Wednesday, February 10, 2016

Ecclesiastes. The FDA Backlog and Demagoguery. Bear Market Ahead?


This should not help Hillarious in South Carolina.

I received this from a dear friend and fellow memo reader but have not checked it 's veracity.

It may or may not be true but what I find significant is this is the story problem Hillarious must overcome and probably cannot - her own veracity, her own believability, her history of pandering and the questionable fund raising sources of the Clinton Foundation.

Can Hillarious shake the fact that voters have put the bad mouth on her?  Time will tell and The FBI will have a lot to say about that as well. Stay tuned. (See 1 below.)

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-03/every-hillary-and-bill-clinton-speech-2013-fees
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I once did a miserable job of teaching Sunday School.  My subject was Ecclesiastes and I was teaching a class of 12 year olds and did not know how to control them.  I quit in frustration.

Why do I bring it up now?  For two reasons.

First, there is a line in Ecclesiastes that goes something like this - 'There is nothing new under the sun.'

Two, I find this marvelous line apropos to political campaigns which encompass repetitive speeches and acts of hypocrisy.

Politicians come up with stump speeches and must make an untold number of stops and give them.  It is unrealistic to expect everything they have to say is new and fresh.  Their stump speeches may have a clever and effective tag line and they repeat it ad nauseum.  Christie has told us time and again how governors are held accountable for what they say and do unlike politicians. Trump has told us repeatedly 'he is going to make America great again.'

Therefore, I find it disingenuous when Christie  attacked Rubio for his repetition of how Obama is untrustworthy  and set about to do things that were harmful and purposeful. Yes, it caught Rubio unaware and yes it got him off message and proved a momentary effective strategy, on Christie's part, because he was out to knock off  Rubio's competitive threat. However, I also believed it boomeranged on Christie and revealed his bullying side.

Presidential campaigns drown us in sound bites, one liners, repetitive garbage, are too long and costly and certainly nothing is said that has not been said before by others but for the candidate saying it, it may be new.  Even what I am writing now is not new though it is new for me.

Secondly, when it comes to hypocrisy, I submit Trump going to church in Iowa and the candidates use of God is pandering and not genuine.  Kissing babies seems to have gone the way of all flesh, thank God, but other hypocritical acts have become standards depending upon their geographic suitability.

And so we are in the "silly season" and we have til November to endure this depressing fact.

That said, I may be turned off by repetition but I am not willing to take a candidate to the wood shed for having a canned speech.  Like MLK, I am more interested in the content of what the candidate has to say and his character and though Dr. King was a remarkable speaker, could turn a phrase like Winny and I wish he were still here, what he said was not new because 'there is nothing new under the sun.'

I have posted a summation of the lessons of New Hampshire by Newt, because he is a very prescient politician, who also fell on his own sword because he came to drink his own bathwater. For a politician, that too is nothing new. (see 2 below.)
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Another promising drug bites the dust and its cost must be recaptured in the pricing of future successful drugs if they can be developed and eventually approved by the FDA, which is light years behind on its back log.

These are facts Bernie and Hillarious do not discuss because to do so would take some of the wind out of their demagogic sail.  (See 3 below.)
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If statistics mean anything the DOW Average is within a few points of entering bear territory.  Most Bull Markets last an average of 5 or so years and we are into our 7th year and interest rates are due to rise.

Time will tell.
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Dick
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1)According to the Beaumont newspaper and reports from a couple of Beaumont TV stations this really happened. (January 6, 2016)

Hillary Clinton made a campaign stop yesterday in Beaumont, Texas. Only six people were
there to greet her. Her security detail outnumbered her supporters by quite a bit. She wouldn’t talk, wave to or even acknowledge those there to greet her. As bad as that  is, it’s not the real story here. The real story is who she took a private meeting with. After landing, Clinton headed off to a fundraiser in West Beaumont, where she was greeted by around 150-200 Muslims, most of whom were of  Pakistani origin. The event was held by Pakistani businessman Tahir Javed and Hillary raised approximately $500,000 by pandering to Muslims, making it “one of the top five private fundraisers Clinton has had in this country.” She’s bought and paid for by them.Spread this far and wide. You will not see it on national news but this is what is going on.
2) Lessons from New Hampshire

Dick, The New Hampshire primary gave us a lot to think about in both parties. It clarified the way forward for Republicans while raising serious challenges for Hillary in particular and Democrats in general.

First, Donald Trump won decisively with every group of Republican primary voters. Today, he is the front runner and the most likely to be nominated. Those waiting for him to implode or fade away need to recognize that he is real. He may in the end be beaten for the nomination, but he is not going to self-destruct.

Trump is also becoming a little more sober and a little more presidential in his style as the reality of his front runner status sinks in for him.

Second, Ohio Governor John Kasich's strategy of remaining positive and campaigning hard in New Hampshire worked. That strategy meant he endured a long stretch of being ignored and minimized. It turned out that it was a long stretch of increasingly cold weather but warmer and warmer voters.
It is not clear how Governor Kasich will translate this achievement into additional victories, but his performance Tuesday night certainly gives him the chance to do so.

Third, in the Democratic primary, Senator Bernie Sanders won a huge victory and Hillary Clinton suffered a crushing defeat. She lost virtually every group of voters in her party, and in the end she lost the primary by 21 points. It is clear that Secretary Clinton has been overestimated just as much as Senator Sanders has been underestimated.

In addition, the depth of the Democrats’ problems only becomes clear when you look beyond the headlines, to the details of the results.

In New Hampshire, there were roughly 18,000 fewer votes cast than in 2008. (The New Hampshire Democratic primary vote dropped from 285,000 in 2008 to 247,000 this year.) This follows on an even bigger decline in turnout in Iowa.

It is clear that Sanders is mobilizing socialists, the hard left and the young. It is also clear that moderates and independents are beginning to leave the Democratic Party or stay home.

Sanders’s mobilization of the left is amazing. He has raised more than $5 million since the polls closed in New Hampshire. He has more donors than Barack Obama had as a candidate (an astonishing achievement). As he likes to repeat, the average donation to his campaign is $27, so he can go back again and again with enormous efficiency.

In all likelihood, Sanders will soon begin outspending Clinton.

In addition, there is a growing cadre of younger black activists who are endorsing Senator Sanders over Hillary. The famed Clinton firewall of African American voters is starting to melt into support for Sanders.
The New Hampshire vote made clear Clinton’s crushing liabilities. Among those who said they value honesty, she lost 91-3. That number is almost unfathomably bad. Among younger voters, she lost five to one. Remarkably, that was an improvement over her vote in Iowa, where she lost six to one (84-14).

Are Democrats really going to nominate the candidate of the old and the dishonest?

Bernie Sanders could become the new George McGovern--a brilliant mobilizer of a militant minority who gets repudiated by the larger world of a general election.

Fourth, Cruz is in excellent position to be Trump’s major competitor. Cruz has the organization, the fundraising, the ideological appeal and the name recognition to be a serious competitor in the states that will vote in the next six weeks.

In fact, the Republican race is almost certainly going to evolve into a contest between Trump, Cruz, and a third alternative. The question is whether that alternative is Kasich, Rubio or Bush.

Fifth, Senator Rubio suffered from his Saturday debate bruising by Governor Christie. He has to turn it around in the next debate.

Sixth, South Carolina should be a good state for Jeb Bush. His brother is extraordinarily popular among South Carolina Republicans. If he can't break through there, there may be no place for him to break out.

Your Friend,
Newt
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3) Incyte bags late-stage development of Jakafi for solid tumors; shares down 10% pre-market

Incyte (NASDAQ:INCYterminates its Phase 3 clinical trial assessing Jakafi (ruxolitinib), in combination with chemo agent capecitabine, for the second-line treatment of advanced or metastatic pancreatic cancer after an interim analysis failed to show sufficient efficacy.
Based on these data and the interim analysis of the Phase 2 sub-study of Jakafi, in combination with Bayer's (OTCPK:BAYRYSTIVARGA (regorafenib), in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer and high C-reactive protein (CRP), the company will stop all Jakafi studies in solid tumors, including Phase 2 trials in breast and lung cancer. It will also discontinue its dose-finding study of INCB39110 ( a selective JAK1 inhibitor) as first-line treatment for pancreatic cancer.
Data from all the discontinued trials will be analyzed and shared with the scientific community over the next few months.
Ongoing studies of Jakafi and selective JAK1 inhibitors in hematology will continue as will those assessing selective JAK1 inhibition in solid tumors based on different hypotheses. These include a series of studies evaluating INCB39110 in combination with Merck's  (NYSE:MRKKEYTRUDA (pembrolizumab) and Incyte's epacadostat and INCB50465. A Phase 1/2 trial will also be conducted assessing INCB39110 plus AstraZeneca's (NYSE:AZNTAGRISSO (osimertinib).
Jakafi is a JAK1/JAK2 inhibitor cleared in the U.S. for the treatment of a type of blood cancer called polycythemia vera and a bone marrow disorder called myelofibrosis.
Shares are off 10% premarket on light volume.
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