Saturday, April 18, 2015

Judith Miller - Courageous Lone Voice. Culture Issues A Trap for Conservatives! More Concession Afoot? Quiz!


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More on Judith Miller.  I intend to read her book while  at Litchfied Beach.

She is a courageous lone voice in an otherwise field of closed media and press minds who have lost all credibility because of their bias. (See 1 below.)
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Grandma Hillary is hemmed in by Obama.  She may not agree with him but she is part of the Obama fabric and she cannot disavow his failed policies which she helped implement.

She needs to read Joel Chandler and "Eat More Chickin!" (See 2 and 2a below.)
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Conservatives will lose again if they focus on culture though there is something morally appropriate and to be concerned about  regarding  issues of abortion, gay rights etc.

The primal reason for government is 'protective."  Any government that cannot protect its citizens has no standing and will fail.  That said, a government that stands also must defend certain moral aspects of life and that demands an appropriate position regarding the rights of its citizens to engage in personal relationships, protect individual life etc.

I believe a woman is entitled to her body as long as she does not expect the state and tax payers to pay for her abortion and I also believe science has made the issue less justifiable past a certain date.

As for same sex "marriage," I favor that as well but object to the use of the word though I believe people of the same sex should be entitled to all the rights and privileges of those engaged in 'historic' relationships. Call it a union.  Calling it marriage destroys the meaning of the word and words have consequences and should have universal meaning.  (See 3 below.)
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By widening the differences between the understanding of what is meant in the Iran Agreement, Khomenei assumes he will obtain even more concessions from a president lusting to do a deal and who constantly fails at diplomacy. (See 4 below.)
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Can we alter campaign madness and cost?  (See 5 below.)
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I got 86, or 10, right and am embarrassed. Should have done better!



NO TRICK QUESTIONS, JUST A LITTLE QUIZ TO SEE IF YOU’RE PAYING ATTENTION TO THE HEADLINES INSTEAD OF READING THE NATIONAL ENQUIRER.

This test shows results in a number of ways. The score results statistics at the end are interesting.  It surely indicates  the majority of Americans don't know what's going on.(Prof. Gruber was right, we are stupid.)
It's astonishing so many people got less than half right. The results say 80% of the (voting) public doesn't have a clue, and that's pretty scary.
There are no tricks here -- just a simple test to see if you are current on your information.        Test your knowledge with the challenge of 12 questions, then be ready to shudder when you see how others did:    
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Obama is going on the offense according to this report and will be aiming his poisoned darts at individual Republicans who cross his screen as obstructionists.

Since he cannot be re-elected he feels both peeved and liberated and in pure 'pissy fanny' fashion he is letting go with guns blazing. (See 6 below.)
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Dick
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1) Judith Miller Recants; Where's the Media?

In “The Story: A Reporter’s Journey,” which hit book store shelves Tuesday, April 7, former New York Times reporter Judith Miller revealed in the final chapter that she now believes that she was induced by then-Special Counsel Patrick J. Fitzgerald to give false testimony in the 2007 trial of I. “Lewis” Scooter Libby, former chief of staff to Vice President Dick Cheney.
Given that Fitzgerald’s three-and-a-half year-long investigation and prosecution of Libby riveted the nation’s capital and generated vast news coverage implying, when not outright declaring, that the Bush administration lied the nation into war, one might think that recantation of testimony by a pivotal prosecution witness would command attention and excite controversy.
Miller’s assertions, which I wrote about last week in a Wall Street Journal op-ed, are fascinating—and important. In a more extensive online-only essay, I reexamined the entire trial and concluded that Fitzgerald’s theory of the case was fundamentally flawed and that his unscrupulous conduct was not limited to withholding exculpatory evidence from Miller and the defense; I believe it extended to other prosecution witnesses as well. I also reviewed “The Story” for RCP. 
Although I had no illusions that my interest would be matched by the left-liberal media, I did expect that Miller’s claims about giving false testimony—and the consequent corruption of the jury verdict that found Libby guilty of obstruction of justice, making a false statement, and perjury—would spark at least a few days of debate. Perhaps I gave the establishment media too much credit.
True, hardly anyone remembers the details of the Valerie Plame leak investigation, including, for example, that Plame’s CIA employment was leaked by Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage; that leaking it was not a crime and did not harm national security, and that Libby was never charged with outing Plame or disclosing classified information, but with lying to federal investigators and a grand jury—rather than committing innocent errors of memory—about fragments of long-ago telephone conversations.
And I was aware that whatever the jury decided, many elite journalists believed that for his role in helping launch what they regarded as a foolish and destructive military adventure in Iraq, Libby deserved the $250,000 fine, the 30-month prison sentence (commuted by President Bush), and the 400 hours of community service to which Judge Reggie B. Walton sentenced him.
What I did not expect was that Miller’s revelation—along with the new reporting she did on the flawed evidence against Libby and the damage inflicted on American national security by Fitzgerald’s prosecution—would be given the silent treatment by the left-liberal media, beginning with the New York Times and the Washington Post.
It’s not that the Times and the Post were uninterested in the book. Terry McDermott, a former Los Angeles Times national correspondent, reviewed “The Story” in the Times. Mostly, McDermott maintained that Miller, despite accurately reporting that intelligence agencies throughout the West believed—it turned out incorrectly—that Saddam possessed chemical and biological weapons, deserved her 2005 dismissal. McDermott does not explain why many others at the Times and the Washington Post who reported as did Miller kept their jobs.
McDermott seeks to make quick work of Miller’s concluding chapter. He incorrectly states, “The final section of ‘The Story’ deals with Ms. Miller’s role in the Valerie Plame affair, her refusal to identify a source (for an article she never wrote), her jailing because of that refusal, and finally her forced resignation from The Times in 2005.” In fact, the section to which he refers is the penultimate one. But that’s the least of the troubles with McDermott’s summary of the end of Miller’s book.
The final section actually deals with Miller’s accusation that by withholding crucial evidence, prosecutor Fitzgerald tricked her into giving false testimony used to convict an innocent man. For Miller’s revelation, for the courage she showed in coming forward to admit her error, and for the significance of her error—to the Libby verdict, the Fitzgerald prosecution, and the endlessly repeated lie that the White House sought to punish Bush critic Joseph Wilson by outing his wife Valerie Plame—McDermott offers not a single word.
Washington Post media critic Erik Wemple agreed in his review with McDermott that Miller’s defense of her reporting on Iraqi WMD was unpersuasive. To reach this conclusion, Wemple took a rather anti-intellectual tack. He conceded that Miller’s Times articles contained appropriate caveats. But, he writes, “Note to Miller: People don’t read the caveats.”
Since he has exactly nothing to say about Miller’s account of the false testimony she gave in the Libby trial, one might wonder whether Wemple actually read Miller’s book to the end. Why else would Wemple choose not to write about Miller’s stunning disclosure that Libby lawyer Joseph Tate told her, “Fitzgerald had twice offered to drop all charges against Libby if his client would ‘deliver’ Cheney to him.”? 
In connection to United States v. Libby, journalists failing to do their jobs is nothing new. And journalists doing the jobs of politicians is old hat. 
The trial record provided ample reason to conclude that the prosecution failed to meet its burden of proving beyond a reasonable doubt that, as Fitzgerald’s indictment charged, Libby lied about snippets of telephone conversations with NBC’s Tim Russert, Time magazine’s Matthew Cooper, and Judy Miller. That the prosecution’s case was anything but airtight, however, would have been difficult to glean from the standard media coverage.
In fact, serious memory errors afflicted every prosecution witnesses. And the errors were consistently of a certain sort. The prosecution witnesses’ memories of conversations with Libby changed significantly, always to Libby’s detriment, as time passed—from initial FBI questioning in the fall of 2003, through grand jury testimony in 2004 and 2005, to the trial in 2007—and as they were increasingly subjected to questioning by Fitzgerald, who was named to head the investigation in December 2003, and his team. While the Wall Street Journal editorial page provided an honorable exception, the elite media generally treated the verdict reached by the jury on March 6, 2007, as gospel.
Among the more sober reactions to the Libby verdict emerging from the left-liberal media was the Washington Post’s March 7, 2007 editorial. It recognized that the controversy over the Plame leak “was remarkable for its lack of substance”; that Wilson’s allegations were false; that the trial “provided convincing evidence that there was no conspiracy to punish Mr. Wilson by leaking Ms. Plame’s identity—and no evidence that she was, in fact, covert”; and that “it would have been sensible for Mr. Fitzgerald to end his investigation after learning” that Armitage was the leaker. Yet despite a trial in which a parade of prosecution witnesses could not keep their stories straight, the Post asserted that the evidence that Libby lied was “strong” and “abundant” and condemned his lies as “reprehensible.”
Meanwhile, the Democratic Party’s highest ranking elected officials crowed that the verdict confirmed their ugliest suspicions about the White House.
“The testimony unmistakably revealed—at the highest levels of the Bush administration—a callous disregard in handling sensitive national security information and a disposition to smear critics of the war in Iraq,” proclaimed Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, even though the testimony revealed nothing of the kind. 
“It’s about time someone in the Bush administration has been held accountable for the campaign to manipulate intelligence and discredit war critics,” chimed in Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, repeating the long-discredited canard. He added that the  “trial revealed deeper truths about Vice President Cheney’s role in this sordid affair.” Reid never bothered to mention that the leak of Plame’s identity came not from Cheney’s staff—or even the White House— but from Armitage, who worked at the State Department.
Amplifying the Democratic leadership’s propaganda, the New York Times editorial page decried Libby’s conduct, which it declared involved much more than having been “caught lying to the FBI.” Libby, the Times asserted, “appears to have been trying to cover up a smear campaign that was orchestrated by his boss against the first person to unmask one of the many untruths that President Bush used to justify invading Iraq.” 
The Times editorial writers displayed as much unfamiliarity with the case as did Pelosi and Reid. Despite his sly insinuations, Fitzgerald provided not a speck of evidence that Vice President Cheney had orchestrated a smear campaign. Moreover, the Times editorial writers appeared to be as ignorant as Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Reid of the high-level bipartisan investigations of 2004 and 2005, which found that that in making its case for war, the Bush administration relied in good faith on intelligence that was only discovered to have been faulty after the Iraq invasion.
A few journalists—outstanding among them Christopher Hitchens at Slatesyndicated columnist Charles Krauthammer, and syndicated columnist Thomas Sowell—understood the incoherence of Fitzgerald’s case and the flimsiness of his evidence. Most mainstream commentary, however, lay somewhere between the Washington Post’s relative sobriety and the partisan blasts of Pelosi, Reid, and the New York Times. Nearly everyone, including the Washington Post, missed the pervasive memory failures of the witnesses who were summoned to show that Libby could not have possibly innocently misremembered bits and pieces of old telephone conversations--conversations that did not involve disclosures of classified information and which had no impact on national security.
By acknowledging her mistaken testimony in the Libby trial, Judith Miller has given the left-liberal media an opportunity to correct the profoundly flawed account it promulgated of Patrick Fitzgerald’s prosecution of Scooter Libby. The early indications at the New York Times and the Washington Post are not heartening. We could use more journalists with the guts and the integrity that Miller has displayed in setting the record straight.
Peter Berkowitz is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University. His writings are posted atwww.PeterBerkowitz.com and he can be followed on Twitter @BerkowitzPeter. 
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2) Clinton’s Real Opponent: Barack Obama


The president’s weak approval ratings in key states are a big problem for Hillary.




The two factors that might be most vital to Hillary Clinton’s chances—the identity of the eventual Republican nominee and the standing of President Obama—are elements over which she has little influence. It’s the second factor, Obama’s job approval rating, that is especially critical. And the state and national polling numbers present a contradictory story.
By our count, so far in 2015 (as of April 13) there have been 52 polls in 21 states that have reported approval and disapproval numbers for Obama. We analyzed those polls and found that, in the majority of them, Obama’s approval rating is worse than one might expect, given his national standing. This underperformance appears more pronounced in states with heavily white populations—including key swing states Iowa and New Hampshire.
Before we explore the inconsistent numbers, it’s worth asking why the job approval rating of a man who isn’t on the ballot matters so greatly for 2016.

While the sample size is small, no retiring president below 50 percent job approval nationally has passed the White House to his party’s nominee in the 75 years of the polling era. Obama’s approval rating, as of this writing, is around 45 percent (give or take), and his disapproval is about 50 percent. That’s not impressive, though it is up a bit from the low 40s where Obama was mired in national approval polling at the time of last year’s midterm election.

There isn’t a precise, absolute relationship between incumbent presidential approval and the election results. However, it’s a solid indicator of the likely outcome. Take a look at the table below, which shows the Gallup poll’s approval rating of the sitting president before the presidential election:
Year
Incumbent
Gallup Oct. to Election Day avg. (or last poll before election)
1952
Truman
32.0
1956
Eisenhower*@
68.0
1960
Eisenhower
61.5
1964
Johnson*#
74.0
1968
Johnson^
42.0
1972
Nixon*#
56.0
1976
Ford*#
45.0
1980
Carter*^
37.0
1984
Reagan*
56.0
1988
Reagan
52.5
1992
G.H.W. Bush*
33.5
1996
Clinton*
56.0
2000
Clinton
57.5
2004
G.W. Bush*
49.2
2008
G.W. Bush
26.5
2012
Obama*
50.8
*Incumbent seeking reelection
Last Gallup poll date
#June
@August
^September

With President Truman at 32 percent in November 1952, Democrat Adlai Stevenson had no real chance to win. President Johnson’s Gallup approval was 42 percent right before Election Day 1968, and Democrat Hubert Humphrey secured a mirror-image 42.7 percent of the vote. President Carter clocked in at 37 percent in November 1980, and received 41 percent of the vote. President George H.W. Bush was even lower (33.5 percent) at election time in 1992, sealing his fate, and his son George W. Bush was deep in the presidential cellar (26.5 percent) in 2008; the wonder is that John McCain garnered 45.6 percent of the vote.

Other times, when there’s a popular president leaving office, his party’s nominee hopes to secure the incumbent’s third term, such as Richard Nixon in 1960 as President Eisenhower’s surrogate or George H.W. Bush in 1988 as President Reagan’s chosen successor. Remarkably, Nixon failed to win even though Ike was at 61.5 percent approval at election time; by contrast, Bush was able to make the grade handily with Reagan holding steady at 52.5 percent in Gallup.

Then there is the odd case of Vice President Al Gore in 2000. Gore tried to run on the achievements of the Clinton Administration while keeping the scandal-tainted President Clinton at arm’s length—a mistake in retrospect, since an unleashed Bill Clinton, flying high at 57.5 percent job approval, could probably have won all-important Florida for Gore and might well have had some impact in Arkansas, New Hampshire, Ohio, Tennessee and West Virginia, all of which Gore lost. (Even if he still lost Florida, winning just New Hampshire would have put Gore in the White House.)

In 2016 it is guaranteed that likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton will embrace the president she served as Secretary of State because she needs a large turnout among Obama’s core minority and young voters. But hoping to win a larger portion of the white vote than Obama did in 2012 (39 percent), she will also gingerly try to put a little distance between her and less popular parts of the Obama record, stressing her intimate connection to a retrospectively well-remembered Democratic administration in the 1990s. Still, as Al Gore proved, the “I like him but I’m not like him” approach isn’t an easy balancing act.

The overall history lesson is crystal clear. Should Obama regain majority approval before the election, Clinton would probably benefit dramatically. While Obama scoring in the mid-to-high 40s isn’t ideal for the Democratic nominee, at that level he wouldn’t be an anvil tied to Clinton’s ankle. And if Obama becomes mired in the unpopularity swamp that characterized Truman, Johnson, and both Bushes, Clinton will have been defeated by Obama twice, once in the 2008 Democratic primaries and once in the 2016 general election.
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Here’s where the state and national polling disconnect comes in. Obama is not at 45 percent approval everywhere, not even in places where history tells us he probably should be.

In fact, what’s going on now is reminiscent of the late stages of the 2012 presidential race, when the national and state-level polls seemed to be telling inconsistent stories.

On the one hand, in an election that Obama won by about four percentage points, national surveys right before that election suggested the contest was almost a tie. In the final RealClearPolitics average of national polls, President Obama led by just 0.7 points. The final HuffPost Pollster estimate was slightly better for Obama, but only showed him up 1.5 points. Gallup’s final survey had Mitt Romney ahead by one point, and Gallup had projected Romney with a substantial lead throughout the final weeks of the campaign.
Yet oddly, at the very same time, Romney was lagging in critical swing states that he needed for victory.



Larry J. Sabato is university professor of politics and director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, which publishes the online, free Crystal Ball politics newsletter every Thursday, and a regular columnist for Politico MagazineHis book on the midterms and upcoming presidential election, The Surge: 2014's Big GOP Win and What It Means for the Next Presidential Election, will be published by Rowman & Littlefield and is available for pre-order.

The RCP Average currently has Mitt Romney up by 0.8 points nationally. He has held this lead fairly consistently ever since the first presidential debate.

Given what we know about how individual states typically lean with respect to the popular vote, a Republican enjoying a one-point lead nationally should expect a three-to-four-point lead in Florida, a two-to-three-point lead in Ohio, and a tie in Iowa. Instead we see Romney ahead by roughly one point in Florida, and down by two in Ohio and Iowa.

Indeed, Obama held modest polling leads in every swing state on the eve of the election, with the exception of two: North Carolina, which the president ended up losing, and Florida, where Obama was either trailing or tied, but which he won by a point in a mild surprise. In other words, the state polls seemed to be a better metric than the national ones.
Fast forward to this month. The state and national polls are saying different things about Obama’s approval rating, and the variance is quite pronounced in some states that should be very competitive in 2016.

Here’s what we did: Let’s assume that the national polls are correct and that President Obama’s national approval rating is about 45 percent, and his disapproval rating is about 50 percent—his current numbers in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls. That’s a net difference of -5.

Let’s also assume that, generally speaking, Obama’s approval rating rises and falls relatively consistently across all 50 states. This allows us to use the president’s national net approval and his 2012 margin, winning or losing, in each state to calculate what we call the president’s “expected net approval” for a state-level poll.

Our baseline is Obama’s national four-point victory in 2012, which is about what his net approval rating was on Election Day. There is no better “poll of approval” for a sitting president than reelection results. So if Obama was +4 in November 2012 and now he’s -5, he has suffered a minus 9-point swing overall. We can then apply this expected swing to individual states. For instance, Obama won Ohio by three points in 2012. Applying the -9 swing from then to now, his “expected” approval in Ohio would be -6.

Based on our technique comparing the actual state net approval to the “expected” approval, a large majority of surveys in 2015 find the president with higher levels of disapproval than we might expect if there were actually a uniform swing across the country. Of the 52 polls in our data set, 32 (62 percent) found Obama’s approval to be lower than the “expected” approval would anticipate. Only 17 (33 percent) rated the president higher than the “expected,” while three exactly matched expectations.

As one could predict, there is a strong correlation of .78 between the expected net approval and Obama’s actual net approval in state polling. The expected net approval serves as an anticipatory index of sorts, incorporating Obama’s 2012 performance and his current national approval into its calculation. On average, the 52 polls conducted this year showed the president’s state-level approval rating was a little more than two points worse than expected.

A handful of polls are relative outliers, some of which came from Quinnipiac University. The Connecticut-based pollster provided 15 of the 52 surveys in our data set, more than one of every four, and in all but one poll the president’s state-level approval was lower than the expected approval. So perhaps Quinnipiac is presenting an overly negative view of the president’s job approval, and the sheer frequency of their surveys might be skewing the data. Removing those polls from our data set would leave a relatively equal number of polls with lower (18) and higher (16) “expected” approval.

But it’s just as possible that Quinnipiac is spot-on, and Obama’s approval really is comparatively worse in some key 2016 swing states. For instance, Quinnipiac’s two polls in Ohio found the president’s net approval five and seven points worse than the expected net approval; in Iowa, seven and 14 points worse; and in Pennsylvania, seven and 11 points worse.

Yet non-Quinnipiac surveys have found gloomy 2015 numbers for the president in a couple key swing states that might cause apprehension for Democrats: heavily white Iowa and New Hampshire. The three New Hampshire polls we included were not from Quinnipiac, and they showed Obama doing an average of eight points worse than expected in net approval. In Iowa, five polls (two from Quinnipiac) showed Obama doing eight points worse than expected, seven points worse in the non-Quinnipiac surveys.
***
According to the 2012 exit poll, 93 percent of the voters in both Iowa and New Hampshire were white, and they were the only states where Obama won a majority of the white vote. Other analysts have noted an increase in the GOP’s share of the vote among some white voters in these states since 2012, and the 2015 Obama approval numbers could be a further indication of this change.

Are whiter states inclined to be less approving of the president? If we take a net approval average (weighted by a poll’s sample size) for each state’s group of polls in our data set—giving us one net approval number for each of the 21 states—we can then regress that weighted net approval average on Obama’s 2012 margin and the non-Hispanic white percentage of the population, as measured by the Census Bureau’s 2013 American Community Survey. Controlling for the 2012 margin, and thus a state’s baseline political leaning, we find that a one percentage point increase in a state’s non-Hispanic white population is associated with a -0.2 point change in Obama’s net approval.

The change in net approval isn’t drastic by any means—the 95% confidence interval falls between -0.4 and -.01, so almost 0—but it does confirm our suspicions to a certain extent. When you combine the lower support among whites for Obama nationally with what we know about race and political affiliation in America today, it makes sense that the whiter a state is, the lower the president’s current job approval.

If Republicans are able to capture an even larger share of the 2016 white vote than Romney did in 2012 (59 percent), this could have major consequences in the Electoral College. The 2012 exit poll found that 72 percent of the national electorate was white. But of the 10 states with the closest margins, six had whiter electorates than the nation as a whole—Colorado (78 percent), Iowa (93 percent), New Hampshire (93 percent), Ohio (79 percent), Pennsylvania (78 percent), and Wisconsin (86 percent). Add this group’s 67 electoral votes to Mitt Romney’s 2012 total and the Republican could theoretically secure 273 electoral votes and the presidency.

These states could provide a path to victory for the 2016 GOP nominee, though he will have to break the party’s long dry spells in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. But lower white support for the Democratic presidential nominee could at least open the door to Republicans in all of these states.

As in 2012, election analysts will have to watch both the national and state trends. As of now, with regard to Obama’s job approval, the national polls are generally better for the Democrats than the state surveys, a reversal of the situation two and a half years ago. This is a trend worth monitoring as the presidential race takes shape.

Larry J. Sabato is university professor of politics and director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, which publishes the online, free Crystal Ball politics newsletter every Thursday, and a regular columnist for Politico MagazineHis book on the midterms and upcoming presidential election, The Surge: 2014's Big GOP Win and What It Means for the Next Presidential Election, will be published by Rowman & Littlefield and is available for pre-order.

Kyle Kondik is managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan political newsletter produced by the University of Virginia Center for Politics. He also directs the center’s Washington, D.C., office.

Geoffrey Skelley is associate editor at Sabato’s Crystal Ball. 

2a)

She rides by van: The Hillary Clinton launch

By Charles Krauthammer

See Hillary ride in a van! Watch her meet everyday Americans! Witness herordering a burrito bowl at Chipotle! Which she did wearing shades, as did her chief aide Huma Abedin, yielding security-camera pictures that made them look (to borrow from Karl Rove) like fugitives on the lam, wanted in seven states for a failed foreign policy.
There’s something surreal about Hillary Clinton’s Marie Antoinette tour, sampling cake and commoners. But what else can she do? After Barack Obama, she’s the best-known political figure in America. She has papal name recognition. Like Napoleon and Cher, she’s universally known by her first name. As former queen consort, senator and secretary of state, she has spent a quarter-century in the national spotlight — more than any modern candidate.
This quality of purposeful abstractness makes everything sound and seem contrived. It’s not really her fault. True, she’s got enough genuine inauthenticity to go around —decades of positioning, framing, parsing, dodging — but the perception is compounded by the obvious staginess of the gigantic political apparatus that surrounds her and directs her movements.She doesn’t just get media coverage; she gets meta-coverage. The staging is so obvious that actual events disappear. The story is their symbolism — campaign as semiotics.
Why is she running in the first place? Because it’s the next inevitable step in her career path. But that’s not as damning as it seems. It can be said of practically every presidential candidate. The number of conviction politicians — those who run not to be someone but to do something — is exceedingly small. In our lifetime: Ronald Reagan. And arguably, Barack Obama, although with him (as opposed to Reagan) a heavy dose of narcissistic self-fulfillment is admixed with genuine ideological conviction.
Hillary Clinton’s problem is age, not chronological but political. She’s been around for so long that who can really believe she suddenly has been seized with a new passion to champion, as she put it in Iowa, “the truckers that I saw on I-80 as I was driving here”?
Or developed a new persona. She will, of course, go through the motions. Her team will produce a “message,” one of the most corrosive, debased words in the lexicon of contemporary politics — an alleged synonym for belief or conviction, it signifies nothing more than a branded marketing strategy.
She will develop policies. In Iowa, she’d already delivered her top four, one of which is to take unaccountable big money out of politics. This is rather precious, considering that her supporters intend to raise $2.5 billion for 2016 alone and that the Clinton Foundation is one of the most formidable machines ever devised for extracting money from the rich, the powerful and the unsavory.
She will try to sell herself as champion of the little guy. Not easy to do when you and your husband have for the last 25 years made limo-liberal Davos-world your home. Hence the van trek to Iowa, lest a Gulfstream 450 invade the visual.
Clinton’s unchangeability, however, is the source of her uniqueness as a candidate: She’s a fixed point. She is who she is. And no one expects — nor would anyone really believe — any claimed character change.
Accordingly, voters’ views about her are equally immutable. The only variable, therefore, in the 2016 election lies on the other side, where the freedom of action is almost total. It all depends on who the Republicans pick and how the candidate performs.
Hillary is a stationary target. You know what you’re getting. She has her weaknesses: She’s not a great campaigner, she has that unshakable inauthenticity problem and, regarding the quality most important to getting elected, she is barely, in the merciless phrase of candidate Obama in 2008, “likable enough.”
But she has her strengths: discipline, determination, high intelligence, great energy. With an immense organization deploying an obscene amount of money. And behind that, a Democratic Party united if not overly enthusiastic.
That’s why 2016 is already shaping up as the most unusual open-seat presidential race in our time: one candidate fixed and foregone, the other yet to emerge from a wild race of a near-dozen contenders with none exceeding 20 percent.
So brace yourself for a glorious Republican punch-up, punctuated by endless meta-coverage of the Democrats’ coronation march. After which, we shall decide the future of our country. Just the way the Founders drew it up.
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A few days ago I wrote a piece warning Republicans of the coming culture wars, led by Hillary Clinton, who will make the “war on women” a centerpiece of her presidential campaign. Liberals believe they can use social issues to bludgeon conservatives into submission and then defeat.

There’s no question that in some cultural areas, like gay marriage, traditionalists are losing ground. But when it comes to the issue of unborn life, which has profoundly more important moral implications, notable progress has been made, and that shouldn’t be forgotten.

Start with the number of abortions, which has dropped from more than 1.6 million in 1990 to 1.06 million based on the latest data. The abortion rate in the United States is now at its lowest point since 1973. And public opinion continues to shift in a pro-life direction. For example, a recent YouGov poll found that 52 percent of those surveyed think that life begins at conception and 66 percent believe babies in the womb are people. A solid majority support restrictions on abortion, support for late-term abortion remains extremely rare, and more women than men support 20-week abortion ban laws. (Gallup’s data on historical trends, charting opinion since 1996 shows the nation has moved in a more pro-life direction.)

Despite this, the head of the Democratic National Committee, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, issued a statement the other day indicating that she believes there should be no restrictions on abortion whatsoever–which as I understand it is the de facto view held by Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Nancy Pelosi, and most every leading Democrat. Which means that the truly radical position–a person should have the right to abort any child at any point for any reasons–is the mainstream position of the Democratic Party. (Mr. Obama, while serving as a state senator in Illinois, opposed a bill that would have restricted “abortions” after an infant is born alive. See here and here.)

This offers Republicans the opportunity to advance a culture of life in a way that is principled and shows genuine compassion and care for the most vulnerable members of the human community.

This debate pits utilitarianism against the belief in the inherent human dignity of every individual. The utilitarian approach is an assertion of the power of the strong over the weak; it therefore treats human beings as means rather than as ends. By contrast, the belief in human dignity is rooted in the Jewish and Christian tradition that regards the protection of innocent lives as one of the primary purposes of a just society. A utilitarian society will be dramatically less humane than a society that honors the principle of human dignity and extends it to those in every season and station in life.

The iconic liberal Hubert Humphrey put things this way: “It was once said that the moral test of government is how that government treats those who are in the dawn of life, the children; those who are in the twilight of life, the elderly; and those who are in the shadows of life, the sick, the needy and the handicapped.”

These are more than lovely words; they speak directly to the moral duties of the state. It seems to me that Republicans and conservatives, even in the current cultural climate, can make a powerful and resonant argument: Unborn children are at the dawn of life, and they deserve the protection of government. They will provide protection to unborn children, even as those on the left believe it is a sacred right to target them.
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4)- Iran-U.S. differences over nuclear deal widen
By Oren Derell
Two weeks after world powers and Iran announced a framework agreement to curb Iran's nuclear program, widening gaps between the two sides are emerging.
As negotiators prepare to start working on a final agreement in Vienna next Wednesday, the United States and Iran are at odds on key issues that form the basis of the deal unveiled April 2 in Switzerland.
They include when economic sanctions on Iran will be lifted, the number of machines Iran can keep to process uranium and length of the final agreement.
The six world powers — the United States, Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany — and Iran have set a deadline of June 30 for a comprehensive deal that would curb Iran's nuclear program and ensure it is for peaceful uses, as Iran claims. In return, sanctions that have crippled Iran's economy would be lifted.
That will not be an easy task, given the sizable differences that must be resolved.
"There is a difficult path ahead of us towards the final deal," Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said in the northern Iranian city of Rasht, Iran's Tasnim News Agencyreported Thursday. But there seems to be an international "will" to conclude a deal, he said.
Tuesday, The U.S. Senate agreed on a bipartisan bill that would give it the final say on any deal, adding a further complication to the negotiations. The White House said President Obama would sign that bill, which would require a two-thirds vote to kill a final agreement.

During a press conference on Friday, President Obama said he thought that Sens. Bob Corker, R-Tenn., and Ben Cardin, D-Md., reached a "reasonable compromise."
The president said he had two concerns. One was to make sure congressional actions did not derail chances for the best deal possible, and that Secretary of State John Kerry would not be "hobbled" by lawmakers' actions. He said he believes the process will not be tripped up in this way, "so that checked off one box."
The second concern arose from suggestions that a president as a rule of thumb must get approval from Congress to negotiate political agreements.
"That is not the case," Obama said. "This is not a formal treaty being envisioned. And the President of the United States, whether Democrat or Republican, traditionally has been able to enter into political agreements that are binding with other countries without congressional approval."
The president said that if neither senator makes any additional provisions or amendments, he will sign it.
Many U.S. lawmakers are skeptical of negotiations with Iran because they don't trust it to abide by the terms of any agreement it signs. Likewise, Iranian politicians inTehran accuse the U.S. Congress of trying to sabotage an agreement and say Iran's actions to satisfy a deal should be reversible if world powers fail to live up to their obligations.
Based on recent comments from U.S. and Iranian leaders, as well as fact sheets on the interim deal issued separately by the United States and Iran, glaring differences appear. The main ones:
•Sanctions: The fact sheet issued by Iran's parliament Wednesday said that when the comprehensive deal begins, "all the U.S. and (European Union) sanctions will be terminated, and Iran will start fulfilling" its obligations under the deal. The White House said sanctions would be suspended in phases as Iran meets the terms of the deal and its actions are verified by United Nations inspectors.
•Centrifuges: Iran's fact sheet said Iran should keep operating about 10,000 centrifuges used to process uranium fuel. The White House said the framework agreement calls for Iran to scale back to 5,060 operating centrifuges to make it more difficult to produce fuel for a nuclear bomb.
•Fordow: Iran's fact sheet said a bunkered facility under a mountain in Fordow would continue uranium enrichment and research and development activities to prepare for more advanced machines in five years. The White House said Fordow would be converted to R&D that does not involve uranium enrichment.
•Inspections: The White House said U.N. inspectors would have access to "all of Iran's nuclear facilities," including undeclared sites. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei flatly rejected inspections of military sites.
•Duration: Iran's parliament called for a five-year limit on the nation's nuclear program. The White House said some aspects of the deal would last 10 years, and others would last 25 years.
Mark Dubowitz of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a skeptic of an emerging deal, expressed worries that Obama will make new concessions to Iran to reach an agreement. "President Obama wants a deal and will back 'creative negotiations,' in his own words, to bridge remaining gaps on these issues," he said.
Kelsey Davenport, director of non-proliferation policy at the Arms Control Association, which supports a deal with Iran, said the Iranian fact sheet was produced by a hard-line opposition in response to the planned U.S. Senate review of the agreement and does not reflect the position of Iran's negotiators or Khamenei.
"These are tough decisions for the negotiators to make," she said, "because each side needs to be sure they can sell a final agreement back home."
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5)--

Our Endless Presidential Campaigns

With some 570 days left until Election Day, the race for president has very much started—to the dismay of many Americans, writes Michael Barone

The nominating process is the one big part of our political system that was not envisioned by the Founding Fathers. Pictured, the floor at Democratic convention in July 1960.ENLARGE
The nominating process is the one big part of our political system that was not envisioned by the Founding Fathers. Pictured, the floor at Democratic convention in July 1960. PHOTO: RALPH CRANE/THE LIFE PICTURE COLLECTION/GETTY IMAGES
On March 23, Ted Cruz announced he is running for president in a packed auditorium at Liberty University in Lynchburg, Va. On April 7, Rand Paul announced he is running for president amid the riverboat décor of the Galt House hotel in Louisville, Ky. On April 12,Hillary Clinton announced she is running for president in a brief segment of a two-minute video. On April 13, Marco Rubio announced he is running before a cheering crowd at the Freedom Tower in Miami. And these are just the official announcements.
Jeb Bush made it known in December that he is interested in running. Scott Walker’s rousing speech at the Freedom Summit in Des Moines, Iowa, on Jan. 24 left no doubt that he will enter the race. Chris Christie’s appearance in New Hampshire last week strongly suggests the same. Previous presidential candidates Mike Huckabee,Rick Perry and Rick Santorum seem almost certain to run. Pediatric surgeon Ben Carson is reportedly ready to announce his run on May 4 at the Detroit Music Hall.
With some 570 days left until Election Day 2016, the race for president is very much under way—to the dismay of a great many Americans. They find the news coverage of the candidates tiresome (what did Hillary order at Chipotle?), are depressed by the negative campaigning that is inevitable in an adversarial process, and dread the onslaught of political TV ads. Too much too soon!
Hillary Clinton strolled along the main downtown street of Le Claire, Iowa, with Mayor Bob Scannell on April 14, followed by a group of local onlookers and media. ENLARGE
Hillary Clinton strolled along the main downtown street of Le Claire, Iowa, with Mayor Bob Scannell on April 14, followed by a group of local onlookers and media. PHOTO: KEVIN E. SCHMIDT/QUAD-CITY TIMES/QUAD-CITY TIMES/ZUMA PRESS
They also note that other countries somehow manage to select their heads of government much more quickly. The U.K. has a general election campaign going on right now. It began on March 30, when the queen, on the advice of the prime minister, dissolved Parliament, and voting will take place on May 7. That’s 38 days later. Britons are complaining that the electioneering goes on too long.
American presidential campaigns did not always begin so soon, but they have for more than a generation now. As a young journalist, Sidney Blumenthal (in recent decades a consigliere to the Clintons) wrote quite a good book titled “The Permanent Campaign.” It was published in 1980. Mr. Blumenthal described what was then a relatively new phenomenon.
Buttons supporting Marco Rubio were for sale after he announced his bid for the White House at the Freedom Tower in Miami April 13.  ENLARGE
Buttons supporting Marco Rubio were for sale after he announced his bid for the White House at the Freedom Tower in Miami April 13. PHOTO: CARLO ALLEGRI/REUTERS

Why are American presidential campaigns so lengthy? And is there anything that can be done to compress them to a bearable timetable?
One clue to the answers: The presidential nominating process, the weakest part of our political system, is also the one part that was not envisioned by the Founding Fathers. The framers of the Constitution created a powerful presidency, confident (justifiably, as it turned out) that its first incumbent, George Washington, would set precedents that would guide the republic for years to come.
But they did not foresee that even in Washington’s presidency, Americans would develop political parties, which they abhorred. The Founders expected that later presidents would be chosen, usually by the House of Representatives, from local notables promoted by different states in the Electoral College. They did not expect that the Federalist and Republican parties would coalesce around two national leaders—Washington’s vice president, John Adams, and Washington’s first secretary of state, Thomas Jefferson—in the close elections of 1796 and 1800.
The issue then became: When a president followed George Washington’s precedent and retired after two terms, how would the parties choose nominees, in a republic that, from the start, was regionally, ethnically and religiously diverse?
In 1808 and 1816, Jefferson’s successors, James Madison and James Monroe, were chosen in caucuses held by members of Congress who belonged to their Republican party. But by 1824, just about every politician was a Republican, and four serious candidates ran. A lightly attended caucus nominated Treasury Secretary William Crawford, whom Monroe loathed and who had suffered a disabling stroke. John Quincy Adams, Andrew Jackson and Henry Clay ran anyway, and in the four-way race, no candidate got a majority in the Electoral College.
The election went to the House of Representatives, where Clay, then speaker, swung enough votes to elect Adams. Jackson regarded that as a corrupt bargain, spent four years campaigning and soundly defeated Adams in 1828. That led to the emergence of a new two-party politics which, after major disturbances in the 1850s, has endured ever since.
Andrew Jackson delivers a speech from the driver's seat of his coach on his journey to Washington in 1828. Engraving from 'Harper's Weekly,’ 1881.ENLARGE
Andrew Jackson delivers a speech from the driver's seat of his coach on his journey to Washington in 1828. Engraving from 'Harper's Weekly,’ 1881. PHOTO: UNIVERSAL HISTORY ARCHIVE/GETTY IMAGES

How would the parties choose presidential nominees? The answer was provided by the short-lived Anti-Masonic party, which held a national convention with state delegates in September 1831—more than a year before the general election—and nominated longtime Attorney General William Wirt, who (as it happened) was not anti-Masonic. In December 1831, Jackson’s opponents held a National Republican convention and nominated Clay. In response, Jackson’s supporters convened the first Democratic national convention—there have since been 45 more of them—where they nominated the adroit political operative Martin Van Buren to be the running mate for their hero.
In 1836, the Democrats nominated Van Buren for president, while the newly named Whigs avoided a national convention and nominated regional candidates. But in December 1839, the Whigs held a convention in Harrisburg, Pa., and in February 1856, the Republicans (having replaced the Whigs as the Democrats’ main rivals) held their first convention in Pittsburgh.
The national conventions solved the problem resulting from the tension between the importance of the presidential office created by the Founders and the persistence of the political parties they dreaded. State parties operated largely independently of each other over most of a four-year presidential term. National conventions were a way for them to come together, and, unlike the party caucuses in Congress, the conventions provided representation for every state and district.

Schisms within state parties posed problems for national conventions and their credentials committees, beginning in 1835, when Democrats split Pennsylvania’s votes between two contending factions. And platform fights could tear parties apart. The 1924 Democratic convention in New York’s Madison Square Garden (when it was still facing Madison Square) rejected a platform plank condemning the Ku Klux Klan by the astonishingly thin margin of a fraction of one vote and took 103 ballots to nominate a candidate for president.
They also allowed the parties to develop their own rules, reflecting their own special character. Democrats, long split between the rural South and big cities such as New York, required nominees to get two-thirds of a convention’s votes until Franklin Roosevelt,facing no challenge in 1936, changed the rule. The less fissiparous Whigs and Republicans required only a majority. All three parties allowed state delegations to vote by the unit rule, giving all of their votes to the candidate favored by a majority of the delegation.
The newspaper coverage of that convention, notably by H.L. Mencken for the Baltimore Sun, is still savored by political junkies—the delegates sweltering in those pre-air-conditioning days and nights, enduring endless speeches, demonstrations and roll calls. Political reporters still occasionally yearn for the conventions of yore, with their multiple ballots, favorite-son candidates, votes held back in early ballots and negotiations in smoke-filled rooms.

But those quaint customs existed for a reason. For more than a century, the national conventions were a communications medium, the one place where support for candidates could be accurately gauged, the one forum in which genuine bargaining could take place. Politicians were reluctant to negotiate in writing, and until the 1960s, Americans rarely did business on long-distance telephone calls or traveled around the country on jet aircraft. So political bargaining had to wait until they got off the train in the convention city.
The result was that no one knew how much support candidates had until the first roll call was completed. Going into the 1940 Republican national convention, the detail-mindedThomas Dewey thought he was near the 501-vote majority, but he had only 360 on the first ballot, and he lost on the sixth to the dark horse Wendell Willkie. John Kennedy wasn’t sure he had the votes in 1960 in Los Angeles; he got over the top only with the votes of Wyoming, the last state on the alphabetical roll call.
Technology and politics combined to deprive the national conventions of their monopoly as a communications medium more than four decades ago. Long-distance telephone and jet travel made preconvention bargaining feasible.
Kennedy’s key victories in the 1960 Wisconsin and West Virginia primaries inspired others to challenge the traditional power brokers. Barry Goldwater’s victory over Nelson Rockefeller in the June 1964 California Republican primary ended the quarter-century dominance of Republican conventions by the party’s New York-based liberal establishment. Eugene McCarthy’s near-victory over Lyndon Johnson in the March 1968 New Hampshire Democratic primary shocked the traditional Democrats. Suddenly, presidential campaigns, which up through the 1950s started after the June or July conventions and got into gear only after Labor Day, were starting much earlier in the year.
In the early 1970s, the campaign calendar was transformed by the reform commission authorized by the 1968 Democratic convention and first headed by George McGovern(who would win the party’s nomination in 1972). The new rules prodded most states to hold primaries and, for Democrats, established quotas for black, female and younger delegates. The rules were rejiggered by successive Democratic commissions, at a time when Democrats controlled most state legislatures. (With most state legislatures now in the hands of Republicans, changes in the current cycle have been engineered in large part by Republican National Chairman Reince Priebus.)
Under these new arrangements, delegates were no longer closed-mouth political insiders but declared supporters selected by candidates’ campaigns—which made it possible for the media to do delegate counts well before conventions started. This sort of analysis was pioneered by Martin Plissner of CBS News in 1968, and it proved its mettle in the close Ford-Reagan contest for the Republican nomination in 1976. With the stakes visible so much earlier, these changes meant, inevitably, that campaigns would start earlier and last longer.
Some nostalgists long for a return to the old convention system and lament the rules changes that, they argue, prevent wise political veterans from choosing enlightened and inspiring leaders. But by the 1960s, the party insiders were out of sync with their parties’ changing constituencies. The key blocs of the Democratic Party identified by Theodore White in his classic “The Making of the President 1960” were losing sway: Big-city bosses faded in influence as voters moved to the suburbs, private-sector unions began their long decline in membership and Southern conservatives started to leave the party altogether. As for Republicans, the New York-based liberals who dominated conventions from 1940 to 1960 were supplanted by varying shades of conservatives from the Sunbelt and points west.
Today it isn’t possible, even with a field of candidates as large as this cycle’s Republican pack, to have a classically brokered convention. The probing and negotiation that used to be confined to the convention week is already going on invisibly all around us, in videos and emails and tweets, and it has been for months. It cannot be stopped without banning cellphones, jet airliners and the Internet.
So what can be done to make the permanent campaign less permanent? Proposals for a quick national primary or sets of primaries are going nowhere. Previous rules changes tended to lengthen the process. The attempt by the GOP’s Mr. Priebus to compress the calendar—by confining the first four contests to February, limiting debates and holding the Republican convention in July—is a small step in shortening it. If state parties and legislatures cooperate, as seems likely but not certain, the Iowa caucus won't be held, as in 2008 and 2012, on the ninth day of Christmas.
But the prize is too great, the competition too intense (well, maybe not among Democrats this cycle), and the nation and the parties too large and diverse for the process to be substantially abbreviated. Candidates will start early, whatever the law says.
And a long campaign does test candidates’ skill and endurance—and give millions of people a chance to participate. Maybe it’s worth taking an unpleasantly long time to choose the person to fill an office whose dimensions were designed for George Washington.
Mr. Barone is senior political analyst for the Washington Examiner, a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and co-author of “The Almanac of American Politics 1972-2014.”
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6) Obama's New Political Strategy: Attack Individual Republicans

With a tone of outrage and eye-rolling dismissiveness, President Barack Obama and his White House team are working out their aggressions on Republicans. Well into the final quarter of Obama's presidency the White House approach is, if you can't join 'em, beat 'em.

Even with a whiff of bipartisanship in the air, the president is going on offense and building on a strategy employed since Democrats lost control of the Senate. Disagree with a Republican? The White House approach is to single a lawmaker out, pick a fight and don't mince words.


In just the past week, the president and his spokesman have targeted Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Republican Sens. John McCain and Charles Grassley, on topics from climate change to the Iran nuclear deal to the delayed confirmation of attorney general nominee Loretta Lynch.
This is a White House unleashed, forgoing niceties for the kind of blunt talk some of Obama's allies have been demanding for some time. But the rhetoric carries risks of sounding peevish and signals that a president who once ran on the promise of changing the tone in Washington has fully embraced its political combat.

On Friday, Obama delivered a testy lecture to Republicans, decrying the long wait Lynch has faced since she was nominated in early November.

"Enough. Enough!" he said, addressing Senate Republicans. "This is embarrassing, a process like this."
Last Saturday, Obama hit McCain especially hard, after his 2008 presidential rival declared a major setback in the Iran nuclear talks after Iran's supreme leader, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, demanded that sanctions against Tehran had to be lifted immediately after a deal went into place. (The preliminary deal says the sanctions will be lifted as Iran proves it is complying with limits on its nuclear program.)


Obama cast McCain's criticism as an assault on the credibility of Secretary of State John Kerry.

"That's an indication of the degree to which partisanship has crossed all boundaries," Obama said. 

"That's a problem. It needs to stop."

He went on: "We have Mitch McConnell trying to tell the world, oh, don't have confidence in the U.S. government's abilities to fulfill any climate change pledge that we might make."

On Thursday, White House spokesman Josh Earnest singled out Grassley, declaring comments he made about the Lynch vote "duplicitous."

Asked how harsh words might help his cause, Earnest replied: "Being nice has gotten us a 160-day delay. So maybe after they look up 'duplicitous' in the dictionary we'll get a different result."
It was the kind of "ouch" moment seldom heard from the White House.
Republicans have their own eye-rolling response.

"We're used it," said McConnell, whose jousts with Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid are legion. "We used to get it from the Democratic leader routinely."

Still, Pat Griffin, who was legislative director in the Clinton administration, said the tone from the White House dovetails with the aggressive strategy Obama has set since his party lost control of the Senate in November and put Congress in Republican hands.

"I think the president since the election has kept these guys on their heels," Griffin said. Obama and his aides "have come to understand that you don't get the attention of these guys and the attention of the country without having some edge."

Republicans maintain Obama would be better off working on bipartisan efforts, such as trade. Top lawmakers on Thursday revealed a bipartisan agreement to give Obama authority to negotiate trade deals without having to face delays in Congress. But many Democrats oppose such deals, fearing they will cost jobs or lower environmental standards.

"Rather than spending so much time criticizing people like Chuck Grassley and myself, he ought to be out there lining up the Democratic votes for trade promotion authority," McConnell said in an interview Friday. "This is a time for presidential leadership."

As for Lynch, McConnell said, "The cheap shots at Sen. Grassley were particularly inappropriate."
Lynch's confirmation has been delayed because McConnell has wanted to pass a sexual trafficking bill through the Senate first. That bill has been held up because of Democratic objections to anti-abortion language in the bill. McConnell predicted the dispute would be resolved next week, opening the way for a vote on Lynch.

For many Democratic allies of the White House, Obama's confrontational talk could have come even sooner.

"If you're sitting at the White House looking at Republicans on Capitol Hill, especially on the House side, you can't expect either much respect from them or a willingness to get much done," said Jim Manley, a Democratic strategist and former top aide to Reid. "Point two, as we move into the primary season, the base is looking for a more combative tone from the White House as well."

The last two years of a second term are especially liberating for presidents. They don't face re-election and they don't feel they have much to lose legislatively by going on the offensive.

"It feels good to do that when you have been bottled up," said Matt Bennett, a veteran of the Clinton White House.

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