The Crown Prince is the one providing the impetus and
the motivation for change and modernization in his country – moves
that are resisted by his reactionary father, Salman bin Abdulaziz.
President Trump and his peace team courted the Saudis,
and once the Abraham Accords were established, it was hoped that in
time they would come along. Trump’s vision was for a Middle-East
NATO, a formal defense pact among Israel, the UAE, Bahrain and Saudi
Arabia.
There was quiet Saudi acquiescence to the new
diplomatic relationships established via the Accords; the Crown
Prince was testing the waters and finding no backlash with regard to
a growing relationship between Sunni Arab states and Israel.
It was thought that after Sudan and Morocco
established normalization with Israel at the end of 2020, the Saudis
would follow.
Enter Joe Biden, the puppet in the White House who is
being instructed by elements intent on undermining what I have
described above regarding a new Saudi approach.
In late February, Biden announced
that the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) had
released a report assessing that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin
Salman (MBS) had approved an operation to "capture or
kill" journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
Khashoggi, a Saudi citizen, was
once close to the royal family but fell out of favor. He relocated
to the US, where he worked for the Washington Post, often writing
pieces critical of Saudi Arabia. In 2018, Khashoggi was in Turkey
to conduct some official business with the Saudi consulate. He
entered the building and was never seen again.
The Saudis denied knowledge of
what had happened to Khashoggi – who was seen as a danger to the
regime – but in due course evidence surfaced that he had been
murdered via a drug overdose inside the consulate and his body
removed in parts.
I make no bones about the fact
that the Crown Prince is capable of being involved in ordering such
a murder; Saudi Arabia, after all, is a country that adheres to
Sharia law, which calls for the execution of homosexuals.
However, the evidence against him is circumstantial and the
report released by Biden is speculative.
The Jewish Policy Center (JPC) – a
non-profit American think tank – referred to the report as
“faulty,” and said it was of “dubious quality.” The Center further noted
that the extremely short report, which really provided no new solid
information, was released from “the Office” of the Director of
National Intelligence, and not from the Director.
When it was written, the report
was kept classified; Trump, who had his eye on encouraging Saudi
moderation and diplomatic cooperation in the new Middle East,
played down the issue.
Now the US administration has
reversed the Trump position, declassifying the report and releasing
it in a highly publicized announcement.
Why?
On March 11, the JPC sponsored a
webinar during which Jonathan Schanzer, author and senior vice
president of research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies,
spoke about this issue.
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Nor is this the end of it: Biden has also cut
US support for offensive
operations in the war in Yemen, “including
relevant arm sales.”
The argument is that Saudi attacks
incur damage to civilians. “This war
must end,” intoned Biden. He
seeks negotiations.
But reducing restrictions on the Houthis, while
cutting back on
assistance to the Saudi forces fighting them is not
the way to achieve this ostensible goal!! The US no longer has any
leverage against the Houthis. This is
something Schanzer pointed out.
As Iran has continued to supply its forces in Iran
with weaponry, Biden has simply shifted the balance inside Yemen in
Iran’s favor.
That is without mentioning the threat to Saudi Arabia
of the Houthis, centered in north Yemen. In the last month
Houthi rebels have dramatically ramped up attacks on targets inside
Saudi Arabia.
Sending in dozens of missiles and armed drones, they have aimed for
“Riyadh; Abha International Airport; Jiddah Airport; and the King
Khalid air base in southern Saudi Arabia. Last week, the rebels also
claimed two attacks on Aramco oil facilities.”
https://www.nwaonline.com/news/2021/mar/13/houthis-step-up-attacks- on-saudis/
And then there is the exceedingly critical matter of
Iranian-made marine mines:
In an exhibition of military equipment, Houthi
militiamen have recently displayed various “types of Iran-made marine
mines, used recently in attacks against commercial ships in the Red
Sea…
“These Iran-made mines show that the Iranian
Revolutionary Guards have continued to supply the Houthis with
weapons, military technology and experts, making the Yemeni
territories a launch-pad to threaten commercial navigation and
control international waterways,” said Muamer Al-Eryai, Yemini
minister of information.
https://www.arabnews.com/node/1825111/middle-east
Lastly, in his recent webinar, Jonathan
Schanzer shared the fact that Iran is utilizing Yemen as a testing
ground for the development of PGMS – precision guided missiles. These
missiles, he said, might be fired at Israel.
Schanzer expressed concern that in the face of this
total collapse of support from the US, Saudi Arabia might just pack
it in and join Iran’s orbit. This is a horrific possibility.
I, however, remain hopeful (hopeful, not certain) that
just the reverse will happen: The lack of US support might motivate
the Saudi Crown Prince to move ever closer to Israel, which is Saudi
Arabia’s best hope, and to join not just the Abraham Accords but a
newly established Middle-East NATO.
What I wrote about in my last posting reinforces this
hope for me: The fact that there were rumors that the Crown Prince
might have been prepared to meet Netanyahu in Abu Dhabi. And that
according to the savvy Nadav Shragai, the Crown Prince has an
interest in the Temple Mount. This would certainly not be the case if
he were planning on caving to Iran.
The horrendous situation that I have described above
will factor into Israel’s decision on this matter, undoubtedly.
Israeli support for Saudi Arabia, if carefully and wisely considered,
can have an enormous effect on the outcome of this situation.
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