Sunday, November 25, 2012

What More Missteps of Obama's Are In The Offing?

I hope everyone had an enjoyable Thanksgiving we certainly did.
---







---
Will 'Obamascare' be Obama and the nation's undoing or will it be  Obama's foreign policy mishandled initiatives in the Middle East including Syria, Iran and Egypt, will it be his appetite for spending what we no longer have as he relies on Bernanke to print more of what he should not, will it be his arrogant disregard for checks and balances that are part of of our Constitutional Democracy, or?  Time will tell so stay tuned. (See 1, 1a, 1b, 1c, and 1d below.)
---
Hamas thinks they will defeat Israel.  I suggest you look at these and you decide:http://kador.livejournal.com/1355211.html  (See 2 and 2a below.)
---
Dick
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1)LEE: After fiscal cliff comes fiscal avalanche

Rejection of U.S. debt leads to interest rate spike



Read more: LEE: After fiscal cliff comes fiscal avalanche - Washington Times http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/nov/23/after-fiscal-cliff-comes-fiscal-avalanche/#ixzz2DHavhO9t
Follow us: @washtimes on Twitter


While Washington is preoccupied with the so-called fiscal cliff, little attention has been given to the fiscal avalanche that will occur if we continue down an unsustainable, long-term path, causing markets to turn sour on U.S. debt and leading to a spike in interest rates.

Such a eurolike crisis would make the fiscal cliff look like a dip in the road. Unlike driving off a cliff, which you can see coming and make last-minute adjustments to avert, we cannot predict with any reasonable certainty when the avalanche will break. If it does, there will be little anyone can do to prevent its devastating effects.

No one knows just how long the United States can continue to accrue massive debts before lenders lose confidence. Delaying significant fiscal restraint for yet another year will send the wrong signal to financial markets and may serve as a tipping point that could lead to disastrous consequences for our economy.

If U.S. creditors decide that our debt is no longer the safest form of investment available, demand for Treasurys will drop, interest rates will rise and the cost of servicing our debt will begin to explode. Paying interest on our national debt will quickly crowd out spending on almost all other federal priorities. At that point, any deficit reduction undertaken by Washington — including the sorts of spending cuts or tax increases being discussed today — will be too little, too late.

The Congressional Budget Office projects that under the most likely policy scenario, in 30 years, net interest payments on the debt could total $3.8 trillion in today’s dollars. That is more than total government spending for 2011.

In reality, we are unlikely to maintain the same level of borrowing and spending for the next three decades without a significant change in interest rates for our debt. Even a modest 1 percentage point increase next year, for example, in effect would wipe out all the deficit reduction included in last year’s Budget Control Act. In other words, we would have to shoulder the burden of fiscal restraint without any actual deficit reduction — all pain and no gain.
It could get much worse.

If our failure to make significant structural changes in government spending leads to borrowing conditions like those of Greece, we could experience a meltdown of the financial markets and broad economic upheaval from which we may never recover. Such circumstances would require massive and immediate cuts to Social Security, Medicare, national defense and virtually every discretionary program to avoid a credit default.

Most Americans will find this scenario difficult to believe, but make no mistake — if we do nothing, the avalanche will break suddenly and without warning. As Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff recently explained, “By the time [markets] lose confidence, it’s too late: The option to tighten from a position of strength has evaporated.”
President Obama says his solution to our deficit and debt is to raise taxes on the very wealthy. His approach does almost nothing to address the structural spending challenges we face. Over 10 years, the president’s most recent budget, which includes his tax hike, still adds almost another $11 trillion to the national debt.

Equally unserious is the suggestion by some senior Senate Democrats that we increase spending with another stimulus program. Failure to achieve robust recovery is not the result of too little government spending. Rather, excessive government spending, intervention and regulation have stifled growth and incited fear over what will be required to bring the budget into balance.
What our country needs most is fiscal restraint, structural spending reform and sound economic policy to promote investment and jobs. Simply continuing to kick the budget can farther down the road will make these required reforms increasingly more difficult and ultimately more painful. Such continued delay risks arriving at a point when we no longer can borrow and we have no choice but to painfully slash government spending overnight.

Is Washington up to the challenge? So far, the answer has been no. That must change soon. If the fiscal avalanche breaks before we change course, the result will be disastrous.

Mike Lee is a Republican senator from Utah and a member of the Joint Economic Committee


1a)
OBAMACARE = MORE HEADACHES, LESS HEALTHCARE


An Oklahoma-based physician is questioning the right to healthcare under ObamaCare and the role of physicians who are paid little to provide it.

With President Obama's re-election, many are enthusiastic about their coming access to healthcare. But Dr. Keith Smith, an Oklahoma-based board-certified anesthesiologist, ponders upon the quality of care patients will receive


He explains that come 2014, patients will have to prove that they have insurance, or they will be forced to pay a minimum of $95 that will climb to nearly $700 if they choose to opt out. So, he believes many will likely be handed a Medicaid card under ObamaCare.

"Often times, somebody that has a Medicaid card or even a Medicare card in their wallet, they have trouble with access just by virtue of having that card," the anesthesiologist explains. "A lot of physicians are not willing to see Medicare or Medicaid patients due to the hassles … the red tape … the low payments and the price controls that are involved."

Dr. Smith tells OneNewsNow he stopped doing cardiac anesthesia because half of his patients were under Medicare, and payment for his services was far below what it should have been. So, he asserts that more doctors will refuse Medicaid and Medicare patients or be forced by the government to work.
"The people waving their cards saying, I've got insurance -- that doesn't mean that they're going to get care," Smith warns. "If anything, it means they probably will be discriminated against if they have a government card, because there will have to be price controls associated with these new cards."

1b)Egypt reformist warns of turmoil from Morsi decree

Prominent Egyptian democracy advocate Mohammed ElBaradei warned Saturday of increasing turmoil that could potentially lead to the military stepping in unless the Islamist president rescinds his new, near absolute powers, as the country’s long fragmented opposition sought to unite and rally new protests.

Egypt’s liberal and secular forces — long divided, weakened and uncertain amid the rise of Islamist parties to power — are seeking to rally themselves in response to the decrees issued this week by President Mohammed Morsi. The president granted himself sweeping powers to “protect the revolution” and made himself immune to judicial oversight.
The judiciary, which was the main target of Morsi’s edicts, pushed back Saturday. The country’s highest body of judges, the Supreme Judical Council, called his decrees an “unprecedented assault.” Courts in the Mediterranean city of Alexandria announced a work suspension until the decrees are lifted.

Outside the high court building in Cairo, several hundred demonstrators rallied against Morsi, chanting, “Leave! Leave!” echoing the slogan used against former leader Hosni Mubarak in last year’s uprising that ousted him. Police fired tear gas to disperse a crowd of young men who were shooting flares outside the court.

The edicts issued Wednesday have galvanized anger brewing against Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood, from which he hails, ever since he took office in June as Egypt’s first freely elected president. Critics accuse the Brotherhood — which has dominated elections the past year — and other Islamists of monopolizing power and doing little to bring real reform or address Egypt’s mounting economic and security woes.

Oppositon groups have called for new nationwide rallies Tuesday — and the Muslim Brotherhood has called for rallies supporting Morsi the same day, setting the stage for new violence.

Morsi supporters counter that the edicts were necessary to prevent the courts, which already dissolved the elected lower house of parliament, from further holding up moves to stability by disbanding the assembly writing the new constitution, as judges were considering doing. Like parliament was, the assembly is dominated by Islamists. Morsi accuses Mubarak loyalists in the judiciary of seeking to thwart the revolution’s goals and barred the judiciary from disbanding the constitutional assembly or parliament’s upper house.

In an interview with a handful of journalists, including The Associated Press, Nobel Peace laureate ElBaradei raised alarm over the impact of Morsi’s rulings, saying he had become “a new pharaoh.”
“There is a good deal of anger, chaos, confusion. Violence is spreading to many places and state authority is starting to erode slowly,” he said. “We hope that we can manage to do a smooth transition without plunging the country into a cycle of violence. But I don’t see this happening without Mr. Morsi rescinding all of this.”

Speaking of Egypt’s powerful military, ElBaradei said, “I am sure they are as worried as everyone else. You cannot exclude that the army will intervene to restore law and order” if the situation gets out of hand.
But anti-Morsi factions are chronically divided, with revolutionary youth activists, new liberal political parties that have struggled to build a public base and figures from the Mubarak era, all of whom distrust each other. The judiciary is also an uncomfortable cause for some to back, since it includes many Mubarak appointees who even Morsi opponents criticize as too tied to the old regime.
Opponents say the edicts gave Morsi near dictatorial powers, neutering the judiciary when he already holds both executive and legislative powers. One of his most controversial edicts gave him the right to take any steps to stop “threats to the revolution,” vague wording that activists say harkens back to Mubarak-era emergency laws.
Tens of thousands of people took to the streets in nationwide protests on Friday, sparking clashes between anti-and pro-Morsi crowds in several cities that left more than 200 people wounded.

On Saturday, new clashed broke out in the southern city of Assiut. Morsi opponents and members of the Muslim Brotherhood swung sticks and threw stones at each other outside the offices of the Brotherhood’s political party, leaving at least seven injured.
ElBaradei and a six other prominent liberal leaders have announced the formation of a National Salvation Front aimed at rallying all non-Islamist groups together to force Morsi to rescind his edicts.

The National Salvation Front leadership includes several who ran against Morsi in this year’s presidential race — Hamdeen Sabahi, who finished a close third, former foreign minister Amr Moussa and moderate Islamist Abdel-Moneim Aboul-Fotouh. ElBaradei says the group is also pushing for the creation of a new constitutional assembly and a unity government.
ElBaradei said it would be a long process to persuade Morsi that he “cannot get away with murder.”

“There is no middle ground, no dialogue before he rescinds this declaration. There is no room for dialogue until then.”
The grouping seems to represent a newly assertive political foray by ElBaradei, the former chief of the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency. ElBaradei returned to Egypt in the year before Mubarak’s fall, speaking out against his rule, and was influential with many of the youth groups that launched the anti-Mubarak revolution.

But since Mubarak’s fall, he has been criticized by some as too Westernized, elite and Hamlet-ish, reluctant to fully assert himself as an opposition leader.

The Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice political party, once headed by Morsi, said Saturday in a statement that the president’s decision protects the revolution against former regime figures who have tried to erode elected institutions and were threatening to dissolve the constitutional assembly.

The Brotherhood warned in another statement that there were forces trying to overthrow the elected president in order to return to power. It said Morsi has a mandate to lead, having defeated one of Mubarak’s former prime ministers this summer in a closely contested election.

Morsi’s edicts also removed Abdel-Meguid Mahmoud, the prosecutor general first appointed by Mubarak, who many Egyptians accused of not prosecuting former regime figures strongly enough.

Speaking to a gathering of judges cheering support for him at the high court building in Cairo, Mahmoud warned of a “vicious campaign” against state institutions. He also said judicial authorities are looking into the legality of the decision to remove him — setting up a Catch-22 of legitimacy, since under Morsi’s decree, the courts cannot overturn any of his decisions.
“I thank you for your support of judicial independence,” he told the judges.

Morsi will have to reverse his decision to avoid the anger of the people,” said Ahmed Badrawy, a labor ministry employee protesting at the courthouse. “We do not want to have an Iranian system here,” he added, referring to fears that hardcore Islamists may try to turn Egypt into a theocracy.

Several hundred protesters remained in Cairo’s Tahrir Square Saturday, where a number of tents have been erected in a sit-in following nearly a week of clashes with riot police.


1c)Answerable to no one
By George Will


There can be unseemly exposure of the mind as well as of the body, as the progressive mind is exposed in the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), a creature of the labyrinthine Dodd-Frank legislation. Judicial dismantling of the CFPB would affirm the rule of law and Congress’s constitutional role.
The CFPB’s director, Richard Cordray, was installed by one of Barack Obama’s spurious recess appointmentswhen the Senate was not in recess. Vitiating the Senate’s power to advise and consent to presidential appointments is congruent with the CFPB’s general lawlessness.

The CFPB nullifies Congress’s power to use the power of the purse to control bureaucracies because its funding — “determined by the director” — comes not from congressional appropriations but from the Federal Reserve. Untethered from all three branches of government, unlike anything created since 1789, the CFPB is uniquely sovereign: The president appoints the director for a five-year term — he can stay indefinitely, if no successor is confirmed — and the director can be removed, but not for policy reasons.
One CFPB request for $94 million in Federal Reserve funds was made on a single sheet of paper. Its 2012 budget estimated $130 million for — this is the full explanation — “other services.” So it has been hiring promiscuously and paying its hires lavishly: As of three months ago, approximately 60 percent of its then 958 employees were making more than $100,000 a year. Five percent were making $200,000 or more. (A Cabinet secretary makes $199,700.)
The CFPB’s mission is to prevent practices it is empowered to “declare” are “unfair, deceptive, or abusive.” Law is supposed to give people due notice of what is proscribed or prescribed, and developed law does so concerning “unfair” and “deceptive” practices. Not so, “abusive.”
The term, Cordray concedes, is “a little bit of a puzzle.” An “abusive” practice may not be unfair or deceptive yet nonetheless may be illegal. It is illegal, the law says, if it “interferes with” a consumer’s ability to “understand” a financial product, or takes “unreasonable” advantage of a consumer’s lack of understanding, or exploits “the inability of the consumer to protect” his or her interests regarding a financial product. This fog of indeterminate liabilities is causing some banks to exit the consumer mortgage business.
C. Boyden Gray and Adam J. White, lawyers representing a community bank challenging the constitutionality of the CFPB’s “formation and operation,” note in theWeekly Standard: “By writing new law through case-by-case enforcement, and by asserting ‘exception authority’ to effectively rewrite statutes, the CFPB is substantially increasing bankers’ compliance costs. The absence of clear, simple, up-front rules will force banks to hire ever more lawyers and regulatory compliance officers to keep up with changing laws — an outcome that inherently favors big banks over smaller ones.” This exacerbates the favoritism inherent in the substantial implicit subsidy Dodd-Frank confers on some banks by designating “systemically important financial institutions” that are “too big to fail.”
Even worse, say Gray and White (in their complaint for the community bank), Dodd-Frank “delegates effectively unbounded power to the CFPB, and couples that power with provisions insulating CFPB against meaningful checks” by the other branches of government. This nullifies the checks and balances of the system of separation of powers. Courts are too reluctant to restrict Congress’s power to delegate quasi-legislative powers, but the CFPB is an especially gross violation of the Constitution’s Article I, Section 1: “All legislative powers herein granted shall be vested” in Congress. By creating a CFPB that floats above the Constitution’s tripartite design of government, Congress did not merely degrade itself, it injured all Americans.
Like the Independent Payment Advisory Board, Obamacare’s health-care rationing panel, the CFPB embodies progressivism’s authoritarianism — removing much policymaking from elected representatives and entrusting it to unaccountable “experts” exercising an unfettered discretion incompatible with the rule of law. Similarly, when Obama allows states to waive work requirements that the 1996 welfare reform law explicitly made non-waivable, he evades the Constitution’s provision conferring a conditional presidential veto power — ignoring the law becomes preferable to a veto Congress can override. And the waivers make a mockery of the Constitution enjoining the president to “take care that the laws be faithfully executed.”
Philander Knox should be the Obama administration’s patron saint. When Theodore Roosevelt asked Attorney General Knox to concoct a defense for American behavior in acquiring the Panama Canal Zone, Knox replied: “Oh, Mr. President, do not let so great an achievement suffer from any taint of legality.”

1d)





Melanie Phillips 
So here we go again.
By Melanie Phillps

At 9 pm this evening Israel time, a ceasefire between Israel and the Palestinian terror groups of Gaza came into effect.

At 9.34, a rocket fired from Gaza exploded outside the southern Israel town of Shaar Hanegev, causing no injuries. By 10.01, 12 rockets had been fired into Israel.

The Times of Israel reports:

'Military sources indicate that they would not be surprised if rogue terror cells test the ceasefire in its early phases.'

Well of course. I mean, it's a bit unreasonable, isn't it, expect 'rogue terror cells' to honour a cease-fire - even if they are the very terror cells supposedly party to this agreement?  

Except that of course we have been here before. On January 18 2009, Israel's operation Cast Lead was halted by a ceasefire agreement between Israel and the Hamas. Two days later, residents of a kibbutz near Gaza ran for cover as an air raid siren sounded; an explosion was heard, but the government denied there had been an attack.

On January 28 2009, Hamas fired a rocket towards Sderot, followed by another rocket the following day, and then another at Ashkelon. Following that ceasefire in January 2009, it took almost four years and more than 1000 rockets from Gaza for Israel finally to take action when it started Operation Pillar of Defence last week.

This time, Israelis said to each other, we have to go in and finish the job that was so shamefully left unfinished last time. But now it looks as if history is to repeat itself. Israelis are dismayed; polls suggest that some 70 per cent of them are against this ceasefire. Can it really be that Netanyahu has caved?

The way this cease-fire was reached sounded alarm bells from the get-go. It was brokered by the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, with the driving actor apparently being her protégé, the President of Egypt, Mohamed Morsi.  

But Egypt is hardly a neutral actor in this drama. Morsi owes allegiance to the Muslim Brotherhood -- the parent body of the very Hamas that Israel has been fighting. The Brotherhood is pledged to wage both cultural and military jihad upon the west in order to Islamise it.  

It is the mortal enemy of both Israel and the west. Yet the Obama administration, along with the UK and France, actually helped put the Brotherhood into power in Egypt by helping get rid of President Mubarak. Under Morsi, Sinai has been allowed to become a real threat to Israel; in the past week, there were reports that Egypt was doing nothing to prevent jihadis from all over the region from going through Sinai into Gaza to join the war against Israel. In addition, Morsi is cosying up to Iran. Indeed, even Obama himself blurted out recently that  

'the U.S. would no longer consider the Egyptian government an ally, "but we don't consider them an enemy."'

Hillary Clinton, moreover, has astoundingly expressed her enthusiasm for the Brotherhood as 'moderates'. There are also  claims (which have been denied in a furious row) that her long time adviser Huma Abedin comes from a family with Brotherhood ties; and also that the State Department has been cosying up to the Brothers in a most alarming fashion.  

In other words, this ceasefire seems to be some kind of nightmarish joke.

At time of writing, the details are still unclear. The text that has been released is absurdly vague. And  Netanyahu's remarks this evening on the cease-fire were also studiously imprecise:

'In a phone call I had this evening with President Obama, I agreed with him that we should give the cease-fire a chance in order to enable a lull in the situation and allow for the citizens of Israel to return to routine.'

Well, 'a lull in the situation' hardly sounds like he envisages this cease-fire is going to last very long. Yet he has agreed to it. Why?  

Maybe a clue lay in this bit of his speech:

'Under these conditions we are required to navigate this ship, the State of Israel, wisely and responsibly while taking into account all considerations - military and political alike. This is what a responsible government does, and it is what we did here: we made use of our military might while applying political considerations.

'...As Prime Minister, I have the responsibility, and it is the highest responsibility, to make the right steps to ensure our security. That is what I have done and it is what I will continue to do.'

So in deciding how best to ensure the security of Israel he had to take into account political considerations. That may well imply that, for all his professions of solid support for Israel, Obama had placed him in an impossible position.  

There have been rumours that Obama made the price of his support for a Gaza ground operation acceptance of a Palestine state in much of the West Bank. Whether or not this is so, it is possible that in some way Obama did turn the screws on Netanyahu to force him to accept a clearly unstable and even farcical ceasefire.  

Maybe in the poker game he is forced to play with Obama, Netanyahu has calculated that the ceasefire won't hold and then he'll be justified in going back into Gaza. Or maybe he just bottled out.  

Meanwhile, Hamas is celebrating a victory over Israel. It has not been smashed, it retains several thousand rockets - and unless Iran is dealt with, it will continue to receive ever more accurate and deadly missiles which it will be capable of firing at Israel.

Netanyahu has still left open option of 'severe military action'. We'll know in the next few days and weeks whether this is just another empty threat or not - and whether the 'normal routines' that Netanyahu envisages now returning for Israel's citizens will see them back living in those shelters.

***************************************************
Israel arrests Hamas, Islamic Jihad cell behind Tel Aviv bus bomb

Sources say operatives from West Bank village of Beit Laqia recruited a Palestinian who was awarded Israeli citizenship; Shin Bet: More arrests underway.

By Gili Cohen 
Israeli security forces apprehended the suspected perpetrators of a bombing attack on a Tel Aviv bus, a lifted gag order revealed on Thursday, with Shin Bet and police saying that the attack was planned and orchestrated by Islamic Jihad and Hamas operatives.

A bomb exploded on a bus in central Tel Aviv at a little after noon Wednesday, wounding at least 28 people. As of Wednesday night six people were admitted to hospital overnight. Of these, three had surgery for moderate injuries that were described as not life-threatening, and three had mild injuries only. The remaining 26 people who were injured in the incident were treated for minor injuries and released.

On Thursday, security sources said they apprehended the operatives responsible for the attack, saying they were apprehended in an broad arrest operation on Wednesday.

According to the sources, operatives linked to Hamas and Islamic Jihad admitted in their interrogation to preparing the bomb used in the attack, as well as for choosing the bombing's target and for purchasing the cell phone used to remotely detonate the device.

The Shin Bet said that most of those arrested were from the West Bank village of Beit Laqia, adding that they recruited a resident of the Israeli Arab town of Taibeh, who originally resided in Beit Laqia but was awarded Israeli citizenship for family reunion purposes.

In order to allow his entrance into Tel Aviv, suspected cell members took a car belonging to the man's Israeli employer, which the Israeli citizens then used in order to enter the city and place the bomb. He subsequently updated Y., considered by security forces to be the cell's commander in Beit Laqia.

Shin Bet sources said that the investigation was pending, and that additional arrests were expected.

Following the attack on Wednesday, security officials suggested that the device was relatively small, and consequently caused fewer and less severe casualties than a more powerful bomb would.

After the incident police officers combed the surrounding streets and beyond in an effort to apprehend the perpetrator and anyone who might have assisted him or her, including with transportation.

Central District Police Commander Benzi Sau announced the force's highest state of alert, "Code Dagger." The heightened policing level, which including roadblocks at major roads and intersections, snarled traffic throughout Tel Aviv for several hours.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2)


Israel Tests Brains, Not Brawn Gaza Strategy
[Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA:

"According to the security strategist, deterrence will be measured by how
Iran internalizes the technological and intelligence superiority shown in
the eight-day fight, as well as Egypt’s resolve in working with the U.S. and
others to enforce the cease-fire and stem the flow of weapons smuggled into
Gaza from Sinai."

Cynics might note that in the past information to the public regarding the
extent of the flow of weapons Egypt was allowing into the Gaza Strip was at
times either understated or simply almost nonexistent when Israeli
authorities believed it served Israel's interests to do so. ]

Despite domestic pressure to escalate its fight against
Gaza-launched rockets, Israel’s agreement last week to a U.S.- and
Egyptian-brokered cease-fire marked a leap of faith in the deterrent effect
of the surgical standoff attack.

Compared with the so-called “crazy landlord” strategy employed in the
six-week Lebanon war in 2006 and the three-week Gaza operation four years
ago, a cool and calculating landlord presided over the eight-day Pillar of
Defense campaign, which ended Nov. 21 without a ground war and with
historically low casualties.

There’s an expression in Hebrew that aptly describes the strategy put to the
test in recently concluded combat. It’s called “mo’ach, lo ko’ach,” meaning
brains, not brawn.

While Gazan casualty figures remain in dispute, with Israel claiming 120
killed and 900 wounded, compared with the 163 killed and 1,200 listed by the
Hamas Health Ministry as wounded, even the higher estimates pale next to to
the 1,400 killed and thousands wounded in Israel’s 2008-2009 Cast Lead
campaign.

At the end of hostilities, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said it operated
against 1,500 targets, including 19 command centers, 30 senior operatives,
hundreds of underground rocket launchers, 140 smuggling tunnels, 66 terror
tunnels, dozens of Hamas operation rooms and bases, 26 weapon manufacturing
and storage facilities, and dozens of long-range rocket launch sites.
More than 1,500 rockets were launched from the Gaza Strip during the
fighting, 875 of which landed in open areas. Of the 573 rockets designated
by Israel’s Iron Dome system as threats to life or property, there were 421
interceptions, a success rate of about 85 percent.
Impact on Deterrence

“Our objectives were achieved in full. Hamas received a painful blow,”
claimed Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak as the truce took effect. Barak
cited strengthened deterrence as the leading objective.

But skeptics warn of the heavy price Israel will pay when Barak’s stated
strategy of “maximum casualties to terrorists, minimum casualties to
civilians” ends up weakening Israeli deterrence. They note that despite an
intensive standoff attack, Hamas-based militants fired only a fraction of
their estimated 10,000-strong rocket arsenal. And instead of uprooting or
paralyzing the regime in Gaza, critics say Hamas gained diplomatic
legitimacy through the negotiated cease-fire, despite its designation by the
U.S. and European Union-as a terrorist organization.

As for Israel, any diplomatic legitimacy and security perks to be gained by
heeding international calls to end the fight without a ground war will be
meaningless, so the argument goes, if the other side is not sufficiently
deterred.

“Those Islamic extremists in Gaza — exponentially more so than the secular
leadership still clinging to power in the West Bank — are influenced only by
death and destruction,” many here said.

“If the other side does not fear for their very survival, they cannot be
deterred,” a former senior Israeli military commander said.
Skeptics point to the five rockets launched from Gaza barely an hour after
the cease-fire went into effect.

“Surgical strikes have been extremely effective, but it remains to be seen
if the scalpel alone can deter the other side,” the former commander said
last week.

At a news conference announcing Israel’s agreement to halt the fighting,
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu acknowledged the concerns of those
pressing for escalation.

“I know that there are citizens who expected much harsher military activity,
and it could very well be that such action will be required,” he said. “But
at this time, the correct thing for ... Israel is to maximize the
opportunity for an extended cease-fire.”

Netanyahu attributed his decision to strategic changes sweeping the region,
and alluded to a greater task at hand in Iran and White House pledges of
additional support.

Tactical Targets, Strategic Message

Retired Brig. Gen. Avi Benayahu, a former IDF spokesman who directed Israel’s
public relations strategy during the Cast Lead operation, said circumstances
drive strategy. Operation Pillar of Defense was not a war, he said, but a
“punishing operation.” Historically low enemy casualties should not
necessarily affect deterrence in a negative way, he said.
“There’s a direct correlation between the level of firepower and
international legitimacy, just as there often is linkage between the effects
of firepower and deterrence,” Benayahu said. “But that’s simplistic; there’s
more to the story.”

In the previous Gaza campaign, Israel’s leaders felt compelled to bring in
ground forces to ease “the trauma” of the Lebanon war, he said.
“In Cast Lead, Hamas and other Gaza-based terrorists were our operational
targets, but our strategic message was directed to Hezbollah [in Lebanon],”
he said. “This time around, our strategic message was directed at Egypt,
Iran and other players in the region.”

According to the security strategist, deterrence will be measured by how
Iran internalizes the technological and intelligence superiority shown in
the eight-day fight, as well as Egypt’s resolve in working with the U.S. and
others to enforce the cease-fire and stem the flow of weapons smuggled into
Gaza from Sinai.

An IDF spokesman, Brig. Gen. Yoav Mordechai, said deterrence will be
measured in the coming weeks and months and should not be judged by residual
rockets launched in the days following the cease-fire.

When asked whether the operation’s comparatively low death toll could sap
deterrence, as many here argue, he replied, “You don’t need to kill
civilians in order to strengthen deterrence. That’s exactly what the other
side hopes to achieve.

“They know we don’t intentionally target innocents, but their entire
strategy is based on exploiting these poor people. They’re counting on high
casualties in order to delegitimize us. So why play into their hands?” said
Mordechai, an Arabic-speaking former infantryman and intel officer with
years of operational experience in the West Bank and Gaza.

“Don’t be misled by the low civilian casualty figures. Once Hamas leaders
and their remaining combatants emerge from underground and witness the
damage wrought from our surgical strikes, they’ll internalize the heavy
price paid for their latest escalation.”

Mordechai’s intelligence background influenced a revamp of the informational
strategy used in planning and executing Operation Pillar of Defense. To
begin, Israel chose a name that resonated well with international audiences,
unlike Cast Lead, with its harsh connotations when translated from Hebrew.
More important, unlike in the earlier operation, where journalists had to
petition Israel’s Supreme Court for permission to cross into Gaza, the IDF
provided reasonable access to events taking place on both sides of the
border.

Mordechai’s office also embedded public relations specialists in IDF
intelligence and operational directorates, with immediate access to
information of unfolding events. In parallel, the IDF took full advantage of
Facebook, Twitter, text messaging and other new media tools.
“We took a strategic decision that in this campaign, we had nothing to
hide,” Mordechai said.


2a) Israel successfully tests Magic Wand system
System meant to intercept any missile fired at Israel from a distance of at least 70 km, slated to become operational in 2014
By Yoav Zitun


Israel's Defense Ministry and the US's Missile Defense Agency have completed the first round of tests on the Magic Wand system. The test was reportedly successful raising the chances of future investment.

The interceptor missile system is being developed for the Defense Ministry by Israel's Rafael Advanced Defense Systems and the US's Raytheon Co. It was designed to intercept Hezbollah missiles fired from Lebanon.
   

Israel is counting on the system to become the centerpiece of its air defense layout and provide a solution for a variety of short-range ballistic missiles, large caliber rockets and cruise missiles.

If development goes ahead as planned, the system will be able to intercept any object launched from a distance of at least 70 kilometers.

The system was designed to intercept ballistic missile warheads as well as long-range rockets. The interceptor missile, which is based on the most cutting edge technology in air defense, is estimated to cost $1 million.

In May 2011, defense officials estimated that the Magic Wand would become operational in 2014. Meanwhile, Israel is already working on a more sophisticated system with Boeing.

On Sunday, Defense Minister Ehud Barak congratulated the Israeli engineers working on the system.

"The great success of the Iron Dome batteries during Operation Pillar of Defense proves beyond a shadow of a doubt the tremendous importance of anti-missile systems," Barak said.

"Israel is a world leader in this department thanks to the Israeli defense industries and its developers."


A senior official at the Defense Ministry's research and development department said Sunday's test was complex. "The current test simulated the relevant threats the system will be called to deal with," he said.

"This is a landmark in Israel's operational capability in the multi-layered defense layout. There will be other experiments."

A senior official at Rafael added, "The Magic Wand's radar tracked the target from the beginning until interception. Unlike the Iron Dome, it's a system without batteries that operates as a national unit."

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

No comments: