-
---
Sowell on educational testing and its racial implications. (See 1 below.)
---
Hate him, love him, Roger Aile's is a person to be reckoned with because he is a media genius and , according to Zev Chafetz, Obama hates and fears him. (See 2 below.)
---
Misguided law students honor Jimmy Carter and Dershowitz digs in and sets the record straight. (See 3 below.)
---
Conversation with a bear.
From my perspective you cannot fight The Fed, As long as it is pump money into the economy the market should continue its upward bias but one must not forget this is a Fed induced market, not one rising because everything is hunky dory.
Yes, our economy is showing signs of improvement, unemployment remains high, Europe remains tenuous and China is also facing some headwinds.
Corporate earnings are holding but not growing rapidly. At some point, before the end of the year, we should have a significant correction. Meanwhile the path of least resistance seems absurdly upward. (See 4 below.)
---
Has there been progress in Progressivism? You decide. (See 5 below.)
Dick
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1)Tests and Tiger Moms
New York City's Stuyvesant High School is one of those all too rare public schools for
intellectually outstanding students. Such students are often bored to death in schools where
the work is geared to the lowest common denominator, and it is by no means uncommon
for very bright students to become behavior problems.
Since this is definitely not the ethnic makeup of the general population of New York City, we
Recent statistics on the students who passed the examination to get into Stuyvesant High
School raise troubling questions that are unlikely to receive the kind of serious answers they
deserve.
deserve.
These successful applicants included 9 black students, 24 Latino students, 177 white
students and 620 Asian Americans.
Since this is definitely not the ethnic makeup of the general population of New York City, we
can expect to hear the usual sort of comments from those who are in the business of being
indignant and offended.
The most common of these comments is that the tests are "unfair." That is of course
possible, but it is also possible that the groups themselves are different. Yet only the first
possibility is allowed to be mentioned, in an age when race can be discussed only with
pious hypocrisy and obligatory lies.
However shocked some people may be by the ethnic breakdown among students who
passed the test to get into Stuyvesant High School, similar disparities can be found among
students from different ethnic backgrounds in other countries around the world. Back in the
decade of the 1960s, students from the Chinese minority in Malaysia earned 20 times as
many Bachelor of Science degrees as students from the Malay majority.
In Sri Lanka, children from the Tamil minority consistently outperformed members of the
Sinhalese majority on university admissions tests and, in at least one year, made an absolute
majority of the A's on those tests.
Back in the days of the Ottoman Empire, Armenian students did better than Turkish students
when it came to writing in the Turkish language.
What does all this mean? That people are different. Would ordinary observation and
ordinary common sense not tell you that? Or dare you not even think that, in the suffocating
atmosphere of political correctness?
These differences are not set in stone. Back during the First World War, low mental test
scores among Jewish soldiers in the U.S. Army led one mental test expert to declare that
this tended to "disprove the popular belief that the Jew is highly intelligent."
But many of the men taking the Army's mental tests during the First World War were the
children of immigrants, and had grown up in homes where English was not the language
used. Mental tests in later years showed Jews scoring above the national average.
Every study I know of that compares the amount of time that black students and Asian
American students spend watching television, and how much time they spend on school
work, shows disparities as great as the disparities in their academic outcomes.
When teaching at UCLA, years ago, I once went into a library on a Saturday night, noticed
how many Asian students were studying -- and looked around in vain for any black students.
How surprised should I have been when Asian students did better in the courses I taught?
A few years ago, Professor Amy Chua of Yale caused a controversy when she wrote a
book about Asian "Tiger Moms" who put heavy pressure on their children to succeed in
school. But a more recent book ("Gifted Hands") by black neurosurgeon Benjamin Carson
shows that his mother was as much of a Tiger Mom as the Asians.
Not only did Dr. Carson rise from the ghetto to become an internationally recognized
neurosurgeon, his brother became an engineer -- both of them children of a poverty-stricken
mother with only three years of education. But Tiger Moms get results.Unfortunately, we are
at a stage where the interests of race hustlers is to cry "unfair" at the tests -- and they have
a lot more political clout than black Tiger Moms have. So long as the rest of us are silenced
by political correctness, racial progress on that front is unlikely.
Put differently, whole generations of black young people can continue to go down the drain
because their fate carries less weight than fashionable racial rhetoric.
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2)The Man Obama Fears the Most
---------------------------
2)The Man Obama Fears the Most
Who is the man Barack Obama fears most?
If the White House’s actions toward Fox News are any clue, it’s Roger Ailes.
Ailes is the creator and chairman of America’s No. 1-rated cable news channel,
Fox News.
A just-released biography — “Roger Ailes: Off Camera” by Zev Chafets — gives
the first and most revealing account of the battle between Fox News and President
Obama.
Rush Limbaugh says it’s the best book ever written about Ailes and Fox News,
disclosing stories never before told.
Among these stories is the dramatic struggle that has been taking place between
Fox News and Barack Obama.
To say that Obama hates Fox News may be an understatement.
Early in his first term, Obama actually sought to ban Fox News from the White
House press corps, ripping away its press credential.
Even liberal media were aghast at the president’s authoritarian move. The Obama
administration backed down and Fox kept its White House seat.
But no love has been lost between the two sides.
Ailes tells Chafets what he really thinks of Obama.He doesn’t mince words, saying
the president lied to him at their first meeting, which took place in 2008 at New
York’s Waldorf Astoria Hotel with News Corporation Chairman and CEO Rupert
Murdoch in the room.
Ailes also called the president “lazy,” based on the president’s own evaluation of
himself with Barbara Walters.
Chafets recounts the private meeting between Ailes, Obama, and Murdoch.
The author gives a blow-by-blow account of the tense confrontation that ensued.
As Chafets recounts, when Ailes confronted Obama about his plans for unilateral
arms cuts, Obama denied he ever made such a statement.
Ailes described Obama’s response this way: “He said this looking me right in the
eyes. He never dropped his gaze, which is the usual tell. It was as good a lie as
anyone ever told me.”
Obama became icy and his press secretary jumped up to end the meeting.
Chafets’ book is drawing high praise not only for its penetrating look at the man
credited with building Fox News into the top-rated cable news channel, but also for
the significant revelations it offers about Ailes, the fight with Obama, and other
fascinating vignettes.
The book also carries credibility. Chafets is not a conservative — a frequent
contributor to the New York Times Magazine and a former columnist for the New
York Daily News, he was given unprecedented access to Ailes and others at Fox
News with no strings attached.
Some of Chafets’ many surprising revelations include:
- Obama’s obsession with Sean Hannity for “battering” him on radio and TV
- shows
- How Glenn Beck’s exposé on Van Jones led to the White House efforts to
- ban Fox News.
- Obama’s surprising remark at a White House Christmas party, telling Ailes
- that he was “the most powerful man in the world”
- The truth about the Soros-backed efforts to torpedo the “two Great Satans”
- — Roger Ailes and Rush Limbaugh
- Why Glenn Beck really left Fox News to start his own network
- Fox and Hollywood: the funny account by Ailes of the time he went to dinner
- with Al Pacino and Shirley MacLaine
- White House days: Ailes’ time as a media adviser to Richard Nixon and why
- chief of staff H.R. Haldeman and Nixon’s inner circle kept him on the outside
- 1984: Ailes’ role in saving Reagan after his disastrous debate performance
- against Walter Mondale
- Nancy and the Gipper behind the curtain: a side most people never saw before
- The Rush Limbaugh television show and the advice Ailes gave to Rush when
- dealing with the liberal media — Rush has never forgotten it
- O’Reilly wars: the inside story of how Fox dealt with MSNBC’s Keith
- Olbermann and why to this day, Bill O’Reilly hates his liberal critics at NBC
- Backfire: O’Reilly’s push to sue Al Franken for his book criticizing Fox and
- how it helped Franken gain best-seller status
- Kennedy clan: Ailes’ surprising relationship with the Kennedy family that goes
- back more than four decades
Chafets talked with hundreds of Ailes’ friends and enemies, and constructs an
intimate portrait of the man who has been called “the most powerful in news.”
He offers revealing insights into Ailes’ relationship with News Corp. chairman
Rupert Murdoch and Fox stars such as O’Reilly, Hannity, Greta Van Susteren,
Megyn Kelly, Brit Hume, Shep Smith, Bret Baier and others.
Ailes gave Chafets his candid take on many of his closest friends, including Rush
Limbaugh, and Chafets chronicles Ailes’ relationships with U.S. presidents Nixon,
Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush.
And there is Ailes’ candid take on some of his critics: He called Vice President Joe
Biden “dumb as an ashtray.”
Chafets notes that Ailes, who served as a media consultant to three Republican
presidents, “used his populism, his showbiz savvy and his political strategist’s
canny understanding of creating narratives to build Fox News into a huge profit
machine for Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp., while helping to steer the country’s
conversation to the right,” The New York Times observed in a review of the book.
Rush Limbaugh said Chafets’ Ailes biography is “great because Ailes opened up to
Zev like he hasn’t opened up to anybody else.”
Limbaugh has encouraged his listeners to “get ‘Roger Ailes: Off Camera’ and you
find out who this Roger Ailes guy is.”
Veteran political analyst Dick Morris also has touted the book, saying in a recent
column: “Most of the time when a biography of a famous man mired in current
controversy comes out, the reader asks an odd question: Is it favorable or not?
Chafets’ is neither. It is accurate.
“Chafets’ book shows Ailes’ full dimensions — how the combination of a remarkable personality, creative genius and business acumen have helped him make Fox News.”
Morris adds: “Every Fox News fan should read this book.”
The Media Research Center said the bio is “required reading for anyone looking to
gain insight into the mind of the man who created the number-one cable news
channel in America.”
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3)Cardozo Law School's Honoring of Jimmy Carter Provides an Educational
Moment
The ill-advised decision by a student-run journal of conflict resolution at the Cardozo Law School to
honor Jimmy Carter provides a long overdue opportunity to set the record straight with regard to
Carter's dishonorable history with regard to conflicts.
Carter causes conflicts by encouraging terrorism, supporting some of the most tyrannical regimes in the world,
and interfering with American foreign policy.
Let's begin with the Middle East. In 2000-2001, Jimmy Carter was advising Yasser Arafat, with regard to the
ongoing peace negotiations with Israel. President Clinton and Prime Minister Barak had offered the
Palestinians a state on more than 95% of the disputed territories, captured by Israel in a defensive war. They
also offered Jerusalem as a the capital of that state. Jimmy Carter believed that if Arafat were to accept this
generous offer his life would be at risk. He repeated that assessment subsequently in his book Palestine:
Peace not Apartheid, in which he wrote "There was no possibility that any Palestinian leader could accept such
terms (as the ones offered at Camp David) and survive." Carter surely shared that assessment with Arafat, who
rejected the offer and initiated an intifada in which several thousand Palestinians and Israelis were needlessly
killed. The blood of these victims is, at least in part, on the hands of Jimmy Carter. Had he urged Arafat
to take the deal, we might now be celebrating a dozen years of peace and a two-state solution.
The blood of Israel's victims of Hamas and Hezbollah terrorism is also in part on Carter's hands, since
Carter has embraced every Mideast terrorist leader, while showing contempt for democratically
elected Israeli leaders. While in Israel in 2008, he visited the grave of his "dear friend" Yasser Arafat, but not
the graves of Arafat's victims or of Yitzhak Rabin.
Nor does he deserve all the credit he has gotten for brokering the peace treaty between Egypt and
Israel; that peace, which cost Anwar Sadat his life, is the result of two courageous leaders: Menachem
Begin and Anwar Sadat, who took enormous risks for peace. Carter almost ruined it by insisting that
Egypt not take back the Gaza Strip – a decision that has cost many lives over the past 30 years. While Carter
was president, he stood idly by the mass murder of more than 2 million Cambodians by Pol Pot.
Since leaving the presidency Carter has helped build homes for the poor, which deserves commendation. But
he has refused to speak out against some of the worst human rights abuses committed by the Saudi
regime, which has bought his silence by significant contributions to the Carter Center. While
accusing Israel of apartheid, he has allowed Saudi Arabia to escape that description, despite the
reality that the Saudis explicitly practice gender, religious, and sexual orientation apartheid.
Perhaps Carter's worst offense is to have helped the hard left hijack the human rights agenda, and
turn it into an ideological tool to be used primarily against America and its western allies.
None of these historical facts will be mentioned by those who bestow the award on Jimmy Carter at Cardozo
Law School.But facts are stubborn things and Carter should be confronted with these facts by
students in attendance. The students should prepare a leaflet which would tell the truth about Jimmy Carter --
he should be asked to respond to these charges in his acceptance speech. He should be challenged to debate
his record.
Jimmy Carter does not like conflict or controversy when it's about him. When Brandeis University invited him to
have a discussion with me about his apartheid book, he refused. He likes to spark controversy and stimulate
debate, but then he refuses to participate in the debate or respond to the other side of the controversy.
Let the students who disagree with this honor take the high road and respond to half-truths with full truths, to
fiction with facts, and to dishonor with honor. Law schools are supposed to be places of debate. So let there be
a debate about Jimmy Carter's dishonorable record in conflict resolution and human rights. Let the
students of Cardozo turn this wrongheaded honor into an educational moment, so that Jimmy Carter
will regret having accepted this undeserved accolade.
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4)
Conversations With a Bear
"Stocks Likely To Crater From Here," read the subject line of an email that landed in my inbox last week.
"Sequestration cuts, weakening GDP growth, higher taxes and high gasoline prices are all but a few
reasons why author and economic researcher Chris Martenson PH.D foresees the stock market likely to
plummet within the coming months," it warned.
I usually ignore such hyper-specific emails, but I gave this one a look for one reason: I feel better about
the economy now than I have in a while, and in an attempt to avoid confirmation bias, it's always best to
bounce your thoughts off someone who disagrees with you.
So Chris and I exchanged a back-and-forth chat about the economy and investments. Here's the
transcript, condensed for clarity.
Morgan Housel: You cite an increase in taxes and gas prices as a reason you expect stocks to plummet
. But the last time we raised taxes in the early 1990s, stocks surged. Same with tax hikes in the 1950s.
And gas prices are up 40% over the last three years, yet stocks are up by more than a third during that
time. I'm not saying it's causation; just that the relationship is much more complicated than we often think
. I just don't see the evidence that higher taxes or higher gas prices automatically lead to poor stock
returns. (And for what it's worth, gas prices have been falling for a month now).
Chris Martenson: My thinking here is that stocks do respond poorly to are falling earnings and
recessions are a powerful driver for falling earnings. Rising energy prices are well correlated with
recessions and so I see high gasoline prices as a headwind to economic growth. The US economy is
barely above stall speed when measured in terms of real GDP, and is a tick below the 3.7% nominal
growth threshold that has been breached in every recession stretching back to 1980 (and at no other
times, I should note). It is in the context of a weak economy that I wish to observe that the recent tax
hikes and spending cuts of the US government provide yet more recessionary weight to the current
environment.
Morgan: So the call, then, is for a looming outright recession? I agree that recession would be bad for
stocks, of course. And while you can never rule out the possibility of a recession -- we're very bad at
predicting them -- the negatives of higher energy prices and tax hikes can be countered by a number of
things going right in the economy. Housing starts are rising at an annual rate of more than 25%, and will
likely keep rising given low inventory and demographic trends. Household debt payments as a share of
income are at a three-decade low, and there's evidence that consumer deleveraging is now complete.
Energy production is booming. The near-stagnant GDP growth in the fourth quarter was almost entirely
due to a big pullback in defense spending, which itself was the echo of a big rise in defense spending in
the third quarter. And while gas prices have risen since last fall, prices are lower today than they were a
year ago, and considerably lower than they were in mid-2011 -- to say nothing of real prices after
nominal wage growth.
I would never rule out a recession, but the odds of one occurring in the coming year seem rather low to
me, perhaps one in five. What odds do you place on a recession occurring?
Chris: I consider one to be far more likely than not, well over 50% in the US ... and the combined
impacts of the sequester and Obamacare which I peg at between -1.5% and -2.5% for 2013. The
sequester is easy to peg, that's going to be 0.6% full year, but at an annualized rate of -1% between here
and Oct 1, 2013. ...
You cite many positive aspects, including booming energy production, and I'm pretty much in agreement
with all of them with two caveats. First oil production is up, but this isn't your grandpa's oil, it is expensive
oil. With the all-in cost of production for new oil in range of $70-$90 per barrel, we'll see a nice reduction
in our import requirements, but not in the hits to disposable income. By my records at $3.50 gal avg.,
gasoline is twice as expensive as it was a decade ago, and that is an important factor to consider.
Second, household debt payments are as low as they are principally because of low interest rates, and
less so because less debt is being carried, an essential part of the definition of (and psychological benefit
of) deleveraging. To put numbers to this, the Debt Service Ratio (DSR) has fallen from a bit over 14% at
the end of 2007 to 10.4% today for a decline of ~35%. However, household debt has declined from
$13.763 trillion (Q108) to $12.844 trillion or by just a bit over 7%. ... I feel it is essential context.
All told, I am increasingly convinced that the risks of recession are higher than not and that prudence will
serve investors better than greed.
Morgan: So let's say we're heading for a recession this year. What's should an investor do with his or her
money?
Chris: I am especially leery of high yield bonds which have just hit all time, as in never-before-seen,
highs. The class of companies that comprise the high yield bond universe do quite poorly in times of
stress, for obvious reasons.
My general advice goes like this:
- Get out of high interest debt that is higher than your likely investment returns. Paying down credit
- card debt, auto loans and the like is one of the better investment moves you can make. Plus it feels
- good.
- With your next tranche of funds, invest in your house, if you own one. Investments in things like
- insulation ,energy efficiency, solar hot water and/or geothermal typically have double digit returns,
- sometimes even triple digit, where your only risk is that energy prices fall dramatically. It's time to
- broaden the definition of 'investment' to include prudent investments to day that reduce your future
- cash flows tomorrow.
- Put a minimum of 10% of your portfolio in gold. I have been giving this advice since 2003 and
- continue to give it because gold is the only monetary instrument I know of that is not simultaneously
- someday else's liability. Given all the QE and other overt forms of debasement ongoing in the world,
- coupled to negative real interest rates, and high deficit spending by governments gold has a natural
- tailwind for price appreciation. However, I am most enamored with gold's hidden option potential.
- Seeing that various cross-border currency stresses and imbalances are only increasing, there is a
- non-zero chance that gold is one day remonetized. While that is a small chance, it remains a
- possibility and this gives gold an embedded call option. Should that option value ever be realized the
- gains should be rather exemplary.
- Got money left over? Then have your wealth managed carefully and safely with an eye on return of
- principal rather than a return on principal. This is no time for buy and hold, but to carefully weigh the
- risks and rewards. With the Dow and bonds at all time highs financial assets are as pricey as they've
- ever been and require a very generous future to distribute more gains to all their holders.
Morgan: I agree with a few, and disagree with others.
High-yield bonds -- yes, they're lurking with danger. Housing -- agreed, when valued against average
rents or average incomes, they're by and large a great deal.
Gold, I'm skeptical. With prices surging over the last decade, the gold market appears to be well aware of
the policies you describe. As an investor, my worry would not be that high inflation will soon take off, but
that gold is already priced for such an event. What's more, gold has a low correlation with inflation over
time. It correlates fairly well with A) negative real interest rates, and B) Market panic, either of which are
entirely possible going forward, but less likely in a strengthening economy (which you and I seem to
respectfully disagree on). And deficit spending is declining rapidly, with deficits as a share of GDP falling
by a third over the last three years. I wouldn't count gold out, but I feel the past decade's returns have
created a dangerous perception that it is a particularly safe asset, which history is not kind to.
Furthermore, I think the last decade has shown that trying to time the market's ups and downs can be
dangerous. Buy and hold, on the other hand, has performed remarkably well. No one consistently buying
and holding a low-cost S&P 500 index fund over the last 13 years has lost money -- even in real terms,
with dividends reinvested -- yet the number who have lost out by trying to jump in and out of the market is
off the charts. The S&P 500 trades at 14.3 times expected 2013 earnings, which is nowhere near the
priciest of all time. On a CAPE basis, the index now trades at 22.5 times earnings, versus 19.5 average
since its inception in the 1950s. Robert Shiller, who pioneered the method, recently said he expects
stocks to produce annual returns of 4% real, or 6%-7% nominal, going forward. Not a king's ransom, but
very likely more than one will earn elsewhere.
Let's say I'm an investor who can stomach volatility and has a long-term outlook. Doesn't it make sense for
me to sit tight?
Chris: Well, I guess that depends on your definition of 'long-term.' For myself here at the tender age of
50, I consider anything over ten years 'long term' and on that basis I am just not a fan of equities (in
general) here for reasons that go well beyond the possibility of a near-term recession.
Warren Buffet once noted that corporate profits are unlikely to grow faster than 6% per year and that
when people forget this they are likely to get into trouble. The reason for this is that it is impossible for
corporate profits to grow faster than nominal GDP for very long, let alone forever. Today corporate profits
are near 11% and the main reason for those excessive profits can be traced to government deficits and
reduced personal savings. As you note, government deficits are on the way down and, if that is a
structural condition of the next ten years (hopefully!) then we have a serious headwind to corporate
profits that will tend to bring them into alignment with historical norms. As a believer in reversion to the
mean, I have a pretty strong affinity for the idea that corporate profits are due to moderate.
But more importantly, I have serious doubts about nominal GDP growth even managing to achieve the
6%+ necessary to even support normalized corporate earnings over the next ten years. The reasons are
related to structurally and permanently elevated oil prices (new finds are required to keep production up
and they average $70-$90/barrel, so this is the new floor) and the still entirely too high debt levels that,
although moderated from the recent peak, remain over 350% of GDP. To me this provides sufficient
cause for concern that equities might badly underperform both their recent and historical performance
over the next ten years. On the basis of cyclically adjusted earnings stocks are anything but cheap here. ...
If one does have a stomach for volatility and a long term outlook I do think there are companies and
sectors that make sense, so I am not saying one must be entirely out of stocks, but the broad indexes are
very much out of my favor at this time and will remain so until fairly valued and earnings are back in a
middle historical range. I'd hate to pit myself against Robert Shiller and his call for 4% real gains in
equities, but until and unless nominal GDP roughly doubles from here, I think a strong case could be
made for returns near zero over the next 5 -- 10 years.
Morgan: Thanks, Chris
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5)Where's the Progress in Progressivism?
By Daren Jonescu
As we know from the climate change farce, progressives are never deterred by reality's refusal to fall
in line with the theories they use to justify their authoritarian advances. This obstinacy reveals the
extent to which, contrary to honest reasoning, their political agenda determines their theoretical
framework, rather than vice versa. Nowhere is this more evident than with regard to the most
fundamental premise of progressivism itself, namely the repeatedly falsified mythology of "progress."
The propensity for what we may call pseudo-theorizing has been at the heart of progressivism from the
start. The nineteenth century spawned a mutant philosophical subset, intellectuals for tyranny, who
produced ersatz scientific, moral, and even metaphysical arguments to persuade men that their desire
for unlimited state power was in fact an unavoidable inference from an objective reasoning process,
rather than the authoritarian impulse plain and simple. This philosophical mutation -- reason as
handmaiden of authoritarianism, rather than as its natural rival and limit -- was made possible by the
anti-rational turn in German thought during the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries, most
dramatically signaled by Immanuel Kant's condemnation of previous Western philosophy as a "dialectical illusion," in his Critique of Pure Reason.
From that moment, intellectuals were in effect barred from taking previous thought seriously "on its
own terms," for fear of being accused of willfully embracing the "illusion" of pursuing theoretical
understanding about the world. Thus was born the idea that previous thinkers were not to be learned
from or disputed, but rather dismissed as negated -- as disqualified from even being represented in
subsequent philosophical discussion, except as unscientific precursors to "genuine" philosophy. Kant,
Fichte, and Hegel cut the golden thread connecting the greatest minds across the ages, by positing a
new theoretical framework in which all previous philosophy was by definition "immature" and lacking
in "self-consciousness."
This was the seed of modernity's deadly invasive plant, political historicism. In effect, this nineteenth
century weed, authoritarianism in the guise of theory, was the latest and greatest revival of Socrates' old
nemesis, sophistry -- the art of rhetorical persuasion in the service of political efficacy, grounded in the
denial of any distinction between truth and power. The basic method of this newer, more devilish
sophistry was to obliterate the truth/power distinction by flat-out denying the reason/politics distinction.
In other words, the intellectuals for tyranny reduced the mind itself to the play of political forces, hence
conflating logic, the abstract method of development in the search for knowledge, with power struggle,
the practical mechanism of political development.
But if logic has inexorable rules and inescapable inferences, and if political struggle is the embodiment
of logic, then political struggle itself has inexorable rules and inescapable inferences. By such
arguments did history become History, an impersonal force that must inevitably play itself out to its
conclusion. The difference between history in the old sense and History in the nineteenth century
European sense (epitomized by the Marxist dialectic) is that the former is understood as the collective
product of individual men's choices, whereas the latter is, in effect, the engine of men's actions, thus
dissolving individual choice in favor of collective movement under the control of History's unstoppable
mechanism.
Several interrelated conclusions follow from this theoretical reversal of the causal relationship between
mankind and history (or History).
For one thing, the individual human being becomes, if not an outright logical fallacy, then at least an i
nsignificant term in the new morality which flows from the elevation of political history to the status of a
logical argument, or dialectic. Ethical individualism is thus obliterated, in favor of a collectivism that is
as much metaphysical as it is ethical. (I have repeatedly noted that progressivism literallydenies the
logical priority of the individual human being, and declares instead that the individual is derived from the
collective. Some may have found this description hard to believe; nonetheless it is not only true, but
absolutely unavoidable if one radically reverses our relationship to history, as progressivism does.)
Secondly, if reason is reduced to political history, and the brute force of collective action identified with
the force of logic, then death and oppression, the practical means of progressive authoritarianism, are
as objective and amoral as a syllogism. In this way, historicism becomes man's most ingenious moral
sophistry: the rationalization of mass murder, and of carelessness about life itself. What, after all, is
mere individual life against the glorious march of history? Furthermore, what is individual moral
responsibility in the face of collective historical necessity? This is perhaps the ultimate explanation of
every progressive atrocity, real and prospective, from the Communist Manifesto to Bill Ayers'
projection of the need to kill twenty-five million Americans who resist re-education; from the millions
slaughtered by Stalin, Hitler and Mao to Barack Obama knowingly ignoring the cries for help from the
victims of Benghazi for over seven hours, or his support for death panels and post-birth "abortion."
And from here we arrive at the ultimate implication, the nub and neatest trick of the nineteenth century
pseudo-theoretical project of reducing the mind of man to historical conditions: the all-justifying,
debate-proof mythology of Progress.
Progress, in this special sense applicable to politics for the past century and a half, does not mean
growing prosperity, technological development, increased understanding, or any of the other things we
might regard as progress in the limited, contingent world of history understood (properly) as the
product of the choices and actions of individual men. (Modern liberty, for example, led to progress in
the cause of general human prosperity. Socrates' moral questioning led to progress in the development of human self-understanding.)
But Progress, as this word is used by progressives, means the inescapable logic of History, leading
mankind "forward," ultimately by means of the historical dialectic's peculiar means of drawing logical
conclusions, namely violent upheaval, aka "revolution."
This progressive mythology -- the myth of political history as a logical dialectic -- explains the
Marxist "science" of determinism, in which classical liberalism, i.e., "capitalism," is reinterpreted as a
precursory step on the road to communism. It explains the early twentieth century progressivism of
Woodrow Wilson and Edward Mandell House, with their statements to the effect that limited republican
government was suited to an earlier set of circumstances, but that constitutional limits on government
have outlived their usefulness. It explains Obama's declaration, "We are the ones we've been waiting
for."
Who was waiting for someone? How is Obama's declaration anything but a fatuous non-sequitur?
And yet it makes perfect sense to progressives, and to those raised and educated through immersion in
progressive mythology, for whom all humanity is always, by definition, waiting for change, i.e., for
collective coercive authority to lead us forward towards the final conclusion of History's dialectic, i.e.,
to equality, freedom, and everything else progressives promise, if only we will join them in destroying
the final resistance to all these good things. If only, that is to say, we will join them in destroying all
men who resist.
The Marxist dialectic disintegrated in the face of actual historical developments, as surely as "global
cooling" fizzled as Earth entered a warming period in the late 1970s. But just as the climate alarmists
adjusted their "theory" to accommodate precisely the opposite of their original "proof," and so kept
their political agenda alive at the expense of any believable pretense of science, so the post-Marxist
progressives modified their rhetoric to obscure the real-world falsification of Marx's theory of surplus
value. And in reworking their theoretical underpinnings in order to keep the Marxist conclusion,
progressives revealed that this conclusion -- revolution and the establishment of a global authoritarian
state -- was their real agenda and purpose all along, and not merely the logical result of History's
economic determinism as they had previously claimed.
In sum, the original Marxist revolutionary dream, just like the original climate alarmist lie, was always
susceptible to contradiction by changing historical realities, which is why its proponents urged
immediate, radical action; even the best lie can only hold up to scrutiny for so long. Given
progressivism's repeated failures, both as explanation of history and as practical solution, supporting
it with new variants of historicist pseudo-theory has become untenable as a means of overcoming the
deficiencies of the old historicist pseudo-theory. Such efforts have been reduced to the hot-house
flowers of academic obscurity -- they are the angels-on-a-pinhead arguments of leftist academia.
In the wake of the disintegration of any all-encompassing grounding for revolutionary socialism, the
latter day ("post-modern") intellectuals for tyranny have become increasingly issue-focused, hitting us
with their ever-expanding collection of --isms, the litany of historical injustices supposedly in need of
revolutionary correction. Lacking an ounce of reasoning in support of their underlying principle that
logic is political struggle -- that Thought is History -- they gamble everything on the hope that Progress
in general is now so embedded in the public consciousness as a matter of faith that theoretical
justification is no longer required.
Progress as a matter of faith, in defiance of all reasoning and science -- God's last laugh on the
nineteenth century's "scientific" socialists -- is the catch-all justification for the moral and political
absurdities that have collectively destroyed Western civilization and the modern project of individual
liberty. The irrational faith in the logical necessity of History, and in the irresistible need for violent
upheaval and the destruction of the past to reach the next stage in the argument/struggle, explains so
much of what has been most grotesque, evil, and just plain stupid over the past century. It explains the
Holocaust. It explains John Dewey's lifelong fight against individualism, and his fawning over the
promise of Soviet Russia. It explains the Ukrainian famine and China's Cultural Revolution. It explains
the apologies of Western intellectuals, from Dewey to Christopher Hitchens, for Trotsky -- their way
of clinging to their progressive dreams without appearing to approve of "Stalinism." It explains the
dismantling of the family, "You didn't build that," Bill Ayers as a respected professor of education,
and Hillary Clinton's latest "impassioned" speech declaring "women's rights" the "unfinished business"
of the twenty-first century.
"Unfinished business." "The ones we've been waiting for." These empty slogans gain portent and heft
from the underlying implication that the changes indicated are not merely ill-defined policy proposals,
but a call to participate in the inevitable next stage of History, to be part of the collective embodiment
of Progress. The Great Finish Line is calling us. The alternative to heeding this call is to be part of the
resistance to Progress, and hence to doom oneself to annihilation by History's logic of revolutionary
change. That is, as an impersonal logical process, History must and will work itself out; to stand
against this is to stand against truth itself, justifying any and all actions taken by those on the vanguard
of Progress to stamp out the deniers in the name of truth, progress, and the great god History itself.
That history (i.e., human action) obeys the laws of cause and effect, and that patterns rooted in the
nature of the soul will be manifested in behavior, are not controversial assertions. That history's causal
mechanism is fundamentally independent of human thought and choice, however -- or that thought and
choice are merely derivative effects and instruments of the great logic of History -- is a different claim
entirely, and one with neither theoretical nor experiential evidence. This has not prevented the latter
claim from becoming perhaps the most successful sophistical argument of all time. The myth of
History as an inescapable and inexorable logical system has worked wonders in the service of tearing
down the structures of Western civilization in favor of establishing forms of political oppression as
inhuman as any the world has ever known.
Thanks to this grand sophistry, resistance to so-called progressivism is now broadly perceived not as
standing against tyrannical men (which is what it is), but as defying the force of History. This leaves a
ll of us who reject the pseudo-theory of historicism, with its new religion and idols of Progress, in the
position of Socrates on trial: hated, mocked, and condemned by our contemporaries as impious and a
threat to established power.
Our fate may be similar to that of Socrates, but so must be our defiance in the face of irrational power.
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