After Robbie's presentation you will have the opportunity to ask questions.
Robbie Friedmann's resume :
Robert_FriedmannInternational terrorism, Incitement and terrorism, Challenges to Israeli societyDr. Robert R. Friedmann is director of the Georgia International Law Enforcement Exchange and Professor Emeritus of Criminal Justice at Georgia State University’s Andrew Young School of Policy Studies. He was the Distinguished Chair of Public Safety Partnerships (2007-2010) and served as Chair (1989-2002) of the Criminal Justice Department at Georgia State University. Dr. Friedmann received his B.S. (Sociology and Anthropology, and Philosophy) from the University of Haifa, Israel (1974); his M.A. and Ph.D. (Sociology) from the University of Minnesota (1978); and his M.S.S.W. (Social Work) from the University of Wisconsin-Madison (1981).
His interest and published work focus on community policing, terrorism, and crime analysis. His books include: Community Policing: Comparative Perspectives and Prospects, (1992), Criminal Justice in Israel: An Annotated Bibliography of English Language Publications, 1948-1993 (1995), Crime and Criminal Justice in Israel: Assessing the Knowledge Base toward the Twenty-First Century (1998), A Diary of Four Years of Terrorism and Anti-Semitism: 2000-2004 (2005; two volumes), and 28 Letters (2012). He also authored numerous articles and research reports on crime and criminal justice focusing on policing and public safety. He was the recipient of several federal grants to improve crime data.Dr. Friedmann chaired the Georgia Commission to Assess State Crime Laboratory Needs into the 21st Century; he is a Member of the Georgia Association of Chiefs of Police (GACP), and a Member of the International Association of Chiefs of Police (IACP) and its Community Policing Committee. He assisted in security planning and preparation for the 1996 Olympic Games in Atlanta, for the 2004 Olympic Games in Athens, Greece, for the 2012 Olympic Games in London, and for the G-8 in Sea Island, Georgia. He served as a member of the Fulton County Court House Security Commission and he serves on the advisory board of the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism, Herzliya, Israel, the Research Institute for European and American Studies, Athens, Greece, and is a member of the executive committee of The International Counter-Terrorism Academic Community.Dr. Friedmann works closely with a number of police departments, in the U.S. and internationally, on community policing and homeland security- ===
- From my learned Constitutional friend, and fellow memo reader in response to my last memo:
Is the U.S. Suicidal? No, but Obama perhaps is because he wants to weaken America, diminish our influence on the world stage and strengthen Iran while check mating Israel and The Saudis. (See 1 and 1a below.)
Already Iran has expressed differences of what has been agreed upon and most particularly what facilities are subject to inspections, how the monies released can be used etc. Meanwhile Obama continues to stress the deal is positive. More lies? You decide. (See 1b below.)
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It has been said a nation divided cannot stand. America is fast becoming that type of nation.
FOR THE MOST PART:
Democrats (Liberals) believe in welfare. Republicans (Conservatives) believe in self reliance and moderate assistance.
Democrats believe in high taxes. Republicans believe in low taxes.
Democrats believe in supporting unions. Republicans oppose unions as having outlived their purpose.
Democrats believe in soft education. Republicans favor rigorous academics.
Democrats believe in self-esteem. Republicans believe you learn even from failing.
Democrats believe in a diminished military. Republicans believe the first obligation of government is protection.
Democrats are basically anti-God. Republicans believe religion and God are glue that holds a nation together.
Democrats do not support the right to own a gun. Republicans believe it is a constitutional right to protect oneself and property and owning a gun is such a right.
Democrats believe accumulated wealth is not fair to those who have not. Republicans believe one should be able to mostly keep what they have earned through their own sweat.
Democrats are personally less charitable. Republicans give more of their wealth in the form of personal charity.
Democrats believe government can never be big enough. Republicans believe government is intrusive and is already too big.
Democrats believe deficits do not matter because government always has resources. Republicans believe deficits matter and will eventually destroy our credit worthiness and debase our currency.
Democrats appear willing to do and say anything to win and then turn around and lie. Republicans remind me of a deer in headlights. They are paralyzed when politics get dirty. Politics is dirty. Anyone who seeks power is, in my opinion, suspect.
Democrats believe man is fouling the earth and will accept any evidence that supports their argument Republicans want evidence of a scientific nature.
Democrats believe Government is the solution. Republicans believe government is the problem.
Democrats believe open borders are acceptable. Republicans believe a nation must secure its borders.
Democrats believe tax money should fund abortions and support Planned Parenthood. Republicans believe government funding of abortions are wrong and Planned Parenthood's actions immoral.
Democrats believe government should determine outcomes. Republicans believe freedom and one's ability, character and being in charge of one's own destiny is preferable.
Democrats think with their heart. Republicans think with their head.
I could go on and on but, by now, I hope you have gotten the point, the message and the division that exists in our society between liberal and conservative philosophy.
Are Democrats wrong to believe as they do? History has shown Socialism and Socialistic approaches and solutions ultimately destroy one's freedom and leads to a totalitarian state. Republicans are wrong when they fail to adhere to their principles.
That is not to say a nation should ignore its social responsibilities and must enforce laws and try to level the playing field whereby all citizens have a legitimate opportunity to prosper according to their abilities and where their abilities are lacking are due consideration and some degree of help ,assistance and above all challenges.
The problem becomes a matter of degree and which entity is best suited to accomplish the desired measured results - the distant federal government or the state and more local governments and private institutions..
Here again, Democrats and Republicans disagree. The former believe government and unending amounts of money are the solution to every problem. Republicans are more empirical.
The final point is Democrats are truer to their philosophy and Republicans are less so. The former talk and walk. The latter talk and limp along!
When it comes to Trump, he is more talk than walk but his talk touches a responsive chord and frustration felt by a large segment of disaffected conservatives. When placed under the microscope of a rigorous challenge and lengthy campaign, Trump may shrink in appeal but he may still retain enough clout and have enough ego to drink his own bathwater in a third party tub and therefore, cause the Republican Nominee to lose. (See 2 below.)
That would be a tragic event after 8 years of Obama and the damage he has done to our nation but if that is the will of American voters then they deserve what they get because a nation of fools cannot long stand either. (See 2a below.)
I received this from a dear friend and fellow memo reader and it actually should have been in my prior memo but it arrived too late. You decide. (See 2b below.)
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A lengthy but important article and update on the status of Hezballah and it's war with Syria and it's ultimate intention to start another war with Israel. (See 3 below.)
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This from a very sane and dear friend and fellow memo reader.:
"Non-Facebook Friends
I am trying to make friends outside of Facebook while applying the
same principles. Therefore every day, I go to the street and tell a
passerby what I have eaten, how I feel, what I have done the night
before and what I will do after. I give them pictures of my wife, my
daughter, my dog, and me gardening and spending time in my pool. I also
listen to their conversations and tell them I love them.
And it works: I already have 3 people following me:
2 police officers and a psychiatrist."
===
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1)
Nuclear Iran: Is the U.S. Really Suicidal?
- No wonder Iran's Supreme Leader sent around a tweet of Obama pointing a pistol at his own head. Iran's forcing itself on the rest of the world is a central part of Khomeini's Islamic Revolution.
- The Ayatollahs' wish has long been finally to defeat the divided Arabs, and then to move on to defeat Israel, and then the grandest prize of all -- the "Great Satan," the United States.
- Worse, apparently a "side deal" -- classified for the Americans but not for Iran -- enables Iran to provide its own soil samples to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), to which it has been lying for decades. Even still worse, the parties to the agreement are required to help Iran protect its nuclear facilities should anyone try to attack them or sabotage them -- including, presumably, any disenchanted signatories.
- Iran will have been rewarded for having violated the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and been given a red carpeted fast track to complete its nuclear bomb.
If Obama and the others who signed the catastrophic nuclear agreement with Iran on the eve of Laylat al-Qadr, the Eve of Destiny, a few days before the end of the Ramadan fast, had studied a little history, they would know that the Battle of Qadisiyyah in 636, in which the Persians suffered a disastrous defeat at the hands of the Arabs, has not yet ended. They would know that Islam had, in fact, been imposed on the Sassanid Empire by force, and that, in protest, the Persians adopted Shi'a Islam, a form of the religion that deviated from and changed the Islam of the Arabs, as a way of rebelling and continuing the fight.
If the West had studied that important event in Islamic history, they would understand they were enabling Iran to achieve a nuclear bomb and accelerate the national religious war between us, the Arabs, and the Shi'ite Iranians. For Iran's mullahs, the showdown is meant to be apocalyptic.
In that respect, the agreement signed by the American-led powers with Iran's rulers is a milestone along the path they have been praying for. The Ayatollahs' wish has long been finally to defeat the divided Arabs, currently at their weakest point since the beginning of the so-called Arab Spring, and then to move on to defeat Israel, and then grandest prize of all: the "Great Satan," the United States.
The Shi'ite regime of the Ayatollahs in Iran and their proxies are united. And, since the fall of the Shah, they are, sadly, also radical. Between their terrorist wings and influence in the Middle East and abroad, the Ayatollahs are refreshingly open about their determination to defeat the Arabs and achieve religious and national hegemony. Iran's forcing itself on the rest of the world is a central part of Khomeini's Islamic Revolution.
U.S. President Barack Obama has harmed us Arabs by abandoning his own red lines -- against the emphatic advice of his own military advisors -- to accept an agreement that in reality gives the Shi'ites open permission to build nuclear weapons at our expense and, more insanely, to allow Iran intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) that could reach America.
Worse, apparently a "side deal" -- classified for Americans but not for Iran -- allows Iran to provide its own soil samples to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), to which it has been lying for decades. In other words, having the cat guard the milk.
Still worse, the parties to the agreement are required to help Iran protect its nuclear facilities should anyone try to attack them or sabotage them -- including, presumably, any disenchanted signatories. No wonder Iran's Supreme Leader sent a tweet of Obama pointing a pistol at his own head.
On July 25, 2015, Iran's Supreme Leader (right) sent a tweet of Obama pointing a pistol at his own head.
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If we try to look at the positive side of the agreement, it is just possible that Obama looked at the Sunni Islamic states, fractured and at each other's throats, and at the ruthless terrorist groups and all the other battle zones gaining ground, and decided that we were too fractious for the U.S. to protect.
Now, one minute before the Iranians would have collapsed under the weight of the economic sanctions, the U.S. has given them a new lease on life, and, supported by the arrival of billions of dollars, is enabling them to return to their broad international terrorist activities and continue developing their nuclear weapons and the ICBMs on which to mount them.
Not only Iran will profit, but also the Turks, the Chinese and the Russians, who have already jumped at the chance to shore up Iran and themselves, both economically and militarily.
America will be now marginalized, as will its allies. What is in store for America is obvious to anyone listening to the hate speech of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He keeps promising that he will continue fighting against America and Israel, and that Iran will neither stop its nuclear development nor surrender.
Instead of lifting the sanctions, the United States should be increasing them.
When Iran joins the global energy market and strengthens its control of the Gulf maritime route, we, the Arabs, will quickly collapse. The recent visits of the Saudi Arabia foreign minister to American and the American Secretary of Defense to Israel did not help. As the arms embargo and sanctions are lifted, money will begin pouring into Iran. Missiles will be developed that will be capable of reaching first Israel and the Sunni Arab states, then Europe and then the United States. Global terrorism will mushroom. Iran will secretly complete its nuclear project ahead of schedule.
Since the agreement forbids agencies affiliated with America, and now apparently "foreigners," from visiting Iran's nuclear installations, the arms industry of Islamic Republic will flourish, and Iran will have been rewarded for having violated the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and will be given a red carpeted fast track to build a nuclear bomb.
Bassam Tawil is based in the Middle East.
1a)
Immoral to say Israel should stay out of Iran accord debate in US, minister says
(photo credit: State Department Photo)
Efforts to muzzle Israeli voices in the US debate over the Iran nuclear accord are unacceptable, illogical and even immoral, National Infrastructure, Energy and Water Minister Yuval Steinitz said on Sunday.
Steinitz, a close confidant of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, responded in an Israel Radio interview to comments US Secretary of State John Kerry made Friday that were interpreted by some as a veiled threat to Israel to tamp down its criticism of the nuclear deal.
Kerry, speaking to the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, said that if Congress overturns the accord, “our friends in Israel could actually wind up being more isolated and more blamed, and we would lose Europe and China and Russia with respect to whatever military action we might have to take, because we will have turned our backs on a very legitimate program that allows us to put their [Iran’s] program to the test over these next years.”
Steinitz completely rejected warnings that Israel should stay out of the debate.
“To demand from a country which Iran threatens publicly to destroy, to wipe it off the map, that it not express its opinion on something so relevant for our national security, future and existence is an illogical and even immoral demand,” Steinitz said.
If there is harsh criticism inside the US – among the public, in Congress, in the media and among experts – then it is because the accord is “full of holes,” Steinitz added.
“This hint that if the agreement will be rejected by Congress, then Israel will turn into a scapegoat, is unacceptable to us,” he said. “Congress is sovereign to make any decision. If it rejects it, that means there is a big majority among the Republicans and also many Democrats who think the accord is not good and is full of holes, and needs to be rejected.”
Hanging the specter of isolation over Israel’s head is not acceptable dialogue between friends, Steinitz said.
It is, however, not the first time Kerry has warned Israel of isolation if it does not adopt the policies he says are good for it.
In a joint television interview in November 2013 with Israeli and Palestinian television networks, Kerry said, “I believe that if we do not resolve the issues between Palestinians and Israelis, if we do not find a way to find peace, there will be an increasing isolation of Israel, there will be an increasing campaign of the delegitimization of Israel that has been taking place on an international basis.”
During that same interview he asked, after saying that chaos may the alternative to getting back to negotiations, “Does Israel want a third intifada?” Two months later, at the Munich Security Conference, he said that the status quo between Israel and the Palestinians cannot be maintained.
“It is not sustainable. It is illusionary,” Kerry said. “You see for Israel there is an increasing delegitimization campaign that has been building up. People are very sensitive to it, there is talk of boycott and other kinds of things. Are we all going to be better with all of that?” On Saturday a senior Israeli official responded to Kerry’s statements by saying, “We reject the threats directed at Israel in recent days.”
Congress will make its decision “based on American interests, which include consideration of US allies,” and “the regrettable attempt to intimidate Israel will not prevent us from voicing our concerns about this deal, which poses direct threats to Israel’s security,” the official said.
1b)Yes, World Is Wrong About Iran
1b)Yes, World Is Wrong About Iran
Bad Deal: The Obama administration says that it can’t have been bamboozled by Iran because that would mean our negotiating partners were tricked too, which is impossible. But they’ve been fooled before.
Maybe Secretary of State John Kerry and the other P5+1 negotiators should all have been wearing “I’m With Stupid” T-shirts.
They spent over a year and a half in talks and ultimately let Iran intimidate them into a deal that will let the world’s leading terrorist regime, with its insane death-wish theology, develop nuclear weapons.
Appearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Kerry was lambasted by Republicans like Chairman Bob Corker, R-Tenn., who told Kerry, “You’ve been fleeced,” charging that he had “codified a perfectly aligned pathway for Iran to get a nuclear weapon,” and Sen. Jim Risch, R-Idaho, who accused Kerry of ranking among “the most naive people in the history of the earth.”
The best performance may have come from Democrat Sen. Bob Menendez of New Jersey, who humiliated Kerry by comparing United Nations Security Council Resolution 1929, which says Iran “shall not undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons,” with Kerry’s deal, which only says Iran is “called upon not to undertake such activity.”
“Why would we accept inferior language that changes the mandatory ‘shall’ to a permissive ‘call upon’?” Menendez asked Kerry. “Can you answer simply: Is Iran banned from ballistic missile work for the next eight years?”
Kerry couldn’t answer, and got mad when Chairman Corker answered “no” for him.
The overall response from Kerry to the avalanche of criticism was to say that Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany accepted the deal too, and “they’re not dumb.”
Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., echoed that, listing the nations in support and insisting that if Kerry was “bamboozled, the world was bamboozled.”
But Moscow and Beijing helped Iran build their nuclear program, beginning decades ago. It is not outlandish to suspect that both of these geopolitical rivals to the world’s lone superpower — back then and now — see gain for themselves in Iranian nuclear terrorism directed against a U.S., Israeli or Western European city, or other target.
In the case of our European allies, don’t cause our eyes to roll, Mr. Secretary, with claims of their foreign policy smarts.
First off, the whole now-failing European Union experiment was designed as a counterweight to the U.S. and its supposedly naive hawkishness toward the Soviet Union. That’s the same hawkishness that defeated the Soviet Union — without firing a shot.
They’re not dumb? In the fall of 1982, Ronald Reagan’s national security adviser, Judge William Clark, had to spend hours with socialist French President Francois Mitterand warning him to stop his months of publicly accusing the U.S. of “hegemony” and calling Reagan names like “Hollywood cowboy.”
As Paul Kengor and Patricia Clark Doerner recall in their biography of Clark, “The Judge,” Clark went so far as to threaten withdrawing America’s nuclear umbrella protecting France from atomic blackmail.
Mitterand was soft on U.S. efforts against terrorism too, refusing to let Reagan fly bombers over France on their way to attack Muammar Gadhafi in Libya in 1986. Two American airmen crashed and died on the exhausting journey that, thanks to Mitterand, was hours longer than it should have been.
The Soviets also nearly smashed NATO into political disarray with their deployment of SS-20 nuclear missiles, paired with KGB-influenced “peace” protests in Europe. President Carter vacillated, and only President Reagan’s later iron-clad commitment to counterdeploying intermediate-range Pershing II and cruise missiles saved Western Europe from possible Soviet atomic blackmail.
Yes, the world can be bamboozled, and millions can die in war as a result. Need history repeat itself?
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2)Does Trump Trump?
Angelo Codevilla on Our Present Moment
Angelo Codevilla is a former staff member of the Senate Intelligence Committee, professor emeritus of international relations at Boston University, and the author of more than a dozen fine books on politics, arms control, and intelligence (if I had to pick a favorite it might be The Character of Nations), including a fine translation of Machiavelli’s Prince published by Yale University Press. Most recently his essay-turned-book The Ruling Class: How They Corrupted America and What We Can Do About It caught the attention of Rush Limbaugh and many others. It argues that our fundamental political problem is not “big government,” but the creation of a ruling class, inhabiting both parties, that is steadily increasing its authoritarian control over the nation. In a conversation a few months ago Angelo remarked, “The 2016 election is simple; the person who runs on the platform ‘Who do they think they are?’ will win.”
It occurred to me that Trump is coming closest to this disposition, flaws and all, which explains why he has taken off. I asked Angelo for his thoughts, and he sends along the following, which ratifies the view that several of Trumps supposed “mistakes” are anything but, though you’ll see at the end Angelo’s final judgment:
“In the land of the blind,” so goes the saying, “the one-eyed man is king.” Donald Trump lept atop other contenders for the Republican presidential nomination when he acted on the primordial fact in American public life today, from which most of the others hide their eyes, namely: most Americans distrust, fear, are sick and tired of, the elected, appointed, and bureaucratic officials who rule over us, as well as their cronies in the corporate, media, and academic world. Trump’s attraction lies less in his words’ grace or even precision than in the extent to which Americans are searching for someone, anyone, to lead against this ruling class, that is making America less prosperous, less free, and more dangerous.
Trump’s rise reminds this class’s members that they sit atop a rumbling volcano of rejection. Republicans and Democrats hope to exorcise its explosion by telling the public that Trump’s remarks on immigration and on the character of fellow member John McCain (without bothering to try showing that he errs on substance), place him outside the boundaries of their polite society. Thus do they throw Br’er Rabbit into the proverbial brier patch. Now what? The continued rise in Trump’s poll numbers reminds all that Ross Perot – in an era that was far more tolerant of the Establishment than is ours – outdistanced both Bush 41 and Bill Clinton before self-destructing, just by speaking ill of both parties before he self destructed.
Republicans Brahmans have the greater reason to fear. Whereas some three fifths of Democratic voters approve the conduct of their officials, only about one fifth of Republican voters approve what theirs do. If Americans in general are primed for revolt, Republican (and independent) voters fairly thirst for it.
Trump’s barest hints about what he opposes (never mind proposes) regarding just a few items on the public agenda have had such effect because they accord with what the public has already concluded about them. For example,Trump remarked, off the cuff, that “Mexico does not send us its best.” The public had long since decided that our ruling class’s handling of immigration (not just from Mexico) has done us harm. The ruling class – officials, corporations, etc.- booed with generalities but did not try to argue that they had improved America by their handling of immigration. The more they would argue that, the more they would lose. At least if someone more able than Trump were leading against them.
Our ruling class was sure that Trump had discredited himself by saying that John McCain, whom they treat as an icon, is not an optimal personification of heroism regardless of what suffering he endured in captivity. But they were mistaken. Because Americans are sick of celebrating victims of defeats, and naturally eager to enjoy the kind of peace that only victories can bring, Trump’s expressed preference for heroes who “don’t get captured” resonated. Trump may or may not know any of the unsavory details about McCain’s actions as a POW and, as a public official, in regard to POWs and MIAs. But it does not take much research to find out why nobody will defend him other than by trying to prevent discussion those details. Surely Republican “architect” Karl Rove, who organized South Carolina’s military vote against McCain in the 2000 primary, knows them. The families of Vietnam POWs-MIAs pour onto anyone who will listen to their bitterness at McCain’s role in denying the existence of abandoned POWs and sealing information about them. The general public can get a glimpse such things by Googling the armed forces’ newspaper Stars and Stripes, Friday June 6, 1969, or the work of Pulitzer Prize NYT reporter Sydney Schanberg.
Moreover, Americans are becoming increasingly skeptical about their celebrities’ integrity. With good reason.
McCain is just a minor example of a phenomenon that characterizes our ruling class: reputations built on lies and cover-ups, lives of myth protected by mutual forbearance, by complicitous journalists, or by records deep-sixed, including in in government archives. Ever wonder, for example, why the establishment of Martin Luther King as a national icon superior to George Washington, as the only American with his own national holiday, was accompanied by sealing government records about him for seventy five years? Because those records reflect well on him and his partisans? Sure. Countless other figures – need one mention Barack Obama? – live by images sustained by denigrating questions about their factual bases while restricting access to those bases. As they lord it over us, they live lives that cannot stand scrutiny.
The point here is simple: our ruling class has succeeded in ruling not by reason or persuasion, never mind integrity, but by occupying society’s commanding heights, by imposing itself and its ever-changing appetites on the rest of us. It has co-opted or intimidated potential opponents by denying the legitimacy of opposition. Donald Trump, haplessness and clownishness notwithstanding, has shown how easily this regime may be threatened just by refusing to be intimidated.
Having failed to destroy Trump, Republicans and Democrats are left to hope that he will self-destruct as Perot did. Indeed, Trump has hardly scratched the surface and may not be able to do more than that. Yet our rulers know the list of things divide them from the American people is long. They want to avoid like the plague any and all arguments on the substance of those things. They fear the rise of an un-intimidated leader more graceful and precise than Trump, someone whose vision is fuller but who is even more passionate in championing the many resentments the voicing of just a few channeled so much support to Trump.
Here are some examples: Justice Kennedy’s majority opinions in Windsor and Obergefell preemptively accused anyone who opposed redefining marriage to include homosexuals of being “offensive,” “hateful.” Refusal to honor homosexual unions, he wrote, is not “explicable by anything except animus.” What if a statesman, speaking for the American people, were to ask what, precisely, is so honorable about anal intercourse that those who refuse to honor it should be so stigmatized? Before 1961, all 50 states criminalized anal intercourse, heterosexual as well as homosexual. Why precisely were they wrong in doing so? By what right does anyone place such questions “out of bounds”?
After a video showing officials of federally-funded Planned Parenthood taking orders for body parts of babies to be custom-slaughtered for that purpose, House Speaker John Boehner deflected demands for legislation to stop this by saying he needed more information. An un-intimidated statesman might ask: Do you not know that each of these little ones’ DNA shows him or her to be an individual son or daughter of an individual mother and father? Like Lincoln, he would argue that no one has the right to exclude any other human from the human race and demand that Boehner answer why he continues to sanction so to dispose of millions of little sons and daughters?
Republicans and Democrats profit personally and through their corporate cronies by a welter of legislation and regulation by which they command what we must eat, how to shower, what medical care is proper and what is not: mandating that a third of the U.S. corn crop be turned into ethanol, restricting the use of coal, how we may use our land, etc. They justify these predatory intrusions into our lives by claiming that peculiar knowledge of science unavailable to others. They refuse to justify their scientific conclusions with the likes of us. An un-intimidated statesman, reiterating that science is reason, public reason, not pretense, would throw the notion that “science R us” back into their faces.
At increasing speed, our ruling class has created “protected classes” of Americans defined by race, sex, age, disability, origin, religion, and now homosexuality, whose members have privileges that outsider do not. By so doing, they have shattered the principle of equality – the bedrock of the rule of law. Ruling class insiders use these officious classifications to harass their socio-political opponents. An un-intimidated statesman would ask: Why should not all “classes” be equally protected? Does the rule of law even admit of “classes”? Does not the 14th amendment promise “the equal protection of the laws” to all alike? He would note that when the government sets aside written law in favor of what the powerful want, it thereby absolves citizens any obligation to obey government.
Habitually, our ruling class tries to intimidate its opponents by calling them “haters” (“racists,” etc. is part of the all too familiar litany.) A statesman worthy of the title would respond that calling people such names is the very opposite of civility, never mind love. Such a leader would trump our rulers.
Donald Trump is not such a person.
2a)Mary Matalin: Trump 'Boon' to GOP
By Todd Beamon
Billionaire businessman Donald Trump is not hurting the Republican Party with its 2016 presidential run — and other candidates should heed his approach and style, said strategist By Mary Matalin.
"He is a boon to it," she said in comments published Saturday on Politico. "Candidates would be well advised to pay close attention to the forensics of his approach, and apply their own unique personalities and policies to their campaign efforts.
"And the GOP leadership should quit insulting him, giving him an excuse to mount a third-party candidacy," Matalin said.Trump, who announced his candidacy last month, is playing well to two disparate audiences: "Common Sense America" and "Conventional Wisdom Establishment," she said.
"CS America is, and has been for some time been, so over the incompetent, posturing national politicians as well as their irrelevant agenda issues and their counterproductive policies," Matalin said of the first group. "They are aching for candidates with authenticity who will address their everyday concerns."
"AND," she added in capital letters, "do not presume a preference for their common-sense world makes them redneck philistines."
In addition, Trump is "exposing the multiple fallacies of CW Establishment politics," Matalin said.
These are "appealing to nontraditional GOP voters requires narrow and corrupt Identity Politics tactics; message resonance demands mandatory acceptance of any and all CW Politically Correct premises, including gratuitous, phony, solicitous kowtowing to the media; that strict avoidance of establishmentarian 'third-rail' issues is political kamikaze," she said.
"Once he gets to the debates," Matalin continued, Trump must "connect his bombastic iconoclastic antics to authentic policy prescriptions, as well as demonstrate his potential effectiveness by past performance metrics.
In addition, Trump is "exposing the multiple fallacies of CW Establishment politics," Matalin said.
These are "appealing to nontraditional GOP voters requires narrow and corrupt Identity Politics tactics; message resonance demands mandatory acceptance of any and all CW Politically Correct premises, including gratuitous, phony, solicitous kowtowing to the media; that strict avoidance of establishmentarian 'third-rail' issues is political kamikaze," she said.
"Once he gets to the debates," Matalin continued, Trump must "connect his bombastic iconoclastic antics to authentic policy prescriptions, as well as demonstrate his potential effectiveness by past performance metrics.
2b)
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3)-
The new Hezbollah: How Israel's No. 1 enemy is preparing for third Lebanon War
By , Ronen Bergman
On Friday, May 15, a convoy of about 12 bright black vehicles left Beirut along with a number of off-road vehicles packed with uniformed fighters. The convoy turned east and drove quickly towards the Syrian border. They didn't raise too much attention among the passersby: Similar convoys of Hezbollah members have been entering the bleeding battlefields in Syria for the past two years. Only some of them will get to see Lebanon again.
But this time, it was different. The black vehicles were carrying Lebanese and Western journalists – including correspondents for Reuters, The Associated Press, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, German media, etc. – not the population segment which Hezbollah is usually fond of.
They were driven to the border of the fighting zone in the Qalamun Mountains in Syria in order to view the lands Hezbollah recently conquered from the “takfiris” (the infidels, a combination of Arabic and English, as Hezbollah refers to the rebels in Syria). The goal was clear: To show the world how Hezbollah is fighting the Islamic State and other members of the “radical and dark Islam,” according to one of the escorts on behalf of Hezbollah, which the West is so afraid of.
One of the participants of this unusual tour told Yedioth Ahronoth last week in a conversation from Beirut that the escorts had gone out of their way to make sure that the journalists were satisfied and received everything they wanted, so that they would produce a favorable article. He said there had been some preconditions – no “political talk” and handing over all cell phones at the beginning of the tour – but the refreshments were not bad and there was a pleasant atmosphere. Relative to Hezbollah, of course.
One of the participants of this unusual tour told Yedioth Ahronoth last week in a conversation from Beirut that the escorts had gone out of their way to make sure that the journalists were satisfied and received everything they wanted, so that they would produce a favorable article. He said there had been some preconditions – no “political talk” and handing over all cell phones at the beginning of the tour – but the refreshments were not bad and there was a pleasant atmosphere. Relative to Hezbollah, of course.
Journalists' tour of fighting zone in Qalamun Mountains. The goal was clear: To show the world how Hezbollah is fighting the 'radical and dark Islam'(Photo: AFP)
The tour began in Baalbek, the organization's most important stronghold in Lebanon. From there, the convoy drove up to the mountains bordering Syria. The Hezbollah fighters proudly pointed at charred remains of vehicles and weapons and said they used to belong to members of Jabhat al-Nusra, the jihadist Sunni militia fighting Syrian President Bashar Assad.
The journalists were impressed. “Entire areas of the border, from Brital (a town in eastern Lebanon) and southward, are protected and controlled by Hezbollah. There is no Lebanese army there, and there is no Syrian army. The Hezbollah organization is the one protecting Lebanon from an ISIS invasion: Posts, weapon convoys and dozens of overly armed fighters, who are willing to stop any attack with their bodies,” one of the journalists reported.
The tour continued, stopping at Shiite villages in the area. There, the journalists met civilians, who naturally thanked Hezbollah for helping them keep their heads attached to their necks – although ISIS and its friends are right here, around the corner.
“I would be happy if the Lebanese army could protect us,” one of the villagers told the journalists. “But Israel and the United States are preventing the transfer of advanced arms to the Lebanese army for fear that it would attack Israel later on, so it's failing to become a significant military power. Therefore, there is no one who can protect us. Apart from Hezbollah.”
And that's the exact message that Hezbollah of the summer of 2015 is trying to convey: Hezbollah is the real defender of Lebanon and the last force preventing the Land of Cedars from falling into the hands of radical Islam. Therefore, despite its conflict with Israel, when it comes to fighting ISIS and its partners – Hezbollah is actually helping the West.
But as usual, where Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah is concerned, it's only part of the picture. The journalists were not shown the many graves, scattered across southern Lebanon, of Hezbollah fighters killed in the battles in Syria. There was also no mention of the fact that the unrest against the organization is increasing in Lebanon, and in general, that Hezbollah is in one of the most difficult moments in its history.
They were also not told that in the meantime, Hezbollah is also speeding up its preparations for the third Lebanon war, and that this time it has no intention of settling for firing rockets and missiles at Israel.
There are those in the Israeli intelligence community who are now referring to the organization as “Hezbollah 3.0″ or “Third Generation Hezbollah”: The first generation was the founding generation during Israel's presence in southern Lebanon; the second is Hezbollah of the Second Lebanon War; and now it's a completely new Hezbollah. On the one hand it is sinking on the Syrian mud, and on the other hand it is gaining vast combat experience and new weapons – and is planning to use both in due course. The only question is when.
Through research reports and conversations with intelligence sources, Yedioth Ahronoth outlines an internal profile of the military force, which was and will likely remain Israel's No. 1 enemy. Yes, even when ISIS sits on the fences.
Killing the 'takfiris'
Up to a year ago, Hezbollah was still doing everything in its power to cover up its involvement in the battles splitting Syria. The organization, which gave each of its fighters who died in the battle against Israel a huge pathos-filled funeral, actually concealed the funerals of its fighters who were killed in masses in Syria. They were buried quietly, in the darkness, in the presence of the families only. Nasrallah anyway found it difficult to deal with the criticism leveled at him: Instead of fighting Israel – the reason for Hezbollah's existence – the organization is now busy killing other Muslims.
No one ever dreamed that Western journalists would be invited to tour the battle zone either. Wafik Safa – the man notoriously remembered in Israel from the return of the bodies of kidnapped IDF soldiers Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev – conveyed filtered messages, most of which were only directed at the Lebanese public. These messages were relayed through media outlets under full Hezbollah control: The organization's television station, Al-Manar; a series of websites led by Al-Muqawama (“the resistance”) and the blog “Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah”; and (quite a large) number of Lebanese journalists perceived as being loyal to the organization.
ISIS execution in Syria. The 'new Satan' in the eyes of the WestHezbollah's contact in the press, Ibrahim Mousawi, turned down any request for a response or for joining the organization members on any type of activity. The few attempts made by media outlets to document the night funerals were met with an even more aggressive opposition. Even interviews with Hezbollah's representatives in the Lebanese parliament (Majles al-Nouwab al-Lubnani) were blocked.
But then Nasrallah realized that the depth of his organization's involvement in Syria can no longer be concealed – and that he should even use it for his own benefit. It happened when the beheading videos turned ISIS into the new Satan in the eyes of the West. And who is on the ground to fight it? That's right, Hezbollah.
Nasrallah changed his approach by 180 degrees: The new Hezbollah is no longer ashamed of the fact that its soldiers are getting killed in Syria; on the contrary, it is proud of it. They are dying in order to eradicate an enemy which is endangering all of humanity. Almost overnight, the funerals of the fighters killed in Syria turned into huge ceremonies and well-covered military shows of force.
That was also the start of an image change. Ibrahim Mousawi was replaced a year ago by Mohammed Afif, who previously served as the Al-Manar station manager. Afif has been tasked with rebranding the radical organization. It's not easy, but the fact that there is someone more radical around, with a special fondness for horrific executions, helps him greatly.
“It's very important to Afif,” says a journalist representing a major Western European media outlet in Beirut, “to stress that ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra are enemies shared by all of us – Hezbollah, the Lebanese people, the Syrian people and the West. They are saying: You, the West, see all of us as one bloc of radical Arabs, but it's not true. There is an enlightened and progressive Islam, which is the Shiite Hezbollah's Islam, and there is a dark and horrible Islam, the radical Sunnis. They are the ones we must all fight.”
But Israeli officials have no doubt about the real intentions of the new “defenders of the West” from southern Lebanon. “Hezbollah is Israel's most challenging enemy and our main reference point for some 30 years now,” says Colonel (res.) Ronen Cohen, the former director of the Terrorism Desk at the IDF Military Intelligence Directorate and deputy head of Military Intelligence's Research Division. Today Cohen is one of the owners of Inspiration, a company specializing in managing security projects and providing intelligence collection and information processing and analysis services in Middle Eastern and Persian Gulf countries.
“Hamas is an important challenge as well, of course, but it was always the 'small brother' standing in Hezbollah's big shadow. Since the Taif Agreement (1989), which left Hezbollah as the only armed militia in Lebanon, we realized it is the main strategic threat as far as we are concerned. The operation of command and control systems, the Iranian-sponsored training, the weapons, and especially the rocket arsenal and warfare perception have been duplicated in Gaza time and again.”
The Israeli intelligence community understands very well that Hezbollah's situation has changed extremely since the end of the Second Lebanon War. Last June, Nasrallah's rhetoric against Israel became particularly aggressive. During one of the weeks that month he delivered as many as three speeches, which included direct threats against Israel.
“Hamas is an important challenge as well, of course, but it was always the 'small brother' standing in Hezbollah's big shadow. Since the Taif Agreement (1989), which left Hezbollah as the only armed militia in Lebanon, we realized it is the main strategic threat as far as we are concerned. The operation of command and control systems, the Iranian-sponsored training, the weapons, and especially the rocket arsenal and warfare perception have been duplicated in Gaza time and again.”
The Israeli intelligence community understands very well that Hezbollah's situation has changed extremely since the end of the Second Lebanon War. Last June, Nasrallah's rhetoric against Israel became particularly aggressive. During one of the weeks that month he delivered as many as three speeches, which included direct threats against Israel.
At the moment, intelligence experts believe, Hezbollah is not planning to attack Israel in the near future, mainly because it is investing its power in the fighting in Syria. And what will happen there? Some estimate that eventually – despite the huge support Assad is receiving from Iran and Hezbollah, the Syrian president will slowly wear out, and collapse. Only then will Nasrallah return to Israel's northern border, redeploy and seek to restore his initial position – Lebanon's “defender” against Israel – as soon as possible.
Other estimates raise the possibility that Nasrallah won't even wait for the results of the war in Syria and will launch a move against Israel even before Assad's collapse.
In any event, “Hezbollah is in the most difficult situation in its history,” Brigadier-General (res.) Dr. Shimon Shapira, a former Military Intelligence official and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's military secretary during his first term, estimated recently. We spoke in early June, before he was appointed as the foreign minister's chief of staff.
Shapira mentioned one of Nasrallah's recent speeches, in which the secretary-general said that “our existence is being threatened”. “Hezbollah is getting dragged into an increasingly deeper involvement in Syria at Iranian orders,” Shapira says.
Hezbollah supporters in Lebanon. Harsh criticism from outside the organization and the Shiite faction
(Photo: Reuters)
But this involvement comes with a bleeding price tag. According to an updated Military intelligence estimate, the number of Hezbollah members sent to fight in Syria is higher than 6,000 and may have even reached 8,000. This is a huge number for the organization, and it is essentially the majority of its finest combat power. The Israeli intelligence's updated estimations are that about 1,300 of the organization's soldiers have been killed so far in the battles in Syria.
Hezbollah supporters in Lebanon. Harsh criticism from outside the organization and the Shiite faction(Photo: Reuters)
But this involvement comes with a bleeding price tag. According to an updated Military intelligence estimate, the number of Hezbollah members sent to fight in Syria is higher than 6,000 and may have even reached 8,000. This is a huge number for the organization, and it is essentially the majority of its finest combat power. The Israeli intelligence's updated estimations are that about 1,300 of the organization's soldiers have been killed so far in the battles in Syria.
“This is an intolerable price as far as Hezbollah is concerned,” says Shapira. “It's more than they lost in all the battles and wars with Israel put together.”
This price is beginning to evoke criticism within and around the organization. “Hezbollah is making a huge effort to silence authentic voices coming out of the Shiite faction against the involvement in Syria,” says Shapira.
The loudest speaker was Subhi al-Tufayli, the organization's first secretary-general. Al-Tufayli announced that as far as he is concerned and according to his religious perception, whoever dies in battles in Syria is not a “shahid” (martyr), and will therefore not reach heaven. It's difficult to underrate the power of this statement, which rocked the organization.
“After he said what he did, al-Tufayli received a scathing visit at his home in Brital, and has since moved to the 'Keeping the Silence' organization,” Shapira reports.
Al-Tufayli is not alone. A series of Shiite intellectuals, including women, are harshly attacking Hezbollah over its aid to Assad.
Hezbollah is also starting to feel the discomfort among the fighters and their family members. Only recently, Nasrallah issued an unusual order: In families of a fighter who died in Syria, there will be no additional recruitment to Hezbollah's combat units.
“Hezbollah used to brag about parents who had one child killed in battles with Israel and immediately announced that they were putting their other children at the organization's disposal,” says Shapira. “Today you don’t hear such things anymore. Why? Many in Hezbollah understand that while the enemy is the ones Hezbollah refers to as 'takfiris,' at the end of the day they are Muslims. It's a war within Islam, between Sunnis and Shiites. Not a war against Israel.”
Nasrallah's problems
Nasrallah's problems
But the main criticism against Hezbollah is leveled at it from outside the organization and the Shiite faction. Why, ask the Sunnis – the Druze and Christians in Lebanon, is Hezbollah claiming that it remains an armed militia in order to fight Israel, but is actually helping Assad massacre the citizens of Syria?
Hezbollah's support for Assad has even led to terror attacks against Hezbollah carried out by Syrian Sunni organizations, some of which belong to the global jihad.
Jabhat al-Nusra is not sparing any efforts either to reiterate that its members will never forgive and never forget. The organization's commander in the Qalamoun Mountains, for example, wrote in a few tweets on his Twitter account on July 7: “A message to Hezbollah: Your support for Nusayri (a derogatory nickname for Assad's regime) demonstrates your hatred towards the Sunnis. You jailed their women and betrayed (the refugees) who sought your help, begging to be given a shelter in your country. Don’t you dare think that you will escape our anger even many years later. We promise you the same destiny as God promised the people of Israel, when they turned to idolatry. We won't lay down our sword until the Sharia law (the Islamic religious law) dominates the country and until we avenge our dignity.” Hezbollah, it seems, has created another front for itself.
At first Nasrallah tried to deal with the problem by founding a satellite organization called Hezbollah Syria, thereby perhaps slightly diminishing the direct link between Hezbollah of southern Lebanon and the Hezbollah which kills Muslims in Syria. Hezbollah's graphic designers even designed a flag for the organization with the caption “We yearn for you, Zaynab” (Zaynab is the daughter of Ali, the first Shia imam. There is a very sacred Shiite compound named after her in the outskirts of Damascus. Hezbollah claimed at first that it only entered Syria in order to defend this compound).
At first Nasrallah tried to deal with the problem by founding a satellite organization called Hezbollah Syria, thereby perhaps slightly diminishing the direct link between Hezbollah of southern Lebanon and the Hezbollah which kills Muslims in Syria. Hezbollah's graphic designers even designed a flag for the organization with the caption “We yearn for you, Zaynab” (Zaynab is the daughter of Ali, the first Shia imam. There is a very sacred Shiite compound named after her in the outskirts of Damascus. Hezbollah claimed at first that it only entered Syria in order to defend this compound).
The idea was that the Hezbollah Syria organization would settle down near the Golan Heights, and later open another front against Israel. Nasrallah put Jihad Mughniyeh, the son of Hezbollah commander Imad Mughniyeh who was killed in 2008 in an assassination attributed to Israel and the United States, in charge of the unit. Nasrallah sought to create a symbol, a sort of future generation – the son's revenge for the death of his martyr father.
The son did follow in his father's footsteps, but not the way Nasrallah had planned: In January 2015, an assassination – which was also attributed to Israel – ended Jihad Mughniyeh's life (and the life of another high-ranking Iranian general). Instead of Mughniyeh, Nasrallah appointed Samir Kuntar, the murderer of the Haran family from Nahariya, to command the organization. Dr. Shapira sees it as a Hezbollah attempt to also recruit the Syrian Golan's Druze, who are paying a bloody price for the Sunni rebels' fanaticism.
IDF strike in Beirut in the Second Lebanon War. 'Nasrallah and his men are operating on the ground as if the war with Israel is about to break out tomorrow morning' (Photo: Reuters)Meanwhile, Hezbollah hasn't had too many successes on the Israeli front either. Since Imad Mughniyeh's death, the organization has been hit with a series of blows, most of which it attributed to Israel: Assassinations of a few other activists, led by Hassan Lakkis, the head of Hezbollah's arms development wing; mysterious explosions in the organization's armament sites; and repeated bombings of weapon convoys from Syria to Lebanon.
According to Hezbollah's perception, the activities it attributes to Israel against it means that the Israeli intelligence has deeply penetrated its ranks. This is quite a blow for Nasrallah: If these actions, or part of them, were indeed carried out by Israel – how is it succeeding, again and again, in infiltrating a closed, departmentalized and idealistic organization like Hezbollah?
Recently, Hezbollah claims, it managed to expose a person spying for Israel within the organization. According to reports, Mohammed Shurba from the southern Lebanon village of Mahrouna began working for the Mossad in 2007. Hezbollah's suspicions were raised after five failed attempts to avenge Mughniyeh's assassination. Shurba's position was in the unit responsible for Nasrallah's security, and he later assumed senior roles in Unit 910, which is responsible for Hezbollah's operations abroad.
Shurba was recruited by the Mossad, according to reports in Lebanon, during one of his trips to Asian countries as part of his job. According to Hezbollah, they had their suspicions against Shurba, and then a source in the organization told him about a planned “operation” against one of Israel's embassies, which would be executed within 48 hours from a certain operations apartments. Hezbollah members were apparently watching the apartment from outside, and shortly after they saw local police forces raiding the place (and finding nothing, of course), Shurba was arrested.
By the way, Shurba was arrested about two months before the assassination of Jihad Mughniyeh. If the claims regarding Israel's involvement in the assassination are true, then even after Shurba, the alleged “Israeli spy,” Nasrallah's organization remains transparent to Israel.
Nasrallah's problems don't end here. Serious criminal proceedings are underway in The Hague against members of the organization for the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005. In addition, a series of financial corruption affairs – some of which are unknown outside the organization – have caused Iran to cut its financial support for the organization and have created difficulties in its cash flow. And with ideology alone, as we know, one can't buy rockets.
Shurba was recruited by the Mossad, according to reports in Lebanon, during one of his trips to Asian countries as part of his job. According to Hezbollah, they had their suspicions against Shurba, and then a source in the organization told him about a planned “operation” against one of Israel's embassies, which would be executed within 48 hours from a certain operations apartments. Hezbollah members were apparently watching the apartment from outside, and shortly after they saw local police forces raiding the place (and finding nothing, of course), Shurba was arrested.
By the way, Shurba was arrested about two months before the assassination of Jihad Mughniyeh. If the claims regarding Israel's involvement in the assassination are true, then even after Shurba, the alleged “Israeli spy,” Nasrallah's organization remains transparent to Israel.
Nasrallah's problems don't end here. Serious criminal proceedings are underway in The Hague against members of the organization for the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005. In addition, a series of financial corruption affairs – some of which are unknown outside the organization – have caused Iran to cut its financial support for the organization and have created difficulties in its cash flow. And with ideology alone, as we know, one can't buy rockets.
'A sensitive matter'
Despite Hezbollah's tough situation – and perhaps because of it – Nasrallah and his men are constantly busy preparing for the next war in Israel. “They are operating on the ground as if the war is about to break out tomorrow morning,” says a senior military source.
Two years after the Second Lebanon War, Nasrallah announced that his forces were ready with more missiles and more people than they were on the eve of the war, in July 2006. Since then, the organization is only growing stronger.
“They gave the keys to the new apartments in the Dahiya area, instead of the ones that were destroyed, to the tenants three-four months after the war, and only after they finished rebuilding all the military facilities destroyed by the Air Force,” says Colonel (res.) Ronen Cohen. Their list of priorities is clear.”
“They gave the keys to the new apartments in the Dahiya area, instead of the ones that were destroyed, to the tenants three-four months after the war, and only after they finished rebuilding all the military facilities destroyed by the Air Force,” says Colonel (res.) Ronen Cohen. Their list of priorities is clear.”
According to estimates, Hezbollah currently has 80,000 to 100,000 missiles and rockets, which are all directed at Israel. In addition, the organization has greatly improved its unmanned aerial vehicles and has built a unit of “suicide” aircraft, which can reach many areas in Israel and explode on selected targets.
“Hezbollah has an interest to divert the attention from what is happening in Syria,” the journalist from Beirut says,” and to repeat all the time: Don't think that the fighting in Syria is discouraging us from fighting Israel.”
“Hezbollah has an interest to divert the attention from what is happening in Syria,” the journalist from Beirut says,” and to repeat all the time: Don't think that the fighting in Syria is discouraging us from fighting Israel.”
A Lebanese journalist was recently permitted to enter some of the “modern bunkers” built by the organization. He was led there with his eyes covered, and the cover was only removed once the door behind him was closed. His report spoke about new electricity and ventilation systems, modern encoded communication with the Hezbollah headquarters in the Dahiya, and more. All this, he was explicitly told, is part of the preparations ahead of the next war with Israel.
Israel is not blind to these Hezbollah efforts and has significantly increased its routine intelligence monitoring of every movement made by the organization's forces in Lebanon. The alleged Israeli drone which crashed into the sea in Lebanon earlier this month could be an example of these efforts.
The IDF is also very busy with the tunnel issue in the north. The IDF Spokesperson's Unit confirmed only recently that following complaints of digging sounds heard at night, the army is holding a comprehensive investigation into suspicions that Hezbollah is digging tunnels under the Israeli border. It's unclear how reliable this inquiry is, as there is still no reliable technology allowing the detection of tunnels – apart from some parts of the southern border, where the defense establishment is building a seismic fence against tunnels.
Sources in the IDF say the army has failed to find any evidence of tunnels being excavated by Hezbollah. A military source told us, however, that data received from the company which carried out the investigation did not rule out the existence of tunnels.
The question is: If Hezbollah does have tunnels, what will it do with them? According to Ronen Cohen, “Since the great admiration which captured us when we saw the Americans' performance against Iraq in 1991, we raised the banner of 'counter warfare': Massively using the Air Force combined with special units and very little ground invasions, if any.
“A new security perception was built around the 'counter warfare,' which relied on deterring the enemy and was backed by statements from senior officials in the military and political echelons that Israel could not reach a clear victory and that we should therefore just try to prolong the periods of time between one round and another.
“Today, Hezbollah has reached the understanding that we can't beat them. After six rounds of fighting – Operation Accountability, Operation Grapes of Wrath, the Second Lebanon War, Operation Cast Lead, Operation Pillar of Defense and Operation Protective Edge – in which Israel failed to score a victory, Nasrallah realized that because of the social and political price concerning dead soldiers, we are incapable of defeating him.
“Nasrallah also understood something else from us: That Israel's security perception – which requires moving the war to enemy territory as fast as possible – applies to him to. Naturally, Hezbollah doesn’t armored maneuvers like the IDF has, and we are talking about a different kind of fighting, but the principle remains the same: Operating deep within the ground.
“Therefore, Hezbollah's goal is a ground invasion, which could be made up of a number of elements: Using the underground and aboveground area near the border's wadis; and an entry of many commando and antitank teams deep into the Upper and Western Galilee in order to survive as long as possible.
“The fighting teams will use explosive devices and antitank missiles like the Kornet, which reaches an efficient rage of 5 kilometers during the day and 3 kilometers at night. Through these ranges, they will be able to control vehicles on the Lower Galilee's roads from the high mountains of the Upper Galilee, not to mention the Acre-Safed road, the roads going up the Galilee panhandle, etc.
“The fighting teams will use explosive devices and antitank missiles like the Kornet, which reaches an efficient rage of 5 kilometers during the day and 3 kilometers at night. Through these ranges, they will be able to control vehicles on the Lower Galilee's roads from the high mountains of the Upper Galilee, not to mention the Acre-Safed road, the roads going up the Galilee panhandle, etc.
“The topographic structure, the plants and rocks of the Galilee are very similar to what they are used to in Lebanon. At the same time, it's the exact same fighting they are now acquiring huge experience in through their battles in Syria, much more experience than most of the IDF's commanders and fighters have.
“We should pay attention to Nasrallah's statements in this context. Before the Second Lebanon War he promised to release Samir Kuntar and the rest of the Lebanese prisoners. When he kidnapped IDF soldiers Regev and Goldwasser on July 12, 2006, Nasrallah convened a press conference and referred to the abduction operation as 'the truth guaranteeing operation' – in other words, fulfilling his historic commitment.
“He is using the same words today regarding the 'liberation' of the Galilee: 'The promise that won't be broken.' In other words, a promise which he has to fulfill, on a personal level.”
So what do you think he is planning?
“There is no intention of conquering the entire area for good. But it's enough for Hezbollah cells to deploy in the area, hide for a while and hit vehicles and meeting points of the fighting forces preparing to enter Lebanon, in order to deeply sabotage any IDF plan of action.”
Cohen's scenario has quite a few supporters in the IDF and Israeli intelligence. Others say Nasrallah will try to reach a achievement such as a “victory shot” – in the form of waving a Hezbollah flag over an Israeli community or spot which has been “occupied.” Even if the IDF terminates the force five minutes later, the effect of such an image, which will likely go viral on social media, will create the real damage.
Cohen says part of the problem stems from the fact that the IDF, against Hezbollah (and also against Hamas) has mainly become a responsive element. “We gave up initiating and pursuing contact with the enemy,” he says, “and searched for a counter response to the development of Hezbollah and Hamas, mainly against the rocket arsenal.
There are those in the IDF who assert that nonetheless, the Second Lebanon War created serious deterrence in Hezbollah from attacking Israel. This deterrence, those sources say, is the reason why Hezbollah is not fulfilling its angry promises of revenge.
This is of course a realistic option, but there are those in the intelligence community who say there is a different reason: Immediately after the battles began in 2006, Israel has learned, a delegation of senior Iranians – led by representatives of the Revolutionary Guards, Hezbollah's adoptive body – arrived in Beirut. The delegation reprimanded Nasrallah mercilessly. The military preparations we are devoting and giving you for a conflict with Israel were meant for a completely different time, they lashed out at him. They were meant for a response in case Israel bombs Iran's nuclear facilities. You have revealed the cards and the abilities we have given you without any reason, simply in order to kidnap soldiers and fulfill your promise to bring Samir Kuntar back home. And who is Kuntar anyway, someone added. Just a f**king Druze.
“We should pay attention to Nasrallah's statements in this context. Before the Second Lebanon War he promised to release Samir Kuntar and the rest of the Lebanese prisoners. When he kidnapped IDF soldiers Regev and Goldwasser on July 12, 2006, Nasrallah convened a press conference and referred to the abduction operation as 'the truth guaranteeing operation' – in other words, fulfilling his historic commitment.
“He is using the same words today regarding the 'liberation' of the Galilee: 'The promise that won't be broken.' In other words, a promise which he has to fulfill, on a personal level.”
So what do you think he is planning?
“There is no intention of conquering the entire area for good. But it's enough for Hezbollah cells to deploy in the area, hide for a while and hit vehicles and meeting points of the fighting forces preparing to enter Lebanon, in order to deeply sabotage any IDF plan of action.”
Cohen's scenario has quite a few supporters in the IDF and Israeli intelligence. Others say Nasrallah will try to reach a achievement such as a “victory shot” – in the form of waving a Hezbollah flag over an Israeli community or spot which has been “occupied.” Even if the IDF terminates the force five minutes later, the effect of such an image, which will likely go viral on social media, will create the real damage.
Cohen says part of the problem stems from the fact that the IDF, against Hezbollah (and also against Hamas) has mainly become a responsive element. “We gave up initiating and pursuing contact with the enemy,” he says, “and searched for a counter response to the development of Hezbollah and Hamas, mainly against the rocket arsenal.
There are those in the IDF who assert that nonetheless, the Second Lebanon War created serious deterrence in Hezbollah from attacking Israel. This deterrence, those sources say, is the reason why Hezbollah is not fulfilling its angry promises of revenge.
This is of course a realistic option, but there are those in the intelligence community who say there is a different reason: Immediately after the battles began in 2006, Israel has learned, a delegation of senior Iranians – led by representatives of the Revolutionary Guards, Hezbollah's adoptive body – arrived in Beirut. The delegation reprimanded Nasrallah mercilessly. The military preparations we are devoting and giving you for a conflict with Israel were meant for a completely different time, they lashed out at him. They were meant for a response in case Israel bombs Iran's nuclear facilities. You have revealed the cards and the abilities we have given you without any reason, simply in order to kidnap soldiers and fulfill your promise to bring Samir Kuntar back home. And who is Kuntar anyway, someone added. Just a f**king Druze.
Since that admonition, which almost cost Nasrallah his seat, he has been holding fire and restraining himself, according to that perception, not for fear of Israel – but for fear of Iran.
If that is the situation, then now that the nuclear agreement has been signed, “it will be clear to the Iranians that Israel is not about to attack them, and they will therefore let go a bit and allow Nasrallah to respond as he pleases,” says Cohen. From the moment the nuclear agreement is signed and the sanctions on Iran are lifted, Tehran is able to transfer more funds to Hezbollah, and much more easily.
And there is another point Israel must take into account: The demographic changes in the Lebanese army itself. Traditionally, the Lebanese army relies on a more or less representative sample of the variety of factions in the country. But since 2006, Nasrallah has ordered his people to widely expand the Shiite enlistment with the Lebanese army. He believes that Hezbollah will thereby turn into part of the establishment, and a Shiite army will anyway never act against the organization.
And there is another point Israel must take into account: The demographic changes in the Lebanese army itself. Traditionally, the Lebanese army relies on a more or less representative sample of the variety of factions in the country. But since 2006, Nasrallah has ordered his people to widely expand the Shiite enlistment with the Lebanese army. He believes that Hezbollah will thereby turn into part of the establishment, and a Shiite army will anyway never act against the organization.
There aren't any accurate figures about the number of Shiite soldiers in the Lebanese army, but according to estimates, they make up a relative majority or at least the same number as Christian soldiers. The Sunnis and Druze in the army are the small groups.
Many young Shiites, who seek a reasonable and safe salary and haven't been accepted as fighters by Hezbollah, actually see the Lebanese army as a preferable option and enlist with Nasrallah's blessing.
“In the next war the IDF will also have to take into account the Lebanese army, which has grown stronger militarily and has become pro-Hezbollah,” says Cohen.
In Lebanon, on the other hand, there are those who say that Israel is actually planning to attack or ignite the situation, wanting to “come full circle” from 2006. There is one thing everyone more or less agrees on: If and when the third Lebanon war erupts, it could very quickly turn much violent, harsh and brutal than all the previous rounds.
The IDF Spokesperson's Unit offered the following response: “The IDF is carrying out routine security activities on the northern border, focusing on diverse defense and intelligence components, out of an understanding that the tunnels are among the various threats in the area, and is consistently carrying out intelligence operational activity to uncover tunnels, if those indeed exist.
“So far, every appeal regarding noises and a suspected tunnel has been checked by designated forces and ruled out. To this very day, neither a shaft nor a tunnel have been found. The IDF is carrying out extensive activity for the development of new technologies.”
Many young Shiites, who seek a reasonable and safe salary and haven't been accepted as fighters by Hezbollah, actually see the Lebanese army as a preferable option and enlist with Nasrallah's blessing.
“In the next war the IDF will also have to take into account the Lebanese army, which has grown stronger militarily and has become pro-Hezbollah,” says Cohen.
In Lebanon, on the other hand, there are those who say that Israel is actually planning to attack or ignite the situation, wanting to “come full circle” from 2006. There is one thing everyone more or less agrees on: If and when the third Lebanon war erupts, it could very quickly turn much violent, harsh and brutal than all the previous rounds.
The IDF Spokesperson's Unit offered the following response: “The IDF is carrying out routine security activities on the northern border, focusing on diverse defense and intelligence components, out of an understanding that the tunnels are among the various threats in the area, and is consistently carrying out intelligence operational activity to uncover tunnels, if those indeed exist.
“So far, every appeal regarding noises and a suspected tunnel has been checked by designated forces and ruled out. To this very day, neither a shaft nor a tunnel have been found. The IDF is carrying out extensive activity for the development of new technologies.”
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