Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Today's Story is Already In The Bible!


I admit to being an unabashed hawk and I realize Israel cannot bomb the Palestinians into their senses so at least I can point out the hypocrisy.
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We are off to Orlando to visit with our daughter Abby and her husband, Brian and Dagny and our son, Daniel, and his wife, Tamara, are flying in from Pittsburgh with Stella.

Brian's mother and father and maternal grandparents will join us as well on Thanksgiving Day.

I hope everyone has a wonderful Thanksgiving.

This will be my last memo until after we return late Sunday.
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Like Yogi said, it ain't over til its over. (See 1 below.)
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Roubini sticks to his guns.

I agree with Roubini regarding market volatility ahead and the basis for it.  I also agree that 2013 corporate earnings are not likely to equal  2012's.

Where I probably part ways with Roubini, is my belief politicians will work out some compromise so that we avoid the 'fiscal cliff' but whether what is worked out is something beyond a near term band aid remains to be seen.

Certainly Obama has walked into a hornet's nest in terms of world and domestic events and one would hope he will try and bend enough to allow Republicans to meet him in a meaningful compromise. (See 2 below.)

In typical broker fashion Goldman's strategist talks out of both sides of his mouth warning a  near term drop in S&P which will set the stage for a longer term market  recovery.

Even if we avoid, the 'fiscal cliff, ' this analyst writes, corporations will remain uncertain over its bottom line implications and thus this continued uncertainty will roil the markets. (See 2a below.)
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A very clear eyed and sober assessment of what Israel faces vis a vis Gaza.

Once again the experts were proven wrong. (Note in my book I put - non expert - after my name.)

You cannot appease radicals who are bent on your destruction.  You can only  bring them to their knees and that is about it.  Anything else is fool-hearty   This goes against rational thinking because most humans do not wish to believe life should be a constant battle but when you are surrounded by vermin you must think differently, outside the box as it were.

For whatever reason, Arabs and Muslims have a different culture and mind set about living in peace. Yes, many would like to break the mold but they seem unable to select reasonable leadership. Until such time as they are capable of doing so, the only alternative for Israel is to respond with overwhelming force when the unsolicited provocations become untenable.

The problem Israel will forever face is world  hypocrisy and demands they always be the one to give in and this is exactly the wrong approach. Feed a bully and you increase his appetite.
But tiny nations are not given any latitude by larger nations.  They are simply pawns on a chess board. The world belongs to the knights, rooks, kings and queens.

The Palestinians living in Gaza were given a chance to make the area blossom and they chose Hamas.

Israel remains Daniel and the world the giant. Today's story is all in the bible.
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Palestinians back to bus bombing. The world should be glad I am not head of Israel's air force. I would be carpet bombing Gaza with nukes.

The best thing Hillary can do is go home and let Israel finish the job.(See 3 below.)
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Dick
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1)On the recent Election Day, a new federal class action lawsuit was filed in the Tampa U.S. District Court, over several big economic and other issues, at least two (2) of which should be of extremely prime interest to every GOP official, let alone the public.


In the suit, ObamaCare is declared 100% void, for any of four (4) constitutional issues, including: (a) it unlawfully attempts to invoke both primary tenets of Communism; (b) there was never an actually-valid "magic 60" of Democratic Senators during parliamentary voting processes; (c) it is a directly-unlawful act of Taxation Without Representation; and (d), it was never properly signed into law. Worse yet, all of the previous cases filed against ObamaCare are utterly void for lack of proper parties.  Strict federal statutes mandate that all challenges to the constitutionality of acts by Congress must be defended by the Congress, itself, and by no other party, also expressly prohibiting the DOJ from these kinds of cases. The entire circus of ObamaCare has been an utter mockery of the law, top to bottom.


The suit also includes direct "ex rel" claims on behalf of all 50 States and Commonwealths, in Breach of Contractagainst the Federal Government, for failing its enumerated contractual duties under our Founding Documents (i.e., the Declaration of Independence through the Bill of Rights), as, together, those Founding Documents also comprise a still-binding, core contract, actionable under Contract Law.


Therefore, should at least 30 of the sister States and Commonwealths now enter their formal Appearances into the lawsuit, and cast that minimal 3/5ths simple majority vote in total, the actual legal result is a binding, formal declaration of Breach of Contract against the Federal Government, and so then the States may declare and implement any and all repairs necessary for this nation, themselves, even including any desired firing and hiring of federal personnel, top to bottom, changing programs and services, and/or whatever else.


There are currently 29 Republican Governors (plus the new flip to GOP for NC, for a total of 30 soon), and 2 more States which have Republican Attorneys General.  Rhode Island has an Independent Governor.  The other 17 are Democratic Govs/AGs.  But it only takes 30 States and/or Commonwealths in total - any 30 of them.  If all GOP state and local parties would now compel their respective Governors and Attorney Generals to enter that State's formal legal Appearance into the case provided, the game would finally be over for the rogue Federal Government, legally declared in full Breach of Contract, and the States could temporarily, just temporarily until basic repairs are implemented, actually take over and manage all federal affairs by and through the National Governor's Association, which has a broad and established leadership hierarchy (even mirroring well the Federal Government's units), fully capable of doing just that.


In any event, whether the Breach of Contract claim would ever receive the required minimum of 30 States voting in majority or not, the lawsuit itself is of very major importance in several other areas, such as the abortion+contraception issue, the fiat money versus gold standard issue (at least 14 States have had 2011-2012 legislation regarding a gold/silver standard), and $1.5T in welfare spending
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------2)Roubini: Worst to Come for Economy, Markets in 2013 
By Forrest JOnes

The worst is yet to come for markets and the global economy in 2013, according to New York University economist Nouriel Roubini.


Major economies are either in a recession or experiencing slow growth rates, while in the United States, uncertainty surrounding the fiscal cliff — a combination of tax hikes and spending cuts due to strike next year — will roil markets as well.

Big emerging markets like China are cooling their growth rates, while in a slew of countries, national and regional elections are set to take place in the near future, including in China, Korea, Japan, Israel, Germany, Italy and Catalonia, the latter being a pivotal Spanish province whose financing needs affects Spain and the broader Eurozone.


U.S. stock prices, however, are high thanks to recent rallies stemming from Federal Reserve stimulus measures such as rate cuts or asset purchases, but with fundamentals eroding, stocks could plummet next year.

“[V]aluations in stock markets are stretched: price-earnings ratios are now high, while growth in earnings per share is slackening, and will be subject to further negative surprises as growth and inflation remain low. With uncertainty, volatility and tail risks on the rise again, the correction could accelerate quickly,” Roubini wrote in a Project Syndicate column.

Meanwhile, war could erupt in the Middle East amid rising tensions between Israel and Iran, which could further disrupt economic recovery and global financial markets next year.

In short, 2013 is shaping up to be a very volatile year.

”As consumers, firms and investors become more cautious and risk-averse, the equity-market rally of the second half of 2012 has crested,” Roubini wrote in the column. 

“And, given the seriousness of the downside risks to growth in advanced and emerging economies alike, the correction could be a bellwether of worse to come for the global economy and financial markets in 2013.”

Moody’s, meanwhile, stripped France of its triple-A credit rating, downgrading the country a notch to Aa1 from Aaa and left a negative outlook, meaning more downgrades are possible.

“France’s long-term economic growth outlook is negatively affected by multiple structural challenges, including its gradual, sustained loss of competitiveness and the long-standing rigidities of its labor, goods and service markets,” the ratings agency said in a release. 

“France’s fiscal outlook is uncertain as a result of its deteriorating economic prospects, both in the short term due to subdued domestic and external demand, and in the longer term due to the structural rigidities noted above.”

The country is also less cushioned from external shocks than in the past, Moody’s added.

Morgan Stanley economists, meanwhile, have said the global economy faces a “full-blown recession next year,” with global gross domestic product due to contract 2 percent next year under a worst-case scenario if U.S. policymakers fail to prevent the economy from going over the fiscal cliff and if their European counterparts fail to fight the debt crisis across the Atlantic.

“More than ever, the economic outlook hinges upon the actions taken or not taken by governments and central banks,” Morgan Stanley said in a report, according to CNBC.

Investors, meanwhile, need to stay on their toes.

“Importantly, investors should keep an open mind and be prepared to switch between the scenarios 
as policy developments unfold,” Morgan Stanley economists concluded.

2a)Goldman Sachs: Brace for 8% Drop in S&P
By Forrest Jones





Investors can expect the Standard & Poor’s 500 to drop 8 percent by the end of this year due to tax and spending uncertainties, Goldman Sachs analysts warn.

The sell off would come fresh in the heels of a 7 percent decline posted since September.

Blame uncertainty surrounding the fiscal cliff, a combination of tax hikes and spending cuts scheduled to kick in at the end of this year, which could siphon over $600 billion out of the economy next year and send the country sliding into a recession if left unchecked by Congress.

Even if lawmakers do strike a deal, uncertainty alone will roil markets as individuals and businesses still won’t know what they are going to be paying in taxes next year, including taxes on investment income such as dividends or capital gains.

Add to that uncertainty that lawmakers must debate anew whether or not to raise the government’s debt ceiling early next year.

“Uncertainty swirling around the fiscal cliff that must be resolved by year-end, the pending jump in capital gains taxes at the start of 2013 and the debt ceiling that will be reached in late February, represent clear and present downside risks to the market in the near-term,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a note, CNBC reported.

The S&P 500 is currently trading around 1,350.

David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, wrote in the note that he was pegging the chances of lawmakers striking a deal by year-end at 55 percent.

Once the fiscal cliff is resolved, the S&P could post nice gains in 2013, gaining 16 percent by the end of next year from current levels.

“The S&P 500 has near-term political risk but long-term policy support,” Kostin said in the note. 

“Although we believe investors will have an opportunity over the near term to buy the S&P 500 at a level below today, portfolio managers with a longer-term horizon should consider increasing equity exposure.” 

Some investors say even if New Year’s Day comes and goes without a deal, it won’t be the end of the world.

Higher tax bills won’t come due the next day and spending cuts won’t take place on Jan. 2 either, which would give policymakers time to avoid disaster.

“It is not impossible at all that they miss by a little and then come back and get it,” said billionaire investor Ken Fisher of Fisher Investments, which oversees $38 billion in equities, Reuters reported. 

“There’s a minor risk ... but getting it done 10 days later is not really a big deal.”

Legendary investor Warren Buffett agreed.

“We are not going to permanently cripple ourselves just because 535 people can’t get along,” Buffett told CNN, referring to Congress.

Even if lawmakers take two months to strike a deal, the United States can still avoid a recession next year.

“The fact that they can’t get along for the month of January is not going to torpedo the economy.”

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Op-Ed: WESTERN FRONT: A Moment of Truth in Israel

Daniel Greenfield - Arutz-7,  November 18th, 2012

Seven years ago the Israeli government decided to forcibly evict the 8000 Jewish residents of Gaza and withdraw all bases and forces from the area. The experts, some with the government and some with the media, assured everyone that it would be for the best and that withdrawal would actually improve the security situation in the country.
It was put about that resources and lives were being wasted protecting Israelis living in Gaza, while those Israelis insisted that their presence in Gaza was protecting Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. The experts laughed at them. Now the experts are keeping an ear open for air raid sirens because as it turned out, those farmers and teachers, those men and women growing lettuce in greenhouses and building homes on hilltops, from which rockets are being launched, were the ones protecting Tel Aviv.
“They are now being asked to relinquish these accomplishments for the greater good,” the government press release said of their houses and farms, of their synagogues and greenhouses. And the greater good was served. The greenhouses were turned into Hamas training camps and the synagogues were burnt to the ground. Rockets fly into the air from the ruins of broken houses.
No longer will your sons have to die in Gaza, the experts said. A month later rockets were falling on Sderot. A year later Gilad Shalit had been kidnapped and Israeli soldiers were back again, dying in a Gaza that was now run by Hamas.
Among the bundle of promises from the Sharon government, was that the Gaza withdrawal was part of an oral agreement with the United States limiting further withdrawals and concessions. That agreement lasted for another few years until Obama took office and no one in his administration could ever remember such an agreement or accept its validity.
“The moment of truth has arrived,” Netanyahu said, on resigning from the Sharon government. “At the moment of truth, a man – especially a leader – must ask himself: 'What are you doing, what do you stand for, what are you fighting for?'”
These moments of truth come fast and furious in Israel, but hardly anyone waits around for an answer. Not even Netanyahu, who knows better.
Hamas' objectives have always been straightforward. Its commanders and suicide bombers, its militia members, bomb experts, smugglers, launchers and embezzlers know what they are fighting for.
“Our struggle against the Jews is extremely wide-ranging and grave,” the Hamas charter says. “Israel, by virtue of its being Jewish and of having a Jewish population, defies Islam and the Muslims.” It has the simplicity that you would expect from the Muslim Brotherhood, a fascist organization that drew equal inspiration from the Koran and Nazism.
What however is Israel fighting for? Since Oslo, the slogan of Israeli moderate conservatives has been “Peace with Security” even though it was quite clear that you could pursue peace and have neither peace nor security, or you could pursue security and have peace. Their slogan was muddled and their policies even more so.
Israel may have superior firepower, but like most Western countries, its policymakers are too muddled to be able to apply that firepower in a useful way. The limited scale warfare that has been adopted by America, including drone assassinations and extensive security measures, came out of Israel's futile efforts to find a more humanitarian style of warfare that would limit civilian and military casualties. But all that these measures really did was make life with terror more manageable.
Withdrawals and a variety of defensive measures such as Iron Dome made it seem like Israel could maintain the status quo. Peace with Security meant no peace and no security, but enough of the illusion of both that it would seem as if the slogan had been fulfilled. Suicide bombings dropped and the terrorists were forced to resort to rocket attacks and drive-by shootings with much lower casualty rates. Rates so low that those who didn't live in Sderot or Samaria could ignore them.
Instead of ending the threat, Israeli conservatives had found a way to live with the pain of terrorism while turning their focus to economic reforms. The left, with its emphasis on finding a permanent solution through appeasement and withdrawals, was discredited and collapsed. But the problem had not gone away.
While Israel slept, the makeup of the region changed. Hamas had formerly been strongly backed by Syria and Iran, with some support from more distant Islamist Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Egypt and Jordan were both wary of Hamas because their governments were concerned about being overthrown by the Muslim Brotherhood.
The Arab Spring put Islamists into power in Egypt. Suddenly the Muslim Brotherhood was running things on both sides of the Rafah Crossing. Hamas switched its allegiance from the shaky Shiite axis of Iran, Syria and Iraq over to the rising Sunni Islamist axis of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey and Egypt. The Islamist terrorist group was no longer an isolated arm of Iranian foreign policy, it could count on the backing of Turkey, Qatar and Egypt.
Not long after Qatar's leader paid a visit to Hamas, this latest war began. Like so many conflicts with terrorist groups, it isn't about any specific domestic objective. The objectives are regional and now international. Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood regime is looking shaky and the Gaza lifeline has come at a perfect time, allowing Morsi to turn the attention of Egyptians away from the shaky economy and some dubious proposals, including early store closings, over to familiar territory denouncing Israel.
Under Iran or Egypt, Hamas is not fighting for Palestinian nationalism, which was already a fiction manufactured by Soviet propagandists looking up to prop up a Greater Syria, but to support the aims of Iranian and Egyptian domestic policy. And suddenly those aims were uncomfortably close.
Terrorist militias serve an ideology, but function as a business. Al Qaeda, Hamas, Fatah or any other of the many groups blanketing the region, need money and weapons to be viable. They need state sponsors and the states that sponsor them want something in return. Terrorist groups find sponsors the way that Renaissance artists found patrons, they show off their skills and wait for someone to come calling with money and guns. And then they perform for their patrons.
Israel's terrorist problem is unsolvable through any form of peace negotiations because there will always be sponsors. A terrorist group may sign a peace agreement, but then it quickly gets on the phone to its sponsors to assure them that it will go on committing acts of terror. Its militias are spun off into “separatist” or “splinter” groups that go on doing what they did before. And the group then asks its new friend American and Israeli friends for guns and money to fight these extremists. That way the terrorist groups get twice the money for terrorism and a farce of counter-terrorism.
Even if a terrorist leader is sincere, his movement is nothing but an umbrella group for terrorist militias. If the umbrella group stops funneling money from state sponsors to local militias, the militias go into business for themselves. And there is such a demand by sponsors for more and more “extreme” militias, that even the existing terrorist groups find themselves having to compete with newer and more violently Islamist militias.
Peace is useless and hopeless under these conditions. Fatah claimed that it could not control Hamas. Hamas claims it cannot control the men shooting rockets out of Gaza. The people shooting rockets out of Gaza will claim that they cannot control their fingers on the trigger. It's plausible deniability all the way down when it's convenient, but the real control is in the hands of regional regimes who feed coins into the slot and get out terrorism.
So what then is Israel fighting for? Peace with security. Which means slapping down Hamas hard enough that it will have to wait another 3-4 years before trying the same thing again, this time with bigger and better rockets. That was the policy six years ago and it's the policy today.
Israel will bomb Hamas targets, kill some of its senior leaders and destroy some of its weapons stockpiles. Its soldiers will enter Gaza, arrest some more senior leaders, walk into traps that will kill some of its best and brightest, and then withdraw again while Hamas celebrates its victory in the Battle of XX or YY where five or six Israeli soldiers were killed, along with ten or fifteen Hamas terrorists. And then the Battle of XX will become the Massacre of XX and lead to a documentary that will be doing an extended tour of American and Canadian campuses during the next Israeli Apartheid Week.
This is the status quo and it cannot be maintained indefinitely. The air raid sirens going off in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem warn that the war is heading into unsustainable territory. As Iran goes nuclear, Hizbullah is trying to become another Iran and Hamas is trying to become another Hizbullah. It is not a nuisance that can be ignored. Israel has no answer to the growing threat except to try and contain it through the same old methods that have now put Jerusalem and Tel Aviv into the line of fire.
Since 1992, Israel has been retreating and those retreats have replaced secure borders with borders of terror. Rather than reversing those withdrawals, the right has been satisfied with trying to stabilize them. But that has only created safe spaces for terror while setting the stage for the next round of retreats by the left which will create even broader territories of terror. These territories are staging areas for the next invasion, which will come not from Hamas, but a Muslim Brotherhood Egypt and an Islamist Turkey, once Israel has been sufficiently softened up.
The only way to end the threat of Hamas in Gaza is by retaking Gaza, but no such policy is on the table. Like America, Israel responds to terrorism not with the aim of achieving decisive victories, but with a policy of intimidating the terrorists into scaling down their attacks. This is a political policy of political generals and leads to terror becoming a permanent institution.
Israel has tried negotiating its way out of the terrorist trap. It has not tried fighting its way out. Israel has tried to escape the occupation, but in a region where you are either the occupier or the occupied, it may have no choice.
Any moment of truth must begin and end with a realistic assessment of the realities that you face. Israel faces a proxy war by its neighbors and like most proxy wars, it is the opening round to a true war ending in true occupation and genocide.
Its neighbors know what they are fighting for. They are fighting Israel for the same reason that Shiites fight Sunnis and that Sunnis persecute Christians. They are fighting Israel because “by virtue of its being Jewish and of having a Jewish population” it is different and must be crushed for the national and religious aims of any proper Islamist country.
But what is Israel fighting for? Like so many modern countries it is fighting so as not to fight. It is fighting for peace. It is fighting to escape from fighting. And so like many modern countries it cannot bring itself to fight hard enough to break the cycle. Instead it fights just hard enough to defer the fight by another few years and the cycle continues.
Israel can retake Gaza once. Or it can retake Gaza every few years. It can have soldiers patrol Gaza or it can have rockets falling on Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. The options are as unfortunate as they are clear. The only hope for peace lies in driving out the terrorist militias who have turned Gaza and the West Bank into their own Somalia and Afghanistan and reclaiming the territory. Because after this fight is through, the next generation of rockets will go on being built and smuggled. And they will not fall in empty fields.
There can be farms and greenhouses on the hilltops of Gaza. Or there can be rockets.
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At least 25 injured, 5 seriously, in Tel Aviv bus bombing. Alert for more attacks


Magen David (Israel's equivalent of The Red Cross.) declared a multi-casualty episode following a bombing attack on a bus in the Tel Aviv main street of Shaul Hamelekh Blvd. Wednesday, Nov. 21, in which at least 25 people were injured, five seriously.  An emergency has been declared in the area around the blast, focusing on the nearby Defense Ministry and ID General Staff headquarters and Ichilov hospital, where the staff were sent to bomb shelters. Tel Aviv’s huge Mercaz Azrieli mall, office and apartment building has just been closed and evacuated.

A witness of the bus bombing reported a man placing a package on one of the seats and exiting the bus. Another claimed the package was thrown into the bus through a window. A large dragnet, backed by helicopters, has been thrown around the area for suspects and abettors. The attack took place as US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was closeted in Jerusalem for her second meeting with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders to discuss the stalled Gaza ceasefire talks in cairo.  

The Tel Aviv bus attack, recalling the 2000 Palestinian suicide bombing offensive plaguing Israel streets, could prompt an early Israeli decision to go forward with the IDF ground operation against Gaza terrorists.

Police have been on alert for terrorist attacks since last week when Hamas and Jihad Islami threatened to revert to their suicide bombing campaign inside Israeli towns.
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