Has the military surge finally borne political fruit?

An intelligence report suggests Syria may have been involved in Mughniyeh's death in order to use it as a provocation for taking control of Lebanon, thwarting the Hariri investigation and getting rid of Walid Jumblatt as Assad did his father. (See 1 below.)

The military surge in Iraq seems to have born some political fruit finally. But this Los Angeles Times Editorial also concludes we must leave Iraq as if that is not our ultimate goal. Is it possible, the invasion of Iraq, mis-handled and mis-conceived as it might have been, will produce desired results - a free Iraq capable of being a buffer zone against Iran? (See 2 below.)

More commentary regrading the surge and the ultimate goal of defeating radical Islamism. Saul Singer acknowledges Bloom's message in his: "The Closing of The American Mind" and argues we must realize our strengths and act boldly .(See 3 below.)

As the deadlock over N Korea's nuclear program and discussion to dis-arm continues, our government seems willing to release information about N Korea's involvement in Syria. (See 4 below.)

The more things change the more they stay the same and the worse the reporting. ( See Barry Rubin's observations about the Middle East in 5 below.)

Livni defends why talks should continue in the face of ongoing terrorist attacks. (See 6 below.)

Dick

1) Damascus Seizes on Mughniyeh Killing for Lebanon Comeback

Syria is not waiting for its official investigation to wind up and expose the party responsible for killing Hizballah commander and Tehran’s terror tactician in Damascus on Feb. 13 - any more than Hizballah, when its leaders accuse Israel. Tehran, Syria and Hizballah have all threatened revenge against Israel within or outside its borders.

However, Bashar Assad’s strategists are not losing a moment to cash in on the abundant conspiracy theories surrounding the death, to plant one of its own: Mughniyeh, they say, was killed in their capital by their Lebanese enemies.

Therefore, it is feared in Washington and Jerusalem that, while plotting revenge on Israel, Hizballah, backed by the Syrian commando units, will launch attacks on Lebanese national intelligence and Druze targets in Beirut and Mt. Lebanon – they point a finger at Druze leader Walid Jumblatt. Their immediate goal would be to overthrow the pro-Western, anti-Syrian government headed by Fouad Siniora and stir up a new civil war. The door would then re-open for Syria to make a comeback to the troubled country and move troops in for the first time since they were thrown out in 2005, in contravention of UN Security Council resolutions.

Syria’s machinations give substance to Director of US National Intelligence Mike McConnell’s assertion to Fox TV Sunday, Feb. 17, that, while Hizballah is blaming Israel, “…there's some evidence that it may have been internal Hezbollah. It may have been Syria. We don't know yet, and we're trying to sort that out.”

“It is a serious threat, and it's primarily against Israel,” said the US intelligence director. “But …let me just mention about Mughniyeh… (He was) responsible for more deaths of Americans and Israelis than any other terrorist with the exception of Osama bin Laden. So this man over time had lots of enemies. Remember, he's a Shia, and oftentimes his targets could be Sunni as well as against Israel.”

Last week, the FBI placed counter-terror squads on alert in the US against attacks on synagogues and other potential Jewish targets. In July 2007, McConnell referred to Hezbollah sleeper cells in the United States waiting for orders to spring into action. Our sources report they are part of the trans-continental network which Mughniyeh himself established on behalf of Hizballah and Tehran.

Meanwhile, in Beirut, Middle East sources report sporadic clashes already erupting in Beirut in the last few days between pro-government and pro-Hizballah adherents.

Sunday, Feb. 17, unidentified gunmen shot up a Lebanese army unit near the Sabra district in south Beirut, killing one person and injuring others. Barricades and manned positions have gone up ominously in the Lebanese capital and no-go zones set up between flashpoint districts.

Syrian sources promise the results of their finished inquiry will cause an earthquake in the Arab world and Middle East when they are published Saturday, Feb. 22.

Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah has scheduled another of his broadcast speeches for the same day - this one to mark the anniversary of his predecessor Abbas Musawi’s death in 1992, which was also attributed to Israel.

The two events are feared by US and Israeli officials to have been coordinated on the same day to flash the signal for the Syrian-Hizballah plan to start unfolding.

This is the case Syria has begun putting together to incriminate its Lebanese enemies:

1. A large Mossad spy-cum-terror ring was allegedly uncovered in Damascus and Beirut. Its mission was to keep tabs on Syrian commanders, Hizballah heads and Palestinian leaders before liquidating them.

2. The ring comprised Lebanese members as well as collaborators from a key Arab intelligence body, possibly Saudi or Jordanian.

Sources report Damascus, increasingly isolated in the mainstream Arab world over Lebanon and its ties with Tehran, has no qualms about confronting Saudi Arabia and Jordan and accusing their intelligence agencies of being in league with Israel to destroy the “Arab resistance movement.”

Saudi Arabia has indicated that its chair will be empty at the forthcoming Arab League summit in Damascus at the end of March.

3. Syria claims to have found evidence that two Lebanese intelligence agencies are involved in the Mossad ring.

One is the research branch of the Lebanese General Security Service, whose director, Capt. Wissam Eid, was murdered in a car bomb attack in Beirut on Jan. 25. Capt. Eid was deeply involved in gathering evidence for the Hariri assassination case and uncovering The Syrian leadership’s criminal involvement.

Our intelligence sources note that success by a Syrian undercover team in immobilizing this service would not only deprive the Fouad government of its primary security shield, but also bring the investigation into the three-year old assassination of the former Lebanese prime minister to a halt – just when the international tribunal is preparing to start work in the Netherlands.

The second clandestine Lebanese agency which Syria stigmatizes as part of the Mossad network is the Druze leader Walid Jumblatt’s private intelligence service.

Syria claims to have exposed the personal involvement of its director, Hisham Nasser e-Din. This charge would justify the targeting of the Druze leader and his domain on Mt. Lebanon. Jumblatt, whose father was assassinated on orders of Bashar Assad’s father, is marked as the Syrian president’s most implacable Lebanese foe.

4. The Syrian investigators are seeking to prove that Mughniyeh was killed while walking on foot from the house where he was staying in Damascus to the Mitsubishi SUV and that the vehicle was in fact rigged as a bomb car which detonated on his approach. They further claim that more explosive devices were planted along his path in case the first one missed its mark.

This is important to support the Syrian case, because they claim to have tracked down the vehicle’s Lebanese owner and fixed the time when he entered Syria.

5. They say the explosive was laced with 3,000 steel nails, which killed the targeted Hizballah commander and pockmarked surrounding buildings.

2) Political surge in Iraq

For the first time, there's a glimmer of hope we can fix what we've broken. But leave we must.


It has taken nine bloody and difficult months, but the deployment of 30,000 additional U.S. troops appears at last to have brought not just a lull in the sectarian fighting in Iraq, but the first tangible steps toward genuine political reconciliation.

Last week, the parliament passed a crucial package of legislation that reflects real compromise among the many factions on three of the thorniest issues that have bedeviled Iraq. First, a law requires that provincial elections be held by Oct. 1, and requires that a law spelling out the details on conducting the election be passed within 90 days.

This is essential because there hasn't been legitimate, elected local leadership in much of Iraq since Sunnis boycotted the 2005 local elections. Free elections of leaders who would be accountable to their populations would make it possible for the U.S. to hand over power in many Sunni areas and draw down.

Second, an amnesty law will allow the release of thousands of prisoners, most of whom are Sunnis and many of whom have been held for months in hideously overcrowded jails. The amnesty was a key condition for the Iraq Accord Front, a Sunni party, to return to the government of Prime Minister Nouri Maliki, which it quit last summer. Maliki reportedly hopes to form a new Cabinet soon.

The package also included a national budget, finally passed on the seventh try. It gives 17% of national revenues to Kurdistan -- more than the Sunnis wanted, but a first try at the kind of painful compromise that will be essential in keeping Iraq from more violent Balkanization.

Ironically, all this good news might make it harder to get American military personnel out of the country. The better things go in Iraq, the less likely it is that U.S. generals (or politicians) will want to risk jeopardizing their hard-won gains by drawing down. Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates has agreed to a request by Gen. David H. Petraeus to return to the pre-surge level of about 130,000 troops by August, and then allow a "strategic pause" to evaluate whether more can come home.

Battlefield commanders know best how many troops are needed to keep the country stable, but as a political and economic matter, U.S. forces must leave Iraq eventually -- sooner, if voters choose a Democratic president, much later if the president-elect is Republican John McCain. Either way, the United States needs a logical, orderly exit strategy that minimizes the risk that civil war will resume when our troops leave.

If the momentum of Iraq's political surge is sustained, it's conceivable that the United States, having torn the country apart in an ill-conceived invasion and a disastrous occupation, could help glue the biggest pieces together on its way out the door. But building a decent government will probably prove even harder than curbing the violence. And even under the rosiest scenario, it will be our moral duty to provide large-scale political, military and humanitarian aid, including support for the refugees who are beginning to trickle back home, for many years to come.

3) The Islamist Bubble
by Saul Singer

Here's a word that ought to be reintroduced into our vocabulary:
winning.

To his credit, John McCain, in his speech to a conservative convention, used the "w" word. "I intend to win the war," he said, speaking of Iraq.

But Iraq is not the only war that needs to be won. Or more precisely, it is only part of the war. And the whole war is eminently winnable.

There is a feeling in the air that if we are in a war at all, it is an unwinnable one, or one that will be with us for generations. In attempting to rally Americans, President George Bush has understandably urged perseverance and promised ultimate
victory, but the net result has been to reinforce a sense of endless conflict and stalemate.

In the back of our minds, we assume that the West will eventually be victorious against militant Islamism, just as we were against Soviet communism and Nazi fascism. But those victories are not exactly ideal models.

European and Japanese fascism were defeated, but only in a war in which 55 million died or were murdered (including the Holocaust), and the US was compelled to use nuclear weapons. The Soviet Union eventually collapsed, but only after half a
century of direct or proxy wars in Afghanistan, Angola, Nicaragua and elsewhere and central European suffering behind the Iron Curtain. Under Joseph Stalin alone, 20 million people died of starvation and in purges.

Our job is not just to win, but to prevent the tolls of human life and freedom inflicted by these other totalitarian ideologies. This means beating Islamofascism before it becomes stronger and before a true world war is left as the only option.

The first step to doing this is to realize that democracies often overestimate both their own weakness and their enemy's strength.

The classic example of this was the resonance of the surprise bestseller The Closing of the American Mind by Allan Bloom. The book, which burst onto the scene in 1987, portrayed American academia as hopelessly polluted by moral relativism.

"If Bloom is right, America's founding principles, taken from Hobbes and Locke, may be compared to AIDS," Tom West wrote of the book. "The body whose immune defenses are breaking down may appear healthy for many years before it becomes obviously sick. Thus, although in Bloom's view our founding principles were atheistic and relativistic at bottom, the body politic continued to look healthy for about 180 years before the disease began to manifest itself openly."

This message spoke to conservatives, who wondered how such a morally weakened society could prevail against the Soviet regime which seemed able to ruthlessly concentrate on amassing power. Only two years later, however, the Berlin
Wall fell and the Soviet Union imploded into a tremendous heap.

The collapse of the Evil Empire left behind a huge mess, but ideologically it was almost as if this supposedly formidable foe had never existed.

At times, President George Bush has suggested the possibility of such an Islamist collapse. Speaking of Iraq in June 2004, soon after Saddam Hussein was found hiding in a foxhole, Bush said: "As the entire region sees the promise of freedom
in its midst, the terrorist ideology will become more and more irrelevant, until that day when it is viewed with contempt or ignored altogether."

Almost four years later, this statement invites ridicule. But Bush wasn't wrong; he had just left out part of the equation.

Freedom has not been consolidated in Iraq, let alone spread in the region. The reason for this is not that freedom and democracy lack the potential for displacing Islamism, but that the former cannot spread when the Islamists are allowed
to sow terror and intimidation with impunity.

Among other tactical changes, the "surge" in Iraq has been successful partly because US forces have suppressed and captured Iranian agents and their allies. Iran itself, however, has barely been touched, aside from weak economic sanctions.

The war in Iraq, the struggle against Syria and Hizbullah in Lebanon, and the Arab-Israel conflict are all now battlefields within the wider war against militant Islamism. The Islamist front is based in Teheran, which fights on all these battlefields by supporting proxy forces such as Hamas, Hizbullah and
al-Qaida.

It is glaringly obvious that the only way to win the wider war is to defeat the Iranian regime, just as the Soviet regime had to be defeated to end the Cold War, and the fascist regimes had to be defeated to end World War II.

This is not as tall an order as it is made out to be. The Iranian regime is vulnerable. The people can't stand the regime, both because they are sick of being ruled by a corrupt theocracy (much as Russians had become sick of Communism), and
because it has mismanaged the economy so badly that there are rolling electricity blackouts in the depths of winter despite $100-a-barrel oil. Iran accounts for only 1 percent of Europe's global trade, while 40 percent of Iran's trade is with
Europe. So if Europe cuts off this trade, much of it supported by government subsidies, it will have a negligible impact on Europe's economy while profoundly worsening the Iranian regime's already precarious situation.

Combine this with a cut in diplomatic relations and tightened UN sanctions, and there is every reason to believe Iran could be forced to back down without firing a shot.

Militant Islamism is a bubble that can still be burst. It is much weaker than it seems. But this will not be true for long if Iran's mullahs are allowed to go nuclear. The time to win this war is now, before winning becomes much more costly.

The West must not follow the World War II model, when we failed to stop the Nazis while they were weak in the 1930s, or the Cold War model, when for decades we were satisfied with "containment" and "deterrence," before Ronald Reagan
started talking about consigning Soviet communism to the "ash heap of history."

The sooner we start believing in our own strengths and opening our eyes to the other side's weaknesses, the sooner we can win again, and at the lowest possible price.

4) Report: U.S. evidence shows N. Korea gave Syria nuclear aid


The United States has evidence showing that North Korea helped Syria build an underground nuclear reactor, a South Korean news report said Monday.

"The U.S. government has circumstantial [evidence] that the North provided technology assistance to build an underground reactor in Syria," South Korea's Hankook Ilbo newspaper reported, citing an unidentified diplomatic channel.

U.S. Embassy officials in Seoul were not immediately available for comment on the report.

North Korea has repeatedly dismissed its alleged nuclear connection with
Syria, saying that it had already pledged it would never transfer any nuclear material or technology out of the country.

Monday's report came as the international process aimed at stripping North Korea of its nuclear weapons programs was at a deadlock over Pyongyang's refusal to give a complete list of its nuclear programs as required by a landmark agreement.

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill arrived in Beijing earlier Monday for talks with Chinese officials on how to jump-start the stalled disarmament deal with North Korea.

The U.S. nuclear envoy was scheduled to visit Seoul and Tokyo this week for similar consultations.

The Israel Air Force last September bombed a facility Syrians claim serves as an "agricultural research center," but Israel believes is used to extract uranium from phosphates.

Syria has categorically denied circulating media reports that claimed the September 6 targeted a nuclear project being undertaken with the cooperation of North Korea.

The Washington Post had quoted an American Middle East expert as saying that the alleged IAF strike in northern Syria was directly connected to a shipment Syria received from North Korea three days earlier.

"There are no nuclear North Korean-Syrian facilities whatsoever in Syria," Syria's ambassador to the U.S., Imad Moustapha, said after the reports were released in September.

5) The Region: So many problems, so few solutions
By BARRY RUBIN

The Middle East is a region where so many things seem to happen, so little appears to change, and far too much is said about it all.

Partly this is due to the area's turbulence; partly to obsessive hyper-reporting in an era when everyone claims to be a Middle East expert and the most basic exercise of logic is often absent. Yet at the same time, silly ideas and policies often also correspond to real needs. Here's a list of examples:

• Israel-Palestinian talks and the "peace process" occupy the attention of world leaders and media when they go, and will go, absolutely nowhere.

• Lebanese politics are deadlocked over the election of a new president because Syria, Hizbullah and Iran demand control over that country's government and will paralyze the balloting until they get it.

• Endless speeches, investigations, proposals and conferences discuss Iran's drive toward nuclear weapons, yet do between little and nothing about it.

• Billions of dollars go to the Palestinian Authority supposedly to help it raise Palestinian living standards and build a stable polity, when this entity makes not the tiniest step toward reform and fighting corruption, much less battling terrorism.

Mechanisms for change do exist. The problem is that, like the above items, they usually don't function.

FOR EXAMPLE, in March there will be elections in Iran. These are conducted along the lines once declared by Cuban dictator Fidel Castro: Within the revolution, everything; outside it nothing. Most reformist candidates are disqualified from competing. Still, there is an element of pluralism since the ruling elite itself is so fractionalized.

An election could shift more power away from the ultra-extremist president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, making Iran marginally less dangerous. But it cannot turn Teheran toward a new course in which it would give up its regional ambitions, sponsorship of terrorism or drive toward nuclear weapons. The most important component, international pressure, is far weaker than it should be.

In the Palestinian case, the internal factors for positive change are even more limited.

Fatah has talked about having a party congress in March, which might or might not happen. The existing PA leadership lacks either the power or interest to clamp down on incitement to terrorism or an anti-corruption drive. The wider Fatah leadership actually embraces extremism and looting. Neither seems inclined to share power with a "young guard" leadership which might be more honest but is also, if anything, more radical.

Not much hope can be expected there.

The most important component, international pressure, is far weaker than it should be.

As for Hamas, while factions seem to exist, there are no moderates in sight. Outside observers are determined to credit Hamas with a victory in the Gaza Strip. Yet it is typical of most such radical "triumphs," not gained by themselves but given by those who should be their adversaries.

IN FACT, the Egyptian border is again closed, with the Cairo government more determined (if still not determined enough) to control its own territory. Hamas's policy is merely running Gaza into the ground a bit more slowly.

Still, the most important component, international pressure, is far weaker than it should be.

Regarding Lebanon, a key ingredient of any solution is to frighten the Syrian government by moving ahead on the international tribunal investigating Damascus's involvement in murders there of peaceful politicians and journalists. With little publicity, this effort is advancing slowly, yet is largely overshadowed publicly by outspoken testimonies from too many naïve Westerners about how moderate the Syrian dictatorship claims to be.

In one memorable case, two US members of Congress went to Damascus, publicly bragged of how Syrian President Bashar Assad promised them he would release liberal dissidents, then remained silent as he jailed even more such people. Syria has good reasons to believe that the next US president will reverse course and appease - I mean, engage - the regime.

The most important component, international pressure, is far weaker than it should be.

ONE OF the biggest developments is the assassination of Imad Mughniyeh, arguably the most single important international terrorist outside al-Qaida, in Damascus. Amid all the coverage and analysis, it should be remembered that Mughniyeh's personal importance was that he linked together Hizbullah, Iran, Syria and Fatah. He also embodied the nexus between anti-Israel and anti-American terrorism.

Particularly amusing was Syria's explanation for his presence there. According to the state-controlled al-Thawra, February 14, Mughniyeh had snuck into the country unbeknownst to the omnipresent dictatorship. No doubt this also applies to the Iraqi insurgent and Lebanese Fatah al-Islam terrorists who operate there. (The regime is more openly proud of its sponsoring of Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hizbullah.)

Still, the Syrian government does not seem worried by all these people getting in and out so easily, the article concluding, "There is nothing in that area warranting [special] precautions and vigilance."

In the Middle East, there are all too many things warranting precautions and vigilance - but only of the right type.

6) Livni: Halting negotiations will serve Hamas

Responding to criticism by opposition factions over government's decision to hold talks with Palestinians despite rocket fire on south, foreign minister says, 'It is our duty to create a better future for the children of Sderot and the children of Israel'


Halting ongoing peace negotiations with the Palestinians will simply play into Hamas' hands, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni said Monday during a no-confidence discussion at the Knesset.


Coalition Threats
Shas says will quit coalition if peace talks continue amid Qassam fire / Neta Sela
Chairman Eli Yishai says haredi party will resign from Olmert's coalition if negotiations with Palestinians carried out while rocket fire from Gaza continues. Netanyahu to Shas: Do the right thing
Full Story

The no-confidence motion was submitted by Yisrael Beiteinu, following the government's decision to continue talks with the PA despite the rocket attacks on Israel.



According to Livni, "the negotiations are intended to set and preserve Israel's principles, which are being eroded with the passage of time."



"If there are no talks, will terror stop?" Livni rhetorically asked the Knesset plenum. "If negotiations are halted, this will leave the playing field entirely in Hamas' hands," she added.



"I don’t walk into the negotiating room like a Santa Claus bearing gifts for the Palestinians. I represent Israel's interests," Livni stressed.



"We need to give hope to the children of Sderot. Halting the negotiations would cost us our future. The talks are not a perk to the Palestinians or a gift to the Americans," the foreign minister added.



After her speech, Livni told Ynet that "we have a duty to defend Sderot, but we also have a duty to take care of the future of Sderot's children." Negotiations would continue, she said, "in order to create a better future for Israel."



Earlier Monday, Ministry of Foreign Affairs Director-General, Aaron Abramovich, criticized statements made by Sir John Holmes, UN undersecretary- general for humanitarian affairs, in which the latter described the situation in Sderot as part of a “continuing cycle of violence between Israelis and Palestinians.”




Following a Monday meeting with Holmes, Abramovich noted that these type of statements “create a moral equivalency between terrorists and those impacted by terror,” and serve to encourage and embolden terrorist factions.