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I am typing this early Thursday (March 25th) and before Biden's press conference. For what it is worth this is my near term market thinking. March's ending is not one of the strongest market months because investors have usually enjoyed a nice year end rally and are preparing for tax time and need to raise money. Therefore, for whatever it is is worth, I believe the market is at a point where it cannot hold food down and is in for a "modest" correction. The economy is improving but there are side issues that raise the prospect of some problems. But then, as I always warn, what do I know.
Certainly the shift to value, that I thought would occur, has and I believe has further to run. I also believe growth stocks, after a further correction, will have their day in the sun again but , perhaps, not as robust. 2021 should continue to be a decent market period but a stronger correction is probably coming so that might be anticipated as we approach and/or get into 2022. We also have a mid-election year with all the cacophony and uncertainty that brings in 2022.
As for Biden's various economic plans I believe he does not appreciate the downside of what he and his handlers are doing.
1) The stimulation he has created is a double edge sword. First, it is restraining employment because many earn more sitting home playing games than working. Second, is also creates eventual demand for goods and services and that will put pressure on prices because I doubt manufacturers are able to supply the demand so that will drive up inflation and therefore, interest rates creating a market headwind of sorts. This also costs more to finance are un-sustainable debt thus, cheapening the dollar and making imported goods more expensive. This is the same as raising taxes and on the poorer citizens. Gas at $3, up from $2, is a tax!
2) All presidents are confronted by "black swan" events they cannot fully anticipate and I am not referring to mass murders, which have become random but part of everyday life in America. What I am referring to is China and Xi feeling powerful enough to want to make a statement and show the world how weak America/Biden are so I would not be surprised if they blockaded Taiwan and threw a military gauntlet down.
If not that, there could be some kind of currency blow up as Xi wants to replace the dollar with China's currency and America's debt growth is unsustainable.
3) Biden said he wanted to rule as a healer and bring about unity but Pelosi and Schumer and the Democrat Party are more interested in ensuring they have unending power and will continue to ram radical legislation down America's throat, They also intend to spend, and waste, trillions on infrastructure which could tip scales, in a negative manner, in order to buy votes ahead of the 2022 mid-term election. Finally, "Uncle Biden" has no intention of bringing about unity unless Republicans do what he wants which ain't the road to unity.
4) The mood of the nation is one of frustration and Fauci could effectively scare people with his predictions of another viral surge etc.. However, I seriously doubt he will prove to be correct. Fauci proved to be a "Johnny One Note" scientist and became overly-imbued with his own self-importance. Granted, he was faced with an event that was awesome but he overstayed his reliance upon his scientific knowledge and had little appreciation for the impact the lockdown of our economy would cost. Finally, I repeat, what do I know.
5) That said, I have raised some cash and am prepared to put it to work should a "mild reaction" occur and I continue to like stocks that have decent balance sheets, predictable earning prospects, are reasonably priced and offer a yield. Examples, in health care: Pfizer, Merck, Abbvie, Bristol- Myers. In the financial area, somewhat more speculative: Manulife, AFLAC, AIG, Apollo Investment Company and OFG Bancorp. In Consumerism: Conagra Brands, Sparton Nash Co. and Newell Brands. Energy: Suncor, Kinder Morgan and, a longer shot, Natural Resource Partners. Utilities: AT&T, Emera and Vista Energy. Finally, in technology: Cisco, IBM and Qualcomm. Outright speculations: Walgreen, Prosus NVF, Gilead Sciences and Crispr Therapeutics.
My biggest concerns are Biden's incompetence and weakness, China's aggressiveness, desire to replace America and belief now is the time to test America because of Biden and our growing internal self-doubts about whether we have the will to restore America's greatness while meeting the rising challenges.
If you find kernels of pessimism in my outlook you are correct and this is why:
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As the 2022 election comes more into focus Republicans, who are favored as potential 2024 candidates, will begin getting tarred and feathered by the Democrat character assassination machine because they believe in playing hard ball and will, with help from their mass media goons and eunuchs, take attention from and protect their own troubled politicians, ie. Pelosi, Biden, Cuomo, possibly Hunter Biden if his sordidness is allowed to resurface, etc.
Meanwhile:
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The rain was pouring down outside O'Connor's Irish Pub. There standing in front of a big puddle outside the pub was an old Irishman, drenched, holding a stick, with a piece of string dangling in the water.
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Bar Ilan Book Launch: Lone Voice |
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Naomi and I take this opportunity to wish you all chag sameach and hope you are able to enjoy Pesach with your families as we emerge from the Covid 19 pandemic. We are all processing the results of the elections. I am still hopeful that somehow we will have a fully functioning government to meet all the challenges facing Israel. But only
time will tell. In the meantime, I am delighted to share with you a link to a recording of the launch of my biography authored by
Professor Suzanne D. Rutland and hosted by Bar Ilan University last week. Link: https://youtu.be/t-J9nuQaenw ++++++++++++++++++++ The Unfit President There was another time in U.S. history when a president was incapable of serving. His name was Woodrow Wilson, and he had had a stroke, a debilitating one. He never recovered. For about 18 months, the nation was without a president. World War I was over, and the country was on the cusp of the Roaring 20s, so perhaps having a leader wasn’t as imperative. Politico remembered
Wilson’s October 1919 stroke in this October 2019 article. For a time, it was one of greatest cover-ups in the annals of the American presidency. (Many more years would pass before ratification of the 25th Amendment in 1967, which specifies the procedures to be followed in the event of a presidential disability.) Edith [Wilson, the First Lady] would regularly review pending legislation and executive documents -- becoming, according to
some historians, the de facto acting president. [Italics added] Seem familiar? It should. A little more than a century later, history is repeating itself -- sort of. President Joe Biden is functionally incapable of discharging his duties. Robotically signing executive orders doesn’t count. In 1919, the stroke that waylaid Wilson was covered up. Wilson wasn’t paraded before the public. Then, a measure of decorum was maintained in deference to citizens’ sensibilities. (Wilson rode with his successor, Warren G. Harding, to Harding’s inaugural, but didn’t stay.) Not so with Biden. The 46th president is trotted out before cameras often enough. Almost inevitably, some aspect of his meager performances proves his dysfunction. He fluffs lines, forgets, wanders off message, and, last Friday, stumbled so badly up the stairs to Air Force One that he was within an inch of serious injury. Yet, however obvious Biden’s fumbles and stumbles, his performances are gaslighted by administration flaks and the mainstream media. Nothing to see, so move on. The establishment damn well knows better, and should have the nation’s welfare at heart, but plays along. Congressional Democrats play along, while congressional Republicans (many, not all) acquiesce. Pelosi and Schumer are full conspirators. McConnell plays dumb. Kevin McCarthy is mum. Biden was a functionally incapable candidate last year, of course. Voters knew it. Kids, cats, and dogs knew it. But Democrats were unfazed. Joe was a longtime familiar face. Irascible, cheatin’, influence-peddlin’ old Joe. He was kinda centrist, kinda liberal. Voters weren’t threatened by him, so party powerbrokers settled on him from a woeful field of Democrat presidential
contenders. Biden’s decline didn’t matter. Democrats had aces up their sleeves. Why labor much to dupe Americans about Biden’s fitness? A little gaslighting was plenty. Election chicanery in five battleground states would fix the results. The fixes worked. The Biden formula hasn’t changed since his inauguration. A pinch of gaslighting, a pound of audacity, and another pound of flagrant disregard for the people’s will remains the recipe. The agenda is all that matters, and the cabal -- comprised of Democrats, leftists, and plutocrats, chiefly -- are driving it hard. They aim to cement Democrat control of politics, embed aspects of authoritarianism, and impose leftist policies on Americans. But disaster is in the making. The cabal-manufactured border crisis and its drive to end America’s energy independence are “destroying our country,” asserts our former -- and perhaps future -- president Donald J. Trump. But open borders and ending energy independence are merely opening salvos in the cabal’s go at “transforming” America. We ain’t seen nothin’ yet. H.R. 1 (institutionalizing elections fraud), backdooring the Green New Deal, trillions in profligate spending, packing SCOTUS, gun control, and statehood for D.C. are in the offing. Democrats aim to muscle through these terrible initiatives. The big question is, can the people thwart the cabal’s designs? Can America avoid an outright debacle? Can grassroots patriots, courts, red states, alternative conservative media, clashes of interests, and the general institutional drag built into the Constitution slam the brakes on Democrats’ power grab and lurch leftward? Will GOP-driven election reform in key states be enacted, thereby providing fairer playing fields for the 2022 midterm congressional elections, which are necessary to install a GOP House majority,
at least? A GOP House -- preferably a Republican Congress -- holds the power of the purse. Depriving the Biden administration of funds would tamp down the cabal’s ability to govern by fiat (executive order). Now until January 2025, the game is to throw as many wrenches into the Democrats’ machine as possible… grind it to a halt. Gridlock never looked so good. Yet, accomplishing
gridlock won’t solve all the problems that the cabal is making.
There are matters domestic, and then there are matters foreign. The Constitution grants presidents significant leeway in conducting foreign affairs and national security. A president in charge isn’t a luxury. The nation’s enemies -- with plenty of help from the Biden administration -- perceive weakness. Biden, frail and practically checked out, is regarded as an open invitation to
China, Russia, and Iran to push for advantages. The administration’s paper-tiger approach to China -- secretary of state Tony Blinken had his head handed to him last week by PRC representatives Yang Jiechi and Wang Yi -- only emboldens Xi
Jinping. Publicly moralizing about the Uighurs and Hong Kongers, and foot-stomping about Taiwan, cyberattacks and violations of “rules-based order,” means little to Xi and his cronies. Xi is a tyrant; power is his language. The pushback that Blinken and the U.S. contingent received from Xi’s envoys was an unhesitating show of contempt. That’s a harbinger and should worry Americans. In the days ahead, how will Xi test U.S. resolve? Not only that, the real bone of contention with the PRC concerns the South and East China Seas -- international waters and the airspace above -- which the Chinese are attempting to seize. Xi controlling those seas has enormous economic and national security implications for the U.S. (and other nations, most directly those in Asia Pacific). Countering China means not only continuing the revitalization of our armed forces begun by President Trump, but projecting that might routinely into those disputed waters. Actions, not words, will command Xi’s attention and compel caution. Resuming appeasement of Iran signals the Biden administration’s unseriousness in dealing with a sworn enemy of the U.S. Iran is a habitual violator of the international “rules-based order” so prized by the establishment. Buying them off didn’t work for Obama and won’t work again. Paying tribute to the Iranians spells weakness to Xi and another bad player, Vladimir Putin. But bluster, symbolism, and servility are what “progressives” trade in. Hard actions, driven by clearly defined national self-interest, aren’t much factored. Speaking of Putin, he recalled Russia’s ambassador to the U.S. last week. Biden, in a softball interview with ABC News’ George
Stephanopoulos, slammed Putin as a “killer.” Biden’s mouthiness can’t entirely be attributed to his senility. Biden, in fitter days, was prone to strut and bully. Yet with Biden’s mind misfiring, his restraint is
going, too. Remember Biden’s outbursts during
the elections? About being called a killer, Putin, in a well-aimed jab at Biden, said, “It takes one to know one,” and promptly challenged Biden to a
debate. Wiley Vlad is very predatory. America effectively has no president. It has a cabal running things from the White House. It has a very vindictive, narrowly ideological president-in-training, Kamala Harris, who, when she assumes the presidency well before January 2025
offers no remedies but more trouble. Backlashes are building to the folly unfolding at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. This misbegotten administration needs to be hamstrung. The nation’s safety, prosperity, and liberty are on the line.
J. Robert Smith can be found on Parler @JRobertSmith and
at Gab, again @JRobertSmith. +++++++++++++++++ A union’s support of Biden does little to save members’ jobs in Pennsylvania By Salena Zito ROARING SPRING, PA. — When the Appvion Inc. paper mill plant shuts its doors for good in two weeks, putting 293 people out of work, it will mark the first significant manufacturing loss in this state since President Biden took
office. “We were all completely blindsided,” said state Sen. Judy Ward, who along with the union leadership who supported Biden in the election said they had no hint that the plant, founded in 1866, was in danger of shuttering. If you received a stimulus check in the mail, there’s a good chance the men and women who work here produced the paper it was printed on. And yet there will be no stimulus for this factory, which produces carbonless security paper for
official documents like car titles and house deeds. Of the 293 jobs lost, 250 of them will be union, the rest are management. The average person here makes around $67,000 a year, based on a 49-hour work week.
Click here for the full story. ++++++++++ Trying to make sense out of non-sense: Israel''s election results: Guide to the perplexed39 parties contested yesterday’s election, of which, at the time of writing (late morning Wednesday), when some 90% of the votes have been counted, 13 have won seats in the Knesset: Likud 30 seats Yesh Atid 18 seats Shas 9 seats Blue-and-white 8 seats Yamina 7 seats Labour 7 seats United Torah Judaism 7 seats Religious Zionism 6 seats Joint Arab List 6 seats Yisra’el Beyteinu 6 seats New Hope 6 seats Meretz 5 seats Ra’am (United Arab List) 5 seats Speaking on Israel Radio’s Reshet Bet a few minutes after 11:00 on Wednesday morning, the Director-General of the Central Elections Committee, Orli Adess, anticipated that the final count will be published on Friday morning. Changes are possible until then, though major changes are unlikely. The next step will be that each new Member of Knesset will come to President Reuven “Ruby” Rivlin to recommend a party leader as his or her choice for Prime Minister. They can recommend anyone they want, though in practice each MK will recommend either incumbent Binyamin Netanyahu (leader of Likud), or Yair Lapid (leader of Yesh Atid), maybe Benny Gantz (leader of Blue-and-White), or not recommend anyone. Within 7 days after the final votes have been counted, President Rivlin will then charge whoever gets the most recommendations with the task of putting together a coalition, which must contain more than half the Knesset, meaning 61 MK’s or more. He will have 30 days to put a coalition together, and can get a 15-day extension if he needs it. If he fails, he can either get another extension (if the President agrees), or throw the task to the other one, or go back to the country and call for another round of elections. So who can put together a coalition? Binyamin Netanyahu, Yair Lapid, Benny Gantz, or anyone else? To understand this challenge, think of your dining-room table as the Knesset. It has 120 seats, and you are hosting the Seder Night. Netanyahu, leader of Likud, and Lapid, leader of Yesh Atid, are the two grandfathers: both long to be invited, but only on condition that they lead the Seder, choose the menu, make Kiddush, and so forth. Yisrael Beyteinu are cousins from one side of the family, Labour and Meretz are cousins from the other side of the family. These are the cousins who refuse to sit at the same table with each other under any circumstances. Each say about the other: “We’re broiges (Yiddish: not on speaking terms) with them, if they come then we’re not coming!” Shas and United Torah Judaism are the slightly irascible cousins who want to come: they’ll complain about the company (too loud, too secular, too many of them), the seats (too hard, too soft), the food (too spicy, not spicy enough), the air-conditioner (too hot, too cold), and about just about everything else as well. They don’t really care who runs the Seder, they’ll come anyway and try to take over. However Yisra’el Beyteinu is broiges with Shas. Not so much that they refuse to sit at the same table, but they certainly won’t sit next to them, so there has to be someone else sitting between them. Another complication is that Avigdor Lieberman and Yisra’el Beyteinu will only come if they’re allowed to bring their ham sandwiches, but UTJ will only come if the entire celebration is strictly kosher and kosher-for-Pesach. Shas, on the other hand, will come as long as they can have kosher food. They don’t particularly care if anyone else eats kosher or treif, kosher-for-Pesach or chametz, but it’s important for them that they (and their friends) have the option for kosher food. That’s another reason that Yisrael Beyteinu and Shas can’t sit next to each other, but they can sit at the same table. Religious Zionism are the religious cousins who will insist that the Seder Night goes ahead according to all its rules and customs. They don’t necessarily want to force anyone else to participate, but they do want to ensure that everyone has the option of participating and understanding what it’s all about. Hew Hope are the yuppie educated professional cousins from one side of the family, Blue-and- White are the yuppie educated professional cousins from the other side of the family. Both of them are firmly convinced that if only they lead, then the Seder Service will be the best ever. But neither are willing to let the other one get a word in edgeways. They’ll both explain how to guarantee that everyone will have enough to eat and how to keep everyone happy, but because they only talk to themselves, no one else will listen to a word they’re saying, except to nod politely every now and then. They’ll both keep resolutely out of any squabbles over which grandfather should lead the Seder Service, they’re far too polite and well-mannered to have any influence, they’ll agree with whoever is speaking at any given moment and smile politely at everyone, without participating demonstratively in the Seder Service, But they’ll still expect everyone to defer to them, and throw the occasional hissy-fit when they feel ignored. Yamina are the in-laws who came together in the same car, but as soon as they got out of the car, even before they entered the house, they began squabbling over whose fault everything is and who ought to put it right. They’ll make a show of getting along with everyone, but actually they need one of the grandfathers to force them to make up. And neither of the grandfathers really has the necessary time or patience to do it. Then there’s the Joint Arab List: They claim the house is theirs, they want you to clear out. They long to be invited – not because they want to come, they don’t want anything to do with any Seder Night, except maybe to blow it up – but they long to be invited just so they can demonstratively refuse.Ra’am and the Joint Arab List used to be besties, until they recently had a major falling-out. No one was entirely sure what they fought about, but it could be that Ra'am does not want to blow up the Seder table, because the food looks good and it wants its share. They haven’t been talking to each other ever since. And both grandfathers seem to think that they can coax Ra'am to come back to the table and behave nicely, if he just gives them enough candy. Then there’s Labour: the old, doddering uncles who can hardly stand upright anymore, and whoembarrass everyone with their outdated and slightly racist ideas. They constantly bore everyone with their stories of “when I was young”, stories of what they did during the war – but the last time any of them actually did anything worth talking about was before most people today were born. Their young new leader is waiting outside - she doesn't believe in families, much less family gatherings. And finally Meretz, whom almost no one really wanted to invite. Every time they were at family gatherings in the past they took control, and then wrecked the house, making such a mess that it took the rest of us years to clean up after them. The problem is that the caterers have already stipulated that they will only cater the Seder Night for a minimum of 61 guests. So if only 60 or fewer agree to sit at the same table together, you’ll have to write a new guest-list and invite them back in another 6 months or so – maybe in time for Rosh Hashanah. And if that happens, then we’ll call the next round of elections, just as we did last time, and the time before that, and the time before that. And we can but hope that next time will yield a different guest-list. Or maybe – just maybe – that some of the more petulant relatives will have grown up by then. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Just listened to Biden's first press conference. He did not physically trip, looked good for his age and had a list of selected reporters who basically asked soft ball type questions and he responded by looking at his pre-scripted notes. He might look even better at 84 when he runs again. . He said a lot which amounted to little because there were few follow ups and challenges to his misstatements etc. Many questions were basically structured as worthless patronizing. Uncle Joe also treated us to needless attacks on Trump and blamed him for many of his alleged inherited problems. I was hoping Biden would do better but did not expect it would be a meaningful meeting and, in that regard, I was not disappointed. He did agree filibusters were racially motivated but no one asked him for specificity and so it went. When Democrats can not answer in a rational manner they always play the race card. In summation, it was boring but I suspect that is what his handlers hoped to accomplish. He was also treated politely and no questions from FOX, so where's the beef?
Only the most partisan will claim his conference was encouraging. Reporters suck up to ‘nice guy’ BidenBy Post Editorial Board It’s not the most popular sport, but there it was: television networks giving up afternoon airtime to a softball match. Stonewalled for 65 days by President Biden, the press decided their first opportunity to question him should be used to let him monologue on his favorite topics. The AP kicked things off by suggesting Republicans were obstructionists — how is Biden going to get around that? There were a number of questions about the filibuster, with the media basically begging the president to get rid of it. These weren’t inquiries, they were activism. Another question, paraphrased: “Republicans want to pass new election laws, would you like to tell us how terrible that is?” Most of the press couldn’t even say President Donald Trump’s name. They called him “your predecessor.” One reporter, Yamiche Alcindor of PBS, asked a question about the border premised on the idea that “you’re a nice guy.” Stonewalled for 65 days by President Biden, the press decided their first opportunity to question him should be used to let him monologue on his favorite topics. It’s shocking how low the bar has been set for Biden. He seemed confused going from questioner to questioner, he rambled to the point where he finally said, exhausted, ” … anyway.” Biden was mostly monotone until weirdly, hitting his old stump speech, he suddenly raised his voice. And some of his lines. “Makes Jim Crow look like Jim Eagle.” “I have no idea if there will be a Republican Party” in four years. “C’mon, man.” What is he talking about?? “I’m focused every day of putting one foot in front of the other.” Dream big, man! Where’s Joe Acosta, yelling and interrupting? Biden started off with a whopper, saying that the US has performed better than any country in the world when it comes to vaccines, as if Israel doesn’t exist. He bragged about “200 million shots in 100 days, twice my original goal” — not acknowledging that the original goal was already on pace when he took office. “Nearly half of K-8 students” are back in in-person learning. But that’s because of Republican governors, not federal policy. Biden has put no pressure on teachers unions. The discussion of the border that dominated the press conference was malarkey. Biden took no responsibility, saying it was a perennial problem. Yet Trump’s “Remain in Mexico” policy solved that issue, and Biden threw it out on Day 1. Biden’s other answers tried to have it both ways. No, we won’t be deporting poor, desperate people. Yes, we’re not letting most people in. Which is it? But it didn’t matter to reporters, who were only interested in whether people could be processed and let in faster — not anything about border security. Out of Afghanistan? Punt. Where’s your North Korea red line? Punt. China? Let me tell you a long, long story. Barely any news was made, and when it was, it was contradictory. Biden said he’s running for re-election, then backtracked, “that’s my expectation.” There were no real changes in policy for the crisis at the border, for encouraging the economy after COVID, for getting kids back into school. He said he was in it to create jobs, but no one asked about his cancellation of the Keystone pipeline, or restrictive regulations. “The fundamental problem is getting people some peace of mind,” Biden said. This press conference did nothing to help. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Hoover Daily Report Edited:
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