Not a happy camper. I don't own a cell phone so, when I get out of the shower, I will dry myself with an illusive towel so I don't catch pneumonia. me
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Dov Fischer and I link in many ways and yet are also at the other end of the spectrum in terms of experiences.He is Jewish as am I but he is Orthodox and I am Conservative and rarely attend services. He is devout in his belief there is a deity and I am agnostic but strongly believe a healthy society must embrace the concept of a higher authority beyond "mankind" He lost a daughter to a Palestinian assassin while she was visiting Israel, I hope those I cherish never have such an experience. He was a Rabbi who then pursued a legal practice, became successful and retired so he could freely express himself. I always felt free to express myself and that probably prolonged the period I had to work. Dov is far more articulate in writing and expressing himself than I could ever hope to be. We are both politically conservative, rely upon common sense to dictate our thoughts and thus, seem to agree on most all topics to date.
One thing should be evident. We both love writing, Dov being far more learned but maybe not in terms of the stock market.
In this memo, I discuss energy and utility stocks and the price of energy. Those more expert suggest the price of energy should rise from current levels to as high as 200/BBL.
I have mentioned, several times, I exposed myself to energy stocks shortly after they they peaked and this caused my performance several years of pain. In the last year and a half my performance has been enhanced by owning energy stocks. When I began buying energy stocks they were around 20% of the S&P Index, bottomed around 5% and between the decline in technology and the rise in energy stocks the latter now must represent about 7% or slightly more of the S&P Index. I could find out but am too lazy to look..
So what is their future? There are so many pro's and con's but I will highlight the major ones and the connection to the utility sector. Six words/phrases immediately jump out: interest rates, recession, supply and demand, cost of capital, political stupidity and EV's.
If interest rates continue upward, as I suspect they will, it impacts just about everything from earning projections, to improved supply and cost of capital and a potential recession. In isolation this should put pressure on oil stock prices, possibly cause demand to decline as a recession becomes more likely. Perhaps one has already begun.
In this case the Fed which was late in responding could be equally late in overstaying.
Recession: Obviously this impacts employment and would reduce a certain % of demand. In a period when demand outstrips supply, stock price might not fall as much but it will impact earnings and also might deter efforts to increase supply because previous rises in interest rates would increase the cost of capital and reduced earnings reduces free cash flow.
Supply and demand: Supply is not likely to increase a great deal because of the previous two words above and demand is likely to shrink modestly so the pressure on pricing should remain but may be by a slightly lower degree. Two black swan events could alter everything and that is the Ukraine War and a possible confrontation between Israel and Iran.
As Europe returns to using coal and nuclear it is possible China will not be able to absorb all the excessive energy resources available from Russia so a bit more pressure may emerge on pricing.
Cost of capital: Interest rate rises cause the cost of capital to rise . A recession might lower demand and make capital more available. An offset is that many energy companies, Chevron for example, have begun serious expenditures for alternate energy, siphoning off capital for oil and gas production.
Political Stupidity: We have enormous unexplored oil and gas but a mixture of stupidity and timidity have forced Biden to flee.
If Republicans win overwhelmingly in House elections and actually retake The Senate, even though they may not have the votes to override a Biden veto, they might be able to force his hand. A long shot but a possibility. If we are in a deep recession there still would be diminished demand but no compelling reason to lower prices further by increasing supply. American companies are reluctant to cut their financial throats. Furthermore, Biden likes to offload on Corporate America so that does not endear their executives to help bail him out of the misery his stupidity /incompetence has caused.
EV's: This is the most interesting and illusive word. The price of EV's is substantially above the price at which most buyers can afford to purchase, ie. $35,000. Second, with inflation hitting them just for essentials that impedes their ability to buy EV's and even if they are less costly to operate for a variety of factors this reduced operational and repair cost is recaptured over years not weeks.
Then we come to lithium battery constraints and here you have fire risks, excessive time to recharge, lack of distance/charge, cost of battery replacement. All of these are deterrents but could be solved by benefits rumored to be associated with the "Forever Battery."
A substantial rise in EV purchases would reduce the use of refined oil but the demand on utility companies would offset a great deal of the demand for oil.
Specific to utility stocks, they are defensive for several reasons during a market under downward pressure. First, energy demand and earnings are fairly stable, dividends are historically supportive and tend to inch upward and should increase profits from EV sales and thus, earnings be placed in their rate base calculations their earnings could explode. This perhaps, is why utility stocks have been going counter to stocks in general.
Conclusion: There are more positive pressures for oil prices to rise and thus, the stocks continue to have a relatively bright future. I have yet to mention oil boards are prone to be generous to stockholders to make up for prior years of misery and dividend cuts. Thus, they are repurchasing stock with excess free cash ,while concurrently raising dividends from, already, competitive levels.
Devon Energy (DVN) is a good example. On top of a small fixed dividend they have added and begun paying a monster addition.
Buffett recently loaded up on Chevron and those I speak with and/or read what they write continue to be positive on the sector.
Addendum: Pipeline stocks should do well if Republicans win in the mid-term as psychology should improve. Oil exploration companies like Schlumberger and Halliburton etc. should do better and have been. Capital expenditures for repair and maintenance has suffered and must be made up even without more demand. Stocks in this sector are at historically low levels but dividends are nothing to write home about.
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I have been waiting decades for some such news. The world is endowed with coal but the pollution issue has restrained usage. Coal has improved in terms of scrubbing etc. but now, if this is true, could be the breakthrough I and others have waited for. Hundred's of coal utility plants have been shuttered though China and India continue to build more.
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1. An MIT spinout aims to use X-rays to melt rock and repurpose coal and gas plants into deep geothermal wells - effectively transforming dirty fossil-fuel plants into clean ones. The brain behind the concept is a research engineer in MIT's Plasma Science and Fusion Center, Paul Woskov. The engineer has spent the last 14 years developing a method that may bring an abandoned coal power plant back online, entirely carbon-free, within a decade. And his method, which is being commercialized by a company named Quaise Energy, could work on nearly every coal and gas power plant on our planet, according to a press release. Ultimately, the company intends to up the ante by vaporizing enough rock to create the world's deepest holes and capture geothermal energy on a scale large enough to meet human energy needs for millions of years. Imagine that. (Sources: news.mit.edu, interestingengineering.com, quaise.energy)
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Why not tear up Abe's Gettysburgh Address as well?
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The wrong people are asking the Wimps at this excuse for a college, about taking out the Lincoln Bust AND the Gettysburg Address --an original copy. It should be the parents who want to know why their spending thousands to send their kids to a college run by idiots -- and the Alumni who should be changing their wills to take out any money they were sending to this excuse for a "institute of higher education"!
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BIBI has a chance of re-election in what will remain a fractious Knesseth. No way to govern when the stakes are so high.
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Knesset dissolves, election date final
Election called for Nov. 1, Yair Lapid to become acting prime minister at the stroke of midnight.
Israel's Knesset dissolved itself on Thursday morning, paving the way for elections later this year.
The elections are expected to be held on November 1.
In the meantime, MK Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid), who until now has served as Foreign Minister and as Alternate Prime Minister, will take on the role of acting Prime Minister, starting at midnight on Thursday.
Immediately after the Knesset dissolved, Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett stood up and switched seats with Lapid. Bennett is expected to stay on as Alternate Prime Minister, so as to smooth the transition. Bennett announced Wednesday that he will not run in the upcoming elections.
A small ceremony will be held Thursday in the Prime Minister's Office. Media will not be present.
On Wednesday afternoon, the bill to dissolve the Knesset passed its first reading, paving the way for its second and third readings. However, issues soon arose, namely, that United Torah Judaism's MK Moshe Gafni submitted a lengthy list of objections to various parts of the law, and the Joint Arab List submitted a total of 12,000 objections, each of which would have to be discussed before the bill could go for its second and third votes.
The Arab party's goal, rather than changing parts of the bill, was to delay the vote so as to allow the Judea and Samaria regulations, which had not been extended, to expire. Later on Wednesday afternoon, it was announced that the Joint Arab List's objections had been disqualified.
On Thursday morning, the bill passed its third reading, with 92 voting in favor and 0 voting against the dissolution. The Labor party walked out of the vote, in protest of a different bill failing.
The Judea and Samaria regulations will now be automatically extended for another six months.
Poll: Netanyahu bloc achieves Knesset majority with Shaked's Yamina
New survey finds Yamina under Shaked would win 5 seats, which would give the Netanyahu bloc 63 seats if she joins it.
Ayelet Shaked
A new poll published by the Midgam institute for Channel 12 News Wednesday evening shows that if elections were held today, Opposition Leader Benjamin Netanyahu would win the election to become prime minister again if the Yamina party under the leadership of Ayelet Shaked joined him.
According to the poll, the Yamina party under Shaked would win five seats. The Likud would be the largest party with 34 seats, while the Yesh Atid party would place second with 20 seats. The Blue and White party would win nine seats, as would the Religious Zionism party.
The Shas party would receive eight seats, while the United Torah Judaism party would win seven seats. The Joint Arab List would win six seats.
The Labor and Yisrael Beytenu parties would receive five seats each, while the Meretz, Ra'am, and New Hope parties would receive four seats each.
The poll takes on a new relevance following Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's announcement that he would not run in the upcoming elections, leaving Ayelet Shaked as the leader of the Yamina party.
Shaked is believed to be more open to sitting in a coaltiion led by Netanyahu than fellow Yamina Minister Matan Kahana, who may choose to run with another party such as the New Hope party instead.
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It can be done. Our ship of state can be righted. beginning with this 4th of July.:
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Dear Richard
The American economy is among the most powerful forces for good in the history of humankind. The nation’s economic engine has driven living standards to heights unimaginable at the nation’s founding almost 250 years ago.
But America has been experiencing trends that are undermining freedom, diminishing the role of the individual at the core of society, and distorting the authority of political institutions.
The COVID-19 lockdown further exacerbated existing trends and undermined the American ethos. With each major shock, the constitutional, civic, and economic guardrails that have long benefited the country are being tested.
In their latest volume, Reinvigorating Economic Governance, Hoover Institution fellows John Cogan and Kevin Warsh explain—with reason and vigor—the way out of this hole we’ve dug for ourselves.
The title of this treatise belies its broad application. While it is addressing economic governance, this is a clear-eyed case for the return to America’s foundational principle of natural liberty.
I strongly encourage you to follow this link, download, and read this eBook: https://resources.hoover.org/reinvigorating-economic-governance/.
The authors propose that individuals, ideas, and institutions are the sine qua non of American prosperity. They outline the vital importance of, and point the way back to:
A renewed focus on liberating the individual
Encouraging the spread of new ideas
Ensuring institutions remain true to their intended purpose
This eBook is a breath of fresh air. It shows us how America can return to a country marked by abundance, governed by values of hard work and decency, and secure from foreign adversaries.
If you find it beneficial, please consider forwarding this to a friend or family member who needs their hope restored in the promise of America’s founding ideals.
You can get your copy here.
Thank you,
Greg
Greg Stamps | Online Development
Hoover Institution | Stanford University
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Does Soros always get his wish? What does he use to wipe he blood off hish ands when he has breakfast?
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Soros Prosecutor Freed Violent Offender Now Charged With Killing Homeless Woman
Josh Christenson
George Soros (L) and Chante Antonio Jones (R) / Getty Images and Fairfax County Police Department
A George Soros-backed prosecutor in Virginia released on probation a violent repeat offender who went on to kill an elderly homeless woman—the third case of its kind in the jurisdiction this year.
Fairfax County commonwealth's attorney Steve Descano (D.) in October charged Chante Antonio Jones with assault and battery before releasing him on recognizance, slapping him with just a $212 fine and one-year period of supervised probation. Police on Monday arrested Jones for beating 63-year-old Michelle Huntley to death at a bus stop where she had taken shelter.
The brutal killing last week is just the latest instance in which bail reform and lightened sentencing by so-called criminal justice reform prosecutors have brought deadly consequences. The Washington Free Beacon reported that Descano's office dropped felony charges against a man who was later charged with killing two homeless men in Washington, D.C., and New York City in March. Two months before, another gunman, whom Descano had pleaded out on misdemeanors in 2020, killed an 18-year-old at a bus stop.
"An innocent Virginian lost their life because of the criminal-first, victim-last mentality pushed by far-left prosecutors," Virginia attorney general Jason Miyares (R.) told the Free Beacon. "Continually giving repeat offenders light sentences and allowing them to quickly get back onto the street only encourages more crime and creates more victims."
Jones, who is also known as Siddiq Khashi Salam, is a repeat offender with more than a dozen charges in Fairfax County in the past three years, including larceny, public intoxication, and indecent exposure. Huntley, who was affectionately called "Mama" by residents, according to ABC 7, was found around midnight on June 17 with evidence of trauma to her upper body. First responders rushed her to the hospital, where she succumbed to her injuries days later. Police records show Jones's assault-and-battery charges stemmed from punching someone in the face months before on a block close to the Huntley killing.
Descano's office did not respond to a request for comment. Jones has been charged with aggravated malicious wounding for Huntley's death (a class-two felony carrying a minimum 20-year sentence), pending a medical examiner's report.
Through his Justice and Public Safety PAC, Soros dropped more than half-a-million dollars in 2019 to help elect Descano, along with other left-wing Virginia commonwealth's attorneys like Loudoun County's Buta Biberaj and Arlington County's Parisa Dehghani-Tafti. Each pushed out veteran prosecutors who had served decades in their counties, promising in their campaigns to reduce incarceration and oppose many felony convictions.
Homicides in Fairfax County are set to outpace their 2021 levels, with 12 so far compared with 10 by this point the year before. The rate last year jumped 40 percent from 2020. A full annual police report, however, has not been released by the county in 2022.
Descano's approach to criminal justice, which has enabled repeat offenders, is now fueling recall efforts in Northern Virginia.
"This abhorrent crime was totally preventable," Sean Kennedy, who is running one of the recall efforts, told the Free Beacon. "Virginians for Safe Communities is dedicated to seeing justice done and removing Steve Descano from office for violating his oath to uphold justice and protect the public. … Like Chesa Boudin in San Francisco, Steve Descano poses a clear and present danger to public safety in Fairfax County."
The recall effort has amassed more than half of the roughly required 30,000 signatures to trigger a special election to remove Descano from office, according to Kennedy.
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Putting voters to sleep with "wokeness." These Democrats need hearing aids so they can hear their own stupidity
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Democrats cater to the woke at their electoral peril
Douglas Schoen and Andrew Stein
Progressives like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and the "Squad" are leading Democrats to a disaster in the fall midterm elections.Progressives like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and the "Squad" are leading Democrats to a disaster in the fall midterm elections. Photo by Nathan Howard/Getty Images
The Democratic Party’s embrace of socialist-leaning politicians — namely “The Squad” — has not only put it on track to lose control of Congress in November. It’s at risk of becoming a marginal party that only appeals to the far left in years to come.
Ezra Klein last year aptly urged Democrats to recognize that most voters “are not liberals, are not woke, and do not see the world in the way that the people who staff and donate to Democratic campaigns do” after he interviewed prescient political analyst David Shor.
National Democrats’ failure to heed this lesson during Joe Biden’s presidency — along with their unwillingness to discredit the far-left economic, social and cultural positions The Squad and others promote — is a drag on the party’s short- and long-term political prospects.
Indeed, The Squad’s core policy positions are wildly out of touch with the broader electorate’s priorities — and with the country’s present needs — which bodes poorly for Democrats’ chances of retaining their congressional majorities in November’s midterm elections.
Amid record-high inflation, fears of a recession, soaring gas prices, rising crime and an immigration crisis, Americans want leaders who support fiscal prudence, enhancing US energy independence, responsible law enforcement and strengthening immigration laws.
Yet The Squad continues to advocate redistributive economic policies that stifle growth, drive up the price of everyday goods and ultimately increase inflation. Their $6 trillion “Green New Deal” calls for massive taxation and spending, forcing the transition away from fossil fuels, dismantling police departments and implementing open-border policies — positions that are not only politically damaging to Democrats but also imprudent, given the challenges facing the country.
The Squad’s criminal-justice and law-enforcement policies are especially damaging — specifically, their support for eliminating cash bail, reducing law-enforcement budgets and not charging perpetrators of nonviolent misdemeanors even if repeat offenders, who are frequently career criminals who go on to commit more serious and often violent crimes.
Notably, in several primary and special elections this year, voters across the country — even in the most liberal cities — decisively rejected these sorts of policies.
The recall of San Francisco’s progressive district attorney, Chesa Boudin, marked the strongest rebuke of far-left crime and policing policies to date, underscoring the political threat Democrats face by being associated with “Defund the police” rhetoric.
And despite Biden’s best efforts to distance the party’s establishment wing from The Squad’s unpopular policing policies as crime rates rise across the country, it’s clear this association will haunt Democrats through November.
Besides rejecting progressive policing policies, American voters have consistently repudiated The Squad’s broader approach to politics, which relies on class-based political warfare, identity politics and disruption for disruption’s sake.
Earlier this year, voters recalled three left-wing San Francisco school-board members, feeling that the board was prioritizing political correctness at the expense of their children’s education. They thought the board pandered to leftist activists’ demands when it advanced a motion to rename buildings named after historical figures — such as Abraham Lincoln — instead of reopening schools.
This recall was evidence the “woke” politics the far left embraces is not only opposed by swing-voters but also by many Democratic constituents. If establishment Democrats continue to cater to this brand of politics, the party will consistently find itself out of step with most American voters and unable to build winning electoral coalitions.
Beyond politics, at a time democratic norms and values are under attack around the world and anti-Semitism is on the rise here at home, we cannot overlook the damaging effect of The Squad’s demonization of Israel and history of anti-Semitic rhetoric.
Squad members like Rep. Ilhan Omar repeatedly bash Israel.“Squad” members like Rep. Ilhan Omar repeatedly bash Israel.Lenin Nolly/ZUMA Press Wire
Democratic Squad members consistently single out Israel — the world’s only Jewish state and the only democracy in the Middle East — and label it an “apartheid state,” which is a patently false claim used as a rallying cry by extremists who seek Israel’s destruction.
In that same vein, Reps. Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib have pushed anti-Semitic conspiracies — by suggesting that Jews use their money to buy American support for Israel — and have compared America and Israel to the Taliban.
Now more than ever, Democrats need to reject these false claims and make clear that they stand with democracies around the world, from Ukraine to Israel, and against anti-Semitism.
National Democrats can no longer cater to The Squad and its brand of fringe politics while overlooking the larger political forces at play.
If the Democratic Party’s establishment wing continues to associate itself with The Squad — whose members exist on the fringes of the political spectrum and prioritize political correctness and “wokeness” over the real issues that matter to most Americans — the party will suffer electorally in 2022, 2024 and beyond.
Douglas Schoen is founder and partner in Schoen Cooperman Research, a polling and consulting firm, whose past clients include President Bill Clinton and former Mayor Michael Bloomberg. Andrew Stein is a former New York City Council president.
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I had lunch Wed.,June 29, with a dear friend and fellow memo reader. He believes, before the Ukraine War ends, Z might just repay those who have reluctantly helped him and attack Russia with the weapons provided by the West out of desperation.
Once again, for the want of a nail a nation was lost that might have been saved. Like Barbara Streisand's hit song: "Promises ,Promises" and Chamberlain, France and Germany are content to sacrifice the territory of others. With friends like that who needs enemies?
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In New Poll, 89% of Ukrainians Reject Ceding Land to Reach Peace With Russia
Ukrainians back Zelensky’s position that peace talks can’t grant Russia land it has seized, WSJ-NORC poll finds
By Aaron Zitner
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On another topic, I learned from my dear departed brilliant friend, Hank Abraham, the Political Science professor at U.Va and recognized authority on the history of SCOTUS, Chief Justice Roberts saw his role was to maintain comity among the 8 Justices. Though he might not have failed he also has not succeeded. This group will remain philosophically split and distant because they were chosen for their strong ideological beliefs/stances and would be deemed turncoats if they worked in unison for the good of the country. The same with members of Congress. Re-election takes precedence over doing what is right by the nation. This is a tragic state of affairs. Can we bring back the days of Tip and Ron?
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Did they ever think they could volunteer?
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Secret Service wasn’t contacted by Jan. 6 committee before Hutchinson testimony
by Jerry Dunleavy, Justice Department Reporter
The committee investigating the events surrounding the Capitol riot did not reach out to the Secret Service about some of the biggest allegations made by Cassidy Hutchinson about former President Donald Trump prior to her high-profile testimony on Tuesday, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.
The Washington Examiner has learned from an individual close to the Secret Service that it had not been contacted for its thoughts on the videotaped claims by the former aide to Trump chief of staff Mark Meadows before her public testimony, and a source close to the Secret Service said Tuesday was the first time the agency had heard the claims about Trump allegedly trying to grab the steering wheel in the presidential vehicle and lunging toward a Secret Service agent on Jan. 6.
Several people involved in the events of the day have reportedly disputed Hutchinson’s testimony before the House Jan. 6 committee, which is led by Democrats. Tuesday's hearing with Hutchinson was a surprise, announced just a day before. The committee previously said it would not hold any more hearings after last week's events until July.
Hutchinson claimed in the hearing that the story had been recounted to her on Jan. 6 by Anthony “Tony” Ornato, then the White House's deputy chief of staff for operations, as Robert “Bobby” Engel, then head of Trump's security detail, listened. She was not in the vehicle when the supposed altercation took place.
Anthony Guglielmi, the chief of communications for the U.S. Secret Service, told the Washington Examiner that there was “new information” alleged by Hutchinson in the hearing. Guglielmi asserted that “we are willing to make anyone in the Secret Service available to comment on the record” about the events in question, including the allegations of a physical altercation.
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More display of Biden weakness.
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Iran and the US resume indirect nuclear talks in Qatar
Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani and U.S. special envoy for Iran Robert Malley are negotiating from separate rooms in a Doha hotel. / JNS)
Indirect nuclear talks between the United States and Iran resumed Tuesday in Doha, Qatar, Iranian state media reported.
Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani and U.S. special envoy for Iran Robert Malley are negotiating from separate rooms in a Doha hotel, reported Reuters. The talks aim to revive the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran, the U.S. and other world powers.
Kani met with European Union envoy Enrique Mora, who is shuttling between the two sides. Iran refuses to hold direct talks.
One Iranian and one European official told Reuters last week that Iran had dropped the demand to remove its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) from the U.S. Foreign Terrorist Organization list. However, Iran still has two remaining demands, one involving sanctions.
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https://thefederalist.com/2022/06/29/thanks-to-leftist-corruption-u-s-military-recruiting-is-in-total-freefall/
Americans Don't Want to Serve in Biden's Woke Military
By Sarah Arnold
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