U.S. Financial System Sinks - Palestinians Tunnel!

It seems we are in for a long period of confidence rebuilding. Europe and Asia must also show stability and recovery signs.

During all of this, the prospect of confrontations increase and ,assuming Obama becomes president, we will experience a considerable period of uncertainty and fear as he is tested and responds and either succeeds in introducing his programs of questionable change or fails to do so because his options are constrained.

For those who care about history and are objective enough to understand it, there is considerable evidence Roosevelt's programs did not get us out of The Great Depression, and in fact, prolonged the recovery. It was War that bailed us out, siphoned off the unemployed into military uniforms and re-engaged the nation's manufacturing sector.

Just as Kennedy was tested by an aggressive Russian leader one has to ask will President Obama and/or McCain be in for the same treatment? Andre Glucksmann sheds some reality on this point with a lots of "ifs". (See 1 below.)

I am leaving town again so I thought I would post some interesting and diverse articles if you should care to read any of them. (See 2 below.)

Palestinians in Gaza tunnel their way through life. Tunneling has economic consequences. (See 3 below.)

As the campaign enters the final weeks McCain persists with tired meaningless themes and one has to question whether anyone is really listening. If they are and really care about asking themselves about Obama and his ideas and proposals, McCain still has a chance to pull it off.

Biden's comments about Obama being tested could boomerang on Obama but so much of the nation has already voted even another 9/11 (G-- forbid) might not change election results.

Dick

1) The Putin Doctrine
Andre Glucksmann

The world shook this August, overturning the equilibrium not just of forces on the ground, but of people's ideas and prejudices.

The gigantic Olympic Games in Beijing displayed China's will to power, a major challenge for the 21st century. The invasion of Georgia brusquely alerted the world to the return of an imperial Russia without frontiers.

But neither event should have surprised the West. It has been 30 years since China, having swept aside Marxist dogmas, laid the foundation of an economic miracle that has raised its economy to second or third place in the world. Soon it will be 10 years since Vladimir Putin, the leveler of Grozny, made himself a new Russian czar. Neither Beijing nor Georgia was hard to foresee. The veil ripped away was that of our illusions.

Consider the Russian question. What right do we have to make a show of disappointed innocence about the aggressiveness of Putin, who seduced George W. Bush with his blue eyes, Tony Blair with his good manners, Silvio Berlusconi with his frequenting of the Italian Riviera, Gerhard Schröder with a Gazprom chairmanship--and who received the Grand Cross of the Legion of Honor from Jacques Chirac? The Kremlin has proclaimed the fundamental axioms of the Putin Doctrine loudly and clearly, but no deafness is so profound as that of those who will not hear.

Putin spoke the first of these axioms in 2005: "The greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century was the dissolution of the Soviet Union." The First World War (10 million dead), the Second (50 million), Auschwitz, the Gulag--these are but profits and losses in his accounting. The true abomination, in his view, remains the treason of Boris Yeltsin, who, after Mikhail Gorbachev refused to send armored tanks to attack the peoples of Eastern Europe, allowed Ukraine, the Baltic nations, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and others to throw off 70 years of Bolshevik oppression, achieve their independence peacefully and severely weaken Putin's hierarchy--provisionally, he hopes.

The second axiom: Mass democratic movements, such as Georgia's Rose Revolution in 2003 and Ukraine's Orange Revolution in 2004, are signs of a "permanent revolution" that threatens the foundations of the Russian state; such subversion receives financing from the CIA, NATO, foreign interests--and bad Russians.

A few days before she was assassinated, my friend Anna Politkovskaya told me about the disproportionate panic that the joyous Kiev and Tbilisi uprisings provoked in high places in Moscow. Exaggerating the danger beyond all reason, the frightened Kremlin bigwigs anticipated a shower of cannonballs in their own country. Hence their unmeasured repression of all protest: They censored the press, muzzled dissident voices and assassinated or imprisoned the obstinate. Hence, too, their attempt to suppress their neighbors' desire for emancipation, whether by brutally stopping the flow of natural gas in the middle of winter, clumsily buying off political opponents or, when necessary, deploying tanks.

The march on Tbilisi sent a clear message: It is them or us. It was left to Dmitry Medvedev, the amiable new Russian president upon whom Western dreamers project their hopes, to equate Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili with Adolf Hitler.

Yet the real surprise of August 2008 was not what Putin did, but signs of new firmness in Europe. French President Nicolas Sarkozy reacted immediately and negotiated a delicate and ambiguous cease-fire, which at least blocked the Russian offensive on the Georgian capital.

Then, in a unilateral reaction, the European Union refused to shut its eyes to Russia's barely disguised annexation of Abkhazia and of South Ossetia. Europe did not give in to panic: Its response was neither a return to the Cold War ("Yalta is over," Sarkozy declared) nor to angelism ("The vacation from history is over," Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk followed up). Time will tell if the 27 European nations are capable of holding their course, forging an energetic common policy and negotiating with their Russian oil suppliers as equals. After all, the Russians need to sell as much as the West needs to buy.

In the face of European hostility to its Georgian thrust, the Kremlin has not changed its objectives, but its tone has become more accommodating. Clearly, Russia is testing how far it can go. It excels in strong-arm tactics, but it is learning that it cannot get away with anything. Georgia is not another Chechnya. And as a substitute for lost power, a nuisance policy on all fronts, while it can make an initial impression, will not restore the prestige of a clay-footed colossus.

Despite the bragging that accompanies its oil-drunkenness, Russia knows that its future is not bright; none of its spin doctors repeats Nikita Khrushchev's blustering claim that it will surpass America. The country remains anemic, plagued with alcoholism, mafias, corruption, unemployment, tuberculosis, AIDS, prostitution and a dizzying demographic plunge. Russian life expectancy is at Third World levels. Seventy percent of its budget depends on the sale of energy and raw materials. So long as its means of drilling and storage are lacking, Russia will not be able to blackmail prosperous Europe over the long term, and it will take a decade or even several decades to construct the transportation capacity to redirect its energy supplies toward Asia.

In the aftermath of its Georgian expedition, Russia's diplomatic isolation is striking. It has not succeeded in winning recognition for the self-proclaimed independence of the Georgian republics Abkhazia and South Ossetia. China's refusal to acquiesce demonstrates that there will be no bloc of authoritarian capitalist states following Putin's lead in a new Cold War against the democracies.

The only regimes going along with Russia are those temporarily protected by the rise of oil prices. Chávez's Venezuela and Ahmadinejad's Iran share a malevolent drive with Putin's Russia: Every political, diplomatic, social, or military crisis that might raise the price of crude represents an opportunity. But the power interests that drive the economies of China, Europe and the U.S. favor a reduction of energy prices. Moscow's taste for trouble is enclosing it in global solitude.

The European Union, if it maintains its newfound--and still uncertain--firmness, will be able to force its big neighbor to moderate its ardor for conquest. Public opinion must hold firm and not be intimidated by the apocalyptic evocations of which Kremlin propagandists are so fond. Reassuringly, Sarkozy has spared us a repeat of the pitiful spectacle of the French prime minister, Pierre Mauroy, standing before the National Assembly and proclaiming in 1981 that we must "not add to the misfortune of the Poles"--the victims of Brezhnev and Jaruzelski--"the misfortunes of the French, who would be deprived of the gas they need to cook their steak and fries."

Whatever lies Putin and Medvedev choose to circulate, the confrontation of August 2008 is not between a bellicose (let alone "Nazi") Georgia and its "fraternal" big neighbor; or between capitalist democracies and an autocratic Moscow-Beijing axis that is no less capitalist; or even between a European culture of freedom and another based on nationalist sovereignty. Instead, the crisis brings European public opinion face to face with itself. Will Europe choose to commit suicide by oil and cave to the Putin doctrine? Or will it hold firm and resist?

2)The Irony of Obama - Michael Gerson, Washington Post

Joe the Plumber & GOP 'Authenticity' - Thomas Frank, Wall Street Journal

Economic vs. Social Populism - Dick Morris, The Hill

America's Other Deficit: Leadership - D. Gergen & A. Zelleke, CS Monitor

Can't Fight The Aura of Mr. Smooth - Dennis Byrne, Chicago Tribune

McCain's Campaign Is Both Uncivil and Uncivilizing - Ruth Marcus, WP

Who Are Left-Wing Haters to Point Fingers? - James Kirchick, NYDN

McCain Fights to Keep Crucial Blue State in Play - Bumiller & Zeleny, NYT

McCain Buried Under Avalanche of Cash - Dan Thomasson, Scripps Howard

Big Donors Drive Obama's Money Edge - Mosk & Cohen, Washington Post

Did Obama Kill Campaign Finance? - Linton Weeks, National Public Radio

Are the Polls Accurate? - Michael Barone, Wall Street Journal

How Many Polls Does It Take To Screw Up An Election? - M. Crowley, TNR

Generation Jones Looks for Attention - Clarence Page, Chicago Tribune

Taxing Time for Ballot Questions - Steven Malanga, RealClearMarkets

How to Finish the Job in Iraq - Ann Gildroy & Michael O'Hanlon, USA Today

The Power of Powell's Rebuke - Eugene Robinson, Washington Post

Editorials:

Democrats Could Dominate Congress After the Elections - The Economist

$150 Million Man - Washington Post

Guns, Abortion and the Supreme Court - Los Angeles Times

Starting to Pay a Price for Our Protectionism - Investor's Business Daily

Health Care Plans: Obama vs. McCain

On Health Plans The Numbers Fly

McCain Health Care Plan Offers Needed Choice

Political News & Analysis:

Obama Pledges Tax Cut for 'Joe' - Miami Herald

McCain Hits Obama on Experience, Taxes - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Region Could Give McCain Pa. Win - Pittsburgh Tribune-Review


Best of the Blogs:

The RNC's Stimulus Package - Matthew Yglesias, Think Progress

Was Biden Talking About a Draft? - Kathryn Jean Lopez, The Corner

The McCain Pennsylvania Theory - Chris Bowers, Open Left

How the Left Legitimizes Voter Fraud - Soren Dayton, Next Right

Rat, Meet Sinking Ship - Kevin Drum, Mother Jones

Real Clear World:

A Critical Stage in Iraq - David Ignatius, Washington Post

Bush's Grand Illusion - H.D.S. Greenway, Int'l Herald Tribune

Mexico's Spreading Drug Violence - Pamela Starr, LA Times

Will Japan Go Nuclear? - Robyn Lim, Far Eastern Economic Review

Real Clear Markets:

Economic Panics and Politics - John Steele Gordon, The American

Panic Doesn't Mean We've Hit a Bottom - Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch

Downturn Shatters Faith In Stocks - Hamilton & White, Los Angeles Times

A Conversation with Robert Arnott - Jack Hough, SmartMoney

World Awakes From Decoupling Dream - Martin Wolf, Financial Times

3) PR Farce? With 400-600 active smuggling tunnels openly operating, praise for "New U.S. equipment helps Egypt uncover Gaza-Sinai tunnels

#1 One owner, whose tunnel lies within 200 metres of an Egyptian watchtower,
operates 24-hours a day, importing "everything you can imagine".

#2 Most tunnels are located in Rafah, and its mayor, Issa al-Nashar, said
there are now about 400 of them. Other sources, however, estimate the number
is closer to 600

Question: Then why does the media keep on running these items about the
fantastic work being done with the new U.S. equipement for discovering
tunnels?]

Egyptian security officials this week attributed the dramatic rise in the
discovery of tunnels along the Egypt-Gaza Strip border to U.S.-supplied
equipment. Israeli officials also praised Egypt's heightened efforts against
the tunnels, dug by Gaza-based militants to smuggle out weapons and other
contraband.

"New, highly efficient equipment has begun to be used which includes sensors
that assist in uncovering the tunnels," one official told Haaretz.

Israeli government and security officials also praised the rise in Egyptian
law enforcement activity along the border, but emphasized that work to
thwart smuggling must continue.

American experts installed the equipment at the border as part of ongoing
security cooperation between Washington and Cairo.

The Americans had used some of the equipment to thwart smuggling across the
Mexican border, and recently transferred it to the Egyptian army to
strengthen its hold on the Philadelphi Route separating Egypt from the
Strip.

Egyptian officials emphasized that the new results stem not from a change in
their motivation to stem smuggling, but in the tools now available on the
ground


Hamas exploits boom in Gaza smuggling tunnels:


Hamas is receiving a steady revenue licensing illicit tunnels in Gaza's
south to smugglers and business people who are importing fuel and other
items from Egypt to meet shortages created by Israel's blockade of the
Palestinian territory.

Hundreds of tents covering entrances to tunnels - big enough to transport
through everything from cows to industrial-size air-conditioners - have
mushroomed along Gaza's border with Egypt.

Many tunnels are also rigged with plastic pipes, siphoning Egypt's heavily
subsidised fuel into Gaza where drivers have had to resort to running their
cars on cooking oil because Israel cut petrol, diesel and gas supplies to a
bare minimum.

One fuel station operator, who did not want to be named, said that in the
first 19 days of October he imported 313,000 litres (68,860 gallons) of
diesel and 161,500 litres of petrol through the tunnels.

"Every day I send my truck to [the border town of] Rafah," he said, adding
that he was earning 3.5 shekels on every litre of Egyptian fuel compared
with half a shekel on same amount of Israeli fuel.

Israel imposed the blockade to weaken Hamas's control of Gaza after the
Islamist group ousted their more secular rival, Fatah, 15 months ago. While
the siege has brought the territory's economy to a halt, it has done little
to weaken Hamas, which has cashed in on the tunnels' business.

Smuggling has become a lucrative and entrenched part of the economy. Omar
Shaban, a Gaza economist, estimates that smuggling comprises about 90% of
market activity in the territory and is worth around $30m to $40m a month.

He said: "The tunnels are integrated into the economy. We have a new
economic structure now, a new business community."

One owner, whose tunnel lies within 200 metres of an Egyptian watchtower,
operates 24-hours a day, importing "everything you can imagine".

Last month, Hamas began charging tunnel owners a 10,000-shekel annual
licence fee. Most tunnels are located in Rafah, and its mayor, Issa
al-Nashar, said there are now about 400 of them. Other sources, however,
estimate the number is closer to 600 - and that the fees comprise 20% of the
Rafah municipality's revenue.

Nashar said the tunnel owners make $10,000 a day and that he wanted to
charge much more. "But we had a discussion with some of the tunnel owners
and we agreed on 10,000 shekels," he said.

Hamas security forces patrol the tunnels, while the municipality has set up
a committee to collect the fees. Rafah also requires the owners to pay 1,000
shekels for electricity and is now pressuring them to sign contracts
promising to pay up to $40,000 to the families of tunnel workers killed on
the job. Forty people have died working in the sandy, un-reinforced
underground passages so far this year.

In a siege-distorted economy - with an estimated 20% inflation rate, 98% of
industry forced to close and unemployment at 45% in the first six months of
2008 - the majority of ordinary Palestinians are yet to benefit.

Abu Wajdi is one of around 6,000 workers who have flocked to Rafah in search
of a job. He is paid only 900 shekels a month, but says he is risking his
life because he is a "patriot". "We are participating in lifting the siege.
We are trying to fill the market to meet the needs of our people," he said.