Wednesday, June 26, 2013

Obama Slipping, Syrian Crisis Escalating.



Does the above sort of put in focus Obama versus Putin.  Guess who is who.



It must be tough for a narcissistic egoist like Obama to have his face rubbed in the sand.

Uncle Sam should be smarting as well. I guess that is what happens when a community organizer tries to play president and his opponent is a KGB  black belt. 
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Obama and Kerry to Israel :  'Please negotiate with those who want to destroy you and we will protect your back like we are doing in Syria, with Iran . '

Response from Netanyahu:  Thanks but seems you can't even retrieve your own citizen from Putin.'  (See 1 below.)
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GDP for the first quarter was below estimates and perversely the market was excited that America is not growing rapidly.  Why is this so?  Because it meant pressure on The Fed to stuff the economy with more printed money remained.  In essence, getting off the Fed induced bull market had proven risky after some 500 or so point decline.

The market's reaction is understandable but, in essence, the entire situation can be likened to taking candy from a baby,the baby cries so you give the candy back to the baby and eventually the baby's teeth rot.  
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Prospects of an unwanted confrontation over Syria escalate.  (See 2 below.)
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Obama's slipping influence getting wider recognition. (See 3 below.)
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Dick
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1)

Poll: Most Israeli Arabs 

Support Violent Uprising


Most Israeli Arabs oppose a Jewish majority, support a Palestinian uprising and want Iran to have nukes.

About 58% of the Arab citizens of Israel say that the Palestinian Authority Arabs would be justified in starting a violent rebellion (“intifada”) if the diplomatic process does not advance. A similar percentage advocate an “intifada” by Israeli Arab citizens if their situation does not improve considerably, according to a poll, which was carried out by Prof. Sami Samoha of Haifa University, with the Israeli Democracy Institute.

The views are in line with the call Monday by an Arab Knesset Member, for an Arab intifada inside Israel.

The poll shows that 63% of Israel's Arab citizens think Iran should continue its nuclear development, despite the evidence that Iran seeks Israel's destruction through nuclear weapons.

About 54 percent of the Arabs prefer Israel over any other country as a place to love. And yet, 70% do not accept Israel's right to maintain a Jewish majority.

While 70% of the Arabs say that the government is treating them like second-class citizens, a full 72% would like the Arab parties in the Knesset to join the coalition – although the Arab MKs themselves oppose this move.
Prof. Samoha said that while the opinions in the Arab sector have become more extreme, “the red lines have not yet been crossed.” 

However, he warned, “a continued deterioration of relations could cause disquiet and instability.”
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2)Russia evacuates Tartus, also military, diplomatic personnel from Syria. High war alert in Israel

Shortly after  DEBKA aired a special video on the Syrian war’s widening circle, Moscow announced Wednesday June 26,  the evacuation which had begun Friday of all military and diplomatic personnel from Syria was now complete, including the Russian naval base at Tartus.

“Russia decided to withdraw its personnel because of the risks from the conflict in Syria, as well as the fear of an incident involving the Russian military that could have larger consequences,” said a defense ministry official in Moscow. He stressed that a 16-ship naval task force in the eastern Mediterranean remains on post and arms shipments, including anti-air weapons, would continue to the Syrian government in keeping with former contracts.

In another sign of an impending escalation in Syria, the Israeli Golan brigade staged Wednesday an unannounced war maneuver on the Golan, attended by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and top army chiefs. In London, Prime Minister David Cameron called the government’s National Security Council into session in Downing Street on Syria. Opposition leader Ed Milliband was invited to attend the meeting, a custom observed only when issues of the highest security importance are discussed. What Next?

The sullen confrontation between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Barack Obama at the G8 Summit in Northern Ireland last week condemned Syria to five months of escalating, unresolved vicious warfare – that is until the two leaders meet again in September.

For now, tempers are heating up between Washington and Moscow on Syria and other things too, notably the elusive American fugitive Edward Snowden.
US and Israeli intelligence watchers see the Syrian crisis entering seven ominous phases:
1. A five-month bloodbath centering on the battle for Aleppo, a city of 2.2 million inhabitants.
The Syrian army plus allies and the fully-mobilized opposition will hurl all their manpower and weapons into winning the city.

Military experts don’t expect the rebels to hold out against Assad’s forces beyond late August.

2.  Neither side has enough manpower or game-changing weaponry for winning the war outright.
That is, unless Presidents Obama or Putin steps in to retilt the balance.

3. The US and Russia are poised for more military intervention in the conflict up until a point just short of a military clash on Syrian soil – or elsewhere in the Middle East. US intelligence analysts have judged Putin ready to go all the way on Syria against the US - no holds barred.
The Russian president is meanwhile deliberately goading Washington and raising temperatures by playing hide-and-seek over the former NSA contractor Edward Snowden, charged with espionage for stealing and leaking classified intelligence. At home, he is considered variously as a traitor and a brave whistleblower.
For several hours Snowden vanished between Hong Kong and Moscow – until the Russian president admitted he was holed up in the transit area of Moscow airport and would not be extradited by Russia to the United States.

4.  Iran, Hizballah and Iraq will likewise ratchet up their battlefield presence.

5. A violent encounter is building up between Middle East Shiites flocking to Syria to save the Assad regime alongside Russia, and the US-backed Sunni-dominated rebel forces.
It could scuttle the secret US-Iranian negotiating track on its nuclear program, which was buoyed up by the election of the pragmatic Hassan Rouhani as President of Iran.

6.  The Geneva-2 Conference for a political solution for the Syrian crisis is dead in the water. Moscow and the US are divided by unbridgeable issues of principle, such whether Bashar Assad should stay or go and Iranian representation. 

7.  So long as the diplomatic remains stuck in the mud, the prospects of a regional war spreading out of the Syrian conflict are rising. Iran, Israel, Jordan and Lebanon may be dragged in at any moment – if they have not already, like Lebanon.

A small mistake by one of the Syrian warring parties in Syria could, for example, touch off Israeli retaliation and a wholesale spillover of violence.
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3)Snowden flap bares hapless U.S.

Power and influence slip as prez stumbles

You can’t help but feel that the Russian Bear and Chinese Dragon are enjoying the chance to tweak ol’ Uncle Sam’s nose over the Edward “I’ve got lots of super-secret laptops” Snowden affair.
Their unwillingness to extradite the slippery systems administrator-cum-spy is just the latest example of the waning of American global power and influence courtesy of Team Obama.
This isn’t good news.
Take Russia. The Kremlin is telling us that the fugitive is in no-man’s land in Moscow’s international airport. They claim their hands are tied and they just can’t do anything about it.
When asked about l’affaire Snowden during a visit to Finland yesterday, Vladimir Putin compared him to WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange.
“Ask yourself a question: Should people like that be extradited so that they put them in prison, or not?” he said. “In any case, I would prefer not to deal with such issues. It’s like shearing a piglet: a lot of squealing and little wool.”
Of course, say it were a Russian fugitive, would Moscow just let him/her sit in the transit lounge, sipping vodkas and nibbling caviar? Of course not. The Russian authorities wouldn’t think twice about storming the place.
In addition to dissing Washington, Moscow doesn’t mind dragging this sorry situation out, either. The longer this story makes headlines, the weaker America looks in the world’s eyes.
Yes, perception is reality.
It’s also payback for disagreements between Moscow and Washington. The Kremlin is none too happy with criticism over Sergei Magnitsky, a Russian auditor who died in a Moscow prison in 2009 after revealing corruption.
Russia is also displeased with America’s stance on Syria, where the Kremlin is supporting the Bashar Assad regime and the White House is (cautiously) backing some elements of the rebel force. The Putin-Obama meeting on Syria at the G-8 was dis-astrous.
Even though Team Obama backed off on missile defense in Europe that Putin & Co. have long hated and offered up another arms control treaty, the relationship has gone from Obama’s hoped-for “reset” to our collective “regret.”
Then there’s China.
Snowden showed up last month in Hong Kong after disappearing from his job in Hawaii. Though Hong Kong is self-governing until it reverts fully to Chinese control, Beijing calls the shots there, especially on foreign and security policy.
While Zhongnanhai (China’s version of the Kremlin) knew the White House would be furious with China for refusing to extradite Snowden, they likely figured the United States would get over the snub in time due to the relationship’s importance to both sides.
It didn’t help that Snowden told a Hong Kong newspaper that the National Security Agency was spying on China.
The revelation probably helped Beijing decide to let the rogue contractor slip out of Hong Kong and become someone else’s problem — no doubt after they got their hands on any secrets he hadn’t yet revealed.
That this latest Washington scandal might sap America’s international “mojo” also benefits China.
Beijing is already calling for a “new big power relationship” (read: equal relationship) with the United States and is displeased with American “meddling” in its territorial disputes in the East and South China seas.
The big question, naturally, is: With perceptions of our plummeting power quite plausible, who might be the next to take pleasure in challenging our interests?
Peter Brookes is a 
Heritage Foundation
senior fellow and a 
former deputy assistant secretary of defense. 

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