and the Iran Deal.  None of his challenges have met success but his efforts to change them have just begun.  Those who hate him, distrust him and/or even believe he is wrong are unwilling to be patient and let things evolve or fear he might be  on to something that will succeed and thus discomfort them.  The mass media certainly have to engage in constant commentary because they have blank pages to fill and lots of ink and TV commentators have "uge" egos and small brains.

We live in an interesting period of history and again I urge you to read: "Homo Deus" and you might even want to re-read"Animal Farm" and "1984, " and top it off with "The Road To Serfdom."
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More Rants. (See 2 below.)
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Where are American's flocking? 50 cities Americans are flocking to http://a.msn.com/00/en-us/AAylN1u?ocid=se
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Is Trump making nice in order to preen N Korea's feathers as a tactic?

https://www.commentarymagazine.com/foreign-policy/asia/north-korea/donald-trump-north-korea-kim-jong-un-debacle-in-singapore/

And:  Another view. (See 3 below.)
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Israel keeps developing weaponry that has advantages should the need to attack Iran arrive. (See 4 below.)
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Dick
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1) Where Do Those of Us Go Who Believe in Limited Government?
By Erick Erickson

Mark Sanford has lost his re-election. I actually supported Sanford when he ran for Congress after his scandal. He had been very public about his failings, publicly apologized, and I was fine with offering both forgiveness and support for his campaign.
He did not disappoint in Congress. He routinely voted against the GOP on issues of limited government, liberty, and spending. After Donald Trump's election, Sanford carried on as he had. He did not change. A critic of both George W. Bush's and Barack Obama's profligate spending, Sanford also criticized Donald Trump's big spending policies and protectionism. Sanford still voted with Donald Trump 79% of the time.
That was not enough, however.


Sanford has been thrown out of office by the voters of South Carolina. It is all the more remarkable because his district, just two years ago, rejected Donald Trump in the GOP primary and his opponent, just two years ago, also opposed Donald Trump in the primary.
But there is now a price to be paid for opposing President Trump in the GOP and Sanford has paid that price by standing on principle. His defeat was cheered on by Republicans who have been longtime Sanford fans due to his principled stand against the GOP's constant feeding of the Leviathan. But they would not abide starving Trump's Leviathan.
I'm not sure where conservatives go. Sanford, portrayed as a moderate merely for being vocal against the President, was actually one of the most conservative members of the House of Representatives. Sanford did not change, his party did. And it changed in a way that is not conservative. If anything, the party has moved away from consistent principle to the politics of the here and now in a cult of personality.
Increasingly, it seems there is no home anymore within the GOP for a principled stand against the Leviathan.
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2)As I have noted earlier, the Phips Curve, the theory that as demand increases, unemployment decreases, wages rise and inflation follows upward. This has been proven by empirical evidence to be a false notion in today’s world economy. What might have been true in 1960, simply does not apply in the current global world with the internet and globalization. We see in the US and Jap[an that fiscal stimulus can be pushed, but the impact on wages is minimal. Today, many functions are performed offshore, or by machines. As technology races ahead with AI, many more functions will be done by computers and not humans so that as even hamburger flippers rage about $15 per hour, robots now can make the burgers. What had been considered full employment, or the so called natural rate as defined by Milton Friedman, as the rate at which demand and supply of labor is in equilibrium, is lower than theorized. It once was 5.1%, then 4.7% three years ago, then 4.5% recently, is now may be 3. 5%.  That is a huge change relatively. Nobody knows if the retired and others will return to work if demand for labor remains very high and they see an opportunity to earn some extra income since such a large number of retirees will not have enough savings or home equity to live decently for their full life. The labor participation rate today is very low given the number of jobs available. There are more job openings than unemployed, so it is not in balance, but core inflation remains under 2% for the definition the Fed uses for the price index.   In my opinion, nobody really knows. Part of the problem is defining full employment in the US today is not clear. Do we count the drugged out and homeless as unemployed, or as unemployable? Maybe we need a new added category of unemployable. Do we adjust for longer lives and people working past 65 as more normal?  Who said 65 is the right age to retire anymore?  Maybe it is 70. This is all theory, but the Fed tries to decide what to actually do on rates depending on what is full employment and inflation. GDP would be higher today if there were all the workers needed to fill all the jobs available such as oil field workers in Texas, truck drivers and construction workers. So maybe there is pent up demand we do not see in GDP numbers because companies can’t find workers to produce to demand, and so maybe there is a longer order book, which will mean a longer run of a good economy as the order book is filled over a longer time period. Maybe Congress will pass an immigration law that makes sense so we can bring in more skilled and unskilled foreigners to fill the job gap.  All questions to which I have no answers, and neither does the Fed.
 Not long ago we were all fixated on money creation and the weekly Fed report on M1. Money in circulation, or money supply. Kudlow still believes that is more controlling than unemployment in regard to inflation. I think he is partly right based on my days at Wharton studying economics.  However, I really do not know. QE was basically making the money supply much larger, and that was meant to stimulate spending and investment. It is not clear if that really worked, or maybe the economy improved just by the passage of time and pent up demand. Maybe there is a base level of demand that stabilized the economy when it fell to that point, and then pent up demand started to push GDP higher. Or maybe there was enough available capital on the sidelines that jumped in to seize all the deeply discounted opportunities to invest, and that turned things around with near zero interest rates. Probably all of the above. Given the money supply increased through QE by $4 trillion, and GDP only grew under Obama by 1.5%, maybe something else was at work.  It is reasonable to assume it was excessive regulation and high corporate taxes under Obama.  Empirical evidence suggests  those factors are more impactful since the economy went for 1.5% to what might be 4% this quarter due to substantial deregulation, a pro-business attitude by government, and lower taxes, which freed up hundreds of billions for capital investment and hiring.

My point in all of this is that economics is an art, not a science, and as the world changes so fast, the theories of decades ago no longer always applicable today. I know from speaking to top economists, that the data are suspect at best, and maybe wrong in some cases. All the data are based on samples and are seasonally adjusted. Who decides what is the correct seasonal adjustment? Some academics. It is very complex, and the Fed with all its data and staff of super smart PhD economists, cannot figure it out. So for the rest of us trying to forecast rates, and inflation, is a losers game, and always has been. The best we all can do is make a reasonable guess. As we have seen over the past 18 months, smart pundits are all over the lot, and many have been completely wrong. Some have lost objectivity and hate Trump so much it colors their thinking. Others are using past data to predict the economy and stock market which are operating in a different fact set. The good news is that under Powell, we have a real world finance businessman, and not an academic lost in the data and theories. We will have to see if he can do better than the academics. Too early to know. The other good news is that the Fed has learned a lot from past major mistakes, so the chance of them doing something stupid again is less, but not zero. Maybe the world is just too complex today for anyone to really know the right answers. One thing is for sure- it is not Congress, nor the talking heads on TV. Be careful who you listen to, and make your own judgment.

Trump pulled off a truly history changing summit, and of course the Dems and press are attacking without knowing what is really going on. Schumer claims Trump gave all, and got zero. How stupid. They claim having the two flags next to each other is “disgraceful”. What would they do, have no N Korea flag. They say granting Kim a meeting is a win for Kim and a loser for Trump, and horrible to meet with such a terrible tyrant. Recall Roosevelt sitting with Stalin, Kerry with the Iranians, Chamberlain with Hitler. If you never meet with the really bad mass murderers, you never get anything done solving the really big issues, and you end up in a war. Hard to reach agreement if you do not talk to the other guy, and only Kim and Trump can make decisions, so they had to meet. Decades of doing it the way the Dems and pundits claim, was a total miserable failure, so who are they to criticize. We do not know what Trump said to him. Maybe he said work with me or die, or words to that effect. We may never really know.  Trump is used to talking to terrible people just like himself and the Mafia from his days as a NY real estate developer. He considers it normal to be lied to, mislead, and threatened. That was life in much of NY real estate dealing years ago. He was an expert at it. So when he said he prepared all his life, that is what he was referring to, his NY real estate experience. We do not know, nor does the press, or the Dems, what Pompeo has been working on, nor what stage the agreements are at. Pompeo has had two teams, plus more back home, working around the clock on the details. They are not sitting around drinking tea. The Dems, the press, and conventional diplomats and academics just do not want to believe Trump really did this. Of course we need to see what happens.  Of course we do not trust Kim. Trump has been very clear about that, but to have a good negotiation and way ahead, he had to make Kim feel respected. It is Asia. Face matters a lot. Kim might have been assassinated by the generals back home if he were disrespected. Trump gave nothing, but maybe future relief from sanctions, and maybe future draw down of US troops, but those are far in the future. Years away. So he said no war games for now. No big deal. These are held in the spring. Lots of time to see if Kim sticks to the deal, and easily back on if not. War games are very helpful, but the rigorous training continues as before, so no real loss to our defense posture in Korea for now. He suspended, did not cancel. He gave a maybe, that is all. They met for five hours with Pompeo, Kelly and Bolton in the meetings, so they must have talked about a lot more than what is in that public statement. We need to see where this all goes from here, but for now there is maybe a real chance for a huge change in the prospects for peace in the region, and entire changes in how the US shapes history.

As I mentioned the other day, the Iran mullahs  now has to really worry. The EU looks stupid standing by the Iran deal and defying Trump on sanctions, when that and the bellicose nature of Trump got Kim to the table. Compare what may be possible in Korea with Iran deal, and how they have been handled. Obama is shown to be the weak fool he was. Xi was boxed out. Putin was not a player in this. The world now sees Trump is really a new way of doing things, and one that includes tough actions -sanctions and real military threats, and he is willing to use them. The US is back in charge, and the rest of the world has no idea how to deal with Trump. That is intimidating for them. Just look at that picture from the G7 with Trump sitting with his arms folded and Merkel leaning over imploring  him, with everyone else standing there leaning in, but Trump just stone faced.  The body language tells you all  you need to know.  Trudeau is irrelevant in light of Singapore. My liberal friends are going nuts by now reading this, but I ask them to  look at what has been accomplished that nobody else has been able to do. If the N Korea nuke threat is eliminated, then the world is a far safer place, millions of lives were saved,  and the US is in a command position. We will have to see how it all plays out, but I think Xi may have convinced Kim there is a far better way to stay alive if he joins the world, and the world economy, and gives up the nuke threat. Kim just has to look at his neighbors to see incredible economic and lifestyle growth over the past 20 years that N Korea has completely missed out on. It has to have made a huge impact. Maybe Dennis Rodman is telling the truth and Kim was ready for this years ago, but Obama just blew it off when Rodman told him. Maybe Kim ramped up the nukes knowing Obama was weak and a terrible negotiator after seeing the Iran deal, and he could use the nukes to get a great deal. So maybe he figured he could really take us to the cleaners like Iran did. If true, then Obama was even worse than I thought for having blown the opportunity and allowing Kim to get to this point.

If this all moves well going into November, and if trade deals are hammered out, the Republicans might even add to their numbers in the House.

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3) The Key to Trump's Success in North Korea

Who would have thought a real estate developer from New York City, famous for plastering his name in big letters on his buildings, would be a champion in foreign policy? Big surprise: It turns out that being confident, tough, and aggressive works well for a president dealing with dangerous pipsqueaks like ISIS and North Korea.
Trump isn't intimidated by anybody.  Not by business rivals, not by critics, not by rogue FBI agents, not by foreign leaders.  Certainly not by failed experts who urge meekness, caution, and limited goals. 

Our president is devoted to one thing: winning for America.  He does listen to our military and work with its members to achieve the possible.  He does understand how power works.  Korea could thumb its nose at us because it was protected by China.  So, first, Trump removed that protection by going after China.  The astute Sundance at Conservative Treehouse has been pointing out for months that the trade pressure on China was the prerequisite to movement on Korea.  Our expert diplomats and analysts still don't talk about this big picture.  Trump is obviously a strategic thinker, as you have to be in the business world, as in the military.

It's not all that complicated.  Kim came to the table because Trump forced him to.  North Korea was made to understand quite thoroughly and clearly that its grandstanding with nukes was over.  Being clear was the first step to success.  Trump has no toleration for a nuclear Korea, period.  When communicated forcefully, through actions, not words, that was the game-changer. 

Trump reversed Kim's motivation 100%.  Kim thought the nukes were his one ticket to security.  Trump showed him that the nukes are his ticket to oblivion.  That is why there is reason for optimism that this is not going to be the useless nuclear diplomacy we have had since Clinton.


Kim was shown he had two choices: give up or be destroyed.  His only open question was how North Korea would be destroyed – slowly through devastating economic sanctions, or suddenly, by U.S. military might.  The timetable would be chosen by President Trump.

Trump won because of certain New Yorker traits he has in abundance – not accepting BS, not caring what other people think, not being afraid of a fight.

While critics howled, Trump became more and more menacing.  That ranged from offensive name-calling to military exercises in the Pacific.  This was not a Twitter war; it was real war.  It is almost exactly a year since Trump sent the third carrier battle group into the western Pacific.  It is said that when the U.S. sends one or two carriers, it is a show of strength.  Sending out a third carrier means war.  Kim had never received that message before. 
Past presidents put economic sanctions on North Korea – kinda, sorta.  Only so far as China allowed, which was just far enough to keep Korea misbehaving.  Trump doesn't do kinda, sorta.  For the first time, we enforced sanctions.  All it took was the balls to stand up to China.  That was another Trump first.

When the usual Chinese businesses continued to support the North Korea economy, China found its biggest banks threatened with exclusion from the American market.  Two small Chinese banks were shut out of the U.S. as a sign of seriousness.  That was the end of China thumbing its nose as our sanctions.

The Chinese central bank sent out the message to obey U.S. sanctions on North Korea.  Funds propping up the North Korea economy were shut off.

Showing Trump's mastery of standard diplomacy as well, we knuckled China to get on board with a U.S.-drafted U.N. Security Council resolution that required member-states to inspect and impound any vessel in their port breaking sanctions on North Korea.  The resolution was passed unanimously.

With this infusion of backbone, South Korea was empowered.  When it caught a Hong Kong-flagged tanker violating the oil embargo, the tanker was confiscated.  China was silent.

Kim was facing ruin – sure ruin with nuclear weapons, the possibility of survival if he gives them up.
He asked for a meeting with President Trump to discuss it.  Trump agreed from a position of strength: no goodwill lessening of sanctions, no decreased U.S. military presence, and the goal was total denuclearization with inspections by the U.S.  That was already a huge improvement on past diplomatic "successes."  The only gesture our president offered was to be gracious about a meeting – as long as Kim behaved.

There was one major stumbling block remaining, a holdover from the diplomacy of the past administration: the haunting example of Libya.  The Obama-Clinton geniuses broke the agreement we had made with Gaddafi, to leave him alone if he gave up his weapons.  Obama's decision to depose Gaddafi make it almost impossible for any dictator to trust us and negotiate denuclearization.  Vice President Pence turned the lesson around by telling Kim, if he didn't agree to no nukes, he would have the same fate as Gaddafi.

Kim immediately retaliated, calling Vice President Pence a "political dummy," "unbridled and impudent," and threatening us with a "nuclear showdown." 

Big mistake.  The U.S. does not have to blink at threats from a squirt like North Korea.  Our experts don't know this.  Trump does.  He called off the meeting.  He made it clear that the U.S. would not tolerate threats from Rocket Man.  Trump is not accepting a reciprocal relationship.  Kim cannot be rude or make threats.  We can.  Trump was his usual blunt self: "You talk about your nuclear capabilities, but ours are so massive and powerful that I pray to God they will never have to be used."

That is what tough looks like.  That is how a responsible president behaves when he sees a small country threatening international stability and the safety of our own nation. 

That is what happens when a president understands we are a powerful country and how to use that power.
That is how you win.
Illustration by Ronny Gordon.


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4)

The Rampage: Supersonic missile developed to destroy high quality targets

By ANNA AHRONHEIM
With tensions still high between Israel and Iran, a new supersonic air-to-surface missile designed for the annihilation of high quality targets has been developed by Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) and Israel Military Industry Systems (IMI).

Dubbed “The Rampage” after a popular video-game, it is an accurate supersonic, long-range air-to-ground assault missile with a warhead, rocket engine and advanced navigation suit which allows for precision targeting at a very low mission cost compared to existing solutions.

The missile can be fitted to the Israel Air Force’s F-15, F-16 and F-35 fighter jets and is meant to be fired into areas protected by air-defense systems.

Amit Haimovich, director of marketing and business development for IAI’s Malam engineering unit told The Jerusalem Post that due to the combination of the Rampage’s speed and physical form, “it can be detected, but it is very hard to intercept.

“If you take the Middle East arena and areas protected by air-defense systems, the whole point of this missile is that it can hit targets within standoff ranges” without threatening the launching platform, he said.

The 4.7-meter-long missile, which weighs 570 kg., is guided by a GPS system giving it the ability to operate in all weather conditions as well as during the day or night.



According to Haimovich, once the Rampage is launched, it flies toward predefined coordinates, shaping its trajectory to hit the target according to its nature. The missile, he said, does not have a “pure ballistic trajectory which adds to its ability to penetrate any defended target.”

The targets that best fit the capabilities of the missile include communication and command centers, air force bases, maintenance centers, infrastructures and valuable field targets protected by anti-aircraft batteries.

The Rampage also features a warhead which was designed for optimal penetration, allowing for the destruction of targets inside bunkers.

Boaz Levy, general manager and executive VP of IAI’s Rockets and Space Group, said in a statement that the Rampage “is an important product that fulfills a true operational need in a very efficient way. IMI and IAI have invested a great deal of thought in developing this product, which reflects the extensive technological know-how and experience of both companies, with a price tag which is attractive and relevant for all global markets.”

“IMI Systems and IAI are proud to unveil a response to the challenges of modern battlefields. The Rampage joins a family of accurate rockets which we have been providing to advanced militaries for years,” said Eli Reiter, manager of IMI Systems firepower division. “Rampage complements the air response with a quantum leap in performance and extraordinary cost-effectiveness ratio, two factors which are important to many air forces around the world.”

Haimovich told the Post that IAI already has a buyer for the Rampage but could not reveal its identity.

The announcement of the Rampage comes as tensions on Israel’s northern borders remain high, with the IDF continuing to step up its cross-border strikes on Iranian targets in Syria.

Israel has been “managing a campaign against Iranian forces, especially on Israel’s northern border” for the past two years, IAF Commander Maj.-Gen. Amikam Norkin said in late May, just weeks after the air force carried out the most extensive operation in Syria since 1974, striking over 50 Iranian targets following a missile barrage of 32 Fajr-5 and Grad missiles toward Israel’s front-defensive line in the Golan Heights.

In an operation called “House of Cards,” dozens of positions and targets belonging to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force in Syria – including the launcher used to fire the rockets into Israel’s Golan Heights – were destroyed within 90 minutes by the IAF and the Northern Command.

Despite destroying a large amount of Iranian military hardware in the war-torn country, a senior IAF officer said last month that Iran still has long-range capabilities to strike Israel, which has continued to strike targets in Syria.

“The Iranian resolve in the region continues, and we keep operating,” he said, stressing that: “We have maintained our freedom of action over Syria.”
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